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USGS2019

Iterative models for early detection of invasive species across spread pathways

Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Wes↗
USGS2020

The role of phosphorus and nitrogen on chlorophyll a: Evidence from hundreds of lakes

The effect of nutrients on phytoplankton biomass in lakes continues to be a subject of debate by aquatic scientists. However, determining whether or not chlorophyll a (CHL) is limited by phosphorus (P) and/or nitrogen (N) is rarely considered using a probabilistic method in studies of hundreds of lakes across broad spatial extents. Several studies have applied a unified CHL-nutrient relationship to determine nutrient limitation, but pose a risk of ecological fallacy because they neglect spatial heterogeneity in ecological contexts. To examine whether or not CHL is limited by P, N, or both nutrients in hundreds of lakes and across diverse ecological settings, a probabilistic machine learning method, Bayesian Network, was applied. Spatial heterogeneity in ecological context was accommodated by the probabilistic nature of the results. We analyzed data from 1382 lakes in 17 US states to evaluate the cause-effect relationships between CHL and nutrients. Observations of CHL, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) were discretized into three trophic states (oligo-mesotrophic, eutrophic, and hypereutrophic) to train the model. We found that although both nutrients were related to CHL trophic state, TP was more related to CHL than TN, especially under oligo-mesotrophic and eutrophic CHL conditions. However, when the CHL trophic state was hypereutrophic, both TP and TN were important. These results provide additional evidence that P-limitation is more likely under oligo-mesotrophic or eutrophic CHL conditions and that co-limitation of P and N occurs under hypereutrophic CHL conditions. We also found a decreasing pattern of the TN/TP ratio with increasing CHL concentrations, which might be a key driver for the role change of nutrients. Previous work performed at smaller scales support our findings, indicating potential for extension of our findings to other regions. Our findings enhance the understanding of nutrient limitation at macroscales and revealed that the current debate on the limiting nutrient might be caused by failure to consider CHL trophic state. Our findings also provide prior information for the site-specific eutrophication management of unsampled or data-limited lakes.

Water Research↗
USGS2015

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates ( i ) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, ( ii ) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and ( iii ) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: ( i ) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, ( ii ) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and ( iii ) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Hydrodynamics structure plankton communities and interactions in a freshwater tidal estuary

Drivers of phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics vary spatially and temporally in estuaries due to variation in hydrodynamic exchange and residence time, complicating efforts to understand controls on food web productivity. We conducted approximately monthly (2012–2019; n = 74) longitudinal sampling at 10 fixed stations along a freshwater tidal terminal channel in the San Francisco Estuary, California, characterized by seaward to landward gradients in water residence time, turbidity, nutrient concentrations, and plankton community composition. We used multivariate autoregressive state space (MARSS) models to quantify environmental (abiotic) and biotic controls on phytoplankton and mesozooplankton biomass. The importance of specific abiotic drivers (e.g., water temperature, turbidity, nutrients) and trophic interactions differed significantly among hydrodynamic exchange zones with different mean residence times. Abiotic drivers explained more variation in phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics than a model including only trophic interactions, but individual phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions explained more variation than individual abiotic drivers. Interactions between zooplankton and phytoplankton were strongest in landward reaches with the longest residence times and the highest zooplankton biomass. Interactions between cryptophytes and both copepods and cladocerans were stronger than interactions between bacillariophytes (diatoms) and zooplankton taxa, despite contributing less biovolume in all but the most landward reaches. Our results demonstrate that trophic interactions and their relative strengths vary in a hydrodynamic context, contributing to food web heterogeneity within estuaries at spatial scales smaller than the freshwater to marine transition.

California↗
USGS2011

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change

Purpose of Review We examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade planned connections, potentially reducing their effectiveness. We synthesize advances in connectivity design approaches, identify challenges confronted by researchers and practitioners, and offer suggestions for future research. Recent Findings Recent studies incorporated future CC into connectivity design more often than LUC and rarely considered the two drivers jointly. When considering CC, most studies have focused on relatively broad spatial and temporal extents and have included either species-based targets or coarse-filter targets like geodiversity and climate gradients. High levels of uncertainty about future LUC and lack of consistent, readily available model simulations are likely hindering its inclusion in connectivity modeling. This high degree of uncertainty extends to efforts to jointly consider future CC and LUC. Summary We argue that successful promotion of connectivity as a means to adapt to CC and LUC will depend on (1) the velocity of CC, (2) the velocity of LUC, and (3) the degree of existing landscape fragmentation. We present a new conceptual framework to assist in identifying connectivity networks given these three factors. Given the high uncertainty associated with future CC and LUC, incorporating insights from decision science into connectivity planning will facilitate the development of more robust adaptation strategies.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗
USGS2015

Long-term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern U.S., are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To better understand these detrimental effects, we formulate a conceptual model of dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change that integrates hypotheses on how plant species will respond to increases in temperature and drought, including how plant responses to climate are modified by landscape, soil, and plant attributes that are integral to water availability and use. We test the model through a synthesis of fifty years of repeat measurements of perennial plant species cover in large permanent plots across the Mojave Desert, one of the most water-limited ecosystems in North America. Plant species ranged in their sensitivity to precipitation in different seasons, capacity to increase in cover with high precipitation, and resistance to decrease in cover with low precipitation. Our model successfully explains how plant responses to climate are modified by biophysical attributes in the Mojave Desert. For example, deep-rooted plants were not as vulnerable to drought on soils that allowed for deep water percolation, whereas shallow-rooted plants were better buffered from drought on soils that promoted water retention near the surface. Synthesis. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding climate-vegetation relationships in the context of biophysical attributes that influence water availability and provide an important forecast of climate-change effects, including plant mortality and land degradation in dryland regions throughout the world.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2009

Exploring extensions to multi-state models with multiple unobservable states

Many biological systems include a portion of the target population that is unobservable during certain life history stages. Transition to and from an unobservable state may be of primary interest in many ecological studies and such movements are easily incorporated into multi-state models. Several authors have investigated properties of open-population multi-state mark-recapture models with unobservable states, and determined the scope and constraints under which parameters are identifiable (or, conversely, are redundant), but only in the context of a single observable and a single unobservable state (Schmidt et al. 2002; Kendall and Nichols 2002; Schaub et al. 2004; Kendall 2004). Some of these constraints can be relaxed if data are collected under a version of the robust design (Kendall and Bjorkland 2001; Kendall and Nichols 2002; Kendall 2004; Bailey et al. 2004), which entails >1 capture period per primary period of interest (e.g., 2 sampling periods within a breeding season). The critical assumption shared by all versions of the robust design is that the state of the individual (e.g. observable or unobservable) remains static for the duration of the primary period (Kendall 2004). In this paper, we extend previous work by relaxing this assumption to allow movement among observable states within primary periods while maintaining static observable or unobservable states. Stated otherwise, both demographic and geographic closure assumptions are relaxed, but all individuals are either observable or unobservable within primary periods. Within these primary periods transitions are possible among multiple observable states, but transitions are not allowed among the corresponding unobservable states. Our motivation for this work is exploring potential differences in population parameters for pond-breeding amphibians, where the quality of habitat surrounding the pond is not spatially uniform. The scenario is an example of a more general case where individuals move between habitats both during the breeding season (within primary periods; transitions among observable states only) and during the non-breeding season (between primary periods; transitions between observable and unobservable states). Presumably, habitat quality affects demographic parameters (e.g. survival and breeding probabilities). Using this model we are able to test this prediction for amphibians and determine if individuals move to more favorable habitats to increase survival and breeding probabilities.

Book chapter↗
USGS2026

An ecosystem-scale model of PFAS dynamics in stream-to-riparian food webs

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are widespread contaminants in aquatic ecosystems, where they bioaccumulate and trophically transfer through food webs. We derived an ecosystem-scale model assessing Σ 12 PFAS partitioning, bioaccumulation by larval aquatic insects, bioamplification by adult aquatic insects, and trophic transfer from aquatic insects to riparian spiders using data collected across five streams in a mildly impacted watershed. Partitioning involved the greatest PFAS enrichments (range in posterior median log 10 k d values = 1.5–2.1), with lesser concentration increases from particulates to larval aquatic insects and from larval to adult aquatic insects, and Σ 12 PFAS concentration decreases from adult aquatic insects to spiders. Among the 12 compounds, PFOS had the largest proportional contribution to Σ 12 PFAS concentrations for all sample types, with consistently increasing concentrations from surface water to adult aquatic insects. Σ 12 PFAS concentrations (5.4–51 ppb wet weight), body burdens (0.44–5.2 ng per individual), and bioamplification factors (0.15–4.9) differed considerably among five common aquatic insect taxa. This study presents a robust modeling framework for PFAS trophodynamics and offers insights into the biological controls that contribute to the context dependency of PFAS at the interfaces of aquatic and terrestrial food webs.

Connecticut, Massachusetts↗
USGS2018

A guide to calculating habitat-quality metrics to inform conservation of highly mobile species

Many metrics exist for quantifying the relative value of habitats and pathways used by highly mobile species. Properly selecting and applying such metrics requires substantial background in mathematics and understanding the relevant management arena. To address this multidimensional challenge, we demonstrate and compare three measurements of habitat quality: graph-, occupancy-, and demographic-based metrics. Each metric provides insights into system dynamics, at the expense of increasing amounts and complexity of data and models. Our descriptions and comparisons of diverse habitat-quality metrics provide means for practitioners to overcome the modeling challenges associated with management or conservation of such highly mobile species. Whereas previous guidance for applying habitat-quality metrics has been scattered in diversified tracks of literature, we have brought this information together into an approachable format including accessible descriptions and a modeling case study for a typical example that conservation professionals can adapt for their own decision contexts and focal populations. Considerations for Resource Managers Management objectives, proposed actions, data availability and quality, and model assumptions are all relevant considerations when applying and interpreting habitat-quality metrics. Graph-based metrics answer questions related to habitat centrality and connectivity, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify basic spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require the least data. Occupancy-based metrics answer questions about likelihood of persistence or colonization, are suitable for populations that undergo localized extinctions, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require a moderate amount of data. Demographic-based metrics answer questions about relative or absolute population size, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify demographic processes and population dynamics, and require the most data. More real-world examples applying occupancy-based, agent-based, and continuous-based metrics to seasonally migratory species are needed to better understand challenges and opportunities for applying these metrics more broadly.

Natural Resource Modeling↗
USGS2005

Evolution of melt-vapor surface tension in silicic volcanic systems: Experiments with hydrous melts

We evaluate the melt‐vapor surface tension (σ) of natural, water‐saturated dacite melt at 200 MPa, 950–1055°C, and 4.8–5.7 wt % H 2 O. We experimentally determine the critical supersaturation pressure for bubble nucleation as a function of dissolved water and then solve for σ at those conditions using classical nucleation theory. The solutions obtained give dacite melt‐vapor surface tensions that vary inversely with dissolved water from 0.042 (±0.003) J m −2 at 5.7 wt % H 2 O to 0.060 (±0.007) J m −2 at 5.2 wt % H 2 O to 0.073 (±0.003) J m −2 at 4.8 wt % H 2 O. Combining our dacite results with data from published hydrous haplogranite and high‐silica rhyolite experiments reveals that melt‐vapor surface tension also varies inversely with the concentration of mafic melt components (e.g., CaO, FeO total , MgO). We develop a thermodynamic context for these observations in which melt‐vapor surface tension is represented by a balance of work terms controlled by melt structure. Overall, our results suggest that cooling, crystallization, and vapor exsolution cause systematic changes in σ that should be considered in dynamic modeling of magmatic processes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Estimating site occupancy and detection probability parameters for meso- and large mammals in a coastal eosystem

Large-scale, multispecies monitoring programs are widely used to assess changes in wildlife populations but they often assume constant detectability when documenting species occurrence. This assumption is rarely met in practice because animal populations vary across time and space. As a result, detectability of a species can be influenced by a number of physical, biological, or anthropogenic factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, topography, biological rhythms, sampling methods). To evaluate some of these influences, we estimated site occupancy rates using species-specific detection probabilities for meso- and large terrestrial mammal species on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We used model selection to assess the influence of different sampling methods and major environmental factors on our ability to detect individual species. Remote cameras detected the most species (9), followed by cubby boxes (7) and hair traps (4) over a 13-month period. Estimated site occupancy rates were similar among sampling methods for most species when detection probabilities exceeded 0.15, but we question estimates obtained from methods with detection probabilities between 0.05 and 0.15, and we consider methods with lower probabilities unacceptable for occupancy estimation and inference. Estimated detection probabilities can be used to accommodate variation in sampling methods, which allows for comparison of monitoring programs using different protocols. Vegetation and seasonality produced species-specific differences in detectability and occupancy, but differences were not consistent within or among species, which suggests that our results should be considered in the context of local habitat features and life history traits for the target species. We believe that site occupancy is a useful state variable and suggest that monitoring programs for mammals using occupancy data consider detectability prior to making inferences about species distributions or population change.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) abundance along the Missouri River, USA

Context: Changes in disturbance regimes, including reductions in flooding and geomorphic dynamism from dam construction and flow regulation, have facilitated invasion by eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.), an upland tree species, in the understory of floodplain forests along the Missouri National Recreational River (MNRR). Objectives: Our aim was to determine the spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of redcedar invasion along the MNRR. Methods: We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from winter Landsat imagery to construct a time series of maps showing spatial changes in redcedar abundance and distribution from 1982 to 2017 in both riparian and upland habitats along the MNRR. We determined how environmental factors (e.g., soil drainage ability, flood recurrence interval, 1980s LULC, lateral distance to the river, and channel incision) have influenced current (2017) redcedar occurrence and abundance in riparian habitats using random forest models (RFM). Results: Time-series maps indicated that detectable redcedar cover occurred over less than 5% of the study area before 1985, increased steadily from 1985 to 2000, and more than tripled from 2000 to 2010. After 2010, redcedar abundance continued to increase in upland areas but declined following the 2011 Missouri River flood in the floodplain. RFMs indicated that river incision, distance to the river, soil drainage, 1984 LULC, and flood recurrence interval were important features influencing redcedar occurrence and abundance in the floodplain. Conclusion: Unless preventive measures are implemented, lack of floods and ongoing flow regulation will enable the continued spread of redcedar along the MNRR and other regulated rivers in the eastern Great Plains.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗
USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2001

Paleomagnetic data bearing on style of Miocene deformation in the Lake Mead area, Southern Nevada

Paleomagnetic and structural data from intermediate to mafic composition lava flows and related dikes in all major blocks of the late Miocene Hamblin-Cleopatra Volcano, which was structurally dismembered during the development of the Lake Mead Fault System (LMFS), provide limits on the magnitude and sense of tilting and vertical axis rotation of crust during extension of this part of the Basin and Range province. Sinistral separation along the fault system dissected the volcano into three major blocks. The eastern, Cleopatra Lobe of the volcano is structurally the most intact section of the volcano. Normal and reverse polarity data from paleomagnetic sites collected along traverses in the Cleopatra Lobe yield an in situ grand mean of Declination (D) = 339??, Inclination (I) = +54??, ??95 = 3.1??, k = 27.2, N = 81 sites. The rocks of the central core of the volcano yield an in situ grand mean of D = 3??, I = + 59??, ??95 = 6.8??, k = 42.5, N = 11 sites (six normal, five reverse polarity). Sites collected within the western Hamblin Lobe of the volcano are exclusively of reverse polarity and yield an overall in situ mean of D = 168??, I = -58??, ??95 = 6.5??. k = 28.9, N = 18 sites. Interpretation of the paleomagnetic data in the context of the structural history of the volcano and surrounding area, considers the possibility of two different types of structural corrections. A stratigraphic tilt correction involves restoring flows to the horizontal using the present strike. This correction assumes no initial, possibly radial, dip of flows of the volcano and is considered invalid. A structural tilt correction to the data assumes that dikes of the radiating swarm associated with the volcano were originally vertical and results in block mean directions of D = 9??, I = +53??, ??95 = 3.1??, k = 27.2, and D = 58??, I = + 78??, ??95 = 6.8, k = 42.5, for the Cleopatra Lobe and the central intrusive core, respectively. The data from the Cleopatra Lobe are slightly discordant, in a clockwise sense, from expected middle- to late-Miocene field directions. The data from the volcano are not consistent with a proposed structural model of uniform, moderate magnitude, statistically significant, counter-clockwise vertical axis rotation of fault-bounded blocks during overall sinsitral displacement along the LMFS. We also analyzed dikes of the northernmost part of the Miocene Wilson Ridge hypabyssal igneous complex, strata of the Triassic Chinle Formation, and basalt flows of the Miocene West End Wash/Callville Mesa volcanic centers. Dikes in the Wilson Ridge pluton and the Triassic strata yield magnetizations with directions suggestive of statistically significant, clockwise, vertical-axis rotations consistent with local, large-magnitude shear of crustal fragments near some of the faults of the LMFS. Late Cenozoic deformation of the Hamblin-Cleopatra volcano area appears to have been non-uniform in scale and magnitude and no single structural model, involving strictly strike-slip faulting, can account for the observed paleomagnetic data. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Structural Geology↗
USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗
USGS2021

The history of surface-elevation paradigms in mangrove biogeomorphology

Positioned in the intertidal zone, mangrove forests are a key model ecosystem with which to observe and test biogeomorphological concepts. Understanding how mangroves interact with their intertidal environment, particularly tidal inundation, is important if we are to assess their vulnerability or resilience to accelerated sea-level rise. While various biogeomorphological processes are now well studied in mangroves, these are not new concepts, and researchers often do not adequately describe their historical origins. This chapter discusses the historical context of two key paradigms in mangrove biogeomorphology: (1) the distribution of mangroves across the intertidal zone is controlled primarily by tidal inundation and (2) mangroves can adjust their elevation relative to the tidal frame through a combination of minerogenic and biogenic processes. The first paradigm had been noted as early as 350 BC, and studied quantitatively since at least the 1920s in Malaysia. The concept of “Inundation Classes” introduced at that time is still used by mangrove restoration practitioners today. The second paradigm has its roots in debates over whether mangroves are “land builders” or “land consolidators” in the early 20th century, and our view of this paradigm is strongly influenced by the geomorphic setting in which we work. It is important for us to understand the historical underpinnings of mangrove science and how they have shaped the paradigms that we use today. At a time when the mangrove research field is rapidly expanding, it is also important to acknowledge the intellectual contribution of researchers upon which we build today's science.

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