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USGS2022

Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Arctic coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and the loss of permafrost, sea ice and glaciers. Assessing the influence of anthropogenic warming on Arctic coastal dynamics, however, is challenged by the limited availability of observational, oceanographic and environmental data. Yet, with the majority of permafrost coasts being erosive, coupled with projected intensification of erosion and flooding, understanding these changes is critical. In this Review, we describe the morphological diversity of Arctic coasts, discuss important drivers of coastal change, explain the specific sensitivity of Arctic coasts to climate change and provide an overview of pan-Arctic shoreline change and its multifaceted impacts. Arctic coastal changes impact the human environment by threatening coastal settlements, infrastructure, cultural sites and archaeological remains. Changing sediment fluxes also impact the natural environment through carbon, nutrient and pollutant release on a magnitude that remains difficult to predict. Increasing transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary collaboration efforts will build the foundation for identifying sustainable solutions and adaptation strategies to reduce future risks for those living on, working at and visiting the rapidly changing Arctic coast.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Coastal single-beam bathymetry data collected in 2015 from the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana

As part of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted a single-beam bathymetry survey around the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, in June 2015. The goal of the program is to provide long-term data on Louisiana’s barrier islands and use this data to plan, design, evaluate, and maintain current and future barrier island restoration projects. The data described in this report, along with (1) USGS bathymetry data collected in 2013 as a part of the Barrier Island Evolution Research project covering the northern Chandeleur Islands, and (2) data collected in 2014 in collaboration with the Louisiana CPRA Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program around Breton Island, will be used to assess bathymetric change since 2006‒2007 as well as serve as a bathymetric control in supporting modeling of future changes in response to restoration and storm impacts. The survey area encompasses approximately 435 square kilometers of nearshore and back-barrier environments around Hewes Point, the Chandeleur Islands, and Curlew and Grand Gosier Shoals. This Data Series serves as an archive of processed single-beam bathymetry data, collected in the nearshore of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, from June 17‒24, 2015, during USGS Field Activity Number 2015-317-FA. Geographic information system data products include a 200-meter-cell-size interpolated bathymetry grid, trackline maps, and xyz point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata.

Louisiana↗
USGS2008

Coast salish and U.S. Geological Survey: Tribal journey water quality project

The ancestral waters of the Coast Salish People, the Salish Sea, comprise a large inland sea contained within both United States (Puget Sound) and Canadian (Georgia Strait) territory. The Salish Sea is home to more than 220 species of fish, 29 species of marine mammals, more than 40 species of commercial and recreationally harvested invertebrates, and numerous resident and migratory bird species (Washington Sea Grant Program, 2000). Unfortunately, at least 60 of these marine based species are listed as threatened, endangered or of concern (Fraser and others, 2006), many of which sustained Coast Salish for millennia and are of essential cultural importance. The cumulative impacts of human activities and climate change are deteriorating coastal ecosystems and accelerating the loss of ecologically and culturally important marine resources. Watershed modifications, coastal development and industrial activities are altering river and tidal flow, sediment transport, and nutrient delivery all across the region, leading to the break down of ecosystem functions and decreasing biodiversity, thus changing the face of the Salish Sea. A cooperative trans-boundary partnership between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Government of Canada has identified Salish Sea indicators of health. Several of these indicators have been noted as having degrading quality including urbanization and forest change, river, stream, and lake quality, marine species at risk, toxics in harbor seals, and marine water quality conditions (USEPA, 2008). The functioning of the Salish Sea ecosystem is increasingly threatened by ever more frequent observations and expanding zones of anoxia. The complexities of monitoring, protecting, and restoring such a large and diverse geographical area are exacerbated by a political border. The Coast Salish Peoples and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have commenced on a partnership to examine water quality throughout the Georgia Straits and Puget Sound, blending tradition and science, in response to this deterioration of coastal environments and loss of essential habitats and marine resources of cultural and ecological importance throughout the ancestral waters of the Salish Sea. This report describes the Coast Salish Tribal Journey Water Quality Project, its inception, the results of the 2008 Tribal Journey project, lessons learned, and recommendations for future directions.

Report↗
USGS2026

Hydrological control on soil redox condition and carbon loss of coastal wetland under sea-kevel rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO 2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Louisiana↗
USGS1984

Ball clay and bentonite deposits of the central and western Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain, United States

The Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain produces approximately 85 percent of the ball clay used in the United States. The best commercial-grade clay deposits are composed of poorly crystalline kaolinite and small amounts of Md illite and (or) smectite. Sand and silt and iron oxide minerals are virtually absent, but quartz is present in the clay-size fraction. The best grade ball clays are found as lenses limited to the Wilcox Group (Paleocene and lower Eocene) and Claiborne Group (middle Eocene). Reserves of ball clay are sufficient for the present, but because of the lenticular nature of the clay bodies, close-spaced drilling, detailed sampling, mineralogic analyses, and ceramic testing are needed to prove future reserves. Approximately 11 percent of the total bentonite produced in the United States comes from the Gulf Coast region. The commercial-grade bentonites are composed primarily of smectite with little or no Md illite and kaolinite. The nonclay impurities are quartz, feldspar, muscovite, biotite, calcite, dolomite, gypsum, and heulandite. Commercial bentonites occur in the Upper Cretaceous formations in Alabama and Mississippi, in Paleocene formations in Mississippi and Tennessee, and in Eocene and Miocene formations in Texas. The demand for low-swelling bentonite of the Gulf Coastal Plain has not increased along with the demand for swelling bentonite; therefore the reserves are adequate.

Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississipp↗
USGS2023

Quantifying uncertainty in coastal salinity regime for biological application using quantile regression

Salinity regimes in coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and driven by complex geomorphic and hydrological processes. Estuarine biota are generally adapted to salinity fluctuation, but are vulnerable to salinity extremes. Characterizing coastal salinity regime for ecological studies therefore requires representing extremes of salinity ranges at time scales relevant to ecology (e.g., daily, monthly, and seasonally). Here, we propose a framework for modeling coastal salinity with these overall goals: (1) quantify uncertainty in salinity associated with important terrestrial and oceanographic drivers, (2) examine time scales of salinity response to river streamflow events, and (3) predict salinity continuously over space at key time scales. Salinity is modeled as quantile surfaces related to river discharge, tidal dynamics, wind, and spatial location, applied to Suwannee Sound estuary, FL, USA, where salinity has been monitored spatially since 1981. Each quantile level is regressed independently, and together they comprise a distribution of salinity uncertainty across space, with upper and lower quantiles describing salinity extremes. Effects of physical drivers on salinity are compared through four base models with various combinations of tide and wind variables, each including spatial coordinates and a single streamflow metric (in cubic meters per second). Multiple time scales of streamflow are considered by taking means across various periods, from 1 to 12 days, and at various lagged intervals prior to salinity sample, totaling 144 streamflow metrics. We found that the Suwannee coastal salinity regime is dynamic at multiple time scales and varies nonlinearly across space from the river effluence outward. Salinity increases nonlinearly with decreasing river flow rates below 200 m 3 /s, most prominently in the lower quantiles of salinity (τ = 0.05–0.25). Wind appears to have a stronger influence on salinity than astronomic tides for this estuary. The regression approach developed here can be applied to any coastal system that has sufficient spatial and temporal monitoring coverage to capture multiple flood and drought events. It is implemented with a simple R routine, and is less computationally-intensive than finite difference hydrodynamic modeling. The characterizations of salinity uncertainty developed in these analyses can be directly applied to future studies of fish and wildlife responses to changes in watershed management.

Florida↗
USGS2015

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum . We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases↗
USGS2020

Assessing the exposure of three diving bird species to offshore wind areas on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf using satellite telemetry

Aim The United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) has considerable offshore wind energy potential. Capturing that resource is part of a broader effort to reduce CO 2 emissions. While few turbines have been constructed in U.S. waters, over a dozen currently planned offshore wind projects have the potential to displace marine birds, potentially leading to effective habitat loss. We focused on three diving birds identified in Europe to be vulnerable to displacement. Our research aimed to determine their potential exposure to areas designated or proposed for offshore wind development along the Atlantic OCS. Methods Satellite tracking technology was used to determine the spatial and temporal use and movement patterns of Surf Scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ), Red‐throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) and Northern Gannets ( Morus bassanus ), and calculate their exposure to each offshore wind area. We tagged 236 adults in 2012–2015 on the Atlantic OCS from New Jersey to North Carolina; an additional 147 birds tagged in previous tracking studies were integrated into our analyses. Tracking data were analysed in two‐week intervals using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to develop composite spatial utilization distributions. For each species, these distributions were then used to calculate the spatio‐temporal exposure to each offshore wind area. Results Surf Scoters and Red‐throated Loons were exposed to offshore wind areas almost exclusively during migration because these species were distributed among coastal and inshore waters during winter months. In contrast, Northern Gannets ranged over a much larger area, reaching farther offshore and south in winter, thus exhibited the greatest exposure to extant offshore wind areas. Conclusions Results of this study provide better understanding of how diving birds use current and potential future offshore wind areas on the Atlantic OCS, and can inform permitting, risk assessment and pre‐ and post‐construction impact assessments of offshore energy infrastructure.

Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf↗
USGS2015

Baseline water-quality sampling to infer nutrient and contaminant sources at Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai‘i, 2009

Baseline water-quality sampling was conducted for dissolved nutrients and for chemical and isotopic tracers at Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park on the Island of Hawai'i. Existing and future urbanization in the surrounding areas have the potential to affect water quality in the Park, and so the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey designed a water-sampling strategy to document baseline conditions against which future changes can be compared. Sites in and near the Park were sampled twice, in July and December 2009, and included four anchialine pools, two large fishponds, five monitoring wells, an upland production well, tap water, and a holding pond for golf-course irrigation water. Water samples within the coastal park were brackish, ranging in salinity from 15 to 67 percent seawater. Samples were analyzed for dissolved inorganic nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), stable isotopes (nitrogen and oxygen in dissolved nitrate; hydrogen and oxygen in the water molecule), pharmaceuticals, wastewater compounds, and volatile organic compounds. A case of acute, but temporary, fertilizer contamination was evident along the Park's north boundary during the turf grow-in period of a newly constructed golf course. A maximum nitrogen concentration 280 percent above background level was measured in monitoring well MW401 in July, later falling to 109 percent above background by December. Two nearby sites (MW400 and AP 144) had nitrogen concentrations that were elevated compared to remaining sites but less severely than at MW401. Aside from this localized fertilizer influence, other water samples had lower nutrient enrichments: 40 percent or less above background for nitrogen and 57 percent or less above background for phosphorus. Background was defined in this study by a graphical mixing line between saltwater from a deep well in the Park and freshwater at a reference well in the mountainous uplands (Honokōhau production well, at 1,675 ft altitude). Potential nutrient sources between the uplands and coastal lowlands that could contribute to enrichment include rock weathering, natural vegetation, fertilizers, septic leachate, and atmospheric deposition – including motor-vehicle exhaust. Some fraction of septic leachate is expected in groundwater because there are unsewered suburban and commercial developments upslope from the Park that rely on cesspools and septic systems. However, stable isotopes of nitrate did not implicate septic-waste nitrogen (heavy δ 15 N values on the order of +10 per mil or greater). Instead, the heaviest δ 15 N values of +6 to +8 per mil were associated with the large fishponds, likely as a result of biotic cycling. Water samples with δ 15 N values of +3 to +5 per mil were still isotopically heavier than the upland groundwater value of +2 per mil and likely reflect addition of heavier nitrogen, possibly from septic sources, nitrogen-fixing vegetation, or vehicular exhaust. Pharmaceuticals, wastewater compounds, and volatile organic compounds indicated that if contamination is present, it appears to be at low, barely detectable, levels--at least as reflected by the results of this study. The most diagnostic indication of septic contamination was at monitoring well KAHO 2, closest to Kaloko Light Industrial Park, where three pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, and thiobendazole) were detected at trace-level parts-per-trillion concentrations. A screening-level test for laundry fabric brighteners indicated positive detection at most sites; however, readings were quite low and if laundry graywater is present, it appears to be a small, dilute fraction. Because the weather was persistently dry throughout the study period, the USGS team was unable to conduct a wet-weather “storm” sampling. Wet-weather results are expected to differ from those reported here, though by how much remains unknown.

Hawai‘i↗
USGS2023

Groundwater availability, geochemistry, and flow pathways to public-supply wells in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and bedrock aquifers, Aiken County and part of Lexington County, South Carolina, 2015–2019

Between 2015 and 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studied concerns related to projected increases in demand for groundwater, in collaboration with municipal water providers and county managers within the study area, Aiken County and part of Lexington County, South Carolina. A three-dimensional (3D), numerical groundwater-flow model of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) aquifers, confining units, and the underlying bedrock aquifer in the study area was constructed using the USGS software program MODFLOW–NWT in conjunction with a groundwater-recharge model using the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model. Water budgets for dry (2012) and wet (2015) year conditions, future (2017–2065) groundwater-demand scenarios based on general circulation models (GCMs) of future climates, and future agricultural irrigation demands were simulated. Overall, the GCMs projected increased recharge rates. Simulation of projected increased demand on groundwater by agriculture irrigation indicated little drawdown in the study area. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from representative public-supply wells (PSWs) and analyzed in the field and laboratory. In general, the groundwater in the ACP aquifers is acidic, dilute, and oxic. Conversely, groundwater in the bedrock aquifer was of neutral pH, mineralized, and anoxic. Total-radium concentrations across all PSWs ranged from 0.55 to 6.69 picocuries per liter (pCi/L). Groundwater from some PSWs contained detectable but low concentrations of commonly and historically used volatile organic compounds, such as chloroform, methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), cis -1,2-dichloroethylene ( cis -1,2-DCE), 1,1-dichloroethane (1,1-DCA), and 1,1-dichloroethylene (1,1-DCE). The stable isotopes of groundwater sampled from all wells indicate the possibility that groundwater from the bedrock aquifer may discharge into the ACP. Finally, groundwater age-dating results and MODPATH simulations indicate recharge between the 1950s and 1980s for PSWs in the ACP and recharge between the 1940s and 1950s for PSWs in bedrock. Maximum groundwater-flow pathways ranged from 270 to 7,470 feet, with the longest simulated-flow pathway for wells pumped at higher rates.

South Carolina↗
USGS2019

Fish assemblage structure and fisheries resources in Puerto Rico’s riverine estuaries

Tropical estuaries are diverse and productive habitats with respect to their fish assemblages and associated fisheries, but these ecosystems and fisheries are imperiled by multiple anthropogenic threats. Despite the economic, social, and biodiversity value of tropical estuarine fish assemblages, they are poorly understood, especially those on Caribbean islands. We sampled the fish assemblages of four estuaries that were broadly representative of riverine estuaries in Puerto Rico, including the Río Grande de Arecibo, Río Espiritu Santo, Río Mameyes, and Río Sabana. We used a combination of passive (gill nets) and active (seine) gears at locations that spanned the salinity gradient of each estuary during July–October 2013–2014 (rainy season) and March 2015 (dry season). Fish species richness among the riverine estuaries varied from 18 to 29 and was highest in the Río Espiritu Santo estuary. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling differentiated fish assemblages among estuaries but not by season or consistently by location within an estuary. Spearman's rank correlation analysis also revealed dissimilarity among each estuary's fish assemblage, as most pairwise correlations between the species compositions were not significant. We identified common and widespread species among estuaries, including sport fishes, such as the Tarpon Megalops atlanticus and Common Snook Centropomus undecimalis . As the only multi‐river assessment of riverine estuary fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, our results provide the best available information about the spatial variability of assemblages and fisheries resources. This information will benefit future conservation and fisheries management efforts, which are needed due to increasing anthropogenic impacts, such as illegal harvest, invasive species, and water diversions.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Assessing the water quality impacts of two Category-5 hurricanes on St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

Managing waterborne and water-related diseases is one of the most critical factors in the aftermath of hurricane-induced natural disasters. The goal of the study was to identify water-quality impairments in order to set the priorities for post-hurricane relief and to guide future decisions on disaster preparation and relief administration. Field investigations were carried out on St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands as soon as the disaster area became accessible after the back-to-back hurricane strikes by Irma and Maria in 2017. Water samples were collected from individual household rain cisterns, the coastal ocean, and street-surface runoffs for microbial concentration. The microbial community structure and the occurrence of potential human pathogens were investigated in samples using next generation sequencing. Loop mediated isothermal amplification was employed to detect fecal indicator bacteria, Enterococcus faecalis . The results showed both fecal indicator bacteria and Legionella genetic markers were prevalent but were low in concentration in the water samples. Among the 22 cistern samples, 86% were positive for Legionella and 82% for Escherichia-Shigella . Enterococcus faecalis was detected in over 68% of the rain cisterns and in 60% of the coastal waters (n = 20). Microbial community composition in coastal water samples was significantly different from cistern water and runoff water. Although identification at bacterial genus level is not direct evidence of human pathogens, our results suggest cistern water quality needs more organized attention for protection of human health, and that preparation and prevention measures should be taken before natural disasters strike.

Water Research↗
USGS2022

Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers

Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ) habitat availability, and probability of storm overwash under three scenarios of shoreline change (SLC) and compared results to observed 2014/2015 conditions. Scenarios assumed increasing rates of mean SLC from 0 to 4.71 m erosion per year. We observed uncertainty in several morphological predictions (e.g., beach width, dune height), suggesting decreasing confidence that Fire Island will evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. Where most likely conditions could be determined, models predicted that Fire Island would become flatter, narrower, and more overwash-prone with increasing rates of SLC. Beach ecosystems were predicted to respond dynamically to SLR and migrate with the shoreline, while marshes lost the most area of any landcover type compared to 2014/2015 conditions. Such morphological changes may lead to increased flooding or breaching with coastal storms. However—although modest declines in piping plover habitat were observed with SLC—the dynamic response of beaches, flatter topography, and increased likelihood of overwash suggest storms could promote suitable conditions for nesting piping plovers above what our geomorphology models predict. Therefore, Fire Island may offer a conservation opportunity for coastal species that rely on early successional beach environments if natural overwash processes are encouraged.

New York↗
USGS2017

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2014

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2003

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury from boats and other human causes and control the loss of foraging habitat to coastal development.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Mid-piacenzian of the north Atlantic Ocean

The Piacenzian Age (Pliocene) represents a past climate interval within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models can be tested, and results can be placed in a context to better prepare for future change. Here we focus on the North Atlantic region, incorporating new and existing faunal assemblage and alkenone data from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 642, 662, 982, and 999, and International Ocean Discovery Program Sites 1308 and 1313 into our paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cores and outcrop material containing Piacenzian sediments from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia, USA, are also included. These data allow us to characterize regional changes in temperature, salinity, upwelling, surface productivity, and diversity, associated with climate transitions, and make nuanced reconstructions of mid-Piacenzian conditions within a high-resolution temporal framework between ~3.40 and ~3.15 Ma, inclusive of Marine Isotope Stages M2 through KM5. We include an initial comparison of estimated sea-surface temperature to coupled climate model simulations, which shows improvement in model adherence to paleoclimate parameters over previous data-model comparisons for the Pliocene.

Stratigraphy↗