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USGS2026

Moose indifferent to canopy loss from forest disturbance by bark beetles

Conifer forests have experienced widespread disturbance following the infestation of bark beetles ( Dendroctonus spp.). Tree mortality and resulting canopy loss have altered forest composition in ways that could affect moose ( Alces alces ), including potential benefits from increased understory forage and drawbacks through the loss of refuge from heat and deep snow. We examined the behavioral response of moose to beetle-killed forest, comparing resource selection before (2005–2006) and after (2015–2017) disturbance in southeast Wyoming, USA. To evaluate selection, we created a land cover classification layer at 0.5-m resolution using machine learning to delineate dead conifers, as well as aspen and willows that were underrepresented in existing land cover products. By measuring resource selection in a fractional cover framework, we found that moose showed strikingly similar resource selection before and after beetle disturbance. Moose during both periods selected willows and aspen while avoiding conifer forest and shrubs throughout the year. Moose in the post-beetle periods avoided conifer forest more strongly the more conifer forest made up their home range. The same pattern emerged for beetle-killed conifer: the more beetle-kill in a home range, the stronger the avoidance of beetle-kill. Our findings indicate that forest disturbance caused by bark beetles does not appreciably alter habitat quality for moose, and moose continue to employ similar patterns of resource selection regardless of forest changes in the early stages of the post-beetle infestation. Our work supports the importance of riparian and deciduous land cover in sustaining moose populations in the face of widespread forest disturbances.

Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Dog attacks on wild desert tortoises: A risk model

We retrospectively compiled a database of 6,727 live, wild Agassiz's desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and evaluated them for clinical signs of trauma to shell and limbs at 50 sites in the Mojave and Colorado (western Sonoran) deserts of California, USA, spanning the years 1977–2006. Our objectives were to 1) identify tortoises with severe trauma to shell, limbs, and gular horns typically seen in attacks from dogs ( Canis familiaris ); 2) identify locations where severe injuries occurred; and 3) develop a risk model based on distances of tortoises from settlements, towns, or cities. Our models identified multiple variables of importance for tortoises with severe damage to shells, limbs, and gular horns: relative age and sex of tortoises, decades of occurrence, and location. Females and very old tortoises were more vulnerable to attacks than other tortoises. In the decades between the 1970s and 2000s, the risk of severe overall trauma to shell and limbs increased 4 times and to gular horns 16.5 times. Compared to previous decades, by the early 2000s the percent of tortoises with severe trauma increased exponentially the closer a tortoise site was to a settlement; the exponential increase began at approximately 12 km from a settlement. We suggest that the risks may be higher now because of the growth of human populations within the geographic range of the tortoise. The threats to tortoises from dogs are based on whether dogs are off-leash in the Mojave and Colorado deserts.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2014

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Wolf population regulation revisited: again

The long-accepted conclusion that wolf density is regulated by nutrition was recently challenged, and the conclusion was reached that, at greater levels of prey biomass, social factors such as intraspecific strife and territoriality tend to regulate wolf density. We reanalyzed the data used in that study for 2 reasons: 1) we disputed the use of 2 data points, and 2) because of recognized heteroscedasticity, we used weighted-regression analysis instead of the unweighted regressions used in the original study. We concluded that the data do not support the hypothesis that wolf densities are regulated by social factors.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey

We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterfowl population status for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), black ducks (Anas rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis), they are not routinely adjusted to control for time of day effects and other survey design issues. The hierarchical model analysis permits estimation of year effects and population change while accommodating the repeated sampling of plots and controlling for time of day effects in counting. We compared population estimates from the current stratified random sample analysis to population estimates from hierarchical models with alternative model structures that describe year to year changes as random year effects, a trend with random year effects, or year effects modeled as 1-year differences. Patterns of population change from the hierarchical model results generally were similar to the patterns described by stratified random sample estimates, but significant visibility differences occurred between twilight to midday counts in all species. Controlling for the effects of time of day resulted in larger population estimates for all species in the hierarchical model analysis relative to the stratified random sample analysis. The hierarchical models also provided a convenient means of estimating population trend as derived statistics from the analysis. We detected significant declines in mallard and American black ducks and significant increases in wood ducks and Canada geese, a trend that had not been significant for 3 of these 4 species in the prior analysis. We recommend using hierarchical models for analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Efficiency of time-lapse intervals and simple baits for camera surveys of wild pigs

Growing concerns surrounding established and expanding populations of wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) have created the need for rapid and accurate surveys of these populations. We conducted surveys of a portion of the wild pig population on Fort Benning, Georgia, to determine if a longer time‐lapse interval than had been previously used in surveys of wild pigs would generate similar detection results. We concurrently examined whether use of soured corn at camera sites affected the time necessary for pigs to locate a new camera site or the time pigs remained at a site. Our results suggest that a 9‐min time‐lapse interval generated dependable detection results for pigs and that soured corn neither attracted pigs to a site any quicker than plain, dry, whole‐kernel corn, nor held them at a site longer. Maximization of time‐lapse interval should decrease data and processing loads, and use of a simple, available bait should decrease cost and effort associated with more complicated baits; combination of these concepts should increase efficiency of wild pig surveys.

Georgia↗

USGS2014

Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves

We re-evaluated findings from Lenarz et al. (2009) that adult moose ( Alces alces ) survival in northeastern Minnesota was related to high January temperatures and that predation by wolves ( Canis lupus ) played a minor role. We found significant inverse relationships between annual wolf numbers in part of the moose range and various moose demographics from 2003 to 2013 that suggested a stronger role of wolves than heretofore believed. To re-evaluate the temperature findings, we conducted a simulation study, mimicking the approach taken by Lenarz et al. (2009), to explore the potential for concluding a significant relationship exists between temperature and survival, when no association exists. We found that the high R 2 s and low probabilities associated with the regression models in Lenarz et al. (2009) should be viewed cautiously in light of the large number of fitted models (m = 45) and few observations (n = 6 for each of 5 response variables).

Minnesota↗

USGS2014

Post-parturition habitat selection by elk calves and adult female elk in New Mexico

Neonatal survival and juvenile recruitment are crucial to maintaining viable elk ( Cervus elaphus ) populations. Neonate survival is known to be influenced by many factors, including bed-site selection. Although neonates select the actual bed-site location, they must do so within the larger calf-rearing area selected by the mother. As calves age, habitat selection should change to meet the changing needs of the growing calf. Our main objectives were to characterize habitat selection at 2 spatial scales and in areas with different predator assemblages in New Mexico. We evaluated bed-site selection by calves and calf-rearing area selection by adult females. We captured 108 elk calves by hand and fitted them with ear tag transmitters in two areas in New Mexico: the Valle Vidal and Blue Range Wolf Recovery Area. In both study areas, we found that concealing cover structure and distance to that cover influenced bed-site selection of young calves (i.e., <2 weeks of age). Older calves (i.e., 3–10 weeks of age) still selected areas in relation to distance to cover, but also preferred areas with higher visibility. At the larger spatial scale of calf-rearing habitat selection by the adult female, concealing cover (e.g., rocks, shrubs, and logs) and other variables important to the hiding calves were still in the most supported models, but selection was also influenced by forage availability and indices of forage quality. Studies that seek to obtain insight into microhabitat selection of ungulate neonates should consider selection by the neonate and selection by the adult female, changes in selection as neonates age, and potential selection differences in areas of differing predation risk. By considering these influences together and at multiple scales, studies can achieve a broader understanding of neonatal ungulate habitat requirements.

New Mexico↗

USGS2014

Effect of hunter selectivity on harvest rates of radio-collared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania

Radio transmitters are a commonly used tool for monitoring the fates of harvested species, although little research has been devoted to whether a visible radio transmitter changes a hunters' willingness to harvest that animal. We initially surveyed deer hunters to assess their willingness to harvest radio-collared deer and predicted radio collars were unlikely to affect the harvest of antlerless deer, but hunters may be less willing to harvest small-antlered males with radio collars compared to large-antlered males. We fitted white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) with radio collars that were visible to hunters or with ear-tag transmitters or ear-tags that were difficult to detect visually and estimated if harvest rates differed among marking methods. For females, the best model failed to detect an effect of radio collars on harvest rates. Also, we failed to detect a difference between male deer fitted with radio collars and ear-tag transmitters. When we compared males fitted with radio collars versus ear tags, we found harvest rate patterns were opposite to our predictions, with lower harvest rates for adult males fitted with radio collars and higher harvest rates for yearling males fitted with radio collars. Our study suggests that harvest rate estimates generated from a sample of deer fitted with visible radio collars can be representative of the population of inference.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2011

Density estimation in a wolverine population using spatial capture-recapture models

Classical closed-population capture-recapture models do not accommodate the spatial information inherent in encounter history data obtained from camera-trapping studies. As a result, individual heterogeneity in encounter probability is induced, and it is not possible to estimate density objectively because trap arrays do not have a well-defined sample area. We applied newly-developed, capture-recapture models that accommodate the spatial attribute inherent in capture-recapture data to a population of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Southeast Alaska in 2008. We used camera-trapping data collected from 37 cameras in a 2,140-km 2 area of forested and open habitats largely enclosed by ocean and glacial icefields. We detected 21 unique individuals 115 times. Wolverines exhibited a strong positive trap response, with an increased tendency to revisit previously visited traps. Under the trap-response model, we estimated wolverine density at 9.7 individuals/1,000-km 2 (95% Bayesian CI: 5.9-15.0). Our model provides a formal statistical framework for estimating density from wolverine camera-trapping studies that accounts for a behavioral response due to baited traps. Further, our model-based estimator does not have strict requirements about the spatial configuration of traps or length of trapping sessions, providing considerable operational flexibility in the development of field studies.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Distance to human populations influences epidemiology of respiratory disease in desert tortoises

We explored variables likely to affect health of Agassiz's desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a 1,183-km2 study area in the central Mojave Desert of California between 2005 and 2008. We evaluated 1,004 tortoises for prevalence and spatial distribution of 2 pathogens, Mycoplasma agassizii and M. testudineum, that cause upper respiratory tract disease. We defined tortoises as test-positive if they were positive by culture and/or DNA identification or positive or suspect for specific antibody for either of the two pathogens. We used covariates of habitat (vegetation, elevation, slope, and aspect), tortoise size and sex, distance from another test-positive tortoise, and anthropogenic variables (distances to roads, agricultural areas, playas, urban areas, and centroids of human-populated census blocks). We used both logistic regression models and regression trees to evaluate the 2 species of Mycoplasma separately. The prevalence of test-positive tortoises was low: 1.49% (15/1,004) for M. agassizii and 2.89% (29/1,004) for M. testudineum. The spatial distributions of test-positive tortoises for the 2 Mycoplasma species showed little overlap; only 2 tortoises were test-positive for both diseases. However, the spatial distributions did not differ statistically between the 2 species. We consistently found higher prevalence of test-positive tortoises with shorter distances to centroids of human-populated census blocks. The relationship between distance to human-populated census blocks and tortoises that are test-positive for M. agassizii and potentially M. testudineum may be related to release or escape of captive tortoises because the prevalence of M. agassizii in captive tortoises is high. Our findings have application to other species of chelonians where both domestic captive and wild populations exist. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Roosting habitat use and selection by northern spotted owls during natal dispersal

We studied habitat selection by northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) during natal dispersal in Washington State, USA, at both the roost site and landscape scales. We used logistic regression to obtain parameters for an exponential resource selection function based on vegetation attributes in roost and random plots in 76 forest stands that were used for roosting. We used a similar analysis to evaluate selection of landscape habitat attributes based on 301 radio-telemetry relocations and random points within our study area. We found no evidence of within-stand selection for any of the variables examined, but 78% of roosts were in stands with at least some large (>50 cm dbh) trees. At the landscape scale, owls selected for stands with high canopy cover (>70%). Dispersing owls selected vegetation types that were more similar to habitat selected by adult owls than habitat that would result from following guidelines previously proposed to maintain dispersal habitat. Our analysis indicates that juvenile owls select stands for roosting that have greater canopy cover than is recommended in current agency guidelines.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr

The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover rate and used this rate to simulate decline in number of occupied nests in list nests over time. Results of Watts and Duerr suggest that, given the rates of loss of nests from the list of known nest sites in Virginia, the list information will be of little value to sampling unless lists are constantly updated. Those authors criticize the plan for not placing sufficient emphasis on updating and maintaining lists of bald eagle nests. Watts and Duerr's metric of turnover rate does not distinguish detectability or temporary nonuse of nests from permanent loss of nests and likely overestimates turnover rate. We describe a multi-state capture–recapture model that allows appropriate estimation of rates of loss of nests, and we use the model to estimate rates of loss from a sample of nests from Maine, USA. The post-delisting monitoring plan addresses the need to maintain and update the lists of nests, and we show that dual frame sampling is an effective approach for sampling nesting bald eagle populations.

Virginia↗

USGS2015

Insufficient sampling to identify species affected by turbine collisions

We compared the number of avian species detected and the sampling effort during fatality monitoring at 50 North American wind facilities. Facilities with short intervals between sampling events and high effort detected more species, but many facilities appeared undersampled. Species accumulation curves for 2 wind facilities studied for more than 1 year had yet to reach an asymptote. The monitoring effort that is typically invested is likely inadequate to identify all of the species killed by wind turbines. This may understate impacts for rare species of conservation concern that collide infrequently with turbines but suffer disproportionate consequences from those fatalities. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Pairing call-response surveys and distance sampling for a mammalian carnivore

Density estimates accounting for differential animal detectability are difficult to acquire for wide-ranging and elusive species such as mammalian carnivores. Pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys may provide an efficient means of tracking changes in populations of coyotes ( Canis latrans ), a species of particular interest in the eastern United States. Blind field trials in rural New York State indicated 119-m linear error for triangulated coyote calls, and a 1.8-km distance threshold for call detectability, which was sufficient to estimate a detection function with precision using distance sampling. We conducted statewide road-based surveys with sampling locations spaced ≥6 km apart from June to August 2010. Each detected call (be it a single or group) counted as a single object, representing 1 territorial pair, because of uncertainty in the number of vocalizing animals. From 524 survey points and 75 detections, we estimated the probability of detecting a calling coyote to be 0.17 ± 0.02 SE, yielding a detection-corrected index of 0.75 pairs/10 km 2 (95% CI: 0.52–1.1, 18.5% CV) for a minimum of 8,133 pairs across rural New York State. Importantly, we consider this an index rather than true estimate of abundance given the unknown probability of coyote availability for detection during our surveys. Even so, pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys provided a novel, efficient, and noninvasive means of monitoring populations of wide-ranging and elusive, albeit reliably vocal, mammalian carnivores. Our approach offers an effective new means of tracking species like coyotes, one that is readily extendable to other species and geographic extents, provided key assumptions of distance sampling are met.

New York↗

USGS2015

Estimating the phenology of elk brucellosis transmission with hierarchical models of cause-specific and baseline hazards

Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk ( Cervus elaphus canadensis ) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus , the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the cause of death, or in this case whether the reproductive event was an abortion or live birth. Accounting for uncertainty in the event type is an important future addition to our methodological approach.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Truth, models, model sets, AIC, and multimodel inference: a Bayesian perspective

Statistical inference begins with viewing data as realizations of stochastic processes. Mathematical models provide partial descriptions of these processes; inference is the process of using the data to obtain a more complete description of the stochastic processes. Wildlife and ecological scientists have become increasingly concerned with the conditional nature of model-based inference: what if the model is wrong? Over the last 2 decades, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) has been widely and increasingly used in wildlife statistics for 2 related purposes, first for model choice and second to quantify model uncertainty. We argue that for the second of these purposes, the Bayesian paradigm provides the natural framework for describing uncertainty associated with model choice and provides the most easily communicated basis for model weighting. Moreover, Bayesian arguments provide the sole justification for interpreting model weights (including AIC weights) as coherent (mathematically self consistent) model probabilities. This interpretation requires treating the model as an exact description of the data-generating mechanism. We discuss the implications of this assumption, and conclude that more emphasis is needed on model checking to provide confidence in the quality of inference.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Feather isotope analysis reveals differential patterns of habitat and resource use in populations of white-winged doves

The white-winged dove ( Zenaida asiatica ) serves an important ecological role as a diurnal pollinator of the saguaro cactus in the Sonoran desert and an economic role as a highly sought after game bird in North America. White-winged doves are intimately linked to anthropogenic changes on the landscape and because of this, have experienced dramatic population fluctuations over the last 75 years in response, both positively and negatively, to anthropogenic changes on the landscape. To understand the factors driving population growth and decline of migratory species like the white-winged dove, it is imperative we study resource use on both their breeding and wintering grounds. To understand how populations are distributed on the wintering grounds, we tested an alternative to band recovery approaches by using stable isotope analysis. Before we could use isotope analysis to link breeding and wintering locations for this species, we first needed to determine if hydrogen (δ 2 H) and carbon (δ 13 C) stable isotopes in feather tissue (δ 2 H f and δ 13 C f , respectively) could differentiate among populations of white-winged doves across their breeding range in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. δ 2 H f and δ 13 C f not only differentiated between populations of white-winged doves that breed in the United States, but δ 2 H f also provided further differentiation in white-winged doves that breed in native Sonoran Desert and agricultural habitats in the western portion of their range. Ecological processes associated with desert resources and anthropogenic influences, specifically saguaro cacti and irrigated crops, largely determined δ 2 H f in some white-winged doves in Arizona whereas δ 2 H of precipitation (δ 2 H p ) largely determined δ 2 H f of doves in New Mexico and Texas. This study highlights the usefulness of stable isotope analysis to differentiate populations of animals across the landscape and the insight isotopes can provide into habitat and resource use. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas↗