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USGS2024

Intraguild interactions and abiotic conditions mediate occupancy of mammalian carnivores: Co-occurrence of coyotes–fishers–martens

The widespread eradication of large carnivores and subsequent expansion of top mesopredators has the potential to impact species and community interactions with ecosystem-wide implications. An example of these trophic dynamics is the widespread establishment of coyotes following extirpation of wolves and mountain lions in eastern North America. Here, we examined occupancy of three carnivores in northern New York considering both environmental/habitat factors and interspecific interactions. We estimated the co-occurrence of coyotes, fishers, and martens from a landscape-scale winter camera trap survey repeated annually for three years. Martens occurred independently of both coyotes and fishers, while fishers and coyotes displayed positive intraguild interactions that were constant across the landscape. Both marten and fisher first-order occupancy were driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors, with both species displaying positive associations with forest cover but antithetical responses to average snow depth. The integral and antithetical role of snow depth in driving the occurrence of martens (positive) and fishers (negative) in the landscape indicates that future climatic warming could reduce the availability of current spatial refuges for martens created by severe winter conditions. Climate-driven alterations to established competitive interactions and co-existence patterns between marten and fisher have critical implications for the species survival and conservation. We provide correlational evidence consistent with the potential for positive top–down effects of dominant mesocarnivores on subordinate species, with fisher occupancy increasing conditional on the presence of coyotes across the landscape. These findings align with the hypothesis that under certain conditions, coyotes may facilitate certain subordinate carnivores. The evidence produced here is consistent with hypotheses on the dynamic nature of trophic niches. We demonstrate the need to consider the interplay between climate, habitat, and interspecific interactions to understand wildlife occupancy patterns and inform wildlife management in a rapidly changing world.

New York↗

USGS2011

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane ( Grus americana ), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida↗

USGS2019

The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2026

A conceptual framework and methods for studying the connectivity of fishes

Connectivity is a multifaceted concept that has important implications for the management and conservation of marine and freshwater fishes. We developed a conceptual framework that encompasses multiple, interrelated categories of connectedness, including landscape (e.g., structural, functional) connectivity and ecological (e.g., trophic, genetic, demographic) connectivity, that together shape the flow of organisms, energy and information across ecosystems. We also synthesised six key methods that can be used to study connectivity of fishes: (1) telemetry, including satellite, acoustic, radio and passive integrated transponders (PIT), (2) mark-recapture, (3) environmental tracers, including stable isotopes and otolith-microchemistry, (4) genetics, (5) community structure analysis and (6) emerging technologies and tools (e.g., remote sensing and artificial intelligence). For each method, we describe the categories of connectivity it can assess and provide real-world examples where they have been effectively used. We also identify limitations of each method. This article highlights the diverse and evolving toolbox of methods used to assess fish connectivity, underscoring the need for continued collaboration, innovation and integration of new approaches to refine our understanding and address remaining challenges in this critical area of aquatic ecology and fisheries management.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2009

Influence of a weak field of pulsed DC electricity on the behavior and incidence of injury in adult Steelhead and Pacific Lamprey

Predation by pinnipeds, such as California sea lions Zalophus californianus, Pacific harbor seals Phoca vitulina, and Stellar sea lions Eumetopias jubatus on adult Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp in the lower Columbia River has become a serious concern for fishery managers trying to conserve and restore runs of threatened and endangered fish. As a result, Smith-Root, Incorporated (SRI; Vancouver, Washington), manufacturers of electrofishing and closely-related equipment, proposed a project to evaluate the potential of an electrical barrier to deter marine mammals and reduce the amount of predation on adult salmonids (SRI 2007). The objectives of their work were to develop, deploy, and evaluate a passive, integrated sonar and electric barrier that would selectively inhibit the upstream movements of marine mammals and reduce predation, but would not injure pinnipeds or impact anadromous fish migrations. However, before such a device could be deployed in the field, concerns by regional fishery managers about the potential effects of such a device on the migratory behavior of Pacific salmon, steelhead O. mykiss, Pacific lampreys Entoshpenus tridentata, and white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus, needed to be addressed. In this report, we describe the results of laboratory research designed to evaluate the effects of prototype electric barriers on adult steelhead and Pacific lampreys.

Report↗

USGS2017

Estimating Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA

The Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) is classified as a Species of Greatest Conservation Need by the state of Vermont. There is concern regarding status of populations in the Lake Champlain basin because of habitat alteration and potential effects of 3-trifluromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), a chemical used to control Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). The purpose of our research was to assess Mudpuppy capture methods and abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA. We sampled Mudpuppies under a mark-recapture framework, using modified, baited minnow traps set during two winter-spring periods. We marked each Mudpuppy with a passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag and released individuals after collecting morphological measurements. We collected 80 individuals during 2,581 trap days in 2008–2009 (year 1), and 81 individuals during 3,072 trap days in 2009–2010 (year 2). We estimated abundance from spring trapping periods in 2009 and 2010, during which capture rates were sufficient for analysis. Capture probability was low (< 0.04), but highest following precipitation events in spring, during periods of higher river flow, when water temperatures were approximately 3 to 6° C. During October 2009, management agencies treated the Lamoille River with TFM. Surveyors recovered more than 500 dead Mudpuppies during the post-treatment assessment. Overall, Mudpuppy captures did not change between sampling periods; however, we captured fewer females during year 2 compared to year 1, and the sex ratio changed from 0.79:1 (M:F) during year 1 to 3:1 (M:F) during year 2. Our data may help wildlife managers assess population status of Mudpuppies in conjunction with fisheries management techniques.

Vermont↗

USGS2013

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation ( > 1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a greater than or equal to 90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments < 7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS1982

Earth Science Information System (ESIS)

The Earth Science Information System (ESIS) was developed in 1981 by the U.S. Geological Survey's Office of the Data Administrator. ESIS serves as a comprehensive data management facility designed to support the coordination, integration, and standardization of scientific, technical, and bibliographic data of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). ESIS provides, through an online interactive computer system, referral to information about USGS data bases, data elements which are fields in the records of data bases, and systems. The data bases contain information about many subjects from several scientific disciplines such as: geology, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, cartography, oceanography, geography, minerals exploration and conservation, and satellite data sensing.

Report↗

USGS2018

A conservation paradox in the Great Basin—Altering sagebrush landscapes with fuel breaks to reduce habitat loss from wildfire

Interactions between fire and nonnative, annual plant species (that is, “the grass/fire cycle”) represent one of the greatest threats to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and associated wildlife, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). In 2015, U.S. Department of the Interior called for a “science-based strategy to reduce the threat of large-scale rangeland fire to habitat for the greater sage-grouse and the sagebrush-steppe ecosystem.” An associated guidance document, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan,” identified fuel breaks as high priority areas for scientific research. Fuel breaks are intended to reduce fire size and frequency, and potentially they can compartmentalize wildfire spatial distribution in a landscape. Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flame length, fireline intensity, and rates of fire spread in order to enhance firefighter access, improve response times, and provide safe and strategic anchor points for wildland fire-fighting activities. To accomplish these objectives, fuel breaks disrupt fuel continuity, reduce fuel accumulation, and (or) increase plants with high moisture content through the removal or modification of vegetation in strategically placed strips or blocks of land. Fuel breaks are being newly constructed, enhanced, or proposed across large areas of the Great Basin to reduce wildfire risk and to protect remaining sagebrush ecosystems (including greater sage-grouse habitat). These projects are likely to result in thousands of linear miles of fuel breaks that will have direct ecological effects across hundreds of thousands of acres through habitat loss and conversion. These projects may also affect millions of acres indirectly because of edge effects and habitat fragmentation created by networks of fuel breaks. Hence, land managers are often faced with a potentially paradoxical situation: the need to substantially alter sagebrush habitats with fuel breaks to ultimately reduce a greater threat of their destruction from wildfire. However, there is relatively little published science that directly addresses the ability of fuel breaks to influence fire behavior in dryland landscapes or that addresses the potential ecological effects of the construction and maintenance of fuel breaks on sagebrush ecosystems and associated wildlife species. This report is intended to provide an initial assessment of both the potential effectiveness of fuel breaks and their ecological costs and benefits. To provide this assessment, we examined prior studies on fuel breaks and other scientific evidence to address three crucial questions: (1) How effective are fuel breaks in reducing or slowing the spread of wildfire in arid and semi-arid shrubland ecosystems? (2) How do fuel breaks affect sagebrush plant communities? (3) What are the effects of fuel breaks on the greater sage-grouse, other sagebrush obligates, and sagebrush-associated wildlife species? We also provide an overview of recent federal policies and management directives aimed at protecting remaining sagebrush and greater sage-grouse habitat; describe the fuel conditions, fire behavior, and fire trends in the Great Basin; and suggest how scientific inquiry and management actions can improve our understanding of fuel breaks and their effects in sagebrush landscapes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Map of sand and gravel mines, prospects, and occurrences, and the geologic units that host them in the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) study area, southwestern Wyoming

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a long-term science based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale in southwest Wyoming, while facilitating responsible development through local collaboration and partnerships. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey is to build the scientifically defensible foundation on which WLCI planners, decisionmakers, and resource managers may base their activities. Understanding the distribution of mineral resources is integral to understanding where mineral development (mining) might be concentrated in the future and how that mining might affect habitats. This map and report focus on naturally-occurring sand and gravel, a form of construction aggregate.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1. Puget Sound is a deep, fjord-type estuary covering an area of 2,330 km 2 in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (fig. 1). It is connected to the ocean by the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a turbulent passage approximately 160 km in length and 22 km wide at its west end, expanding to over 40 km wide at its east end (Thomson, 1994). During the Pleistocene, the area was occupied several times by lobes of continental ice, resulting in a complex basin-fill of glacial and interglacial deposits that are locally as thick as 1100 m (Johnson and others, 2001). The last glaciation, called the Fraser glaciation, began after 28,800±740 14 C yr B.P. when ice started a slow expansion (Clague, 1981). At peak advance the westward Juan de Fuca lobe reached the edge of the continental shelf through the Juan de Fuca Strait shortly before 14,460±200 14 C yr B.P. (Herzer and Bornhold, 1982). The southward Puget lobe advanced to its terminal position in Puget Sound by around 14,150 14 C yr B.P. (Porter and Swanson, 1998). Ice retreated from its maximum to northern Whidbey Island by 13,650±350 14 C yr B.P. (Dethier and others, 1995). Retreating glaciers resulted in a thick sequence of ice-contact, glacial-marine sediment, and early post-glacial sediments (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). These deposits have experienced the effects of a marine transgression followed by regression, resulting in a sea-level several tens of meters lower than the present day (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). A second transgression brought sea level to about the present level by around 5,470±120 14 C yr B.P. (Clague and others, 1982) establishing the present oceanographic and geologic environment Puget Sound is separated into four interconnected basins; Whidbey, Central (Main), Hood Canal, and South (Thomson, 1994). The Whidbey, Central, and Hood Canal basins are the three main branches of the Puget Sound estuary and are separated from the Strait of Juan de Fuca by a double sill at Admiralty Inlet. The Admiralty Inlet map area includes the Inlet and a portion of the Whidbey Basin (fig. 1). The shallower South Basin is separated by a sill at Tacoma Narrows and is highly branched with numerous finger inlets. Flow within Puget Sound is dominated by tidal currents of as much as 1 m/s at Admiralty Inlet, reducing to approximately 0.5 m/s in the Central Basin (Lavelle and others, 1988). The lack of silt and clay-sized sediments in the Admiralty Inlet map area is likely a result of the strong currents (see Ground-Truth Studies for the Admiralty Inlet Map Area, sheet 3). The subtidal component of flow reaches approximately 0.1 m/s and is driven by density gradients arising from the contrast in salty ocean water at the entrance and freshwater inputs from stream flow (Lavelle and others, 1988). The total freshwater input to Puget Sound is approximately 3.4 x 10 6 m 3 /day, primarily from the Skagit River (Cannon, 1983). The subtidal circulation mostly consists of a two-layered flow in the basins with fresher water exiting at the surface and saltier water entering at depth (Ebbesmeyer and Cannon, 2001). In general, surface waters flow north and deeper waters flow south; variations arise from wind effects that can drive a surface current in the same direction as the wind, and a baroclinic response in the lower layer to about 100-m depth (Matsuura and Cannon, 1997). Oceanographic properties are influenced by temporal forcing parameters such as reduced stream flow during the 2000-01 drought that increased surface salinity and decreased differences between surface and bottom waters (Newton and others, 2003). On offshore seismic-reflection profiles, Pleistocene strata (excluding latest Pleistocene glacial and post-glacial deposits) form a distinct seismic unit, bounded below by pre-Tertiary or Tertiary basement and above by typically flat-lying latest Pleistocene to Holocene deposits that fill in erosional or depositional relief (Johnson and others, 2001). Cores from central Puget Sound have accumulation rates that range from 85 to 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr, or 0.12 to 2.4 cm/yr; the highest accumulation rates are near the southern end of central Puget Sound (Carpenter and others, 1985). Carpenter and others (1985) un-weighted arithmetic mean of accumulation rates for central Puget Sound deeper stations is 480±340 (± one standard deviation) mg/cm 2 /yr. Lavelle and others (1985) also found rates as high as 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr over the past approximately 70 years in cores in the Central Basin off of and north and south of Elliott Bay. Puget Sound basin rates are comparable to rates in midshelf silt deposits on the Washington coast north of the Columbia River (Nittrouer and others, 1979). The deep subtidal (in other words, below SCUBA depths) habitats of Puget Sound are relatively poorly known. A few subtidal surveys exist for several habitat types from the 1960s and 1970s (reviewed in Dethier, 1990), using grab and box core data. The Dethier (1990) review divides habitat up into Coast and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) substrate, water column energy, and depth zones but does not attempt to map these habitats, rather it is an inventory of habitats found in the area and the flora and fauna associated with each habitat. The approach of the Southern Salish Sea Mapping project is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, and bottom-sediment sampling data. This approach is based in part on methods presented and data collection and product needs identified at the Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop (Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop Steering Committee, 2008), attended by coastal and marine managers and scientists. The map products display seafloor geomorphology and substrate, and identify potential marine benthic habitats. It is emphasized that the more interpretive habitat and geology maps rely on the integration of multiple, new high-resolution datasets and that mapping at small scales would not be possible without such data. Oceanographic current and wave data is not included in this analysis, however, the accompanying geographic information system (GIS) data set is designed and intended to be combined with oceanographic and biologic data sets assembled by others in the future and some of the GIS data has already been incorporated in the unpublished Nature Conservancy Benthic Habitats of Puget Sound database. This publication includes four map sheets, explanatory text, and a descriptive pamphlet. Each map sheet is published as a portable document format (PDF) file. ESRI ArcGIS compatible geotiffs (for example, bathymetry) and shapefiles (for example video observation points) will be available for download in the data catalog associated with this publication (Cochrane, 2015). An ArcGIS Project File with the symbology used to generate the map sheets is also provided. For those who do not own the full suite of ESRI GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using ESRI ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html .

Washington↗

USGS2025

An interagency perspective on improving consistency and transparency of land use and land cover mapping

Executive Summary Geospatial products of land use and land cover are broadly used in many applications. For example, the annual national greenhouse gas inventory uses the National Land Cover Database, the Coastal Change Analysis Program, Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools, the Forest Inventory and Analysis, and the National Resources Inventory to represent the land use and management base of the United States and attribute sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Federally produced land use and land cover datasets for the United States, including those from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, set the foundation for developing and informing applications such as land change, conservation, greenhouse gas monitoring, urban planning, agricultural production, ecosystem functions, and water quantity and use. No single land use and land cover product is optimal for all land use and land cover applications. Approaches for defining and mapping land use and land cover classes differ across Federal map products, reflecting the tailoring of product specifications to match specific agency needs. These differing approaches present a challenge when attempting to integrate and harmonize multiple land use and land cover products into single analysis or application frameworks. Nuanced understanding of how these products are designed and produced may not be immediately evident to users; however, the availability of a diverse suite of products also represents an opportunity, providing multiple approaches for observing landscape change. In response to the National Strategy to Advance an Integrated U.S. Greenhouse Gas Measurement, Monitoring, and Information System, this Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium-led interagency report presents (1) the current status of U.S. Federal land use and land cover products (as of May 2024), (2) existing synergies and integration among these federally produced land use and land cover products, (3) inherent challenges of creating a single consistent framework, and (4) strategies for collectively tackling these challenges to improve coordination and collaboration among data producers and facilitate the adoption of land use and land cover products for greenhouse gas monitoring and a variety of other applications.

Circular↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2025

Wet meadow regeneration through restoration of biophysical feedbacks

Wet meadows are globally significant ecosystems that provide critical hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical functions, yet their extent has declined dramatically due to land use changes and hydrologic alteration. These sedge-dominated wetlands exist at the drier end of the wetland gradient, maintained by shallow groundwater and periodic inundation. This paper is a global synthesis of the ecological, geomorphic, and hydrological dynamics of wet meadows, with an emphasis on alluvial systems, to inform effective restoration strategies. We compare wet meadows to other wetlands, classify them into palustrine, lacustrine, and alluvial types, then focus on alluvial wet meadows and discuss how their formation and persistence depend on ground and surface water interactions, sediment deposition and flow obstructions, all mediated by biological processes. In particular, we highlight the role of hydric graminoids in resisting erosion and maintaining soil cohesion, how beaver promote meadow persistence, and the significance of wet meadows as carbon sinks. We also present stratigraphic evidence demonstrating that incision, often triggered by anthropogenic activity or changing climate, is the primary mechanism of alluvial wet meadow degradation, resulting in water table decline and shifts in vegetation composition. Restoration requires reversing these incisional processes through techniques that elevate water tables, disperse flow and retain sediment—methods traditionally associated with either soil conservation or stream restoration. These include nature-based solutions that create obstructions such as beaver dams and their analogues, rock and wood-based obstructions and incision trench or gully filling and grading. Given their multifunctional value—including but not limited to flood attenuation, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration—wet meadows warrant a focused restoration framework. This review advocates for a valley-floor scale restoration paradigm that integrates hydrological reconnection, sediment retention, and biological reinforcement to ensure long-term resilience of these systems in the face of changing climate and land use pressures.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2025

Perpetuation of avian influenza from molt to fall migration in wild Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides): An agent-based modeling approach

Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir of avian influenza, but their distinct annual life cycle stages and their contribution to disease dynamics are not well understood. Studies of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have primarily focused on wintering grounds, where human and poultry densities are high year-round, compared with breeding grounds, where migratory waterfowl are more isolated. Few if any studies of avian influenza have focused on the molting stage where wild waterfowl congregate in a few selected wetlands and undergo the simultaneous molt of wing and tail feathers during a vulnerable flightless period. The molting stage may be one of the most important periods for the perpetuation of the disease in waterfowl, since during this stage, immunologically naïve young birds and adults freely intermix prior to the fall migration. Our study incorporated empirical data from virological field samplings and markings of Swan Geese ( Anser cygnoides ) on their breeding grounds in Mongolia in an integrated agent-based model (ABM) that included susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) states. Our ABM results provided unique insights and indicated that individual movements between different molting wetlands and the transmission rate were the key predictors of HPAI perpetuation. While wetland extent was not a significant predictor of HPAI perpetuation, it had a large effect on the number of infections and associated death toll. Our results indicate that conserving undisturbed habitats for wild waterfowl during the molting stage of the breeding season could reduce the risk of HPAI transmission.

Viruses↗

USGS2018

Genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of isolated populations of shoal bass in the upper Chattahoochee River basin, Georgia

This report characterizes the status of multiple isolated Shoal Bass ( Micropterus cataractae ) populations in the upper Chattahoochee River basin (UCRB), Georgia. The Shoal Bass, a sport fish endemic to the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River (ACF) basin, is a fluvial-specialist species considered vulnerable to local extirpations and extinction due to habitat fragmentation and introgression with non-native congeners. Perhaps one of the most isolated populations of Shoal Bass exists in a 2-km reach of Big Creek, a tributary of the Chattahoochee River located near Roswell, Georgia. Big Creek is partially contained within the Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area, although the Big Creek watershed is riddled with urban land cover. Roswell Mill Dam limits the upstream extent of the Shoal Bass population at Big Creek, and the downstream extent is presumably limited to the confluence of Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River. This reach of the Chattahoochee River is thermally depressed because of coldwater releases from Lake Lanier, and is considered unsuitable for Shoal Bass. Herein, we examine the genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. We also examine two additional Shoal Bass populations that occur in the UCRB, specifically the Chestatee River and the upper Chattahoochee River, both of which are impounded at Lake Lanier. Together, the Shoal Bass inhabiting these three stream systems comprise a distinct genetic stock of Shoal Bass (Taylor 2017), underscoring the importance of conserving these populations towards maintaining the overall diversity and adaptive potential of the species. We assessed genetic diversity and estimated effective population sizes within these three rivers by genotyping fish with 16 microsatellite DNA markers. Results demonstrated that the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek has experienced high rates of introgression with non-native Smallmouth Bass (M. dolomieu), purportedly introduced into the Chattahoochee River in the past 10-15 years. Alarmingly, only 24% (15 of 62) of putative Shoal Bass collected from Big Creek were genetically pure Shoal Bass, whereas the majority of fish were first-filial (F1) generation hybrids and unidirectional backcrosses towards Shoal Bass. Fleeting opportunity may remain to conserve the native genome of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. High hybridization rates prevented genetic diversity analysis for the Big Creek population. Shoal Bass populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers displayed levels of genetic diversity similar to populations that persist in other rivers in the ACF basin, namely the Flint and Chipola rivers. Effective population sizes of 93.8– 197.4 for the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers (combined) suggest that the conservation status of these populations is stable for the short-term, but may be at risk of losing genetic diversity and adaptive potential in the long-term. To estimate age and mortality of the three populations, we used fish scales and capture-markrecapture (CMR) as complementary, non-lethal methods for age estimation. Estimated ages of phenotypic Shoal Bass ranged from 1-12 years in all three populations, demonstrating increased longevity compared to populations elsewhere within the native range. Catch-curve estimates of annual mortality ranged from 18.4-23.7%, which are markedly lower than those observed in other Shoal Bass populations in the ACF basin. These differences in life-history characteristics underscore the need for the development of population-specific management and conservation strategies for Shoal Bass in the UCRB. The lowest recruitment variability (i.e., the variation in year-class strength) was observed in the Chestatee River, a forested watershed, whereas the highest variability was observed in Big Creek, an urbanized watershed. Recruitment strength in Big Creek was negatively influenced by discharge variability in the summer months, suggesting that flashy, sediment-laden flows hinder survival of recently hatched young. Other statistically significant models from Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River indicated that over-winter survival could be an important pinch-point for recruitment in UCRB populations. A multi-agency sampling effort was conducted from May 2013-May 2016 to estimate the population size of Shoal Bass occupying the 1-km of wadeable shoal habitats in Big Creek. Using CMR models, we estimated that approximately 219-348 Shoal Bass (≥ 70 mm total length) occupied the area throughout the duration of our study. These estimates largely reflect abundance of individuals aged 0-2 years, as only 9% (36 of 408) tagged fish were aged ≥ 7 years. Local abundance appeared similar to that reported for a population that inhabited Little Uchee Creek, a similar-sized tributary of the Chattahoochee River, prior to its recent functional extirpation. The low abundance of large, adult Shoal Bass further suggests the long-term viability of the Big Creek population may be in jeopardy. Perhaps most importantly, CMR estimates reflect abundance of phenotypic Shoal Bass – genetic analyses suggest the abundance of pure Shoal Bass could be an order of magnitude smaller. To evaluate the potential for adult Shoal Bass to emigrate from Big Creek into the mainstem Chattahoochee River, we tagged eight adults with acoustic telemetry tags and assessed their seasonal residency at two stationary receiver locations located in increasing proximity to the confluence with the Chattahoochee River. Fish took up residency near the confluence during the fall and winter months, during which time water temperatures in Big Creek were periodically colder than the Chattahoochee River. Although we were unable to document emigration, we conclude that the potential for emigration is highest during the winter months when the Chattahoochee River may be warmer than Big Creek. Two of the tagged fish were caught by anglers near the confluence, suggesting that angling pressure at Big Creek may be higher than previously suspected. Overall, this study observed unique life-history characteristics and characterized the population status of multiple Shoal Bass populations in the UCRB. Populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers appear stable at present and likely represent the last remaining strongholds for pure Shoal Bass in the UCRB. Efforts to preserve forested watershed conditions, natural hydrology, and shoal habitats would contribute to the long-term persistence of Shoal Bass populations in these two rivers. Additionally, the detection of non-native Alabama Bass and their associated hybrids in both rivers is cause for concern. Diligent monitoring of hybridization dynamics between Alabama Bass and Shoal Bass is warranted, along with an assessment of Alabama Bass invasion extent upstream of Lake Lanier. The Shoal Bass population in Big Creek is threatened by elevated levels of introgression with nonnative Smallmouth Bass, recruitment variability, low abundance of adults, and isolation from other populations. Conservation intervention is urgently needed to restore and preserve this genetically distinct population, which would contribute to preservation of range wide genetic diversity and adaptability of the species. Additionally, an urban sport fishery for Shoal Bass at Big Creek has the potential to serve as a tool for increasing public awareness, engagement, and support of Shoal Bass conservation efforts in the UCRB. We suggest strategies for conservation of the remnant shoal habitats and Shoal Bass population in Big Creek, including potential development of a supplemental stocking program, selective removal of non-native congeners, and delivery of environmental education programs that could bolster awareness and appreciation.

Georgia↗

USGS2026

Where will the cat cross the road? Comparing camera and GPS-based models for identifying wildlife corridors

Designing effective wildlife corridors is a critical conservation challenge in fragmented landscapes. GPS-based step selection functions strongly predict dispersal corridors and connectivity, but GPS collaring can be expensive and invasive. Camera-based occupancy models are widely used for connectivity analyses but may involve trade-offs in data resolution. Despite widespread use of both approaches, few studies have directly compared them using concurrent datasets. We developed a stacked single-species, single-season occupancy model and a Circuitscape connectivity surface for mountain lions (Puma concolor) on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula, USA, and compared them with a connectivity surface from an existing integrated step selection function. Both models predicted mountain lion GPS locations well, with binned Spearman rank correlations of 1 for Circuitscape and 0.96 for the step selection function, though step selection better identified habitat use by dispersers. Connectivity predictions were moderately correlated across the landscape ( r = 0.26), but agreement was strongest in human-dominated areas most critical for corridor planning. We conclude that GPS-based approaches are advantageous when data collection is feasible and the focus is on dispersal or fine-scale movement. However, camera-based approaches may be preferable for multi-species monitoring, large spatial and temporal scales, noninvasive sampling, when resources are limited, or when fine-scale or dispersal-specific inference is not required.

Washington↗