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Climate change will impact surface water extents and dynamics across the central United States

Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017–2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006–2025 and 2061–2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017–2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.

Earth's Future↗

Runoff response to directional land cover change across reference basins in the conterminous United States

Land cover change plays a critical role in influencing hydrological responses. Change in land cover has impacted runoff across basins with substantial human interference; however, the impacts in basins with minimal human interference have been studied less. In this study, we investigated the impacts of directional land cover changes (forest to/from combined grassland and shrubland) in runoff coefficient (RC; ratio of runoff to precipitation) and runoff volume across 603 low human interference reference basins in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The results indicate basins with significant ( p <0.05) increasing trends in runoff and RC were across the northeast and northwest regions of CONUS, and basins with decreasing trends were in the southern CONUS region. A unit percent increase in basin area from grassland and shrubland to forest was associated with a ∼4% decrease in RC across basins with decreasing RC trends. Similarly, a unit percent increase in basin area from forest to a combined grassland and shrubland was associated with a ∼1% increase in RC across increasing RC trend basins. Runoff volume was decreased (increased) by ∼25 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (∼9 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 ) across basins with decreasing (increasing) trends in runoff and RC. When relating runoff volume with the area of directional land cover changes, each 1 km 2 increase in area from grassland and shrubland to forest resulted in a decrease of ∼530,000 m 3 runoff volume across basins with decreasing trends. In contrast, each 1 km 2 increase in area from forest to grassland and shrubland increased runoff volume by ∼200,000 m 3 across increasing trend basins. Basins in the southern region of CONUS were more impacted by runoff parameters (RC and runoff volume) from directional land cover changes than basins in the northern region. The findings of this study are useful for planning and managing water availability for sustainable and adaptive water resources management at regional scales.

Advances in Water Resources↗

Use of relational databases to evaluate regional petroleum accumulation, groundwater flow, and CO2 sequestration in Kansas

Large-scale relational databases and geographic information system tools are used to integrate temperature, pressure, and water geo-chemistry data from numerous wells to better understand regional-scale geothermal and hydrogeological regimes of the lower Paleozoic aquifer systems in the mid-continent and to evaluate their potential for geologic CO2 sequestration. The lower Paleozoic (Cambrian to Mississippian) aquifer systems in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma comprise one of the largest regional-scale saline aquifer systems in North America. Understanding hydrologic conditions and processes of these regional-scale aquifer systems provides insight to the evolution of the various sedimentary basins, migration of hydrocarbons out of the Anadarko and Arkoma basins, and the distribution of Arbuckle petroleum reservoirs across Kansas and provides a basis to evaluate CO2 sequestration potential. The Cambrian and Ordovician stratigraphic units form a saline aquifer that is in hydrologic continuity with the freshwater recharge from the Ozark plateau and along the Nemaha anticline. The hydrologic continuity with areas of freshwater recharge provides an explanation for the apparent underpressure in the Arbuckle Group. Copyright ?? 2005. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗

Water year 2004: Western water managers feel the heat

This spring, a rare combination of exceptionally warm temperatures and near-record lack of precipitation in the western United States caused a rapid change in hydrologic conditions and an unexpectedly early onset of spring conditions. With much of the western U.S. already in its fifth year of drought, an above-average western snowpack on 1 March 2004 provided hope for much-needed abundant runoff. Unfortunately snowmelt began far earlier than anticipated, resulting in dramatic declines in seasonal spring-summer streamflow forecasts as the month proceeded, declines more rapid by some measures than ever before in the past 75 years. With reservoirs near historic lows, many water users have been hard pressed to deal with the continuing drought.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

Tamarix, hydrology and fluvial geomorphology

This chapter explores the impact of hydrology and fluvial geomorphology on the distribution and abundance of Tamarix as well as the reciprocal effects of Tamarix on hydrologic and geomorphic conditions. It examines whether flow-regime alteration favors Tamarix establishment over native species, and how Tamarix stands modify processes involved in the narrowing of river channels and the formation of floodplains. It begins with an overview of the basic geomorphic and hydrologic character of rivers in the western United States before analyzing how this setting has contributed to the regional success of Tamarix . It then considers the influence of Tamarix on the hydrogeomorphic form and function of rivers and concludes by discussing how a changing climate, vegetation management, and continued water-resource development affect the future role of Tamarix in these ecosystems.

Book chapter↗

Move it or lose it: Predicted effects of culverts and population density on Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) connectivity

Roadways and railways can reduce wildlife movements across landscapes, negatively impacting population connectivity. Connectivity may be improved by structures that allow safe passage across linear barriers, but connectivity could be adversely influenced by low population densities. The Mojave desert tortoise is threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation, and population declines. The tortoise continues to decline as disturbance increases across the Mojave Desert in the southwestern United States. While underground crossing structures, like hydrological culverts, have begun receiving attention, population density has not been considered in tortoise connectivity. Our work asks a novel question: How do culverts and population density affect connectivity and potentially drive genetic and demographic patterns? To explore the role of culverts and population density, we used agent-based spatially explicit forward-in-time simulations of gene flow. We constructed resistance surfaces with a range of barriers to movement and representative of tortoise habitat with anthropogenic disturbance. We predicted connectivity under variable population densities. Simulations were run for 200 non-overlapping generations (3400 years) with 30 replicates using 20 microsatellite loci. We evaluated population genetic structure and diversity and found that culverts would not entirely negate the effects of linear barriers, but gene flow improved. Our results also indicated that density is important for connectivity. Low densities resulted in declines regardless of the landscape barrier scenario (> 75% population census size, > 97% effective population size). Results from our simulation using current anthropogenic disturbance predicted decreased population connectivity over time. Genetic and demographic effects were detectable within five generations (85 years) following disturbance with estimated losses in effective population size of 69%. The pronounced declines in effective population size indicate this could be a useful monitoring metric. We suggest management strategies that improve connectivity, such as roadside fencing tied to culverts, conservation areas in a connected network, and development restricted to disturbed areas.

California, Nevada↗

U.S. Geological Survey shrub/grass products provide new approach to shrubland monitoring

In the Western United States, shrubland ecosystems provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational services. However, disturbances such as livestock grazing, exotic species invasion, conversion to agriculture, climate change, urban expansion, and energy development are altering these ecosystems. Improving our understanding of how shrublands are distributed, where they are changing, the extent of the historical change, and likely future change directions is critical for successful management of these ecosystems. Remote-sensing technologies provide the most likely data source for large-area monitoring of ecosystem disturbance—both near-real time and historically. A monitoring framework supported by remote-sensing data can offer efficient and accurate analysis of change across a range of spatial and temporal scales. The U.S. Geological Survey has been working to develop new remote-sensing data, tools, and products to characterize and monitor these changing shrubland landscapes. Nine individual map products (components) have been developed that quantify the percent of shrub, sagebrush, big sagebrush, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, bare ground, shrub height, and sagebrush height at 1-percent intervals in each 30-meter grid cell. These component products are designed to be combined and customized to widely support different applications in rangeland monitoring, analysis of wildlife habitat, resource inventory, adaptive management, and environmental review.

Fact Sheet↗

A continuing program for estimating ground-water pumpage in California--Methods

Municipal and agricultural ground-water pumpage is being estimated for the principal ground-water basins in California. Because of its anticipated use in analog or digital hydrologic models, agricultural pumpage is estimated for unit areas. Estimated municipal pumpage is based on census figures and population projections and on pumpage reported by organizations in the San Joaquin Valley supplying water to communities. On the average, 0.25 to 0.40 acre- foot of water is used annually per capita, depending upon the population and number of industries in the community. The product of population by appropriate per capita use factor gives an estimated annual pumpage for a municipality.

Open-File Report↗

Report on preliminary data for Madison Limestone test well no.1, NE1/4 SE1/4 section 15, T. 57 N., R. 65 W., Crook County, Wyoming

This report provides the preliminary data for the Madison Limestone test well no. 1 in Crook County, Wyoming, including test-well history, geology of the test well, hydrologic testing, and geochemistry. The test well was drilled to a depth of 4,341 feet to determine the water-resource potential of the Madison Limestone and associated rocks to meet future water needs in a 188,000 sq mi region that includes the coal-rich area of the Northern Great Plains. Drilling and testing were designed to yield a maximum of stratigraphic, structural, geophysical, and hydrologic information. All significant water-bearing units contain relatively freshwater (less than 2,000 mg/liter dissolved solids). Three water-bearing units, which are now cased off, may be potential sources of ground water in the area of the test well. These are the Hulett Sandstone Member of the Sundance Formation, the Minnekahta Limestone, and the upper sandy part of the Minnelusa Formation. (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Hydrologic effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964, outside Alaska, with sections on Hydroseismograms from the Nunn-Bush Shoe Co. well, Wisconsin, and Alaska earthquake effects on ground water in Iowa: Chapter C in The Alaska earthquakes, March 27, 1964: effects on hydrologic regimen

The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, had widespread hydrologic effects throughout practically all of the United States. More than 1,450 water-level recorders, scattered throughout all the 50 States except Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island, registered the earthquake. Half of the water-level records were obtained from ground-water observation wells and half at surface-water gaging stations. The earthquake is also known to have registered on water-level recorders on wells in Canada, England, Denmark, Belgium, Egypt, Israel, Libya, Philippine Islands, South-West Africa, South Africa, and Northern Territory of Australia. The Alaska earthquake is the first for which widespread surface-water effects are known. The effects were recorded at stations on flowing streams, rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and ponds. The 755 surface-water stations recording effects are spread through 38 States, but are most numerous in the south-central and southeastern States, especially in Florida and Louisiana. Most of the fluctuations recorded can be referred to more precisely as seismic seiches; however, a few stations recorded the quake as a minor change in stage. The largest recorded seiche outside Alaska was 1.83 feet on a reservoir in Michigan. The next largest was 1.45 feet on Lake Ouachita in Arkansas. The largest fluctuation in a well was 23 feet registered by a pressure recorder near Belle Fourche, S. Dak. Fluctuations of more than 10 feet were reported from wells in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. A 3.40-foot fluctuation was recorded in a well in Puerto Rico. The Alaska earthquake was registered by about seven times as many water-level recorders as recorded the Hebgen Lake, Mont., earthquake of August 19, 1959.

Professional Paper↗

Using hydrogeomorphic criteria to classify wetlands on Mt. Desert Island, Maine – Approach, classification system, and examples

A wetland classification system was designed for Mt. Desert Island, Maine, to help categorize the large number of wetlands (over 1,200 mapped units) as an aid to understanding their hydrologic functions. The classification system, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Park Service, uses a modified hydrogeomorphic (HGM) approach, and assigns categories based on position in the landscape, soils and surficial geologic setting, and source of water. A dichotomous key was developed to determine a preliminary HGM classification of wetlands on the island. This key is designed for use with USGS topographic maps and 1:24,000 geographic information system (GIS) coverages as an aid to the classification, but may also be used with field data. Hydrologic data collected from a wetland monitoring study were used to determine whether the preliminary classification of individual wetlands using the HGM approach yielded classes that were consistent with actual hydroperiod data. Preliminary HGM classifications of the 20 wetlands in the monitoring study were consistent with the field hydroperiod data. The modified HGM classification approach appears robust, although the method apparently works somewhat better with undisturbed wetlands than with disturbed wetlands. This wetland classification system could be applied to other hydrogeologically similar areas of northern New England.

Maine↗

Nutrient and pesticide contamination bias estimated from field blanks collected at surface-water sites in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Quality Networks, 2002–12

Potential contamination bias was estimated for 8 nutrient analytes and 40 pesticides in stream water collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at 147 stream sites from across the United States, and representing a variety of hydrologic conditions and site types, for water years 2002–12. This study updates previous U.S. Geological Survey evaluations of potential contamination bias for nutrients and pesticides. Contamination is potentially introduced to water samples by exposure to airborne gases and particulates, from inadequate cleaning of sampling or analytic equipment, and from inadvertent sources during sample collection, field processing, shipment, and laboratory analysis. Potential contamination bias, based on frequency and magnitude of detections in field blanks, is used to determine whether or under what conditions environmental data might need to be qualified for the interpretation of results in the context of comparisons with background levels, drinking-water standards, aquatic-life criteria or benchmarks, or human-health benchmarks. Environmental samples for which contamination bias as determined in this report applies are those from historical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality networks or programs that were collected during the same time frame and according to the same protocols and that were analyzed in the same laboratory as field blanks described in this report. Results from field blanks for ammonia, nitrite, nitrite plus nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus were partitioned by analytical method; results from the most commonly used analytical method for total phosphorus were further partitioned by date. Depending on the analytical method, 3.8, 9.2, or 26.9 percent of environmental samples, the last of these percentages pertaining to all results from 2007 through 2012, were potentially affected by ammonia contamination. Nitrite contamination potentially affected up to 2.6 percent of environmental samples collected between 2002 and 2006 and affected about 3.3 percent of samples collected between 2007 and 2012. The percentages of environmental samples collected between 2002 and 2011 that were potentially affected by nitrite plus nitrate contamination were 7.3 for samples analyzed with the low-level method and 0.4 for samples analyzed with the standard-level method. These percentages increased to 14.8 and 2.2 for samples collected in 2012 and analyzed using replacement low- and standard-level methods, respectively. The maximum potentially affected concentrations for nitrite and for nitrite plus nitrate were much less than their respective maximum contamination levels for drinking-water standards. Although contamination from particulate nitrogen can potentially affect up to 21.2 percent and that from total Kjeldahl nitrogen can affect up to 16.5 percent of environmental samples, there are no critical or background levels for these substances. For total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus, contamination in a small percentage of environmental samples might be consequential for comparisons relative to impairment risks or background levels. At the low ends of the respective ranges of impairment risk for these nutrients, contamination in up to 5 percent of stream samples could account for at least 23 percent of measured concentrations of total nitrogen, for at least 40 or 90 percent of concentrations of orthophosphate, depending on the analytical method, and for 31 to 76 percent of concentrations of total phosphorus, depending on the time period. Twenty-six pesticides had no detections in field blanks. Atrazine with 12 and metolachlor with 11 had the highest number of detections, mostly occurring in spring or early summer. At a 99-percent level of confidence, contamination was estimated to be no greater than the detection limit in at least 98 percent of all samples for 38 of 40 pesticides. For metolachlor and atrazine, potential contamination was no greater than 0.0053 and 0.0093 micrograms per liter in 98 percent of samples. For 11 of 14 pesticides with at least one detection, the maximum potentially affected concentration of the environmental sample was less than their respective human-health or aquatic-life benchmarks. Small percentages of environmental samples had concentrations high enough that atrazine contamination potentially could account for the entire aquatic-life benchmark for acute effects on nonvascular plants, that dieldrin contamination could account for up to 100 percent of the cancer health-based screening level, or that chlorpyrifos contamination could account for 13 or 12 percent of the concentrations in the aquatic-life benchmarks for chronic effects on invertebrates or the criterion continuous concentration for chronic effects on aquatic life.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeologic framework and simulation of shallow ground-water flow in the vicinity of a hazardous-waste landfill near Pinewood, South Carolina

The geologic units in the vicinity of a hazardous- waste landfill near Pinewood, S.C., were divided into hydrogeologic units on the basis of lithologic and hydrologic characteristics. A quasi-3- dimensional finite-difference ground-water-flow model was constructed to represent the hydrogeologic flamework. The simulation results indicate that if non-reactive constituents were released to the Lang Syne water-bearing zone underlying the central and western pans of the disposal area, the constituents would move in a southwesterly direction at a rate of about one-half to 7 feet per year. Contaminants could move from the Lang Syne water-bearing zone upward to the surficial aquifer, to streams, or to Lake Marion. Although these flow rates indicate that it would require at least 50 years for contaminants to travel between the disposal area and a nearby (400 ft) potential discharge area, the heterogeneity of the site hydrogeology imparts an uncertainty to the conclusion. Faster travel times cannot be ruled out if contamination enters an area having a higher hydraulic conductivity than those determined in this investigation. Faster arrival times at Lake Marion also could result if there are pathways shorter than about 400 feet between contaminated water and an area where it can discharge to the surficial aquifer or to streams. If contaminant releases were to occur on the eastern side of the ground-water mounds, near landfill section II and the southeastern part of land fill section I, initial flow directions would be toward the water-level depression in the eastern part of the facility. Ground water within water- level depression would flow downward, probably to the underlying lower Sawdust Landing water-beating zone. Movement of non-reactive constituents in the tower Sawdust Landing water-bearing zone would be southwestward toward Lake Marion at a rate of about 8 to 20 feet per year. Transport to the lake by this route could require more than 200 years.

South Carolina↗

Hydrogeology and chemical quality of water and soil at Carroll Island, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Carroll Island was used for open-air testing of chemical warfare agents from the late 1940's until 1971. Testing and disposal activities weresuspected of causing environmental contamination at 16 sites on the island. The hydrogeology and chemical quality of ground water, surface water, and soil at these sites were investigated with borehole logs, environmental samples, water-level measurements, and hydrologic tests. A surficial aquifer, upper confining unit, and upper confined aquifer were defined. Ground water in the surficial aquifer generally flows from the east-central part of the island toward the surface-water bodies, butgradient reversals caused by evapotranspiration can occur during dry seasons. In the confined aquifer, hydraulic gradients are low, and hydraulic head is affected by tidal loading and by seasonal pumpage from the west. Inorganic chemistry in the aquifers is affected by brackish-water intrusion from gradient reversals and by dissolution ofcarboniferous shell material in the confining unit.The concentrations of most inorganic constituents probably resulted from natural processes, but some concentrations exceeded Federal water-quality regulations and criteria. Organic compounds were detected in water and soil samples at maximum concentrations of 138 micrograms per liter (thiodiglycol in surface water) and 12 micrograms per gram (octadecanoic acid in soil).Concentrations of organic compounds in ground water exceeded Federal drinking-water regulations at two sites. The organic compounds that weredetected in environmental samples were variously attributed to natural processes, laboratory or field- sampling contamination, fallout from industrial air pollution, and historical military activities.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Geology and occurrence of ground water in Lyon County, Minnesota

Lyon County is in southwestern Minnesota, mostly within the drainage basin of the Minnesota River. The basement rocks in the area consist largely of Precambrian granite and quartzite. These are overlain locally by flat-lying Upper Cretaceous strata composed of thick sections of soft dark-bluish-gray shale and some thin beds of loosely consolidated sandstone. The Cretaceous strata are more than 500 feet thick near the center of the county but gradually pinch out toward the northeast and southwest against the highs of the Precambrian bedrock surface. Glacial drift overlies the Precambrian and Cretaceous rocks and forms the surface of the area. The drift consists largely of till and ranges in thickness from about 10 feet in the north and northeast to approximately 550 feet in the southwest. The most prominent surflcial glacial deposits are five southeast-trending end moraines, two of which are associated with, and parallel to, relatively extensive belts of outwash. Recent deposits averaging less than 20 feet in thickness overlie the glacial drift in stream valleys. The principal aquifers in Lyon County are glacial-melt-water deposits of sand and gravel, and sandstone of Cretaceous age. The underlying Precambrian rocks and the Recent alluvium are of only local importance as water sources. Melt-water deposits composed of stratified clay and silt as well as sand and gravel occur in channels having surficial expression, in buried channels having no direct surface expression, and as small isolated bodies within the till. Well logs of test holes show that the buried melt-water channels are generally parallel to the surflcial channels. However, melt-water deposits are not necessarily confined to the area beneath the surflcial channel but may extend laterally 1 mile or more beyond its limits. Sand and gravel are commonly interbedded with other melt-water materials. They range in thickness from 10 to 75 feet, are usually less than 1 mile in width, and may be as much as 8 miles in length. Although these aquifers are extensive, they underlie less than 10 percent of the county area. In most places, water from the drift is obtained from small isolated bodies of sand and gravel within the till. Water in the glacial drift is usually very hard (more than 500 parts per million) and low in chlorides (less than 50 parts per million). Drift wells generally yield from 2 to 30 gallons per minute; however, in areas where wells tap melt-water-channel deposits, sustained yields of as much as 500 gallons per minute are obtained. The sandstone beds of Cretaceous age occur between the Precambrian bedrock surface and an altitude of 825 feet as a basal sandstone, between altitudes of 890 and 1.020 feet, and between altitudes of 1,050 and 1,160 feet. Water-well data, supplemented by test drilling, show that each of these stratigraphic intervals is developed only in the county. The sandstone beds are of low permeability and are usually less than 2 feet thick, but they may be more than 20 feet thick in places. Water from these aquifers range in quality from soft (less than 60 parts per million) to very hard (more than 500 parts per million) and may contain excessive amounts of chloride (500 to 2,000 parts per million). Wells tapping rocks of Cretaceous age usually yield 2 to 7 gallons per minute, but in areas where the sandstone beds are thicker or hydrologically interrelated with aquifers of other geologic units, yields of as much as 75 gallons per minute have been obtained. Large quantities of ground water are available from melt-water channels in the county. Moderate quantities, adequate for domestic and small industrial needs, are available from many of the small isolated deposits of sand and gravel in the till. Small quantities of ground water, adequate only for domestic supply, generally can be obtained from Cretaceous sandstone.

Minnesota↗

Combining remote sensing and water-balance evapotranspiration estimates for the conterminous United States

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but it has been a challenge to predict accurately across different spatio-temporal scales. The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has led to significant advances in the frequency and spatial resolution of ET estimates, derived from energy balance principles with variables such as temperature used to estimate surface latent heat flux. Although remote sensing methods excel at depicting spatial and temporal variability, estimation of ET independently of other water budget components can lead to inconsistency with other budget terms. Methods that rely on ground-based data better constrain long-term ET, but are unable to provide the same temporal resolution. Here we combine long-term ET estimates from a water-balance approach with the SSEBop (operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance) remote sensing-based ET product for 2000–2015. We test the new combined method, the original SSEBop product, and another remote sensing ET product (MOD16) against monthly measurements from 119 flux towers. The new product showed advantages especially in non-irrigated areas where the new method showed a coefficient of determination R 2 of 0.44, compared to 0.41 for SSEBop or 0.35 for MOD16. The resulting monthly data set will be a useful, unique contribution to ET estimation, due to its combination of remote sensing-based variability and ground-based long-term water balance constraints.

Remote Sensing↗

DEBRIS FLOWS AND HYPERCONCENTRATED STREAMFLOWS.

Examination of recent debris-flow and hyperconcentrated-streamflow events in the western United States reveals (1) the topographic, geologic, hydrologic, and vegetative conditions that affect initiation of debris flows and (2) the wide ranging climatic conditions that can trigger debris flows. Recognition of these physiographic and climatic conditions has aided development of preliminary methods for hazard evaluation. Recent developments in the application of electronic data gathering, transmitting, and processing systems shows potential for real-time hazard warning.

Conference Paper↗

Latest Miocene-earliest Pliocene evolution of the ancestral Rio Grande at the Española-San Luis Basin boundary, northern New Mexico

We use stratigraphic relations, paleoflow data, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating to interpret net aggradation, punctuated by at least two minor incisional events, along part of the upper ancestral Rio Grande fluvial system between 5.5 and 4.5 Ma (in northern New Mexico). The studied fluvial deposits, which we informally call the Sandlin unit of the Santa Fe Group, overlie a structural high between the San Luis and Espa&ntilde;ola Basins. The Sandlin unit was deposited by two merging, west- to southwest-flowing, ancestral Rio Grande tributaries respectively sourced in the central Taos Mountains and southern Taos Mountains-northeastern Picuris Mountains. The river confluence progressively shifted southwestward (downstream) with time, and the integrated river (ancestral Rio Grande) flowed southwards into the Espa&ntilde;ola Basin to merge with the ancestral Rio Chama. Just prior to the end of the Miocene, this fluvial system was incised in the southern part of the study area (resulting in an approximately 4&ndash;7 km wide paleovalley), and had sufficient competency to transport cobbles and boulders. Sometime between emplacement of two basalt flows dated at 5.54&plusmn; 0.38 Ma and 4.82&plusmn;0.20 Ma (groundmass 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages), this fluvial system deposited 10&ndash;12 m of sandier sediment (lower Sandlin subunit) preserved in the northern part of this paleovalley. The fluvial system widened between 4.82&plusmn;0.20 and 4.50&plusmn;0.07 Ma, depositing coarse sand and fine gravel up to 14 km north of the present-day Rio Grande. This 10&ndash;25 m-thick sediment package (upper Sandlin unit) buried earlier south- to southeast-trending paleovalleys (500&ndash;800 m wide) inferred from aeromagnetic data. Two brief incisional events are recognized. The first was caused by the 4.82&plusmn;0.20 Ma basalt flow impounding south-flowing paleodrainages, and the second occurred shortly after emplacement of a 4.69&plusmn;0.09 Ma basalt flow in the northern study area. Drivers responsible for Sandlin unit aggradation may include climate-modulated hydrologic factors (i.e., variable sediment supply and water discharge) or a reduction of eastward tilt rates of the southern San Luis Basin half graben. If regional in extent, these phenomena could also have promoted fluvial spillover that occurred in the southern Albuquerque Basin at about 6&ndash;5 Ma, resulting in southward expansion of the Rio Grande to southern New Mexico.

New Mexico↗