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USGS2013

Dispersal of fine sediment in nearshore coastal waters

Fine sediment (silt and clay) plays an important role in the physical, ecological, and environmental conditions of coastal systems, yet little is known about the dispersal and fate of fine sediment across coastal margin settings outside of river mouths. Here I provide simple physical scaling and detailed monitoring of a beach nourishment project near Imperial Beach, California, with a high portion of fines (40% silt and clay by weight). These results provide insights into the pathways and residence times of fine sediment transport across a wave-dominated coastal margin. Monitoring of the project used physical, optical, acoustic, and remote sensing techniques to track the fine portion of the nourishment sediment. The initial transport of fine sediment from the beach was influenced strongly by longshore currents of the surf zone that were established in response to the approach angles of the waves. The mean residence time of fine sediment in the surf zone—once it was suspended—was approximately 1 hour, and rapid decreases in surf zone fine sediment concentrations along the beach resulted from mixing and offshore transport in turbid rip heads. For example, during a day with oblique wave directions and surf zone longshore currents of approximately 25 cm/s, the offshore losses of fine sediment in rips resulted in a 95% reduction in alongshore surf zone fine sediment flux within 1 km of the nourishment site. However, because of the direct placement of nourishment sediment on the beach, fine suspended-sediment concentrations in the swash zone remained elevated for several days after nourishment, while fine sediment was winnowed from the beach. Once offshore of the surf zone, fine sediment settled downward in the water column and was observed to transport along and across the inner shelf. Vertically sheared currents influenced the directions and rates of fine sediment transport on the shelf. Sedimentation of fine sediment was greatest on the seafloor directly offshore of the nourishment site. However, a mass balance of sediment suggests that the majority of the fine sediment moved far away (over 2 km) from the nourishment site or to water depths greater than 10 m, where fine sediment represents a substantial portion of the bed material. Thus, the fate of fine sediment in nearshore waters was influenced strongly by wave conditions, surf zone and rip current transport, and the vertical density and flow conditions of coastal waters.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS1986

This week?s Citation Classic: 'Stickel, L. F. A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals. J. Mammalogy 35: 1-15, 1954.'

During my first employment as a junior biologist conducting food habits analyses at the Patuxent Research Refuge (now Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the first station director, Arnold L. Nelson, gave each staff biologist the opportunity to spend a little time conducting field studies on the 2,600-acre research area. These studies were to help in ecological evaluation of the area, but also, no doubt, functioned as a morale builder for biologists daily engaged in difficult, demanding and confining laboratory work. I undertook to measure the population density of small mammals in different habitats. The state-of-the-art methods recommended to me and prevalent in the literature worried me, especially after preliminary field work. Reading the classic, paper by W.H. Burt [Terrioriality and home range concepts as applied to mammals. J. Mammalogy 24:346-352, 1943] was a turning point for me in seeing that knowledge of home-range size was the key to measuring population density. My first papers employed these concepts in field evaluations. However, they could give-only limited attention to the question of how home ranges could be measured. Furthermore, the importance of knowledge of the home range to habitat evaluation and to understanding animal behavior was becoming increasingly apparent. Advocacy of many different methods of measuring home ranges appeared in the literature. It did not seem possible to evaluate them objectively. It occurred to me that artificial populations could be used to help in understanding the mechanisms of measuring home ranges. The effects of random trap-visiting, bias toward central traps, trap-spacing, range shape, and other factors could be considered. So grids of traps were inked onto oversize graph paper, and simulated ranges were cut from plastic to be tossed as randomly as possible on the trap-grids. It was a slow, laborious job. Analysis showed that random captures in artificial populations produced patterns that were similar in many ways to those observed in field studies; the necessity of appropriate trap-spacing in relation to range size became obvious. Some commonly used methods of expressing range size proved to be clearly superior to others. However, the artificial populations could not fully simulate actual populations, where use patterns changed as conditions changed and the ?boundaries? of ranges tended to shift continuously or with time. Progress was made, but problems remained. I suspect that the reasons the paper has been cited frequently rest on the continuing interest in home-range behavior and the continuing difficulty in field evaluations, despite the many advances in observational methodology. The sophisticated techniques that became possible with the use of computers [R.I. Jennrich and F.B. Turner. Measurement of non-circular home range. J. Theor. Biol 23:227-237, 1969] also presented new possibilities for analysis and understanding of home-range characteristics and created a resurgence of interest in home-range behavior and its biological significance.

Current Contents / Agriculture, Biology & Environm↗

USGS2016

Osmoregulatory physiology and rapid evolution of salinity tolerance in threespine stickleback recently introduced to fresh water

Background: Post-Pleistocene diversification of threespine stickleback in fresh water offers a valuable opportunity to study how changes in environmental salinity shape physiological evolution in fish. In Alaska, the presence of both ancestral oceanic populations and derived landlocked populations, including recent lake introductions, allows us to examine rates and direction of evolution of osmoregulation following halohabitat transition. Hypotheses: Strong selection for enhanced freshwater tolerance will improve survival of recently lake-introduced stickleback in ion-poor conditions compared with their oceanic ancestors. Trade-offs between osmoregulation in fresh water and seawater will allow members of the ancestral population to survive better in response to seawater challenge, as mediated by upregulating salt-secreting transporters in the gill. Poorer hypo-osmoregulatory performance of derived fish will be marked by higher levels of taurine and other organic osmolytes. Methods: We reared clutches at a common salinity from an anadromous and a descendant population, Scout Lake, which has been landlocked for only two generations. We challenged 6-week-old juveniles with extreme low and high salinity treatments and sampled fish over 10 days to investigate putative molecular mechanisms underlying differences in halotolerance. We measured whole-body organic osmolyte content as well as gill Na + /K + -ATPase (NKA) activity and Na + /K + /2Cl − cotransporter (NKCC) protein abundance. Other juveniles from these populations and also from Cheney Lake, a fourth-generation landlocked descendant, were gradually salt-acclimated to determine maximum halotolerance limits. Results: Scout Lake stickleback exhibited 67% higher survival in fresh water than the ancestral anadromous population, but individuals from both groups exhibited similar seawater tolerance. Likewise, the gradual salinity threshold for each population was equivalent (71 ppt). Gill NKA activity and NKCC abundance were both higher in seawater-challenged fish, but did not differ between populations. Sticklebacks from both populations responded to acute salinity stress by transiently increasing osmolyte levels in seawater and decreasing them in fresh water. Conclusion: Enhanced freshwater tolerance has evolved rapidly in recently landlocked stickleback compared with their anadromous ancestors (0.569 haldanes), but the former have retained ancestral seawater-osmoregulatory function.

Evolutionary Ecology Research↗

USGS2022

Fishway Entrance Palisade

This technical report summarizes the work that was conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), along with other project partners, on the Fishway Entrance Palisade (EP), a projected funded through the Department of Energy’s (DOE) funding opportunity titled ‘Innovative Solutions for Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams’ (DE‐FOA‐0001662). The period of performance ranged from September 1, 2018 through September 30, 2021. The EP is a novel fish passage engineering technology designed to provide more favorable entry conditions for fish and to reduce costs relative to conventional fishway auxiliary water systems (AWS). The EP project has four primary components. First, the Northeast United States Auxiliary Water Systems Database was created (Northeast Fishway Auxiliary Water Systems Database Section). The database, developed with material provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, contains information on fishway type (e.g., lift, Denil, pool and weir) and Auxiliary Water System (AWS) details (e.g., water conveyance method, diffuser type) for 60 hydroelectric sites in the region. Findings indicate that nearly 4 out of every 10 fishway in the region is a fish lift and approximately 1 out of every 4 is a Denil ladder. The remainder are a mix of vertical slot fishways, pool and weirs, and Ice Harbor fishways. Furthermore, over half of all AWS systems use floor diffusers to discharge the auxiliary (or attraction) water into the entrance of a fishway, whereas only 14% use wall diffusers. Second, limited experiments on a conventional AWS with live, actively migrating fish were conducted at the USGS Easter Ecological Science Center (EESC) S.O. Conte Research Laboratory (Conventional Auxiliary Water System Experiments Section). This study determined how water velocity through a wall diffuser, without turning vanes or timber baffles to distribute the flow, affects the behavior and passage of adult American shad, a conservative surrogate species for migratory fish on the East Coast. Two gross diffuser velocity treatments were examined, 0.5 ft/s and 1.0 ft/s. These wall diffuser velocities represented current (0.5 ft/s) and past (1.0 ft/s) design criteria guidelines set forth by the USFWS North Atlantic-Appalachian Region (Rojas 2020; USFWS 2019). Six trials with a total of 151 American Shad were conducted in June of 2019 for the two treatments. No differences in American shad passage efficiency were discovered between the two treatments, while approximately 3 in every 4 attempts were successful at passing the diffuser. While these results may appear to indicate that the generally accepted gross wall diffuser velocity criteria for American shad of 0.5 ft/s could be safely increased to 1.0 ft/s, further analysis is warranted. Furthermore, it is unknown how other migratory and resident fish species that traverse these structures would be impacted by such a change. Studying the wall diffuser hydraulics led to an important AWS observation. Without turning vanes or timber baffles in this study, doubling the diffuser area was insufficient at producing the type of flow field change one may expect by halving the gross diffuser velocity. Instead, the flow fields throughout each treatments study area were similar, which led to similar results in shad performance. This not only highlights the importance of installing flow guidance devices like turning vanes, but also to the importance of properly maintaining them, which can be costly. Third, more expansive experiments on the novel EP were conducted in the spring of 2019 and 2021 (Fishway Entrance Palisade Experiments). The goal of this study was to determine how adult American shad responded to a variety of conditions at a full-scale EP. A total of six treatments were examined by changing the average auxiliary channel velocity between 1.0 and 5.0 ft/s in intervals of 1.0 ft/s and by inserting/removing an entrance gate at the opening of the fishway. Thirty trials with a total of 1,273 shad were conducted over the two years. In all treatments, at least ~7 out of every 10 fish successfully passed the EP diffuser and swam into the entrance channel within the 3.5-hour long trial, highlighting the general effectiveness of the novel AWS technology. In both study years, lower velocities through the EP diffuser led to increased shad performance, though performance peaked for the 2 ft/s velocity treatment. This treatment condition represents an approximate six-fold increase in gross diffuser velocity relative to conventional auxiliary water systems, which in turn presents opportunities for cost savings (e.g., reduction in diffuser size). Shad performance, in general, was worse in 2019 than in 2021, potentially due to the different run timing when our trials were conducted (2019 trials occurred near the end of the migration season, unlike in 2021). Treatments in 2019 had approximately a 20% reduction in entrance efficiency by the trial end, including a 16.7% drop for the 3 ft/s velocity treatment in 2019 relative to 2021 (the only carryover treatment between years). Lastly, adding an entrance gate caused a significant delay to entry. The time to 25% entry raised ~20 minutes from the near instantaneous 25% entry that was reported for the other treatments conducted in the same year (2021). Though by the end of the 3.5-hour trial, the overall entrance efficiency nearly matched those of the other 2021 treatments. The fourth and final component of the EP project was an economic analysis that focused on the cost of attraction and environmental flows (Modeling Power Generation Losses Due to Environmental and Fish Passage Attraction Flows at a Run-Of-River Hydroelectric Operation in the Northeast). The study assessed the economic impact of meeting environmental flow requirements at a representative hydroelectric facility and fish lift in the Northeast. An initial finding of the study was that there is a paucity of published data on the costs of meeting attraction and environmental flows. This is due, in part, to the proprietary nature of this data. To explore the costs associated with these flows, three types of environmental flows were assessed: upstream fishway attraction flows, downstream fishway attraction flows, and habitat maintenance minimum flows. A physics-based model was developed and calibrated with three years of hourly generation and flow data as inputs. Gage flow inputs were adjusted and used to calculate power generated. To address hydrologic variability, the model was executed to simulate 30 years of historical flows. Results indicate that both interannual and seasonal climatic factors impact the costs of meeting environmental flow requirements. Generation potential is most strongly curtailed during dry years in terms of maximizing the capacity factor (the percent of time a plant generates at capacity). Dry years, and especially dry summers, have the most significant costs associated with mitigation flows. Of the three types of flows, habitat flows are most costly in terms of power production, followed by upstream attraction flows. Downstream attraction flows are least costly. This finding is the likely result of differences in both flow rates and duration of the seasonal requirement for each flow. Overall, environmental flows represented a 2-12% loss in annual generation, but losses during a dry summer can reach over 20%.

Final Technical Report↗

USGS2010

Grassland birds wintering at U.S. Navy facilities in southern Texas

Grassland birds have undergone widespread decline throughout North America during the past several decades. Causes of this decline include habitat loss and fragmentation because of conversion of grasslands to cropland, afforestation in the East, brush and shrub invasion in the Southwest and western United States, and planting of exotic grass species to enhance forage production. A large number of exotic plant species, including grasses, have been introduced in North America, but most research on the effects of these invasions on birds has been limited to breeding birds, primarily those in northern latitudes. Research on the effects of exotic grasses on birds in winter has been extremely limited. This is the first study in southern Texas to examine and compare winter bird responses to native and exotic grasslands. This study was conducted during a period of six years (2003–2009) on United States Navy facilities in southern Texas including Naval Air Station–Corpus Christi, Naval Air Station–Kingsville, Naval Auxiliary Landing Field Waldron, Naval Auxiliary Landing Field Orange Grove, and Escondido Ranch, all of which contained examples of native grasslands, exotic grasslands, or both. Data from native and exotic grasslands were collected and compared for bird abundance and diversity; ground cover, vegetation density, and floristic diversity; bird and vegetation relationships; diversity of insects and arachnids; and seed abundance and diversity. Effects of management treatments in exotic grasslands were evaluated by comparing numbers and diversity of birds and small mammals in mowed, burned, and control areas. To determine bird abundance and bird species richness, birds were surveyed monthly (December–February) during the winters of 2003–2008 in transects (100 meter × 20 meter) located in native and exotic grasslands distributed at all five U.S. Navy facilities. To compare vegetation in native and exotic grasslands, vegetation characteristics were measured during 2003–2008 in the same transects used for bird surveys and included five measures of ground cover, plus estimates of plant species richness, vegetation density (visual obstruction) at two different heights, and shrub numbers. These data, plus seasonal rainfall, were then used to evaluate components of variation in native and exotic grasslands. Relations between total bird numbers and bird species richness with environmental variation in native and exotic grasslands were compared. To compare diversity of arthropods in native and exotic grasslands, insects and arachnids were collected using three different methodologies (standardized sweep-net, random sweep-net, and pitfall traps) during four seasons, (2005–2006), at Naval Air Station–Corpus Christi, Naval Auxiliary Landing Field Waldron, and Naval Air Station–Kingsville. To compare seed abundance and diversity between native and exotic grasslands, seeds were collected for two winters (2004–2006) at Naval Air Station–Corpus Christi and Naval Air Station–Kingsville. To evaluate effects of management on grassland vertebrates, abundance and diversity of birds and small mammals were estimated and compared in exotic grasses subjected to mowing, burning, or no active management (control) for one full year (2008–2009). Observations were made of 1,044 birds of 30 species in grassland transects during five winters. The Savannah Sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ) was the most common bird, which, with 644 detections, accounted for 63 percent of all individuals identified to species. Meadowlarks ( Sturnella spp. ) and Le Conte’s Sparrows ( Ammodramus leconteii ) were the second (10 percent) and third (7 percent) most abundant bird species, respectively. Six of the seven most abundant species detected in grasslands were grassland species, and their numbers accounted for 87 percent of all birds, but 20 of the 30 species (67 percent) that used grasslands were not grassland species. Seven species observed in grassland transects during the study were Species of Conservation Concern: Le Conte’s Sparrow, Sedge Wren ( Cistothorus platensis ), Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ), Long-billed Curlew ( Numenius americanus ), Sprague’s Pipit ( Anthus spragueii ), Cassin’s Sparrow ( Aimophila cassinii ), and Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ). Native grasslands consistently supported greater bird species richness than exotic grasslands. In one winter, exotic grasslands supported more birds than native grasslands. Native grasslands were determined to have more forb cover, more bare ground, and greater plant species richness than exotic grasslands, whereas exotic grasslands were characterized by more grass cover and relatively greater vegetation density during dry years. Not only did these individual measures differ between native and exotic grasslands, but components of variation also differed. In native grasslands, grass density and cover contributed more to variation, whereas in exotic grasslands, non-grass vegetation was a greater component of variation. Total bird numbers and bird species richness in native grasslands were related to the principal component that contained a measure of litter cover. Total bird numbers and bird species richness in exotic grasslands indicated no significant relationships with any of the principal components of variation. The two most common insect orders in native grasslands were Hymenoptera and Coleoptera, which accounted for 42 percent of all insects. The two most common insect orders in exotic grasslands were Hemiptera and Homoptera, which accounted for about 80 percent of all insects. Insect family richness was greater in exotic grasslands than in native grasslands in two of four seasons. Proportions of arachnid families were similar in native and exotic grasslands, but arachnid family richness was greater in exotic grasslands than in native grasslands. Abundance of seeds was greater in exotic than in native grasslands. However, seed diversity was greater in native grasslands than in exotic grasslands. Among the three types of management (mowed, burned, and control) applied to exotic grasses, birds were most abundant in the mowed area. Sedge Wrens, however, were never encountered in mowed sites. Meadowlarks were similarly abundant in all treatments, but Le Conte’s Sparrows were detected only in the control (unmanaged) area. Hispid cotton rats ( Sigmodon hispidus ) accounted for 93 percent of all rodent captures, with the number of captures peaking December through February. Hispid cotton rat numbers and total rodent numbers were greatest in control and pre-burn areas, and lowest in the mowed area. Mammal diversity, however, was greatest in the mowed habitat. Native and exotic grasslands differed essentially in all categories (bird numbers and diversity, vegetation characteristics, components of variation, diversity of insects and arachnids, and seed abundance and diversity) used to measure and compare them. This indicates that fundamental ecosystem processes have been altered after native grasslands have undergone invasion and ultimate domination by exotic grass species. Future research in Texas grassland ecosystems is essential because: 1) Texas sustains more area in grasslands than any other state or province in the Central Flyway; 2) Texas serves as the winter destination or migration pathway for hundreds of species of birds, including winter residents and Neotropical migrants; 3) ecology, distribution, and numbers of grassland birds wintering in southern latitudes of the United States remains poorly understood; and 4) climate change threatens to further accelerate advances of invading grass species.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

Learning to be different: Acquired skills, social learning, frequency dependence, and environmental variation can cause behaviourally mediated foraging specializations

Question: How does the ability to improve foraging skills by learning, and to transfer that learned knowledge, affect the development of intra-population foraging specializations? Features of the model: We use both a state-dependent life-history model implemented by stochastic dynamic programming (SDPM) and an individual-based model (IBM) to capture the dynamic nature of behavioural preferences in feeding. Variables in the SDPM include energy reserves, skill levels, energy and handling time per single prey item, metabolic rate, the rates at which skills are learned and forgotten, the effect of skills on handling time, and the relationship between energy reserves and fitness. Additional variables in the IBM include the probability of successful weaning, the logistic dynamics of the prey species with stochastic recruitment, the intensity of top-down control of prey by predators, the mean and variance in skill levels of new recruits, and the extent to which learned Information can be transmitted via matrilineal social learning. Key range of variables: We explore the effects of approaching the time horizon in the SDPM, changing the extent to which skills can improve with experience, increasing the rates of learning or forgetting of skills, changing whether the learning curve is constant, accelerating (T-shaped) or decelerating ('r'-shaped), changing both mean and maximum possible energy reserves, changing metabolic costs of foraging, and changing the rate of encounter with prey. Conclusions: The model results show that the following factors increase the degree of prey specialization observed in a predator population: (1) Experience handling a prey type can substantially improve foraging skills for that prey. (2) There is limited ability to retain complex learned skills for multiple prey types. (3) The learning curve for acquiring new foraging skills is accelerating, or J-shaped. (4) The metabolic costs of foraging are high relative to available energy reserves. (5) Offspring can learn foraging skills from their mothers (matrilineal social learning). (6) Food abundance is limited, such that average individual energy reserves are low Additionally, the following factors increase the likelihood of alternative specializations co-occurring in a predator population: (1) The predator exerts effective top-down control of prey abundance, resulting in frequency-dependent dynamics. (2) There is stochastic Variation in prey population dynamics, but this Variation is neither too extreme in magnitude nor too 'slow' with respect to the time required for an individual forager to learn new foraging skills. For a given predator population, we deduce that the degree of specialization will be highest for those prey types requiring complex capture or handling skills, while prey species that are both profitable and easy to capture and handle will be included in the diet of all individuals. Frequency-dependent benefits of selecting alternative prey types, combined with the ability of foragers to improve their foraging skills by learning, and transmit learned skills to offspring, can result in behaviourally mediated foraging specialization, and also lead to the co-existence of alternative specializations. The extent of such specialization is predicted to be a variable trait, increasing in locations or years when intra-specific competition is high relative to inter-specific competition. ?? 2009 M. Tim Tinker.

Evolutionary Ecology Research↗

USGS2009

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1. Puget Sound is a deep, fjord-type estuary covering an area of 2,330 km 2 in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (fig. 1). It is connected to the ocean by the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a turbulent passage approximately 160 km in length and 22 km wide at its west end, expanding to over 40 km wide at its east end (Thomson, 1994). During the Pleistocene, the area was occupied several times by lobes of continental ice, resulting in a complex basin-fill of glacial and interglacial deposits that are locally as thick as 1100 m (Johnson and others, 2001). The last glaciation, called the Fraser glaciation, began after 28,800±740 14 C yr B.P. when ice started a slow expansion (Clague, 1981). At peak advance the westward Juan de Fuca lobe reached the edge of the continental shelf through the Juan de Fuca Strait shortly before 14,460±200 14 C yr B.P. (Herzer and Bornhold, 1982). The southward Puget lobe advanced to its terminal position in Puget Sound by around 14,150 14 C yr B.P. (Porter and Swanson, 1998). Ice retreated from its maximum to northern Whidbey Island by 13,650±350 14 C yr B.P. (Dethier and others, 1995). Retreating glaciers resulted in a thick sequence of ice-contact, glacial-marine sediment, and early post-glacial sediments (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). These deposits have experienced the effects of a marine transgression followed by regression, resulting in a sea-level several tens of meters lower than the present day (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). A second transgression brought sea level to about the present level by around 5,470±120 14 C yr B.P. (Clague and others, 1982) establishing the present oceanographic and geologic environment Puget Sound is separated into four interconnected basins; Whidbey, Central (Main), Hood Canal, and South (Thomson, 1994). The Whidbey, Central, and Hood Canal basins are the three main branches of the Puget Sound estuary and are separated from the Strait of Juan de Fuca by a double sill at Admiralty Inlet. The Admiralty Inlet map area includes the Inlet and a portion of the Whidbey Basin (fig. 1). The shallower South Basin is separated by a sill at Tacoma Narrows and is highly branched with numerous finger inlets. Flow within Puget Sound is dominated by tidal currents of as much as 1 m/s at Admiralty Inlet, reducing to approximately 0.5 m/s in the Central Basin (Lavelle and others, 1988). The lack of silt and clay-sized sediments in the Admiralty Inlet map area is likely a result of the strong currents (see Ground-Truth Studies for the Admiralty Inlet Map Area, sheet 3). The subtidal component of flow reaches approximately 0.1 m/s and is driven by density gradients arising from the contrast in salty ocean water at the entrance and freshwater inputs from stream flow (Lavelle and others, 1988). The total freshwater input to Puget Sound is approximately 3.4 x 10 6 m 3 /day, primarily from the Skagit River (Cannon, 1983). The subtidal circulation mostly consists of a two-layered flow in the basins with fresher water exiting at the surface and saltier water entering at depth (Ebbesmeyer and Cannon, 2001). In general, surface waters flow north and deeper waters flow south; variations arise from wind effects that can drive a surface current in the same direction as the wind, and a baroclinic response in the lower layer to about 100-m depth (Matsuura and Cannon, 1997). Oceanographic properties are influenced by temporal forcing parameters such as reduced stream flow during the 2000-01 drought that increased surface salinity and decreased differences between surface and bottom waters (Newton and others, 2003). On offshore seismic-reflection profiles, Pleistocene strata (excluding latest Pleistocene glacial and post-glacial deposits) form a distinct seismic unit, bounded below by pre-Tertiary or Tertiary basement and above by typically flat-lying latest Pleistocene to Holocene deposits that fill in erosional or depositional relief (Johnson and others, 2001). Cores from central Puget Sound have accumulation rates that range from 85 to 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr, or 0.12 to 2.4 cm/yr; the highest accumulation rates are near the southern end of central Puget Sound (Carpenter and others, 1985). Carpenter and others (1985) un-weighted arithmetic mean of accumulation rates for central Puget Sound deeper stations is 480±340 (± one standard deviation) mg/cm 2 /yr. Lavelle and others (1985) also found rates as high as 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr over the past approximately 70 years in cores in the Central Basin off of and north and south of Elliott Bay. Puget Sound basin rates are comparable to rates in midshelf silt deposits on the Washington coast north of the Columbia River (Nittrouer and others, 1979). The deep subtidal (in other words, below SCUBA depths) habitats of Puget Sound are relatively poorly known. A few subtidal surveys exist for several habitat types from the 1960s and 1970s (reviewed in Dethier, 1990), using grab and box core data. The Dethier (1990) review divides habitat up into Coast and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) substrate, water column energy, and depth zones but does not attempt to map these habitats, rather it is an inventory of habitats found in the area and the flora and fauna associated with each habitat. The approach of the Southern Salish Sea Mapping project is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, and bottom-sediment sampling data. This approach is based in part on methods presented and data collection and product needs identified at the Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop (Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop Steering Committee, 2008), attended by coastal and marine managers and scientists. The map products display seafloor geomorphology and substrate, and identify potential marine benthic habitats. It is emphasized that the more interpretive habitat and geology maps rely on the integration of multiple, new high-resolution datasets and that mapping at small scales would not be possible without such data. Oceanographic current and wave data is not included in this analysis, however, the accompanying geographic information system (GIS) data set is designed and intended to be combined with oceanographic and biologic data sets assembled by others in the future and some of the GIS data has already been incorporated in the unpublished Nature Conservancy Benthic Habitats of Puget Sound database. This publication includes four map sheets, explanatory text, and a descriptive pamphlet. Each map sheet is published as a portable document format (PDF) file. ESRI ArcGIS compatible geotiffs (for example, bathymetry) and shapefiles (for example video observation points) will be available for download in the data catalog associated with this publication (Cochrane, 2015). An ArcGIS Project File with the symbology used to generate the map sheets is also provided. For those who do not own the full suite of ESRI GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using ESRI ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html .

Washington↗

USGS2023

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗