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USGS2024

A systematic review of laboratory investigations into the pathogenesis of avian influenza viruses in wild avifauna of North America

The lack of consolidated information regarding the response of wild bird species to infection with avian influenza virus (AIV) is a challenge to both conservation managers and researchers alike, with related sectors also impacted, such as public health and commercial poultry. Using two independent searches, we reviewed published literature for studies describing wild bird species experimentally infected with avian influenza to assess host species’ relative susceptibility to AIVs. Additionally, we summarize broad-scale parameters for elements such as shedding duration and minimum infectious dose that can be used in transmission modelling efforts. Our synthesis shows that waterfowl (i.e. Anatidae) compose the vast majority of published AIV pathobiology studies, whereas gulls and passerines are less represented in research despite evidence that they also are susceptible and contribute to highly pathogenic avian influenza disease dynamics. This study represents the first comprehensive effort to compile available literature regarding the pathobiology of AIVs in all wild birds in over a decade. This database can now serve as a tool to all researchers, providing generalized estimates of pathobiology parameters for a variety of wild avian families and an opportunity to critically examine and assess what is known and identify where further insight is needed.

Proceeding of the Royal Society B↗

USGS2005

Avian endocrine responses to environmental pollutants

Many environmental contaminants are hazardous to populations of wild birds. Chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides and industrial pollutants are thought to be responsible for population declines of several species of predatory birds through eggshell thinning. Studies have demonstrated that these contaminants have estrogenic potency and may affect the functioning of the gonadal and thyroidal endocrine subsystems. Petroleum crude oil exerts toxicity externally, by oiling of plumage, and internally, by way of ingestion of oil while feeding or preening. Extensive ultrastructural damage to the inner zone of the adrenal, diminished adrenal responsiveness to adrenocorticotrophic hormone, and reduced corticosterone secretion rate suggest that low levels of plasma corticosterone reflect a direct effect of petroleum on the adrenal gland. Suppressive effects of oil on the ovary and decreases in circulating prolactin have been associated with impaired reproductive function. Large-scale field studies of free-living seabirds have confirmed some of the inhibitory effects of oil on reproduction that have been observed in laboratory studies. Organophosphorus insecticides, representing the most widely used class of pesticides in North America, have been shown to impair reproductive function, possibly by altering secretion of luteinizing hormone and progesterone. Relevant areas of future research on the effects of contaminants on avian endocrine function are discussed.

Journal of Experimental Zoology↗

USGS2026

Co-producing coastal bird research on the Gulf Coast through structured decision making (SDM) and constructed value of information (CVoI)

Conservation practitioners face the complex challenge of addressing global biodiversity threats within social-ecological systems with multiple jurisdictions, numerous interest groups, and changing environmental conditions. Bridging the research-to-implementation gap between scientists and managers, which integrates diverse perspectives that represent the variety of considerations impacting management outcomes can help to inform efficient and effective conservation. Avian conservation programs along the U.S. Gulf Coast exemplify these challenges, as management decisions must address diverse threats to declining coastal bird populations across large breeding, wintering, and migratory ranges while facing uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of large-scale strategies. This provides opportunities for improving management through co-produced research with structured decision making (SDM). We present a case study that demonstrates the application of co-production principles and SDM to collaboratively develop high-priority research questions informing effective avian conservation and management. Additionally, we applied a constructed value of information (CVoI) framework to identify and prioritize which uncertainties to reduce and better understand how research questions impact management actions. The integration of SDM’s five-step decision making framework ensured key principles of co-production were met, while co-production enhanced SDM outcomes by incorporating diverse perspectives and knowledge bases. CVoI further allowed participants to collectively determine final high-priority research questions in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Together, these approaches supported co-produced knowledge-generation, strategic hypothesis prioritization, and identification of research questions most likely to improve conservation decisions. This case study from the U.S. Gulf Coast demonstrates how co-produced research through SDM offers a broadly applicable approach for navigating ecological complexity and bridging the research-to-implementation gap in avian conservation.

Gulf Coast↗

USGS2025

Landscape changes elevate the risk of avian influenza virus diversification and emergence in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) persistently threaten wild waterfowl, domestic poultry, and public health. The East Asian–Australasian Flyway plays a crucial role in HPAIV dynamics due to its large populations of migratory waterfowl and poultry. Over recent decades, this flyway has undergone substantial landscape changes, including both losses and gains of waterfowl habitats. These changes can affect waterfowl distributions, increase contact with poultry, and consequently alter ecological conditions that favor avian influenza virus (AIV) evolution. However, limited research has assessed these likely impacts. Here, we integrated empirical data and an individual-based model to simulate AIV transmission in migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, including wild-to-poultry spillover and reassortment dynamics in poultry, across landscapes representing the years 2000 and 2015. We used the reassortment incidence as a proxy for ecological and transmission conditions that support viral diversification and the emergence of novel subtypes. Our simulations show that landscape change reshaped the waterfowl distribution, facilitated bird aggregation at improved habitats, increased coinfection, and raised reassortment rate by 1,593%, indicating a substantially higher potential for viral diversification and emergence. Model-generated risk maps show expanded and increased reassortment risk in southeastern China, the Yellow River Basin, and northeastern China. These findings suggest the importance of landscape change as a driver of potential AIV diversification and subtype emergence. This underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate landscape dynamics, host movement, and viral evolution to better assess and mitigate future risk.

East Asian–Australasian Flyway↗

USGS2014

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2018

Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China

Background A number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China. Methods Faced with limited data, we built species distribution models using a habitat suitability approach for China’s breeding and non-breeding (hereafter, wintering) waterfowl. An extensive review of the literature was used to determine model parameters for habitat modeling. Habitat relationships were implemented in GIS using land cover covariates. Wintering models were validated using waterfowl census data, while breeding models, though developed for many species, were only validated for the one species with sufficient telemetry data available. Results We developed suitability models for 42 waterfowl species (30 breeding and 39 wintering) at 1 km resolution for the extent of China, along with cumulative and genus level species richness maps. Breeding season models showed highest waterfowl suitability in wetlands of the high-elevation west-central plateau and northeastern China. Wintering waterfowl suitability was highest in the lowland regions of southeastern China. Validation measures indicated strong performance in predicting species presence. Comparing our model outputs to China’s protected areas indicated that breeding habitat was generally better covered than wintering habitat, and identified locations for which additional research and protection should be prioritized. Conclusions These suitability models are the first available for many of China’s waterfowl species, and have direct utility to conservation and habitat planning and prioritizing management of critically important areas, providing an example of how this approach may aid others faced with the challenge of addressing conservation issues with little data to inform decision making.

Avian Research↗

USGS2015

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and shortnose suckers based on recoveries of passive integrated transponder tags

We evaluated predation on Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ), both listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), from American white pelicans ( Pelecanus erythrorhynchos ) and double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) nesting at mixed species colonies on Clear Lake Reservoir, CA and Upper Klamath Lake, OR during 2009-2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags that were implanted in suckers, subsequently consumed by pelicans or cormorants, and deposited on the birds’ nesting colonies. Data from PIT tag recoveries were used to estimate predation rates (proportion of available tagged suckers consumed) by birds to evaluate the relative susceptibility of suckers to avian predation in Upper Klamath Basin. Data on the size of pelican and cormorant colonies (number of breeding adults) at Clear Lake and Upper Klamath Lake were also collected and reported in the context of predation on suckers. Results indicate that predation rates varied by sucker species (Lost River, shortnose), sucker age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location (Upper Klamath Lake, Clear Lake), and year (2009-2014), demonstrating that predator-prey interactions in the system were dynamic during the study period. Tagged suckers ranging from 72 mm to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest of the tagged Lost River suckers were susceptible to avian predation. Estimates of minimum, annual predation rates ranged from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available Lost River suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available shortnose suckers during the study period. Of the two colony locations evaluated, predation rates on suckers in Clear Lake were generally higher by birds nesting at mixed-species colonies on Clear Lake. Birds nesting on Clear Lake also commuted over 75 kilometers to forage on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversely, there was no evidence that birds nesting in Upper Klamath Lake foraged on tagged suckers in Clear Lake. Although sample sizes of tagged juvenile suckers were small and limited to fish tagged in Upper Klamath Lake, there was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers was higher than on adult suckers, with annual predate rate estimates on juvenile suckers ranging from 5.7% to 8.4% of available fish. The minimum annual predation rates presented here suggests that avian predation may be a factor limiting recovery of populations of Lost River and shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake. Additional research is needed, however, to better assess the impacts of avian predation on sucker populations by (1) recovering PIT tags in a manner so that the species of avian predator is known (i.e., pelican vs. cormorant), (2) measuring predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities at each colony, (3) increasing the sample of juvenile suckers in the population that are PIT-tagged, and (4) recovering sufficient sample sizes of PIT tags on bird colonies to describe how various biotic and abiotic factors (e.g., fish size and condition, water levels and quality, and other factors) contribute to sucker susceptibility to avian predation in the Upper Klamath Basin.

California, Oregon↗

USGS1987

Bird behavior and mortality in relation to power lines in prairie habitats

Research was conducted to determine the magnitude of avian mortality caused by power transmission lines in prairie habitats during the two spring and two fall migration periods between July 1980 and May 1982. Searches for dead birds were made at least twice weekly during each migration period. Study sites were selected to include 'worst-case' situations involving potentially large concentrations of birds.In total, 633 dead birds were found beneath 9.6 km of power lines. About 81% of the birds were found during fall migration. Removal of birds by scavengers was of minor, although local, importance, and observer error in finding birds was greatest in areas of dense vegetation. Total kill was estimated at 1,332 birds.Data were gathered on more than 7,000 bird flights observed in the vicinity of the power lines. Sixty-eight percent of the birds did not respond to the presence of the power lines. Flaring and climbing over the conductor or overhead ground wire occurred in about 25% of the flights. One hundred nine birds in 82 flocks were observed to collide with a power line. Of these birds, 87% flared to climb over the power line before colliding. The overhead ground wire was responsible for most deaths, as 102 of 109 birds collided with it.Whereas none of the mortality observed was considered to be biologically significant at the particular sites examined, the cumulative effect of mortality sustained from collisions with power lines may be important, particularly to populations of rare or endangered birds.

Technical Report↗

USGS2017

Nest predation risk explains variation in avian clutch size

Questions about the ecological drivers of, and mechanistic constraints on, productivity have driven research on life-history evolution for decades. Resource availability and offspring mortality are considered among the 2 most important influences on the number of offspring per reproductive attempt. We used a factorial experimental design to manipulate food abundance and perceived offspring predation risk in a wild avian population (red-faced warblers; Cardellina rubrifrons ) to identify the mechanistic cause of variation in avian clutch size. Additionally, we tested whether female quality helped explain the extant variation in clutch size. We found no support for the Food Limitation or Female Quality Hypotheses, but we did find support for both predictions of the Nest Predation Risk Hypothesis. Females that experienced an experimentally heightened perception of offspring predation risk responded by laying a smaller clutch than females in the control group. Additionally, predation rates at artificial nests were highest where red-faced warbler clutch size was smallest (at high elevations). Life-history theory predicts that an individual should invest less in reproduction when high nest predation risk reduces the likely benefit from that nesting attempt and, indeed, we found that birds exhibit phenotypic plasticity in clutch size by laying fewer eggs in response to increasing nest predation risk.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2022

The potential of semi-structured citizen science data as a supplement for conservation decision-making: Validating the performance of eBird against targeted avian monitoring efforts

Methods are being developed to capitalize on citizen science data for research and monitoring, but these data are rarely used within established decision-making frameworks of wildlife agencies. Citizen science data are often collected at higher resolution and extent than targeted monitoring programs, and may provide complementary information. Here, we demonstrate that carefully filtered semi-structured citizen science observations, when paired with targeted survey data, can produce ecological predictions at higher resolution and extent than targeted surveys alone, and both datasets can represent complementary aspects of species' ecology. We present case studies demonstrating how citizen science data can enhance or supplement decision-making of government and conservation organizations. First, we show how the continuous spatial coverage of citizen science projects, when coupled with targeted surveys, can improve estimates of metrics used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in regulatory processes to estimate population size, and inform take limits of federally managed species nationwide. Second, we show that the spatial coverage of citizen science accommodates dynamic avian space use patterns during key times of the year, relative to standardized monitoring protocols carried out by the Illinois Natural History Survey. Lastly, we demonstrate that citizen science information can replicate estimates of migratory chronologies for the Illinois Natural History Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for some waterfowl species, and in some contexts can supplement missing data on abundance. These findings illustrate the value of integrating validated information from semi-structured citizen science into the current evidence base used to justify, inform, and evaluate conservation decision-making.

California, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri↗

USGS2024

The potential of remote sensing for improved infectious disease ecology research and practice

Outbreaks of Covid-19 in humans, Dutch elm disease in forests, and highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds and poultry highlight the disruptive impacts of emerging infectious diseases on public health, ecosystems, and economies. Infectious disease dynamics often depend on environmental conditions that drive occurrence, transmission, and outbreaks. Remote sensing can contribute to infectious disease research and management by providing standardized environmental data across broad spatial and temporal extents, often at no cost to the user. Here, we 1) conduct a systematic review of primary literature to quantify current uses of remote sensing in disease ecology and 2) synthesize qualitative information to identify opportunities for further integration of remote sensing into disease ecology. We identify that modern advances in airborne remote sensing are promoting early detection of forest pathogens and that satellite data is contributing to the study of geographically widespread human diseases. We discuss opportunities for increased use of data products that characterize vegetation, surface water, and soil; provide data at high spatio-temporal and spectral resolutions; and quantify uncertainty in measurements. Additionally, combining remote sensing with animal movement telemetry can provide novel insights into wildlife disease. Integrating these opportunities will advance research and management of infectious diseases.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2008

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS1987

Distribution and effects of acidic deposition on wildlife and ecosystems

Acidic deposition occurs over most of the United States and the deposition patterns and theoretical vulnerabilities of aquatic ecosystems to chemical changes can be delineated, but few data exist on concomitant biological effects. Hypothetical direct effects are limited primarily to toxicity of various heavy metals mobilized at reduced pH. Results of studies in Scandinavia suggest that aluminum interferes with avian reproduction near acidified lakes. Some amphibian populations located on acid-vulnerable substrates may be adversely affected by reduced pH in the vernal pools used for egg laying and larval growth. Indirect effects on populations are difficult to detect because few historical data exist for wildlife populations and trophic relationships in vulnerable areas. Current research in the U.S.A. focuses on measuring habitat characteristics, food availability, and avian use of vulnerable wetland habitats. Results of Scandinavian studies suggest that some species of waterfowl may prefer acidified, I fish-free habitats because invertebrates essential for meeting nutritional requirements are more easily obtained in the absence of competition from fish. However, avian species dependent on fish would be absent from these habitats. Alteration of either the vegetative structure or primary productivity of wetlands might indirectly affect avian populations by causing decreased invertebrate productivity and consequent food limitations for birds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Microanatomy of passerine hard-cornified tissues: Beak and claw structure of the black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus)

The microanatomy of healthy beaks and claws in passerine birds has not been well described in the literature, despite the importance of these structures in avian life. Histological processing of hard‐cornified tissues is notoriously challenging and only a few reports on effective techniques have been published. An emerging epizootic of beak deformities among wild birds in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest region of North America recently highlighted the need for additional baseline information about avian hard‐cornified structures. In this study, we examine the beak and claw of the Black‐capped Chickadee ( Poecile atricapillus ), a common North American passerine that is affected by what has been described as “avian keratin disorder.” We use light and scanning electron microscopy and high‐magnification radiography to document the healthy microanatomy of these tissues and identify features of functional importance. We also describe detailed methods for histological processing of avian hard‐cornified structures and discuss the utility of special stains. Results from this study will assist in future research on the functional anatomy and pathology of hard‐cornified structures and will provide a necessary reference for ongoing investigations of avian keratin disorder in Black‐capped Chickadees and other wild passerine species.

Journal of Morphology↗

USGS2003

Establishing appropriate measures for monitoring aging in birds: comparing short and long lived species

In order to reveal patterns of reproductive aging in birds we focus on a short lived species, the Japanese quail and the American kestrel, which has a life span of medium length. Quail have been studied extensively in the laboratory as models for understanding avian endocrinology and behavior, and as a subject for toxicological research and testing. In the lab, Japanese quail show age-related deterioration in endocrine, behavioral, and sensory system responses; the American kestrel is relatively long lived and shows moderate evidence of senescence in the oldest birds. Using data collected from captive kestrels at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, a database was designed to document selected parameters over the life cycle of the kestrels. Life table data collated from many species indicate that longer lived species of birds show senescence in survival ability but this pattern has not been established for reproductive function. We suggest that useful comparisons among species can be made by identifying stages in reproductive life history, organized on a relative time scale. Preliminary data from quail and kestrels, admittedly only two species, do not yet indicate a pattern of greater reproductive senescence in longer-lived birds.

Experimental Gerontology↗

USGS2009

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Domoic acid and saxitoxin in seabirds in the United States between 2007 and 2018

As harmful algal blooms (HABs) increase in magnitude and duration worldwide, they are becoming an expanding threat to marine wildlife. Over the past decade, blooms of algae that produce the neurotoxins domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxin (STX) and documented concurrent seabird mortality events have increased bicoastally in the United States. We conducted a retrospective analysis of HAB related mortality events in California, Washington, and Rhode Island between 2007 and 2018 involving 12 species of seabirds, to document the levels, ranges, and patterns of DA and STX in eight sample types (kidney, liver, stomach, intestinal, cloacal, cecal contents, bile, blood) collected from birds during these events. Samples ( n = 182 ) from 83 birds were examined for DA ( n = 135) or STX ( n = 17) or both toxins simultaneously ( n = 30), using ELISA or LCMS at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA-NMFS) Wildlife Algal-toxin Research and Response Network (WARRN-West) or the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC). DA or STX was detected in seven of the sample types with STX below the minimum detection limit in blood for the three samples tested. DA was found in 70% and STX was found in 23% of all tested samples. The ranges of detectable levels of DA and STX in all samples were 0.65–681,190.00 ng g −1 and 2.00–20.95 ng g −1 , respectively. Cloacal contents from a Pacific loon ( Gavia pacifica ) collected in 2017 from Ventura County, California, had the highest maximum level of DA for all samples and species tested in this study. The highest level of STX for all samples and species was detected in the bile of a northern fulmar ( Fulmarus glacialis ) collected in 2018 from San Luis Obispo County, California. DA detections were consistently found in gastrointestinal samples, liver, bile, and kidney, whereas STX detections were most frequently seen in liver and bile samples. Co-occurring HAB toxins (DA and STX) were detected in white-winged scoters ( Melanitta deglandi ) in 2009, a Brandt's cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) in 2015, and a northern fulmar and common murre ( Uria aalge ) in 2018. This article provides DA and STX tissue concentrations and patterns in avian samples and shows the utility of various sample types for the detection of HAB toxins. Future research to understand the pharmacodynamics of these toxins in avian species and to establish lethal doses in various bird species would be beneficial.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2015

Statistical guidelines for assessing marine avian hotspots and coldspots: A case study on wind energy development in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean

Estimating patterns of habitat use is challenging for marine avian species because seabirds tend to aggregate in large groups and it can be difficult to locate both individuals and groups in vast marine environments. We developed an approach to estimate the statistical power of discrete survey events to identify species-specific hotspots and coldspots of long-term seabird abundance in marine environments. We illustrate our approach using historical seabird data from survey transects in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), an area that has been divided into “lease blocks” for proposed offshore wind energy development. For our power analysis, we examined whether discrete lease blocks within the region could be defined as hotspots (3 × mean abundance in the OCS) or coldspots (1/3 ×) for individual species within a given season. For each of 74 species/season combinations, we determined which of eight candidate statistical distributions (ranging in their degree of skewedness) best fit the count data. We then used the selected distribution and estimates of regional prevalence to calculate and map statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and estimate the p -value from Monte Carlo significance tests that specific lease blocks are in fact hotspots or coldspots relative to regional average abundance. The power to detect species-specific hotspots was higher than that of coldspots for most species because species-specific prevalence was relatively low (mean: 0.111; SD: 0.110). The number of surveys required for adequate power (> 0.6) was large for most species (tens to hundreds) using this hotspot definition. Regulators may need to accept higher proportional effect sizes, combine species into groups, and/or broaden the spatial scale by combining lease blocks in order to determine optimal placement of wind farms. Our power analysis approach provides a general framework for both retrospective analyses and future avian survey design and is applicable to a broad range of research and conservation problems.

U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf↗