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USGS2010

Bathymetry and absorptivity of Titan's Ontario Lacus

Ontario Lacus is the largest and best characterized lake in Titan's south polar region. In June and July 2009, the Cassini RADAR acquired its first Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of the area. Together with closest approach altimetry acquired in December 2008, these observations provide a unique opportunity to study the lake's nearshore bathymetry and complex refractive properties. Average radar backscatter is observed to decrease exponentially with distance from the local shoreline. This behavior is consistent with attenuation through a deepening layer of liquid and, if local topography is known, can be used to derive absorptive dielectric properties. Accordingly, we estimate nearshore topography from a radar altimetry profile that intersects the shoreline on the East and West sides of the lake. We then analyze SAR backscatter in these regions to determine the imaginary component of the liquid's complex index of refraction (κ). The derived value, κ = (6.1 −1.3 +1.7 ) × 10 −4 , corresponds to a loss tangent of tan Δ = (9.2 −2.0 +2.5 ) × 10 −4 and is consistent with a composition dominated by liquid hydrocarbons. This value can be used to test compositional models once the microwave optical properties of candidate materials have been measured. In areas that do not intersect altimetry profiles, relative slopes can be calculated assuming the index of refraction is constant throughout the liquid. Accordingly, we construct a coarse bathymetry map for the nearshore region by measuring bathymetric slopes for eleven additional areas around the lake. These slopes vary by a factor of ∼5 and correlate well with observed shoreline morphologies.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2010

Complexities in barrier island response to sea level rise: Insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks

Using a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an “effective” barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e.g., previous slopes, sediment budgets, etc.) in determining migration trajectories and therefore how a barrier island will respond to sea level rise. Although simple analytical calculations may predict barrier response in simplified coastal environments (e.g., constant slope, constant sea level rise rate, etc.), our model experiments demonstrate that morphological-behavior modeling is necessary to provide critical insights regarding changes that may occur in environments having complex geometries, especially when multiple parameters change simultaneously.

North Carolina↗
USGS2010

A rain splash transport equation assimilating field and laboratory measurements

Process-based models of hillslope evolution require transport equations relating sediment flux to its major controls. An equation for rain splash transport in the absence of overland flow was constructed by modifying an approach developed by Reeve (1982) and parameterizing it with measurements from single-drop laboratory experiments and simulated rainfall on a grassland in East Africa. The equation relates rain splash to hillslope gradient, the median raindrop diameter of a storm, and ground cover density; the effect of soil texture on detachability can be incorporated from other published results. The spatial and temporal applicability of such an equation for rain splash transport in the absence of overland flow on uncultivated hillslopes can be estimated from hydrological calculations. The predicted transport is lower than landscape-averaged geologic erosion rates from Kenya but is large enough to modify short, slowly eroding natural hillslopes as well as microtopographic interrill surfaces between which overland flow transports the mobilized sediment. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2010

Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration

Shallow rainfall-induced landslides commonly occur under conditions of transient infiltration into initially unsaturated soils. In an effort to predict the timing and location of such landslides, we developed a model of the infiltration process using a two-layer system that consists of an unsaturated zone above a saturated zone and implemented this model in a geographic information system (GIS) framework. The model links analytical solutions for transient, unsaturated, vertical infiltration above the water table to pressure-diffusion solutions for pressure changes below the water table. The solutions are coupled through a transient water table that rises as water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone. This scheme, though limited to simplified soil-water characteristics and moist initial conditions, greatly improves computational efficiency over numerical models in spatially distributed modeling applications. Pore pressures computed by these coupled models are subsequently used in one-dimensional slope-stability computations to estimate the timing and locations of slope failures. Applied over a digital landscape near Seattle, Washington, for an hourly rainfall history known to trigger shallow landslides, the model computes a factor of safety for each grid cell at any time during a rainstorm. The unsaturated layer attenuates and delays the rainfall-induced pore-pressure response of the model at depth, consistent with observations at an instrumented hillside near Edmonds, Washington. This attenuation results in realistic estimates of timing for the onset of slope instability (7 h earlier than observed landslides, on average). By considering the spatial distribution of physical properties, the model predicts the primary source areas of landslides.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2011

Flow structures and sandbar dynamics in a canyon river during a controlled flood, Colorado River, Arizona

In canyon rivers, debris fan constrictions create rapids and downstream pools characterized by secondary flow structures that are closely linked to channel morphology. In this paper we describe detailed measurements of the three‐dimensional flow structure and sandbar dynamics of two pools along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon during a controlled flood release from Glen Canyon Dam. Results indicate that the pools are characterized by large lateral recirculation zones (eddies) resulting from flow separation downstream from the channel constrictions, as well as helical flow structures in the main channel and eddy. The lateral recirculation zones are low‐velocity areas conducive to fine sediment deposition, particularly in the vicinity of the separation and reattachment points and are thus the dominant flow structures controlling sandbar dynamics. The helical flow structures also affect morphology but appear secondary in importance to the lateral eddies. During the controlled flood, sandbars in the separation and reattachment zones at both sites tended to build gradually during the rising limb and peak flow. Deposition in shallow water on the sandbars was accompanied by erosion in deeper water along the sandbar slope at the interface with the main channel. Erosion occurred via rapid mass failures as well as by gradual boundary shear stress driven processes. The flow structures and morphologic links at our study sites are similar to those identified in other river environments, in particular sharply curved meanders and channel confluences where the coexistence of lateral recirculation and helical flows has been documented.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2010

A universal approximation to grain size from images of non-cohesive sediment

The two-dimensional spectral decomposition of an image of sediment provides a direct statistical estimate, grid-by-number style, of the mean of all intermediate axes of all single particles within the image. We develop and test this new method which, unlike existing techniques, requires neither image processing algorithms for detection and measurement of individual grains, nor calibration. The only information required of the operator is the spatial resolution of the image. The method is tested with images of bed sediment from nine different sedimentary environments (five beaches, three rivers, and one continental shelf), across the range 0.1 mm to 150 mm, taken in air and underwater. Each population was photographed using a different camera and lighting conditions. We term it a “universal approximation” because it has produced accurate estimates for all populations we have tested it with, without calibration. We use three approaches (theory, computational experiments, and physical experiments) to both understand and explore the sensitivities and limits of this new method. Based on 443 samples, the root-mean-squared (RMS) error between size estimates from the new method and known mean grain size (obtained from point counts on the image) was found to be ±≈16%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±31% of the true mean grain size (measured in a linear scale). The RMS error reduces to ≈11%, with a 95% probability of estimates within ±20% of the true mean grain size if point counts from a few images are used to correct bias for a specific population of sediment images. It thus appears it is transferable between sedimentary populations with different grain size, but factors such as particle shape and packing may introduce bias which may need to be calibrated for. For the first time, an attempt has been made to mathematically relate the spatial distribution of pixel intensity within the image of sediment to the grain size.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2010

The perfect debris flow? Aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments

Aggregation of data collected in 28 controlled experiments reveals reproducible debris-flow behavior that provides a clear target for model tests. In each experiment ∼10 m 3 of unsorted, water-saturated sediment composed mostly of sand and gravel discharged from behind a gate, descended a steep, 95-m flume, and formed a deposit on a nearly horizontal runout surface. Experiment subsets were distinguished by differing basal boundary conditions (1 versus 16 mm roughness heights) and sediment mud contents (1 versus 7 percent dry weight). Sensor measurements of evolving flow thicknesses, basal normal stresses, and basal pore fluid pressures demonstrate that debris flows in all subsets developed dilated, coarse-grained, high-friction snouts, followed by bodies of nearly liquefied, finer-grained debris. Mud enhanced flow mobility by maintaining high pore pressures in flow bodies, and bed roughness reduced flow speeds but not distances of flow runout. Roughness had these effects because it promoted debris agitation and grain-size segregation, and thereby aided growth of lateral levees that channelized flow. Grain-size segregation also contributed to development of ubiquitous roll waves, which had diverse amplitudes exhibiting fractal number-size distributions. Despite the influence of these waves and other sources of dispersion, the aggregated data have well-defined patterns that help constrain individual terms in a depth-averaged debris-flow model. The patterns imply that local flow resistance evolved together with global flow dynamics, contradicting the hypothesis that any consistent rheology applied. We infer that new evolution equations, not new rheologies, are needed to explain how characteristic debris-flow behavior emerges from the interactions of debris constituents.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2010

Iceberg calving as a primary source of regional‐scale glacier‐generated seismicity in the St. Elias Mountains, Alaska

Since the installation of the Alaska Regional Seismic Network in the 1970s, data analysts have noted nontectonic seismic events thought to be related to glacier dynamics. While loose associations with the glaciers of the St. Elias Mountains have been made, no detailed study of the source locations has been undertaken. We performed a two-step investigation surrounding these events, beginning with manual locations that guided an automated detection and event sifting routine. Results from the manual investigation highlight characteristics of the seismic waveforms including single-peaked (narrowband) spectra, emergent onsets, lack of distinct phase arrivals, and a predominant cluster of locations near the calving termini of several neighboring tidewater glaciers. Through these locations, comparison with previous work, analyses of waveform characteristics, frequency-magnitude statistics and temporal patterns in seismicity, we suggest calving as a source for the seismicity. Statistical properties and time series analysis of the event catalog suggest a scale-invariant process that has no single or simple forcing. These results support the idea that calving is often a response to short-lived or localized stress perturbations. Our results demonstrate the utility of passive seismic instrumentation to monitor relative changes in the rate and magnitude of iceberg calving at tidewater glaciers that may be volatile or susceptible to ensuing rapid retreat, especially when existing seismic infrastructure can be used.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Testing statistical self-similarity in the topology of river networks

Recent work has demonstrated that the topological properties of real river networks deviate significantly from predictions of Shreve's random model. At the same time the property of mean self-similarity postulated by Tokunaga's model is well supported by data. Recently, a new class of network model called random self-similar networks (RSN) that combines self-similarity and randomness has been introduced to replicate important topological features observed in real river networks. We investigate if the hypothesis of statistical self-similarity in the RSN model is supported by data on a set of 30 basins located across the continental United States that encompass a wide range of hydroclimatic variability. We demonstrate that the generators of the RSN model obey a geometric distribution, and self-similarity holds in a statistical sense in 26 of these 30 basins. The parameters describing the distribution of interior and exterior generators are tested to be statistically different and the difference is shown to produce the well-known Hack's law. The inter-basin variability of RSN parameters is found to be statistically significant. We also test generator dependence on two climatic indices, mean annual precipitation and radiative index of dryness. Some indication of climatic influence on the generators is detected, but this influence is not statistically significant with the sample size available. Finally, two key applications of the RSN model to hydrology and geomorphology are briefly discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2011

Process-based, morphodynamic hindcast of decadal deposition patterns in San Pablo Bay, California, 1856-1887

This study investigates the possibility of hindcasting-observed decadal-scale morphologic change in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, by means of a 3-D numerical model (Delft3D). The hindcast period, 1856-1887, is characterized by upstream hydraulic mining that resulted in a high sediment input to the estuary. The model includes wind waves, salt water and fresh water interactions, and graded sediment transport, among others. Simplified initial conditions and hydrodynamic forcing were necessary because detailed historic descriptions were lacking. Model results show significant skill. The river discharge and sediment concentration have a strong positive influence on deposition volumes. Waves decrease deposition rates and have, together with tidal movement, the greatest effect on sediment distribution within San Pablo Bay. The applied process-based (or reductionist) modeling approach is valuable once reasonable values for model parameters and hydrodynamic forcing are obtained. Sensitivity analysis reveals the dominant forcing of the system and suggests that the model planform plays a dominant role in the morphodynamic development. A detailed physical explanation of the model outcomes is difficult because of the high nonlinearity of the processes. Process formulation refinement, a more detailed description of the forcing, or further model parameter variations may lead to an enhanced model performance, albeit to a limited extent. The approach potentially provides a sound basis for prediction of future developments. Parallel use of highly schematized box models and a process-based approach as described in the present work is probably the most valuable method to assess decadal morphodynamic development. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

California↗
USGS2009

Fluorescence-based proxies for lignin in freshwater dissolved organic matter

Lignin phenols have proven to be powerful biomarkers in environmental studies; however, the complexity of lignin analysis limits the number of samples and thus spatial and temporal resolution in any given study. In contrast, spectrophotometric characterization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is rapid, noninvasive, relatively inexpensive, requires small sample volumes, and can even be measured in situ to capture fine-scale temporal and spatial detail of DOM cycling. Here we present a series of cross-validated Partial Least Squares models that use fluorescence properties of DOM to explain up to 91% of lignin compositional and concentration variability in samples collected seasonally over 2 years in the Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta in California, United States. These models were subsequently used to predict lignin composition and concentration from fluorescence measurements collected during a diurnal study in the San Joaquin River. While modeled lignin composition remained largely unchanged over the diurnal cycle, changes in modeled lignin concentrations were much greater than expected and indicate that the sensitivity of fluorescence-based proxies for lignin may prove invaluable as a tool for selecting the most informative samples for detailed lignin characterization. With adequate calibration, similar models could be used to significantly expand our ability to study sources and processing of DOM in complex surface water systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

Source water controls on the character and origin of dissolved organic matter in streams of the Yukon River basin, Alaska

Climate warming and permafrost degradation at high latitudes will likely impact watershed hydrology, and consequently, alter the concentration and character of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in northern rivers. We examined seasonal variation of DOC chemistry in 16 streams of the Yukon River basin, Alaska. Our primary objective was to evaluate the relationship between source water (shallow versus deep groundwater flow paths) and DOC chemical composition. Using base cation chemistry and principal component analysis, we observed high contributions of deep groundwater to glacial and clearwater streams, whereas blackwater streams received larger contributions from shallow groundwater sources. DOC concentration and specific ultraviolet absorbance peaked during spring snowmelt in all streams, and were consistently higher in blackwater streams than in glacial and clearwater streams. The hydrophobic acid fraction of DOC dominated across all streams and seasons, comprising between 35% and 56% of total DOC. The hydrophilic acid fraction of DOC was more prominent in glacial (23% ± 3%) and clearwater streams (19% ± 1%) than in blackwater streams (16% ± 1%), and was enriched during winter base flow (29% ± 1%) relative to snowmelt and summer base flow. We observed that an increase in the contribution of deep groundwater to streamflow resulted in decreased DOC concentration, aromaticity, and DOC-to-dissolved organic nitrogen ratio, and an increase in the proportion of hydrophilic acids relative to hydrophobic acids. Our findings suggest that future permafrost degradation and higher contributions of groundwater to streamflow may result in a higher fraction of labile DOM in streams of the Yukon basin.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

A model‐data intercomparison of CO2 exchange across North America: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

Our current understanding of terrestrial carbon processes is represented in various models used to integrate and scale measurements of CO 2 exchange from remote sensing and other spatiotemporal data. Yet assessments are rarely conducted to determine how well models simulate carbon processes across vegetation types and environmental conditions. Using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program we compare observed and simulated monthly CO 2 exchange from 44 eddy covariance flux towers in North America and 22 terrestrial biosphere models. The analysis period spans ∼220 site‐years, 10 biomes, and includes two large‐scale drought events, providing a natural experiment to evaluate model skill as a function of drought and seasonality. We evaluate models' ability to simulate the seasonal cycle of CO 2 exchange using multiple model skill metrics and analyze links between model characteristics, site history, and model skill. Overall model performance was poor; the difference between observations and simulations was ∼10 times observational uncertainty, with forested ecosystems better predicted than nonforested. Model‐data agreement was highest in summer and in temperate evergreen forests. In contrast, model performance declined in spring and fall, especially in ecosystems with large deciduous components, and in dry periods during the growing season. Models used across multiple biomes and sites, the mean model ensemble, and a model using assimilated parameter values showed high consistency with observations. Models with the highest skill across all biomes all used prescribed canopy phenology, calculated NEE as the difference between GPP and ecosystem respiration, and did not use a daily time step.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

The North American upper mantle: Density, composition, and evolution

The upper mantle of North America has been well studied using various seismic methods. Here we investigate the density structure of the North American (NA) upper mantle based on the integrative use of the gravity field and seismic data. The basis of our study is the removal of the gravitational effect of the crust to determine the mantle gravity anomalies. The effect of the crust is removed in three steps by subtracting the gravitational contributions of (1) topography and bathymetry, (2) low-density sedimentary accumulations, and (3) the three-dimensional density structure of the crystalline crust as determined by seismic observations. Information regarding sedimentary accumulations, including thickness and density, are taken from published maps and summaries of borehole measurements of densities; the seismic structure of the crust is based on a recent compilation, with layer densities estimated from P-wave velocities. The resultant mantle gravity anomaly map shows a pronounced negative anomaly (−50 to −400 mGal) beneath western North America and the adjacent oceanic region and positive anomalies (+50 to +350 mGal) east of the NA Cordillera. This pattern reflects the well-known division of North America into the stable eastern region and the tectonically active western region. The close correlation of large-scale features of the mantle anomaly map with those of the topographic map indicates that a significant amount of the topographic uplift in western NA is due to buoyancy in the hot upper mantle, a conclusion supported by previous investigations. To separate the contributions of mantle temperature anomalies from mantle compositional anomalies, we apply an additional correction to the mantle anomaly map for the thermal structure of the uppermost mantle. The thermal model is based on the conversion of seismic shear-wave velocities to temperature and is consistent with mantle temperatures that are independently estimated from heat flow and heat production data. The thermally corrected mantle density map reveals density anomalies that are chiefly due to compositional variations. These compositional density anomalies cause gravitational anomalies that reach ~250 mGal. A pronounced negative anomaly (−50 to −200 mGal) is found over the Canadian shield, which is consistent with chemical depletion and a corresponding low density of the lithospheric mantle, also referred to as the mantle tectosphere. The strongest positive anomaly is coincident with the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a positive density anomaly in the upper mantle, possibly an eclogite layer that has caused subsidence in the Gulf. Two linear positive anomalies are also seen south of 40°N: one with a NE-SW trend in the eastern United States, roughly coincident with the Grenville-Appalachians, and a second with a NW-SE trend beneath the states of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. These anomalies are interpreted as being due to (1) the presence of remnants of an oceanic slab in the upper mantle beneath the Grenville-Appalachian suture and (2) mantle thickening caused by a period of shallow, flat subduction during the Laramie orogeny, respectively. Based on these geophysical results, the evolution of the NA upper mantle is depicted in a series of maps and cartoons that display the primary processes that have formed and modified the NA crust and lithospheric upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2010

On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

Most models of lower crust/mantle viscosity inferred from postearthquake relaxation assume one or two uniform-viscosity layers. A few existing models possess apparently significant radially variable viscosity structure in the shallow mantle (e.g., the upper 200 km), but the resolution of such variations is not clear. We use a geophysical inverse procedure to address the resolving power of inferred shallow mantle viscosity structure using postearthquake relaxation data. We apply this methodology to 9 years of GPS-constrained crustal motions after the 16 October 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. After application of a differencing method to isolate the postearthquake signal from the “background” crustal velocity field, we find that surface velocities diminish from ∼20 mm/yr in the first few months to ≲2 mm/yr after 2 years. Viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle, with a time-dependent effective viscosity prescribed by a Burgers body, provides a good explanation for the postseismic crustal deformation, capturing both the spatial and temporal pattern. In the context of the Burgers body model (which involves a transient viscosity and steady state viscosity), a resolution analysis based on the singular value decomposition reveals that at most, two constraints on depth-dependent steady state mantle viscosity are provided by the present data set. Uppermost mantle viscosity (depth ≲ 60 km) is moderately resolved, but deeper viscosity structure is poorly resolved. The simplest model that explains the data better than that of uniform steady state mantle viscosity involves a linear gradient in logarithmic viscosity with depth, with a small increase from the Moho to 220 km depth. However, the viscosity increase is not statistically significant. This suggests that the depth-dependent steady state viscosity is not resolvably different from uniformity in the uppermost mantle.

California↗
USGS2011

Seismic swarm associated with the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Volcano, Alaska: earthquake locations and source parameters

An energetic seismic swarm accompanied an eruption of Kasatochi Volcano in the central Aleutian volcanic arc in August of 2008. In retrospect, the first earthquakes in the swarm were detected about 1 month prior to the eruption onset. Activity in the swarm quickly intensified less than 48 h prior to the first large explosion and subsequently subsided with decline of eruptive activity. The largest earthquake measured as moment magnitude 5.8, and a dozen additional earthquakes were larger than magnitude 4. The swarm exhibited both tectonic and volcanic characteristics. Its shear failure earthquake features were b value = 0.9, most earthquakes with impulsive P and S arrivals and higher-frequency content, and earthquake faulting parameters consistent with regional tectonic stresses. Its volcanic or fluid-influenced seismicity features were volcanic tremor, large CLVD components in moment tensor solutions, and increasing magnitudes with time. Earthquake location tests suggest that the earthquakes occurred in a distributed volume elongated in the NS direction either directly under the volcano or within 5-10 km south of it. Following the M W 5.8 event, earthquakes occurred in a new crustal volume slightly east and north of the previous earthquakes. The central Aleutian Arc is a tectonically active region with seismicity occurring in the crusts of the Pacific and North American plates in addition to interplate events. We postulate that the Kasatochi seismic swarm was a manifestation of the complex interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes in the Earth's crust. Although magmatic intrusion triggered the earthquakes in the swarm, the earthquakes failed in context of the regional stress field.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Analysis of nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA using U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array

Reports by Nadeau and Dolenc (2005) that tremor had been detected near Cholame Valley spawned an effort to use UPSAR (U. S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array) to study characteristics of tremor. UPSAR was modified to record three channels of velocity at 40–50 sps continuously in January 2005 and ran for about 1 month, during which time we recorded numerous episodes of tremor. One tremor, on 21 January at 0728, was recorded with particularly high signal levels as well as another episode 3 days later. Both events were very emergent, had a frequency content between 2 and 8 Hz, and had numerous high-amplitude, short-duration arrivals within the tremor signal. Here using the first episode as an example, we discuss an analysis procedure, which yields azimuth and apparent velocity of the tremor at UPSAR. We then provide locations for both tremor episodes. The emphasis here is how the tremor episode evolves. Twelve stations were operating at the time of recording. Slowness of arrivals was determined using cross correlation of pairs of stations; the same method used in analyzing the main shock data from 28 September 2004. A feature of this analysis is that 20 s of the time series were used at a time to calculate correlation; the longer windows resulted in more consistent estimates of slowness, but lower peak correlations. These values of correlation (peaks of about 0.25), however, are similar to that obtained for the S wave of a microearthquake. Observed peaks in slowness were traced back to source locations assumed to lie on the San Andreas fault. Our inferred locations for the two tremor events cluster near the locations of previously observed tremor, south of the Cholame Valley. Tremor source depths are in the 14–24 km range, which is below the seismogenic brittle zone, but above the Moho. Estimates of error do not preclude locations below the Moho, however. The tremor signal is very emergent but contains packets that are several times larger than the background tremor signal and lasts about 5 s. These impulsive wavelets are similar to low-frequency earthquakes signals seen in Japan but appear to be broader band rather than just higher in low-frequency energy. They may be more appropriately called high-energy tremor (HET). HET signals at UPSAR correlate well with the record of this event from station GHIB of the HRSN borehole array at Parkfield and HETs typically have a higher cross-correlation coefficient than the rest of the tremor event. The amplitudes of a large HET are consistent with a magnitude of 0.1 when compared with a M2.3 event that had about the same epicenter. Polarizations of the tremor episode at UPSAR are mostly just north of east. Both linearity and azimuth evolve over time suggesting a change in tremor source location over time and linearity is typically higher at the HETs.

California↗
USGS2011

Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate‐ and state‐dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space‐time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M ≥ 1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗