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USGS2020

Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska

Executive Summary Arey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides important habitat for migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. In this work, numerically modeled waves and water levels are computed under the provision of sea-level rise and changing conditions brought about by 21st century climate variability. Model results, supported by observations, are used to assess the stability of the barrier chain and spatiotemporal changes in flood patterns across fringing coastal wet sedge areas. The results aim to support studies that investigate the possibility of new biological succession trajectories and loss or increase of habitat areas.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Assessment of water quality and fecal contamination sources at Hook Pond, East Hampton, New York

Summary The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Village of East Hampton, New York, conducted a 1-year study from August 2017 to August 2018 to provide data necessary to improve understanding of the sources of nutrients and pathogens to Hook Pond watershed to allow for possible mitigation or reduction of loads. Chronic eutrophication and recent concern over harmful cyanobacteria in Hook Pond are the result of past and present land uses and a changing climate that have prompted the Village of East Hampton and local businesses to study and remediate factors contributing to the persistent loading of nutrients, organic contaminants, and pathogens. This assessment of Hook Pond, Hook Pond Dreen, and shallow groundwater provides the most comprehensive set of water-quality data to date. Interpretations presented in this study and the data on which they are based can be used to support management decisions, inform and contribute to modeling, and serve as a baseline for future assessments. Results from continuous monitoring of water temperature, specific conductance, and elevation at Hook Pond site 10 (Maidstone Club golf cart bridge), as well as ancillary weather and tidal data from nearby stations, were used to help explain seasonal and storm-related concentration variation of nitrogen, phosphorus, wastewater-indicator compounds, and pathogens. Data collected were also compared to existing historical data. Physicochemical constituents measured on a routine basis throughout the pond and along the tributary showed the spatial variability in water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and chlorophyll a and phycocyanin fluorescence. A lakebed survey was compiled based on the year-round sampling throughout the pond for future comparisons. Water-quality data from shallow groundwater at points around Hook Pond and adjacent to Hook Pond Dreen were interpreted and quantified to estimate relative contributions and species of nutrients, wastewater-indicator compounds, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers to base flow. To supplement the continuous water-surface elevation data, a single set of discharge measurements was collected under normal (nonstorm) conditions to better understand the relative contributions and dilution of surface waters by contaminated groundwater. The nutrient and physicochemical data from this study can be used in conjunction with current and future models and decision support tools to guide planned and ongoing restoration efforts, such as dredging to reduce sediment accumulation, opening a pathway to the ocean (which would change the salinity and flow dynamics of the pond and adjacent groundwater), and addressing growing concerns over cyanobacterial blooms, while serving as a baseline for measuring changes resulting from sea-level rise, climate change, and changes in nutrient loading. The microbial source tracking and indicator bacteria results can help direct efforts to reduce runoff and direct contributions of fecal contamination from dogs and waterfowl along Hook Pond Dreen. The results can also be used to assess the current state of wastewater infrastructure surrounding and contributing to Hook Pond Dreen, based on detection of human markers throughout the year and with both Bacteroides and coliphage methods.

New York↗

USGS2012

Response of the North American monsoon to regional changes in ocean surface temperature

The North American monsoon (NAM), an onshore wind shift occurring between July and September, has evolved in character during the Holocene largely due to changes in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Published paleoproxy and modeling studies suggest that prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, the NAM affected a broader region than today, extending westward into the Mojave Desert of California. Holocene proxy SST records from the Gulf of California (GoC) and the adjacent Pacific provide constraints for this changing NAM climatology. Prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, lower GoC SSTs would not have fueled northward surges of tropical moisture up the GoC, which presently contribute most of the monsoon precipitation to the western NAM region. During the early Holocene, the North Pacific High was further north and SSTs in the California Current off Baja California were warmer, allowing monsoonal moisture flow from the subtropical Pacific to take a more direct, northwesterly trajectory into an expanded area of the southwestern U.S. west of 114°W. A new upwelling record off southwest Baja California reveals that enhanced upwelling in the California Current beginning at ∼7500 cal year BP may have triggered a change in NAM climatology, focusing the geographic expression of NAM in the southwest USA into its modern core region east of ∼114°W, in Arizona and New Mexico. Holocene proxy precipitation records from the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, including lakes, vegetation/pollen, and caves are reviewed and found to be largely supportive of this hypothesis of changing Holocene NAM climatology.

Arizona;Colorado;New Mexico;Texas;Utah↗

USGS2026

Laboratory measurements of rise velocity for individual, hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles in water

Tracking methane transport becomes more complicated in the deep ocean where seafloor release of methane gas bubbles occurs at the high pressures and low temperatures conducive to hydrate formation on bubble surfaces. Gas hydrate formation can make the bubble surface rigid, preventing the dynamic interplay between bubble size, shape and rise velocity that gas-transport models commonly rely upon when using bubble size to predict bubble rise velocity. To better constrain gas-transport model predictions, we conducted controlled laboratory measurements of rise velocity, u z , for hydrate-free air, methane, and xenon bubbles and hydrate-coated xenon bubbles. Experimental results for u z were compared to predicted u z values from several published parameterizations used to study dissolution of gas bubbles rising in the ocean. For both hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles, the McGinnis et al. (2006) parameterization provides the most accurate u z predictions.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2012

A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons per day, which is 50 percent of mean annual rainfall, and is 42 percent greater than the recharge estimate of Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982). For the northern aquifer sectors defined in Mink (1991), which encompass most of the northern half of the island, mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 238.0 million gallons per day, which is 51 percent of mean annual rainfall, and is about 6 percent lower than the recharge estimate of Mink (1991). For the drought simulation performed in this study, recharge for the entire island is 259.3 million gallons per day, which is 34 percent lower than recharge computed for baseline conditions. For all aquifer sectors defined by Mink (1991), total recharge during drought conditions is 32 percent lower than mean baseline recharge. For the future land-cover water-budget simulation, which represents potential land-cover changes owing to the military relocation and population growth, estimated recharge for the entire island is nearly equal to the baseline recharge estimate that was based on 2004 land cover. Using the water-budget model, estimated recharge in the northern half of the island is most sensitive to crop coefficients and net precipitation rates—two of the water-budget parameters used in the estimation of total evapotranspiration. Estimated recharge in the southern half of the island is most sensitive to crop coefficients, net precipitation rate, and runoff-to-rainfall ratios. During March 2010 to May 2011, bulk-deposition samples from five rainfall stations on Guam were collected and analyzed for chloride. Additionally, samples from five groundwater sites were collected and analyzed for chloride. Results were used to estimate groundwater recharge using the chloride mass-balance method. Recharge estimates using this method at three bulk-deposition stations on the northern limestone plateau range from about 25 to 48 percent of rainfall. These recharge estimates are similar to the estimate of Ayers (1981) who also used this method. Recharge estimates at each bulk-deposition station, however, are lower than the baseline recharge estimate from the water-budget model used in this study. This may be because no large storms, such as tropical cyclones, passed near Guam during March 2010 to May 2011.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Spatial and temporal variability in growth of southern flounder ( Paralichthys lethostigma )

Delineation of stock structure is important for understanding the ecology and management of many fish populations, particularly those with wide-ranging distributions and high levels of harvest. Southern flounder ( Paralichthys lethostigma ) is a popular commercial and recreational species along the southeast Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico, USA. Recent studies have provided genetic and otolith morphology evidence that the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean stocks differ. Using age and growth data from four states (Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) we expanded upon the traditional von Bertalanffy model in order to compare growth rates of putative geographic stocks of southern flounder. We improved the model fitting process by adding a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow each parameter to vary spatially or temporally as a random effect, as well as log transforming the three model parameters ( L ∞ , K , and t 0 ). Multiple comparisons of parameters showed that growth rates varied (even within states) for females, but less for males. Growth rates were also consistent through time, when long-term data were available. Since within-basin populations are thought to be genetically well-mixed, our results suggest that consistent small-scale environmental conditions (i.e., within estuaries) likely drive growth rates and should be considered when developing broader scale management plans.

Fisheries Research↗

USGS1998

West margin of North America - A synthesis of recent seismic transects

A comparison of the deep structure along nine recent transects of the west margin of North America shows many important similarities and differences. Common tectonic elements identified in the deep structure along these transects include actively subducting oceanic crust, accreted oceanic/arc (or oceanic-like) lithosphere of Mesozoic through Cenozoic ages. Cenozoic accretionary prisms, Mesozoic accretionary prisms, backstops to the Mesozoic prisms, and undivided lower crust. Not all of these elements are present along all transects. In this study, nine transects, including four crossing subduction zones and five crossing transform faults, are plotted at the same scale and vertical exaggeration (V.E. 1:1), using the above scheme for identifying tectonic elements. The four subduction-zone transects contain actively subducting oceanic crust. Cenozoic accretionary prisms, and bodies of basaltic rocks accreted in the Cenozoic, including remnants of a large, oceanic plateau in the Oregon and Vancouver Island transects. Rocks of age and composition (Eocene basalt) similar to the oceanic plateau are currently subducting in southern Alaska, where they are doubled up on top of Pacific oceanic crust and have apparently created a giant asperity, or impediment to subduction. Most of the subduction-zone transects also contain Mesozoic accretionary prisms, and two of them, Vancouver Island and Alaska, also contain thick, technically underplated bodies of late Mesozoic/early Cenozoic oceanic lithosphere, interpreted as fragments of the extinct Kula plate. In the upper crust, most of the five transform-fault transects (all in California) reflect: (1) tectonic wedging of a Mesozoic accretionary prism into a backstop, which includes Mesozoic/early Cenozoic forearc rocks and Mesozoic ophiolitic/arc basement rocks: and (2) shuffling of the subduction margin of California by strike-slip faulting. In the lower crust, they may reflect migration of the Mendocino triple junction northward (seen in rocks east of the San Andreas fault) and cessation of Farallon-plate subduction (seen in rocks west of the San Andreas fault). In northern California, lower-crustal rocks east of the San Andreas fault have oceanic-crustal velocity and thickness and contain patches of high reflectivity. They may represent basaltic rocks magmatically underplated in the wake of the migration of the Mendocino triple junction, or they may represent stalled, subducted fragments of the Farallon/Gorda plate. The latter alternative does not fit the accepted 'slabless window' model for the migration of the triple junction. This lower-crustal layer and the Moho are offset at the San Andreas and Maacama faults. In central California, a similar lower-crustal layer is observed west of the San Andreas fault. West of the continental slope, it is Pacitic oceanic crust, but beneath the continent it may represent either Pacific oceanic crust, stalled, subducted fragments (microplates) of the Farallon plate, or basaltic rocks magmatically underplated during subduction of the Pacific/Farallon ridge or during breakup of the subducted Farallon plate. The transect in southern California is only partly representative of regional structure, as the structure here is 3-dimensional. In the upper crust, a Mesozoic prism has been thrust beneath crystalline basement rocks of the San Gabriel Mountains and Mojave Desert. In the mid-crust, a bright reflective zone is interpreted as a possible 'master' decollement that can be traced from the fold-and-thrust belt of the Los Angeles basin northward to at least the San Andreas fault. A Moho depression beneath the San Gabriel Mountains is consistent with downwelling of lithospheric mantle beneath the Transverse Ranges that appears to be driving the compression across the Transverse Ranges and Los Angeles basin.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Stable isotope deltas: Tiny, yet robust signatures in nature

Although most of them are relatively small, stable isotope deltas of naturally occurring substances are robust and enable workers in anthropology, atmospheric sciences, biology, chemistry, environmental sciences, food and drug authentication, forensic science, geochemistry, geology, oceanography, and paleoclimatology to study a variety of topics. Two fundamental processes explain the stable isotope deltas measured in most terrestrial systems: isotopic fractionation and isotope mixing. Isotopic fractionation is the result of equilibrium or kinetic physicochemical processes that fractionate isotopes because of small differences in physical or chemical properties of molecular species having different isotopes. It is shown that the mixing of radioactive and stable isotope end members can be modelled to provide information on many natural processes, including 14C abundances in the modern atmosphere and the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions of the oceans during glacial and interglacial times. The calculation of mixing fractions using isotope balance equations with isotope deltas can be substantially in error when substances with high concentrations of heavy isotopes (e.g. 13C, 2H, and 18O ) are mixed. In such cases, calculations using mole fractions are preferred as they produce accurate mixing fractions. Isotope deltas are dimensionless quantities. In the International System of Units (SI), these quantities have the unit 1 and the usual list of prefixes is not applicable. To overcome traditional limitations with expressing orders of magnitude differences in isotope deltas, we propose the term urey (symbol Ur), after Harold C. Urey, for the unit 1. In such a manner, an isotope delta value expressed traditionally as−25 per mil can be written as−25 mUr (or−2.5 cUr or−0.25 dUr; the use of any SI prefix is possible). Likewise, very small isotopic differences often expressed in per meg ‘units’ are easily included (e.g. either+0.015 ‰ or+15 per meg can be written as+15 μUr.

Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies↗

USGS2003

Mechanism for generating the anomalous uplift of oceanic core complexes: Atlantis Bank, southwest Indian Ridge

Atlantis Bank is an anomalously uplifted oceanic core complex adjacent to the Atlantis II transform, on the southwest Indian Ridge, that rises >3 km above normal seafloor of the same age. Models of flexural uplift due to detachment faulting can account for ???1 km of this uplift. Postdetachment normal faults have been observed during submersible dives and on swath bathymetry. Two transform-parallel, large-offset (hundreds of meters) normal faults are identified on the eastern flank of Atlantis Bank, with numerous smaller faults (tens of meters) on the western flank. Flexural uplift associated with this transform-parallel normal faulting is consistent with gravity data and can account for the remaining anomalous uplift of Atlantis Bank. Extension normal to the Atlantis II transform may have occurred during a 12 m.y. period of transtension initiated by a 10?? change in spreading direction ca. 19.5 Ma. This extension may have produced the 120-km-long transverse ridge of which Atlantis Bank is a part, and is consistent with stress reorientation about a weak transform fault.

Geology↗

USGS2017

A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

Journal of Physical Oceanography↗

USGS2013

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2022

Evaluation of the Bushy Park Reservoir three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model, South Carolina, 2012–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in southeastern South Carolina. The reservoir, located under a semi-tropical climate, is the principal water supply for the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there was an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir in 2022, water-quality concerns are present over taste-and-odor and saltwater-intrusion issues. From 2013 to 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Charleston Water System, engaged in a multi-year study of the hydrology and hydrodynamics of Bushy Park Reservoir to better understand factors affecting water-quality conditions in the reservoir. As part of this study, Charleston Water System worked with Tetra Tech, Inc., a consulting and engineering firm, to develop a Bushy Park Reservoir hydrodynamic and water-quality modeling framework, built upon earlier efforts by both Tetra Tech and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. At the completion of the new modeling framework, the USGS was requested to evaluate the calibrated hydrodynamic and water-quality model. The Bushy Park Reservoir Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model was calibrated for the time period from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2015. The general modeling approach for the newly revised modeling framework, as briefly detailed in this report, was developed with EFDC. The EFDC is a grid-based modeling package that can simulate three-dimensional flow, transport, and water quality in surface-water systems. This report evaluated the capacity of Tetra Tech’s Bushy Park EFDC model to simulate water discharge, water circulation, surface elevations, temperature, salinity, and other water-quality parameters. The USGS model review focused specifically on the following criteria: (1) determine if the model, with additional effort, could be developed into an adequate planning tool for Bushy Park Reservoir; (2) assess the capacity of the model to specifically address water-quality issues in the reservoir related to taste-and-odor and saltwater intrusions; and, (3) evaluate three preliminary water-management scenarios related to reduced water withdrawals in the reservoir and the effect on saltwater intrusion. Overall, the model was able to simulate discharge, flow velocity, and water-surface elevations with generally good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Specifically, the model was able to demonstrate good agreement for discharge at two USGS continuous discharge locations (USGS station 02172002; USGS station 02172040), with Wilmott index of agreements of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. A total of seven USGS streamgages, located on the West Branch of the Cooper River, Durham Canal, and the Cooper River, were available for water-surface elevations, with index of agreements ranging from 0.74 to 0.99. However, model-simulated water-surface elevation ranges were appreciably high (compared to measured ranges) for two locations near Pinopolis Dam, farthest upstream on the West Branch of the Cooper River. This result may indicate that too much simulated tidal energy propagated through the model domain. For water temperature, 16 calibration stations were available for at least part of the 4-year simulation. The index of agreement range for temperature comparisons was from 0.95 to 1.00, indicating excellent agreement between the measured and simulated results. One of the primary future applications for the Bushy Park Reservoir EFDC model is to determine the extent of saltwater intrusions. A wide range in the salinity prediction quality was simulated with the model. The prediction quality ranged from an index of agreement of 0.15 at Cooper River approximately 2.75 miles southeast of the Tee, South Carolina, to 0.92 at West Branch Cooper River near Moncks Corner, South Carolina. Although the model did not accurately simulate some of the larger salinity deviations resulting during individual hydrologic events, the seasonal salinity trends were adequately simulated with the model during the study period (2012–15). Therefore, it may be difficult to simulate extreme hydrologic events, such as during large storms, where high salinity water is exchanged with Bushy Park Reservoir. There was agreement in model simulation with the measured data either on the quantitative index of agreement values or qualitative agreement in the seasonal salinity data trends. For water quality, the index of agreement values were generally low for total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate. Although general trends were adequately simulated at specific stations, particularly for Bushy Park Reservoir, the model-simulated fit was low across all the constituents described above with index of agreements usually below 0.50. A limitation for simulating nutrient concentrations across the model domain was the lack of characterization for the constituents directly entering Bushy Park Reservoir, or the lack of data directly attributed to the boundary condition (for example, the Cooper River). The other two calibrated water-quality constituents (besides the nutrients mentioned above) were dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a . Dissolved oxygen varied from index of agreement values from 0.58 to 0.94 for 11 stations, generally indicating agreement with the available measured data. Chlorophyll a , calibrated for seven stations, had a wider range from 0.11 to 0.74 for the index of agreement. With the current modeling framework, taste-and-odor events, related to cyanobacterial blooms, cannot be directly simulated. However, indirect estimates of cyanobacteria concentrations may be obtained by using the chlorophyll a model outputs, which represent total phytoplankton biomass, and the phytoplankton biovolume data by group (diatoms, green algae, cyanobacteria and others) collected from 2012 to 2015. For the Bushy Park Reservoir modeling framework to be used directly for taste-and-odor issues, cyanobacteria must be simulated and calibrated based on observations of cyanobacteria biomass concentrations. In addition to the cyanobacteria sampling conducted within the reservoir between 2012 and 2015, the new model calibration would also require new algae biomass data-collection efforts to characterize the external sources of cyanobacteria entering the Bushy Park Reservoir from tributaries, as well as the internal cycling, production, and decay of cyanobacteria in the hydrologic system. Further improvements to the EFDC model would include expanding the collection of boundary condition datasets, such as water-quality monitoring to determine improved nutrient loads into the model domain. Along with improved water-quality monitoring for the major boundary conditions, continuous discharge, for both Foster Creek and the Back River, would further constrain the flow balance and the loads into Bushy Park Reservoir. In addition to better boundary-condition characterization, it is important to better characterize possible shortcomings specifically to the model domain, such as the grid resolution, bathymetry, and numerical hydrodynamic errors. Further consideration of the model may involve a sensitivity analysis to determine if errors in the simulation outputs, such as discharge, water-surface elevations, and salinity, were more likely caused by poor boundary condition characterization or, specifically, the model setup. Three model scenarios were run with the revised Bushy Park Reservoir model: (1) reduced withdrawals from one of the large intake-discharge locations for Bushy Park Reservoir, the Williams Station; (2) elevated (above background levels) ocean water level causing saltwater intrusion from the ocean through Durham Canal into Bushy Park Reservoir; and (3) overtopping of the Back River Dam at the southernmost end of Bushy Park Reservoir. For the reduced withdrawals scenarios, the largest shift in flow resulted near the Williams Station intake, with the next largest flow change at the southern end of Bushy Park Reservoir, and a net increase in flow out of the Bushy Park Reservoir to the Cooper River by way of the Durham Canal. The effect resulting from scenario 3 on water quality and salinity was small, with larger increases for dissolved oxygen than other constituents at several monitoring stations. For the two scenarios related to saltwater intrusion (including dam overtopping), the changes in salinity generally were found to dissipate in the following 2 weeks and generally back to baseline salinity conditions within 3 months. This result did vary depending on the severity of the storm or length of the dam overtopping event.

South Carolina↗

USGS1995

Precipitation depth-duration and frequency characteristics for Antelope Valley, Mojave Desert, California

Methods to evaluate changes in the volume of storm runoff from drainage basins that are likely to be urbanized are needed by land-use planning agencies to establish criteria for the design of flood-control systems. To document the changes in runoff volume of basins that may be urbanized, nine small basins that are considered representative of varying hydrologic conditions in Antelope Valley, California, were selected for detailed study. Precipitation and stream-gaging stations were established and data were collected for the period 1990-93. The data collected at these U.S. Geological Survey stations were supplemented by data collected at 35 Long-term precipitation stations operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works. These data will be used to calibrate and verify rainfall-runoff models for the nine basins. Results of the model runs will then be used as a guide for estimating basin runoff characteristics throughout Antelope Valley. Annual precipitation in Antelope Valley ranges from more than 20 inches in the mountains to less than 4 inches on the valley floor. Most precipitation in the valley falls during the months of December through March, but cyclonic storms in the fall and convectional storms in the summer sometimes occur. The duration of most storms ranges from 1 to 8 days, but most of the precipitation usually occurs within the first 2 days. Many parts of the valley have been affected by storms with precipitation depths that equal or exceed 0.60 inch per hour. The storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense storms of record, with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years in some parts of the valley. Depth-duration ratios were calculated by disaggregating daily total precipitation data for intervals of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 18 hours for storms that occurred during 1990-93. The hourly total precipitation data were then disaggregated at 5-minute intervals. A comparison of the depth-duration data collected during 1990-93 at the Geological Survey stations with the data collected at the other stations indicated that the 1990-93 data are not representative of historical storms. Therefore, depth-duration ratios developed using these data should be considered preliminary for use in disaggregating the historical hourly data for Antelope Valley. Annual maximum 24-hour precipitation records were used to calculate precipitation depth-frequency relations for 23 stations in the valley using the log Pearson type III distribution. These calculations indicate that the storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense of record in the valley with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large‐scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

Long‐term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large‐scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record‐high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two‐thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

California↗

USGS2011

A conduit dilation model of methane venting from lake sediments

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but its effects on Earth's climate remain poorly constrained, in part due to uncertainties in global methane fluxes to the atmosphere. An important source of atmospheric methane is the methane generated in organic-rich sediments underlying surface water bodies, including lakes, wetlands, and the ocean. The fraction of the methane that reaches the atmosphere depends critically on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of free-gas venting from the underlying sediments. Here we propose that methane transport in lake sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other shallow-water, organic-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

cBathy: A robust algorithm for estimating nearshore bathymetry

A three-part algorithm is described and tested to provide robust bathymetry maps based solely on long time series observations of surface wave motions. The first phase consists of frequency-dependent characterization of the wave field in which dominant frequencies are estimated by Fourier transform while corresponding wave numbers are derived from spatial gradients in cross-spectral phase over analysis tiles that can be small, allowing high-spatial resolution. Coherent spatial structures at each frequency are extracted by frequency-dependent empirical orthogonal function (EOF). In phase two, depths are found that best fit weighted sets of frequency-wave number pairs. These are subsequently smoothed in time in phase 3 using a Kalman filter that fills gaps in coverage and objectively averages new estimates of variable quality with prior estimates. Objective confidence intervals are returned. Tests at Duck, NC, using 16 surveys collected over 2 years showed a bias and root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.19 and 0.51 m, respectively but were largest near the offshore limits of analysis (roughly 500 m from the camera) and near the steep shoreline where analysis tiles mix information from waves, swash and static dry sand. Performance was excellent for small waves but degraded somewhat with increasing wave height. Sand bars and their small-scale alongshore variability were well resolved. A single ground truth survey from a dissipative, low-sloping beach (Agate Beach, OR) showed similar errors over a region that extended several kilometers from the camera and reached depths of 14 m. Vector wave number estimates can also be incorporated into data assimilation models of nearshore dynamics.

North Carolina↗

USGS2019

Seasonal, spring-neap, and tidal variation in cohesive sediment transport parameters in estuarine shallows

Numerical models for predicting sediment concentrations and transport rely on parameters such as settling velocity and bed erodibility that describe sediment characteristics, yet these parameters are rarely probed directly. We investigated temporal and spatial variation in sediment parameters in the shallows of San Pablo Bay, CA. Flow, turbulence, and suspended sediment data were measured at sites located at 1 and 2 m below mean lower low water (MLLW) from November 2013 through April 2015, supplemented by monthlong periods in 2011, 2012, and 2016. Maximum current velocities were 0.40–0.47 m s -1 at these depths; the strongest currents decreased to 0.27–0.34 m s -1 during neap periods. Winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 experienced strong drought conditions, limiting the potential for seasonal impact on sediment conditions during this experiment. Despite this, the more storm‐influenced site showed clear changes during the winter: the roughness parameter decreased from 10 −4 to 10 −5 m, from hydrodynamically rough to smooth conditions, and bed erodibility increased by an order of magnitude. Median settling velocity was 2.05·10 −4 m s -1 ; it varied twofold within a tidal cycle, decreasing as current velocity grew during flood and ebb. This tidal control on floc size affected settling velocity on the spring‐neap timescale, possibly driving a spring‐neap oscillation in erodibility. Our findings highlight variation in sediment dynamics that is commonly ignored in numerical models and the need for field observations to ground truth ongoing modeling efforts.

California↗

USGS1996

Inelastic models of lithospheric stress - II. Implications for outer-rise seismicity and dynamics

Outer-rise seismicity and dynamics are examined using inelastic models of lithospheric deformation, which allow a more realistic characterization of stress distributions and failure behaviour. We conclude that thrust- and normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes represent substantially different states of stress within the oceanic lithosphere. Specifically, the normal-faulting events occur in response to downward plate bending, which establishes the ‘standard’, bending-dominated state of outer-rise stress, and the thrust-faulting events occur in response to an elevated level of in-plane compression, which develops only in response to exceptional circumstances. This interpretation accounts for the observation that normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes occur more frequently and are more widely distributed than their thrust-faulting counterparts, an observation for which the simple bending model offers no explanation. In addition, attributing both thrust- and normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes to plate bending implies that both classes of events should occur within relatively close lateral proximity to one another because both are allegedly a manifestation of the same bendingdominated stress distribution, whereas, in reality, this is not observed. We propose that the tendency for thrust-faulting outer-rise earthquakes to exhibit greater source depths than their normal-faulting counterparts (an observation that is frequently cited in support of the bending interpretation of the former) is merely a consequence of the fact that bending-induced tension is confined to the upper lithosphere. Our model predicts that outer-rise in-plane-force variations may promote thrust-faulting outerrise activity prior to an underthrusting interplate subduction earthquake and normalfaulting outer-rise activity following such an earthquake, but that both forms of outerrise activity are unlikely to be associated with the same subduction earthquake. A corollary implication of our model is t...

Geophysical Journal International↗