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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Microbial community assembly and metabolic function during mammalian corpse decomposition

Vertebrate corpse decomposition provides an important stage in nutrient cycling in most terrestrial habitats, yet microbially mediated processes are poorly understood. Here we combine deep microbial community characterization, community-level metabolic reconstruction, and soil biogeochemical assessment to understand the principles governing microbial community assembly during decomposition of mouse and human corpses on different soil substrates. We find a suite of bacterial and fungal groups that contribute to nitrogen cycling and a reproducible network of decomposers that emerge on predictable time scales. Our results show that this decomposer community is derived primarily from bulk soil, but key decomposers are ubiquitous in low abundance. Soil type was not a dominant factor driving community development, and the process of decomposition is sufficiently reproducible to offer new opportunities for forensic investigations.

Science↗

USGS2018

Characterization and evaluation of controls on post-fire streamflow response across western U.S. watersheds

This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified hydroclimatic regions in the western United States, and evaluating the impact of climate and geophysical variables on response. Eighty-two watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. Percent change in annual runoff ratio, low flows, high flows, peak flows, number of zero flow days, baseflow index, and Richards–Baker flashiness index were calculated for each watershed using pre- and post-fire periods. Independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, vegetation, climate, burn severity, percent area burned, and soils data. Results show that low flows, high flows, and peak flows increase in the first 2 years following a wildfire and decrease over time. Relative response was used to scale response variables with the respective percent area of watershed burned in order to compare regional differences in watershed response. To account for variability in precipitation events, runoff ratio was used to compare runoff directly to PRISM precipitation estimates. To account for regional differences in climate patterns, watersheds were divided into nine regions, or clusters, through k-means clustering using climate data, and regression models were produced for watersheds grouped by total area burned. Watersheds in Cluster 9 (eastern California, western Nevada, Oregon) demonstrate a small negative response to observed flow regimes after fire. Cluster 8 watersheds (coastal California) display the greatest flow responses, typically within the first year following wildfire. Most other watersheds show a positive mean relative response. In addition, simple regression models show low correlation between percent watershed burned and streamflow response, implying that other watershed factors strongly influence response. Spearman correlation identified NDVI, aridity index, percent of a watershed's precipitation that falls as rain, and slope as being positively correlated with post-fire streamflow response. This metric also suggested a negative correlation between response and the soil erodibility factor, watershed area, and percent low burn severity. Regression models identified only moderate burn severity and watershed area as being consistently positively/negatively correlated, respectively, with response. The random forest model identified only slope and percent area burned as significant watershed parameters controlling response. Results will help inform post-fire runoff management decisions by helping to identify expected changes to flow regimes, as well as facilitate parameterization for model application in burned watersheds.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2018

The geochemistry of loess: Asian and North American deposits compared

Loess is widely distributed over Asia and North America and constitutes one of the most important surficial deposits that serve as terrestrial records of the Quaternary. The oldest Pleistocene loess in China is likely ∼2.6 Ma, thus spanning much or all of the Pleistocene. In North America, most loess is no older than the penultimate glacial period, with the exception of Alaska, where the record may go back to ∼3.0 Ma. On both continents, loess deposits date primarily to glacial periods, and interglacial or interstadial periods are represented by paleosols. Both glacial and non-glacial sources of silts that comprise the bulk of loess deposits are found on both continents. Although loess has been considered to be representative of the average upper continental crust, there are regionally distinctive compositions of loess in both Asia and North America. Loess deposits in Asia from Yakutia, Tajikistan, and China have compositionally distinct major element compositions, due to varying abundances of silicate minerals, carbonate minerals, and clay minerals. In North America, loess in the Mississippi River valley, the Great Plains, and Alaska are also distinguishable with regard to major element composition that reflects highly diverse source sediments. Trace element geochemistry (Sc-Th-Zr and the rare earth elements) also shows regional diversity of loess bodies, in both Asia and North America. On both continents, most loess bodies show significant contributions from later-cycle, altered sedimentary rocks, as opposed to direct derivation from igneous rocks. Further, some loess bodies have detectable contributions from mafic igneous rocks as well as major contributions from average, upper-crustal, felsic rocks. Intercalated paleosols in loess sections show geochemical compositions that differ significantly from the underlying loess parent materials. Ratios of soluble-to-insoluble elements show depletions in paleosols due to chemical weathering losses of calcite, dolomite, plagioclase, mica, apatite, and smectite. In Asia and North America, the last interglacial paleosol is more weathered than equivalent modern soils, which could be due either to a climate that was warmer and more humid, a longer period of pedogenesis, or both. In Asia, early Pleistocene loess and paleosols are both more weathered than those from the middle and late Pleistocene, forming prior to a mid-Pleistocene aridification of Asia from uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding the geochemistry of loess and paleosols can tell us much about past atmospheric circulation, past temperature and moisture regimes, and even tectonic processes.

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences↗

USGS2009

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO 3 − -N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman ρ = 0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r = 0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction ( r 2 = 0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Environmental risks and challenges associated with neonicotinoid insecticides

Neonicotinoid use has increased rapidly in recent years, with a global shift towards insecticide applications as seed coatings rather than aerial spraying. While the use of seed coatings can lessen the amount of overspray and drift, the near universal and prophylactic use of neonicotinoid seed coatings on major agricultural crops has led to widespread detections in the environment (pollen, soil, water, honey). Pollinators and aquatic insects appear to be especially susceptible to the effects of neonicotinoids with current research suggesting that chronic sub-lethal effects are more prevalent than acute toxicity. Meanwhile, evidence of clear and consistent yield benefits from the use of neonicotinoids remains elusive for most crops. Future decisions on neonicotinoid use will benefit from weighing crop yield benefits versus environmental impacts to non-target organisms and considering whether there are more environmentally benign alternatives.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2008

Surface albedo observations at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, Mars

During the Mars Exploration Rover mission, the Pancam instrument has periodically acquired large-scale panoramic images with its broadband (739??338 nm) filter in order to estimate the Lambert bolometric albedo of the surface along each rover's traverse. In this work we present the full suite of such estimated albedo values measured to date by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers along their traverses in Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum, respectively. We include estimated bolometric albedo values of individual surface features (e.g., outcrops, dusty plains, aeolian bed forms, wheel tracks, light-toned soils, and crater walls) as well as overall surface averages of the 43 total panoramic albedo data sets acquired to date. We also present comparisons to estimated Lambert albedo values taken from the Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) along the rovers' traverses, and to the large-scale bolometric albedos of the sites from the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) and Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). The ranges of Pancam-derived albedos at Gusev Crater (0.14 to 0.25) and in Meridiani Planum. (0.10 to 0.18) are in good agreement with IRTM, TES, and MOC orbital measurements. These data sets will be a useful tool and benchmark for future investigations of albodo variations with time, including measurements from orbital instruments like the Context Camera and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Long-term, accurate albedo measurements could also be important for future efforts in climate modeling as well as for studies of active surface processes. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2004

Habitat disturbance and the diversity and abundance of ants (Formicidae) in the Southeastern Fall-Line Sandhills

We examined habitat disturbance, species richness, equitability, and abundance of ants in the Fall-Line Sandhills, at Fort Benning, Georgia. We collected ants with pitfall traps, sweep nets, and by searching tree trunks. Disturbed areas were used for military training; tracked and wheeled vehicles damaged vegetation and soils. Highly disturbed sites had fewer trees, diminished ground cover, warmer soils in the summer, and more compacted soils with a shallower A-horizon. We collected 48 species of ants, in 23 genera (141,468 individuals), over four years of sampling. Highly disturbed areas had fewer species, and greater numbers of ants than did moderately or lightly disturbed areas. The ant communities in disturbed areas were also less equitable, and were dominated by Dorymyrmex smithi .

Georgia↗

USGS2016

The water content of recurring slope lineae on Mars

Observations of recurring slope lineae (RSL) from the High-Resolution Imaging Science Experiment have been interpreted as present-day, seasonally variable liquid water flows; however, orbital spectroscopy has not confirmed the presence of liquid H 2 O, only hydrated salts. Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) temperature data and a numerical heat transfer model definitively constrain the amount of water associated with RSL. Surface temperature differences between RSL-bearing and dry RSL-free terrains are consistent with no water associated with RSL and, based on measurement uncertainties, limit the water content of RSL to at most 0.5–3 wt %. In addition, distinct high thermal inertia regolith signatures expected with crust-forming evaporitic salt deposits from cyclical briny water flows are not observed, indicating low water salinity (if any) and/or low enough volumes to prevent their formation. Alternatively, observed salts may be preexisting in soils at low abundances (i.e., near or below detection limits) and largely immobile. These RSL-rich surfaces experience ~100 K diurnal temperature oscillations, possible freeze/thaw cycles and/or complete evaporation on time scales that challenge their habitability potential. The unique surface temperature measurements provided by THEMIS are consistent with a dry RSL hypothesis or at least significantly limit the water content of Martian RSL.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2009

A Mid-Late Quaternary loess-paleosol record in Simmons Farm in southern Illinois, USA

In unglaciated areas of the Mississippi Valley region, the typical full loess-paleosol succession contains the Modern Soil developed in Peoria Silt, weakly developed Farmdale Geosol developed in Roxana Silt, Sangamon Geosol developed in Loveland Silt, and Yarmouth Geosol developed in Crowley's Ridge Silt. Although a fifth loess called the Marianna Silt is reported at one area, the paleosol that separates the Crowley Ridge and Marianna Silts is not well defined. Previous thermoluminescence (TL) and optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) age chronology has suggested multiple phases of Sangamon Geosol developed in Loveland Silt, but clear morphological evidence of polygenetic Sangamon Geosol profiles have not been found. Recently, a thick loess-paleosol sequence has been studied in the middle Mississippi Valley in unglaciated southern Illinois, USA. Soil morphology and analytical results revealed five loesses and associated paleosol units. Two Sangamon Bt horizons were found separated by a thick ACtk horizon, interpreted to indicate two phases of Sangamon Geosol development. This well-preserved loess-paleosol succession provides one of the most complete mid-late Quaternary loess records in the middle Mississippi Valley to date, and is important for studying the stratigraphic framework and paleoclimate and environment changes. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2007

Ecological Investigations of the Federally Endangered Shivwits Milk-Vetch (Astragalus ampullarioides)--2006 Annual Report

Astragalus ampullarioides (Welsh) Welsh, the Shivwits milk-vetch, is an herbaceous perennial legume that was listed as federally endangered in September 2001. Known populations of this edaphic endemic species are restricted to Washington County, Utah, with the majority of occurrences found on gently sloping outcrops of the Triassic Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation at the edge of the Mojave Desert. At the time of listing in 2001, surveys estimated a total of 1000 individuals for the species. In April-May 2006, surveys estimated approximately 4205 individuals distributed among six populations. Of the total number of individuals estimated in spring 2006, over 75 percent were distributed among three subpopulations in Zion National Park and approximately 60 percent occurred at a single 0.3-ha site in the Park. In addition to small population sizes and limited geographic distributions, the species is threatened to varying degrees by urbanization, livestock grazing, off-road vehicle use, and invasive exotic plants. In April 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated ecological investigations of the Shivwits milk-vetch to support conservation management and recovery of the species by the National Park Service (NPS; Zion National Park), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Shivwits Band of the Paiute Tribe, and other cooperators such as The Nature Conservancy of Utah (TNC). To date, funding for this research has been provided by the Southwest Biological Science Center of the USGS Biological Resources Discipline, the USGS-NPS Park-Oriented Biological Support Project, and the Earth Surface Dynamics Program of the USGS Geologic Discipline. Additional logistical support has been provided by the Bureau of Land Management, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. General objectives of this research are (1) to develop a better understanding of species-environment relations to support habitat modelling, future surveys for additional recovery populations, and potential efforts to establish new recovery populations; and (2) to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on habitat conditions and measures of milk-vetch performance. Specific objectives are to: Describe the distribution and abundance of milk-vetch populations and associated invasive exotic plant species within and outside of Zion National Park (Zion NP) in relation to geologic / geomorphic setting, soil properties, and plant community composition. In a field setting in Zion NP, conduct experiments to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on reproductive output and seedling establishment of A. ampullarioides across a gradient of exotic species biomass. Conduct greenhouse studies and analyze soils to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on soil biological properties (including mycorrhizal inocculation potential) that affect cycling and plant uptake of essential mineral nutrients. Based on environmental characteristics of known population locations, use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to prepare a predictive habitat model that can be used to guide future surveys and efforts to evaluate sites for reintroduction efforts. This report describes 2006 progress and future plans for achieving these four objectives.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Summer snow determines the depth to ice-cemented ground under dry permafrost in Antarctica

Dry permafrost underlain by ice-cemented permafrost has been reported in several locations in Antarctica. Initially thought to be relic ice, it is now understood that this subsurface ice is in equilibrium with the surface conditions, although it is not in equilibrium with the atmosphere. We use year-round data from University Valley in the Dry Valleys and Elephant Head in the Ellsworth Mountains to investigate the seasonal variations in water vapour flux that control the depth to the ice table under dry permafrost. Our analysis shows that the mean annual water vapour density of the soil surface exceeds the atmospheric value by a factor of up to ~2 due to summer snow. The attenuation and phase shift of the annual temperature cycle with depth result in colder temperatures at the ice table than at the surface of the soil in summer. We conclude that this temperature gradient, combined with the summer snow, provides the flux of water to the ice table necessary to maintain the ice. In University Valley, reducing the snow days by 40% moves the stability depth of the ice table from 42 to 66 cm. Increasing the snow days by 60% shifts the ice table to 17 cm. These variations can explain the observed gradient in the depth to the ice table in University Valley.

Antarctic Science↗

USGS2024

Estimating lithium concentrations in groundwater used as drinking water for the conterminous United States

Lithium (Li) concentrations in drinking-water supplies are not regulated in the United States; however, Li is included in the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of unregulated contaminants for monitoring by public water systems. Li is used pharmaceutically to treat bipolar disorder, and studies have linked its occurrence in drinking water to human-health outcomes. An extreme gradient boosting model was developed to estimate geogenic Li in drinking-water supply wells throughout the conterminous United States. The model was trained using Li measurements from ∼13,500 wells and predictor variables related to its natural occurrence in groundwater. The model predicts the probability of Li in four concentration classifications, ≤4 μg/L, >4 to ≤10 μg/L, >10 to ≤30 μg/L, and >30 μg/L. Model predictions were evaluated using wells held out from model training and with new data and have an accuracy of 47–65%. Important predictor variables include average annual precipitation, well depth, and soil geochemistry. Model predictions were mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 km 2 and represent well depths associated with public- and private-supply wells. This model was developed by hydrologists and public-health researchers to estimate Li exposure from drinking water and compare to national-scale human-health data for a better understanding of dose–response to low (<30 μg/L) concentrations of Li.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2016

Metformin and other pharmaceuticals widespread in wadeable streams of the southeastern United States

Pharmaceutical contaminants are growing aquatic-health concerns and largely attributed to wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) discharges. Five biweekly water samples from 59 small Piedmont (United States) streams were analyzed for 108 pharmaceuticals and degradates using high-performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry. The antidiabetic metformin was detected in 89% of samples and at 97% of sites. At least one pharmaceutical was detected at every site (median of 6, maximum of 45), and several were detected at ≥10% of sites at concentrations reported to affect multiple aquatic end points. Maximal cumulative (all detected compounds) concentrations per site ranged from 17 to 16000 ng L –1 . Watershed urbanization, water table depth, soil thickness, and WWTF metrics correlated significantly with in-stream pharmaceutical contamination. Comparable pharmaceutical concentrations and detections at sites with and without permitted wastewater discharges demonstrate the importance of non-WWTF sources and the need for broad-scale mitigation. The results highlight a fundamental biochemical link between global human-health crises like diabetes and aquatic ecosystem health.

Environmental Science & Technology Letters↗

USGS2016

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS2003

Evidence for chlorine recycling - Hydrosphere, biosphere, atmosphere - In a forested wet zone on the Canadian Shield

The ability to measure environmental levels of 36Cl by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry and 3H by 3He-ingrowth Mass Spectrometry has made it possible to use the pulses of these two isotopes released into the atmosphere during nuclear weapons testing as tracers of Cl and water movement in soils and groundwater. The authors have investigated the movement of these tracers below a forested wet zone, and have found that both are retarded to a differing extent in the near surface because of vegetative uptake and recycling. Adsorption by clay particles, followed by slow release to the groundwater, may also be significant. The data accumulated in this region of near vertical recharge have gone a considerable distance towards explaining the anomalously low concentrations of 36Cl measured in the 5 Laurentian Great Lakes, as well as indicating possible mechanisms for large scale Cl- recycling in the atmosphere and biosphere. Identification of the near-term non-conservative behaviour of the Cl- is significant, since such a phenomenon could introduce errors in many watershed calculations, e.g. water residence times, evaporation rates, and mixing calculations. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2020

Estuarine submerged aquatic vegetation habitat provides organic carbon storage across a shifting landscape

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) thrives across the estuarine salinity gradient providing valuable ecosystem services. Within the saline portion of estuaries, seagrass areas are frequently cited as hotspots for their role in capturing and retaining organic carbon (C org ). Non-seagrass SAV, located in the fresh to brackish estuarine areas, may also retain significant soil C org , yet their role remains unquantified. Given rapidly occurring landscape and salinity changes due to human and natural disturbances, landscape level carbon pool estimates from estuarine SAV habitat blue carbon estimates are needed. We assessed C org stocks in SAV habitat soils from estuarine freshwater to saline habitats (interior deltaic) to saline barrier islands (Chandeleur Island) within the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP), Louisiana, USA. SAV habitats contain C org stocks equivalent to those reported for other estuarine vegetation types (seagrass, salt marsh, mangrove). Interior deltaic SAV C org stocks (231.6 ± 19.5 Mg C org ha −1 ) were similar across the salinity gradient, and significantly higher than at barrier island sites (56.6 ± 10.4 Mg C org ha −1 ). Within the MRDP, shallow water SAV habitat covers up to an estimated 28,000 ha, indicating that soil C org storage is potentially 6.4 ± 0.1 Tg representing an unaccounted C org pool. Extrapolated across Louisiana, and the Gulf of Mexico, this represents a major unaccounted pool of soil C org . As marshes continue to erode, the ability of coastal SAV habitat to offset some of the lost carbon sequestration may be valuable. Our estimates of C org sequestration rates indicated that conversion of eroding marsh to potential SAV habitat may help to offset the reduction of C org sequestration rates. Across Louisiana, we estimated SAV to offset this loss by as much as 79,000 Mg C yr −1 between the 1960s and 2000s.

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Climate, snow, and soil moisture data set for the Tuolumne and Merced river watersheds, California, USA

We present hourly climate data to force land surface process models and assessments over the Merced and Tuolumne watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, California, for the water year 2010–2014 period. Climate data (38 stations) include temperature and humidity (23), precipitation (13), solar radiation (8), and wind speed and direction (8), spanning an elevation range of 333 to 2987 m. Each data set contains raw data as obtained from the source (Level 0), data that are serially continuous with noise and nonphysical points removed (Level 1), and, where possible, data that are gap filled using linear interpolation or regression with a nearby station record (Level 2). All stations chosen for this data set were known or documented to be regularly maintained and components checked and calibrated during the period. Additional time-series data included are available snow water equivalent records from automated stations (8) and manual snow courses (22), as well as distributed snow depth and co-located soil moisture measurements (2–6) from four locations spanning the rain–snow transition zone in the center of the domain. Spatial data layers pertinent to snowpack modeling in this data set are basin polygons and 100 m resolution rasters of elevation, vegetation type, forest canopy cover, tree height, transmissivity, and extinction coefficient. All data are available from online data repositories ( https://doi.org/10.6071/M3FH3D ).

California↗

USGS2016

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources. A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively. Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses. Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗