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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2021

The Chesapeake Bay program modeling system: Overview and recommendations for future development

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Chesapeake Bay estuary and watershed↗

USGS2007

Sediment discharge into a subsiding Louisiana deltaic estuary through a Mississippi River diversion

Wetlands of the Mississippi River deltaic plain in southeast Louisiana have been hydrologically isolated from the Mississippi River by containment levees for nearly a century. The ensuing lack of fluvial sediment inputs, combined with natural submergence processes, has contributed to high coastal land loss rates. Controlled river diversions have since been constructed to reconnect the marshes of the deltaic plain with the river. This study examines the impact of a pulsed diversion management plan on sediment discharge into the Breton Sound estuary, in which duplicate 185 m3 s-1-diversions lasting two weeks each were conducted in the spring of 2002 and 2003. Sediment delivery during each pulse was highly variable (11,300-43,800 metric tons), and was greatest during rising limbs of Mississippi River flood events. Overland flow, a necessary transport mechanism for river sediments to reach the subsiding backmarsh regions, was induced only when diversion discharge exceeded 100 m3 s-1. These results indicate that timing and magnitude of diversion events are both important factors governing marsh sediment deposition in the receiving basins of river diversions. Though the diversion serves as the primary source of river sediments to the estuary, the inputs observed here were several orders of magnitude less than historical sediment discharge through crevasses and uncontrolled diversions in the region, and are insufficient to offset present rates of relative sea level rise. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2009

Coastal groundwater dynamics off Santa Barbara, California: combining geochemical tracers, electromagnetic seepmeters, and electrical resistivity

This paper presents repeat field measurements of 222 Rn and 223,224,226,228 Ra, electromagnetic seepage meter-derived advective fluxes, and multi-electrode, stationary and continuous marine resistivity surveys collected between November 2005 and April 2007 to study coastal groundwater dynamics within a marine beach in Santa Barbara, California. The study provides insight into magnitude and dynamics of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and associated nutrient loadings into near-shore coastal waters, where the predominant SGD drivers can be both spatially and temporally separated. Rn-222 and 223,224,226,228 Ra were utilized to quantify the total and saline contribution, respectively, of SGD. The two short-lived 224,223 Ra isotopes provided an estimate of apparent near-shore water mass age, as well as an estimate of the Ra-derived eddy diffusion coefficient, K h ( 224 Ra = 2.86 ± 0.7 m 2 s −1 ; 223 Ra = 1.32 ± 0.5 m 2 s −1 ). Because 222 Rn ( t ½ = 3.8 day) and 224 Ra ( t ½ = 3.66 day) have comparable half-lives and production terms, they were used in concert to examine respective water column removal rates. Electromagnetic seepage meters recorded the physical, bi-directional exchange across the sediment/water interface, which ranged from −6.7 to 14.5 cm day −1 , depending on the sampling period and position relative to the low tide line. Multi-day time-series 222 Rn measurements in the near-shore water column yielded total (saline + fresh) SGD rates that ranged from 3.1 ± 2.6 to 9.2 ± 0.8 cm day −1 , depending on the sampling season. Offshore 226 Ra ( t ½ = 1600 year) and 222 Rn gradients were used with the calculated K h values to determine seabed flux estimates (dpm m −2 day −1 ), which were then converted into SGD rates (7.1 and 7.9 cm day −1 , respectively). Lastly, SGD rates were used to calculate associated nutrient loads for the near-shore coastal waters off Santa Barbara. Depending on both the season and the SGD method utilized, the following SGD-derived nutrient inputs were computed (mol per day per meter of shoreline): NH 4 + = 0.06–0.29 mol day −1 m −1 ; SiO 4 = 0.22–0.29 mol day −1 m −1 ; PO 4 3− = 0.04–0.17 mol day −1 m −1 ; [NO 2 − + NO 3 − ] = 0–0.52 mol day −1 m −1 ; dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) = 0.01–0.17 mol day −1 m −1 , and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) = 0.08–0.09 mol day −1 m −1 . Compared to the ephemeral nature of fluvial and marine inputs into this region, such SGD-derived loadings can provide a sustained source of select nutrients to the coastal waters off Santa Barbara, California that should be accounted for in mass balance estimates.

California↗

USGS2022

Ocean connectivity drives trophic support for consumers in an intermittently closed coastal lagoon

Estuarine food webs are complex, as marine, freshwater, and terrestrial inputs combine and contribute variable amounts of organic material. Seasonal fluctuations in precipitation amplify the dynamism inherent to estuarine food webs, particularly in lagoonal estuaries, which can be seasonally closed and disconnected from the ocean in low-runoff periods (bar-built lagoons). Despite their abundance along coastlines in Mediterranean climates, the organic matter sources fueling bar-built lagoon food webs are poorly understood, particularly with respect to seasonal hydrologic variability, episodic marine connections, and internal nutrient cycling. In this study, we evaluate the food web of a bar-built lagoon with respect to seasonal differences in lagoon water quality, the sources of organic matter which support consumers, and the trophic ecology of resident fishes. Observed water quality conditions reflected biogeochemical processes associated with salinity-driven stratification and high lagoon residence times and were associated with strong seasonal differences in the contribution of different organic matter sources to lagoon consumers. A variety of organic matter sources supported consumers; marine inputs were important to lagoon food webs in spring when the lagoon was open, while summer food webs were largely driven by phytoplankton which was likely fueled by internal nutrient cycling. Fish diets were largely comprised of crustaceans and fish eggs, with clearly defined trophic niches in spring but high overlap in summer. This study demonstrates that the seasonal changes in bar-built lagoon food webs are largely dependent on ocean connectivity and internal cycling within the lagoon, rather than watershed processes as is typical for many estuaries.

California↗

USGS2004

Atmospheric lead deposition to Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia, USA

Contamination of the environment from atmospheric deposition during the twentieth century is pervasive even in areas ostensibly considered pristine or remote from point sources. In this study, Pb concentrations in a 210 Pb-dated peat core collected from the Okefenokee Swamp, GA were used to assess historical contaminant input via atmospheric deposition. Lead isotope ratios were determined by dynamic reaction cell ICP-MS (DRC-ICP-MS). Increases in Pb concentration occurred in the late nineteenth century and a marked rise in Pb concentrations pre-dated the widespread use of leaded gasoline within the US. The 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios of 1.19 during this period were consistent with coal combustion emissions. A later increase in Pb concentration, concurrent with a trend toward more radiogenic 06 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios in gasoline is consistent with an increased input of Pb from leaded gasoline emissions remain a major source of Pb to the Okefenokee.

Georgia↗

USGS2021

LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes

Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of five different vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models (FLake, GLM, GOTM, Simstrat, MyLake). The package requires input in a standardised format and a single configuration file. LakeEnsemblR formats these files to the input required by each model, and provides functions to run and calibrate the models. The outputs of the different models are compiled into a single file, and several post-processing operations are supported. LakeEnsemblR's workflow standardisation can simplify model benchmarking and uncertainty quantification, and improve collaborations between scientists. We showcase the successful application of LakeEnsemblR for two different lakes.

Environmental Modelling & Software↗

USGS2009

Nitrogen dynamics across silvicultural canopy gaps in young forests of western Oregon

Silvicultural canopy gaps are emerging as an alternative management tool to accelerate development of complex forest structure in young, even-aged forests of the Pacific Northwest. The effect of gap creation on available nitrogen (N) is of concern to managers because N is often a limiting nutrient in Pacific Northwest forests. We investigated patterns of N availability in the forest floor and upper mineral soil (0-10 cm) across 6-8-year-old silvicultural canopy gaps in three 50-70-year-old Douglas-fir forests spanning a wide range of soil N capital in the Coast Range and Cascade Mountains of western Oregon. We used extractable ammonium (NH 4 + ) and nitrate (NO 3 - ) pools, net N mineralization and nitrification rates, and NH 4 + and NO 3 - ion exchange resin (IER) concentrations to quantify N availability along north-south transects run through the centers of 0.4 and 0.1 ha gaps. In addition, we measured several factors known to influence N availability, including litterfall, moisture, temperature, and decomposition rates. In general, gap-forest differences in N availability were more pronounced in the mineral soil than in the forest floor. Mineral soil extractable NH 4 + and NO 3 - pools, net N mineralization and nitrification rates, and NH 4 + and NO 3 - IER concentrations were all significantly elevated in gaps relative to adjacent forest, and in several cases exhibited significantly greater spatial variability in gaps than forest. Nitrogen availability along the edges of gaps more often resembled levels in the adjacent forest than in gap centers. For the majority of response variables, there were no significant differences between northern and southern transect positions, nor between 0.4 and 0.1 ha gaps. Forest floor and mineral soil gravimetric percent moisture and temperature showed few differences along transects, while litterfall carbon (C) inputs and litterfall C:N ratios in gaps were significantly lower than in the adjacent forest. Reciprocal transfer incubations of mineral soil samples between gap and forest positions revealed that soil originating from gaps had greater net nitrification rates than forest samples, regardless of incubation environment. Overall, our results suggest that increased N availability in 6-8-year-old silvicultural gaps in young western Oregon forests may be due more to the quality and quantity of litterfall inputs resulting from early-seral species colonizing gaps than by changes in temperature and moisture conditions caused by gap creation.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2004

Mineral dissolution in the Cape Cod aquifer, Massachusetts, USA: I . Reaction stoichiometry and impact of accessory feldspar and glauconite on strontium isotopes, solute concentrations, and REY distribution

To compare relative reaction rates of mineral dissolution in a mineralogically simple groundwater aquifer, we studied the controls on solute concentrations, Sr isotopes, and rare earth element and yttrium (REY) systematics in the Cape Cod aquifer. This aquifer comprises mostly carbonate-free Pleistocene sediments that are about 90% quartz with minor K-feldspar, plagioclase, glauconite, and Fe-oxides. Silica concentrations and pH in the groundwater increase systematically with increasing depth, while Sr isotopic ratios decrease. No clear relationship between 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and Sr concentration is observed. At all depths, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio of the groundwater is considerably lower than the Sr isotopic ratio of the bulk sediment or its K-feldspar component, but similar to that of a plagioclase-rich accessory separate obtained from the sediment. The Si- 87 Sr/ 86 Sr-depth relationships are consistent with dissolution of accessory plagioclase. In addition, solutes such as Sr, Ca, and particularly K show concentration spikes superimposed on their respective general trends. The K-Sr- 87 Sr/ 86 Sr systematics suggests that accessory glauconite is another major solute source to Cape Cod groundwater. Although the authigenic glauconite in the Cape Cod sediment is rich in Rb, it is low in in-grown radiogenic 87 Sr because of its young Pleistocene age. The low 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios are consistent with equilibration of glauconite with seawater. The impact of glauconite is inferred to vary due to its variable abundance in the sediments. In the Cape Cod groundwater, the variation of REY concentrations with sampling depth resembles that of K and Rb, but differs from that of Ca and Sr. Shale-normalized REY patterns are light REY depleted, show negative Ce anomalies and super-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, but no Eu anomalies. REY input from feldspar, therefore, is insignificant compared to input from a K-Rb-bearing phase, inferred to be glauconite. These results emphasize that interpretation of groundwater chemistry, even in relatively simple aquifers, may be complicated by solute contributions from “exotic” accessory minerals such as glauconite. To detect such peculiarities, groundwater studies should combine the study of elemental concentration and isotopic composition of several solutes that show different geochemical behavior.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2006

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S2 generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S2 generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S2 generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2011

Geochemistry of hydrothermal fluids from the PACMANUS, Northeast Pual and Vienna Woods hydrothermal fields, Manus Basin, Papua New Guinea

Processes controlling the composition of seafloor hydrothermal fluids in silicic back-arc or near-arc crustal settings remain poorly constrained despite growing evidence for extensive magmatic–hydrothermal activity in such environments. We conducted a survey of vent fluid compositions from two contrasting sites in the Manus back-arc basin, Papua New Guinea, to examine the influence of variations in host rock composition and magmatic inputs (both a function of arc proximity) on hydrothermal fluid chemistry. Fluid samples were collected from felsic-hosted hydrothermal vent fields located on Pual Ridge (PACMANUS and Northeast (NE) Pual) near the active New Britain Arc and a basalt-hosted vent field (Vienna Woods) located farther from the arc on the Manus Spreading Center. Vienna Woods fluids were characterized by relatively uniform endmember temperatures (273–285 °C) and major element compositions, low dissolved CO 2 concentrations (4.4 mmol/kg) and high measured pH (4.2–4.9 at 25 °C). Temperatures and compositions were highly variable at PACMANUS/NE Pual and a large, newly discovered vent area (Fenway) was observed to be vigorously venting boiling (358 °C) fluid. All PACMANUS fluids are characterized by negative δ D H 2 O "> δDH 2 O values, in contrast to positive values at Vienna Woods, suggesting substantial magmatic water input to circulating fluids at Pual Ridge. Low measured pH (25 °C) values (∼2.6–2.7), high endmember CO 2 (up to 274 mmol/kg) and negative δ 34 S H 2 S "> δ 34 S H2 S values (down to −2.7‰) in some vent fluids are also consistent with degassing of acid-volatile species from evolved magma. Dissolved CO 2 at PACMANUS is more enriched in 13 C (−4.1‰ to −2.3‰) than Vienna Woods (−5.2‰ to −5.7‰), suggesting a contribution of slab-derived carbon. The mobile elements (e.g. Li, K, Rb, Cs and B) are also greatly enriched in PACMANUS fluids reflecting increased abundances in the crust there relative to the Manus Spreading Center. Variations in alkali and dissolved gas abundances with Cl at PACMANUS and NE Pual suggest that phase separation has affected fluid chemistry despite the low temperatures of many vents. In further contrast to Vienna Woods, substantial modification of PACMANUS/NE Pual fluids has taken place as a result of seawater ingress into the upflow zone. Consistently high measured Mg concentrations as well as trends of increasingly non-conservative SO 4 behavior, decreasing endmember Ca/Cl and Sr/Cl ratios with increased Mg indicate extensive subsurface anhydrite deposition is occurring as a result of subsurface seawater entrainment. Decreased pH and endmember Fe/Mn ratios in higher Mg fluids indicate that the associated mixing/cooling gives rise to sulfide deposition and secondary acidity production. Several low temperature (⩽80 °C) fluids at PACMANUS/NE Pual also show evidence for anhydrite dissolution and water–rock interaction (fixation of B) subsequent to seawater entrainment. Hence, the evolution of fluid compositions at Pual Ridge reflects the cumulative effects of water/rock interaction, admixing and reaction of fluids exsolved from silicic magma, phase separation/segregation and seawater ingress into upflow zones.

Manus Basin↗

USGS2007

Automated classifications of topography from DEMs by an unsupervised nested-means algorithm and a three-part geometric signature

An iterative procedure that implements the classification of continuous topography as a problem in digital image-processing automatically divides an area into categories of surface form; three taxonomic criteria–slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture–are calculated from a square-grid digital elevation model (DEM). The sequence of programmed operations combines twofold-partitioned maps of the three variables converted to greyscale images, using the mean of each variable as the dividing threshold. To subdivide increasingly subtle topography, grid cells sloping at less than mean gradient of the input DEM are classified by designating mean values of successively lower-sloping subsets of the study area (nested means) as taxonomic thresholds, thereby increasing the number of output categories from the minimum 8 to 12 or 16. Program output is exemplified by 16 topographic types for the world at 1-km spatial resolution (SRTM30 data), the Japanese Islands at 270 m, and part of Hokkaido at 55 m. Because the procedure is unsupervised and reflects frequency distributions of the input variables rather than pre-set criteria, the resulting classes are undefined and must be calibrated empirically by subsequent analysis. Maps of the example classifications reflect physiographic regions, geological structure, and landform as well as slope materials and processes; fine-textured terrain categories tend to correlate with erosional topography or older surfaces, coarse-textured classes with areas of little dissection. In Japan the resulting classes approximate landform types mapped from airphoto analysis, while in the Americas they create map patterns resembling Hammond's terrain types or surface-form classes; SRTM30 output for the United States compares favorably with Fenneman's physical divisions. Experiments are suggested for further developing the method; the Arc/Info AML and the map of terrain classes for the world are available as online downloads.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2017

Geochemical evidence for a complex origin for the Kelso dunes, Mojave National Preserve, California USA

The Kelso Dune field in southern California is intriguing because although it is of limited areal extent (~ 100 km 2 ), it has a wide variety of dune forms and contains many active dunes (~ 40 km 2 ), which is unusual in the Mojave Desert. Studies over the past eight decades have concluded that the dunes are derived primarily from a single source, Mojave River alluvium, under a dominant, westerly-to-northwesterly wind regime. The majority of these studies did not, however, present data to support the Mojave River as the only source. We conducted mineralogical and geochemical studies of most of the 14 geomorphically defined dune groups of the Kelso Dune field as well as potential sand sources, alluvial sediments from the surrounding mountain ranges. Results indicate that sands in the nine western dune groups have K/Rb and K/Ba (primarily from K-feldspar) compositions that are indistinguishable from Mojave River alluvium (westerly/northwesterly winds) and Budweiser Wash alluvium (southwesterly winds), permitting an interpretation of two sources. In contrast, sands from the five eastern dune groups have K/Rb and K/Ba values that indicate significant inputs from alluvial fan deposits of the Providence Mountains. This requires either rare winds from the east or southeast or, more likely, aeolian reworking of distal Providence Mountain fan sediments by winds from the west, at a rate greater than input from the Mojave River or other western sources. The results indicate that even a small dune field can have a complex origin, either from seasonally varying winds or complex alluvial-fan-dune interaction. Application of K/Rb and K/Ba in K-feldspar as a provenance indicator could be used in many of the world's ergs or sand seas, where dune origins are still not well understood or are controversial. Four examples are given from Africa and the Middle East where such an approach could yield useful new information about dune sand provenance.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2017

Storms, channel changes, and a sediment budget for an urban-suburban stream, Difficult Run, Virginia, USA

Determining erosion and deposition rates in urban-suburban settings and how these processes are affected by large storms is important to understanding geomorphic processes in these landscapes. Sediment yields in the suburban and urban Upper Difficult Run are among the highest ever recorded in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, ranging from 161 to 376 Mg/km 2 /y. Erosion and deposition of streambanks, channel bed, and bars and deposition of floodplains were monitored between 1 March 2010 and 18 January 2013 in Upper Difficult Run, Virginia, USA. We documented the effects of two large storms, Tropical Storm Lee (September 2011), a 100-year event, and Super Storm Sandy (October 2012) a 5-year event, on channel erosion and deposition. Variability in erosion and deposition rates for all geomorphic features, temporally and spatially, are important conclusions of this study. Tropical Storm Lee was an erosive event, where erosion occurred on 82% of all streambanks and where 88% of streambanks that were aggrading before Tropical Storm Lee became erosional. Statistical analysis indicated that drainage area explains linear changes (cm/y) in eroding streambanks and that channel top width explains cross-sectional area changes (cm 2 /y) in eroding streambanks and floodplain deposition (mm/y). A quasi-sediment budget constructed for the study period using the streambanks, channel bed, channel bars, and floodplain measurements underestimated the measured suspended-sediment load by 61% (2130 Mg/y). Underestimation of the sediment load may be caused by measurement errors and to contributions from upland sediment sources, which were not measured but estimated at 36% of the gross input of sediment. Eroding streambanks contributed 42% of the gross input of sediment and accounted for 70% of the measured suspended-sediment load. Similar to other urban watersheds, the large percentage of impervious area in Difficult Run and direct runoff of precipitation leads to increased streamflow and streambank erosion. This study emphasizes the importance of streambanks in urban-suburban sediment budgets but also suggests that other sediment sources, such as upland sources, which were not measured in this study, can be an important source of sediment.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Hydrodynamic controls on sediment retention in an emerging diversion-fed delta

The morphodynamics of river-dominated deltas are largely controlled by the supply and retention of sediment within deltaic wetlands and the rate of relative sea-level rise. Yet, sediment budgets for deltas are often poorly constrained. In the Mississippi River Delta, a system rapidly losing land due to natural and anthropogenic causes, restoration efforts seek to build new land through the use of river diversions. At the Davis Pond Freshwater Diversion, a new crevasse splay has emerged since construction was completed in 2002. Here, we use beryllium-7 activity in sediment cores and USGS measurements of discharge and turbidity to calculate seasonal sediment input, deposition, and retention within the vegetated Davis Pond receiving basin. In winter/spring 2015, which included an experimental period of high discharge through the diversion, Davis Pond received 106,800 metric tons of sediment, 44% of which was retained within the basin. During this time, mean flow velocity was 0.21 m s −1 and mean turbidity was 56 formazin nephelometric units (FNU). In summer/fall 2015, the Davis Pond basin received 35,900 metric tons of sediment, 81% of which was retained. Mean flow velocity in summer/fall was 0.10 m s −1 and mean turbidity was 55 FNU. The increase in sediment retention from winter/spring 2015 to summer/fall 2015 may be due in part to the corresponding drop in water flow velocity, which allowed more sediment to settle out of suspension. Although high water discharge increases sediment input and deposition, increased turbulence associated with higher current velocity appears to increase sediment throughput and thereby decrease the sediment trapping efficiency. Sediment retention in Davis Pond is on the high end of the range seen in deltaic wetlands, perhaps due to the enclosed geometry of the receiving basin. Future diversion design and operation should target moderate water discharge and flow velocities in order to jointly maximize sediment deposition and retention and provide optimal conditions for delta growth.

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

A generalized framework for inferring river bathymetry from image-derived velocity fields

Although established techniques for remote sensing of river bathymetry perform poorly in turbid water, image velocimetry can be effective under these conditions. This study describes a framework for mapping both of these attributes: Depths Inferred from Velocities Estimated by Remote Sensing, or DIVERS. The workflow involves linking image-derived velocities to depth via a flow resistance equation and invoking an optimization algorithm. We generalized an earlier formulation of DIVERS by: (1) using moving aircraft river velocimetry (MARV) to obtain a continuous, spatially extensive velocity field; (2) working within a channel-centered coordinate system; (3) allowing for local optimization of multiple parameters on a per-cross section basis; and (4) introducing a second objective function that can be used when discharge is not known. We also quantified the sensitivity of depth estimates to each parameter and input variable. MARV-based velocity estimates agreed closely with field measurements ( R 2 = 0.81 "> R 2 =0.81 ) and the use of DIVERS led to cross-sectional mean depths that were correlated with in situ observations ( R 2 = 0.75 "> R 2 =0.75 ). Errors in the input velocity field had the greatest impact on depth estimates, but the algorithm was not highly sensitive to initial parameter estimates when a known discharge was available to constrain the optimization. The DIVERS framework is predicated upon a number of simplifying assumptions — steady, uniform, one-dimensional flow and a strict, purely local proportionality between depth and velocity — that impose important limitations, but our results suggest that the approach can provide plausible, first-order estimates of river depths.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. Finally, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

Nevada↗

USGS2005

A new approach for predicting drought-related vegetation stress: Integrating satellite, climate, and biophysical data over the U.S. central plains

Droughts are normal climate episodes, yet they are among the most expensive natural disasters in the world. Knowledge about the timing, severity, and pattern of droughts on the landscape can be incorporated into effective planning and decision-making. In this study, we present a data mining approach to modeling vegetation stress due to drought and mapping its spatial extent during the growing season. Rule-based regression tree models were generated that identify relationships between satellite-derived vegetation conditions, climatic drought indices, and biophysical data, including land-cover type, available soil water capacity, percent of irrigated farm land, and ecological type. The data mining method builds numerical rule-based models that find relationships among the input variables. Because the models can be applied iteratively with input data from previous time periods, the method enables to provide predictions of vegetation conditions farther into the growing season based on earlier conditions. Visualizing the model outputs as mapped information (called VegPredict) provides a means to evaluate the model. We present prototype maps for the 2002 drought year for Nebraska and South Dakota and discuss potential uses for these maps.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗