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USGS2010

Temporal change in biological community structure in the Fountain Creek basin, Colorado, 2001-2008

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to better understand the relations between environmental characteristics and biological communities in the Fountain Creek basin in order to aide water-resource management and guide future monitoring activities. To accomplish this task, environmental (streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) and biological (fish and macroinvertebrate) data were collected annually at 24 sites over a 6- or 8-year period (fish, 2003 to 2008; macroinvertebrates, 2001 to 2008). For this report, these data were first analyzed to determine the presence of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure among years using nonparametric multivariate statistics. Where temporal change in the biological communities was found, these data were further analyzed using additional nonparametric multivariate techniques to determine which subset of selected streamflow, habitat, or water-chemistry variables best described site-specific changes in community structure relative to a gradient of urbanization. This study identified significant directional patterns of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure at 15 of 24 sites in the Fountain Creek basin. At four of these sites, changes in environmental variables were significantly correlated with the concurrent temporal change identified in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure (Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Monument Creek at Bijou Street at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Bear Creek near Colorado Springs, Colo.; Fountain Creek at Security, Colo.). Combinations of environmental variables describing directional temporal change in the biota appeared to be site specific as no single variable dominated the results; however, substrate composition variables (percent substrate composition composed of sand, gravel, or cobble) collectively were present in 80 percent of the environmental variable subsets that were significantly correlated with temporal change in the macroinvertebrate and fish community structure. Other important environmental variables related to temporal change in the biological community structure included those describing channel form (streambank height) and streamflow (normalized annual mean daily flow, high flood-pulse count). Site-specific results from this study were derived from a relatively small number of observations (6 or 8 years of data); therefore, additional years of data may reveal other sites with temporal change in biological community structure, or could define stronger and more consistent linkages between environmental variables and observed temporal change. Likewise current variable subsets could become weaker. Nonetheless, there were several sites where temporal change was detected in this study that could not be explained by the available environmental variables studied herein. Modification of current data-collection activities may be necessary to better understand site-specific temporal relations between biological communities and environmental variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2001

Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2010

Management intensity alters decomposition via biological pathways

Current conceptual models predict that changes in plant litter chemistry during decomposition are primarily regulated by both initial litter chemistry and the stage-or extent-of mass loss. Far less is known about how variations in decomposer community structure (e.g., resulting from different ecosystem management types) could influence litter chemistry during decomposition. Given the recent agricultural intensification occurring globally and the importance of litter chemistry in regulating soil organic matter storage, our objectives were to determine the potential effects of agricultural management on plant litter chemistry and decomposition rates, and to investigate possible links between ecosystem management, litter chemistry and decomposition, and decomposer community composition and activity. We measured decomposition rates, changes in litter chemistry, extracellular enzyme activity, microarthropod communities, and bacterial versus fungal relative abundance in replicated conventional-till, no-till, and old field agricultural sites for both corn and grass litter. After one growing season, litter decomposition under conventional-till was 20% greater than in old field communities. However, decomposition rates in no-till were not significantly different from those in old field or conventional-till sites. After decomposition, grass residue in both conventional- and no-till systems was enriched in total polysaccharides relative to initial litter, while grass litter decomposed in old fields was enriched in nitrogen-bearing compounds and lipids. These differences corresponded with differences in decomposer communities, which also exhibited strong responses to both litter and management type. Overall, our results indicate that agricultural intensification can increase litter decomposition rates, alter decomposer communities, and influence litter chemistry in ways that could have important and long-term effects on soil organic matter dynamics. We suggest that future efforts to more accurately predict soil carbon dynamics under different management regimes may need to explicitly consider how changes in litter chemistry during decomposition are influenced by the specific metabolic capabilities of the extant decomposer communities.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2018

Survey-based assessment of the frequency and potential impacts of recreation on polar bears

Conservation plans for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) typically cannot prescribe management actions to address their primary threat: sea ice loss associated with climate warming. However, there may be other stressors that compound the negative effects of sea ice loss which can be mitigated. For example, Arctic tourism has increased concurrent with polar bears increasingly using terrestrial habitats, which creates the potential for increased human-bear interactions. Little is known about the types, frequency, or potential impacts of recreation. We conducted a Delphi survey among experts who live and work in polar bear habitats, followed by an internet-based survey to which 47 managers, tour operators, community members, and scientists contributed. Participants identified viewing-based recreation as increasing and affecting the largest proportion of bears within subpopulationsthat come ashore during the ice-free season. Survey respondents suggested that negative effects of viewing, including displacement and habituation, could be reduced by restricting human use areas and distances between bears and people. Killing of bears in defense was associated more with camping or hunting for other species than other recreations, and may be mitigated with deterrents. Snowmobiling was the most common recreation across the polar bears' range, and reportedly caused some den abandonment and displacement. However, respondents estimated that <10% of polar bears are exposed to most types of recreation and <50% surmised any negative impacts. Nevertheless, mitigating some of the negative impacts identified in this study may become increasingly important as polar bears cope with sea ice loss.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2015

National Park Service vegetation inventory program: Mississippi National River and Recreation Area, Minnesota

The Mississippi National River and Recreation Area (MISS) vegetation mapping project is an initiative of the National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Inventory Program (VIP) to classify and map vegetation types of MISS. (Note: “MISS” is also referred to as “park” throughout this report.) The goals of the project are to adequately describe and map vegetation types of the park and to provide the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program, resource managers, and biological researchers with useful baseline vegetation information. The MISS vegetation mapping project was officially started in spring 2012, with a scoping meeting wherein partners discussed project objectives, goals, and methods. Major collaborators at this meeting included staff from the NPS MISS, the NPS Great Lakes Network (GLKN), NatureServe, and the USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) was also in attendance. Common to all NPS VIP projects, the three main components of the MISS vegetation mapping project are as follows: (1) vegetation classification, (2) vegetation mapping, and (3) map accuracy assessment (AA). In this report, each of these fundamental components is discussed in detail. With the completion of the MISS vegetation mapping project, all nine park units within the NPS GLKN have received vegetation classification and mapping products from the NPS and USGS vegetation programs. Voyageurs National Park and Isle Royale National Park were completed during 1996–2001 (as program pilot projects) and another six park units were completed during 2004–11, including the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, Grand Portage National Monument, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, Saint Croix National Scenic Riverway, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2001

Seasonal and event-scale variations in solute chemistry for four Sierra Nevada catchments

Hydrobiogeochemical processes controlling stream water chemistry were examined in four small (<5 km2) catchments having contrasting bedrock lithologies in the western Sierra Nevada foothills of California. The Mediterranean climate with its cool/wet and hot/dry cycle produces strong seasonal patterns in hydrological, biological and geochemical processes. Stream water solutes fall into three general groups according to seasonal fluctuation in concentration: Strong, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Cl-, SO42-, base cations); weak, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Si); and rainy season maximum-dry season minimum (NO3- and K+). Solute dynamics in soil solutions and stream water suggest that mixing of drainage waters from bedrock and soil sources regulate stream water solute concentrations. Patterns are further altered by the leaching of solutes accumulated in the soil over the summer period of desiccation and the temporal discoupling of nutrient cycles that occurs due to differences in the timing between vegetation growth (late spring) and leaching (early winter). Solute concentrations are remarkably similar between watersheds with varying bedrock types, with the exception of nitrate, sulfate and bicarbonate. Three watersheds have nitrogen-bearing metasedimentary bedrock that contributes to elevated nitrate concentrations in stream waters. Watersheds whose bedrock includes mineralized veins of sulfide and carbonate minerals similarly have greater sulfate and bicarbonate concentrations in stream water. Hydrobiogeochemical processes are highly dynamic at the seasonal and storm-event temporal scales and spatially complex at the watershed scale making management of stream water chemical composition, such as nitrate concentrations, very challenging. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Landscape conditions predisposing grizzly bears to conflicts on private agricultural lands in the western USA

We used multiple logistic regression to model how different landscape conditions contributed to the probability of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural ranch lands. We used locations of livestock pastures, traditional livestock carcass disposal areas (boneyards), beehives, and wetland-riparian associated vegetation to model the locations of 178 reported human-grizzly bear conflicts along the Rocky Mountain East Front, Montana, USA during 1986-2001. We surveyed 61 livestock producers in the upper Teton watershed of north-central Montana, to collect spatial and temporal data on livestock pastures, boneyards, and beehives for the same period, accounting for changes in livestock and boneyard management and beehive location and protection, for each season. We used 2032 random points to represent the null hypothesis of random location relative to potential explanatory landscape features, and used Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC/AICC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics for model selection. We used a resulting "best" model to map contours of predicted probabilities of conflict, and used this map for verification with an independent dataset of conflicts to provide additional insights regarding the nature of conflicts. The presence of riparian vegetation and distances to spring, summer, and fall sheep or cattle pastures, calving and sheep lambing areas, unmanaged boneyards, and fenced and unfenced beehives were all associated with the likelihood of human-grizzly bear conflicts. Our model suggests that collections of attractants concentrated in high quality bear habitat largely explain broad patterns of human-grizzly bear conflicts on private agricultural land in our study area. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2007

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Current management of the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Wyoming↗

USGS2008

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Big Bend National Park, Texas

Big Bend National Park (BBNP), Tex., covers 801,163 acres (3,242 km 2 ) and was established in 1944 through a transfer of land from the State of Texas to the United States. The park is located along a 118-mile (190-km) stretch of the Rio Grande at the United States-Mexico border. The park is in the Chihuahuan Desert, an ecosystem with high mountain ranges and basin environments containing a wide variety of native plants and animals, including more than 1,200 species of plants, more than 450 species of birds, 56 species of reptiles, and 75 species of mammals. In addition, the geology of BBNP, which varies widely from high mountains to broad open lowland basins, also enhances the beauty of the park. For example, the park contains the Chisos Mountains, which are dominantly composed of thick outcrops of Tertiary extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks that reach an altitude of 7,832 ft (2,387 m) and are considered the southernmost mountain range in the United States. Geologic features in BBNP provide opportunities to study the formation of mineral deposits and their environmental effects; the origin and formation of sedimentary and igneous rocks; Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic fossils; and surface and ground water resources. Mineral deposits in and around BBNP contain commodities such as mercury (Hg), uranium (U), and fluorine (F), but of these, the only significant mining has been for Hg. Because of the biological and geological diversity of BBNP, more than 350,000 tourists visit the park each year. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been investigating a number of broad and diverse geologic, geochemical, and geophysical topics in BBNP to provide fundamental information needed by the National Park Service (NPS) to address resource management goals in this park. Scientists from the USGS Mineral Resources and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Programs have been working cooperatively with the NPS and several universities on several research studies within BBNP. Because the last geologic map of the entire BBNP was published in the 1960s, one of the primary goals of the USGS is to provide a new geologic map of BBNP at a scale 1:100,000; this work is ongoing among the USGS, NPS, the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, and university scientists. This USGS Circular summarizes eight studies funded and primarily carried out by the USGS, but it is not intended to be a comprehensive reference of work conducted in BBNP. This Circular describes topical research of the recently completed interdisciplinary USGS project, which has provided information leading to a more complete understanding of the following topics in BBNP: Tectonic and geologic history (Chapters 1, 2, and 3), Age and formation processes of a skarn mineral deposit (Chapter 4), Geoenvironmental effects of abandoned mercury mines (Chapter 5), Age, source, and geochemistry of surface and subsurface water resources (Chapter 6), Isotopic tracing of food sources of bears (Chapter 7), and Geophysical characteristics of surface and subsurface geology (Chapter 8). Additional information and the geochemical and geophysical data of the USGS studies in BBNP are available on line at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/big_bend/index.html.

Texas↗

USGS2011

Porphyry copper assessment of British Columbia and Yukon Territory, Canada: Chapter C in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey does regional, national, and global assessments of resources (mineral, energy, water, biologic) to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources that may be present in undiscovered deposits. Canada is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as one of the top 10 world producers during the past decade (2000–2010). The preponderance of this production has been from porphyry-copper-type deposits in the western Canadian Cordillera. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in western Canada was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer (minimally) of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with geologists from the British Columbia Geological Survey, Yukon Geological Survey, and industry consultants. The database of known deposits and significant prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in 89 known porphyry copper (and 2 related copper-bearing polymetallic vein) ore zones, representing 50 porphyry copper deposits, and lists key characteristics of 280 additional porphyry copper and related copper-bearing prospects, as indicated by currently available exploration results, which also are summarized. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through April 2010. The delineation of permissive tracts and probabilistic estimation of resources in undiscovered deposits were done using the USGS three-part mineral resource assessment approach. Permissive tracts are defined in accordance with descriptive models for porphyry copper deposits to include igneous rocks and known deposits and prospects within magmatic arcs related to convergent plate-margin boundary zones. Frequency distributions of total tonnages and average grades of thoroughly explored deposits were used as models for undiscovered deposits and include a new grade and tonnage model for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits in western Canada. Five permissive tracts for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits were delineated: 2 island-arc tracts, 1 tract of transitional, mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities, and 2 continental arc tracts. In permissive tract 003pCu2001, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age in accreted island-arc terranes of the Intermontane belt are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 175,250 km 2 . In 12 known deposits, the total reported tonnage of ore is 8,100 million metric tons (Mt) containing 24.6 Mt copper. An estimated 6.9 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 8.9 Mt copper and a median of 6.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 18.9 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 11 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2002, alkaline igneous rocks of Middle Triassic to Late Jurassic age within the Intermontane accreted island-arc terranes are assessed for alkaline porphyry Cu-Au deposits. The area of this tract is 109,290 km 2 . In 12 known deposits the total reported tonnage of ore is 6,440 Mt, containing 20.9 Mt copper. An estimated 7 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 22 Mt copper and a median of 13 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 19 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 17 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2003, calc-alkaline igneous rocks of Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous age within the accreted Insular terranes of mixed island-arc and continental arc affinities are assessed for calc-alkaline porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 58,360 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported in the 2 known deposits is 1,160 Mt containing 3.17 Mt copper. An estimated 2.3 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 3 Mt copper and a median of 1.9 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 4.3 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2004, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Jurassic to Eocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 639,500 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 23 known deposits is 6,520 Mt containing 17.9 Mt copper. An estimated 9.6 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 13 Mt copper and a median of 11 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 32.6 known deposits plus the estimated undiscovered deposits in this tract is approximately 5 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . In permissive tract 003pCu2005, calc-alkaline igneous rocks in continental magmatic arcs of Oligocene to Pliocene age are assessed for porphyry Cu±Mo±Au deposits. The area of this tract is 32,840 km 2 . The total tonnage of ore reported for the 1 known deposit is 44.8 Mt containing 0.224 Mt copper. An estimated 1.4 undiscovered deposits contain a calculated mean of 1.8 Mt copper and a median of 0.72 Mt copper. The spatial density for the 2.4 known plus estimated undiscovered deposits in this permissive tract is approximately 7 deposits per 100,000 km 2 . Western Canada has been thoroughly explored for porphyry copper deposits. The total estimated copper contained in known deposits is about 66.8 Mt (based on 2010 data), as compared to a 49 Mt mean of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits and a 34 Mt median of estimated copper in undiscovered deposits. The copper contained in known porphyry copper deposits represents about 58 percent of the total of known and undiscovered porphyry copper deposits (based on mean values). About 86 percent of the increase in estimated copper resources between 1993 and 2009 resulted from the discovery of extensions to known deposits. Nevertheless, exploration for undiscovered deposits continues, especially in and around significant prospects and in parts of permissive tracts that are mostly hidden beneath younger volcanic, sedimentary, or vegetated surficial cover.

British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2024

Potential impacts of an autumn oil spill on polar bears summering on land in northern Alaska

Demand for oil and natural gas continues to increase, leading to the development of remote regions where it is riskier to operate. Many of these regions have had limited development, so understanding potential impacts to wildlife could inform management decisions. In 2017, the United States passed legislation allowing oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska. This area has received limited industrial development and is an important region for polar bears that use the coastline as a travel corridor in autumn. We sought to understand how an autumn near-shore oil spill in the Refuge could affect polar bears. We simulated oil spills from shallow sub-sea pipelines at 3 locations along the coastline of the Refuge and allowed spills to discharge 4800 barrels of oil per day for 6 days, and tracked oil for 50 days. We interacted the trajectories with simulated polar bear movements to estimate how many bears might be exposed. Oil spread quickly along the coastline and during some weeks exposed an average of 10 bears (95 % CI: 0–37) to lethal levels of oil, and 60 (95 % CI: 9–120) to sub-lethal levels. Our results suggest a significant number of polar bears could become oiled from a spill in the region and require decontamination. Therefore, future mitigation strategies could include careful siting of future development and additional capacity to capture and decontaminate bears in the event of an oil spill.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS1999

Defining landscapes suitable for restoration of grizzly bears Ursus arctos in Idaho

Informed management of large carnivores depends on the timely and useful presentation of relevant information. We describe an approach to evaluating carnivore habitat that uses pre-existing qualitative and quantitative information on humans and carnivores to generate coarse-scale maps of habitat suitability, habitat productivity, potential reserves, and areas of potential conflict. We use information pertinent to the contemplated reintroduction of grizzly bears Ursus arctos horribilis into central Idaho to demonstrate our approach. The approach uses measures of human numbers, their estimated distribution, road and trail access, and abundance and quality of bear foods to create standardized indices that are analogues of death and birth rates, respectively; the first subtracted from the second indicates habitat suitability ( HS ). We calibrate HS to sightings of grizzly bears in two ecosystems in northern Idaho and develop an empirical model from these same sightings based on piece-wise treatment of the variables contained in HS . Depending on whether the empirical model or HS is used, we estimate that there is 14 800 km 2 of suitable habitat in two blocks or 37 100 km 2 in one block in central Idaho, respectively. Both approaches show suitable habitat in the current Evaluation Area and in an area of southeastern Idaho centered on the Palisades Reservoir. Areas of highly productive habitat are concentrated in northern and western Idaho and in the Palisades area. Future conflicts between humans and bears are most likely to occur on the western and northern margins of suitable habitat in central Idaho, rather than to the east, where opposition to reintroduction of grizzly bears is currently strongest.

Idaho↗

USGS2018

Estimating freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns of Klamath River Coho Salmon

An area of great importance to resource management and conservation biology in the Klamath Basin is balancing water usage against the life history requirements of threatened Coho Salmon. One tool for addressing this topic is a freshwater dynamics model to forecast Coho Salmon productivity based on environmental inputs. Constructing such a forecasting tool requires local data to quantify the unique life history processes of Coho Salmon inhabiting this region. Here, we describe analytical methods for estimating a series of sub-models, each capturing a different life history process, which will eventually be synchronized as part of a freshwater dynamics model for Klamath River Coho Salmon. Specifically, we draw upon extensive population monitoring data collected in the basin to estimate models of freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns. Our models of freshwater productivity indicated that high summer temperatures and high winter flows can both adversely affect smolt production and that such relationships are more likely in tributaries with naturally regulated flows due to substantial intraannual environmental variation. Our models of overwinter survival demonstrated extensive variability in survival among years, but not among rearing locations, and demonstrated that a substantial proportion (~ 20%) of age-0+ fish emigrate from some rearing sites in the winter. Our models of migration patterns indicated that many age-0+ fish redistribute in the basin during the summer and winter. Further, we observed that these redistributions can entail long migrations in the mainstem where environmental stressors likely play a role in cueing refuge entry. Finally, our models of migration patterns indicated that changes in discharge are important in cueing the seaward migration of smolts, but that the nature of this behavioral response can differ dramatically between tributaries with naturally and artificially regulated flows. Collectively, these analyses demonstrate that environmental variation interacts with most phases of the freshwater life history of Klamath River Coho Salmon and that anthropogenic environmental variation can have a particularly large bearing on productivity.

Arcata Fisheries Technical Report↗

USGS2001

Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose ( Chen canagica ) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous modifications.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the “social carrying capacity for development” – or SK d – for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem “acceptable” within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by −15.9% and −3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2013

Effects of plant phenology and vertical height on accuracy of radio-telemetry locations

The use of very high frequency (VHF) radio-telemetry remains wide-spread in studies of wildlife ecology and management. However, few studies have evaluated the influence of vegetative obstruction on accuracy in differing habitats with varying transmitter types and heights. Using adult and fawn collars at varying heights above the ground (0, 33, 66 and 100 cm) to simulate activities (bedded, feeding and standing) and ages (neonate, juvenile and adult) of deer Odocoileus spp., we collected 5,767 bearings and estimated 1,424 locations (28-30 for each of 48 subsamples) in three habitat types (pasture, grassland and forest), during two stages of vegetative growth (spring and late summer). Bearing error was approximately twice as large at a distance of 900 m for fawn (9.9°) than for adult deer collars (4.9°). Of 12 models developed to explain the variation in location error, the analysis of covariance model (HT*D + C*D + HT*TBA + C*TBA) containing interactions of height of collar above ground (HT), collar type (C), vertical height of understory vegetation (D) and tree basal area (TBA) was the best model (w i = 0.92) and explained ∼ 71% of the variation in location error. Location error was greater for both collar types at 0 and 33 cm above the ground compared to 66 and 100 cm above the ground; however, location error was less for adult than fawn collars. Vegetation metrics influenced location error, which increased with greater vertical height of understory vegetation and tree basal area. Further, interaction of vegetation metrics and categorical variables indicated significant effects on location error. Our results indicate that researchers need to consider study objectives, life history of the study animal, signal strength of collar (collar type), distance from transmitter to receiver, topographical changes in elevation, habitat composition and season when designing telemetry protocols. Bearing distances in forested habitat should be decreased (approximately 23% in our study) compared to bearing distances in open habitat to maintain a consistent bearing error across habitats. Additionally, we believe that field biologists monitoring neonate ungulates for habitat selection should rely on visual locations rather than using VHF-collars and triangulation.

South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Mobile Bay

Mobile Bay is the largest bay found in Alabama’s coastal area (Handley et al., 2007). It was named an Estuary of National Significance in 1995 under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Estuary Program (NEP), and its Comprehensive Conservation Management Plan was completed in 2002. Mobile Bay is 1,070 km 2 (413 miles 2 ) in area and 51 km (32 miles) long, making it the sixth largest estuary in the continental United States (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Its ecosystem provides habitat for more than 300 species of birds, 310 species of fish, 68 species of reptiles, 57 species of mammals, 40 species of amphibians, and 15 species of shrimp (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Mobile Bay lies between the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways (Mobile Bay NEP, 2003). Commercial and residential development and industrial use is heavy in the Mobile Bay area. Although local growth and industrial markets support the Mobile Bay area economy, the resulting environmental damage to the very ecosystem upon which they depend remains a threat to the environment, economy, and population. The Mobile Bay ecosystem boasts high biological diversity and productivity and supports many freshwater and saltwater species of recreational and commercial importance. The great diversity of Mobile Bay reflects the diversity of Alabama, which is home to the largest number of different plant and animal species of all states east of the Mississippi River (Stein, 2002), and is bolstered by the unique climate and geographic conditions surrounding the bay. Freshwater inflow from the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta, ranging from 60,000 to 3,700,000 gallons per second (Wallace, 1996), mixes with saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico, which enters Mobile Bay via wind and tides (Burgan and Engle, 2006). Because of the unique conditions surrounding Mobile Bay, including shallow waters, a dynamic climate, and artificial hydrologic modifications—such as the construction of the Mobile Bay Causeway in the 1920s, which serves as an unintentional barrier between Delta waters north of the Causeway and saline waters south of the Causeway, the salinity of Mobile Bay is highly variable. Mobile Bay receives an average of 165 cm (65 inches) of rain per year from tropical storms, summer thunderstorms, and winter cold fronts (Stout et al., 1998). The climate and geography that have made Mobile Bay so rich in resources have also contributed to the threats surrounding its ecosystem. The extensive amount of rain in Mobile Bay creates large amounts of runoff, polluting the waters with fertilizers, chemicals, sediment, oil, trash, and sewage (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Tourism, ecotourism, recreational and commercial fishing, recreational boating, shipping, and chemical, pulp, and paper production are significant industries in Mobile Bay and the surrounding areas. Despite the approximate \$3 billion and 55,000 jobs these industries bring into the community (Alabama Tourism Department, 2010), the growth, development, and environmental stress they create are major threats to the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Among the nation’s states, Alabama ranks fifth in number of different species (144 endemic species), second in number of extinctions that have already occurred (90 extinct species) and fourth in number of species at risk for extinction (14.8% at risk out of 4,533 total species; Stein, 2002). Twenty-one of these threatened and endangered species are found in Mobile Bay, whose brackish waters provide a nursery area for many species of vertebrates and invertebrates. Some of these species include the Alabama sturgeon, Gulf sturgeon, heavy pigtoe mussel, inflated heel-splitter mussel, West Indian manatee, Alabama beach mouse, Perdido beach mouse, Alabama red-bellied turtle, gopher tortoise, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, green sea turtle, loggerhead sea turtle, eastern indigo snake, flatwoods salamander, piping plover, red-cockaded woodpecker, and wood stork. Habitat loss underlies the decline of some bird species in Mobile Bay, and large mammals such as the red wolf, Florida panther, and Florida black bear are no longer found in the area. However, some rare species, such as the swallow-tailed kite, sandhill crane, and gopher tortoise can still be found (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The value of wetlands in Mobile Bay and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is still being investigated. Although various monetary valuations of wetlands exist, critics remark that undervaluation of wetlands is inevitable (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008) and that estimates often do not place appropriate value on ecological services (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000). Additionally, many estimates account only for anthropogenic values. One estimate concludes that one acre of wetlands performs \$3,000 worth of water purification each year (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). With more than 76,890 hectares (190,000 acres) of wetlands in the Mobile Bay area, that equates to a value exceeding one-half billion dollars every year. Tourism, fishing, boating, production, and shipping are significant industries in the Mobile Bay area. More than 90% of fish landed in recreational and commercial fishing in the bay depend on bay habitat, including wetlands, for life requirements (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). The Port of Mobile is Alabama’s only ocean-ship port (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Baldwin County, on the eastern side of the bay, experienced a population increase of 75% from 1990 to 2007, with an 89% increase in housing units (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Development and industry support the Mobile Bay economy, but they depend on the continued health, sustainability, and production of the water and living resources of the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Wetland loss, along with other forms of environmental degradation, remains a threat to the Mobile Bay ecosystem and Mobile Bay’s socioeconomic foundation.

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