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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Microseismicity at the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara offshore Istanbul, NW Turkey

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) below the Sea of Marmara forms a “seismic gap” where a major earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. This segment of the fault lies between the 1912 Ganos and 1999 İzmit ruptures and is the only NAFZ segment that has not ruptured since 1766. To monitor the microseismic activity at the main fault branch offshore of Istanbul below the Çınarcık Basin, a permanent seismic array (PIRES) was installed on the two outermost Prince Islands, Yassiada and Sivriada, at a few kilometers distance to the fault. In addition, a temporary network of ocean bottom seismometers was deployed throughout the Çınarcık Basin. Slowness vectors are determined combining waveform cross correlation and P wave polarization. We jointly invert azimuth and traveltime observations for hypocenter determination and apply a bootstrap resampling technique to quantify the location precision. We observe seismicity rates of 20 events per month for M < 2.5 along the basin. The spatial distribution of hypocenters suggests that the two major fault branches bounding the depocenter below the Çınarcık Basin merge to one single master fault below ∼17 km depth. On the basis of a cross-correlation technique we group closely spaced earthquakes and determine composite focal mechanisms implementing recordings of surrounding permanent land stations. Fault plane solutions have a predominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, indicating that normal faulting along this part of the NAFZ plays a minor role. Toward the west we observe increasing components of thrust faulting. This supports the model of NW trending, dextral strike-slip motion along the northern and main branch of the NAFZ below the eastern Sea of Marmara.

Istanbul↗
USGS1981

Objectives, accomplishments, and future plans of IGCP project 143, remote sensing and mineral exploration

The International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP) is a worldwide cooperative research programme that began in 1974 under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences. Because of the global availability of Earth resources data collected by satellites and the great interest among geologists in taking advantage of these new sources of information, a project was begun in 1976 to improve the rate of technology transfer in the field of remote-sensing exploration for energy and mineral resources. Conducting joint workshops in cooperation with COSPAR has been an important part of this project. It is to be hoped the project will improve our capability to explore, identify, and develop new resources to meet the burgeoning demands of society. ?? 1981.

Advances in Space Research↗
USGS2007

The 1 km resolution global data set: needs of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme

Examination of the scientific priorities for the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) reveals a requirement for global land data sets in several of its Core Projects. These data sets need to be at several space and time scales. Requirements are demonstrated for the regular acquisition of data at spatial resolutions of 1 km and finer and at high temporal frequencies. Global daily data at a resolution of approximately 1 km are sensed by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), but they have not been available in a single archive. It is proposed, that a global data set of the land surface is created from remotely sensed data from the AVHRR to support a number of IGBP's projects. This data set should have a spatial resolution of 1 km and should be generated at least once every 10 days for the entire globe. The minimum length of record should be a year, and ideally a system should be put in place which leads to the continuous acquisition of 1 km data to provide a base line data set prior to the Earth Observing System (EOS) towards the end of the decade. Because of the high cloud cover in many parts of the world, it is necessary to plan for the collection of data from every orbit. Substantial effort will be required in the preprocessing of the data set involving radiometric calibration, atmospheric correction, geometric correction and temporal compositing, to make it suitable for the extraction of information.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2026

Sedimentological and geochemical characterization of lacustrine deposits of the Babouri-Figuil basin, northern Cameroon: Implications for source rocks distribution and petroleum exploration

The West and Central African Rift System (WCARS) refers to the series of Cretaceous rift basins where commercial hydrocarbon accumulations have been discovered. Some of the WCARS frontier basins are currently being investigated to increase our understanding of these basins in light of new commercial discoveries. The present study was performed in the Babouri-Figuil Basin (BFB), which is genetically related to the WCARS and constitutes an area of interest in terms of petroleum prospecting, where the distribution of petroleum source rocks and potential targets for petroleum exploration across the entire basin is poorly understood. For the current study, an integrated facies analysis along with organic and inorganic geochemical techniques were applied to the basin's Cretaceous deposits with the aim of reconstructing the paleodepositional environment, assessing factors that triggered the input of organic matter, and providing a spatial overview of the organic matter accumulation in the basin based on outcrop samples. An alluvial fan-lacustrine-braided river system is inferred from the facies analysis of the stratigraphic sequence consisting of conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone, limestone, marlstone, and claystone. Bulk analysis of organic matter reveals that black shale and massive claystone are the main prospective petroleum source rocks in the basin. Inorganic geochemical analyses reveal the influence of anoxic conditions, moderate to high primary productivity, and low terrigenous inputs in organic matter enrichment. The formations rich in organic matter are predominantly concentrated in the western and eastern parts of the basin which may represent areas with depressions, characterized by high accommodation space. In terms of the regional context of the WCARS rift basins, typical hydrocarbon exploration in the BFB may target basal-conglomerate, sandstone beds situated directly above or/and interbedded with the Lower Cretaceous source rocks, and the Upper Cretaceous sandstone beds. Basement rocks (granite, granodiorite, and gneisses) and oil shale deposits may represent potential unconventional hydrocarbon exploration. The current integrated study provides an insight that should guide future hydrocarbon exploration campaigns in the basin.

Babouri-Figuil basin↗
USGS1979

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Pacific Northwest region

The Pacific Northwest Region's ground-water reservoirs are capable of providing large additional fresh-water supplies; these reservoirs become more important as undeveloped surface-storage sites and unapportioned surface-water supplies dwindle. Withdrawals of fresh water from all surface and underground sources are increasing; they may rise from the rate of 30 billion gallons per day in 1970 to about 60 billion gallons per day in 2020. By 1975 the withdrawal of ground water had increased 70 percent over the 1970 rate and accounted for 22 percent of total fresh-water withdrawal. Substantial increases in ground-water withdrawal must continue if projected water demands are to be met in the future. Large variations exist in the availability of and needs for ground water in the region, largely because of the great variety of landforms, climate, and earth materials. More than one-half the region is underlain by rock materials capable of yielding ground water to wells at moderate to large rates; six extensive areas are identified as major ground-water reservoirs. The most significant current problems pertaining to one or more of these ground-water reservoirs are: (1) Progressively declining water levels; (2) water-quality problems; (3) waterlogging; (4) inadequate information; and (5) competition for available supplies. In the future these same problems are expected to persist and generally worsen (especially water-quality deterioration) in most of the major reservoir areas. Management opportunities in the region include: (1) Development of new supplies and additional uses of ground water; (2) protection and enhancement of water quality; (3) reduction of waterlogging; (4) energy development from some ground-water reservoirs; (5) improving access to the ground water; (6) increased use of underground space for storage and disposal; and (7) greater use of advanced management and conservation techniques. Conjunctive use of surface and ground water to provide greater available supplies probably is the most promising water-management opportunity. However, if the full potential of the ground-water resources is to be realized, important constraints, including present water-right structures and serious deficiencies in information, must be overcome.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2008

Methane hydrate formation in turbidite sediments of northern Cascadia, IODP Expedition 311

Expedition 311 of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) to northern Cascadia recovered gas-hydrate bearing sediments along a SW-NE transect from the first ridge of the accretionary margin to the eastward limit of gas-hydrate stability. In this study we contrast the gas gas-hydrate distribution from two sites drilled ~ 8??km apart in different tectonic settings. At Site U1325, drilled on a depositional basin with nearly horizontal sedimentary sequences, the gas-hydrate distribution shows a trend of increasing saturation toward the base of gas-hydrate stability, consistent with several model simulations in the literature. Site U1326 was drilled on an uplifted ridge characterized by faulting, which has likely experienced some mass wasting events. Here the gas hydrate does not show a clear depth-distribution trend, the highest gas-hydrate saturation occurs well within the gas-hydrate stability zone at the shallow depth of ~ 49??mbsf. Sediments at both sites are characterized by abundant coarse-grained (sand) layers up to 23??cm in thickness, and are interspaced within fine-grained (clay and silty clay) detrital sediments. The gas-hydrate distribution is punctuated by localized depth intervals of high gas-hydrate saturation, which preferentially occur in the coarse-grained horizons and occupy up to 60% of the pore space at Site U1325 and > 80% at Site U1326. Detailed analyses of contiguous samples of different lithologies show that when enough methane is present, about 90% of the variance in gas-hydrate saturation can be explained by the sand (> 63????m) content of the sediments. The variability in gas-hydrate occupancy of sandy horizons at Site U1326 reflects an insufficient methane supply to the sediment section between 190 and 245??mbsf. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS1980

Grooved terrain on Ganymede

The icy crust of Ganymede comprises bright and dark areas. Investigation of Voyager 1 and 2 images has shown that bright terrain is grooved and separates dark polygons of cratered terrain. The grooved terrain contains alternating ridges and grooves in straight and curvilinear sets, which are locally interrupted by smooth patches and swaths. Cratered terrain, where 'it occurs in small wedges and slivers, has a pervasive grain of narrowly spaced furrows, and thus is transitional to grooved terrain. An analysis of the morphology of terrain types, and of superposition and cross-cutting relations, suggests that grooved terrain grew at the expense of cratered terrain, that tracts of cratered terrain were converted into grooved terrain in situ , and that vertical tectonism and shear movements dominated in the restructuring of Ganymede's surface. It is postulated that during a period in the planet's history when the lithosphere was thin, upwelling convection currents caused incipient rifting accompanied by intensive normal faulting; where rifting went to completion, crustal segments separated, locally spread apart, and sheared past one another. In places subduction and compression may have occurred, but the evidence is inconclusive. Thus, the grooved terrain on Ganymede may record an early phase of ice-plate tectonics that caused rifting and drifting of the icy lithosphere, but, unlike silicate plate tectonics on Earth, may have resulted in only minor vertical turnover.

Icarus↗
USGS2011

Pseudospectral modeling and dispersion analysis of Rayleigh waves in viscoelastic media

Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) is one of the most widely used techniques in environmental and engineering geophysics to determine shear-wave velocities and dynamic properties, which is based on the elastic layered system theory. Wave propagation in the Earth, however, has been recognized as viscoelastic and the propagation of Rayleigh waves presents substantial differences in viscoelastic media as compared with elastic media. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out numerical simulation and dispersion analysis of Rayleigh waves in viscoelastic media to better understand Rayleigh-wave behaviors in the real world. We apply a pseudospectral method to the calculation of the spatial derivatives using a Chebyshev difference operator in the vertical direction and a Fourier difference operator in the horizontal direction based on the velocity-stress elastodynamic equations and relations of linear viscoelastic solids. This approach stretches the spatial discrete grid to have a minimum grid size near the free surface so that high accuracy and resolution are achieved at the free surface, which allows an effective incorporation of the free surface boundary conditions since the Chebyshev method is nonperiodic. We first use an elastic homogeneous half-space model to demonstrate the accuracy of the pseudospectral method comparing with the analytical solution, and verify the correctness of the numerical modeling results for a viscoelastic half-space comparing the phase velocities of Rayleigh wave between the theoretical values and the dispersive image generated by high-resolution linear Radon transform. We then simulate three types of two-layer models to analyze dispersive-energy characteristics for near-surface applications. Results demonstrate that the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves in viscoelastic media is relatively higher than in elastic media and the fundamental mode increases by 10-16% when the frequency is above 10. Hz due to the velocity dispersion of P and S waves. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2009

Passive seismic monitoring of natural and induced earthquakes: Case studies, future directions and socio-economic relevance

An important discovery in crustal mechanics has been that the Earth&rsquo;s crust is commonly stressed close to failure, even in tectonically quiet areas. As a result, small natural or man-made perturbations to the local stress field may trigger earthquakes. To understand these processes, Passive Seismic Monitoring (PSM) with seismometer arrays is a widely used technique that has been successfully applied to study seismicity at different magnitude levels ranging from acoustic emissions generated in the laboratory under controlled conditions, to seismicity induced by hydraulic stimulations in geological reservoirs, and up to great earthquakes occurring along plate boundaries. In all these environments the appropriate deployment of seismic sensors, i.e., directly on the rock sample, at the earth&rsquo;s surface or in boreholes close to the seismic sources allows for the detection and location of brittle failure processes at sufficiently low magnitude-detection threshold and with adequate spatial resolution for further analysis. One principal aim is to develop an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring at the seismic source and their relationship to the host geologic environment. In this paper we review selected case studies and future directions of PSM efforts across a wide range of scales and environments. These include induced failure within small rock samples, hydrocarbon reservoirs, and natural seismicity at convergent and transform plate boundaries. Each example represents a milestone with regard to bridging the gap between laboratory-scale experiments under controlled boundary conditions and large-scale field studies. The common motivation for all studies is to refine the understanding of how earthquakes nucleate, how they proceed and how they interact in space and time. This is of special relevance at the larger end of the magnitude scale, i.e., for large devastating earthquakes due to their severe socio-economic impact.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

Orogenic gold and geologic time: A global synthesis

Orogenic gold deposits have formed over more than 3 billion years of Earth's history, episodically during the Middle Archean to younger Precambrian, and continuously throughout the Phanerozoic. This class of gold deposit is characteristically associated with deformed and metamorphosed mid-crustal blocks, particularly in spatial association with major crustal structures. A consistent spatial and temporal association with granitoids of a variety of compositions indicates that melts and fluids were both inherent products of thermal events during orogenesis. Including placer accumulations, which are commonly intimately associated with this mineral deposit type, recognized production and resources from economic Phanerozoic orogenic-gold deposits are estimated at just over one billion ounces gold. Exclusive of the still-controversial Witwatersrand ores, known Precambrian gold concentrations are about half this amount. The recent increased applicability of global paleo-reconstructions, coupled with improved geochronology from most of the world's major gold camps, allows for an improved understanding of the distribution pattern of orogenic gold in space and time.

Ore Geology Reviews↗
USGS2020

Geomagnetism Program research plan, 2020–2024

The Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors geomagnetic field variation through operation of a network of observatories across the United States and its territories, and it pursues scientific research needed to estimate and assess geomagnetic and geoelectric hazards. Over the next five years (2020–2024 inclusive) and in support of national and agency priorities, Geomagnetism Program research scientists plan to pursue an integrated set of research projects broadly encompassing empirical estimation and mapping of geomagnetic disturbance, modeling of solid-Earth conductivity structure and surface impedance, and mapping of magnetic-storm-induced geoelectric fields. Analyses are empirically based, relying on measured time series as well as statistical and numerical modeling of geomagnetic-monitoring data from ground-based observatories and surface-impedance tensors acquired during magnetotelluric surveys. The plan describes augmentation and development of the Geomagnetism Program's existing research portfolio, assuming present funding levels and staffing numbers. Because the projects are interdependent, they cannot be straightforwardly prioritized. They will all be pursued as resources and time permit; additional funding and staffing would enable the projects to be broadened and more rapidly completed. Where appropriate and subject to budgetary constraints and staffing numbers, research on specific projects might be accelerated or even judiciously expanded—some opportunities for expansion are discussed in this plan. Results will provide realistic illumination of the nature of the ground-level expression of space-weather disturbance, a subject of particular importance for projects focused on evaluating the vulnerability of electric-power-grid systems. This plan does not cover Geomagnetism Program operations, which are primarily concerned with the operation of magnetic observatories and, now, magnetotelluric surveys, although the context of such observatories and surveys is discussed. The research element of the program provides guidance for the expansion of program operations and research projects. In addition to the research projects summarized here, program scientists continue to provide leadership to the national and international geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and space-weather communities.

Circular↗
USGS2006

Cross-calibration of MODIS with ETM+ and ALI sensors for long-term monitoring of land surface processes

Increasingly, data from multiple sensors are used to gain a more complete understanding of land surface processes at a variety of scales. Although higher-level products (e.g., vegetation cover, albedo, surface temperature) derived from different sensors can be validated independently, the degree to which these sensors and their products can be compared to one another is vastly improved if their relative spectroradiometric responses are known. Most often, sensors are directly calibrated to diffuse solar irradiation or vicariously to ground targets. However, space-based targets are not traceable to metrological standards, and vicarious calibrations are expensive and provide a poor sampling of a sensor's full dynamic range. Crosscalibration of two sensors can augment these methods if certain conditions can be met: (1) the spectral responses are similar, (2) the observations are reasonably concurrent (similar atmospheric & solar illumination conditions), (3) errors due to misregistrations of inhomogeneous surfaces can be minimized (including scale differences), and (4) the viewing geometry is similar (or, some reasonable knowledge of surface bi-directional reflectance distribution functions is available). This study explores the impacts of cross-calibrating sensors when such conditions are met to some degree but not perfectly. In order to constrain the range of conditions at some level, the analysis is limited to sensors where cross-calibration studies have been conducted (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) on Landsat-7 (L7), Advance Land Imager (ALI) and Hyperion on Earth Observer-1 (EO-1)) and including systems having somewhat dissimilar geometry, spatial resolution & spectral response characteristics but are still part of the so-called "A.M. constellation" (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra platform). Measures for spectral response differences and methods for cross calibrating such sensors are provided in this study. These instruments are cross calibrated using the Railroad Valley playa in Nevada. Best fit linear coefficients (slope and offset) are provided for ALI-to-MODIS and ETM+-to-MODIS cross calibrations, and root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) and correlation coefficients are provided to quantify the uncertainty in these relationships. In theory, the linear fits and uncertainties can be used to compare radiance and reflectance products derived from each instrument.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2020

A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism

We report 4 years of temperature profiles collected from May 2014 to May 2018 in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole U1364A in the frontal accretionary prism of the Cascadia subduction zone. The temperature data extend to depths of nearly 300 m below seafloor (mbsf), spanning the gas hydrate stability zone at the location and a clear bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) at ∼230 mbsf. When the hole was drilled in 2010, a pressure-monitoring Advanced CORK (ACORK) observatory was installed, sealed at the bottom by a bridge plug and cement below 302 mbsf. In May 2014, a temperature profile was collected by lowering a probe down the hole from the ROV ROPOS. From July 2016 through May 2018, temperature data were collected during a nearly two-year deployment of a 24-thermistor cable installed to 268 m below seafloor (mbsf). The cable and a seismic-tilt instrument package also deployed in 2016 were connected to the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) NEPTUNE cabled observatory in June of 2017, after which the thermistor temperatures were logged by Ocean Networks Canada at one-minute intervals until failure of the main ethernet switch in the integrated seafloor control unit in May 2018. The thermistor array had been designed with concentrated vertical spacing around the bottom-simulating reflector and two pressure-monitoring screens at 203 and 244 mbsf, with wider thermistor spacing elsewhere to document the geothermal state up to seafloor. The 4 years of data show a generally linear temperature gradient of 0.055°C/m consistent with a heat flux of 61–64 mW/m 2 . The data show no indications of thermal transients. A slight departure from a linear gradient provides an approximate limit of ∼10 −10 m/s for any possible slow upward advection of pore fluids. In-situ temperatures are ∼15.8°C at the BSR position, consistent with methane hydrate stability at that depth and pressure.

Cascadia subduction zone↗
USGS1999

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗
USGS2009

Thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments

A thorough understanding of the thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments is necessary for evaluating phase transformation processes that would accompany energy production from gas hydrate deposits and for estimating regional heat flow based on the observed depth to the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. The coexistence of multiple phases (gas hydrate, liquid and gas pore fill, and solid sediment grains) and their complex spatial arrangement hinder the a priori prediction of the thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments. Previous studies have been unable to capture the full parameter space covered by variations in grain size, specific surface, degree of saturation, nature of pore filling material, and effective stress for hydrate-bearing samples. Here we report on systematic measurements of the thermal conductivity of air dry, water- and tetrohydrofuran (THF)-saturated, and THF hydrate–saturated sand and clay samples at vertical effective stress of 0.05 to 1 MPa (corresponding to depths as great as 100 m below seafloor). Results reveal that the bulk thermal conductivity of the samples in every case reflects a complex interplay among particle size, effective stress, porosity, and fluid-versus-hydrate filled pore spaces. The thermal conductivity of THF hydrate–bearing soils increases upon hydrate formation although the thermal conductivities of THF solution and THF hydrate are almost the same. Several mechanisms can contribute to this effect including cryogenic suction during hydrate crystal growth and the ensuing porosity reduction in the surrounding sediment, increased mean effective stress due to hydrate formation under zero lateral strain conditions, and decreased interface thermal impedance as grain-liquid interfaces are transformed into grain-hydrate interfaces.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2020

Modified GIC estimation using 3-D Earth conductivity

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are quasi-direct current (DC) electric currents that flow in technological conductors during geomagnetic storms. Extreme GICs are hazardous to man-made infrastructure. GICs enter and exit the technological systems, such as the electric power grid, at grounding points, and their magnitudes depend on the currents that flow underground. They are, therefore, a function of the Earth's electrical conductivity, represented at ground level as Earth impedances, as well as the resistance parameters of the power network. Traditional GIC estimation practices are based on Earth impedances obtained from laterally homogeneous or piecewise layered-Earth models. We refer to these methods, collectively, as the 1-D approximation. However, GIC hazard mitigation can be improved with more accurate GIC modeling that takes the spatially heterogeneous Earth's conductivity into account. Here, we propose a modified approximation for GIC estimation that is very similar to the 1-D approximation but is instead derived from empirical 3-D Earth impedances. Our formulation sets up the computation of static, frequency-dependent power line telluric response functions, which, once computed, may be considered part of the power grid system model. These response functions may then be used for historical scenario analysis of GIC hazards and for simplified real-time, albeit approximate, GIC estimation in a power grid. This modest modification to the simpler local field formulation approach avoids real-time integration of geoelectric fields along power lines while taking the realistic 3-D Earth into account in a rigorous manner. Once implemented, the method provides a power grid operator with the benefits of convenience and computational speed for a first look real-time operational GIC hazard assessment. We estimate that the proposed modified 3-D GIC modeling approach produces GIC values that are well within 50% of those obtained with the full-scale power line integration of spatially variable geoelectric fields, for storms comparable in scale to the 2003 Halloween storm, all geological structures, and power lines located in the contiguous United States and other low- to middle-latitude regions.

Space Weather↗
USGS2011

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Biogeochemistry↗
USGS2019

Multidecadal geomorphic evolution of a profoundly disturbed gravel-bed river system—a complex, nonlinear response and its impact on sediment delivery

A 2.5-km3 debris avalanche during the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens reset the fluvial landscape of upper North Fork Toutle River valley. Since then, a new drainage network has formed and evolved. Cross-section surveys repeated over nearly 40 years at 16 locations along a 20-km reach of river valley document channel evolution, geomorphic processes, and their impacts on sediment delivery. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in channel morphology using two new metrics: 1) a shape index that defines the degree of U-shaped or V-shaped valley geometry; and 2) an alluvial phase-space diagram that relates bed degradation or aggradation between consecutive surveys to increases or decreases in cross-section area. Metric relations reveal more diverse channel evolution than originally described by a simple, linear-response model of sequential channel initiation and incision; aggradation and widening; and subsequent episodic scour and fill with little change in bed elevation. Instead, vertical and lateral adjustments have been crucial processes intertwined throughout channel evolution. Channel evolution has followed a distinctly nonlinear and non-sequential trajectory, migrating through several phase spaces and involving varied combinations of (1) degradation and aggradation with widening and narrowing, (2) bed-level fluctuations with little change in cross-section area, and (3) changes in cross-section area with little change of bed elevation. Persistent channel widening and reworking of the channel bed presently drive elevated sediment delivery from this basin. Elevated sediment delivery is likely to persist until valley-floor widths greatly exceed that of the channel-migration corridor, and/or channel banks and valley walls stabilize.

Washington↗