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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

Remote characterization of the 12 January 2020 eruption of Taal Volcano, Philippines, using seismo-acoustic, volcanic lightning, and satellite observations

On 12 January 2020, an eruption began on the shores of the Main Crater Lake (MCL) of Taal Volcano—a caldera system on the southern end of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Taal, one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines, is located 30 km south of Manila—a major metropolitan area with a population of 13.5 million people. Eruptive activity intensified throughout the day on 12 January, producing prolific volcanic lightning, ashfall, and a sustained plume that reached 16–17 km altitude. The chronology of events was well documented by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. The wealth of data collected during the eruption provides a unique opportunity to investigate how the combination of different remote sensing methods may complement local observations and monitoring. Remote systems tend to provide lower resolution data but are also less likely to be compromised by the eruptive activity, thus providing continuous records of eruptive processes. Here, we present a postevent analysis of the 12 January activity, including data from long‐range lightning, infrasound, and seismic arrays located at distances up to several thousands of kilometers from the volcano. By combining these datasets, we distinguish five phases of activity and infer a major shift in eruption behavior around 12:00 on 12 January (UTC). The remote observations suggest that the most of the water within the MCL ( ⁠∼42 million m 3⁠ ) was vaporized and incorporated into the volcanic plume within the first 12 hr of the eruption.

Taal Volcano↗

A detailed view of the 2020-2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence with deep learning

The 2020–2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence, still ongoing in 2023, is remarkable for its multiple‐fault rupture complexity and elevated aftershock productivity. We applied an automatic workflow to continuous data from 43 seismic stations in Puerto Rico to build an enhanced earthquake catalog with ∼180,000 events for the 3+ yr sequence from 28 December 2019 to 1 January 2023. This workflow contained the EQTransformer (EQT) deep learning model for event detection and phase picking, the EikoNet‐Hypocenter Inversion with Stein Variational Inference probabilistic earthquake location approach with a neural network trained to solve the eikonal wave equation, and relocation with event‐pair waveform cross correlation. EQT increased the number of catalog events in the sequence by about seven times, though its performance was not quite as good as thorough analyst review. The enhanced catalog revealed new structural details of the sequence space–time evolution, including sudden changes in activity, on a complex system of many small normal and strike‐slip faults. This sequence started on 28 December 2019 with an M 4.7 strike‐slip earthquake followed by 10 days of shallow strike‐slip foreshocks, including several M 5+ earthquakes, in a compact region. The oblique normal fault M w "> M w 6.4 mainshock then happened on 7 January 2020. Early aftershocks in January 2020, with several M 5+ earthquakes, quickly expanded into two intersecting fault zones with diffuse seismicity: one extending ∼35 km on a northward‐dipping normal fault and the other ∼60‐km‐long and oriented west‐northwest–east‐southeast on strike‐slip faults. Months to years later, aftershocks moved westward, deeper, and to outer reaches of the active fault zones, with abrupt rapid seismicity migration following larger M 4.7+ aftershocks in May, July, and December 2020. The observed seismicity evolution indicates cascading failure from stress transfer on multiple critically stressed faults. High aftershock productivity results from the complex multiple‐fault network hosting the sequence, which is characteristic of an immature fault system in the diffuse deformation zone around Puerto Rico, at the complicated North American–Caribbean plate boundary region.

Puerto Rico↗

Slip deficit rates on southern Cascadia faults resolved with viscoelastic earthquake cycle modeling of geodetic deformation

The fore‐arc of the southern Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), north of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ), is home to a network of Quaternary‐active crustal faults that accumulate strain due to the interaction of the North American, Juan de Fuca (Gorda), and Pacific plates. These faults, including the Little Salmon and Mad River fault (LSF and MRF) zones, are located near the most populated parts of California’s north coast and show paleoseismic evidence for three slip events of several‐meter scale in the past 1700 yr. However, the geodetic slip rates of these faults are poorly constrained. In this work, we analyze a new compilation of interseismic geodetic velocities from Global Navigation Satellite Systems, leveling, and tide gauge data near the MTJ to constrain present‐day slip deficit rates on upper‐plate faults and coupling on the megathrust. We construct Green’s functions for interseismic slip deficit for discrete faults embedded in an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic mantle. We then use a constrained least‐squares inversion to determine best‐fitting slip rates on the major faults and investigate slip rate trade‐offs between faults. Results indicate that the LSF and MRF systems together accumulate 4–5 mm/yr of reverse‐slip deficit, although their separate slip rates cannot be determined independently. Modeling of the horizontal and vertical velocities suggests that the southernmost CSZ is coupled interseismically to deeper than 25 km depth. We also find that 6–17 mm/yr of right‐lateral slip deficit extends north of the MTJ and into the southern Cascadia fore‐arc. These results reinforce the notion that both the southernmost Cascadia megathrust and the smaller fore‐arc faults above it contribute to regional seismic hazard.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Introduction to the special section on seismoacoustics and seismoacoustic data fusion

A variety of geophysical hazards (e.g., volcanic activity, earthquakes, mass movements, marine storms, bolides) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., chemical and nuclear explosions, mining blasts, rocket launches) can release energy as mechanical waves in the ground, ocean, and atmosphere (Arrowsmith et al., 2010; Campus and Christie, 2009). Due to the mechanical coupling between a planetary body, its ocean, and its atmosphere, waves can propagate across these interfaces (Ben-Menahem and Singh, 1981) and carry information about the source and the media they propagated through. The field of seismoacoustics, driven by geophysical observations of both seismic and low-frequency acoustic (infrasound) waves, has several interdisciplinary applications. Observations of both seismic and infrasonic waves can be used to discriminate between atmospheric and subsurface events, such as sonic booms and earthquakes. Moreover, seismoacoustic analyses can provide useful information for the source characterization of shallow anthropogenic events, such as underground or surface explosions, volcanic, and tectonic events (e.g., Arrowsmith et al., 2020; Assink et al., 2016; de Groot-Hedlin and Hedlin, 2019; Matoza et al., 2009). Similarly, remote observations (e.g., on regional seismic and infrasonic arrays) can help monitor natural events such as volcanic eruptions and provide additional details about eruption dynamics. Recent works additionally suggest that infrasound can be used to discriminate between different volcanic processes (Watson et al., 2022). Finally, looking outwards, the study of seismo-acoustics has been a particularly valuable tool for planetary science (e.g., Krishnamoorthy et al., 2018; Martire et al., 2018; Krishnamoorthy et al., 2019; Martire et al., 2020; Garcia et al., 2020; Brissaud et al., 2021).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

A population-based performance evaluation of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M 9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.

We evaluate the potential performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M 9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) using synthetic seismograms from 30 simulated M 9 earthquake scenarios on the Cascadia subduction zone. The timeliness and accuracy of source estimates and effectiveness of ShakeAlert alert contours are evaluated with a station‐based alert classification scheme using an alert threshold equal to the target threshold. We develop a population‐based alert classification method by aligning a population grid with Voronoi diagrams computed from the station locations for each scenario. Using raster statistics, we estimate the PNW population that would receive timely accurate alerts during an offshore M 9 earthquake. We also examine the range of expected warning times with respect to the spatial distribution of the population. Results show that most of the population in our evaluation region could receive alerts with positive warning times for an alert threshold of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) III, but that late and missed alerts increase because the alert threshold is increased. An average of just under 60% of the population would be alerted for MMI V prior to the arrival of threshold level shaking. Large regions of late and missed alerts for thresholds MMI IV and V are caused by delays in alert updates, inaccurate FinDer source estimates, and undersized alert contours due to magnitude underestimation. We also investigate an alerting strategy where ShakeAlert sends out an alert to the entire evaluation region when the system detects at least an M 8 earthquake along the coast. Because large magnitude offshore earthquakes are rare in Cascadia, overalerting is most likely to occur from an overestimated M 7+ on the Gorda plate. With appropriate criteria to minimize overalerting, this strategy may eliminate all missed and late alerts except at sites close to the epicenter.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Evidence of Seattle Fault earthquakes from patterns of deep-seated landslides

Earthquake‐induced landslides can record information about the seismic shaking that generated them. In this study, we present new mapping, Light Detection and Ranging‐derived roughness dating, and analysis of over 1000 deep‐seated landslides from the Puget Lowlands of Washington, U.S.A., to probe the landscape for past Seattle fault earthquake information. With this new landslide inventory, we observe spatial and temporal evidence of landsliding related to the last major earthquake on the Seattle fault ∼1100 yr before present. We find spatial clusters of landslides that correlate with ground motions from recent 3D kinematic models of Seattle fault earthquakes. We also find temporal patterns in the landslide inventory that suggest earthquake‐driven increases in landsliding. We compare the spatial and temporal landslide data with scenario‐based ground motion models and find stronger evidence of the last major Seattle fault earthquake from this combined analysis than from spatial or temporal patterns alone. We also compare the landslide inventory with ground motions from different Seattle fault earthquake scenarios to determine the ground motion distributions that are most consistent with the landslide record. We find that earthquake scenarios that best match the clustering of ∼1100‐year‐old landslides produce the strongest shaking within a band that stretches from west to east across central Seattle as well as along the bluffs bordering the broader Puget Sound. Finally, we identify other landslide clusters (at 4.6–4.2 ka, 4.0–3.8 ka, 2.8–2.6 ka, and 2.2–2.0 ka) in the inventory which let us infer potential ground motions that may correspond to older Seattle fault earthquakes. Our method, which combines hindcasting of the surface response to the last major Seattle fault earthquake, using a roughness‐aged landslide inventory with forecasts of modeled ground shaking from 3D seismic scenarios, showcases a powerful new approach to gleaning paleoseismic information from landscapes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

3-D wave propagation simulations of Mw 6.5+ earthquakes on the Tacoma Fault, Washington state, considering the effects of topography, a geotechnical gradient, and a fault damage zone

We simulate shaking in Tacoma, Washington, and surrounding areas from M w 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes on the Tacoma fault. Ground motions are directly modeled up to 2.5 Hz using kinematic, finite‐fault sources; a 3D seismic velocity model considering regional geology; and a model mesh with 30 m sampling at the ground surface. In addition, we explore how adjustments to the seismic velocity model affect predicted shaking over a range of periods. These adjustments include the addition of a region‐specific geotechnical gradient, surface topography, and a fault damage zone. We find that the simulated shaking tends to be near estimates from empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs). However, long‐period ( T = 5.0 s) shaking within the Tacoma basin is typically underpredicted by the GMMs. The fit between simulated and GMM‐derived short‐period ( T = 0.5 s) shaking is significantly improved with the addition of the geotechnical gradient. From comparing different M w 6.5 earthquake scenarios, we also find that the response of the Tacoma basin is sensitive to the azimuth of incoming seismic waves. In adding surface topography to the simulation, we find that average ground motion is similar to that produced from the nontopography model. However, shaking is often amplified at topographic highs and deamplified at topographic lows, and the wavefield undergoes extensive scattering. Adding a fault damage zone has the effect of amplifying short‐period shaking adjacent to the fault, while reducing far‐field shaking. Intermediate‐period shaking is amplified within the Tacoma basin, likely due to enhanced surface‐wave generation attributable to the fault damage zone waveguide. When applied in the same model, the topography and fault damage zone adjustments often enhance or reduce the effects of one another, adding further complexity to the wavefield. These results emphasize the importance of improving near‐surface velocity model resolution as waveform simulations progress toward higher frequencies.

Washington↗

Limited evidence of late Quaternary tectonic surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, USA

The ~300-km-long eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), USA, is the second-most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Seismicity generally occurs below the Paleozoic fold-and-thrust belt within the Mesoproterozoic basement, at depths of 5–26 km, and earthquake magnitudes during the instrumental record have been moment magnitude ( M w )≤4.8. Evidence of surface deformation may not exist or be difficult to detect because of the vegetated and soil-mantled landscape, landslides, locally steep topography, anthropogenic landscape modification, or long, irregular recurrence intervals between surface-rupturing earthquakes. Despite the deep seismicity, analog models indicate that accumulation of strike-slip or oblique-slip displacement at depth could be expected to propagate upward through the Paleozoic section, producing a detectable surficial signal of distributed faulting. To identify potential surface deformation, we interrogated the landscape at different spatial scales. We evaluated morphotectonic and channel metrics, such as channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry. Additionally, we mapped possible fault-related topographic features on 1-m lidar. Finally, we integrated our observations with available bedrock and Quaternary surficial mapping and subsurface geophysical data. At a regional scale, most morphotectonic and channel metrics have a strong lithologic control. Within smaller regions of similar lithology, we observe changes in landscape metrics like channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry that spatially correlate with new lineaments identified in this study and previously mapped east–west Cenozoic faults. These faults have apparent left-lateral offsets, are optimally oriented to slip in the current stress field, and match kinematics from recent focal mechanisms, but do not clearly preserve evidence of late Pleistocene or Holocene tectonic surface deformation. Most newly mapped lineaments might be explained by either tectonic or non-tectonic origins, such as fluvial or karst processes. We also re-evaluated a previously described paleoseismic site and interpret that the exposure does not record evidence of late Pleistocene faulting but instead is explained by fluvial stratigraphy.

Tennessee↗

Comment on “A new decade in seismoacoustics (2010–2022)” by Fransiska Dannemann Dugick, Clinton Koch, Elizabeth Berg, Stephen Arrowsmith, and Sarah Albert

An increase in seismic stations also having microbarographs has led to increased interest in the field of seismoacoustics. A review of the recent advances in this field can be found in Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023) . The goal of this note is to draw the attention of the readers of Dannemann Dugick et al. (2023) to several additional interactions between the solid Earth and atmosphere that have not been classically considered in the field of seismoacoustics. The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘api eruption produced acoustic gravity waves that were recorded globally. For example, the Lamb wave from this eruption produced early‐arriving and long‐lasting tsunami waves. This eruption also provided globally recorded coupling of atmospheric modes with solid Earth modes, providing another example of the complex interactions that can occur at the boundary between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. Even in the absence of large atmospheric signals, collocated pressure sensors at seismic stations can be a useful tool for estimating the local substructure, such at V S 30 ⁠ , the average shear velocity of the upper 30 m. Finally, at low frequencies, it is possible to use pressure records to correct out atmospheric disturbances recorded on seismometers. We briefly review the aforementioned, nontraditional seismoacoustic topics that we feel are important to consider as part of the full suite of interactions occurring between the solid Earth and atmosphere.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19‐member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time‐dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Rapid estimation of single-station earthquake magnitudes with machine learning on a global scale

The foundation of earthquake monitoring is the ability to rapidly detect, locate, and estimate the size of seismic sources. Earthquake magnitudes are particularly difficult to rapidly characterize because magnitude types are only applicable to specific magnitude ranges, and location errors propagate to substantial magnitude errors. We developed a method for rapid estimation of single‐station earthquake magnitudes using raw three‐component P waveforms observed at local to teleseismic distances, independent of prior size or location information. We used the MagNet regression model architecture ( Mousavi and Beroza, 2020b ), which combines convolutional and recurrent neural networks. We trained our model using ∼2.4 million P ‐phase arrivals labeled by the authoritative magnitude assigned by the U.S. Geological Survey. We tested input data parameters (e.g., window length) that could affect the performance of our model in near‐real‐time monitoring applications. At the longest waveform window length of 114 s, our model (Artificial Intelligence Magnitude [AIMag]) is accurate (median estimated magnitude within ±0.5 magnitude units from catalog magnitude) between M 2.3 and 7.6. However, magnitudes above M ∼7 are more underestimated as true magnitude increases. As the windows are shortened down to 1 s, the point at which higher magnitudes begin to be underestimated moves toward lower magnitudes, and the degree of underestimation increases. The over and underestimation of magnitudes for the smallest and largest earthquakes, respectively, are potentially related to the limited number of events in these ranges within the training data, as well as magnitude saturation effects related to not capturing the full source time function of large earthquakes. Importantly, AIMag can determine earthquake magnitudes with individual stations’ waveforms without instrument response correction or knowledge of an earthquake’s source‐station distance. This work may enable monitoring agencies to more rapidly recognize large, potentially tsunamigenic global earthquakes from few stations, allowing for faster event processing and reporting. This is critical for timely warnings for seismic‐related hazards.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses such as the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) typically rely on declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term time‐independent (background) seismicity rate to forecast future seismicity. In support of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 update to the NSHM, we update the methods used to develop this background or gridded seismicity model component of the NSHM. As in 2018, we use a combination of fixed and adaptive kernel Gaussian smoothing. However, we implement two additional declustering methods to account for the fact that declustering is a nonunique process. These new declustering methods result in different forecasts for the locations of future seismicity, as represented by spatial probability density functions that are later combined with a rate model to produce a full gridded earthquake rate forecast. The method updates, particularly in the separation of the spatial and rate models as well as revised regional boundaries, in some places cause substantive changes to the seismic hazard forecast compared to the previous 2018 NSHM. Additional updates to catalog processing and induced seismicity zones also contribute to changes in the gridded seismicity hazard since 2018. However, these changes are well understood and reflect improvements in our modeling of gridded seismicity hazard.

Continental United States↗

Preliminary implications of viscoelastic ray theory for anelastic seismic tomography models

The recent developments in general viscoelastic ray theory provide a rigorous mathematical framework for anelastic seismic tomography. They provide closed‐form solutions of forward ray‐tracing and simple inverse problems for anelastic horizontal and spherical layered media with material gradients. They provide ray‐tracing computation algorithms valid for all angles of incidence that account for changes in wave speed, attenuation, and trajectory of anelastic P and S body waves induced by anelastic boundaries. They account for theoretical predictions that seismic waves refract as inhomogeneous waves across anelastic boundaries for all angles of incidence, which in turn accounts for energy carried by plane waves along seismic boundaries at head wave critical angles and wide‐angle refracted (WAR) ray paths that are not predicted by elastic models. Exact viscoelastic ray‐tracing numerical results for various models provide examples that illustrate the effects of anelastic boundaries on the travel times and amplitudes of seismic waves. They show the effects are strongly dependent on angle of incidence. For near‐critical and wide angles of incidence the anelastic effects on travel times and amplitudes can be large and are not explained by elastic ray theory, but the effects on travel times can be relatively small and difficult to distinguish from those for elastic media for pre‐near‐critical angles of incidence. The results for some models indicate that reflected anelastic WAR waves may be observable at the surface and possibly account for some prominent seismic arrivals not explained by elasticity. These preliminary results suggest that the application of exact viscoelastic ray‐tracing computation algorithms to exploration and teleseismic data sets can reveal new insights regarding the properties and distribution of anelastic materials in the Earth.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Seismic tomography 2023

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early‐career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. It remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Using crustal-scale refraction data of joint inversions of Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves and H/V spectral ratios for Atlantic Coastal Plain velocity structure, eastern U.S.

Shallow shear‐wave velocities ( ⁠⁠ V s ) sometimes are estimated from joint inversions of horizontal‐to‐vertical (H/V) spectral ratios and surface‐wave dispersion curves derived from ambient noise or small active sources. Here, we evaluate carrying out these inversions using Rayleigh‐wave dispersion curves computed from crustal‐scale P ‐wave seismic refraction data. We use data from the 2014–2015 Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) experiment in Virginia and North Carolina, but similar seismic refraction data sets have been acquired over sedimentary basins of interest for seismic hazard studies, including in major urban areas. The ENAM project deployed a pair of ∼215 km long, northwest–southeast linear arrays with ∼300 m receiver spacing to record 11 dynamite shots, and 80 continuously recording seismometers with 5–6 km spacing along the same arrays to record offshore airguns. The arrays crossed the onland portion of the Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments, which are a seaward‐thickening wedge of Cretaceous and younger sediments deposited mostly on crystalline bedrock. We compute Rayleigh‐wave dispersion curves from 3 to 9 km long portions of the receiver arrays on each side of the dynamite shots, and we compute ambient‐noise H/V ratios from the continuously recording seismometers. We use a genetic inversion algorithm in which forward velocity models in each “generation” are evaluated for misfits compared to the observed data, with subsequent generations constructed from the models with the smallest misfits. Velocities to depths of 500 m are defined well, as shown by a narrow range of velocities in the best‐fit models, by the consistency between multiple inversion runs at a site, and by forward modeling of site responses. The resulting velocity cross‐section of the Coastal Plain strata has seaward‐dipping contours in the thinner portions of the Coastal Plain but smaller dips in the deeper portions. We interpret these results as showing that velocity contours in the ACP strata are influenced by a combination of lithology and overburden pressure. Results demonstrate that existing seismic refraction data have the potential for determining detailed shallow shear‐wave velocity profiles.

eastern United States↗

Noise constraints on global body‐wave measurement thresholds

Intermediate sized earthquakes (≈ M 4–6.5) are often measured using the teleseismic body‐wave magnitude ( ⁠𝑚b⁠ ). 𝑚b measurements are especially critical at the lower end of this range when teleseismic waveform modeling techniques (i.e., moment tensor analysis) are difficult. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) determines the location and magnitude of all M 5 and greater earthquakes worldwide within 20 min of the rupture time, and therefore accurate 𝑚b magnitude estimates are essential to fulfill its mission. To better understand how network geometry and noise levels affect the global response capabilities, we developed a method to spatially estimate the minimum measurable 𝑚b⁠ . To do this, we compare expected 𝑚b amplitudes at every station to the station’s background noise level. We find that using NEIC’s current network geometry and these idealized thresholds, NEIC can potentially estimate 𝑚b magnitudes down to M 4.5 globally. Low‐latitude regions in the Southern Hemisphere present the biggest opportunity to improve monitoring capabilities. However, logistically they also present the biggest hurdles for network operators. Finally, to test the resiliency of the network we removed the 20 most important stations and found the 𝑚b threshold remains 𝑚b 4.5. However, the region where only 𝑚b 4.5 and greater can be estimated increases and is again restricted to the Southern Hemisphere.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Sensitivity testing of marine turbidite age estimates along the Cascadia subduction zone

9 earthquakes ruptured the full Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in the past 10 kyr, a hypothesis that relies on concurrent turbidite deposition generated from seismogenic strong ground motion along the ∼1100 km margin. Correlation of marine turbidite deposits is based on petrophysical characteristics and radiocarbon geochronology, the latter of which relies on a series of age corrections and calibrations for marine radiocarbon age and sedimentological parameters. In this work, I isolate several key variables in turbidite age assessment and systematically test how previous assumptions and new calibration curves affect estimated ages, and thus whether geochronologic analyses independently support coeval turbidite deposition. For radiocarbon age calibration, I test the impact of (1) updating global marine reservoir age corrections; (2) updating local marine reservoir age estimates; and (3) selectively applied marine reservoir age excursions. From the calibrated radiocarbon ages, I calculate turbidite age and uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach with a broad range of sedimentation rates and substratal erosion. By simply updating the global marine radiocarbon calibration, individual radiocarbon ages differ from published estimates by several hundred years. Updates to the local reservoir age corrections are minimal because existing data remain limited yet have potential for great impact on turbidite ages. Of the sedimentological parameters tested, sedimentation rate has the largest impact on estimated turbidite age, with individual ages changing up to 500 yr from published estimates. For radiocarbon samples of turbidites previously inferred to correlate, the individual ages typically show increased scatter and overall uncertainty, even for models that only update the global marine reservoir calibration. These results highlight the major age uncertainty associated with current coseismic turbidite age analyses in Cascadia and how independent constraints on local reservoir corrections and sedimentation rate are critical for accurate turbidite age estimates in the Pacific Northwest.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗