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USGS2015

Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the synthetic study and future real-world modeling are discussed.

California↗

USGS2018

DDT and related compounds in pore water of shallow sediments on the Palos Verdes Shelf, California, USA

For nearly two and a half decades following World War II, production wastes from the world's largest manufacturer of technical DDT (1-chloro-4-[2,2,2-trichloro-1-(4-chlorophenyl)ethyl]benzene) were discharged into sewers of Los Angeles County. Following treatment, the wastes were released via a submarine outfall system to nearshore coastal waters where a portion accumulated in shallow sediments of the Palos Verdes Shelf (PVS). An investigation of the pore-water geochemistry of DDT-related compounds (DDX) was undertaken in an effort to understand factors controlling the rate of reductive dechlorination (RDC) of the major DDT degradate, 4,4′-DDE (1-chloro-4-[2,2-dichloro-1-(4-chlorophenyl)ethenyl]benzene). Equilibrium matrix-solid phase microextraction (matrix-SPMEeq) combined with automated thermal desorption-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (TDGC/MS) was used to determine freely dissolved concentrations of ten DDX analytes in sediment cores collected from three locations on the PVS (stations 3C, 6C, 8C, which are 7 km, 2 km, and 0 km, respectively, downcurrent from the outfall system). Pore-water concentrations (pM) of the principal DDX compounds involved in RDC were: 3C-DDE: 6.0–24, DDMU (1-chloro-4-[2-chloro-1-(4-chlorophenyl)ethenyl]benzene): 11–160, DDNU (1-chloro-4-[1-(4-chlorophenyl)ethenyl]benzene): 1.8–68; 6C-DDE: 5.6–170, DDMU: 5.6–177, DDNU: 1.7–87; 8CDDE: 27–212, DDMU: 31–403, DDNU: 5.5–89. Variations in the spatial distribution of DDX analytes in pore water reflect several factors including proximity to the outfalls, RDC reaction rates, and natural variability in sedimentation and post-depositional transport processes. A comparison of pore-water data produced using matrix-SPME eq /TD-GC/MS and whole-core squeezing/solvent extraction/liquid injection-GC/MS indicates that the majority of the DDE in the upper sediment column (≤about 10 cm) is associated with dissolved/colloidal organic matter. Below that depth, freely-dissolved DDE predominates. The principal organic geochemical phase controlling sorption of DDE in PVS sediments are residual hydrocarbons, the vast majority of which originated from petroleum refinery wastes. Organic carbon-normalized sediment-water distribution coefficients (KOC) were calculated from solid-phase and pore-water concentrations of DDX and organic carbon. Log K OC values (L/kg) were relatively invariant across the shelf and with depth in the sediment column. Shelf-wide compound-specific coefficients (log K OC ) were: DDE: 7.5 ± 0.11, DDMU: 6.92 ± 0.13, DDNU: 6.37 ± 0.19. The spatial uniformity of K OC means that biological exposure and availability of the DDX compounds can, in principle, be estimated from solid-phase chemical measurements.

California↗

USGS2013

Comparison of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from watersheds draining the Bay Area and the Central Valley of California

Quantifying suspended sediment loads is important for managing the world's estuaries in the context of navigation, pollutant transport, wetland restoration, and coastal erosion. To address these needs, a comprehensive analysis was completed on sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from fluvial sources. Suspended sediment, optical backscatter, velocity data near the head of the estuary, and discharge data obtained from the output of a water balance model were used to generate continuous suspended sediment concentration records and compute loads to the Bay from the large Central Valley watershed. Sediment loads from small tributary watersheds around the Bay were determined using 235 station-years of suspended sediment data from 38 watershed locations, regression analysis, and simple modeling. Over 16 years, net annual suspended sediment load to the head of the estuary from its 154,000 km 2 Central Valley watershed varied from 0.13 to 2.58 (mean = 0.89) million metric t of suspended sediment, or an average yield of 11 metric t/km 2 /yr. Small tributaries, totaling 8145 km 2 , in the nine-county Bay Area discharged between 0.081 and 4.27 (mean = 1.39) million metric t with a mean yield of 212 metric t/km 2 /yr. The results indicate that the hundreds of urbanized and tectonically active tributaries adjacent to the Bay, which together account for just 5% of the total watershed area draining to the Bay and provide just 7% of the annual average fluvial flow, supply 61% of the suspended sediment. The small tributary loads are more variable (53-fold between years compared to 21-fold for the inland Central Valley rivers) and dominated fluvial sediment supply to the Bay during 10 out of 16 yr. If San Francisco Bay is typical of other estuaries in active tectonic or climatically variable coastal regimes, managers responsible for water quality, dredging and reusing sediment accumulating in shipping channels, or restoring wetlands in the world's estuaries may need to more carefully account for proximal small urbanized watersheds that may dominate sediment supply.

California↗

USGS2014

Geologic implications of gas hydrates in the offshore of India: results of the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01

The Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP-01) is designed to study the occurrence of gas hydrate along the passive continental margin of the Indian Peninsula and in the Andaman convergent margin, with special emphasis on understanding the geologic and geochemical controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate in these two diverse settings. The NGHP-01 expedition established the presence of gas hydrates in the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins, and the Andaman Sea. The expedition discovered in the Krishna-Godavari Basin one of the thickest gas hydrate accumulations ever documented, in the Andaman Sea one of the thickest and deepest gas hydrate stability zones in the world, and established the existence of a fully developed gas hydrate petroleum system in all three basins. The primary goal of NGHP-01 was to conduct scientific ocean drilling/coring, logging, and analytical activities to assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of gas hydrate deposits along the continental margins of India. This was done in order to meet the long-term goal of exploiting gas hydrate as a potential energy resource in a cost effective and safe manner. During its 113.5-day voyage, the D/V JOIDES Resolution cored and/or drilled 39 holes at 21 sites (1 site in Kerala-Konkan, 15 sites in Krishna-Godavari, 4 sites in Mahanadi, and 1 site in the Andaman deep offshore area), penetrated more than 9250 m of sedimentary section, and recovered nearly 2850 m of core. Twelve holes were logged with logging-while-drilling (LWD) tools and an additional 13 holes were wireline logged. The science team utilized extensive on-board laboratory facilities to examine and prepare preliminary reports on the physical properties, geochemistry, and sedimentology of all the data collected prior to the end of the expedition. Samples were also analyzed in additional post-expedition shore-based studies conducted in leading laboratories around the world. One of the specific objectives of this expedition was to test gas hydrate formation models and constrain model parameters, especially those that account for the formation of concentrated gas hydrate accumulations. The necessary data for characterizing the occurrence of in situ gas hydrate, such as interstitial water chlorinities, core-derived gas chemistry, physical and sedimentological properties, thermal images of the recovered cores, and downhole measured logging data (LWD and/or conventional wireline log data), were obtained from most of the drill sites established during NGHP-01. Almost all of the drill sites yielded evidence for the occurrence of gas hydrate; however, the inferred in situ concentration of gas hydrate varied substantially from site to site. For the most part, the interpretation of downhole logging data, core thermal images, interstitial water analyses, and pressure core images from the sites drilled during NGHP-01 indicate that the occurrence of concentrated gas hydrate is mostly associated with the presence of fractures in the sediments, and in some limited cases, by coarser grained (mostly sand-rich) sediments.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2004

Comparison of some sediment-hosted, stratiform barite deposits in China, the United States, and India

Shifts in world barite production since the 1980s have resulted in China becoming the world's largest barite-producing country followed by the US and India. Most barite produced for use in drilling fluids is derived from black shale- and chert-hosted, stratiform marine deposits. In China, Late Proterozoic to Early Cambrian marine barite deposits occur on the oceanic margins of the Yangtze platform, in the Qinling region in the north and the Jiangnan region in the south. Most US ore-grade deposits are in the Nevada barite belt; most commercial deposits occur in Ordovician and Devonian marine rocks along the western margin of the early Paleozoic North American continent. Production in India is predominantly from a single Middle Proterozoic deposit in a sedimentary basin located on Archean basement in Andrah Pradesh.The geologic and geochemical characteristics of the deposits are consistent with origins from a variety of sedimentary-exhalative processes, with biogenic processes contributing to the concentration of some seafloor barite. Linear distributions of clusters of lenticular deposits suggest a geographic relationship to syndepositional seafloor fault zones. Sulfur isotope data of the barite deposits range from values that are similar to coeval seawater sulfate to significantly higher ??34S values. Strontium isotope values of continental-margin-type deposits in Nevada and China are less radiogenic than those of cratonic-rift deposits (e.g. Meggen and Rammelsberg). Comparison of Lan/ Cen ratios of barite in the Qinling region of China with marine chert ratios suggests a relationship to hydrothermal fluids, whereas ratios from the Jiangnan region and Nevada can be interpreted as reflecting a biogenic influence.The California Borderland provides a potential modern analog where hydrothermal barium is being deposited on the seafloor in fault-block-bounded basins. Anoxic to dysaerobic conditions on some marine basin floors result from upwelling, nutrient-rich currents and high productivity in surface waters. In this setting, biogenic processes could contribute to the concentration of barium from hydrothermal sources. ?? 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS2007

Nature, diversity of deposit types and metallogenic relations of South China

The South China Region is rich in mineral resources and has a wide diversity of deposit types. The region has undergone multiple tectonic and magmatic events and related metallogenic processes throughout the earth history. These tectonic and metallogenic processes were responsible for the formation of the diverse styles of base and precious metal deposits in South China making it one of the resource-rich regions in the world. During the Proterozoic, the South China Craton was characterised by rifting of continental margin before eruption of submarine volcanics and development of platform carbonate rocks, and the formation of VHMS, stratabound copper and MVT deposits. The Phanerozoic metallogeny of South China was related to opening and closing of the Tethyan Ocean involving multiple orogenies by subduction, back-arc rifting, arc-continent collision and post-collisional extension during the Indosinian (Triassic), Yanshanian (Jurassic to Cretaceous) and Himalayan (Tertiary) Orogenies. The Late Palaeozoic was a productive metallogenic period for South China resulting from break-up and rifting of Gondwana. Significant stratabound base and precious metal deposits were formed during the Devonian and Carboniferous (e.g., Fankou and Dabaoshan deposits). These Late Palaeozoic SEDEX-style deposits have been often overprinted by skarn systems associated with Yanshanian magmatism (e.g., Chengmenshan, Dongguashan and Qixiashan). A number of Late Palaeozoic to Early Mesozoic VHMS deposits also developed in the Sanjiang fold belt in the western part of South China (e.g., Laochang and Gacun). South China has significant sedimentary rock-hosted Carlin-like deposits, which occur in the Devonian- to Triassic-aged accretionary wedge or rift basins at the margin of the South China Craton. They are present in a region at the junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi Provinces called the 'Southern Golden Triangle', and are also present in NW Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi, in an area known as the 'Northern Golden Triangle' of China. These deposits are mostly epigenetic hydrothermal micron-disseminated gold deposits with associated As, Hg, Sb + Tl mineralisation similar to Carlin-type deposits in USA. The important deposits in the Southern Golden Triangle are Jinfeng (Lannigou), Zimudang, Getang, Yata and Banqi in Guizhou Province, and the Jinya and Gaolong deposits in Guangxi District. The most important deposits in the Northern Golden Triangle are the Dongbeizhai and Qiaoqiaoshang deposits. Many porphyry-related polymetallic copper-lead-zinc and gold skarn deposits occur in South China. These deposits are related to Indosinian (Triassic) and Yanshanian (Jurassic to Cretaceous) magmatism associated with collision of the South China and North China Cratons and westward subduction of the Palaeo-Pacific Plate. Most of these deposits are distributed along the Lower to Middle Yangtze River metallogenic belt. The most significant deposits are Tonglushan, Jilongshan, Fengshandong, Shitouzui and Jiguanzui. Au-(Ag-Mo)-rich porphyry-related Cu-Fe skarn deposits are also present (Chengmenshan and Wushan in Jiangxi Province and Xinqiao, Mashan-Tianmashan, Shizishan and Huangshilaoshan in Anhui Province). The South China fold belt extending from Fujian to Zhejiang Provinces is characterised by well-developed Yanshanian intrusive to subvolcanic rocks associated with porphyry to epithermal type mineralisation and mesothermal vein deposits. The largest porphyry copper deposit in China, Dexing, occurs in Jiangxi Province and is hosted by Yanshanian granodiorite. The high-sulphidation epithermal system occurs at the Zijinshan district in Fujian Province and epithermal to mesothermal vein-type deposits are also found in the Zhejiang Province (e.g., Zhilingtou). Part of Shandong Province is located at the northern margin of the South China Craton and the province has unique world class granite-hosted orogenic gold deposits. Occurrences of Pt-Pd-Ni-Cu-Co are found in Permian

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS2008

Precipitation rates and atmospheric heat transport during the Cenomanian greenhouse warming in North America: Estimates from a stable isotope mass-balance model

Stable isotope mass-balance modeling results of meteoric ??18O values from the Cenomanian Stage of the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin (KWIB) suggest that precipitation and evaporation fluxes were greater than that of the present and significantly different from simulations of Albian KWIB paleohydrology. Sphaerosiderite meteoric ??18O values have been compiled from the Lower Tuscaloosa Formation of southwestern Mississippi (25??N paleolatitude), The Dakota Formation Rose Creek Pit, Fairbury Nebraska (35??N) and the Dunvegan Formation of eastern British Columbia (55??N paleolatitude). These paleosol siderite ??18O values define a paleolatitudinal gradient ranging from - 4.2??? VPDB at 25??N to - 12.5??? VPDB at 55??N. This trend is significantly steeper and more depleted than a modern theoretical siderite gradient (25??N: - 1.7???; 65??N: - 5.6??? VPDB ), and a Holocene meteoric calcite trend (27??N: - 3.6???; 67??N: - 7.4??? VPDB). The Cenomanian gradient is also comparatively steeper than the Albian trend determined for the KWIB in the mid- to high latitudes. The steep latitudinal trend in meteoric ??18O values may be the result of increased precipitation and evaporation fluxes (amount effects) under a more vigorous greenhouse-world hydrologic cycle. A stable-isotope mass-balance model has been used to generate estimates of precipitation and evaporation fluxes and precipitation rates. Estimates of Cenomanian precipitation rates based upon the mass-balance modeling of the KWIB range from 1400??mm/yr at 25??N paleolatitude to 3600??mm/yr at 45??N paleolatitude. The precipitation-evaporation (P-E) flux values were used to delineate zones of moisture surplus and moisture deficit. Comparisons between Cenomanian P-E and modern theoretical siderite, and Holocene calcite latitudinal trends shows an amplification of low-latitude moisture deficits between 5-25??N paleolatitude and moisture surpluses between 40-60??N paleolatitude. The low-latitude moisture deficits correlate with a mean annual average heat loss of 48??W/m2 at 10??N paleolatitude (present, 8??W/m2 at 15??N). The increased precipitation flux and moisture surplus in the mid-latitudes corresponds to a mean average annual heat gain of 180??W/m2 at 50??N paleolatitude (present, 17??W/m2 at 50??N). The Cenomanian low-latitude moisture deficit is similar to that of the Albian, however the mid-latitude (40-60??N) precipitation flux values and precipitation rates are significantly higher (Albian: 2200??mm/yr at 45??N; Cenomanian: 3600??mm/yr at 45??N). Furthermore, the heat transferred to the atmosphere via latent heat of condensation was approximately 10.6?? that of the present at 50??N. The intensified hydrologic cycle of the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse warming may have played a significant role in the poleward transfer of heat and more equable global conditions. Paleoclimatological reconstructions from multiple time periods during the mid-Cretaceous will aid in a better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat flux during greenhouse world conditions.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2017

Coastal river plumes: Collisions and coalescence

Plumes of buoyant river water spread in the ocean from river mouths, and these plumes influence water quality, sediment dispersal, primary productivity, and circulation along the world’s coasts. Most investigations of river plumes have focused on large rivers in a coastal region, for which the physical spreading of the plume is assumed to be independent from the influence of other buoyant plumes. Here we provide new understanding of the spreading patterns of multiple plumes interacting along simplified coastal settings by investigating: (i) the relative likelihood of plume-to-plume interactions at different settings using geophysical scaling, (ii) the diversity of plume frontal collision types and the effects of these collisions on spreading patterns of plume waters using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and (iii) the fundamental differences in plume spreading patterns between coasts with single and multiple rivers using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Geophysical scaling suggests that coastal margins with numerous small rivers (watershed areas < 10,000 km 2 ), such as found along most active geologic coastal margins, were much more likely to have river plumes that collide and interact than coastal settings with large rivers (watershed areas > 100,000 km 2 ). When two plume fronts meet, several types of collision attributes were found, including refection, subduction and occlusion. We found that the relative differences in pre-collision plume densities and thicknesses strongly influenced the resulting collision types. The three-dimensional spreading of buoyant plumes was found to be influenced by the presence of additional rivers for all modeled scenarios, including those with and without Coriolis and wind. Combined, these results suggest that plume-to-plume interactions are common phenomena for coastal regions offshore of the world’s smaller rivers and for coastal settings with multiple river mouths in close proximity, and that the spreading and fate of river waters in these settings will be strongly influenced by these interactions. We conclude that new investigations are needed to characterize how plumes interact offshore of river mouths to better understand the transport and fate of terrestrial sources of pollution, nutrients and other materials in the ocean.

Progress in Oceanography↗

USGS2025

Pysochron: A Python-based solution for calculating cosmogenic 26Al/10Be isochron burial ages

Cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be isochron burial dating is a powerful tool for dating sediment burial over the past several million years. By measuring in-situ 26 Al and 10 Be in a suite of samples from the same depth in a buried deposit, it is possible to quantify the inventory of cosmogenic nuclides produced after burial, date the burial of shallow sediments, identify sediment reworking, and calculate paleo-erosion rates. While this approach has been used to date materials around the world for over a decade, few published codes exist for performing 26 Al/ 10 Be isochron calculations. The isochron calculation options that are available typically rely on numerous files and libraries, rendering modification and troubleshooting difficult. Moreover, the widespread use of proprietary programming languages – and their associated addon packages – can place an additional financial burden on an already costly endeavor. Pysochron ( https://code.usgs.gov/recon/pysochron ) provides a solution to these issues. In its base form, it exists as a single script that can be easily modified, upgraded, and shared. Because it was developed in an open-source environment, all required computational packages are available free of charge. A user-friendly interface allows rapid modification of calculation parameters, and an automated commentary on isochron results provides insights and recommendations. Pysochron has been validated with 40 published cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be burial isochrons around the world, with burial ages ranging from ∼5 Ma to ∼180 ka. As such, it is a promising option for members of the cosmogenic nuclide community seeking a straightforward, cost-effective, and flexible solution to isochron burial dating challenges.

Quaternary Geochronology↗

USGS2018

Geochemistry and mineralogy of late Quaternary loess in the upper Mississippi River valley, USA: Provenance and correlation with Laurentide Ice Sheet history

The midcontinent of North America contains some of the thickest and most extensive last-glacial loess deposits in the world, known as Peoria Loess. Peoria Loess of the upper Mississippi River valley region is thought to have had temporally varying glaciogenic sources resulting from inputs of sediment to the Mississippi River from different lobes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Here, we explore a new method of determining loess provenance using K/Rb and K/Ba values (in K-feldspars and micas) in loess from a number of different regions in North America. Results indicate that K/Rb and K/Ba values can distinguish loess originating from diverse geologic terrains in North America. Further, different loess bodies that are known to have had the same source sediments (using other criteria) have similar K/Rb and K/Ba values. We also studied three thick loess sections in the upper Mississippi River valley region. At each site, the primary composition of the loess changed over the course of the last glacial period, and K/Rb and K/Ba values parallel changes in carbonate mineral content and clay mineralogy. We thus confirm conclusions of earlier investigators that loess composition changed as a result of the shifting dominance of different lobes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and the changing course of the Mississippi River. We conclude that K/Rb and K/Ba values are effective, robust, and rapid indicators of loess provenance that can be applied to many regions of the world.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2021

Campfire Conversations at the 2020 annual meeting: Insights & lessons learned from “cuss-and-discuss” rather than “chalk-and-talk”

• The 2020 SRM Annual Meeting piloted “Campfire Conversation,” round-table discussions styled after the World Café approach. • The event attracted 280 attendees and enabled multidirectional knowledge exchange (i.e., “cuss and discuss”), rather than one-way “chalk-and-talk.” Attendees participated in three 20-minute facilitated round-table discussions around three topics they selected from a menu of 13 timely rangeland issues. • Change was a common theme for many Campfire Conversations, including social, climatic, ecological, management, and policy changes. • Participants highlighted a desire for SRM to grow as an organization by enhancing members’ opportunities and resources for multidirectional knowledge exchange among students, scientists, practitioners, and policy-makers; cross-generational mentorship; cross-disciplinary training; diverse ways of knowing; and greater inclusivity and connection to the SRM. • A post-event analysis of the Campfire Conversation event revealed valuable lessons for organizing successful World Café-style sessions at future SRM meetings, including virtual meetings.

The Rangelands Journal↗

USGS2005

Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems

It is difficult to find references to fire in general textbooks on ecology, conservation biology or biogeography, in spite of the fact that large parts of the world burn on a regular basis, and that there is a considerable literature on the ecology of fire and its use for managing ecosystems. Fire has been burning ecosystems for hundreds of millions of years, helping to shape global biome distribution and to maintain the structure and function of fire-prone communities. Fire is also a significant evolutionary force, and is one of the first tools that humans used to re-shape their world. Here, we review the recent literature, drawing parallels between fire and herbivores as alternative consumers of vegetation. We point to the common questions, and some surprisingly different answers, that emerge from viewing fire as a globally significant consumer that is analogous to herbivory.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations

Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay Farm Island (City of Alameda, California, USA) and the distant-tsunami threat posed by Aleutian-Alaskan earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of agent-based, transportation simulation to support short-notice, tsunami-evacuation planning. Results demonstrate how vehicle simulation can characterize network performance during a tsunami evacuation in the absence of real-world measurements of vehicle demand and flow. Changes in vehicle demand had the greatest influence on reductions in clearance times and recommended reductions varied based on time of day. Doubling the capacity of certain road segments based on traditional vehicle-capacity ratios and level-of-service thresholds reduced overall clearance time in some cases but increased it in other cases. The proposed simulation approach can serve as an analytical foundation for future efforts to characterize distant-tsunami evacuations in other coastal communities throughout the world.

California↗

USGS2017

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

California↗

USGS2004

Distribution of potentially hazardous trace elements in coals from Shanxi province, China

Shanxi province, located in the center of China, is the biggest coal base of China. There are five coal-forming periods in Shanxi province: Late Carboniferous (Taiyuan Formation), Early Permian (Shanxi Formation), Middle Jurassic (Datong Formation), Tertiary (Taxigou Formation), and Quaternary. Hundred and ten coal samples and a peat sample from Shanxi province were collected and the contents of 20 potentially hazardous trace elements (PHTEs) (As, B, Ba, Cd, Cl, Co, Cr, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Th, U, V and Zn) in these samples were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis, atomic absorption spectrometry, cold-vapor atomic absorption spectrometry, ion chromatography spectrometry, and wet chemical analysis. The result shows that the brown coals are enriched in As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, F and Zn compared with the bituminous coals and anthracite, whereas the bituminous coals are enriched in B, Cl, Hg, and the anthracite is enriched in Cl, Hg, U and V. A comparison with world averages and crustal abundances (Clarke values) shows that the Quaternary peat is highly enriched in As and Mo, Tertiary brown coals are highly enriched in Cd, Middle Jurassic coals, Early Permian coals and Late Carboniferous coals are enriched in Hg. According to the coal ranks, the bituminous coals are highly enriched in Hg, whereas Cd, F and Th show low enrichments, and the anthracite is also highly enriched in Hg and low enrichment in Th. The concentrations of Cd, F, Hg and Th in Shanxi coals are more than world arithmetic means of concentrations for the corresponding elements. Comparing with the United States coals, Shanxi coals show higher concentrations of Cd, Hg, Pb, Se and Th. Most of Shanxi coals contain lower concentrations of PHTEs. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuel↗

USGS2000

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2000

From safe yield to sustainable development of water resources - The Kansas experience

This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involvement be encouraged, so that system complexities and constraints are better understood and overly simplistic solutions avoided. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involv

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2000

Methodology and application of combined watershed and ground-water models in Kansas

Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and versatility of this relatively simple and conceptually clear approach, making public acceptance of the integrated watershed modeling system much easier. This approach also enhances model calibration and thus the reliability of model results. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and ve

Journal of Hydrology↗