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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources

Streamflow, infiltration, and ground-water recharge at Abo Arroyo, New Mexico

Abo Arroyo, an ephemeral tributary to the Rio Grande, rises in the largest upland catchment on the eastern side of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB). The 30-kilometer reach of channel between the mountain front and its confluence with the Rio Grande is incised into basin-fill sediments and separated from the regional water table by an unsaturated zone that reaches 120 meters thick. The MRGB portion of the arroyo is dry except for brief flows generated by runoff from the upland catchment. Though brief, ephemeral flows provide a substantial fraction of ground-water recharge in the southeastern portion of the MRGB. Previous estimates of average annual recharge from Abo Arroyo range from 1.3 to 21 million cubic meters. The current study examined the timing, location, and amount of channel infiltration using streamflow data and environmental tracers during a four-year period (water years 1997–2000). A streamflow-gaging station (“gage”) was installed in a bedrock-controlled reach near the catchment outlet to provide high-frequency data on runoff entering the basin. Streamflow at the gage, an approximate bound on potential tributary recharge to the basin, ranged from 0.8 to 15 million cubic meters per year. Storm-generated runoff produced about 98 percent of the flow in the wettest year and 80 percent of the flow in the driest year. Nearly all flows that enter the MRGB arise from monsoonal storms in July through October. A newly developed streambed temperature method indicated the presence and duration of ephemeral flows downstream of the gage. During the monsoon season, abrupt downward shifts in streambed temperatures and suppressed diurnal ranges provided generally clear indications of flow. Streambed temperatures during winter showed that snowmelt is also effective in generating channel infiltration. Controlled infiltration experiments in dry arroyo sediments indicated that most ephemeral flow is lost to seepage before reaching the Rio Grande. Streambed temperature records confirmed this, providing evidence of only two flows reaching the Rio Grande during a three-year period (water years 1998–2000). Sub-channel chloride concentrations indicate that approximately half of the seepage loss eventually becomes ground-water recharge. Vertical profiles of pore-water chloride in transects adjacent to the channel indicate that basin-floor recharge outside the arroyo is negligible under current climatic conditions.

New Mexico↗

Assessment of the hydraulic connection between ground water and the Peace River, west-central Florida

The hydraulic connection between the Peace River and the underlying aquifers along the length of the Peace River from Bartow to Arcadia was assessed to evaluate flow exchanges between these hydrologic systems. Methods included an evaluation of hydrologic and geologic records and seismic-reflection profiles, seepage investigations, and thermal infrared imagery interpretation. Along the upper Peace River, a progressive long-term decline in streamflow has occurred since 1931 due to a lowering of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by as much as 60 feet because of intensive ground-water withdrawals for phosphate mining and agriculture. Another effect from lowering the potentiometric surface has been the cessation of flow at several springs located near and within the Peace River channel, including Kissengen Spring, that once averaged a flow of about 19 million gallons a day. The lowering of ground-water head resulted in flow reversals at locations where streamflow enters sinkholes along the streambed and floodplain. Hydrogeologic conditions along the Peace River vary from Bartow to Arcadia. Three distinctive hydrogeologic areas along the Peace River were delineated: (1) the upper Peace River near Bartow, where ground-water recharge occurs; (2) the middle Peace River near Bowling Green, where reversals of hydraulic gradients occur; and (3) the lower Peace River near Arcadia, where ground-water discharge occurs. Seismic-reflection data were used to identify geologic features that could serve as potential conduits for surface-water and ground-water exchange. Depending on the hydrologic regime, this exchange could be recharge of surface water into the aquifer system or discharge of ground water into the stream channel. Geologic features that would provide pathways for water movement were identified in the seismic record; they varied from buried irregular surfaces to large-scale subsidence flexures and vertical fractures or enlarged solution conduits. Generally, the upper Peace River is characterized by a shallow, buried irregular top of rock, numerous observed sinkholes, and subsidence depressions. The downward head gradient provides potential for the Peace River to lose water to the ground-water system. Along the middle Peace River area, head gradients alternate between downward and upward, creating both recharging and discharging ground-water conditions. Seismic records show that buried, laterally continuous reflectors in the lower Peace River pinch out in the middle Peace River streambed. Small springs have been observed along the streambed where these units pinch out. This area corresponds to the region where highest ground-water seepage volumes were measured during this study. Further south, along the lower Peace River, upward head gradients provide conditions for ground-water discharge into the Peace River. Generally, confinement between the surficial aquifer and the confined ground-water systems in this area is better than to the north. However, localized avenues for surface-water and ground-water interactions may exist along discontinuities observed in seismic reflectors associated with large-scale flexures or subsidence features. Ground-water seepage gains or losses along the Peace River were quantified by making three seepage runs during periods of: (1) low base flow, (2) high base flow, and (3) high flow. Low and high base-flow seepage runs were performed along a 74-mile length of the Peace River, between Bartow and Nocatee. Maximum losses of 17.3 cubic feet per second (11.2 million gallons per day) were measured along a 3.2-mile reach of the upper Peace River. The high-flow seepage run was conducted to quantify losses in the Peace River channel and floodplain between Bartow and Fort Meade. Seepage losses calculated during high-flow along a 7.2-mile reach of the Peace River, from the Clear Springs Mine bridge to the Mobil Mine bridge, were approximately 10 percent of the river flow, or 118 cubic feet per second. Calculated seepages along the Peace River in Hardee and De Soto Counties were inconclusive, because most seepages were within the range of discharge measurement error. Two continuous aerial thermal infrared imagery surveys were conducted to locate sites of ground-water discharge along the Peace River. Although temperature and hydrologic conditions were ideal to observe spring flow using thermal infrared imaging techniques, no sources of ground-water discharge were identified using this method. Diffuse ground-water seepage may, however, provide significant ground-water discharge.

Florida↗

Stratigraphy, lithologies, and sedimentary structures of Owens Lake core OL-92

Owens Lake, a now-dry lake in southeastern California immediately east of the southern Sierra Nevada, was the site of a coring project designed to obtain a long paleoclimatic record. During the ensuing study, lacustrine deposits were recovered by the 323 m long core designated “OL-92.” The presence of the Bishop ash (ca. 760 ka) and the Matuyama-Brunhes paleomagnetic reversal (ca. 780 ka) near the base of core OL-92 shows that this core represents about 800 k.y. of deposition in Owens Lake. The sediments are dominantly lacustrine clay, silt, and fine sand, although some intervals contain as much as 40 wt % CaCO3. The lowest ~57 m of recovered sediments is mostly silt or clay, but several sand beds are present; the overlying ~60 m of sediment is similar, but its sand content is more dispersed. Together, these two units are composed of ~70 wt % silt and clay and ~30 wt % sand, suggesting deposition in lakes that fluctuated between moderately deep and shallow. Overlying them is ~201 m of sediments that were mostly deposited in deep water; they consist predominantly of silt and clay but include two thin, coarse-sand beds. An oolite bed forms the upper ~4 m of natural deposits, and an anthropogenic salt bed, >2 m thick, forms much of the present surface. In addition to the Bishop ash, several much thinner tephra layers are also present. About 70% of the clastic-sediment units are massive, some clearly because of bioturbation; other units display a thin bedding defined by changes in color or grain size. Rhythmic bedding, observed in numerous segments <1 m thick, seems to represent cyclical events ~100 yr long. Thin color bands caused by the chemical alteration of sediments on each side of hairline fractures create irregular subvertical veins. Clastic dikes, as much as ~2 cm wide and ~75 cm long, characterize some zones. Bioturbation structures, sand pods, ice-rafted(?) granules, small faults, minor discontinuities, and possible turbidity-current structures are also present. Lithologic variations, in combination with other evidence, indicate that from ca. 810–645 ka, Owens was most commonly a moderately deep fresh-water lake; from ca. 645–450 ka, it was more commonly a shallow—but still fresh-water—lake; from ca. 450–5 ka, it was almost continuously a deep, mostly fresh-water lake; and after ca. 5 ka, it was a shallow, moderately saline lake. Other variations in the sediments and their contents, however, indicate additional cycles of average lake-overflow volumes that are not reflected by sediment-size changes.

California↗

The sedimentary framework of the southern basin of Lake George, New York

Information from 240 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles has been analyzed to show the bathymetric and subsurface configuration of southern Lake George in the southeastern corner of the Adirondack Mountains, New York. Three units have been identified and sampled in 13 piston cores as long as 7 m and 4 grab samples; they are glacial drift, glaciolacustrine nonorganic clay, and Holocene lake mud rich in organic material. Three deep bedrock basins controlled glacial, glaciolacustrine, and postglacial deposition within the lake. Glaciolacustrine clay is more than 30 m thick in these basins but is generally absent in water depths less than 20 m. An unconformity separates glaciolacustrine clay from overlying Holocene mud in water depths less than 30 m, but the contact is conformable and transitional in deeper water. The unconformity may have originated from subaqueous or subaerial erosion during a low stage of lake level which probably occurred between 10,000 and 700 yr B.P. Holocene lake mud is thin to absent in the shallower waters separating the three basins, but reaches 15-m thickness near the entrance to The Narrows. A new radiocarbon date of 6950 ?? 60 yr B.P. was obtained from a wood fragment which was found in the Holocene lake mud. We found no clear evidence of postglacial tectonic disturbances of the lake sediments although recent releveling profiles suggest that the Adirondack Mountains are undergoing contemporary uplift.

New York↗

Control of invasive sea lampreys using the piscicides TFM and niclosamide: Toxicology, successes & future prospects

The invasion of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America by sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the early 20th century contributed to the depletion of commercial, recreational and culturally important fish populations, devastating the economies of communities that relied on the fishery. Sea lamprey populations were subsequently controlled using an aggressive integrated pest-management program which employed barriers and traps to prevent sea lamprey from migrating to their spawning grounds and the use of the piscicides (lampricides) 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) and niclosamide to eliminate larval sea lampreys from their nursery streams. Although sea lampreys have not been eradicated from the Great Lakes, populations have been suppressed to less than 10% of their peak numbers in the mid-1900s. The ongoing use of lampricides provides the foundation for sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes, one of the most successful invasive species control programs in the world. Yet, significant gaps remain in our understanding of how lampricides are taken-up and handled by sea lampreys, how lampricides exert their toxic effects, and how they adversely affect non-target invertebrate and vertebrates species. In this review we examine what has been learned about the uptake, handling and elimination, and the mode of TFM and niclosamide toxicity in lampreys and in non-target animals, particularly in the last 10 years. It is now clear that the mode of TFM toxicity is the same in non-target fishes and lampreys, in which TFM interferes with oxidative phosphorylation by the mitochondria leading to decreased ATP production. Vulnerability to TFM is related to abiotic factors such as water pH and alkalinity, which we propose changes the relative amounts of the bioavailable un-ionized form of TFM in the gill microenvironment. Niclosamide, which is also a molluscicide used to control snails in areas prone to schistosomiasis infections of humans, also likely works by uncoupling oxidative phosphorylation, but less is known about other aspects of its toxicology. The effects of TFM include reductions in energy stores, particularly glycogen and high energy phosphagens. However, non-target fishes readily recover from sub-lethal TFM exposure as demonstrated by the rapid restoration of energy stores and clearance of TFM. Although both TFM and niclosamide are non-persistent in the environment and critical for sea lamprey control, increasing public and institutional concerns about pesticides in the environment makes it imperative to explore other means of sea lamprey control. Accordingly, we also address possible “next-generation” strategies of sea lamprey control including genetic tools such as RNA interference and CRISPR-Cas9 to impair critical physiological processes (e.g. reproduction, digestion, metamorphosis) in lamprey, and the use of green chemistry to develop more environmentally benign chemical methods of sea lamprey control.

Great Lakes↗

Rain, winds and haze during the Huygens probe's descent to Titan's surface

The irreversible conversion of methane into higher hydrocarbons in Titan's stratosphere implies a surface or subsurface methane reservoir. Recent measurements from the cameras aboard the Cassini orbiter fail to see a global reservoir, but the methane and smog in Titan's atmosphere impedes the search for hydrocarbons on the surface. Here we report spectra and high-resolution images obtained by the Huygens Probe Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer instrument in Titan's atmosphere. Although these images do not show liquid hydrocarbon pools on the surface, they do reveal the traces of once flowing liquid. Surprisingly like Earth, the brighter highland regions show complex systems draining into flat, dark lowlands. Images taken after landing are of a dry riverbed. The infrared reflectance spectrum measured for the surface is unlike any other in the Solar System; there is a red slope in the optical range that is consistent with an organic material such as tholins, and absorption from water ice is seen. However, a blue slope in the near-infrared suggests another, unknown constituent. The number density of haze particles increases by a factor of just a few from an altitude of 150 km to the surface, with no clear space below the tropopause. The methane relative humidity near the surface is 50 per cent.

Nature↗

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Requirement of rainbow trout for dietary phosphorus and its relationship to the amount discharged hatchery effluents

Fingerling rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with initial mean weights of 9 g (small fish) and 35 g (large fish) were fed diets adequate in all known nutrients except phosphorus (P). In two experiments, triplicate lots of rainbow trout were fed basal diets containing either 0.14 or 0.41% non‐phytin P, with or without graded levels of supplemental P. Deficiency of P reduced growth, feed efficiency (weight gained/weight fed), bone ash, and whole‐body ash contents. The requirement for non‐phytin P by small trout for maximum growth and feed efficiency was not more than 0.41% of diet: The requirement by large trout was between 0.34 and 0.54% of diet. The requirement of non‐phytin P for maximum bone ash development was about 0.51% of diet for small trout and more than 0.54% for large trout. Whole‐body phosphorus content of small trout suggested a requirement above 0.51% but not more than 0.61% non‐phytin phosphorus. Although an effect of size of trout on the requirement was not clearly demonstrated, these results show that trout required more dietary P for bone mineralization than for weight gain. The minimum dietary requirement for non‐phytin P for bone mineralization was probably between 0.54 and 0.61% of diet. Discharges of P into effluent water increased significantly as trout were fed increasing levels of P. When trout were fed 0.61% available P, approximately 67% of P consumed was retained, and discharges of soluble P in effluents were 2.0 g P/kg weight gain or 1.8 g P/kg feed fed.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Guidance of yearling shortnose and pallid sturgeon using vertical bar rack and louver arrays

Some populations of shortnose sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum and pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus have been divided by hydroelectric dams, and migration downstream past the dams likely continues. No protection for downstream migrants is presently available, and the behavior of sturgeon to guidance structures has not been studied. We conducted experiments in a 5.4-m-long × 1.5-m-wide flume with a water depth of 37 cm to determine the guidance efficiency and behavior of yearling shortnose and pallid sturgeon to two guidance structures, a bar rack and a louver array. We tested one vertical bar rack configuration with slats spaced 3.9 cm apart (clear spacing). The bar rack slats were oriented directly into the approach flow, and the row of slats was oriented at a 45° angle to the flow. We tested two louver array configurations, one with slats spaced 3.9 cm apart and one with slats spaced 9.0 cm apart (clear spacing). Louver slats were oriented at a 90° angle to the flow, and the row of slats was oriented at a 20° angle to the approach flow. Mean approach velocity to both structures was 31–34 cm/s. Eighteen shortnose sturgeon tagged with passive integrated transponders were tested once in each configuration; 24–38 pallid sturgeon were tested in each configuration. Shortnose sturgeon showed some behavioral differences due to experience with the bar rack, but experience did not affect the percent guided. Both sturgeon species were guided efficiently by the louver array (96–100%) but less efficiently by the bar rack (58–80%). Shortnose sturgeon were more likely to contact the bar rack at night than during the day ( P = 0.01) and at night were more likely to contact the bar rack than the louver array ( P = 0.006). Bar racks guided fewer individuals at night than during the day. For pallid sturgeon, the percentages guided by day and night were 80 and 58, respectively; for shortnose sturgeon, the percentages were 80 and 67. Both species used vision to avoid structures because both increased contact with structures at night. Shortnose sturgeon were superior to pallid sturgeon at swimming off the bottom and avoiding structures.

Massachusetts↗

Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

As a vector by which foreign species invade coastal and freshwater waterbodies, ballast water discharge from ships is recognized as a major environmental threat. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) drafted an international treaty establishing ballast water discharge standards based on the number of viable organisms per volume of ballast discharge for different organism size classes. Concerns that the IMO standards are not sufficiently protective have initiated several state and national efforts in the United States to develop more stringent standards. We evaluated seven approaches to establishing discharge standards for the >50-μm size class: (1) expert opinion/management consensus, (2) zero detectable living organisms, (3) natural invasion rates, (4) reaction–diffusion models, (5) population viability analysis (PVA) models, (6) per capita invasion probabilities (PCIP), and (7) experimental studies. Because of the difficulty in synthesizing scientific knowledge in an unbiased and transparent fashion, we recommend the use of quantitative models instead of expert opinion. The actual organism concentration associated with a “zero detectable organisms” standard is defined by the statistical rigor of its monitoring program; thus it is not clear whether such a standard is as stringent as other standards. For several reasons, the natural invasion rate, reaction–diffusion, and experimental approaches are not considered suitable for generating discharge standards. PVA models can be used to predict the likelihood of establishment of introduced species but are limited by a lack of population vital rates for species characteristic of ballast water discharges. Until such rates become available, PVA models are better suited to evaluate relative efficiency of proposed standards rather than predicting probabilities of invasion. The PCIP approach, which is based on historical invasion rates at a regional scale, appears to circumvent many of the indicated problems, although it may underestimate invasions by asexual and parthenogenic species. Further research is needed to better define propagule dose–responses, densities at which Allee effects occur, approaches to predicting the likelihood of invasion from multi-species introductions, and generation of formal comparisons of approaches using standardized scenarios.

Ecological Applications↗

Topographic map of Mars M 25M RKN

NOTES ON BASE This map is based on data from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) (Smith and others, 2001), an instrument on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft (Albee and others, 2001). The image used for the base of this map represents more than 600 million measurements gathered between 1999 and 2001, adjusted for consistency (Neumann and others, 2001, 2002) and converted to planetary radii. These have been converted to elevations above the areoid as determined from a martian gravity field solution GMM2 (Lemoine and others, 2001), truncated to degree and order 50, and oriented according to current standards (see below). The average accuracy of each point is originally ~100 meters in horizontal position, and ~1 meter in radius (Neumann, 2001). However, the total elevation uncertainty is at least +3 m due to the global error in the areoid (+1.8 meters according to Lemoine and others, 2001) and regional uncertainties in its shape (communication from Neumann, 2002). The measurements were converted into a digital elevation model (DEM) (communication from Neumann, 2002; Neumann and others, 2001; Smith and others, 2001) using Generic Mapping Tools software (Wessel and Smith, 1998), with a resolution of 0.015625 degrees per pixel or 64 pixels per degree. In projection, the pixels are 926.17 meters in size at the equator. PROJECTION The Mercator projection is used between latitudes +57°, with a central meridian at 0° and latitude equal to the nominal scale at 0°. The Polar Stereographic projection is used for the polar regions north of the +55° parallel and south of the –55° parallel with a central meridian set for both at 0°. The adopted equatorial radius is 3,396.19 km (Duxbury and others 2002; Seidelmann and others 2002). COORDINATE SYSTEM The MOLA data were initially referenced to an internally consistent inertial coordinate system, derived from tracking of the MGS spacecraft. By adopting appropriate values for the orientation of Mars as defined by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) (Seidelmann and others, 2002), these inertial coordinates were converted into the planet-fixed coordinates (longitude and latitude) used on this map. These values include the orientation of the north pole of Mars (including the effects of precession), the rotation rate of Mars, and a value for W0 of 176.630°, where W0 is the angle along the equator to the east, between the 0° meridian and the equator's intersection with the celestial equator at the standard epoch J2000.0 (Seidelmann and others, 2002). This value of W0 was chosen (Duxbury and others, 2002) in order to place the 0° meridian through the center of the small (~500 m) crater Airy-0, located in the crater Airy (de Vaucouleurs and others, 1973; Seidelmann and others, 2002). Longitude increases to the east, and latitude is planetocentric as allowed by IAU/IAG standards (Seidelmann and others, 2002) and in accordance with current NASA and USGS standards (Duxbury and others, 2002). A secondary grid (printed in red) has been added to the map as a reference to the west longitude/planetographic latitude system that is also allowed by IAU/IAG standards (Seidelmann and others, 2002) and has also been used for Mars. The figure adopted to compute this secondary grid is an oblate spheroid with an equatorial radius of 3,396.19 km and a polar radius of 3,376.2 km (Duxbury and others, 2002; Seidelmann and others, 2002). MAPPING TECHNIQUES To create the topographic base image, the original DEM produced by the MOLA team in Simple Cylindrical projection with a resolution of 64 pixels per degree was projected into the Mercator and Polar Stereographic pieces. A shaded relief was generated from each DEM with a sun angle of 30° from horizontal and a sun azimuth of 270°, as measured clockwise from north, and a vertical exaggeration of 100%. Illumination is from the west, which follows a long-standing USGS tradition for planetary maps. This allows for continuity in the shading between maps and quadrangles, and most closely resembles lighting conditions found on imagery. The DEM values were then mapped to a smooth global color look-up table. Note that the chosen color scheme simply represents elevation changes and is not intended to imply anything about surface characteristics (e.g., past or current presence of water or ice). These two files were then merged and scaled to 1:25 million for the Mercator portion and 1:15,196,708 for the two Polar Stereographic portions, with a resolution of 300 dots per inch. The projections have a common scale of 1:13,923,113 at +56° latitude. NOMENCLATURE Names on this sheet are approved by the IAU and have been applied for features clearly visible at the scale of this map. For a complete list of the IAU-approved nomenclature for Mars, see the Gazetteer of Planetary Nomenclature at http://planetarynames.wr.usgs.gov/. Font color was chosen for readability. Names followed by an asterisk are provisionally approved. *M 25M RKN: Abbreviation for Mars, 1:25,000,000 series, shaded relief (R), with color (K) and nomenclature (N) (Greeley and Batson, 1990)

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of groundwater withdrawal scenarios for the Redwall-Muav and Coconino Aquifer Systems of northern and central Arizona

The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater Flow Model was used to estimate the hydrologic changes, including water-level change and groundwater discharge to streams and springs, that may result from future changes in groundwater withdrawals in and near the Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Council study area, Coconino and Navajo Counties, Arizona. Three future groundwater withdrawal scenarios for tribal and nontribal uses were developed by the Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Council and were simulated for the period representing the years from 2006 through 2105. Scenario 1 assumes no major changes in groundwater use except for increased demand based on population projections. Scenario 2 assumes that a pipeline will provide a source of surface water from Lake Powell to areas near Cameron and Moenkopi that would replace local groundwater withdrawals. Scenario 3 assumes that the pipeline extends to the Flagstaff and Williams areas, and would replace groundwater demands for water in the area. The Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Council withdrawal scenarios primarily influence water levels and groundwater discharge in the Coconino Plateau basin, near the western margin of the Little Colorado River Plateau basin, and the Verde Valley subbasin. Simulated effects of the withdrawal scenarios are superimposed on effects of previous variations in groundwater withdrawals and artificial and incidental recharge. Pre-scenario variations include changes in water-levels in wells; groundwater storage; discharge to streams and springs; and evapotranspiration by plants that use groundwater. Future variations in groundwater discharge and water-levels in wells will continue to occur as a result of both the past and any future changes. Water-level variations resulting from post-2005 stresses, including groundwater withdrawals and incidental and artificial recharge, in the area of the withdrawal scenarios are primarily localized and superimposed on the regional changes caused by variations in stresses that occurred since the beginning of the initial stresses in the early 1900s through 2005. Withdrawal scenario 1 produced a broad region on the Coconino Plateau where water-levels declined 3–5 feet by 2105, and local areas with water-level declines of 100 feet or more where groundwater withdrawals are concentrated, near the City of Flagstaff Woody Mountain and Lake Mary well fields, and the towns of Tusayan, Williams, and Moenkopi. Water-level rises of 100 feet or more were simulated at areas of incidental recharge near wastewater treatment facilities near Flagstaff, Tusayan, Grand Canyon South Rim, Williams, and Munds Park. Simulated water-level change from 2006 through 2105 for scenarios 2 and 3 is mostly different from water-level change simulated for scenario 1 at the local level. For scenarios 2 and 3, water levels near Cameron in 2105 where 1–3 feet higher than simulated for scenario 1. Water levels at Moenkopi are more than 100 feet higher due to the elimination of a proposed withdrawal well that was simulated in scenario 1. Scenario 3 eliminates more groundwater withdrawals in the Flagstaff and Williams areas, simulates 1–3 feet less water-level decline than scenario 1 across much of the Coconino Plateau, and water levels that are as much as 50 feet higher than simulated by scenario 1 near withdrawal wells in the Williams and Flagstaff areas. Scenario 1 simulated the most change in groundwater discharge for the Little Colorado River below Cameron and for Oak Creek above Page Springs where declines in discharge of about 1.3 and 0.9 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), respectively, were simulated. Other simulated changes in discharge through 2105 in scenario 1 are losses of less than 0.4 ft 3 /s at the Upper Verde River, losses of less than 0.3 ft 3 /s at Havasu Creek and at Colorado River below Havasu Creek, losses of less than 0.1 ft 3 /s at Clear Creek, and increases in flow at the south rim springs and Chevelon Creek of less than 0.1 and 0.3 ft 3 /s, respectively. Simulated changes in discharge for scenarios 2 and 3 are less than for scenario 1 because of lower rates of groundwater withdrawal. Scenario 3 resulted in greater groundwater discharge than scenarios 1 and 2 at all major groundwater discharge features from 2006 through 2105 except for Clear and Chevelon Creeks, where the same groundwater discharge was simulated by each of the three scenarios. Changes in groundwater discharge are expected to occur after 2105 to all major surface features that discharge from the Redwall-Muav and Coconino aquifers because change in aquifer storage was occurring at the end of the simulation in 2105. The accuracy of simulated changes resulting from the Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Council groundwater withdrawal scenarios is dependent on the persistence of several hydrologic assumptions that are inherent in the Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater Flow Model including, but not limited to, the reasonably accurate simulation of (1) transmissivity distributions, (2) distributions of vertical hydraulic properties, (3) distributions of spatial rates of withdrawal and incidental recharge, (4) aquifer extents, and (5) hydrologic barriers and conduits.

Arizona↗

Evapotranspiration and microclimate at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in northwestern Illinois

From July 1982 through June 1984, a study was made of the evapotranspiration and microclimate at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois. Vegetation at the site consists of mixed pasture grasses, primarily awnless brome (Bromus inermis) and red clover (Trifoleum pratense). Three methods were used to estimate evapotranspiration: (1) an energy budget with the Bowen ratio, (2) an aerodynamic profile, and (3) a soil-based water budget. For the aerodynamic-profile method, sensible-heat flux was estimated by a profile equation and evapotranspiration was then calculated as the residual in the energy-balance equation. Estimates by the energy-budget and aerodynamic-profile methods were computed from hourly data and then summed by days and months. Yearly estimates (for March through November) by these methods were in close agreement: 648 and 626 millimeters, respectively. Daily estimates reach a maximum of about 6 millimeters. The water-budget method produced only monthly estimates based on weekly or biweekly soil-moisture content measurements. The yearly evapotranspiration estimated by this method (which actually included only the months of April through October) was 655 millimeters. The March-through-November average for the three methods of 657 millimeters was equivalent to 70 percent of total precipitation. Continuous measurements were made of incoming and reflected shortwave radiation, incoming and emitted longwave radiation, net radiation, soil-heat flux, soil temperature, horizontal windspeed, and wet- and dry-bulb air temperature. Windspeed and air temperature were measured at heights of 0.5 and 2.0 meters (and also at 1.0 meter after September 1983). Soilmoisture content of the soil zone was measured with a gamma-attenuation gage. Annual precipitation (938 millimeters) and average temperature (10.8 degrees Celsius) at the Sheffield site were virtually identical to long-term averages from nearby National Weather Service stations. Solar radiation averaged 65 percent of that normally expected under clear skies. Net radiation averaged 70.1 watts per square meter and was highest in July and negative during some winter months. Wind direction varied but was predominately south-southeasterly. Wind speed at the 2-meter height averaged 3.5 meters per second and was slightly higher in winter months than the rest of the year. The amount of water stored within the soil zone was greatest in early spring and least in late summer. Seasonal and diurnal trends of evapotranspiration rates mirrored those of net radiation; July was usually the month with the highest evapotranspiration rate. The ratio of sensible- to latentheat fluxes (commonly called the Bowen ratio) for the 2-year study period was 0.38, as averaged from the three methods. Monthly Bowen ratios fluctuated somewhat but averaged about 0.35 for late spring through summer. In fall, the ratio declined to zero or to slightly negative values. When the ratio was negative, the latent-heat flux was slightly greater than the net radiation because of additional energy supplied by' the cooling soil and air. Evapotranspiration calculated by the three methods averaged 75 percent of potential evapotranspiration, as estimated by the Penman equation. There was no apparent seasonal trend in the relation between actual and potential evapotranspiration rates.

Water Supply Paper↗

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a 1-2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.

Coral Reefs↗

Understanding and finding solutions to the problem of sedimentation in the National Wildlife Refuge System

The National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) is a collection of public lands maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for migratory birds and other wildlife. Wetlands on individual National Wildlife Refuges (Refuges) may be at risk of increased sedimentation because of land use and water management practices. Increased sedimentation can reduce wetland habitat quality by altering hydrologic function, degrading water quality, and inhibiting growth of vegetation and invertebrates. On Refuges negatively affected by increased sedimentation, managers have to address complex questions about how to best remediate and mitigate the negative effects. The best way to account for these complexities is often not clear. On other Refuges, managers may not know whether sedimentation is a problem. Decision makers in the Refuge System may need to allocate resources to studying which Refuges could be at risk. Such analyses would help them understand where to direct support for managing increased sedimentation. In this paper, we summarize a case study demonstrating the use of decision-analytic tools in the development of a sedimentation management plan for Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge, Minnesota. Using what we learned from that process, we surveyed other Refuges in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 3 (an area encompassing the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin) and Region 6 (an area encompassing the states of Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) about whether they experience sediment-related impacts to management. Our results show that cases of management being negatively affected by increased sedimentation are not isolated. We suggest that the Refuge System conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment of increased sedimentation among Refuges to understand the importance of sedimentation in context with other management problems that Refuges face. The results of such an assessment could guide how the Refuge System allocates resources to studying and managing widespread stressors.

Minnesota↗

Metamorphic assemblages and the direction of flow of metamorphic fluids in four instances of serpentinization

Fluids related to Serpentinization are of at least three types. The first reported (Barnes and O'Neil, 1969) is a fluid of local meteoric origin, the chemical and thermodynamic properties of which are entirely controlled by olivine, orthopyroxene, brucite, and serpentine reactions. It is a Ca +2 -OH −1 type and is shown experimentally to be capable of reacting with albite to yield calcium hydroxy silicates. Rodingites may form where the Ca +2 -OH −1 type waters flow across the ultramafic contact and react with siliceous country rock. The second type of fluid has its chemical composition largely controlled before it enters the ultramafic rocks, but reactions within the ultramafic rocks fix the thermodynamic properties by reactions of orthopyroxene, olivine, calcite, brucite, and serpentine. The precipitation of brucite from this fluid clearly shows that fluid flow allows reaction products to be deposited at a distance from the point of solution. Thus, textural evidence for volume relations during Serpentinization may not be valid. The third type of fluid has its chemical properties fixed in part before the reactions with ultramafic rocks, in part by the reactions of orthopyroxene, olivine, and serpentine and in part by reactions with siliceous country rock at the contact. The reactions of the ultramafic rock and country rock with the fluid must be contemporaneous and require flow to be along the contact. This third type of fluid is grossly supersaturated with talc and tremolite, both found along the contact. The occurrence of magadiite, kenyaite, mountainite, and rhodesite along the contact is probably due to a late stage low-temperature reaction of fluids of the same thermodynamic properties as those that formed the talc and tremolite at higher temperatures. Oxygen isotope analyses of some of these minerals supports this conclusion. Rodingites form from Ca +2 -rich fluids flowing across the contact; talc and tremolite form from silica-rich fluids flowing along the contact. Isotopic analyses of the fluids indicate varied origins including unaltered local meteoric water and connate water. Complexion Spring water may be a sample of only slightly altered Jurassic or Cretaceous sea water.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

Effects of El Nino on streamflow, lake level, and landslide potential

One of the most important sources of year-to-year climate variation in the Southwest is the El Niño phenomenon of the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a natural but largely unpredictable condition that results from complex interplay among clouds and storms, regional winds, oceanic temperatures, and ocean currents along the equatorial Pacific. Under "normal" conditions, the tropical trade winds blow from east to west, Figure 1. Schematic diagram of normal and El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From NOAA El Niño website. ponding up warm water in the western Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, the trade winds pull up cold, deep, nutrient-rich waters along the equator from the Ecuadorian coast to the central Pacific. The warmth of the western Pacific results in a particularly vigorous hydrologic cycle there with towering cumulus clouds and tropical storms that "radiate" atmospheric waves and disturbances across vast regions of the globe. Heat and moisture lofted into the upper atmosphere by the clouds and storms are distributed by high-altitude winds across vast regions of the globe. During an El Niño, this situation is disrupted and the trade winds weaken, thus reducing the upwelling of cool waters in the eastern Pacific and allowing the pool of warm water in the west to drift eastward toward South America. As the central and eastern Pacific warms, atmospheric pressure gradients along the equator weaken, and the trade winds diminish even more. These changes in sea-level pressure of the atmosphere are characteristic of the strongest El Niño and were identified as the "Southern Oscillation" of the global atmosphere by Sir Gilbert Walker in the early decades of this century. A chicken-and-egg relation exists between the changes in ocean temperatures and changes in winds (and atmospheric pressure gradients); the two sets of changes reinforce and drive each other but neither is clearly or universally "the" initiator of El Niño. Ocean temperatures and surface winds interact to form the complex process, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interactions can be set off by subtle changes in one or the other, by buffeting from other parts of the tropics, or from regions beyond the tropics. Such a complex interplay and its uncertain (and variable) origins are the primary limitations on our ability to predict El Niño. As the waters of the central and eastern Pacific warm, the powerful tropical Pacific storms begin to form farther east than usual (Fig. 1). As the distribution of storms spreads east along the equator, their influence on global weather systems also changes. Most notably, for our purposes, the jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean is invigorated and pulled farther south than normal, where it collects moisture and storms and carries them to the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. During an El Niño, the trade winds are too weak to cause upwelling of nutrient-rich waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Generations of South American fisherman thus have recognized these conditions by the disappearance of their standard catch, commonly during December and January, every three to seven years. Because of the near coincidence in timing between these conditions and Christmas, the fishing communities have called the phenomenon "El Niño", for the Christ child. The geologic record suggests that El Niño conditions have been a part of earth's climate for at least several thousand years. An El Niño event usually lasts for several seasons, and, along with its other effects, represents an interruption of the "normal" seasonal cycle of the tropical climate. After a few seasons, and usually during spring time (in the Northern Hemisphere), the seasonal cycle reasserts itself and the tropical ocean cools back to the normal east-to-west sea-surface temperature gradients. Sometimes the warm El Niño events give way to unusually cold sea-surface temperatures and unusually strong trade winds, a condition now called La Niña. On other occasions, La Niñas may begin on their own, without an immediately preceding El Niño. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña on global climate are, in part, mirror images of each other. For example, drought is a common occurrence in the southwestern United States during La Niña, in contrast to the wet years associated with El Niño.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, U↗

Evaluating the sensitivity of multi-dimensional model predictions of salmon habitat to the source of remotely sensed river bathymetry

Multi-dimensional numerical models are fundamental tools for investigating biophysical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Remote sensing techniques increase the feasibility of applying such models at riverscape scales, but tests of model performance on large rivers have been limited. We evaluated the potential to develop two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models for a 1.6-km reach of a large gravel-bed river using three sources of remotely sensed river bathymetry. We estimated depth from hyperspectral image data acquired from conventional and uncrewed aircraft and multispectral satellite imagery. Our results indicated that modeled water depth errors were similar between 2D and 3D models, with depth residuals that were comparable to the uncertainty associated with the bathymetry used as input. We found good agreement between measured and modeled depth-averaged velocities generated by 2D and 3D models, while 3D models provided superior predictions of near-bed velocities. We found that optimal model performance occurred for lower flow resistance values than previously reported in the literature, possibly as a consequence of the high-resolution bathymetry used as model input. Model predictions of winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) spawning and rearing habitat were not sensitive to the source of bathymetric information, but bioenergetic predictions related to adult holding costs were influenced by the input bathymetry. Our results suggest that hyperspectral imagery acquired from piloted and/or uncrewed aircraft can be used to map the bathymetry of clear-flowing, relatively shallow large rivers with sufficient accuracy to support multi-dimensional flow model development; models developed from multispectral satellite imagery had more limited predictive capability.

California↗