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USGS2010

Hydrological, geological, and biological site characterization of breccia pipe uranium deposits in Northern Arizona

On July 21, 2009, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar proposed a two-year withdrawal of about 1 million acres of Federal land near the Grand Canyon from future mineral entry. These lands are contained in three parcels: two parcels on U.S. Bureau of Land Management land to the north of the Grand Canyon (North and East Segregation Areas) and one on the Kaibab National Forest south of the Grand Canyon (South Segregation Area). The purpose of the two-year withdrawal is to examine the potential effects of restricting these areas from new mine development for the next 20 years. This proposed withdrawal initiated a period of study during which the effects of the withdrawal must be evaluated. At the direction of the Secretary, the U.S. Geological Survey began a series of short-term studies designed to develop additional information about the possible effects of uranium mining on the natural resources of the region. Dissolved uranium and other major, minor, and trace elements occur naturally in groundwater as the result of precipitation infiltrating from the surface to water-bearing zones and, presumably, to underlying regional aquifers. Discharges from these aquifers occur as seeps and springs throughout the region and provide valuable habitat and water sources for plants and animals. Uranium mining within the watershed may increase the amount of radioactive materials and heavy metals in the surface water and groundwater flowing into Grand Canyon National Park and the Colorado River, and deep mining activities may increase mobilization of uranium through the rock strata into the aquifers. In addition, waste rock and ore from mined areas may be transported away from the mines by wind and runoff.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗

USGS2015

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Polar Biology↗

USGS1994

San Francisco Bay/delta regional monitoring program plankton and water quality pilot study, 1993, in 1993 Annual Report, San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances: San Francisco Estuary Institute

The pilot program described here is motivated by a fundamental principle of the Regional Monitoring Strategy, namely “...the development of data that will provide information on status and trends in the Estuary.” As pointed out in the Strategy, knowledge of status and trends serves two primary purposes: (1) to become aware of or anticipate deleterious conditions in the Estuary, and (2) to assess the effectiveness of management actions. This program addresses these two purposes by focusing on aquatic resources, one of the five key management issues identified by the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and central to the Regional Monitoring Strategy. It also bears on at least two of the other management issues - pollutants and water use. A regional monitoring program must cover many types of resources, including pelagic and benthic channel habitat, shoal habitat, wetlands, river channels, sloughs, and small bays and harbors. This particular program centers on the pelagic channel habitat. However, because of the intimate connection between channel habitat and many or most of these other habitats, channel measurements reflect to some extent the status of and trends in other resource types as well. A primary aim of this program is to provide a high-resolution description of critical aspects of habitat quality, which can be used along with other information (1) to determine the suitability of habitat for aquatic resources; (2) to monitor responsiveness of the habitat to freshwater flow variability; and (3) to provide a context for understanding pollutant distributions. In a single transect, measurements are made throughout the water column at up to 37 stations to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a ) characteristics that influence both chemical and biological reactions. A second aim of the program is to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Phytoplankton production is the major single source of energy for the San Francisco Bay food web. Our measurements of chlorophyll and light penetration can be used to provide an estimate of this production, and therefore the availability of food for organisms at higher trophic levels. Phytoplankton community composition at the species level, which can be a sensitive indicator of habitat change, is also a standard component of this program. Community composition data enable detection of species known to be responsible for harmful or nuisance algal blooms. In 1993, two other indicators were also evaluated, photosynthetic parameters and water column respiration . Photosynthetic parameters partially characterize the physiological state of the phytoplankton and may provide indirect evidence of nutrient deficiency or the effects of pollutants. Water column respiration serves as a simple integrated measure of organic matter metabolism by the plankton, including bacteria, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton. It therefore reflects the total supply of organic matter, whether from photosynthesis, tidal marsh efflux, point sources, or upstream in the Delta. These biological indicators therefore contain much information about the flow of energy into the food web.

California↗

USGS2001

Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Temporal change in biological community structure in the Fountain Creek basin, Colorado, 2001-2008

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to better understand the relations between environmental characteristics and biological communities in the Fountain Creek basin in order to aide water-resource management and guide future monitoring activities. To accomplish this task, environmental (streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) and biological (fish and macroinvertebrate) data were collected annually at 24 sites over a 6- or 8-year period (fish, 2003 to 2008; macroinvertebrates, 2001 to 2008). For this report, these data were first analyzed to determine the presence of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure among years using nonparametric multivariate statistics. Where temporal change in the biological communities was found, these data were further analyzed using additional nonparametric multivariate techniques to determine which subset of selected streamflow, habitat, or water-chemistry variables best described site-specific changes in community structure relative to a gradient of urbanization. This study identified significant directional patterns of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure at 15 of 24 sites in the Fountain Creek basin. At four of these sites, changes in environmental variables were significantly correlated with the concurrent temporal change identified in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure (Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Monument Creek at Bijou Street at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Bear Creek near Colorado Springs, Colo.; Fountain Creek at Security, Colo.). Combinations of environmental variables describing directional temporal change in the biota appeared to be site specific as no single variable dominated the results; however, substrate composition variables (percent substrate composition composed of sand, gravel, or cobble) collectively were present in 80 percent of the environmental variable subsets that were significantly correlated with temporal change in the macroinvertebrate and fish community structure. Other important environmental variables related to temporal change in the biological community structure included those describing channel form (streambank height) and streamflow (normalized annual mean daily flow, high flood-pulse count). Site-specific results from this study were derived from a relatively small number of observations (6 or 8 years of data); therefore, additional years of data may reveal other sites with temporal change in biological community structure, or could define stronger and more consistent linkages between environmental variables and observed temporal change. Likewise current variable subsets could become weaker. Nonetheless, there were several sites where temporal change was detected in this study that could not be explained by the available environmental variables studied herein. Modification of current data-collection activities may be necessary to better understand site-specific temporal relations between biological communities and environmental variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2001

Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2010

Management intensity alters decomposition via biological pathways

Current conceptual models predict that changes in plant litter chemistry during decomposition are primarily regulated by both initial litter chemistry and the stage-or extent-of mass loss. Far less is known about how variations in decomposer community structure (e.g., resulting from different ecosystem management types) could influence litter chemistry during decomposition. Given the recent agricultural intensification occurring globally and the importance of litter chemistry in regulating soil organic matter storage, our objectives were to determine the potential effects of agricultural management on plant litter chemistry and decomposition rates, and to investigate possible links between ecosystem management, litter chemistry and decomposition, and decomposer community composition and activity. We measured decomposition rates, changes in litter chemistry, extracellular enzyme activity, microarthropod communities, and bacterial versus fungal relative abundance in replicated conventional-till, no-till, and old field agricultural sites for both corn and grass litter. After one growing season, litter decomposition under conventional-till was 20% greater than in old field communities. However, decomposition rates in no-till were not significantly different from those in old field or conventional-till sites. After decomposition, grass residue in both conventional- and no-till systems was enriched in total polysaccharides relative to initial litter, while grass litter decomposed in old fields was enriched in nitrogen-bearing compounds and lipids. These differences corresponded with differences in decomposer communities, which also exhibited strong responses to both litter and management type. Overall, our results indicate that agricultural intensification can increase litter decomposition rates, alter decomposer communities, and influence litter chemistry in ways that could have important and long-term effects on soil organic matter dynamics. We suggest that future efforts to more accurately predict soil carbon dynamics under different management regimes may need to explicitly consider how changes in litter chemistry during decomposition are influenced by the specific metabolic capabilities of the extant decomposer communities.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2018

Survey-based assessment of the frequency and potential impacts of recreation on polar bears

Conservation plans for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) typically cannot prescribe management actions to address their primary threat: sea ice loss associated with climate warming. However, there may be other stressors that compound the negative effects of sea ice loss which can be mitigated. For example, Arctic tourism has increased concurrent with polar bears increasingly using terrestrial habitats, which creates the potential for increased human-bear interactions. Little is known about the types, frequency, or potential impacts of recreation. We conducted a Delphi survey among experts who live and work in polar bear habitats, followed by an internet-based survey to which 47 managers, tour operators, community members, and scientists contributed. Participants identified viewing-based recreation as increasing and affecting the largest proportion of bears within subpopulationsthat come ashore during the ice-free season. Survey respondents suggested that negative effects of viewing, including displacement and habituation, could be reduced by restricting human use areas and distances between bears and people. Killing of bears in defense was associated more with camping or hunting for other species than other recreations, and may be mitigated with deterrents. Snowmobiling was the most common recreation across the polar bears' range, and reportedly caused some den abandonment and displacement. However, respondents estimated that <10% of polar bears are exposed to most types of recreation and <50% surmised any negative impacts. Nevertheless, mitigating some of the negative impacts identified in this study may become increasingly important as polar bears cope with sea ice loss.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2015

National Park Service vegetation inventory program: Mississippi National River and Recreation Area, Minnesota

The Mississippi National River and Recreation Area (MISS) vegetation mapping project is an initiative of the National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Inventory Program (VIP) to classify and map vegetation types of MISS. (Note: “MISS” is also referred to as “park” throughout this report.) The goals of the project are to adequately describe and map vegetation types of the park and to provide the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program, resource managers, and biological researchers with useful baseline vegetation information. The MISS vegetation mapping project was officially started in spring 2012, with a scoping meeting wherein partners discussed project objectives, goals, and methods. Major collaborators at this meeting included staff from the NPS MISS, the NPS Great Lakes Network (GLKN), NatureServe, and the USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) was also in attendance. Common to all NPS VIP projects, the three main components of the MISS vegetation mapping project are as follows: (1) vegetation classification, (2) vegetation mapping, and (3) map accuracy assessment (AA). In this report, each of these fundamental components is discussed in detail. With the completion of the MISS vegetation mapping project, all nine park units within the NPS GLKN have received vegetation classification and mapping products from the NPS and USGS vegetation programs. Voyageurs National Park and Isle Royale National Park were completed during 1996–2001 (as program pilot projects) and another six park units were completed during 2004–11, including the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, Grand Portage National Monument, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, Saint Croix National Scenic Riverway, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2001

Seasonal and event-scale variations in solute chemistry for four Sierra Nevada catchments

Hydrobiogeochemical processes controlling stream water chemistry were examined in four small (<5 km2) catchments having contrasting bedrock lithologies in the western Sierra Nevada foothills of California. The Mediterranean climate with its cool/wet and hot/dry cycle produces strong seasonal patterns in hydrological, biological and geochemical processes. Stream water solutes fall into three general groups according to seasonal fluctuation in concentration: Strong, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Cl-, SO42-, base cations); weak, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Si); and rainy season maximum-dry season minimum (NO3- and K+). Solute dynamics in soil solutions and stream water suggest that mixing of drainage waters from bedrock and soil sources regulate stream water solute concentrations. Patterns are further altered by the leaching of solutes accumulated in the soil over the summer period of desiccation and the temporal discoupling of nutrient cycles that occurs due to differences in the timing between vegetation growth (late spring) and leaching (early winter). Solute concentrations are remarkably similar between watersheds with varying bedrock types, with the exception of nitrate, sulfate and bicarbonate. Three watersheds have nitrogen-bearing metasedimentary bedrock that contributes to elevated nitrate concentrations in stream waters. Watersheds whose bedrock includes mineralized veins of sulfide and carbonate minerals similarly have greater sulfate and bicarbonate concentrations in stream water. Hydrobiogeochemical processes are highly dynamic at the seasonal and storm-event temporal scales and spatially complex at the watershed scale making management of stream water chemical composition, such as nitrate concentrations, very challenging. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Landscape conditions predisposing grizzly bears to conflicts on private agricultural lands in the western USA

We used multiple logistic regression to model how different landscape conditions contributed to the probability of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural ranch lands. We used locations of livestock pastures, traditional livestock carcass disposal areas (boneyards), beehives, and wetland-riparian associated vegetation to model the locations of 178 reported human-grizzly bear conflicts along the Rocky Mountain East Front, Montana, USA during 1986-2001. We surveyed 61 livestock producers in the upper Teton watershed of north-central Montana, to collect spatial and temporal data on livestock pastures, boneyards, and beehives for the same period, accounting for changes in livestock and boneyard management and beehive location and protection, for each season. We used 2032 random points to represent the null hypothesis of random location relative to potential explanatory landscape features, and used Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC/AICC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics for model selection. We used a resulting "best" model to map contours of predicted probabilities of conflict, and used this map for verification with an independent dataset of conflicts to provide additional insights regarding the nature of conflicts. The presence of riparian vegetation and distances to spring, summer, and fall sheep or cattle pastures, calving and sheep lambing areas, unmanaged boneyards, and fenced and unfenced beehives were all associated with the likelihood of human-grizzly bear conflicts. Our model suggests that collections of attractants concentrated in high quality bear habitat largely explain broad patterns of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural land in our study area. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2007

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Current management of the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Wyoming↗

USGS2008

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Big Bend National Park, Texas

Big Bend National Park (BBNP), Tex., covers 801,163 acres (3,242 km 2 ) and was established in 1944 through a transfer of land from the State of Texas to the United States. The park is located along a 118-mile (190-km) stretch of the Rio Grande at the United States-Mexico border. The park is in the Chihuahuan Desert, an ecosystem with high mountain ranges and basin environments containing a wide variety of native plants and animals, including more than 1,200 species of plants, more than 450 species of birds, 56 species of reptiles, and 75 species of mammals. In addition, the geology of BBNP, which varies widely from high mountains to broad open lowland basins, also enhances the beauty of the park. For example, the park contains the Chisos Mountains, which are dominantly composed of thick outcrops of Tertiary extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks that reach an altitude of 7,832 ft (2,387 m) and are considered the southernmost mountain range in the United States. Geologic features in BBNP provide opportunities to study the formation of mineral deposits and their environmental effects; the origin and formation of sedimentary and igneous rocks; Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic fossils; and surface and ground water resources. Mineral deposits in and around BBNP contain commodities such as mercury (Hg), uranium (U), and fluorine (F), but of these, the only significant mining has been for Hg. Because of the biological and geological diversity of BBNP, more than 350,000 tourists visit the park each year. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been investigating a number of broad and diverse geologic, geochemical, and geophysical topics in BBNP to provide fundamental information needed by the National Park Service (NPS) to address resource management goals in this park. Scientists from the USGS Mineral Resources and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Programs have been working cooperatively with the NPS and several universities on several research studies within BBNP. Because the last geologic map of the entire BBNP was published in the 1960s, one of the primary goals of the USGS is to provide a new geologic map of BBNP at a scale 1:100,000; this work is ongoing among the USGS, NPS, the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, and university scientists. This USGS Circular summarizes eight studies funded and primarily carried out by the USGS, but it is not intended to be a comprehensive reference of work conducted in BBNP. This Circular describes topical research of the recently completed interdisciplinary USGS project, which has provided information leading to a more complete understanding of the following topics in BBNP: Tectonic and geologic history (Chapters 1, 2, and 3), Age and formation processes of a skarn mineral deposit (Chapter 4), Geoenvironmental effects of abandoned mercury mines (Chapter 5), Age, source, and geochemistry of surface and subsurface water resources (Chapter 6), Isotopic tracing of food sources of bears (Chapter 7), and Geophysical characteristics of surface and subsurface geology (Chapter 8). Additional information and the geochemical and geophysical data of the USGS studies in BBNP are available on line at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/big_bend/index.html.

Texas↗

USGS2011

Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. Canada is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as one of the top 10 world producers during the past decade (2000–2010). The preponderance of this production has been from porphyry-copper-type deposits in the western Canadian Cordillera. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in western Canada was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer (minimally) of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with geologists from the British Columbia Geological Survey, Yukon Geological Survey, and industry consultants. The database of known deposits and significant prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in 89 known porphyry copper (and 2 related copper-bearing polymetallic vein) ore zones, representing 50 porphyry copper deposits, and lists key characteristics of 280 additional porphyry copper and related copper-bearing prospects, as indicated by currently available exploration results, which also are summarized. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through April 2010. The delineation of permissive tracts and probabilistic estimation of resources in undiscovered deposits were done using the USGS three-part mineral resource assessment approach. Permissive tracts are defined in accordance with descriptive models for porphyry copper deposits to include igneous rocks and known deposits and prospects within magmatic arcs related to convergent plate-margin boundary zones. Frequency distributions of total tonnages and average grades of thoroughly explored deposits were used as models for undiscovered deposits and include a new grade and tonnage model for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits in western Canada. Five permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits were delineated: 2 island-arc tracts, 1 tract of transitional, mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities, and 2 continental arc tracts. In permissive tract 003pCu2001, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age in accreted island-arc terranes of the Intermontane belt are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 175,250 km 2 . In 12 known deposits, the total reported tonnage of ore is 8,100 million metric tons (Mt) containing 24.6 Mt copper. An estimated 6.9 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 8.9 Mt copper and a median of 6.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 18.9 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 11 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2002, alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age within the Intermontane accreted island-arc terranes are assessed for alkaline porphyry Cu-Au deposits. The area of this tract is 109,290 km 2 . In 12 known deposits the total reported tonnage of ore is 6,440 Mt, containing 20.9 Mt copper. An estimated 7 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 22 Mt copper and a median of 13 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 19 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 17 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2003, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous age within the accreted Insular terranes of mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 58,360 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported in the 2 known deposits is 1,160 Mt containing 3.17 Mt copper. An estimated 2.3 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 3 Mt copper and a median of 1.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 4.3 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2004, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Jurassic to Eocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 639,500 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 23 known deposits is 6,520 Mt containing 17.9 Mt copper. An estimated 9.6 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 13 Mt copper and a median of 11 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 32.6 known deposits plus the estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 5 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2005, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Oligocene to Pliocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 32,840 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 1 known deposit is 44.8 Mt containing 0.224 Mt copper. An estimated 1.4 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 1.8 Mt copper and a median of 0.72 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 2.4 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this permissive tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . Western Canada has been thoroughly explored for porphyry copper deposits. The total estimated copper contained in known deposits is about 66.8 Mt (based on 2010 data), as compared to a 49 Mt mean of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits and a 34 Mt median of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits. The copper contained in known porphyry copper deposits represents about 58 percent of the total of known and undiscovered porphyry copper deposits (based on mean values). About 86 percent of the increase in estimated copper resources between 1993 and 2009 resulted from the discovery of extensions to known deposits. Nevertheless, exploration for undiscovered deposits continues, especially in and around significant prospects and in parts of permissive tracts that are mostly hidden beneath younger volcanic, sedimentary, or vegetated surficial cover.

British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2024

Potential impacts of an autumn oil spill on polar bears summering on land in northern Alaska

Demand for oil and natural gas continues to increase, leading to the development of remote regions where it is riskier to operate. Many of these regions have had limited development, so understanding potential impacts to wildlife could inform management decisions. In 2017, the United States passed legislation allowing oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska. This area has received limited industrial development and is an important region for polar bears that use the coastline as a travel corridor in autumn. We sought to understand how an autumn near-shore oil spill in the Refuge could affect polar bears. We simulated oil spills from shallow sub-sea pipelines at 3 locations along the coastline of the Refuge and allowed spills to discharge 4800 barrels of oil per day for 6 days, and tracked oil for 50 days. We interacted the trajectories with simulated polar bear movements to estimate how many bears might be exposed. Oil spread quickly along the coastline and during some weeks exposed an average of 10 bears (95 % CI: 0–37) to lethal levels of oil, and 60 (95 % CI: 9–120) to sub-lethal levels. Our results suggest a significant number of polar bears could become oiled from a spill in the region and require decontamination. Therefore, future mitigation strategies could include careful siting of future development and additional capacity to capture and decontaminate bears in the event of an oil spill.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2002

Factors leading to different viability predictions for a grizzly bear data set

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.

Conservation Biology↗