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USGS2025

Soil-microbial communities respond less than plant communities to synthetic- or bio-herbicides applied to address the exotic grass-fire cycle in rangelands

The exotic grass-fire cycle is degrading semiarid rangelands, such as the vast areas of shrub-steppe in North America now invaded by fire-promoting cheatgrass. Chemical- or bio-herbicides are sprayed onto soils to inhibit the invaders, but information on chemical- or bio-herbicide impacts to soil microbial communities is limited. We asked how the soil-microbiome responded to the bioherbicide Pseudomonas fluorescens strain ACK55 in comparison to the separate and combined effects of a conventional pre-emergent chemical herbicide, imazapic, in two cheatgrass-invaded sagebrush-steppe sites. First-year microbial responses were evaluated using targeted sequencing of the 16S and LSU rRNA genes for bacteria+archaea and fungi, respectively, and were related to plant-community responses. A strong cheatgrass reduction with imazapic at one site was accompanied by a small shift in bacteria+archaea (16S) community composition with no effect on microbial alpha diversity, and this shift was small in comparison to natural microbiome variation between sites. ACK55 was not detected in soil a year after application, and it caused only transient and marginally significant reductions in annual grass cover accompanied by small reductions in soil fungi species richness. Full-length sequencing of the ACK55 16S rRNA gene and phylogenetic analyses revealed that ACK55 is more likely P. salmonii than P. fluorescens . Knowledge gaps remain on the duration and consequences of microbial-community shifts with imazapic and why molecular analyses showed ACK55 did not persist in soils. Confusion regarding microbial biopesticides can result where isolation, effectiveness testing, commercial release, and regulation are not guided by molecular taxonomic analyses.

Idaho↗

USGS2019

Review: Endophytic microbes and their potential applications in crop management

Endophytes are microbes (mostly bacteria and fungi) present in plants. Endophytic microbes are often functional in that they may carry nutrients from the soil into plants, modulate plant development, increase stress tolerance of plants, suppress virulence in pathogens, increase disease resistance in plants, and suppress development of competitor plant species. Endophytic microbes have been shown: 1) obtain nutrients in soils and transfer nutrients to plants in the rhizophagy cycle and other nutrient‐transfer symbioses; 2) increase plant growth and development; 3) reduce oxidative stress of hosts; 4) protect plants from disease; 5) deter feeding by herbivores; and 6) suppress growth of competitor plant species. Because of the effective functions of endophytic microbes, we suggest that endophytic microbes may significantly reduce use of agrochemicals (fertilizers, fungicides, insecticides, and herbicides) in the cultivation of crop plants. The loss of endophytic microbes from crop plants during domestication and long‐term cultivation could be remedied by transfer of endophytes from wild relatives of crops to crop species. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reduce the efficiency of the rhizophagy cycle due to repression of reactive oxygen used to extract nutrients from microbes in roots.

Pest Management Science↗

USGS2016

Transport of atrazine and dicamba through silt and loam soils

The objectives of this research were to determine the role of preferential flow paths in the transport of atrazine (2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine) and dicamba (3-6-dichloro-2-methoxybenzoic acid) through silt and loam soils overlying the High Plains aquifer in Nebraska. In a previous study, 3 of 6 study areas demonstrated high percentages of macropores; those three areas were used in this study for analysis of chemical transport. As a subsequent part of the study, 12 intact soil cores (30-cm diameter by 40-cm height), were excavated sequentially, two from each of the following depths: 0-40cm and 40-80cm. These cores were used to study preferential flow characteristics using dye staining and to determine hydraulic properties. Two undisturbed experimental field plots, each with a 3-m2 surface area, were installed in three study areas in Nebraska. Each was instrumented with suction lysimeters and tensiometers at depths of 10cm to 80cm in 10-cm increments. Additionally, each plot was planted with corn (Zea mays). A neutron probe access tube was installed in each plot to determine soil w ater content at 15-cm intervals. All plots were enclosed w ith a raised frame (of 8-cm height) to prevent surface runoff. All suction lysimeters were purged monthly for three months and were sampled immediately prior to pre-plant herbicide application to obtain background chemical concentrations. Atrazine and dicamba moved rapidly through the soil, but only after a heavy rainfall event, probably owing to the presence of preferential flow paths and lack of microbial degradation in these soil areas. Staining of laboratory cores showed a positive correlation between the percent area stained by depth and the subsequent breakthrough of Br- in the laboratory and leaching of field-applied herbicides owing to large rainfall events. Suction lysimeter samples in the field showed increases in concentrations of herbicides at depths where laboratory data indicated greater percentages of what appeared to be preferential flow paths. Concentrations of atrazine and dicamba exceeding 0.30 and 0.05µg m1-1 were observed at depths of 10-30cm and 50-70cm after two months following heavy rainfall events. It appears from the laboratory experiment that preferential flow paths were a significant factor in transport of atrazine and dicamba.

Nebraska↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2005

Plant invaders, global change and landscape restoration

Modifications in land uses, technology, transportation and biogeochemical cycles currently influence the spread of organisms by reducing the barriers that once restricted their movements. We provide an overview of the spatial and temporal extent for agents of environmental change (land and disturbance transformations, biogeochemical modifications, biotic additions and losses) and highlight those that strongly influence rangeland ecosystems. Restoration may provide a mechanism for ameliorating the impacts of invasive species, but applications of restoration practices over large scales, e.g. ecoregions, will yield benefits earlier when the landscape is prioritised by criteria that identify locations where critical restoration species can grow and where success will be high. We used the Great Basin, USA as our region of interest where the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), dominates millions of hectares. A landscape-level restoration model for sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata and ssp. wyomingensis) was developed to meet the goal of establishing priority habitat for wildlife. This approach could be used in long-range planning of rangeland ecosystems where funds and labour for restoration projects may vary annually. Copyright ?? NISC Pty Ltd.

African Journal of Range & Forage Science↗

USGS2019

A review of machine learning applications to coastal sediment transport and morphodynamics

A range of computer science methods under the heading of machine learning (ML) enables the extraction of insight and quantitative relationships from multidimensional datasets. Here, we review some common ML methods and their application to studies of coastal morphodynamics and sediment transport. We examine aspects of ‘what’ and ‘why’ ML methods contribute, such as ‘what’ science problems ML tools have been used to address, ‘what’ was learned when using ML, and ‘why’ authors used ML methods. We find a variety of research questions have been addressed, ranging from small-scale predictions of sediment transport to larger-scale sand bar morphodynamics and coastal overwash on a developed island. We find various reasons justify the use of ML, including maximize predictability, emulation of model components, smooth and continuous nonlinear regression through data, and explicit inclusion of uncertainty. Overall the expanding use of ML has allowed for an expanding set of questions to be addressed. After reviewing the studies we outline a set of ‘best practices’ for coastal researchers using machine learning methods. Finally we suggest possible areas for future research, including the use of novel machine learning techniques and exploring ‘open data’ that is becoming increasingly available.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2021

Widespread use of the nitrification inhibitor nitrapyrin: Assessing benefits and costs to agriculture, ecosystems, and environmental health

Agricultural production and associated applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizers have increased dramatically in the last century, and current projections to 2050 show that demands will continue to increase as the human population grows. Applied in both organic and inorganic fertilizer forms, N is an essential nutrient in crop productivity. Increased fertilizer applications, however, create the potential for more N loss before plant uptake. One strategy for minimizing N loss is the use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers, fortified with a nitrification inhibitor, such as nitrapyrin. In soils and water, nitrapyrin inhibits the activity of ammonia monooxygenase, a microbial enzyme that catalyzes the first step of nitrification from ammonium to nitrite. Potential benefits of using nitrification inhibitors range from reduced nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions to increased crop yield. The extent of these benefits, however, depends on environmental conditions and management practices. Thus, such benefits are not always realized. Additionally, nitrapyrin has been shown to transport off-field, and it is unknown what effects environmental nitrapyrin could have on nontarget organisms and the ecological nitrogen cycle. Here, we review the agronomic and environmental benefits and costs of nitrapyrin use and present a series of research questions and considerations to be addressed with future nitrification inhibitor research.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2012

Applications of fluorescence spectroscopy for predicting percent wastewater in an urban stream

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a significant organic carbon reservoir in many ecosystems, and its characteristics and sources determine many aspects of ecosystem health and water quality. Fluorescence spectroscopy methods can quantify and characterize the subset of the DOC pool that can absorb and re-emit electromagnetic energy as fluorescence and thus provide a rapid technique for environmental monitoring of DOC in lakes and rivers. Using high resolution fluorescence techniques, we characterized DOC in the Tualatin River watershed near Portland, Oregon, and identified fluorescence parameters associated with effluent from two wastewater treatment plants and samples from sites within and outside the urban region. Using a variety of statistical approaches, we developed and validated a multivariate linear regression model to predict the amount of wastewater in the river as a function of the relative abundance of specific fluorescence excitation/emission pairs. The model was tested with independent data and predicts the percentage of wastewater in a sample within 80% confidence. Model results can be used to develop in situ instrumentation, inform monitoring programs, and develop additional water quality indicators for aquatic systems.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Occurrence, temporal variation, and estrogenic burden of five parabens in sewage sludge collected across the United States

Five parabens used as preservatives in pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were measured in sewage sludges collected at 14 U.S. wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located in nine states. Detected concentration ranges (ng/g, dry weight) and frequencies were as follows: methyl paraben (15.9 to 203.0; 100%), propyl paraben (0.5 to 7.7; 100%), ethyl paraben (< 0.6 to 2.6; 63%), butyl paraben (< 0.4 to 4.3; 42%) and benzyl paraben (< 0.4 to 3.3; 26%). The estrogenicity inherent to the sum of parabens detected in sewage sludge (ranging from 10.1 to 500.1 pg/kg 17 β- estradiol equivalents) was insignificant when compared to the 10 6 -times higher value calculated for natural estrogens reported in the literature to occur in sewage sludge. Temporal monitoring at one WWTP provided insights into temporal and seasonal variations in paraben concentrations. This is the first report on the occurrence of five parabens in sewage sludges from across the U.S., and internationally, the first on temporal variations of paraben levels in sewage sludge. Study results will help to inform the risk assessment of sewage sludge destined for land application (biosolids).

Arizona, Indiana, Florida, Maryland, Montana, New ↗

USGS2015

Reducing soluble phosphorus in dairy effluents through application of mine drainage residuals

Three different dairy manure wastewater effluent samples were amended with mine drainage residuals (MDR) to evaluate the suitability of MDR for sequestration of phosphorus (P). Geochemical modeling of the manure wastewater compositions indicated that partially soluble P-bearing minerals including hydroxyapatite, octacalcium phosphate, and vivianite were all oversaturated in each of the manure wastewater samples. Initial MDR amendment test results indicated that these partially soluble P minerals suspended in the wastewater replenished P in the water phase as it was sorbed by the MDR samples. Further investigations revealed that the MDR samples were effective in decreasing soluble P when the amended manure was tested using the water-extractable P procedure. Under these conditions, up to 90 percent of the soluble P in the manure was converted to a sorbed, water-insoluble state. Water contamination and large-scale validation tests of the process were also conducted.

Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis↗

USGS2003

Environmental fate of roxarsone in poultry litter. Part II. Mobility of arsenic in soils amended with poultry litter

Poultry litter often contains arsenic as a result of organo-arsenical feed additives. When the poultry litter is applied to agricultural fields, the arsenic is released to the environment and may result in increased arsenic in surface and groundwater and increased uptake by plants. The release of arsenic from poultry litter, litter-amended soils, and soils without litter amendment was examined by extraction with water and strong acids (HCI and HN03). The extracts were analyzed for As, C, P, Cu, Zn, and Fe. Copper, zinc, and iron are also poultry feed additives. Soils with a known history of litter application and controlled application rate of arsenic-containing poultry litter were obtained from the University of Maryland Agricultural Experiment Station. Soils from fields with long-term application of poultry litter were obtained from a tilled field on the Delmarva Peninsula (MD) and an untilled Oklahoma pasture. Samples from an adjacent forest or nearby pasture that had no history of litter application were used as controls. Depth profiles were sampled for the Oklahoma pasture soils. Analysis of the poultry litter showed that 75% of the arsenic was readily soluble in water. Extraction of soils shows that weakly bound arsenic mobilized by water correlates positively with C, P, Cu, and Zn in amended fields and appears to come primarily from the litter. Strongly bound arsenic correlates positively with Fe in amended fields and suggests sorption or coprecipitation of As and Fe in the soil column.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2005

Modern pollen data from North America and Greenland for multi-scale paleoenvironmental applications

The modern pollen network in North America and Greenland is presented as a database for use in quantitative calibration studies and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The georeferenced database includes 4634 samples from all regions of the continent and 134 pollen taxa that range from ubiquitous to regionally diagnostic taxa. Climate data and vegetation characteristics were assigned to every site. Automated and manual procedures were used to verify the accuracy of geographic coordinates and identify duplicate records among datasets, incomplete pollen sums, and other potential errors. Data are currently available for almost all of North America, with variable density. Pollen taxonomic diversity, as measured by the Shannon-Weiner coefficient, varies as a function of location, as some vegetation regions are dominated by one or two major pollen producers, while other regions have a more even composition of pollen taxa. Squared-chord distances computed between samples show that most modern pollen samples find analogues within their own vegetation zone. Both temperature and precipitation inferred from best analogues are highly correlated with observed values but temperature exhibits the strongest relation. Maps of the contemporary distribution of several pollen types in relation to the range of the plant taxon illustrate the correspondence between plant and pollen ranges. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2004

Hydrologic processes in deep vadose zones in interdrainage arid environments

A unifying theory for the hydrology of desert vadose zones is particularly timely considering the rising population and water stresses in arid and semiarid regions. Conventional models cannot reconcile the apparent discrepancy between upward flow indicated by hydraulic gradient data and downward flow suggested by environmental tracer data in deep vadose zone profiles. A conceptual model described here explains both hydraulic and tracer data remarkably well by incorporating the hydrologic role of desert plants that encroached former juniper woodland 10 to 15 thousand years ago in the southwestern United States. Vapor transport also plays an important role in redistributing moisture through deep soils, particularly in coarse-grained sediments. Application of the conceptual model to several interdrainage arid settings reproduces measured matric potentials and chloride accumulation by simulating the transition from downward flow to upward flow just below the root zone initiated by climate and vegetation change. Model results indicate a slow hydraulic drying response in deep vadose zones that enables matric potential profiles to be used to distinguish whether precipitation episodically percolated below the root zone or was completely removed via evapotranspiration during the majority of the Holocene. Recharge declined dramatically during the Holocene in interdrainage basin floor settings of arid and semiarid basins. Current flux estimates across the water table in these environmental settings, are on the order of 0.01 to 0.1 mm yr -1 and may be recharge (downward) or discharge (upward) depending on vadose zone characteristics, such as soil texture, geothermal gradient, and water table depth. In summary, diffuse recharge through the basin floor probably contributes only minimally to the total recharge in arid and semiarid basins.

Water Science and Application↗

USGS2017

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

U.S Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2015

Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗

USGS2018

Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications

Executive Summary Natural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or compromised economic activity and threats to national security. They also can have adverse environmental, social, economic, and health effects that extend well beyond the immediate area, sometimes with global implications. Changes in population growth, climate, and urbanization may exacerbate hazard impacts. Because of the potential severity of a single hazard event, reducing risk—the potential loss of societally important assets caused by these hazards—is a high priority for everyone, including policy makers, community members, emergency managers, resource managers, utility operators, business owners, and planners. These stakeholders demand usable, user-centric information to support decisions for planning a resilient future and for responding to and recovering from unanticipated events in more adaptable and cost-effective ways. Meeting this demand requires maximizing the use of environmental observations; hazards science; and research on communications, social stressors, and human behavior to deliver risk information in forms that are accessible by decision makers and the public alike. To achieve this, scientists and stakeholders must collaborate to match community needs with actionable insights, research, products, and tools, using advances in technology to improve information discovery and delivery.

Circular↗

USGS2019

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗