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The use of scenario analysis to assess water ecosystem services in response to future land use change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being (MEA 2005). The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions which will maintain the sustainable nature of our environmental services and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorous loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorous loadings, the lowest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon

Conceptual understanding and groundwater quality of selected basin-fill aquifers in the Southwestern United States

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems in the southwestern United States (hereinafter, “Southwest”) since 2005. Part of the NAWQA Program, the objective of the Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is to develop a better understanding of water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the region by synthesizing information from case studies of 15 basins into a common set of important natural and human-related factors found to affect groundwater quality. The synthesis consists of three major components: 1. Summary of current knowledge about the groundwater systems, and the status of, changes in, and influential factors affecting quality of groundwater in basin-fill aquifers in 15 basins previously studied by NAWQA (this report). 2. Development of a conceptual model of the primary natural and human-related factors commonly affecting groundwater quality, thereby building a regional understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contaminants. 3. Development of statistical models that relate the concentration or occurrence of specific chemical constituents in groundwater to natural and human-related factors linked to the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contamination. Basin-fill aquifers occur in about 200,000 mi 2 of the 410,000 mi 2 SWPA study area and are the primary source of groundwater supply for cities and agricultural communities. Four of the principal aquifers or aquifer systems of the United States are included in the basin-fill aquifers of the study area: (1) the Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona; (2) the Rio Grande aquifer system in New Mexico and Colorado; (3) the California Coastal Basin aquifers; and (4) the Central Valley aquifer system in California. Because of the generally limited availability of surface-water supplies in the arid to semiarid climate, cultural and economic activities in the Southwest are particularly dependent on supplies of good-quality groundwater. Irrigation and public-supply withdrawals from basin-fill aquifers in the study area account for about one quarter of the total withdrawals from all aquifers in the United States. Many factors influence the quality of groundwater in the 15 case-study basins, but some common factors emerge from the basin summaries presented in this report. These factors include the chemical composition of the recharge water, consolidated rock geology and composition of aquifer materials derived from consolidated rock, and land and water use. The major water-quality issues in many of the developed case-study basins are increased concentrations of dissolved solids, nitrate, and VOCs in groundwater as a result of human activities. The information presented and the citations listed in this report serve as a resource for those interested in the groundwater-flow systems in the NAWQA case-study basins. The summaries of water-development history, hydrogeology, conceptual understanding of the groundwater system under both predevelopment and modern conditions, and effects of natural and human-related factors on groundwater quality presented in the sections on each basin also serve as a foundation for the synthesis and modeling phases of the SWPA regional study.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Predicting fine-scale distributions of peripheral aquatic species in headwater streams

Headwater species and peripheral populations that occupy habitat at the edge of a species range may hold an increased conservation value to managers due to their potential to maximize intraspecies diversity and species' adaptive capabilities in the context of rapid environmental change. The southern Appalachian Mountains are the southern extent of the geographic range of native Salvelinus fontinalis and naturalized Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta in eastern North America. We predicted distributions of these peripheral, headwater wild trout populations at a fine scale to serve as a planning and management tool for resource managers to maximize resistance and resilience of these populations in the face of anthropogenic stressors. We developed correlative logistic regression models to predict occurrence of brook trout, rainbow trout, and brown trout for every interconfluence stream reach in the study area. A stream network was generated to capture a more consistent representation of headwater streams. Each of the final models had four significant metrics in common: stream order, fragmentation, precipitation, and land cover. Strahler stream order was found to be the most influential variable in two of the three final models and the second most influential variable in the other model. Greater than 70% presence accuracy was achieved for all three models. The underrepresentation of headwater streams in commonly used hydrography datasets is an important consideration that warrants close examination when forecasting headwater species distributions and range estimates. Additionally, it appears that a relative watershed position metric (e.g., stream order) is an important surrogate variable (even when elevation is included) for biotic interactions across the landscape in areas where headwater species distributions are influenced by topographical gradients.

Ecology and Evolution

Science-Based Strategies for Sustaining Coral Ecosystems

Coral ecosystems and their natural capital are at risk. Greenhouse gas emissions, overfishing, and harmful land-use practices are damaging our coral reefs. Overwhelming scientific evidence indicates that the threats are serious, and if they are left unchecked, the ecological and social consequences will be significant and widespread. Although the primary stressors to coral ecosystems are known, science-based strategies are needed to more accurately explain natural processes and forecast human-induced change. Collaborations among managers and scientists and enhanced mapping, monitoring, research, and modeling can lead to effective mitigation plans. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their partners assess coral ecosystem history, ecology, vulnerability, and resiliency and provide study results to decisionmakers who may devise policies to sustain coral resources and the essential goods and services they provide.

Fact Sheet

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting North Dakota's economy

Introduction As the northernmost Great Plains State encompassing two geomorphological areas divided by the Missouri River, North Dakota has varied needs for high-resolution elevation data. The top industry in North Dakota is agriculture and related products, and the fastest growing sector is natural resources led by oil and gas extraction and mining, all of which contribute to the State’s economy (U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2024b). Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP; refer to sidebar) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better (table 1) to meet the many needs of the Nation and North Dakota. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in North Dakota is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification 2025 Rev. A (https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment (Dewberry, 2012) identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $12.39 million in new benefits annually to the State. The top nine North Dakota business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

North Dakota

Helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic geophysical survey data, portions of the North Platte and South Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska, May 2009

This report is a release of digital data from a helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic survey that was conducted during June 2009 in areas of western Nebraska as part of a joint hydrologic study by the North Platte Natural Resource District (NRD), South Platte NRD, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Flight lines for the survey totaled 937 line kilometers (582 line miles). The objective of the contracted survey, conducted by Fugro Airborne, Ltd., is to improve the understanding of the relation between surface-water and groundwater systems critical to developing groundwater models used in management programs for water resources. A unique aspect of the survey is the flight line layout. One set of flight lines was flown in a zig-zag pattern extending along the length of the previously collected airborne data. The success of this survey design depended on a well-understood regional hydrogeologic framework and model developed by the Cooperative Hydrologic Study of the Platte River Basin and the airborne geophysical data collected in 2008. Resistivity variations along lines could be related to this framework. In addition to these lines, more traditional surveys consisting of parallel flight lines, separated by about 400 meters were carried out for three blocks in the North Platte NRD, the South Platte NRD and in the area of Crescent Lakes. These surveys helped to establish the spatial variations of the resistivity of hydrostratigraphic units. An additional survey was flown over the Crescent Lake area. The objective of this survey, funded by the USGS Office of Groundwater, was to map shallow hydrogeologic features of the southwestern part of the Sand Hills that contain a mix of fresh to saline lakes.

Open-File Report

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin

Choosing indicators of natural resource condition: A case study in Arches National Park, Utah, USA

Heavy visitor use in many areas of the world have necessitated development of ways to assess visitation impacts. Arches National Park recently completed a Visitor Experience and Resource Protection (VERP) plan. Integral to this plan was developing a method to identify biological indicators that would both measure visitor impacts and response to management actions. The process used in Arches for indicator selection is outlined here as a model applicable to many areas facing similar challenges. The steps were: (1) Vegetation types most used by visitors were identified. Impacted and unimpacted areas in these types were sampled, comparing vegetation and soil factors. (2) Variables found to differ significantly between compared sites were used as potential indicators. (3) Site-specific criteria for indicators were developed, and potential indicators evaluated using these criteria. (4) Chosen indicators were further researched for ecological relevancy. (5) Final indicators were chosen, field tested, and monitoring sites designated. In Arches, indicators were chosen for monitoring annually (soil crust index, soil compaction, number of used social trails and soil aggregate stability) and every five years (vegetation cover and frequency; ground cover; soil chemistry; and plant tissue chemistry).

Environmental Management

Helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic geophysical survey data, Swedeburg and Sprague study areas, eastern Nebraska, May 2009

This report is a release of digital data from a helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic survey conducted by Fugro Airborne Surveys in areas of eastern Nebraska as part of a joint hydrologic study by the Lower Platte North and Lower Platte South Natural Resources Districts, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The survey flight lines covered 1,418.6 line km (882 line mile). The survey was flown from April 22 to May 2, 2009. The objective of the contracted survey was to improve the understanding of the relation between surface water and groundwater systems critical to developing groundwater models used in management programs for water resources. The electromagnetic equipment consisted of six different coil-pair orientations that measured resistivity at separate frequencies from about 400 hertz to about 140,000 hertz. The electromagnetic data were converted to georeferenced electrical resistivity grids and maps for each frequency that represent different approximate depths of investigation for each survey area. The electrical resistivity data were input into a numerical inversion to estimate resistivity variations with depth. In addition to the electromagnetic data, total field magnetic data and digital elevation data were collected. Data released in this report consist of flight line data, digital grids, digital databases of the inverted electrical resistivity with depth, and digital maps of the apparent resistivity and total magnetic field. The range of subsurface investigation is comparable to the depth of shallow aquifers. The survey areas, Swedeburg and Sprague, were chosen based on results from test flights in 2007 in eastern Nebraska and needs of local water managers. The geophysical and hydrologic information from U.S. Geological Survey studies are being used by resource managers to develop groundwater resource plans for the area.

Open-File Report

Abstracts from "Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies

In the spring of 2000, scientists discovered a new and unprecedented loss of salt marsh vegetation in coastal Louisiana and other areas along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This dieback of salt marsh vegetation, sometimes called the brown marsh phenomenon', primarily involved the rapid browning and dieback of smooth cordgrass (Spanina alterniflora). Coastal Louisiana has already undergone huge, historical losses of coastal marsh due to both human-induced and natural factors, and the current overall rate of wetland loss (25-35 sq mi 65-91 SQ KM each year) stands to threaten Louisiana's coastal ecosystem, infrastructure, and economy. On January 11-12, 2001, individuals from Federal and State agencies, universities, and the private sector met at the conference 'Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies' to discuss and share information shout the marsh dieback. Presentations discussed trends in the progress of dieback during the summer of 2000 and in environmental conditions occurring at field study sites, possible causes including drought and Mississippi low flow' conditions, changes in soil conditions (salinity, the bioavailability of metals, pathogens, etc.), the potential for wetland loss that could occur if above and below normality occurs and is sustained over an extended period, advanced techniques for tracking the dieback via aerial photography and remote sensing, linkages of marsh hydrology to the dieback, and mechanisms of modeling dieback and recovery. In addition, presentations were made regarding development of a web site to facilitate information sharing and progress in preparation for requests for proposals based on an emergency appropriation by the U.S. Congress. All findings tended to support the idea that the dieback constituted a continuing environmental emergency and research and natural resource management efforts should be expended accordingly.

Information and Technology Report

Crossing boundaries in a collaborative modeling workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.

Society and Natural Resources

Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under consideration. The modeling process is used to promote communication, identify pertinent issues, identify key data gaps and uncertainties, direct research efforts to fill those gaps, and explore the possible consequences of various management alternatives. The workshop, which was facilitated by the AEA Group of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), was attended by approximately 25 invited participants representing a variety of interests concerned with the wetlands protection issue in North Dakota. During the week workshop participants conceptualized and constructed a computerized simulation model incorporating many of the hydrologic, agricultural, and wildlife aspects of the wetlands issue. During the process of constructing this model and examining its behavior, participants identified several interesting alternative strategies that may prove useful in an overall wetland protection program, along with a variety of constraints associated with each. Perhaps the most interesting of these alternatives revolve around the idea that there may be a variety of cases in which water can be retained on the land, with concommitant benefits both for wildlife and flood control, without detriment to agricultural productivity. Examples of this kind of activity include flooding of previously drained Type I wetlands in summer fallow areas, installation of smaller drains in Type I and III wetlands to reduce the rate at which water runs off in the spring, and use of strategically located gates in drainage channels associated with the state highway system to slow runoff and create wetland habitat. Several other alternatives discussed at the workshop are related to the notion of using available, uncommitted water supplied to enhance or create wetlands. Several cases were cited in which more certain water supplies would be useful in increasing waterfowl production or reducing disease problems, especially in dry years. Water for such purposes might come from a variety of current of proposed water development projects, both large and small scale. Finally, the potential for re-establishment of "unsuccessfully" drained (i.e., not consistently usable for agricultural purposes) wetlands was discussed at some length. There are apparently substantial acreages of such wetlands in North Dakota and a program to acquire and rehabilitate them might be of considerable utility. The workshop was thus successful in accomplishing its first two objectives--identification of alternative strategies, opportunities, and constraints. However, it would be naive to suppose that any of the alternatives discussed offers a complete, simple solution to the wetlands issue in North Dakota. The most important result of the workshop may therefore be that which was accomplished relative to the third objective--promotion of communication and understanding. It was gratifying and encouraging to see the spirit of communication and cooperation that developed by the end of the workshop. The fact that representatives of many of the interests concerned with the wetlands issue participated in an open exchange of ideas and information marks an important step forward. We believe that it is imperative that this cooperative attitude be maintained, and that there are a variety of ways in which this might be accomplished. Perhaps the simplest would be a small-scale pilot project and research effort to determine the effects of wetland maintenance on summer fallow areas. Such a research program would provide not only useful information, but an opportunity for many of the affected interests to begin working toward mutually acceptable solutions to the overall wetlands issue.

North Dakota

Creating a standardized watersheds database for the lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, Texas

This report describes the creation of a large-scale watershed database for the lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin in Texas. The watershed database includes watersheds delineated to all 1:24,000-scale mapped stream confluences and other hydrologically significant points, selected watershed characteristics, and hydrologic derivative datasets. Computer technology allows generation of preliminary watershed boundaries in a fraction of the time needed for manual methods. This automated process reduces development time and results in quality improvements in watershed boundaries and characteristics. These data can then be compiled in a permanent database, eliminating the time-consuming step of data creation at the beginning of a project and providing a stable base dataset that can give users greater confidence when further subdividing watersheds. A standardized dataset of watershed characteristics is a valuable contribution to the understanding and management of natural resources. Vertical integration of the input datasets used to automatically generate watershed boundaries is crucial to the success of such an effort. The optimum situation would be to use the digital orthophoto quadrangles as the source of all the input datasets. While the hydrographic data from the digital line graphs can be revised to match the digital orthophoto quadrangles, hypsography data cannot be revised to match the digital orthophoto quadrangles. Revised hydrography from the digital orthophoto quadrangle should be used to create an updated digital elevation model that incorporates the stream channels as revised from the digital orthophoto quadrangle. Computer-generated, standardized watersheds that are vertically integrated with existing digital line graph hydrographic data will continue to be difficult to create until revisions can be made to existing source datasets. Until such time, manual editing will be necessary to make adjustments for man-made features and changes in the natural landscape that are not reflected in the digital elevation model data.

Texas

Comment on the treatment of residual water content in “A consistent set of parametric models for the two-phase flow of immiscible fluids in the subsurface” by L. Luckner et al.

Luckner et al. [1989] (hereinafter LVN) present a clear summary and generalization of popular formulations used for convenient representation of porous media fluid flow characteristics, including water content ( θ ) related to suction ( h ) and hydraulic conductivity ( K ) related to θ or h. One essential but problematic element in the LVN models is the concept of residual water content ( θ r ; in LVN, θ w , r ). Most studies using θ r determine its value as a fitted parameter and make the assumption that liquid flow processes are negligible at θ values less than θ r . While the LVN paper contributes a valuable discussion of the nature of θ r , it leaves several problems unresolved, including fundamental difficulties in associating a definite physical condition with θ r , practical inadequacies of the models at low θ values, and difficulties in designating a main wetting curve.

Water Resources Research

Streamflow reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin using a novel Bayesian network model

A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree-ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries comes together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree-ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree-ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. The spatial network structure allows a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network and the spatial dependence structure increases the information content. Our application to eighteen streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted-R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. A comparison with the traditional principal components regression shows that the spatial Bayesian model offers improvements, as downstream gauges are informed by the reconstruction of the upstream gauges, as well as the tree-ring chronologies.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Time-domain electromagnetic soundings collected in Dawson County, Nebraska, 2007-09

Between April 2007 and November 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Platte Natural Resources District, collected time-domain electro-magnetic (TDEM) soundings at 14 locations in Dawson County, Nebraska. The TDEM soundings provide information pertaining to the hydrogeology at each of 23 sites at the 14 locations; 30 TDEM surface geophysical soundings were collected at the 14 locations to develop smooth and layered-earth resistivity models of the subsurface at each site. The soundings yield estimates of subsurface electrical resistivity; variations in subsurface electrical resistivity can be correlated with hydrogeologic and stratigraphic units. Results from each sounding were used to calculate resistivity to depths of approximately 90-130 meters (depending on loop size) below the land surface. Geonics Protem 47 and 57 systems, as well as the Alpha Geoscience TerraTEM, were used to collect the TDEM soundings (voltage data from which resistivity is calculated). For each sounding, voltage data were averaged and evaluated statistically before inversion (inverse modeling). Inverse modeling is the process of creating an estimate of the true distribution of subsurface resistivity from the mea-sured apparent resistivity obtained from TDEM soundings. Smooth and layered-earth models were generated for each sounding. A smooth model is a vertical delineation of calculated apparent resistivity that represents a non-unique estimate of the true resistivity. Ridge regression (Interpex Limited, 1996) was used by the inversion software in a series of iterations to create a smooth model consisting of 24-30 layers for each sounding site. Layered-earth models were then generated based on results of smooth modeling. The layered-earth models are simplified (generally 1 to 6 layers) to represent geologic units with depth. Throughout the area, the layered-earth models range from 2 to 4 layers, depending on observed inflections in the raw data and smooth model inversions. The TDEM data collected were considered good results on the basis of root mean square errors calculated after inversion modeling, comparisons with borehole geophysical logging, and repeatability.

Nebraska

Computed discharges at five sites in lower Laguna Madre near Port Isabel, Texas, June 1997

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), and Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) are charged by the Texas Legislature with determining freshwater inflows required to maintain the ecological health of streams, bays, and estuaries in Texas. To determine required inflows, the three agencies collect data and conduct studies on the needs for freshwater inflows to estuaries. The TWDB uses estuarine hydrodynamic and conservativetransport computer models to predict the effects of altering freshwater inflows on estuarine circulation and salinity. To calibrate these models, a variety of water-quality and discharge data are needed.

Texas

Managing bay and estuarine ecosystems for multiple services

Managers are moving from a model of managing individual sectors, human activities, or ecosystem services to an ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach which attempts to balance the range of services provided by ecosystems. Applying EBM is often difficult due to inherent tradeoffs in managing for different services. This challenge particularly holds for estuarine systems, which have been heavily altered in most regions and are often subject to intense management interventions. Estuarine managers can often choose among a range of management tactics to enhance a particular service; although some management actions will result in strong tradeoffs, others may enhance multiple services simultaneously. Management of estuarine ecosystems could be improved by distinguishing between optimal management actions for enhancing multiple services and those that have severe tradeoffs. This requires a framework that evaluates tradeoff scenarios and identifies management actions likely to benefit multiple services. We created a management action-services matrix as a first step towards assessing tradeoffs and providing managers with a decision support tool. We found that management actions that restored or enhanced natural vegetation (e.g., salt marsh and mangroves) and some shellfish (particularly oysters and oyster reef habitat) benefited multiple services. In contrast, management actions such as desalination, salt pond creation, sand mining, and large container shipping had large net negative effects on several of the other services considered in the matrix. Our framework provides resource managers a simple way to inform EBM decisions and can also be used as a first step in more sophisticated approaches that model service delivery.

Estuaries and Coasts