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Contribution of research to management and recovery of the roseate tern: review of a twelve-year project

The Northwest Atlantic population of the Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) is largely confined to a small breeding area along the northeast coast of the USA between 40? and 42?N. This population was listed as endangered in the USA in 1987 because it was dangerously concentrated into a few breeding sites (85% on two islands in the 1980s). The nesting population in the area from Long Island, New York to Cape Cod, Massachusetts has been studied intensively since 1987, in conjunction with a program of management of the breeding colonies. This paper summarizes the results of the research program and discusses the extent to which it has contributed to effective management. The regional population now numbers about 4,000 breeding pairs and has been increasing slowly since 1987, except between 1991 and 1992 when it declined by about 17%. This decline was probably caused by Hurricane `Bob' in August 1991. Roseate Terns have specialized foraging habits and are concentrated into a small number of foraging areas near the nesting colonies. The historically important breeding sites were taken over by large gulls between 1930 and 1972. Many of the terns moved to less suitable sites near the mainland, where they are subject to predation by mainland-based predators. Despite this, Roseate Terns breed with high success at many sites. The sex-ratio is skewed towards females; about 12% of nests are attended by female-female pairs. The annual adult survival rate (0.83) is unusually low for a seabird. Most mortality occurs away from the breeding grounds, but the winter quarters remained unknown until one roost site was found in Brazil in 1995-1997. A major management goal has been to restore former colony-sites by eliminating nesting gulls, but the success of some of these projects has been questionable because they may have attracted birds to sites with higher levels of predation. Although the research has yielded important information about the biology and demography of the species, it has taken longer than expected to obtain and analyze data from multiple sites on this long-lived species. Most work has been carried out at breeding sites: critical studies on feeding ecology and winter ecology have been hampered by insufficient funding and the paucity of self-motivated biologists. Hence, the program has not yet provided all the keys to restoring the population.

Waterbirds↗

Onshore and offshore geologic map of the Coal Oil Point area, southern California

Geologic maps that span the shoreline and include both onshore and offshore areas are potentially valuable tools that can lead to a more in depth understanding of coastal environments. Such maps can contribute to the understanding of shoreline change, geologic hazards, both offshore and along-shore sediment and pollutant transport. They are also useful in assessing geologic and biologic resources. Several intermediate-scale (1:100,000) geologic maps that include both onshore and offshore areas (herein called onshore-offshore geologic maps) have been produced of areas along the California coast (see Saucedo and others, 2003; Kennedy and others, 2007; Kennedy and Tan, 2008), but few large-scale (1:24,000) maps have been produced that can address local coastal issues. A cooperative project between Federal and State agencies and universities has produced an onshore-offshore geologic map at 1:24,000 scale of the Coal Oil Point area and part of the Santa Barbara Channel, southern California (fig. 1). As part of the project, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) hosted a workshop (May 2nd and 3rd, 2007) for producers and users of coastal map products (see list of participants) to develop a consensus on the content and format of onshore-offshore geologic maps (and accompanying GIS files) so that they have relevance for coastal-zone management. The USGS and CGS are working to develop coastal maps that combine geospatial information from offshore and onshore and serve as an important tool for addressing a broad range of coastal-zone management issues. The workshop was divided into sessions for presentations and discussion of bathymetry and topography, geology, and habitat products and needs of end users. During the workshop, participants reviewed existing maps and discussed their merits and shortcomings. This report addresses a number of items discussed in the workshop and details the onshore and offshore geologic map of the Coal Oil Point area. Results from this report directly address issues raised in the California Ocean Protection Act (COPA) Five Year Strategic Plan. For example, one of the guiding principles of the COPA five-year strategic plan is to 'Recognize the interconnectedness of the land and the sea, supporting sustainable uses of the coast and ensuring the health of ecosystems.' Results from this USGS report directly connect the land and sea with the creation of both a seamless onshore and offshore digital terrain model (DTM) and geologic map. One of the priority goals (and objectives) of the COPA plan is to 'monitor and map the ocean environment to provide data about conditions and trends.' Maps within this report provide land and sea geologic information for mapping and monitoring nearshore sediment processes, pollution transport, and sea-level rise and fall.

California↗

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have experienced sharp declines over the last 60 years driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. In recent decades, modern climate change has amplified these pressures. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To understand the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we systematically reviewed published empirical relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. We used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. We found that grassland birds were likely to experience both positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation, with moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation potentially benefiting some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reducing abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (< 1 month or ≥ 1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life history strategies of various species, and species’ tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Conservation Biology↗

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Global Change Biology↗

Methow and Columbia Rivers studies: summary of data collection, comparison of database structure and habitat protocols, and impact of additional PIT tag interrogation systems to survival estimates, 2008-2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received funding from the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to provide monitoring and evaluation on the effectiveness of stream restoration efforts by Reclamation in the Methow River watershed. This monitoring and evaluation program is designed to partially fulfill Reclamation’s part of the 2008 Biological Opinion for the Federal Columbia River Power System that includes a Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) to protect listed salmon and steelhead across their life cycle. The target species in the Methow River for the restoration effort include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), UCR steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), which are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act. Since 2004, the USGS has completed two projects of monitoring and evaluation in the Methow River watershed. The first project focused on the evaluation of barrier removal and steelhead recolonization in Beaver Creek with Libby and Gold Creeks acting as controls. The majority of this work was completed by 2008, although some monitoring continued through 2012. The second project (2008–2012) evaluated the use and productivity of the middle Methow River reach (rkm 65–80) before the onset of multiple off-channel restoration projects planned by the Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The upper Methow River (upstream of rkm 80) and Chewuch River serve as reference reaches and the Methow River downstream of the Twisp River (downstream of rkm 65) serves as a control reach. Restoration of the M2 reach was initiated in 2012 and will be followed by a multi-year, intensive post-evaluation period. This report is comprised of three chapters covering different aspects of the work completed by the USGS. The first chapter is a review of data collection that documents the methods used and summarizes the work done by the USGS from 2008 through 2012. This data summary was designed to show some initial analysis and to disseminate summary information that could potentially be used in ongoing modeling efforts by USGS, Reclamation, and University of Idaho. The second chapter documents the database of fish and habitat data collected by USGS from 2004 through 2012 and compares USGS habitat protocols to the Columbia Habitat Monitoring Program (CHaMP) protocol. The third chapter is a survival analysis of fish moving through Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag interrogation systems in the Methow and Columbia Rivers. It examines the effects of adding PIT tags and/or PIT tag interrogation systems on survival estimates of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon.

Washington↗

Snake fungal disease: An emerging threat to wild snakes

Since 2006, there has been a marked increase in the number of reports of severe and often fatal fungal skin infections in wild snakes in the eastern USA. The emerging condition, referred to as snake fungal disease (SFD), was initially documented in rattlesnakes, where the infections were believed to pose a risk to the viability of affected populations. The disease is caused by Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola , a fungus recently split from a complex of fungi long referred to as the Chrysosporium anamorph of Nannizziopsis vriesii (CANV). Here we review the current state of knowledge about O. ophiodiicola and SFD. In addition, we provide original findings which demonstrate that O. ophiodiicola is widely distributed in eastern North America, has a broad host range, is the predominant cause of fungal skin infections in wild snakes and often causes mild infections in snakes emerging from hibernation. This new information, together with what is already available in the scientific literature, advances our knowledge of the cause, pathogenesis and ecology of SFD. However, additional research is necessary to elucidate the factors driving the emergence of this disease and develop strategies to mitigate its impacts.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

Status and distribution of the West Indian manatee, Trichechus manatus manatus, in Colombia

Historical and recent information on the status and distribution of West Indian manatee, Trichechus manatus manatus, in Colombia was reviewed. Opportunistic and systematic interviews were also conducted. Historical information suggested that the distribution of manatees had been reduced in the Caribbean basin. Manatees can be found in the Atrato, Sinu??, San Jorge, Cauca, Cesar and Magdalena rivers and the Cie??naga Grande de Santa Marta marsh in the Caribbean basin, and in the Meta River in the Orinoco basin. The Magdalena riparian system provides the largest area of suitable habitat, which also has the highest frequency of captures. Most animals (81.20%) were killed for sale or to share meat in a subsistence base. Hunting is apparently increasing but capture with nets still represents the species' major direct threat. Habitat destruction occurs in all areas. International and national laws protect the species, however, funding is inadequate for effective enforcement of present laws. ?? 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Species of conservation concern

The ecosystems of the Williston Basin provide direct and indirect benefits to society. These benefits include carbon sequestration, flood control, nutrient rich soils for agricultural productivity, and habitat for wildlife. This chapter’s main focus is on the effects of energy development on species that occupy the ecosystems in the Williston Basin. We compiled a list of documented species of conservation concern that are of most interest to Federal regulators and resource managers. Species of concern were either listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act or listed by States as species of concern in Natural Heritage Program checklists or State Wildlife Action Plans. All told, we determined that 357 species of concern likely occupy the Williston Basin. These species represented seven different taxonomic groups: plants (native and nonnative), terrestrial invertebrates, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, and fish and mussels. We reviewed the existing scientific information pertaining to potential effects of energy development on these taxonomic groups. Currently, little is known about the abundance and distribution of many of these species. But some information exists that may be useful in predicting the potential effects of energy development on certain taxonomic groups. Most of this information has been developed through scientific research focused on effects to mammal and bird populations. Effects to other taxonomic groups seems to be understudied. In general, it seems that disturbances and modifications associated with development have the potential to negatively affect a wide range of species; however, many studies produce uncertain results because they are not designed to compare populations before and after energy development takes place. Most of these studies also do not monitor resources over multiple years and thus cannot detect population trends. Likewise, there are few examples of landscape-scale assessments of the cumulative effects of energy development that could be used for species or habitat management purposes. We suggest that more research needs to be completed to measure potential effects to a broad range of species in multiple taxonomic groups. This may require also developing some understanding about the basic ecology of many of the species covered in this report. In concert with this more basic research, we also suggest that more comprehensive assessments of potential negative cumulative effects across the Williston Basin should be developed in an effort to guide more strategic management of biological resources.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make ‘Functional Types’ more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of ‘Plant Functional Types’ (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, i.e. to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages (‘Lineage Functional Types’) will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Global Change Biology↗

Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of communication barriers through interpersonal and electronic communication channels; (3) development of an OBVM external advisory committee; and (4) adoption of characteristics of an organizational culture that promotes flexibility and learning. ??2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗

Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge

Humans are altering the composition of biological communities through a variety of activities that increase rates of species invasions and species extinctions, at all scales, from local to global. These changes in components of the Earth's biodiversity cause concern for ethical and aesthetic reasons, but they also have a strong potential to alter ecosystem properties and the goods and services they provide to humanity. Ecological experiments, observations, and theoretical developments show that ecosystem properties depend greatly on biodiversity in terms of the functional characteristics of organisms present in the ecosystem and the distribution and abundance of those organisms over space and time. Species effects act in concert with the effects of climate, resource availability, and disturbance regimes in influencing ecosystem properties. Human activities can modify all of the above factors; here we focus on modification of these biotic controls. The scientific community has come to a broad consensus on many aspects of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, including many points relevant to management of ecosystems. Further progress will require integration of knowledge about biotic and abiotic controls on ecosystem properties, how ecological communities are structured, and the forces driving species extinctions and invasions. To strengthen links to policy and management, we also need to integrate our ecological knowledge with understanding of the social and economic constraints of potential management practices. Understanding this complexity, while taking strong steps to minimize current losses of species, is necessary for responsible management of Earth's ecosystems and the diverse biota they contain. Based on our review of the scientific literature, we are certain of the following conclusions: 1) Species' functional characteristics strongly influence ecosystem properties. Functional characteristics operate in a variety of contexts, including effects of dominant species, keystone species, ecological engineers, and interactions among species (e.g., competition, facilitation, mutualism, disease, and predation). Relative abundance alone is not always a good predictor of the ecosystem-level importance of a species, as even relatively rare species (e.g., a keystone predator) can strongly influence pathways of energy and material flows. 2) Alteration of biota in ecosystems via species invasions and extinctions caused by human activities has altered ecosystem goods and services in many well-documented cases. Many of these changes are difficult, expensive, or impossible to reverse or fix with technological solutions. 3) The effects of species loss or changes in composition, and the mechanisms by which the effects manifest themselves, can differ among ecosystem properties, ecosystem types, and pathways of potential community change. 4) Some ecosystem properties are initially insensitive to species loss because (a) ecosystems may have multiple species that carry out similar functional roles, (b) some species may contribute relatively little to ecosystem properties, or (c) properties may be primarily controlled by abiotic environmental conditions. 5) More species are needed to insure a stable supply of ecosystem goods and services as spatial and temporal variability increases, which typically occurs as longer time periods and larger areas are considered. We have high confidence in the following conclusions: 1) Certain combinations of species are complementary in their patterns of resource use and can increase average rates of productivity and nutrient retention. At the same time, environmental conditions can influence the importance of complementarity in structuring communities. Identification of which and how many species act in a complementary way in complex communities is just beginning. 2) Susceptibility to invasion by exotic species is strongly influenced by species composition and, under similar environmental conditions, generally decreases with increasing species richness. However, several other factors, such as propagule pressure, disturbance regime, and resource availability also strongly influence invasion success and often override effects of species richness in comparisons across different sites or ecosystems. 3) Having a range of species that respond differently to different environmental perturbations can stabilize ecosystem process rates in response to disturbances and variation in abiotic conditions. Using practices that maintain a diversity of organisms of different functional effect and functional response types will help preserve a range of management options. Uncertainties remain and further research is necessary in the following areas: 1) Further resolution of the relationships among taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and community structure is important for identifying mechanisms of biodiversity effects. 2) Multiple trophic levels are common to ecosystems but have been understudied in biodiversity/ecosystem functioning research. The response of ecosystem properties to varying composition and diversity of consumer organisms is much more complex than responses seen in experiments that vary only the diversity of primary producers. 3) Theoretical work on stability has outpaced experimental work, especially field research. We need long-term experiments to be able to assess temporal stability, as well as experimental perturbations to assess response to and recovery from a variety of disturbances. Design and analysis of such experiments must account for several factors that covary with species diversity. 4) Because biodiversity both responds to and influences ecosystem properties, understanding the feedbacks involved is necessary to integrate results from experimental communities with patterns seen at broader scales. Likely patterns of extinction and invasion need to be linked to different drivers of global change, the forces that structure communities, and controls on ecosystem properties for the development of effective management and conservation strategies. 5) This paper focuses primarily on terrestrial systems, with some coverage of freshwater systems, because that is where most empirical and theoretical study has focused. While the fundamental principles described here should apply to marine systems, further study of that realm is necessary. Despite some uncertainties about the mechanisms and circumstances under which diversity influences ecosystem properties, incorporating diversity effects into policy and management is essential, especially in making decisions involving large temporal and spatial scales. Sacrificing those aspects of ecosystems that are difficult or impossible to reconstruct, such as diversity, simply because we are not yet certain about the extent and mechanisms by which they affect ecosystem properties, will restrict future management options even further. It is incumbent upon ecologists to communicate this need, and the values that can derive from such a perspective, to those charged with economic and policy decision-making.

Ecological Monographs↗

States and rates: Complementary approaches to developing flow‐ecology relationships

In recognition of the influence of flow on riverine habitats and organisms, stream ecologists have devoted considerable effort to the development of quantitative predictive relationships describing ecological responses to flow variability, i.e. flow‐ecology relationships. Methods used to generate flow‐ecology relationships can be thought of as a continuum bookended by pure states approaches on one end and by rates approaches on the other. In pure states approaches, the ecological response is a snapshot of a condition or property (i.e. a state) derived from a single measurement in time. In contrast, ecological responses in rates approaches reflect temporal change (i.e. a rate) and are thus reliant on repeated measurements made over time. Here, we elaborate on the fundamental characteristics of different approaches (pure states, rates and an intermediate approach we call repeated states) for generating flow‐ecology relationships, examine how commonly the different approaches are used in the flow‐ecology literature, conduct an independent analysis to illustrate the different outcomes achieved by applying repeated‐states and rates approaches using a dataset for stream fish diversity in relation to flow magnitude, and identify some of the different ways ecologists are applying rates approaches in flow ecology. Our literature review revealed that repeated‐states approaches (53% of reviewed studies) were used far more commonly than either pure states (19%) or rates (12%) approaches to generate flow‐ecology relationships. The remaining hybrid studies (17%) used both state and rate responses, and thus also relied on repeated measurements over time. Despite frequent collection of data suitable for rates approaches, flow‐ecology relationships have generally been developed using states approaches that relate changes in ecological states to different long‐term average flow conditions, rather than to specific flow sequences over much shorter time intervals. Such flow‐ecology relationships cannot generate temporally specific predictions of ecological responses to changing flow conditions (i.e. the expected change in state following a specific flow sequence), nor can they describe demographic processes underlying observed changes. While there are different scenarios in which a pure or repeated‐states approach would be useful, more frequent use of rates approaches would increase our ability to test flow‐ecology hypotheses and our mechanistic understanding of flow‐ecology relationships.

Freshwater Biology↗

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

Assessment of smolt condition for travel time analysis. Annual report 1988

Estimates of migration rates and travel times of juvenile salmonids within index reaches of the Columbia River basin are collected through the Smolt Monitoring Program for use by the Fish Passage Center. With increased reliance upon travel time estimates in 1988 by the Fish Passage Center, this study was implemented to monitor the biological attributes of juvenile chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead trout 0.- mykiss used for the travel time estimates, The physiological ability of fish to respond to stress was assessed by measuring levels of plasma cortisol, glucose, and chloride before and after a stress-challenge test. Most mid-Columbia and Snake river groups responded normally to the stress challenge exhibiting an increase in plasma glucose and cortisol and a slight decrease in chloride. Fish trucked to release sites were more stressed than those released directly from the hatchery, but most still responded to the stress challenge test normally. An abnormal or extreme stress response occurred when there were deviations from preferred protocol, disease problems at hatcheries, or when fish were trucked over long periods (7h). The development of smoltification was evaluated by measuring gill Na+K+-ATPase, plasma thyroxine, purines, and body morphology. Most groups were similar at the hatcheries but differed as the migration to McNary Dam proceeded. Gill ATPase activity increased 2-3 fold during the first 20 days of migration, after which it changed little. Fish with longer in-river travel times appeared to be more smolted than those which were in the river for a shorter period of time. The prevalence of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) in spring chinook salmon was evaluated using the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and fluorescent antibody technique (FAT). Prevalence of BKD in groups tested using the ELISA method was as high as 99% at some downstream locations. A review of indices is presented as a guide, to the development of an index of smolt condition and preliminary data are presented. An index could be used as a tool to synthesize information on fish condition to assist with management and evaluation of the Water Budget.

Report↗

The assessment and remediation of mercury contaminated sites: A review of current approaches

Remediation of mercury (Hg) contaminated sites has long relied on traditional approaches, such as removal and containment/capping. Here we review contemporary practices in the assessment and remediation of industrial-scale Hg contaminated sites and discuss recent advances. Significant improvements have been made in site assessment, including the use of XRF to rapidly identify the spatial extent of contamination, Hg stable isotope fractionation to identify sources and transformation processes, and solid-phase characterization (XAFS) to evaluate Hg forms. The understanding of Hg bioavailability for methylation has been improved by methods such as sequential chemical extractions and porewater measurements, including the use of diffuse gradient in thin-film (DGT) samplers. These approaches have shown varying success in identifying bioavailable Hg fractions and further study and field applications are needed. The downstream accumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) in biota is a concern at many contaminated sites. Identifying the variables limiting/controlling MeHg production—such as bioavailable inorganic Hg, organic carbon, and/or terminal electron acceptors (e.g. sulfate, iron) is critical. Mercury can be released from contaminated sites to the air and water, both of which are influenced by meteorological and hydrological conditions. Mercury mobilized from contaminated sites is predominantly bound to particles, highly correlated with total sediment solids (TSS), and elevated during stormflow. Remediation techniques to address Hg contamination can include the removal or containment of Hg contaminated materials, the application of amendments to reduce mobility and bioavailability, landscape/waterbody manipulations to reduce MeHg production, and food web manipulations through stocking or extirpation to reduce MeHg accumulated in desired species. These approaches often rely on knowledge of the Hg forms/speciation at the site, and utilize physical, chemical, thermal and biological methods to achieve remediation goals. Overall, the complexity of Hg cycling allows many different opportunities to reduce/mitigate impacts, which creates flexibility in determining suitable and logistically feasible remedies.

Science of the Total Environment↗

A multiscale, hierarchical model of pulse dynamics in arid-land ecosystems

Ecological processes in arid lands are often described by the pulse-reserve paradigm, in which rain events drive biological activity until moisture is depleted, leaving a reserve. This paradigm is frequently applied to processes stimulated by one or a few precipitation events within a growing season. Here we expand the original framework in time and space and include other pulses that interact with rainfall. This new hierarchical pulse-dynamics framework integrates space and time through pulse-driven exchanges, interactions, transitions, and transfers that occur across individual to multiple pulses extending from micro to watershed scales. Climate change will likely alter the size, frequency, and intensity of precipitation pulses in the future, and arid-land ecosystems are known to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Thus, a more comprehensive understanding of arid-land pulse dynamics is needed to determine how these ecosystems will respond to, and be shaped by, increased climate variability.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati↗

Achieving water quality goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A comprehensive evaluation of system response

A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) includes an evaluation of why progress toward meeting the TMDL and water quality standards has been slower than expected and offers options for how progress can be accelerated. This report is a summation of a three year investigation into the 40 year effort to reduce nutrient loads to Chesapeake Bay. History The effort began as a STAC independent initiative in March 2019, after Kurt Stephenson, Zach Easton, and Brian Benham proposed the idea of a report that would identify gaps and uncertainties in system response—physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic—that impact efforts designed to attain water quality standards in Chesapeake Bay. As STAC Chair at the time, Benham facilitated the development of a collaborative process that would engage the entire committee. As a first step in approaching the long causal chain that links management actions to their eventual impact on water quality and living resources, workgroups were formed around the subsystems of this chain: nutrient and sediment reductions (watershed), water quality response to nutrient and sediment reductions (estuary) and living resource response to water quality (living resources). Each of these workgroups generated an independent document with a self-determined scope (i.e., workgroups were afforded flexibility to address issues beyond the original objectives). Because the content of each document was both unique and substantial, STAC chose to publish them as stand-alone documents with authorship attribution. In the second step, a steering committee developed a series of framing questions to guide the preparation of this report that would meet the objective of identifying gaps and uncertainties in achieving the Bay TMDL and water quality standards. Coeditors Stephenson and Wardrop, supported to great extent by a subgroup of the Steering Committee (Leonard Shabman, Zach Easton, Jeremy Testa, William Dennison, Kenny Rose, and Mark Monaco) were tasked with assembling ideas and contributions to write a single draft text, drawing material from the aforementioned resource documents, STAC and Chesapeake Bay Program reports, the scientific literature, and a limited amount of additional analyses performed in collaboration with Bay Program scientists. The resulting report was then submitted for several reviews by both steering committee members and the membership at-large to produce a consensus report.

Maryland, Virginia↗