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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

Increasing global CO 2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 , and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 . The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2025

Amitriptyline and nortriptyline induce ocular toxicity in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio)

The global use of antidepressants has steadily increased, raising concern to aquatic ecosystems due to the incomplete removal during wastewater treatment. Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) act on the neuronal system by inhibiting the reuptake of serotonin and norepinephrine. However, despite visual function being heavily dependent on the neuronal system, a knowledge gap remains regarding the ocular toxicity of TCAs. To bridge this knowledge gap, zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) embryos were exposed to sublethal test concentrations of amitriptyline (AMI, 0.3 to 300 μg/L nominal, 2.04 to 234 μg/L measured) and nortriptyline (NOR, 0.03 to 300 μg/L nominal, >0.107 to 20.7 μg/L measured), with the lowest test concentrations being environmentally relevant. Visual function was assessed with the optokinetic response assay, eye structure development was assessed histologically, and gene expression changes were analysed via transcriptomic profiling. Larval zebrafish (120 h post fertilization (hpf)) exposed to 4.99 and 234 μg/L of AMI exhibited a 26 % and 86 % decrease in the number of eye saccades respectively, with zebrafish exposed to 20.7 μg/L of NOR exhibiting a 65 % decrease. Histological analysis indicated a significant increase of the retinal pigment epithelium thickness after exposure to 234 μg/L of AMI and 20.7 μg/L of NOR. Transcriptomic analysis resulted in 1207 and 2742 differentially expressed genes across both AMI and NOR treatment groups respectively, including genes involved in vision, synaptic signaling, and neuronal development. These findings demonstrate that sublethal concentrations of AMI and NOR affect early life stage zebrafish visual development, which may be sensitive endpoint that could be incorporated into ecological risk assessments.

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part C: To↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Multi-species amphibian monitoring across a protected landscape: Critical reflections on 15 years of wetland monitoring in Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks

Widespread amphibian declines were well documented at the end of the 20th century, raising concerns about the need to identify individual and interactive contributors to this global trend. At the same time, there was growing interest in the use of amphibians as ecological indicators. In the United States, wetland and amphibian monitoring programs were launched in some national parks as a necessary first step to evaluating the status and trends of amphibian populations within some of North America’s most protected areas. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, a multi-species amphibian monitoring program was launched by many of the authors in 2006 and continues to this day. This Viewpoint Article serves as a self-evaluation of our journey from conception through implementation of an ongoing, long-term monitoring program. This self-evaluation should provide a framework and guidance for other monitoring programs. We address whether we are fulfilling the program’s main objective of describing status and trends of the four amphibian species, discuss how a one-size-fits-all monitoring approach does not serve all species equally, and describe opportunities to bolster our core work using emerging statistical approaches and thoughtful integration of remote sensing and molecular tools. We also describe how the data generated over the program’s first 15 years have been useful beyond our initial goal of characterizing status and trend. Notably, our integration of climate datasets has allowed us to describe wetland and species-specific amphibian responses to variations in climate drivers. Documenting climate links to amphibian occurrence and their primary habitats has allowed us to identify which species, habitat types, and subregions within this large, protected landscape are most vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Recognizing that tools and threats change over time, it will be important to adapt our original monitoring design to maximize opportunities and use of resulting information. Maintaining engagement by multiple stakeholders and expanding our funding portfolio will also be necessary to sustain our program into the future. Finally, collaboration has become standard for long-term, cross-jurisdictional, landscape-scale monitoring. We argue that collaborative monitoring facilitates resource sharing, leveraging of limited funds, completion of work, and mutual learning. Such collaboration also increases the efficacy of conservation.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Mechanisms of nitrogen deposition effects on temperate forest lichens and trees

We review the mechanisms of deleterious nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on temperate forests, with a particular focus on trees and lichens. Elevated anthropogenic N deposition to forests has varied effects on individual organisms depending on characteristics both of the N inputs (form, timing, amount) and of the organisms (ecology, physiology) involved. Improved mechanistic knowledge of these effects can aid in developing robust predictions of how organisms respond to either increases or decreases in N deposition. Rising N levels affect forests in micro- and macroscopic ways from physiological responses at the cellular, tissue, and organism levels to influencing individual species and entire communities and ecosystems. A synthesis of these processes forms the basis for the overarching themes of this paper, which focuses on N effects at different levels of biological organization in temperate forests. For lichens, the mechanisms of direct effects of N are relatively well known at cellular, organismal, and community levels, though interactions of N with other stressors merit further research. For trees, effects of N deposition are better understood for N as an acidifying agent than as a nutrient; in both cases, the impacts can reflect direct effects on short time scales and indirect effects mediated through long-term soil and belowground changes. There are many gaps on fundamental N use and cycling in ecosystems, and we highlight the most critical gaps for understanding potential deleterious effects of N deposition. For lichens, these gaps include both how N affects specific metabolic pathways and how N is metabolized. For trees, these gaps include understanding the direct effects of N deposition onto forest canopies, the sensitivity of different tree species and mycorrhizal symbionts to N, the influence of soil properties, and the reversibility of N and acidification effects on plants and soils. Continued study of how these N response mechanisms interact with one another, and with other dimensions of global change, remains essential for predicting ongoing changes in lichen and tree populations across North American temperate forests.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Reassessing rainfall in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico: Local and global ecohydrological implications

Mountains receive a greater proportion of precipitation than other environments, and thus make a disproportionate contribution to the world’s water supply. The Luquillo Mountains receive the highest rainfall on the island of Puerto Rico and serve as a critical source of water to surrounding communities. The area’s role as a long-term research site has generated numerous hydrological, ecological, and geological investigations that have been included in regional and global overviews that compare tropical forests to other ecosystems. Most of the forest- and watershed-wide estimates of precipitation (and evapotranspiration, as inferred by a water balance) have assumed that precipitation increases consistently with elevation. However, in this new analysis of all known current and historical rain gages in the region, we find that similar to other mountainous islands in the trade wind latitudes, leeward (western) watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains receive lower mean annual precipitation than windward (eastern) watersheds. Previous studies in the Luquillo Mountains have therefore overestimated precipitation in leeward watersheds by up to 40%. The Icacos watershed, however, despite being located at elevations 200–400 m below the tallest peaks and to the lee of the first major orographic barrier, receives some of the highest precipitation. Such lee-side enhancement has been observed in other island mountains of similar height and width, and may be caused by several mechanisms. Thus, the long-reported discrepancy of unrealistically low rates of evapotranspiration in the Icacos watershed is likely caused by previous underestimation of precipitation, perhaps by as much as 20%. Rainfall/runoff ratios in several previous studies suggested either runoff excess or runoff deficiency in Luquillo watersheds, but this analysis suggests that in fact they are similar to other tropical watersheds. Because the Luquillo Mountains often serve as a wet tropical archetype in global assessments of basic ecohydrological processes, these revised estimates are relevant to regional and global assessments of runoff efficiency, hydrologic effects of reforestation, geomorphic processes, and climate change.

Luquillo Mountains↗
USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey science vision for native freshwater mussel research in the United States

Executive Summary North America is a global center for native freshwater mussel (order Unionida, hereinafter “mussels”) diversity, with more than 350 species. Mussels are among the most imperiled fauna on the planet. Reasons for both local and widespread declines in mussels are mostly unknown, although the threats may include habitat loss and fragmentation, diseases, environmental contaminants, altered flow regimes, migration barriers to larval hosts, non-native species, and climate change. Over the past three decades, research on mussels has been substantial. Nevertheless, current conservation and management efforts are limited by significant information gaps. For example, the effects of emerging stressors on mussels are largely unknown and identifying when habitats are rehabilitated and suitable for reestablishment of mussels remains challenging. Additionally, historical and current information on the distribution, taxonomy, and life histories are often unreliable or lacking altogether, and more reliable information is needed for many species. We identified focal research themes, goals, and objectives where research on mussels is needed based on information gaps identified through conversations with resource partners across local, regional, and national organizations. Research on biodiversity seeks to enhance the diversity of mussel species and populations to support healthy aquatic ecosystems. Research on emerging stressors seeks to improve the understanding of how mussel species, populations, and communities respond to emerging stressors, including environmental contaminants and climate change. Research on conservation seeks to enhance the recovery of species and populations and to identify data gaps limiting the conservation of mussels and their habitats. Mussels are in urgent need of proactive conservation because they are an integral part of our natural heritage, enhance biodiversity, and provide vital ecological services that support freshwater ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been, and continues to be, a leader in mussel research. Although the USGS is well suited to address the broad-scale multidisciplinary research needed to conserve mussels, the USGS has had substantial loss of scientists with mussel expertise over the past 20 years. However, the breadth of the USGS expertise on mussels can be leveraged internally across other USGS mission and program areas and externally across research partners. Given the breadth and scope of the issues facing mussels across the United States, the research themes outlined in this science vision can only be accomplished through extensive collaborations between the USGS and the full spectrum of natural resource partners, including other Federal and State agencies, Tribal organizations, universities, industries, and nongovernmental organizations.

Circular↗
USGS2023

Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS2018

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km 2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Cheatgrass percent cover change: Comparing recent estimates to climate change − Driven predictions in the Northern Great Basin

Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) is a highly invasive species in the Northern Great Basin that helps decrease fire return intervals. Fire fragments the shrub steppe and reduces its capacity to provide forage for livestock and wildlife and habitat critical to sagebrush obligates. Of particular interest is the greater sage grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), an obligate whose populations have declined so severely due, in part, to increases in cheatgrass and fires that it was considered for inclusion as an endangered species. Remote sensing technologies and satellite archives help scientists monitor terrestrial vegetation globally, including cheatgrass in the Northern Great Basin. Along with geospatial analysis and advanced spatial modeling, these data and technologies can identify areas susceptible to increased cheatgrass cover and compare these with greater sage grouse priority areas for conservation (PAC). Future climate models forecast a warmer and wetter climate for the Northern Great Basin, which likely will force changing cheatgrass dynamics. Therefore, we examine potential climate-caused changes to cheatgrass. Our results indicate that future cheatgrass percent cover will remain stable over more than 80% of the study area when compared with recent estimates, and higher overall cheatgrass cover will occur with slightly more spatial variability. The land area projected to increase or decrease in cheatgrass cover equals 18% and 1%, respectively, making an increase in fire disturbances in greater sage grouse habitat likely. Relative susceptibility measures, created by integrating cheatgrass percent cover and temporal standard deviation datasets, show that potential increases in future cheatgrass cover match future projections. This discovery indicates that some greater sage grouse PACs for conservation could be at heightened risk of fire disturbance. Multiple factors will affect future cheatgrass cover including changes in precipitation timing and totals and increases in freeze-thaw cycles. Understanding these effects can help direct land management, guide scientific research, and influence policy.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗
USGS2016

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2025

Impacts of lake elevation decline on spawning habitat of a critical, native forage species

Objective Lake elevation decline is a global phenomenon with pronounced effects in arid regions that changes the characteristics of nearshore habitat area available to lacustrine spawners, potentially impacting recruitment and whole-lake food web dynamics. Our objective was to understand the potential effects of lake elevation decline on spawning habitat for the Tui Chub Siphateles bicolor , a lacustrine spawner and critical component of the native food web in Pyramid Lake, Nevada. Methods We explored the distribution of ripe Tui Chub in nearshore habitat by associating habitat characteristics to ripe Tui Chub CPUE from a custom gill-net configuration, with data analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. We then explored potential spawning habitat availability at all potential lake elevations using an elevation-explicit model of the basin that we developed based on several bathymetric and geospatial data sets and the knowledge of spawner distribution gained in the first component of the study. Results Ripe Tui Chub catch was primarily predicted by temperature, reaching a maximum between 14.2°C and 24.8°C found at less than 15 m of depth in Pyramid Lake throughout the summer spawning period. We estimated that with a contemporary decline in lake elevation of 8 m, Pyramid Lake will host the minimum area of spawning habitat based on morphometry alone at a 40% decrease from a theoretical maximum. Conclusions A decrease in lake elevation or an increase in lake temperatures—both of which are probable events based on future climate scenarios and estimates of water extraction upstream of Pyramid Lake—is likely to further restrict Tui Chub spawning habitat area. Our results have important implications for ecological water demand in Pyramid Lake and provide managers with information facilitating a science-based approach to managing the fish community.

Nevada↗
USGS2015

Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components; utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios; and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. Coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists can benefit from this synthesis of tools and models that have been developed for projecting causes and consequences of sea-level change on the landscape and seascape.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2009

Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2021

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers’ reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus , Great Knot C . tenuirostris and Surfbird C . virgata ). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2013

Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: Lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd

Migration is a striking behavioral strategy by which many animals enhance resource acquisition while reducing predation risk. Historically, the demographic benefits of such movements made migration common, but in many taxa the phenomenon is considered globally threatened. Here we describe a long-term decline in the productivity of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) that migrate through intact wilderness areas to protected summer ranges inside Yellowstone National Park, USA. We attribute this decline to a long-term reduction in the demographic benefits that ungulates typically gain from migration. Among migratory elk, we observed a 21-year, 70% reduction in recruitment and a 4-year, 19% depression in their pregnancy rate largely caused by infrequent reproduction of females that were young or lactating. In contrast, among resident elk, we have recently observed increasing recruitment and a high rate of pregnancy. Landscape-level changes in habitat quality and predation appear to be responsible for the declining productivity of Yellowstone migrants. From 1989 to 2009, migratory elk experienced an increasing rate and shorter duration of green-up coincident with warmer spring–summer temperatures and reduced spring precipitation, also consistent with observations of an unusually severe drought in the region. Migrants are also now exposed to four times as many grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) as resident elk. Both of these restored predators consume migratory elk calves at high rates in the Yellowstone wilderness but are maintained at low densities via lethal management and human disturbance in the year-round habitats of resident elk. Our findings suggest that large-carnivore recovery and drought, operating simultaneously along an elevation gradient, have disproportionately influenced the demography of migratory elk. Many migratory animals travel large geographic distances between their seasonal ranges. Changes in land use and climate that disparately influence such seasonal ranges may alter the ecological basis of migratory behavior, representing an important challenge for, and a powerful lens into, the ecology and conservation of migratory taxa.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Non-native bird populations respond differently to their environment and exhibit shifts in ecological niche limits across continents

Aim The degree to which species' niches remain stable over space and time–the niche conservatism hypothesis–is critical for predicting species' responses to environmental change. Tests of this hypothesis typically focus on changes in niche centroids and boundaries. An outstanding question is whether species' environmental associations differ within the interior of their niche space–that is, across the full range of occupied conditions–in original versus novel geographic space. Location Europe and North America. Time Period 1997–2018. Major Taxa Studied Birds. Methods We used over 400,000 observations collected over 22 years and across 28 countries to explore whether two common songbird species—European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ) and house sparrow ( Passer domesticus ) – exhibit niche conservatism between their native European and non-native North American ranges. We tested for niche conservatism via (1) an ordination approach that quantified change in niche shape and boundaries, and (2) generalised linear mixed effects models to quantify how abundance varied with the interaction between continent and climate or land cover variables. Results The ordination analysis indicated that both European starling and house sparrow exhibited niche conservatism between Europe and North America. However, abundance models revealed continental differences in how the species responded to temperature and land cover. The abundance models also revealed that areas with wetter conditions that were occupied by both species in their native European ranges were available but unoccupied in their non-native North American ranges (i.e., niche unfilling). Main Conclusions Our work demonstrates that species can exhibit apparent consistency in niche boundaries but varied abundance responses to the environment within niche boundaries. Expanding the study of niche conservatism to explore changes both at the edge of and within niche boundaries would improve the ability to assess and predict species' invasion risk or sensitivity to ongoing global change.

Diversity and Distributions↗