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Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground‐based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi‐state mark–recapture methods using a hierarchical N ‐mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state‐space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk ( Cervus elaphus nelsoni ) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian N‐mixture model using multiple sources of data on abundance, movement and survival to estimate the population size of a mobile species that uses remote conservation areas. The model improves accuracy of inference relative to previous methods for estimating abundance of open populations.

Ecological Applications↗

Summary of reported agriculture and irrigation water use in Craighead County, Arkansas, 1991

This report summarizes the 1991 water-use reporting through the Conservation District Office in Craighead County, Arkansas. The number of withdrawal registrations for Craighead County was 2,384 (2,187 groundwater and 197 surface water). Water withdrawals reported during the registration process total 1.45 Mgal/d (0.50 Mgal/d groundwater and 0.95 Mgal/d surface water) for agriculture and 287.20 Mgal/d (261.52 Mgal/d groundwater and 25.68 Mgal/d surface water) for irrigation. The registration reports for 1991 indicate that this water was applied to 168,003 acres of land to irrigate rice, sorghum, corn, soybeans, milo, cotton, hay, vegetables, nuts, and sod as well as for the agricultural uses of animal aquaculture and sports clubs.

Open-File Report↗

Summary of reported agriculture and irrigation water use in Cross County, Arkansas, 1991

This report summarizes the 1991 water-use reporting through the Conservation District Office in Cross County, Arkansas. The number of withdrawal registrations for Cross County was 2,506 (2,314 groundwater and 192 surface water). Water withdrawals reported during the registration process total 2.01 Mgal/d (1.85 Mgal/d groundwater and 0.16 Mgal/d surface water) for agriculture and 404.04 Mgal/d (377.08 Mgal/d groundwater and 26.96 Mgal/d surface water) for irrigation. The registration reports for 1991 indicate that this water was applied to 218,152 acres of land to irrigate rice, sorghum, corn, soybeans, milo, cash grains, cotton, hay, and vegetables as well as for the agricultural use of animal aquaculture and ducks.

Open-File Report↗

Applied aspects of locomotion and biomechanics

Locomotion is the act and process of moving from place to place, which is fundamental to the life history of all mobile organisms. While the field of biomechanics encompasses the study of the physical constraints of what animals are capable of, ecological contexts require an integrated view that includes ecology and behavior. This chapter provides an overview of some of the areas where locomotion and biomechanics of fish movement interface with the rapidly evolving changes that humans impose on aquatic environments. These changes include fundamental alterations to the environment such as altered flows, fragmentation of riverine habitats, and invasive species, but also direct interactions that occur with capture fisheries. We explore each of these areas, considering both challenges and opportunities informed by the study of locomotion and biomechanics, emphasizing how this field can contribute to conservation of fishes in the Anthropocene. We then turn to technology, where important advances are aiding in our understanding of fish movement. In some cases those advances have themselves led to novel technologies, where biomimetic robots and related devices offer novel opportunities, both for conservation and for other pursuits.

Book chapter↗

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

Seawater consumption and water flux in the common dolphin Delphinus delphis

Two captive female common dolphins (59 kg and 55 kg) were given intravenous injections of tritiated water (HTO) and sodium-22 (Na-22) after the first day of a 5-day fast. Blood samples were collected each of the next 4 days. Total body water was 37% of total body weight, and the mean rate of water turnover was 77 ml∙kg⁻¹day⁻¹. This low value for total body water of a mammal is due to the high blubber content of the body. Exchangeable sodium levels were 37 and 40 meq∙kg⁻¹, with turnover rate of 6 meq∙kg⁻¹ day⁻¹. Skin was shown to be impermeable to sodium, so the only sodium source for these animals was seawater . Seawater drunk at a rate of 12 and 13 ml∙ kg⁻¹day⁻¹ accounted for the observed sodium turnover and about 1/6 of the total water turnover. Estimated water turnover from food and seawater consumption is the same as total water turnover predicted for terrestrial mammals of the same weight. However, the low body water content of these dolphins indicates that they have a high fractional rate of water turnover. Most of the body water turnover is due to the permeability of the skin. The rapid fractional water turnover, seawater consumption , and dilute urine indicate that conservation is not a major aspect of the fasting dolphin's water budget. Feeding dolphins , however, may benefit from the urinary osmotic space that seawater provides for the urea produced by protein catabolism.

Ecological and Evolutionary Physiology↗

Abundance-occupancy patterns in a riverine fish assemblage

The interspecific relationships between abundance and site occupancy have been widely studied in plants and animals, but principally in terrestrial systems. With few exceptions, a positive abundance–occupancy relationship has been reported. Few publications have included freshwater fish, possibly suggesting a general lack of abundance–occupancy patterns for this taxonomic group. We examined the relationship between abundance and the extent of site occupancy by 145 species of freshwater fish, including nine non-indigenous species, sampled over 85 sites spread across the Duck River Basin, Tennessee, U.S.A. A distinct ( r 2 = 0.79) positive abundance–occupancy curve was observed, with curves differing relative to feeding and size guilds, but not relative to environmental tolerance, conservation status (i.e. listed/non-listed), or origin (i.e. indigenous/non-indigenous). The patterns observed are consistent with those reported in many studies of terrestrial taxa. The existence of positive abundance–occupancy relationships in stream fish has at least two major implications for fish conservation. First, species that decrease in occupancy due to anthropogenic disturbances are likely to decrease in abundance, facing inflated prospects for local extinction. Second, occupancy alone may be used to index community status and the need for, or success of, conservation activities.

Tennessee↗

Understanding environmental DNA detection probabilities: A case study using a stream-dwelling char Salvelinus fontinalis

Environmental DNA sampling (eDNA) has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting aquatic animals. Previous research suggests that eDNA methods are substantially more sensitive than traditional sampling. However, the factors influencing eDNA detection and the resulting sampling costs are still not well understood. Here we use multiple experiments to derive independent estimates of eDNA production rates and downstream persistence from brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) in streams. We use these estimates to parameterize models comparing the false negative detection rates of eDNA sampling and traditional backpack electrofishing. We find that using the protocols in this study eDNA had reasonable detection probabilities at extremely low animal densities (e.g., probability of detection 0.18 at densities of one fish per stream kilometer) and very high detection probabilities at population-level densities (e.g., probability of detection > 0.99 at densities of ≥ 3 fish per 100 m). This is substantially more sensitive than traditional electrofishing for determining the presence of brook trout and may translate into important cost savings when animals are rare. Our findings are consistent with a growing body of literature showing that eDNA sampling is a powerful tool for the detection of aquatic species, particularly those that are rare and difficult to sample using traditional methods.

Montana↗

Summary of reported agriculture and irrigation water use in Phillips County, Arkansas, 1991

This report summarizes the 1991 water-use reporting through the Conservation District Office in Phillips County, Arkansas. The number of withdrawal registrations for Phillips County was 1,109 (1,103 groundwater and 6 surface water). Water withdrawals reported during the registration process total 0.15 Mgal/d (0.15 Mgal/d groundwater and none from surface water) for agriculture and 123.75 Mgal/d (122.66 Mgal/d groundwater and 1.09 Mgal/d surface water) for irrigation. The registration reports for 1991 indicate that this water was applied to 96,502 acres of land to irrigate wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, milo, cotton, hay, vegetables, grapes, nuts, fruit trees, and sod, as well as for the agricultural use of animal aquaculture.

Open-File Report↗

Summary of reported agriculture and irrigation water use in Prairie County, Arkansas, 1991

This report summarizes the 1991 water-use reporting through the Conservation District Office in Prairie County, Arkansas. The number of withdrawal registrations for Prairie County was 2,187 (1,786 groundwater and 401 surface water). Water with- drawals reported during the registration process total 26.93 Mgal/d (26.84 Mgal/d groundwater and 0.09 Mgal/d surface water) for agriculture and 191.08 Mgal/d (138.79 Mgal/d groundwater and 52.29 Mgal/d surface water) for irrigation. The registration reports for 1991 indicate that this water was applied to 144,956 acres of land to irrigate rice, corn, soybeans, milo, cash grains, unknown crop, cotton hay, berries, and fruit trees as well as for the agricultural uses of animal aquaculture, minnows, timber, and ducks.

Open-File Report↗

Characterizing Golden Eagle risk to lead and anticoagulant rodenticide exposure: A review

Contaminant exposure is among the many threats to Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) populations throughout North America, particularly lead poisoning and anticoagulant rodenticides (AR). These threats may act in concert with others (e.g., lead poisoning and trauma associated with striking objects) to exacerbate risk. Golden Eagles are skilled hunters but also exploit scavenging opportunities, making them particularly susceptible to contaminant exposure from ingesting tissues of poisoned or shot animals. Lead poisoning has long been recognized as an important source of mortality for Golden Eagles throughout North America. More recently, ARs have been associated with both sublethal and lethal effects in raptor species worldwide. In this review, we examine the current state of knowledge for lead and AR exposure in Golden Eagles, drawing from the broader raptor contaminant ecology literature. We examine lead and AR sources within Golden Eagle habitats, exposure routes and toxicity, effects on individuals and populations, synergistic effects, and data and information needs. Continued research addressing data needs and information gaps will help with Golden Eagle conservation planning.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

Pheromone pollution from invasive sea lamprey misguides a native confamilial

Animals living in the Anthropocene search for mates facing a barrage of pollutants. Few studies consider pheromones from invasive species as pollution, but their central role in the lives of many animals indicates cross-reaction among historically allopatric relatives has potentially damaging impacts. We hypothesized the sex pheromone of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), an invasive fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes, misguides mate search in native chestnut lamprey (Ichthyomyzon castaneus). In a field test, 100 % of female I. castaneus chose male odourants from P. marinus over conspecifics. Chemical analysis of water in which males were held confirmed both species signal with 3-keto petromyzonol sulfate but revealed higher release rates in P. marinus. Our results indicate sex pheromones from invasive species can be an influential type of pollution and underscore the conservation implications of studies on pheromone evolution.

Current Zoology↗

Management of wetlands for wildlife

Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems that provide habitat for a diversity of wildlife species and afford various ecosystem services. Managing wetlands effectively requires an understanding of basic ecosystem processes, animal and plant life history strategies, and principles of wildlife management. Management techniques that are used differ depending on target species, coastal versus interior wetlands, and available infrastructure, resources, and management objectives. Ideally, wetlands are managed as a complex, with many successional stages and hydroperiods represented in close proximity. Managing wetland wildlife typically involves manipulating water levels and vegetation in the wetland, and providing an upland buffer. Commonly, levees and water control structures are used to manipulate wetland hydrology in combination with other management techniques (e.g., disking, burning, herbicide application) to create desired plant and wildlife responses. In the United States, several conservation programs are available to assist landowners in developing wetland management infrastructure on their property. Managing wetlands to increase habitat quality for wildlife is critical, considering this ecosystem is one of the most imperiled in the world.

Book chapter↗

California condors

The California condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ) is a member of the vulture family. With a wingspan of about 3 m (9 ft) and weighing about 9 kg (20 lb), it spends much of its time in soaring flight visually seeking dead animals as food. The California condor has always been rare (Wilbur 1978; Pattee and Wilbur 1989). Although probably numbering in the thousands during the Pleistocene epoch in North America, its numbers likely declined dramatically with the extinction of most of North America's large mammals 10,000 years ago. Condors probably numbered in the hundreds and were nesting residents in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California around 1800. In 1939 the condor population was estimated at 60-100 birds, and its home range was reduced to the mountains and foothills of California, south of San Francisco and north of Los Angeles. Conservation to halt the condor's decline included establishing the Sisquoc (1937) and Sespe (1947) condor sanctuaries within the Los Padres National Forest, obtaining fully protected status under California Fish and Game Code (1953), placement on California's first state endangered species list (1971), and, finally, being listed by the federal government under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Wilbur 1978). The success of these efforts could not be judged, however, because verifiable status and trends data did not become available until 1982. By using these data, we confirmed the decline in condor numbers over the past 50 years was even greater than thought.

Book chapter↗

Chronic wasting disease—Research by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners

Introduction Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is the only transmissible spongiform encephalopathy, a class of invariably fatal neurodegenerative mammalian diseases associated with a misfolded cellular prion protein found in wild free-ranging animals. Because it has a long incubation period, affected animals in Cervidae (the deer family; referred to as “cervids”) may not show signs of disease for several years. While signs are not specific to CWD, affected cervids (deer, elk, moose, and reindeer) show changes in appearance (such as progressive weight loss) and changes in behavior such as stumbling, tremors, and teeth grinding. CWD can be transmitted by direct contact or through a contaminated environment. The causative prion agent is highly resistant to degradation. In recent decades, CWD has transitioned from a novel, obscure prion disease of cervids with limited geographical distribution, to a disease that poses substantial ecological, agricultural, and economic risks across large regions of North America. Since its discovery in free-ranging elk and deer populations in the western United States in the 1980s, CWD has been reported in captive or free-ranging cervid populations in 26 States, 3 Canadian Provinces, the Republic of South Korea, Finland, Sweden, and Norway. In addition, the proportion of CWD-infected animals is increasing in many areas where the disease is already established. In some heavily affected areas, total cervid numbers have decreased over time due to CWD, which suggests that these cervid populations may not be sustainable in the long-term. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts wildlife disease surveillance and research to support management of CWD-affected species and their habitats. The scientific information is relevant to governmental agencies that manage wildlife and their habitats including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other Federal, State, and Tribal agencies as well as conservation partners (non-governmental organizations, businesses, and private landowners). Each project description in this report (1–30) includes the non-USGS collaborators (Federal, State, Tribal agencies, universities) and a USGS point of contact (principal investigator). If there are USGS publications associated with the project, a publication list is provided at the end of each project description.

Alberta, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas↗

Restoration of bighorn sheep metapopulations in and near 15 national parks: Conservation of a severely fragmented species; Volume I, Planning, problem definition, findings, and restoration

Bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) were historically a ubiquitous species. Prior to the arrival of Europeans, they were seemingly widespread in nearly all steep habitats in the mountains, foothills, river breaks, and prairie badlands of the western United States. However, since catastrophic declines in the late 1800s and early 1900s, most extant populations have existed as small, isolated groups in a highly fragmented distribution. Stochastic events such as seasonal weather change or population fluctuations render these small populations more prone to extirpation than larger populations. Three different subspecies of bighorn sheep were eliminated from 14 of 18 National Park System (NPS) units in the 6-state Intermountain Region of the western United States (Singer 1994). In 1990, when this restoration was initiated, only 4 (18%) of 22 discrete park populations or metapopulations were considered large enough (300-500 animals) to be secure for long-term management. Five (23%) other populations numbered 100-299 animals and 3 (14%) populations numbered 75-99 animals. But, the remaining 10 populations (45%) were either extirpated (n = 2), remnant populations (n = 5, populations of 7-10 animals), or vulnerable to extirpation (n = 3, populations of less than 50 animals). Restoration prior to 1991-96 was largely completed in one NPS unit, but was incomplete in the remaining units. Most bighorn sheep are not federally listed as endangered or threatened species, although the California peninsular population of desert bighorn sheep was recently listed as endangered. The bighorn sheep is a rare or uncommon species that is declining in many parts of its range but is abundant in other areas and still relatively easy to study and manage. The Secretary of the Department of the Interior, Bruce Babbitt, directed the Biological Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in 1993 (when this agency was still the National Biological Service) to research and recover species that were declining to avoid expensive and controversial federal listing. Because the capture and moving of the species are still relatively uncomplicated and because some source stocks are available, aggressive restoration in 15 National Park System units in the former Rocky Mountain Region was recommended in 1990. This report details the 7-year restoration of bighorn sheep to all currently suitable historic habitats in the national parks of the former Rocky Mountain Region (now the Intermountain and Midwest regions of the National Park Service). The purpose of the first phase of the restoration during 1991-93 was to conduct research and population surveys and to formulate the restoration plans. The purpose of the second phase of the initiative during 1994-97 was to conduct GIS-based habitat and biological assessments of prospective restoration sites, write restoration plans, and restore and monitor the released bighorn sheep.

Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Uta↗

Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). In the twentieth century, freshwater fishes had the highest extinction rate worldwide among vertebrates. The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

BioScience↗

Development of a genotyping protocol for Mojave desert tortoise scat

Noninvasive fecal genotyping can be a useful tool for population monitoring of elusive species. We tested extraction protocols on scat samples from the threatened Mojave Desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, to evaluate whether scat-based mark–recapture and population genetic monitoring studies are feasible.We extracted DNA from G. agassizii scat samples collected in California and Nevada using several extraction protocols and evaluated the reliability of resulting genotypes using quality scores, maximum likelihood reliability estimates, and paired scat and blood genotypes from the same individuals. Finally, we assessed probabilities of identity and sibship, and locus amplification quality, and calculated genotyping error rates for 19 microsatellite loci to determine the best set of loci to use with G. agassizii scat extractions. We found that genotype quality depended more on the sample quality than on the extraction method, and that the Qiagen DNeasy Plant Mini extraction kit is an efficient method for extracting tortoise DNA from tortoise scat. We identified 6 G. agassizii microsatellite loci that can be used to generate a unique molecular tag for individual tortoises. We characterized the reliability of an additional 13 microsatellite loci for use in population genetic analyses where additional power at the expense of some increase in error may be advantageous. As proof of concept, with very low error rates, we matched 3 opportunistically collected scat samples to blood genotypes from animals captured during population surveys within the study area and discovered at least 3 new individuals, even after 2 yrs of extensive survey work. These results suggest that genotyping of field-collected scat can complement existing methods used in long-term demographic and movement studies of G. agassizii and other, closely related, tortoise species.

California↗