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USGS2015

Predictive modelling of habitat use by marine predators with respect to the abundance and depth distribution of pelagic prey

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin species distribution patterns is a fundamental goal in spatial ecology. However, developing predictive models of habitat use is challenging for species that forage in marine environments, as both predators and prey are often highly mobile and difficult to monitor. Consequently, few studies have developed resource selection functions for marine predators based directly on the abundance and distribution of their prey. We analysed contemporaneous data on the diving locations of two seabird species, the shallow-diving Peruvian Booby ( Sula variegata ) and deeper diving Guanay Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax bougainvilliorum ), and the abundance and depth distribution of their main prey, Peruvian anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens ). Based on this unique data set, we developed resource selection functions to test the hypothesis that the probability of seabird diving behaviour at a given location is a function of the relative abundance of prey in the upper water column. For both species, we show that the probability of diving behaviour is mostly explained by the distribution of prey at shallow depths. While the probability of diving behaviour increases sharply with prey abundance at relatively low levels of abundance, support for including abundance in addition to the depth distribution of prey is weak, suggesting that prey abundance was not a major factor determining the location of diving behaviour during the study period. The study thus highlights the importance of the depth distribution of prey for two species of seabird with different diving capabilities. The results complement previous research that points towards the importance of oceanographic processes that enhance the accessibility of prey to seabirds. The implications are that locations where prey is predictably found at accessible depths may be more important for surface foragers, such as seabirds, than locations where prey is predictably abundant. Analysis of the relative importance of abundance and accessibility is essential for the design and evaluation of effective management responses to reduced prey availability for seabirds and other top predators in marine systems.

Gulf of Guinea↗

USGS2009

Concentration-discharge relationships reflect chemostatic characteristics of US catchments

Concentration-discharge relationships have been widely used as clues to the hydrochemical processes that control runoff chemistry. Here we examine concentration-discharge relationships for solutes produced primarily by mineral weathering in 59 geochemically diverse US catchments. We show that these catchments exhibit nearly chemostatic behaviour; their stream concentrations of weathering products such as Ca, Mg, Na, and Si typically vary by factors of only 3 to 20 while discharge varies by several orders of magnitude. Similar patterns are observed at the inter-annual time scale. This behaviour implies that solute concentrations in stream water are not determined by simple dilution of a fixed solute flux by a variable flux of water, and that rates of solute production and/or mobilization must be nearly proportional to water fluxes, both on storm and inter-annual timescales. We compared these catchments' concentration-discharge relationships to the predictions of several simple hydrological and geochemical models. Most of these models can be forced to approximately fit the observed concentration-discharge relationships, but often only by assuming unrealistic or internally inconsistent parameter values. We propose a new model that also fits the data and may be more robust. We suggest possible tests of the new model for future studies. The relative stability of concentration under widely varying discharge may help make aquatic environments habitable. It also implies that fluxes of weathering solutes in streams, and thus fluxes of alkalinity to the oceans, are determined primarily by water fluxes. Thus, hydrology may be a major driver of the ocean-alkalinity feedback regulating climate change. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2013

The relation between invertebrate drift and two primary controls, discharge and benthic densities, in a large regulated river

1. Invertebrate drift is a fundamental process in streams and rivers. Studies from laboratory experiments and small streams have identified numerous extrinsic (e.g. discharge, light intensity, water quality) and intrinsic factors (invertebrate life stage, benthic density, behaviour) that govern invertebrate drift concentrations (# m−3), but the factors that govern invertebrate drift in larger rivers remain poorly understood. For example, while large increases or decreases in discharge can lead to large increases in invertebrate drift, the role of smaller, incremental changes in discharge is poorly described. In addition, while we might expect invertebrate drift concentrations to be proportional to benthic densities (# m−2), the benthic–drift relation has not been rigorously evaluated. 2. Here, we develop a framework for modelling invertebrate drift that is derived from sediment transport studies. We use this framework to guide the analysis of high-resolution data sets of benthic density and drift concentration for four important invertebrate taxa from the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam (mean daily discharge 325 m3 s−1) that were collected over 18 months and include multiple observations within days. Ramping of regulated flows on this river segment provides an experimental treatment that is repeated daily and allowed us to describe the functional relations between invertebrate drift and two primary controls, discharge and benthic densities. 3. Twofold daily variation in discharge resulted in a >10-fold increase in drift concentrations of benthic invertebrates associated with pools and detritus (i.e. Gammarus lacustris and Potamopyrgus antipodarum). In contrast, drift concentrations of sessile blackfly larvae (Simuliium arcticum), which are associated with high-velocity cobble microhabitats, decreased by over 80% as discharge doubled. Drift concentrations of Chironomidae increased proportional to discharge. 4. Drift of all four taxa was positively related to benthic density. Drift concentrations of Gammarus, Potamopyrgus and Chironomidae were proportional to benthic density. Drift concentrations of Simulium were positively related to benthic density, but the benthic–drift relation was less than proportional (i.e. a doubling of benthic density only led to a 40% increase in drift concentrations). 5. Our study demonstrates that invertebrate drift concentrations in the Colorado River are jointly controlled by discharge and benthic densities, but these controls operate at different timescales. Twofold daily variation in discharge associated with hydropeaking was the primary control on within-day variation in invertebrate drift concentrations. In contrast, benthic density, which varied 10- to 1000-fold among sampling dates, depending on the taxa, was the primary control on invertebrate drift concentrations over longer timescales (weeks to months).

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Extreme site fidelity as an optimal strategy in an unpredictable and homogeneous environment

1.Animal site fidelity structures space use, population demography and ultimately gene flow. Understanding the adaptive selection for site fidelity patterns provides a mechanistic understanding to both spatial and population processes. This can be achieved by linking space use with environmental variability (spatial and temporal) and demographic parameters. However, rarely is the environmental context that drives the selection for site fidelity behaviour fully considered. 2. We use ecological theory to understand whether the spatial and temporal variability in breeding site quality can explain the site fidelity behaviour and demographic patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We examined female site fidelity patterns across multiple spatial scales: proximity of consecutive year nest locations, space-use overlap within and across the breeding and brooding seasons, and fidelity to a breeding patch. We also examined the spatial and temporal variability in nest, chick, juvenile and adult survival. 3. We found Gunnison sage-grouse to be site faithful to their breeding patch, area of use within the patch and generally where they nest, suggesting an “Always Stay” site fidelity strategy. This is an optimal evolutionary strategy when site quality is unpredictable. Further, we found limited spatial variability in survival within age groups, suggesting little demographic benefit to moving among patches. We suggest Gunnison sage-grouse site fidelity is driven by the unpredictability of predation in a relatively homogeneous environment, the lack of benefits and likely costs to moving across landscape patches and leaving known lek and breeding/brooding areas. 4. Space use and demography are commonly studied separately. More so, site fidelity patterns are rarely framed in the context of ecological theory, beyond questions related to the win-stay:lose-switch rule. To move beyond describing patterns and understand the adaptive selection driving species movements and their demographic consequences require integrating movement, demography and environmental variability in a synthetic framework. 5. Site fidelity theory provides a coherent framework to simultaneously investigate the spatial and population ecology of animal populations. Using it to frame ecological questions will lead to a more mechanistic understanding of animal movement, spatial population structuring and meta-population dynamics.

Colorado↗

USGS2008

Dolphin swimming: A review

Research into dolphin swimming has historically been guided by false assumptions of ‘effortless’, ‘high-speed’ swimming. These assumptions have instigated the development of drag-reduction hypotheses but tests of these hypotheses have generally had little success. The autecological approach has dominated recent efforts and has been more successful. In this review we summarize results of decades of research efforts to study these creatures. (1) Drag is minimized primarily by the streamlined shape of the body and appendages, with no known contributions from compliant dampening, dermal ridges, secretions, boundary layer heating, or skin folds. All indications are that the boundary layer is turbulent. (2) Muscles for the upstroke and downstroke of swimming dolphins provide approximately equal power. (3) Output force is enhanced by insertions occurring on the long processes of the vertebrae and on the subdermal connective tissue sheath. (4) Measured swimming speeds are lower than previously believed, with maximum reported routine speeds being approximately 3 m/s. (5) Porpoising behaviour appears to be the most energetically conservative manner in which to breathe when swimming at high speed. (6) Riding surf and wind waves involves the balance between the wave slope and the weight of the animal whereas riding the bow wave involves the interaction of the pressure wave in front of a ship and the drag of the dolphin.

Mammal Review↗

USGS2010

Mg isotope constraints on soil pore-fluid chemistry: Evidence from Santa Cruz, California

Mg isotope ratios ( 26 Mg/ 24 Mg) are reported in soil pore-fluids, rain and seawater, grass and smectite from a 90 kyr old soil, developed on an uplifted marine terrace from Santa Cruz, California. Rain water has an invariant 26 Mg/ 24 Mg ratio (expressed as δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg ) at −0.79 ± 0.05‰, identical to seawater δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg . Detrital smectite (from the base of the soil profile, and therefore unweathered) has a δ26Mg"> δ26Mg value of 0.11‰, potentially enriched in 26 Mg by up to 0.3‰ compared to the bulk silicate Earth Mg isotope composition (although within the range of all terrestrial silicates). The soil pore-waters show a continuous profile with depth for δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg , ranging from −0.99‰ near the surface to −0.43‰ at the base of the profile. Shallow pore-waters (<1 m) have δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg values that are similar to, or slightly lower than the rain waters. This implies that the degree of biological cycling of Mg in the pore-waters is relatively small and is quantified as <32%, calculated using the average Mg isotope enrichment factor between grass and rain ( δ26 Mggrass- δ26 Mgrain> δ26 Mggrass- δ26 Mgrain ) of 0.21‰. The deep pore-waters (1–15 m deep) have δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg values that are intermediate between the smectite and rain, ranging from −0.76‰ to −0.43‰, and show a similar trend with depth compared to Sr isotope ratios. The similarity between Sr and Mg isotope ratios confirms that the Mg in the pore-waters can be explained by a mixture between rain and smectite derived Mg, despite the fact that Mg and Sr concentrations may be buffered by the exchangeable reservoir. However, whilst Sr isotope ratios in the pore-waters span almost the complete range between mineral and rain inputs, Mg isotopes compositions are much closer to the rain inputs. If Mg and Sr isotope ratios are controlled uniquely by a mixture, the data can be used to estimate the mineral weathering inputs to the pore-waters, by correcting for the rain inputs. This isotopic correction is compared to the commonly used chloride correction for precipitation inputs. A consistent interpretation is only possible if Mg isotope ratios are fractionated either by the precipitation of a secondary Mg bearing phase, not detected by conventional methods, or selective leaching of 24 Mg from smectite. There is therefore dual control on the Mg isotopic composition of the pore-waters, mixing of two inputs with distinct isotopic compositions, modified by fractionation. The data provide (1) further evidence for Mg isotope fractionation at the surface of the Earth and (2) the first field evidence of Mg isotope fractionation during uptake by natural plants. The coherent behaviour of Mg isotope ratios in soil environments is encouraging for the development of Mg isotope ratios as a quantitative tracer of both weathering inputs of Mg to waters, and the physicochemical processes that cycle Mg, a major cation linked to the carbon cycle, during continental weathering.

California↗

USGS1995

238U-234U-230Th chronometry of Fe-Mn crusts: Growth processes and recovery of thorium isotopic ratios of seawater

Comparison of ( ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> 234 U) excess ⁄ ( 238 U) and ( ( 230 Th 232 Th "> 230 Th ⁄ 232 Th ) activity ratios in oceanic Fe-Mn deposits provides a method for assessing the closed-system behaviour of 238 U- 234 U- 230 Th, as well as variations in the initial uranium and thorium isotopic ratios of the precipitated metal oxides. This approach is illustrated using a Fe-Mn crust from Lotab seamount (Marshall Islands, west equatorial Pacific). Here we report uranium and thorium isotopic compositions in five subsamples from the surface of one large 5 cm diameter botryoid of this crust, and from two depth profiles of the outermost rim of the same botryoid. The decrease of ( ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> 234 U) excess ⁄ ( 238 U) and ( ( 230 Th 232 Th "> 230 Th ⁄ 232 Th ) activity ratio with depth in the two profiles gives mean growth rates, for the last 150 ka, of 7.8 ± 2 mm/Ma and 6.6 ± 1 mm/Ma, respectively. All data points (surface and core samples) but one, define a linear correlation in the Ln ( 230 Th 232 Th − Ln ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> Ln ( ( 230 Th 232 Th "> 230 Th ⁄ 232 Th ) −Ln[ ( ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> 234 U) excess ⁄ ( 238 U) ] diagram. This correlation indicates that for all points the U-Th system remained closed after the Fe-Mn layer precipitated, and that the different samples possessed the same initial Uranium and thorium isotope ratios. Furthermore, these results show that the preserved surface of this Fe-Mn crust may not be the present-day growth surface, and that the thorium and uranium isotopic ratios of seawater in west equatorial Pacific have not changed during the past 150 ka. The initial thorium activity ratio is estimated from the correlation obtained between Ln ( 230 Th 232 Th − Ln ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> Ln ( ( 230 Th 232 Th "> 230 Th ⁄ 232 Th ) −Ln Ln ( 230 Th 232 Th − Ln ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) ">[ ( ( 234 U)excess ( 238 U ) "> 234 U) excess ⁄ ( 238 U) ] .

Lotab Seamount, Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2010

Shear-rate-dependent strength control on the dynamics of rainfall-triggered landslides, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan

A typhoon (Typhoon No. 10) attacked Shikoku Island and the Tyugoku area of Japan in 2004. This typhoon produced a new daily precipitation record of 1317 mm on Shikoku Island and triggered hundreds of landslides in Tokushima Prefecture. One catastrophic landslide was triggered in the Shiraishi area of Kisawa village, and destroyed more than 10 houses while also leaving an unstable block high on the slope. The unstable block kept moving after the event, showing accelerating and decelerating movement during and after rainfall and reaching a displacement of several meters before countermeasures were put into place. To examine the mechanism for this landsliding characteristic, samples (weathered serpentinite) were taken from the field, and their shear behaviours examined using ring shear tests. The test results revealed that the residual shear strength of the samples is positively dependent on the shear rate, which may provide an explanation for the continuous acceleratingdecelerating process of the landsliding. The roughness of the shear surface and the microstructure of the shear zone were measured and observed by laser microscope and SEM techniques in an attempt to clarify the mechanism of shear rate effect on the residual shear strength. Copyright ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS2025

Adaptive management for recreational fisheries decisions in the face of uncertainty

Recreational fisheries management requires making decisions that consider social, economic, and ecological dimensions. The feedbacks among ecological changes and social responses by fishers create complexity and uncertainty. However, uncertainty can impede the integration of ecological and social dimensions, particularly when considering human behavioural responses to management decisions and ecological changes. One of the few ways to reduce these uncertainties is via experimentation at the system level. Adaptive management (and the larger umbrella of decision analysis) provides a framework to implement purposeful management experiments in a structured manner to learn through an iterative decision process, thereby allowing for the reduction in social and ecological uncertainties in response to planned policy interventions. We discuss the theory of adaptive management and conditions for which it is appropriate, as well as the benefits and costs of applying active versus passive adaptive management to reduce social and ecological uncertainties for recreational fisheries. We then provide key examples from previous studies on decisions for zoning in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, stocking decisions that include stakeholder learning in Germany, and decisions for stocking and harvest management in British Columbia, that demonstrate best practices for implementation of adaptive management to reduce uncertainties surrounding human behaviour and other social and ecological objectives related to recreational fisheries.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Long-term video surveillance and automated analyses reveal arousal patterns in groups of hibernating bats

Understanding natural behaviours is essential to determining how animals deal with new threats (e.g. emerging diseases). However, natural behaviours of animals with cryptic lifestyles, like hibernating bats, are often poorly characterized. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an unprecedented disease threatening multiple species of hibernating bats, and pathogen-induced changes to host behaviour may contribute to mortality. To better understand the behaviours of hibernating bats and how they might relate to WNS, we developed new ways of studying hibernation across entire seasons. We used thermal-imaging video surveillance cameras to observe little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ) and Indiana bats ( M. sodalis ) in two caves over multiple winters. We developed new, sharable software to test for autocorrelation and periodicity of arousal signals in recorded video. We processed 740 days (17,760 hr) of video at a rate of >1,000 hr of video imagery in less than 1 hr using a desktop computer with sufficient resolution to detect increases in arousals during midwinter in both species and clear signals of daily arousal periodicity in infected M. sodalis . Our unexpected finding of periodic synchronous group arousals in hibernating bats demonstrate the potential for video methods and suggest some bats may have innate behavioural strategies for coping with WNS. Surveillance video and accessible analysis software make it now practical to investigate long-term behaviours of hibernating bats and other hard-to-study animals.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2007

Water table fluctuations under three riparian land covers, Iowa (USA)

Water table depth is known to play an important role in nitrogen cycling in riparian zones, but little detailed monitoring of water table fluctuations has been reported. In this study, results of high-resolution water table monitoring under three common riparian land covers (forest, cool season grass, corn) were analysed to gain a better understanding of the relation of vegetation cover to water table depth. Three riparian wells located at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge in Jasper County, Iowa, were instrumented with data loggers to record hourly water table behaviour from July to December 2004. Water table depth under the forest showed a diurnal pattern of rising and falling water levels, whereas the grass and corn exhibited a stepped pattern of greater drawdown during the day and less drainage at night. Clear daytime and night-time water table signals were related to daily plant water demands and lateral groundwater flow. Using two estimates of specific yield, hourly and daily ET rates were estimated to be higher under the forest cover than the grass and corn, with peak ET rates in July ranging from 5.02 to 6.32 mm day-1 for forest and from 1.81 to 4.13 mm day-1 for corn and grass. Following plant senescence in October, water table declines were associated with lateral flow to Walnut Creek. The results from this study suggest that consideration should be given to monitoring water table behaviour more frequently to capture daily and seasonal patterns related to riparian vegetation type. Copyright ?? 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2017

Local geology controlled the feasibility of vitrifying Iron Age buildings

During European prehistory, hilltop enclosures made from polydisperse particle-and-block stone walling were exposed to temperatures sufficient to partially melt the constituent stonework, leading to the preservation of glassy walls called ‘vitrified forts’. During vitrification, the granular wall rocks partially melt, sinter viscously and densify, reducing inter-particle porosity. This process is strongly dependent on the solidus temperature, the particle sizes, the temperature-dependence of the viscosity of the evolving liquid phase, as well as the distribution and longevity of heat. Examination of the sintering behaviour of 45 European examples reveals that it is the raw building material that governs the vitrification efficiency. As Iron Age forts were commonly constructed from local stone, we conclude that local geology directly influenced the degree to which buildings were vitrified in the Iron Age. Additionally, we find that vitrification is accompanied by a bulk material strengthening of the aggregates of small sizes, and a partial weakening of larger blocks. We discuss these findings in the context of the debate surrounding the motive of the wall-builders. We conclude that if wall stability by bulk strengthening was the desired effect, then vitrification represents an Iron Age technology that failed to be effective in regions of refractory local geology.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2007

Catch-and-release science and its application to conservation and management of recreational fisheries

Catch-and-release angling is a well-established practice in recreational angler behaviour and fisheries management. Accompanying this is a growing body of catch-and-release research that can be applied to reduce injury, mortality and sublethal alterations in behaviour and physiology. Here, the status of catch-and-release research from a symposium on the topic is summarised. Several general themes emerged including the need to: (1) better connect sublethal assessments to population-level processes; (2) enhance understanding of the variation in fish, fishing practices and gear and their role in catch and release; (3) better understand animal welfare issues related to catch and release; (4) increase the exchange of information on fishing-induced stress, injury and mortality between the recreational and commercial fishing sectors; and (5) improve procedures for measuring and understanding the effect of catch-and-release angling. Through design of better catch-and-release studies, strategies could be developed to further minimise stress, injury and mortality arising from catch-and-release angling. These strategies, when integrated with other fish population and fishery characteristics, can be used by anglers and managers to sustain or enhance recreational fishing resources. ?? 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗

USGS1987

Use of stable sulphur isotopes to monitor directly the behaviour of sulphur in coal during thermal desulphurization

A method has been developed using stable sulphur isotope analyses to monitor the behaviour of sulphur forms in a coal during thermal desulphurization. In this method, the natural stable isotopic composition of the pyritic and organic sulphur in coal is used as a tracer to follow their mobility during the desulphurization process. This tracer method is based on the fact that the isotopic compositions of pyritic and organic sulphur are significantly different in some coals. Isotopic results of pyrolysis experiments at temperatures ranging from 350 to 750 °C indicate that the sulphur released with the volatiles is predominantly organic sulphur. The pyritic sulphur is evolved in significant quantities only when pyrolysis temperatures exceed 500 °C. The presence of pyrite seems to have no effect on the amount of organic sulphur evolved during pyrolysis. The chemical and isotopic mass balances achieved from three different samples of the Herrin (No. 6) coal of the Illinois Basin demonstrate that this stable isotope tracer method is quantitative. The main disadvantage of this tracing technique is that not all coals contain isotopically distinct organic and pyritic sulphur.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky↗

USGS2012

Linking soil moisture balance and source-responsive models to estimate diffuse and preferential components of groundwater recharge

Results are presented of a detailed study into the vadose zone and shallow water table hydrodynamics of a field site in Shropshire, UK. A conceptual model is developed and tested using a range of numerical models, including a modified soil moisture balance model (SMBM) for estimating groundwater recharge in the presence of both diffuse and preferential flow components. Tensiometry reveals that the loamy sand topsoil wets up via macropore flow and subsequent redistribution of moisture into the soil matrix. Recharge does not occur until near-positive pressures are achieved at the top of the sandy glaciofluvial outwash material that underlies the topsoil, about 1 m above the water table. Once this occurs, very rapid water table rises follow. This threshold behaviour is attributed to the vertical discontinuity in the macropore system due to seasonal ploughing of the topsoil, and a lower permeability plough/iron pan restricting matrix flow between the topsoil and the lower outwash deposits. Although the wetting process in the topsoil is complex, a SMBM is shown to be effective in predicting the initiation of preferential flow from the base of the topsoil into the lower outwash horizon. The rapidity of the response at the water table and a water table rise during the summer period while flow gradients in the unsaturated profile were upward suggest that preferential flow is also occurring within the outwash deposits below the topsoil. A variation of the source-responsive model proposed by Nimmo (2010) is shown to reproduce the observed water table dynamics well in the lower outwash horizon when linked to a SMBM that quantifies the potential recharge from the topsoil. The results reveal new insights into preferential flow processes in cultivated soils and provide a useful and practical approach to accounting for preferential flow in studies of groundwater recharge estimation.

Shropshire County↗

USGS2005

Nitrogen controls on ecosystem carbon sequestration: a model implementation and application to Saskatchewan, Canada

A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS1997

Variation in the chemistry of macerals in coals of the Mist Mountain Formation, Elk Valley coalfield, British Columbia, Canada

Variations in elemental and molecular chemistry of macerals, with vitrinite, semifusinite and sporinite in particular, are discussed for the coal seams of the Mist Mountain Formation in the Elk Valley coalfield, in western Canada. In the south Elk Valley coalfield, carbon content of vitrinite oscillates around 85%, and oxygen content increases gradually up section, from seam A to C. In the north Elk Valley coalfield, carbon content in vitrinite shows marked variations (from 70% to 85%) between the samples and is lower than in the south Elk Valley coalfield, which is consistent with a higher maturation level of south Elk Valley coalfield samples. Sulphur content is below 1% in both coalfields. Semifusinite, in general, has higher carbon and lower oxygen content than vitrinite, whereas cutinite has higher carbon content than vitrinite and slightly higher or comparable to that of semifusinite. Functional group distributions show large variations between the seams and these variations are attributed mainly to differences in a primary depositional environment and only occasionally to later weathering and oxidation processes. The results presented in this paper provide also information on the length and branching of aliphatic chains, which, for liptinite macerals is valuable from the oil generation viewpoint, whereas for semifusinite, it may help to understand reactive versus non-reactive behaviour during coking.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2014

Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

Book chapter↗