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Results for “American Journal of Climate Change”

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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Connectivity of streams and wetlands to downstream waters: An integrated systems framework

Interest in connectivity has increased in the aquatic sciences, partly because of its relevance to the Clean Water Act. This paper has two objectives: (1) provide a framework to understand hydrological, chemical, and biological connectivity, focusing on how headwater streams and wetlands connect to and contribute to rivers; and (2) briefly review methods to quantify hydrological and chemical connectivity. Streams and wetlands affect river structure and function by altering material and biological fluxes to the river; this depends on two factors: (1) functions within streams and wetlands that affect material fluxes; and (2) connectivity (or isolation) from streams and wetlands to rivers that allows (or prevents) material transport between systems. Connectivity can be described in terms of frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change. It results from physical characteristics of a system, e.g., climate, soils, geology, topography, and the spatial distribution of aquatic components. Biological connectivity is also affected by traits and behavior of the biota. Connectivity can be altered by human impacts, often in complex ways. Because of variability in these factors, connectivity is not constant but varies over time and space. Connectivity can be quantified with field‐based methods, modeling, and remote sensing. Further studies using these methods are needed to classify and quantify connectivity of aquatic ecosystems and to understand how impacts affect connectivity.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2020

Dynamics, variability, and change in seasonal precipitation reconstructions for North America

Cool and warm season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December-April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May-July totals. These discrete seasonal predictor chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season and the reconstructions calibrate at least 40% of the variance in both December-April and May-July precipitation totals over a large portion of North America for up to 2,000-years. Validation statistics computed on independent instrumental precipitation data from 1901-1927 indicate that the December-April reconstructions are reliable over most of the western and southern United States and northcentral Mexico, and the May-July estimates are valid over most of the United States, southwest Canada, and northeast Mexico. The strong continent wide El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool season reconstructions, and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm season estimates, both faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean-atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide new insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the 16th century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500-years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Significant 200- to 500-year long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool and warm season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the East that began due to natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2006

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2004

Changes in the proportion of precipitation occurring as snow in New England (1949-2000)

The ratio of snow to total precipitation (S/P) is a hydrologic indicator that is sensitive to climate variability and can be used to detect and monitor hydrologic responses to climatic change. Changes in S/P ratio over time could influence the magnitude and timing of spring runoff and recession to summer baseflow. The S/P ratio for 21 U.S. Historical Climatology Network sites in New England was examined. Eleven out of twenty-one sites in New England had significant decreasing annual S/P ratios from 1949 to 2000. Annual trends in S/P are predominantly a result of decreasing snowfall, and to a lesser extent, increasing rainfall. The most consistent trends were in northernmost New England where all four sites had decreasing ratios, and in the coastal and near-coastal areas where five out of eight sites had significantly decreasing ratios. The four sites in northernmost New England, which had the strongest and most coherent trends, showed an average decrease in annual S/P ratio from about 0.30 in 1949 to 0.23 in 2000. Trends in winter S/P ratio were less geographically consistent. Seven out of 21 sites had significantly decreasing winter S/P ratios. Most northern New England and coastal to near-coastal sites had statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) or weak, but not significant trends (p < 0.2). When trends in S/P were analyzed on a monthly basis for the northernmost sites, it was evident that decreasing S/P trends were significant for March and December only. Significant correlations were observed between winter S/P ratios in northern New England and the timing of spring runoff, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the Pacific-North American (PNA) index. Significant correlations were observed between winter S/P ratios averaged for all of New England and the NAO and PNA.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2007

A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains

Dendroecological techniques were applied to reconstruct stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Fourteen stand-replacing fires were dated to 8 unique fire years (1842–1901) using four lines of evidence at each of 12 sites within the upper Rio Grande Basin. The four lines of evidence were ( i ) quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) inner-ring dates, ( ii ) fire-killed conifer bark-ring dates, ( iii ) tree-ring width changes or other morphological indicators of injury, and ( iv ) fire scars. The annual precision of dating allowed the identification of synchronous stand-replacing fire years among the sites, and co-occurrence with regional surface fire events previously reconstructed from a network of fire scar collections in lower elevation pine forests across the southwestern United States. Nearly all of the synchronous stand-replacing and surface fire years coincided with severe droughts, because climate variability created regional conditions where stand-replacing fires and surface fires burned across ecosystems. Reconstructed stand-replacing fires that predate substantial Anglo-American settlement in this region provide direct evidence that stand-replacing fires were a feature of high-elevation forests before extensive and intensive land-use practices (e.g., logging, railroad, and mining) began in the late 19th century.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2021

Conservation of northwestern and southwestern pond turtles: Threats, population size estimates, and population viability analysis

Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida . Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT ( P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2005

Summer low flows in New England during the 20th Century

High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =−0.37, p = 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2011

Biology, status, and management of the yellowstone cutthroat trout

Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri were historically distributed in the Yellowstone River drainage (Montana and Wyoming) and the Snake River drainage (Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and probably Washington). Individual populations evolved distinct life history characteristics in response to the diverse environments in which they were isolated after the last glaciation. Anthropogenic activities have resulted in a substantial decline (42% of the historical range is currently occupied; 28% is occupied by core [genetically unaltered] populations), but the number of extant populations, especially in headwater streams, has precluded listing of this taxon under the Endangered Species Act. Primary threats to persistence of Yellowstone cutthroat trout include (1) invasive species, resulting in hybridization, predation, disease, and interspecific competition; (2) habitat degradation from human activities such as agricultural practices, water diversions, grazing, dam construction, mineral extraction, grazing, timber harvest, and road construction; and (3) climate change, including an escalating risk of drought, wildfire, winter flooding, and rising temperatures. Extirpation of individual populations or assemblages has led to increasing isolation and fragmentation of remaining groups, which in turn raises susceptibility to the demographic influences of disturbance (both human and stochastic) and genetic factors. Primary conservation strategies include (1) preventing risks associated with invasive species by isolating populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and (2) connecting occupied habitats (where possible) to preserve metapopulation function and the expression of multiple life histories. Because persistence of isolated populations may be greater in the short term, current management is focused on isolating individual populations and restoring habitats; however, this approach implies that humans will act as dispersal agents if a population is extirpated because of stochastic events.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2001

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2015

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution. METHODS: We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate. KEY RESULTS: We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2021

Direct and size-mediated effects of temperature and ration-dependent growth rates on energy reserves in juvenile anadromous alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus)

Growth rate and energy reserves are important determinants of fitness and are governed by endogenous and exogenous factors. Thus, examining the influence of individual and multiple stressors on growth and energy reserves can help estimate population health under current and future conditions. In young anadromous fishes, freshwater habitat quality determines physiological state and fitness of juveniles emigrating to marine habitats. We tested how temperature and food availability affect survival, growth, and energy reserves in juvenile anadromous alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), a forage fish distributed along the eastern North American continent. Field-collected juvenile anadromous A. pseudoharengus were exposed for 21 days to one of two temperatures (21°C and 25°C) and one of two levels of food rations (1% or 2% tank biomass daily) and compared for differences in final size, fat mass-at-length, lean mass-at-length, and energy density. Increased temperature and reduced ration both led to lower growth rates and the effect of reduced ration was greater at higher temperature. Fat mass-at-length decreased with dry mass and energy density increased with total length, suggesting size-based endogenous influences on energy reserves. Lower ration also directly decreased fat mass-at-length, lean mass-at-length and energy density. Given the fitness implications of size and energy reserves, temperature and food availability should be considered important indicators of nursery habitat quality and incorporated in A. pseudoharengus life history models to improve forecasting of population health under climate change.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2017

Effects of impervious area and BMP implementation and design on storm runoff and water quality in eight small watersheds

The effects of increases in effective impervious area (EIA) and the implementation of water quality protection designed detention pond best management practices (BMPs) on storm runoff and stormwater quality were assessed in Gwinnett County, Georgia, for the period 2001-2008. Trends among eight small watersheds were compared, using a time trend study design. Significant trends were detected in three storm hydrologic metrics and in five water quality constituents that were adjusted for variability in storm characteristics and climate. Trends in EIA ranged from 0.10 to 1.35, and changes in EIA treated by BMPs ranged from 0.19 to 1.32; both expressed in units of percentage of drainage area per year. Trend relations indicated that for every 1% increase in watershed EIA, about 2.6, 1.1, and 1.5% increases in EIA treated by BMPs would be required to counteract the effects of EIA added to the watersheds on peak streamflow, stormwater yield, and storm streamflow runoff, respectively. Relations between trends in EIA, BMP implementation, and water quality were counterintuitive. This may be the result of (1) changes in constituent inputs in the watersheds, especially downstream of areas treated by BMPs; (2) BMPs may have increased the duration of stormflow that results in downstream channel erosion; and/or (3) spurious relationships between increases in EIA, BMP implementation, and constituent inputs with development rates.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2015

Status and conservation of interior Redband Trout in the western United States

In this article we describe the current status and conservation of interior (potamodromous) Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss sspp. throughout its range in the western United States using extant data and expert opinion provided by fish managers. Redband Trout historically occupied 60,295 km of stream habitat and 152 natural lakes. Currently, Redband Trout occupy 25,417 km of stream habitat (42% of their historical range) and 124 lakes or reservoirs. Nonhybridized populations are assumed to occupy 11,695 km (46%) of currently occupied streams; however, fish from only 4,473 km (18%) have been genetically tested. Approximately 47% of the streams occupied by Redband Trout occur on private land, 45% on government lands, and 8% in protected areas. A total of 210 Redband Trout populations, occupying 15,252 km of stream habitat (60% of the current distribution) and 95,158 ha of lake habitat (52%), are being managed as &ldquo;conservation populations.&rdquo; Most conservation populations have been designated as weakly to strongly connected metapopulations (125; 60%) and occupy much more stream length (14,112 km; 93%) than isolated conservation populations (1,141 km; 7%). The primary threats to Redband Trout include invasive species, habitat degradation and fragmentation, and climate change. Although the historical distribution of interior Redband Trout has declined dramatically, we conclude that the species is not currently at imminent risk of extinction because it is still widely distributed with many populations isolated by physical barriers and active conservation efforts are occurring for many populations. However, the hybridization status of many populations has not been well quantified, and introgression may be more prevalent than documented here. We recommend (1) collecting additional genetic data and estimating distribution and abundance by means of a more rigorous spatial sampling design to reduce uncertainties, (2) collecting additional information to assess and predict the impacts of climate on populations, and (3) continuing to use this database to evaluate the status of Redband Trout and inform conservation efforts through time.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2006

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have be en used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2021

Impacts of climate change on groundwater availability and spring flows: Observations from the highly productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

California↗
USGS2023

Integrated water resources trend assessments: State of the science, challenges, and opportunities for advancement

Water is vital to human life and healthy ecosystems. Here we outline the current state of national-scale water resources trend assessments, identify key gaps, and suggest advancements to better address critical issues related to changes in water resources that may threaten human development or the environment. Questions like, “Do we have less suitable drinking water now than we had 20 years ago?” or “Are flood events more common now than they were in the past?” prompted improvements in data, trend estimation methods, and modeling frameworks to track changes in, and better understand how land use and climate influence four water resources domains: surface and groundwater quantity and quality. However, continued advancement in trend assessments to better address issues related to changes in water availability is needed. Areas of need include more timely and efficient delivery of water resources trend results and improved capacity to estimate trends at unmonitored locations. Additional integration pieces include increased understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions, incorporation of both quantity and quality trends into water availability estimates, and the refinement of trend metrics to account for the competing needs of society and ecological integrity. Coupled with improved driver attribution studies, these components will better inform current and future water resources management.

Journal of the American Water Resource Association↗
USGS2018

Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

Journal of Climate↗