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USGS1998

Wetland connectivity and waterbird conservation in the western Great Basin of the United States: Introduction to workshop

As scientists, managers and landowners, we have come to realize that to best understand the local and regional value of individual wetlands, we need to take a broad geographic, taxonomic, and management view. In December 1994, a symposium was held in Reno, Nevada that addressed this topic for shorebirds by bringing together researchers and managers from the Western Great Basin to discuss shorebird research and management in the region (Reed et al. 1997, International Wader Studies 9). In February 1998, a similar, but broader, symposium was held in Bend, Oregon that addressed wetland connectivity and waterbird conservation in the Western Great Basin. Over 100 participants spent one day listening to talks from waterbird researchers that focused on multi-scale habitat use and movements of birds in the region. From American Avocets Recurvirostra americana to White Pelicans Pelcanus erythrorhynchos we learned of phenomenal intra-season movements throughout the Basin and the value of collecting detailed data of this nature for representative waterbirds. We learned also about the National Shorebird Conservation Plan and spent the next day in discussion groups where future research and management priorities were outlined. These discussions were the first regional planning effort for the National Plan.

Great Basin↗

USGS2012

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in raptors

The use of analgesia has become standard, and appropriate, practice in avian medicine. As in mammals, pain control in avian patients is usually accomplished with opioids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) used singly or in combination for a multimodal approach. Despite their usefulness, widespread use, and relative safety in clinical use, few controlled studies in birds have been conducted on efficacy, safety, and dosing. The guidelines for the use of NSAIDs in raptors and other birds have mainly been empirical. More recently, NSAIDs in free-living raptors have emerged as a major conservation issue with the discovery that diclofenac sodium was responsible for the population crash of three species of Gyps vultures in southern Asia. In this context, residues of veterinary NSAIDs in domestic animals are now considered environmental contaminants that can be significantly toxic to vultures and possibly other avian scavengers. Ironically, the disaster with Asian vultures has led to a considerable body of research on NSAIDs in raptors to the benefit of clinicians who now have scientific information available to help assess dosing, safety, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics of NSAIDs in their raptor patients.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2023

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2015

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2017 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal year 2017 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS2020

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2018 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal year 2018 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2019–20 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal years 2019–20 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

North Dakota↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2021–23 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal years 2021–23 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS1992

Ecology of playa lakes

Between 25,000 and 30,000 playa lakes are in the playa lakes region of the southern high plains (Fig. 1). Most playas are in west Texas (about 20,000), and fewer, in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. The playa lakes region is one of the most intensively cultivated areas of North America. Dominant crops range from cotton in southern areas to cereal grains in the north. Therefore, most of the native short-grass prairie is gone, replaced by crops and, recently, grasses of the Conservation Reserve Program. Playas are the predominant wetlands and major wildlife habitat of the region. More than 115 bird species, including 20 species of waterfowl, and 10 mammal species have been documented in playas. Waterfowl nest in the area, producing up to 250,000 ducklings in wetter years. Dominant breeding and nesting species are mallards and blue-winged teals. During the very protracted breeding season, birds hatch from April through August. Several million shorebirds and waterfowl migrate through the area each spring and fall. More than 400,000 sandhill cranes migrate through and winter in the region, concentrating primarily on the larger saline lakes in the southern portion of the playa lakes region. The primary importance of the playa lakes region to waterfowl is as a wintering area. Wintering waterfowl populations in the playa lakes region range from 1 to 3 million birds, depending on fall precipitation patterns that determine the number of flooded playas. The most common wintering ducks are mallards, northern pintails, green-winged teals, and American wigeons. About 500,000 Canada geese and 100,000 lesser snow geese winter in the playa lakes region, and numbers of geese have increased annually since the early 1980’s. This chapter describes the physiography and ecology of playa lakes and their attributes that benefit waterfowl.

Fish and Wildlife Leaflet↗

USGS2022

Understory structure and heterospecifics influence the occupancy of a ground-nesting species of conservation concern, the Canada Warbler

Forest structure and composition in eastern U.S. forests are changing because of forest regeneration after farmland abandonment, less frequent occurrence of severe disturbances, and climate change. Some of these changes may disproportionally affect birds that rely on gap dynamics or other forest canopy disturbances to create understory habitat. The Canada Warbler ( Cardellina canadensis ) is one such understory specialist that has undergone consistent declines. We assessed environmental and interspecific factors associated with Canada Warbler space use in its southern breeding distribution to understand potential causes of population declines and inform conservation efforts. We evaluated Canada Warbler occupancy from 840 point count surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018 at 470 unique locations (79% of locations surveyed in both years) throughout Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, USA. We modeled Canada Warbler occupancy probability as a function of environmental variables and included Black-throated Blue Warbler ( Setophaga caerulescens ) and Hermit Thrush ( Catharus guttatus ) as interacting species because all three species exhibit similar habitat preferences. Canada Warblers were most likely to occur in areas with rhododendron ( Rhododendron maximum ) density > 0.27 stems/m² and within 3 m of riparian areas (streams and wetlands). They were also more likely to occur in mid-elevation (highest occupancy at 930 m) northern hardwood forests when Black-throated Blue Warblers were also present. Black-throated Blue Warblers were most likely to occupy mid-elevation sites with high shrub density, whereas Hermit Thrushes were more likely to occupy high-elevation, old-age forests. Potential management actions could focus on conserving riparian areas in northern hardwood forests, especially those with dense rhododendron thickets. Such potential actions could also be beneficial across the entire elevation range we explored within the region (500–1300 m). Canada Warblers may be benefiting from the recent spread of rhododendron habitats and northern hardwood forest types within West Virginia.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Understanding how bird populations respond to changes in waterbody availability in the climatically variable Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America hinges on being able to couple hydrological and climate modeling to represent potential future landscapes. Model experiments run with the Pothole Complex Hydrologic Model using downscaled climate data (variables relating to precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at 1/8° spatial resolution under four general circulation climate models and two gas emissions scenarios) were used to forecast the abundances of six focal wetland‐dependent bird species in the Missouri Coteau portion of the PPR, providing ensemble scenarios at a spatial scale relevant to resource management. Although the projected number of May ponds (waterbodies present during bird breeding season) fluctuated through time with some decadal periodicity (and with the number present in a given year reflecting abundance over the previous three years), the ensemble model average indicated an increase in the average number of waterbodies present by the turn of the next century. Overall, the model experiments conservatively projected an 11.75% increase in the number of waterbodies present by 2090–2099 compared to a baseline period from 1967 to 2005 in the PPR. Wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance were significantly associated with temporal patterns and decadal periodicity in waterbody dynamics. Because of the strong associations between wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance and the number of prairie potholes, projected waterbody increases are forecasted to result in an 11.97% overall increase in occurrence and 8.63% increase in abundance of the six focal species by the end of the 21st century; these results contrast with forecasted drought‐associated declines in waterbodies and birds in the PPR. This integrated hydrological–climatological approach offers a means of assessing how wetland‐dependent bird populations may respond to changes in wetland habitat availability due to a changing climate. Our results provide information that can help managers decide how to mitigate the effects of climate shifts on the distribution of wetland habitat and biota.

North Dakota↗

USGS2001

Geographic variation and genetic structure in Spotted Owls

We examined genetic variation, population structure, and definition of conservation units in Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis ). Spotted Owls are mostly non-migratory, long-lived, socially monogamous birds that have decreased population viability due to their occupation of highly-fragmented late successional forests in western North America. To investigate potential effects of habitat fragmentation on population structure, we used random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) to examine genetic variation hierarchically among local breeding areas , subregional groups , regional groups , and subspecies via sampling of 21 breeding areas (276individuals) among the three subspecies of Spotted Owls. Data from 11 variable bands suggest a significant relationship between geographic distance among local breeding groups and genetic distance (Mantel r = 0.53, P < 0.02) although multi-dimensional scaling of three significant axes did not identify significant grouping at any hierarchical level. Similarly, neighbor-joining clustering of Manhattan distances indicated geographic structure at all levels and identified Mexican Spotted Owls as a distinct clade. RAPD analyses did not clearly differentiate Northern Spotted Owls from California Spotted Owls. Among Northern Spotted Owls, estimates of population differentiation (F ST ) ranged from 0.27 among breeding areas to 0.11 among regions. Concordantly, within-group agreement values estimated via multi-response permutation procedures of Jaccard's distances ranged from0.22 among local sites to 0.11 among regions. Pairwise comparisons of F ST and geographic distance within regions suggested only the Klamath region was in equilibrium with respect to gene flow and genetic drift. Merging nuclear data with recent mitochondrial data provides support for designation of an Evolutionary Significant Unit for Mexican Spotted Owls and two overlapping Management Units for Northern and California Spotted Owls.

Conservation Genetics↗

USGS2018

Inventory of lowland-breeding birds on the Alaska Peninsula

We conducted the first systematic inventory of birds in the lowlands (areas ≤100 m above sea level) of the Alaska Peninsula during summers of 2004–2007 to determine their breeding distributions and habitat associations in this remote region. Using a stratified random survey design, we allocated sample plots by elevation and land cover with a preference for wetland cover types used by shorebirds, a group of particular interest to land managers. We surveyed birds during 10-min counts at 792 points across 52, 5 km × 5 km sample plots distributed from south of the Naknek River (58.70°N,157.00°W) to north of Port Moller (56.00°N,160.52°W). We detected 95 bird species including 19 species of shorebirds and 34 species (36% of total) considered at the time to be of conservation concern for the land managers in the region. The most numerous shorebirds on point counts were dunlin Calidris alpina, short-billed dowitcher Limnodromus griseus, and Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata. We found the breeding-season endemic marbled godwit Limosa fedoa beringiae at 20 plots within a 3,000-km 2 area from north of Ugashik Bay to just north of Port Heiden and east to the headwaters of the Dog Salmon and Ugashik rivers. The most abundant passerines on point counts were American tree sparrow Spizelloides arborea, Lapland longspur Calcarius lapponicus, and savannah sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis. Sandhill crane Antigone canadensis, glaucous-winged gull Larus glaucescens, and greater scaup Aythya marila were also relatively abundant. We categorized habitat associations for 30 common species and found that lowland herbaceous vegetation supported wetland-focused species including sandhill crane, marbled godwit, short-billed dowitcher, and dunlin; whereas, dwarf shrub-ericaceous vegetation supported tundra-associated species such as willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus, rock sandpiper Calidris ptilocnemis, and American pipit Anthus rubescens . Tall shrub vegetation was important to several species of warblers and sparrows, as well as one species of shorebird (greater yellowlegs Tringa melanoleuca ). We found that point counts augmented with incidental observations provided an almost complete inventory of lowland-breeding species on the study area. These data form a baseline to monitor any future changes in bird distribution and abundance on the Alaska Peninsula.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease. The Wyoming Basin Ecoregion encompasses approximately 133,656 square kilometers (51,604.87 square miles), including portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. The Wyoming Basin has some of the highest quality wildlife habitats remaining in the Intermountain West. The wide variety of habitats includes intermountain basins dominated by sagebrush shrublands interspersed with deciduous and conifer woodlands and montane or subalpine forests at higher elevations. The Wyoming Basin also supports ranching and agricultural operations that are important to the region’s economy and vital to conserving habitats for wildlife. The region also contains abundant energy resources, including large natural gas reserves and areas of high wind-energy potential. Combined with increased residential and industrial development, fast-paced energy development is resulting in notable land-use changes, including habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Wyoming Basin REA, we evaluated the following seven communities as Conservation Elements: streams and rivers, wetlands, riparian forests and shrublands, sagebrush steppe, desert shrublands, foothill shrublands and woodlands, and mountain forests and alpine zones. We evaluated a total of 14 species and species assemblages as Conservation Elements: aspen forests and woodlands, five-needle pine forests and woodlands, juniper woodlands, cutthroat trout, three-species fish assemblage, northern leatherside chub, sauger, spadefoot assemblage, greater sage-grouse, golden eagle, ferruginous hawk, sagebrush-obligate birds, pygmy rabbit, and mule deer. We evaluated Management Questions (Core and Integrated) for each species and community for the Wyoming Basin REA. Core Management Questions address primary management issues, including (1) where is the Conservation Element, and what are its key ecological attributes (characteristics of species and communities that may affect their long-term persistence or viability); (2) what and where are the Change Agents; and (3) how do the Change Agents affect the key ecological attributes? Integrated Management Questions synthesize the Core Management Questions as follows: (1) where are the areas with high landscape-level ecological values; (2) where are the areas with high landscape-level risks; and (3) where are the potential areas for conservation, restoration, and development? The associated maps and key findings for each Management Question are summarized for each Conservation Element in individual chapters. Additional chapters on landscape intactness and an REA synthesis are included.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗

USGS2011

Terrestrial forest management plan for Palmyra Atoll

This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Palmyra Program to refine and expand goals and objectives developed through the Conservation Action Plan process. It is one in a series of adaptive management plans designed to achieve TNC's mission toward the protection and enhancement of native wildlife and habitat. The 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' focuses on ecosystem integrity and specifically identifies and addresses issues related to assessing the status and distribution of resources, as well as the pressures acting upon them, most specifically nonnative and potentially invasive species. The plan, which presents strategies for increasing ecosystem integrity, provides a framework to implement and track the progress of conservation and restoration goals related to terrestrial resources on Palmyra Atoll. The report in its present form is intended to be an overview of what is known about historical and current forest resources; it is not an exhaustive review of all available literature relevant to forest management but an attempt to assemble as much information specific to Palmyra Atoll as possible. Palmyra Atoll is one of the Northern Line Islands in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the Hawai`ian Islands. It consists of many heavily vegetated islets arranged in a horseshoe pattern around four lagoons and surrounded by a coral reef. The terrestrial ecosystem consists of three primary native vegetation types: Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, and grassland. Among these vegetation types, the health and extent of Pisonia grandis forest is of particular concern. Overall, the three vegetation types support 25 native plant species (two of which may be extirpated), 14 species of sea birds, six shore birds, at least one native reptile, at least seven native insects, and six native land crabs. Green and hawksbill turtles forage at Palmyra Atoll, and though rarely documented, beach nesting could be affected by terrestrial management actions. There are various nonnative or invasive species throughout the terrestrial ecosystem. The most notable examples of terrestrial invasive species include coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) and black rats (Rattus rattus). Although it is unclear whether they are nonnative, coconut palms are currently the most dominant plant across Palmyra Atoll. They compete with native plant species for space and resources and are potentially detrimental to sea birds dependent on native vegetation for roosting and nesting habitat. This competition in turn impacts nutrient resource availability, thereby reshaping energy flow in the ecosystem. Black rats are known to prey on ground-nesting sea birds and are likely responsible for the lack of burrowing sea bird reproduction at Palmyra Atoll. In addition, they may be facilitating the invasion of other nonnative species and negatively impacting other native fauna. Although the extent and impacts of these and other nonnative and (or) invasive species are not fully understood, the extent and impacts are clearly a threat to the native species and one of the most urgent threats to the overall ecosystem integrity of Palmyra Atoll. This 'Terrestrial Forest Management Plan for Palmyra Atoll' addresses issues related to invasive species and other problems. Priority goals are established as are associated objectives and strategies. The overarching goal is to perpetuate and where possible restore terrestrial ecosystem integrity through the following techniques: 1. Habitat management: Maintain and enhance habitat to the extent possible to sustain thriving Pisonia grandis forest, coastal strand forest, endemic grassland, self-sustaining populations of sea birds, shore birds, coconut crabs, native lizards, and native insects. 2. Monitoring and assessment: Acquire information on distribution and abundance as needed for conservation of each resour

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of seabirds at sea is important for conservation. During marine conservation planning, logistical constraints preclude seabird surveys covering the complete area of interest and spatial distribution of seabirds is frequently inferred from predictive statistical models. Increasingly complex models are available to relate the distribution and abundance of pelagic seabirds to environmental variables, but a comparison of their usefulness for delineating protected areas for seabirds is lacking. Here we compare the performance of five modelling techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, Random Forest, boosted regression trees, and maximum entropy) to predict the distribution of Balearic Shearwaters ( Puffinus mauretanicus ) along the coast of the western Iberian Peninsula. We used ship transect data from 2004 to 2009 and 13 environmental variables to predict occurrence and density, and evaluated predictive performance of all models using spatially segregated test data. Predicted distribution varied among the different models, although predictive performance varied little. An ensemble prediction that combined results from all five techniques was robust and confirmed the existence of marine important bird areas for Balearic Shearwaters in Portugal and Spain. Our predictions suggested additional areas that would be of high priority for conservation and could be proposed as protected areas. Abundance data were extremely difficult to predict, and none of five modelling techniques provided a reliable prediction of spatial patterns. We advocate the use of ensemble modelling that combines the output of several methods to predict the spatial distribution of seabirds, and use these predictions to target separate surveys assessing the abundance of seabirds in areas of regular use.

Biological Conservation↗