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Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗

Projecting the remaining habitat for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii) in heavily urbanized southern California

Extensive urbanization in coastal southern California has reduced natural habitat in this biodiversity hotspot. To better conserve ecological communities, state and federal agencies, along with local jurisdictions and private stakeholders, developed regional conservation plans for southern California. Although many protected areas exist within this region, the patchwork nature of these protected areas might not provide good coverage for species that require multiple habitat components, such as amphibians with complex life histories. Because of declines in the past century, the status of the western spadefoot ( Spea hammondii ) in southern California is of concern to state and federal wildlife agencies. Species distribution models (SDMs) can aid in determining the conservation status of imperiled species by projecting where suitable habitat remains and how much is protected from further development. We built SDMs that integrated site-occupancy data from systematic pitfall trapping surveys and presence-only data from biodiversity databases and citizen science platforms to project the current distribution of western spadefoots in southern California. Western spadefoot occurrence was positively related to the cover of grassland or shrub/scrub and the % sand in the soil within a 1000 m buffer, and was negatively related to slope, elevation, and distance to ephemeral streams or vernal pools . Most of the remaining unprotected habitat for western spadefoots is in the southern half of its historical range in western San Diego and Riverside counties. A few large tracts of spadefoot habitat exist on U.S. Department of Defense lands and smaller tracts remain on ecological reserves owned by state and local government agencies. Only small patches of habitat remain in the northern half of this clade’s historical range in Ventura, Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties. Existing regional conservation plans provide ostensible spatial coverage of the majority of extant habitat for western spadefoots in southern California, but most of the habitat within the jurisdiction of these plans lacks formal protection, exposing this species to further declines as urbanization continues in the 21st century.

California↗

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Fulfilling a paradoxical mandate: can the Environmental Water Account ensure the reliability of freshwater exports from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and simultaneously protect delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) from excessive entrainment?

The San Francisco Estuary (SFE) is often defined by its extremes. It is considered one of the most urbanized estuaries in the world (Conomos 1979, Nichols et al. 1986), and one of the most invaded estuaries in the United States, with hundreds of aquatic nonindigenous species established throughout the system (Cohen and Carlton 1995, Dill and Cordone 1997, Kimmerer and Orsi 1996). It is also one of the most managed estuaries, particularly in relation to freshwater inflow, water circulation, and water quality (Jassby and Powell 1994, CSWRCB 1995, Arthur et al. 1996, Kimmerer 2002). Despite this high level of disturbance, the SFE is one of the most valuable natural resources in the western United States (CALFED 2000). The SFE provides important habitat for numerous native plant and animal species, many of special concern, as well as several species with sport and commercial value (CALFED 2000). Conserving and restoring estuarine habitat and natural resources is a pressing and complex challenge for the responsible government agencies because human water needs continue to increase in concert with continuing urbanization of the watershed.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗

A mosaic-based approach is needed to conserve biodiversity in disturbed freshwater ecosystems

Conserving native biodiversity in the face of human‐ and climate‐related impacts is a challenging and globally important ecological problem that requires an understanding of spatially connected, organismal‐habitat relationships. Globally, a suite of disturbances (e.g., agriculture, urbanization, climate change) degrades habitats and threatens biodiversity. A mosaic approach (in which connected, interacting collections of juxtaposed habitat patches are examined) provides a scientific foundation for addressing many disturbance‐related, ecologically based conservation problems. For example, if specific habitat types disproportionately increase biodiversity, these keystones should be incorporated into research and management plans. Our sampling of fish biodiversity and aquatic habitat along ten 3‐km sites within the Upper Neosho River subdrainage, KS, from June‐August 2013 yielded three generalizable ecological insights. First, specific types of mesohabitat patches (i.e., pool, riffle, run, and glide) were physically distinct and created unique mosaics of mesohabitats that varied across sites. Second, species richness was higher in riffle mesohabitats when mesohabitat size reflected field availability. Furthermore, habitat mosaics that included more riffles had greater habitat diversity and more fish species. Thus, riffles (<5% of sampled area) acted as keystone habitats. Third, additional conceptual development, which we initiate here, can broaden the identification of keystone habitats across ecosystems and further operationalize this concept for research and conservation. Thus, adopting a mosaic approach can increase scientific understanding of organismal‐habitat relationships, maintain natural biodiversity, advance spatial ecology, and facilitate effective conservation of native biodiversity in human‐altered ecosystems.

Kansas↗

Chilled frogs are hot: hibernation and reproduction of the Endangered mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa

In the face of the sixth great extinction crisis, it is imperative to establish effective breeding protocols for amphibian conservation breeding programs. Captive efforts should not proceed by trial and error, nor should they jump prematurely to assisted reproduction techniques, which can be invasive, difficult, costly, and, at times, counterproductive. Instead, conservation practitioners should first look to nature for guidance, and replicate key conditions found in nature in the captive environment, according to the ecological and behavioral requirements of the species. We tested the effect of a natural hibernation regime on reproductive behaviors and body condition in the Endangered mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa . Hibernation had a clear positive effect on reproductive behavior, manifesting in vocal advertisement signaling, female receptivity, amplexus, and oviposition. These behaviors are critical components of courtship that lead to successful reproduction. Our main finding was that captive R. muscosa require a hibernation period for successful reproduction, as only hibernated females produced eggs and only hibernated males successfully fertilized eggs. Although hibernation also resulted in a reduced body condition, the reduction appeared to be minimal with no associated mortality. The importance of hibernation for reproduction is not surprising, since it is a major component of the conditions that R. muscosa experiences in the wild. Other amphibian conservation breeding programs can also benefit from a scientific approach that tests the effect of natural ecological conditions on reproduction. This will ensure that captive colonies maximize their role in providing genetic reservoirs for assurance and reintroduction efforts.

Endangered Species Research↗

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

California↗

A vision for documenting and sharing knowledge in conservation

As editors, we mark the launch of Conservation Science and Practice , a journal of the Society for Conservation Biology (SCB), with the following remarks framing the purpose and aspirations of the journal. Our aim is to share scholarship on and experiences of the practice of conservation. We define conservation practice as the application of conservation principles or theory across conservation issues, from planning and directly managing nature to influencing public policy and private behaviors—at scales from local communities to international governing bodies. We are striving for Conservation Science and Practice to be a forum for sharing lessons learned from research and practice to reciprocally informing and improving both arenas.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Daily survival rate for nests and chicks of Least Terns ( Sternula antillarum ) at natural nest sites in South Carolina

Although a species of conservation concern, little is known about the reproductive success of Least Terns ( Sternula antillarum ) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of natural beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests and chicks was examined at four natural nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina, 2009&ndash;2010. Measures of nest success ( n = 257 nests) ranged from 0&ndash;93% among colony sites. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, but year and estimates of predation risk also were related to DSR. Predation was the principal cause of identifiable nest loss, accounting for 47% of nest failures when the two years of data were pooled. The probability (&plusmn; SE) of a chick surviving from hatching to fledging = 0.449 &plusmn; 0.01 ( n = 92 chicks). DSR of chicks was negatively related to tide height and rainfall. Therefore, productivity of Least Terns is being lost during both the nesting and chick stage through a combination of biotic and abiotic factors that may prove difficult to fully mitigate or manage. Although natural nesting sites within Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge intermittently produce successful nests, the consistency of productivity over the long term is still unknown. Given that the long term availability of anthropogenic nest sites (e.g., rooftops, dredge-spoil islands) for Least Terns is questionable, further research is required both locally and throughout the region to assess the extent to which natural sites act as population sources or sinks.

South Carolina↗

Coexistence beyond disciplinary silos: Five dimensions of analysis for more convivial human-predator interactions

Understanding human-predator interactions has been a central goal of conservation for decades, yet many previous efforts have approached this challenge from disciplinary perspectives focused on single case studies. There is a need for more transdisciplinary and multi-sited research to enrich our understandings of the complexity of human-nonhuman interactions and to design ways to make them more convivial. The multi-year CONVIVA “convivial conservation” research project addressed this gap, involving scholars from natural sciences, social sciences and humanities to promote coexistence, biodiversity and justice in conservation across four diverse case studies of apex predators: jaguars in Brazil, wolves in Finland, lions in Tanzania, and brown bears in California, United States. In this article, we set out two key contributions. First, we highlight how our project created iterative, dialogue-based reflections amongst different disciplines and perspectives to inform research questions, methods and units of analysis, fulfilling what we see as a key need in the literature. Second, we operationalise our collaboration beyond disciplinary silos into a novel framework of five interconnected dimensions of analysis, that characterise human-predator interactions, drawing on a range of lenses and including a series of guiding questions. We also showcase empirical material from our cases across wildlife, environment, interactions, institutions and justice dimensions. We present our approach, framework and findings with collective reflections and an invitation for adaptation and further research on their suitability to other contexts and species.

Biological Conservation↗

Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

Idaho, Montana↗

Portrait of a small population of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas )

Much attention has been given to the conservation of small populations, those that are small because of decline, and those that are naturally small. Small populations are of particular interest because ecological theory suggests that they are vulnerable to the deleterious effects of environmental, demographic, and genetic stochasticity as well as natural and human-induced catastrophes. However, testing theory and developing applicable conservation measures for small populations is hampered by sparse data. This lack of information is frequently driven by computational issues with small data sets that can be confounded by the impacts of stressors. We present estimates of demographic parameters from a small population of Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) that has been surveyed since 2001 by using capture-recapture methods. Estimates of annual adult survival probability are high relative to other Boreal Toad populations, whereas estimates of recruitment rate are low. Despite using simple models, clear patterns emerged from the analyses, suggesting that population size is constrained by low recruitment of adults and is declining slowly. These patterns provide insights that are useful in developing management directions for this small population, and this study serves as an example of the potential for small populations to yield robust and useful information despite sample size constraints.

Herpetologica↗

Pathways for avian influenza virus spread: GPS reveals wild waterfowl in commercial livestock facilities and connectivity with the natural wetland landscape

Zoonotic diseases are of considerable concern to the human population and viruses such as avian influenza (AIV) threaten food security, wildlife conservation and human health. Wild waterfowl and the natural wetlands they use are known AIV reservoirs, with birds capable of virus transmission to domestic poultry populations. While infection risk models have linked migration routes and AIV outbreaks, there is a limited understanding of wild waterfowl presence on commercial livestock facilities, and movement patterns linked to natural wetlands. We documented 11 wild waterfowl (three Anatidae species) in or near eight commercial livestock facilities in Washington and California with GPS telemetry data. Wild ducks used dairy and beef cattle feed lots and facility retention ponds during both day and night suggesting use for roosting and foraging. Two individuals (single locations) were observed inside poultry facility boundaries while using nearby wetlands. Ducks demonstrated high site fidelity, returning to the same areas of habitats (at livestock facilities and nearby wetlands), across months or years, showed strong connectivity with surrounding wetlands, and arrived from wetlands up to 1251 km away in the week prior. Telemetry data provides substantial advantages over observational data, allowing assessment of individual movement behaviour and wetland connectivity that has significant implications for outbreak management. Telemetry improves our understanding of risk factors for waterfowl–livestock virus transmission and helps identify factors associated with coincident space use at the wild waterfowl–domestic livestock interface. Our research suggests that even relatively small or isolated natural and artificial water or food sources in/near facilities increases the likelihood of attracting waterfowl, which has important consequences for managers attempting to minimize or prevent AIV outbreaks. Use and interpretation of telemetry data, especially in near-real-time, could provide key information for reducing virus transmission risk between waterfowl and livestock, improving protective barriers between wild and domestic species, and abating outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

The Colorado Plateau V: research, environmental planning, and management for collaborative conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers some 130,000 square miles of sparsely vegetated plateaus, mesas, canyons, arches, and cliffs in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. With elevations ranging from 3,000 to 14,000 feet, the natural systems found within the plateau are dramatically varied, from desert to alpine conditions.This volume, the fifth from the University of Arizona Press and the tenth overall, focuses on adaptation of resource management and conservation to climate change and water scarcity, protecting biodiversity through restructured energy policies, ensuring wildlife habitat connectivity across barriers, building effective conservation networks, and exploring new opportunities for education and leadership in conservation science.An informative read for people interested in the conservation and natural history of the region, the book will also serve as a valuable reference for those people engaged in the management of cultural and biological resources of the Colorado Plateau, as well as scientists interested in methods and tools for land and resource management throughout the West.

Book↗

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Ecological Applications↗

Effective conservation of desert riverscapes requires protection and restoration of in-stream flows with rehabilitation approaches tailored to water availability

Desert riverscape rehabilitation practitioners must contend with compounding effects of increasing human water demand, persistent drought, non-native species establishment, and climate change, which further stress desert riverine ecosystems such as rivers in the Colorado River basin, United States. Herein, we provide our perspective on the importance of natural flows, large floods in particular, for successful conservation and rehabilitation of riverscapes. We present ideas developed from our experience with rehabilitation projects across multiple desert tributary rivers with varying levels of habitat degradation and water abstraction. We propose spatially extensive measures such as protection of in-stream flows, tailoring rehabilitation efforts to available annual water availability, and working with nature using low-tech process-based techniques to more completely address the mechanisms of habitat degradation, such as flow reduction and vegetation-induced channel narrowing. Traditionally, rehabilitation efforts in the Colorado River basin take place at relatively small spatial extents, at convenient locations and, largely focus on reducing non-native plant and fish species. We suggest that we need to think more broadly and creatively, and that conservation or recovery of natural flow regimes is crucial to long-term success of almost all management efforts for both in-stream and riparian communities.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

North Carolina's natural heritage program: A case for public-private cooperation

Voluntary conservation programs are an effective tool for recognizing and preserving the value of special places on private forestlands. We evaluate private landowner participation in the Natural Heritage Program of North Carolina, finding that landowners are more likely to enroll land with high ecological significance in this voluntary program. Voluntary conservation is less likely on lands that are remote from threats such as roads, that have higher value in other uses, and that are near lands already conserved by the public.

Journal of Forestry↗

Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene

Research is necessary to identify patterns in nature, to understand how a system functions, and to make predictions about the future state of an ecosystem. Applied research in conservation biology can identify effective strategies to maintain biodiversity, though many papers end with the conclusion that more research is needed. However, more research does not necessarily lead to solutions. We use the ongoing global decline of amphibians as a salient example to highlight limitations in current conservation research, and to focus on finding solutions which are directly relevant for conservation. While research has been conducted since declines were first detected in the 1990s, outside a few specific examples, little progress in conservation has been achieved. We suggest that the case of amphibian declines is relevant to conservation science in general, as the current paradigm for conservation is that management is planned after research is completed; research and management are not effectively (and not directly) connected. This disconnect illustrates the knowledge-action divide which has been identified as a serious deficiency in conservation. Accordingly, we use this introductory paper to the Special Issue (Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene: Progress and challenges) to describe amphibians as a conservation dilemma, and to make the case for a different, more pragmatic, and more solutions-focused view of conservation research.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗