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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California

The accumulation of magmatic CO 2 beneath low-permeability barriers may lead to the formation of CO 2 -rich gas reservoirs within volcanic systems. Such accumulation is often evidenced by high surface CO 2 emissions that fluctuate over time. The temporal variability in surface degassing is believed in part to reflect a complex interplay between deep magmatic degassing and the permeability of degassing pathways. A better understanding of the dynamics of CO 2 degassing is required to improve monitoring and hazards mitigation in these systems. Owing to the availability of long-term records of CO 2 emissions rates and seismicity, Mammoth Mountain in California constitutes an ideal site towards such predictive understanding. Mammoth Mountain is characterized by intense soil CO 2 degassing (up to ∼1000 t d −1 ) and tree kill areas that resulted from leakage of CO 2 from a CO 2 -rich gas reservoir located in the upper ∼4 km. The release of CO 2 -rich fluids from deeper basaltic intrusions towards the reservoir induces seismicity and potentially reactivates faults connecting the reservoir to the surface. While this conceptual model is well-accepted, there is still a debate whether temporally variable surface CO 2 fluxes directly reflect degassing of intrusions or variations in fault permeability. Here, we report the first large-scale numerical model of fluid and heat transport for Mammoth Mountain. We discuss processes (i) leading to the initial formation of the CO 2 -rich gas reservoir prior to the occurrence of high surface CO 2 degassing rates and (ii) controlling current CO 2 degassing at the surface. Although the modeling settings are site-specific, the key mechanisms discussed in this study are likely at play at other volcanic systems hosting CO 2 -rich gas reservoirs. In particular, our model results illustrate the role of convection in stripping a CO 2 -rich gas phase from a rising hydrothermal fluid and leading to an accumulation of a large mass of CO 2 (∼10 7 –10 8 t) in a shallow gas reservoir. Moreover, we show that both, short-lived (months to years) and long-lived (hundreds of years) events of magmatic fluid injection can lead to critical pressures within the reservoir and potentially trigger fault reactivation. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that observed temporal fluctuations in surface degassing are only indirectly controlled by variations in magmatic degassing and are mainly the result of temporally variable fault permeability. Finally, we suggest that long-term CO 2 emission monitoring, seismic tomography and coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling are important for CO 2 -related hazard mitigation.

California↗

USGS2009

Estimation of Unsaturated Zone Traveltimes for Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Using a Source-Responsive Preferential-Flow Model

Traveltimes for contaminant transport by water from a point in the unsaturated zone to the saturated zone are a concern at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain in the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. Where nuclear tests were conducted in the unsaturated zone, contaminants must traverse hundreds of meters of variably saturated rock before they enter the saturated zone in the carbonate rock, where the regional groundwater system has the potential to carry them substantial distances to a location of concern. The unsaturated-zone portion of the contaminant transport path may cause a significant delay, in addition to the time required to travel within the saturated zone, and thus may be important in the overall evaluation of the potential hazard from contamination. Downward contaminant transport through the unsaturated zone occurs through various processes and pathways; this can lead to a broad distribution of contaminant traveltimes, including exceedingly slow and unexpectedly fast extremes. Though the bulk of mobile contaminant arrives between the time-scale end members, the fastest contaminant transport speed, in other words the speed determined by the combination of possible processes and pathways that would bring a measureable quantity of contaminant to the aquifer in the shortest time, carries particular regulatory significance because of its relevance in formulating the most conservative hazard-prevention scenarios. Unsaturated-zone flow is usually modeled as a diffusive process responding to gravity and pressure gradients as mediated by the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the materials traversed. The mathematical formulation of the diffuse-flow concept is known as Richards' equation, which when coupled to a solute transport equation, such as the advection-dispersion equation, provides a framework to simulate contaminant migration in the unsaturated zone. In recent decades awareness has increased that much fluid flow and contaminant transport within the unsaturated zone takes place as preferential flow, faster than would be predicted by the coupled Richards' and advection-dispersion equations with hydraulic properties estimated by traditional means. At present the hydrologic community has not achieved consensus as to whether a modification of Richards' equation, or a fundamentally different formulation, would best quantify preferential flow. Where the fastest contaminant transport speed is what needs to be estimated, there is the possibility of simplification of the evaluation process. One way of doing so is by a two-step process in which the first step is to evaluate whether significant preferential flow and solute transport is possible for the media and conditions of concern. The second step is to carry out (a) a basic Richards' and advection-dispersion equation analysis if it is concluded that preferential flow is not possible or (b) an analysis that considers only the fastest possible preferential-flow processes, if preferential flow is possible. For the preferential-flow situation, a recently published model describable as a Source-Responsive Preferential-Flow (SRPF) model is an easily applied option. This report documents the application of this two-step process to flow through the thick unsaturated zones of Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain in the Nevada Test Site. Application of the SRPF model involves distinguishing between continuous and intermittent water supply to preferential flow paths. At Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain this issue is complicated by the fact that contaminant travel begins at a location deep in the subsurface, where there may be perched water that may or may not act like a continuous supply, depending on such features as the connectedness of fractures and the nature of impeding layers. We have treated this situation by hypothesizing both continuous and intermittent scenarios for contaminant transport to the carbonate aquifer and reporting estimation of the fastest speed for both of th

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Calibration of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model to estimate annual survival, movement, and food consumption by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the restoration reach of the Trinity River, California, 2006–18

Executive Summary The Trinity River is managed in two sections: (1) from the upper 64-kilometer “restoration reach” downstream from Lewiston Dam to the confluence with the North Fork Trinity River, and (2) the 120-kilometer lower Trinity River downstream from the restoration reach. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) has been previously applied to these reaches and the Klamath River. To estimate fish growth, past S3 calibration efforts in the Trinity and Klamath Rivers used maximum likelihood methods that considered only the abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) passing a fish trap to estimate survival and movement parameters, but not fish consumption. Previous calibrations did not estimate the average proportion of maximum consumption ( C y ) when estimating survival ( S y ) and movement ( M 0 y ) parameters across years ( y ) of data, but because no other information was available in the literature a fixed value of C y =0.66 was assumed. Therefore, the goal of this report is to present an alternative approach that calibrates the S3 model to multivariate data (that is, abundance and size), enabling the estimation of the average proportion of maximum consumption, in conjunction with survival and movement parameters for a particular migration year. We fit the S3 model to individual years of weekly trap abundance estimates and mean fish sizes (fork length) at the Pear Tree Gulch (hereafter referred to as Pear Tree) fish trap representing the restoration reach. We used the Earth Mover’s Distance (EMD) as the objective value to be minimized in parameter optimization. This approach estimated survival, movement, and consumption parameters for each migration year. Because we had information on the abundance of natural and hatchery produced juvenile salmon at the fish traps, we estimated survival and movement for natural and hatchery fish. S3 is a deterministic life-stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon. A key theme of the model is that river discharge affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the restoration reach of the Trinity River was classified into 356 meso-habitat units comprised of runs, riffles, and pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily discharge, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity time series were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg maturation and survival, and in turn, juvenile movement, growth, and survival. We estimated movement, survival, and consumption parameters by calibrating the model to 12 years of weekly juvenile abundance estimates and fish sizes at the Pear Tree fish trap near the downstream end of the restoration reach. We estimated parameters for 12 years that included a wide range of female spawner abundances (1,414–11,494) and water year types (critically dry–extremely wet). We contrast the estimated parameters to the corresponding number of female spawners and the total annual volume of water discharged for the Trinity River (Trinity River Restoration Program; https://www.trrp.net/restoration/flows/summary/ ). The calibration consisted of replicating historical conditions as closely as possible (for example, discharge; temperature; spawner abundance, spawning location and timing, and hatchery releases), and then running the model to predict weekly abundance passing the trap location from each brood year of adults and subsequent migration year of their juvenile progeny. Because density-dependent movement was favored in past evaluations, we estimated S3 parameters based on density-independent survival and density-dependent movement. Likewise, each year’s estimated survival parameter for natural ( S N y ) and hatchery ( S H y ) fish may be interpreted as the mean daily survival probability from emergence or hatchery release to the Pear Tree fish trap. Under density dependence, the estimated movement parameter for natural ( M 0N y ) and hatchery ( M 0H y ) fish represents the intercept of the Beverton-Holt model; the probability of remaining in a habitat at near-zero abundance. We estimated C y by using EMD and incorporating abundance and fish size into model calibration. Average daily proportions of maximum consumption, , across the years were generally high (=0.640; standard deviation (SD) SD=0.176), suggesting that fish were feeding at about two-thirds of expected maximum consumption rates. This average proportion of maximum consumption,is very similar to what has been assumed (=0.66) in previous Trinity and Klamath River S3 calibration and simulation efforts. In 2017, we estimated the lowest C y , suggesting lower average consumption for juvenile salmon in high-discharge water years. When this high discharge year was excluded, there was no apparent trend in C y with annual water volume. Estimates of survival showed little trend over the range in spawner abundances, but a trend towards higher natural and hatchery fish survival with higher annual volumes of water was apparent. Over the 12 years, the average survival of hatchery fish was =0.888 (SD=0.079) and the average survival natural fish was=0.969 (SD=0.01). With respect to fish movement, we estimated higher M 0N y and M 0H y with higher annual volumes of water in the Trinity River. Higher M N0 y or M H0 y suggest greater probability of remaining in a habitat at low fish densities, with potential for density-dependent processes in movement to occur. The highest M 0N y = 0.676 was estimated during brood year 2012, and the overall average for natural fish was =0.276 (SD=0.188) and for hatchery fish was=0.467 (SD=0.235). Under the Beverton-Holt model, as M 0N y or M 0H y approach zero, there is less capacity for change in fish movement as fish density increases. The S3 model was initialized with only the spatiotemporal distribution of spawners, so it performed well at capturing the essential outmigration features that are ultimately governed by rates of growth, movement, and mortality. We used a new optimization method that could accommodate multivariate data on abundance and fish size collected at the Pear Tree fish trap, enabling the calibration of S3 to estimate five parameters for 12 separate years of data. Incorporating weekly fish size data for each year in our parameter optimization process made the estimation of C y possible and represents a step forward in the fitting of the S3 model to fish trap data for the purposes of parameter calibration and the estimation of growth parameters with respect to annual conditions. We identified lack of fit and adding important effects into the S3 model may improve the S3 estimation and simulation of water scenarios. The Trinity River Restoration Program (TRRP) Science Advisory Board recommended that the TRRP focus on developing core elements of a decision support system (DSS; Buffington and others, 2014). Toward that end, the habitat and S3 models described in this report are both core elements of the DSS. The structure of S3 makes it a particularly useful fish production model for the DSS because population dynamics are sensitive to (1) water temperature, (2) daily discharge management, and (3) habitat quality and quantity. Each of these variables are key management parameters under consideration in the TRRP. As such, the S3 model may provide valuable insights into the potentially variable effects of different management decisions on the Trinity River.

California↗

USGS2014

Withdrawal and consumption of water by thermoelectric power plants in the United States, 2010

Estimates of water use at thermoelectric plants were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey based on linked heat and water budgets, and complement reported thermoelectric water withdrawals and consumption. The heat- and water-budget models produced withdrawal and consumption estimates, including thermodynamically plausible ranges of minimum and maximum withdrawal and consumption, for 1,290 water-using plants in the United States for 2010. Total estimated withdrawal for 2010 was about 129 billion gallons per day (Bgal/d), and total estimated consumption was about 3.5 Bgal/d. In contrast, total withdrawal reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA), was about 24 percent higher than the modeled estimates, and total EIA-reported consumption was about 8 percent lower. Most thermoelectric generation in 2010 was not associated with thermodynamically plausible EIA-reported values of both withdrawal and consumption. An analysis of 2005 and 2010 EIA-reported water use indicated that withdrawal and consumption declined 18 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Alternative water types (types other than freshwater) accounted for approximately 25 percent of all withdrawals in 2010, most of which occurred at plants with once-through cooling systems using saline and brackish tidal waters. Differences among withdrawal and consumption coefficients based on EIA-reported water use for 2005 and 2010 and heat-budget model results for 2010 reveal opportunities for improving consistency and accuracy of reporting of water-use information at the plant scale.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Brunswick Area, Georgia, for 2004 and 2015, and selected groundwater-management scenarios

The Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) is the principal water source for industrial and public supply in Glynn County, Georgia. Wells in active pumping centers that tap the UFA for industries near the city of Brunswick have created an upward hydraulic-head gradient in the Floridan aquifer system, which has allowed high chloride (saline) groundwater from the Fernandina permeable zone of the Lower Floridan aquifer (LFA) to migrate upward into freshwater zones. Chloride concentrations of more than 250 milligrams per liter—the State and Federal secondary drinking-water standard—have been measured in a 2-square-mile area near downtown Brunswick. An existing regional U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW-2000) was modified using greater horizontal and vertical resolution to enable more detailed simulation of the effects of pumping in the vicinity of chloride contamination. Modifications to the regional model consisted of (1) limiting grid size to a maximum of 500 feet (ft) per side in the vicinity of the chloride plume; (2) representing the upper and lower Brunswick aquifers with distinct model layers; (3) similarly, representing upper and lower water-bearing zones of the UFA with distinct model layers in Glynn and Camden Counties, Ga.; and (4) establishing new hydraulic-property geographic zones in the UFA within Glynn County. The revised groundwater-flow model was calibrated to steady-state conditions that were assumed to exist during 2000 and 2004. The calibration and framework of the revised groundwater-flow model were documented in a separate report. For the current study, steady-state conditions were calibrated using October 2015 pumping rates in the Brunswick/Glynn County area as a 2015 Base Case. The 2015 Base Case simulation was used as the basis to evaluate seven groundwater-management scenarios in the Brunswick/Glynn County area. Seven groundwater management-scenarios were developed on the basis of short- and long-term groundwater-use projections for the UFA in the Brunswick/Glynn County area. Scenarios A and B simulated additional pumping in the upper water-bearing zone (UWBZ) of the UFA at existing public-supply wells located near a chloride plume and planned public-supply wells to be constructed north of downtown Brunswick. Scenario C simulated a shutdown at Brunswick Cellulose Inc. and Pinova Inc. and the resulting deactivation of nine production wells, with a combined total pumping of 31.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for the 2015 Base Case simulation. Scenario D (three scenarios) simulated 12.5, 25, and 50 percent (designated Scenarios D1, D2, and D3) of the total pumping of 31.3 Mgal/d at Brunswick Cellulose and Pinova. The objective of Scenario D was to determine pumping rates that may reverse groundwater-flow directions toward the Brunswick Cellulose well field and potentially allow groundwater with higher chloride concentration to migrate toward nearby public-supply wells. Scenario E simulated an additional pumping of 5 Mgal/d from the UWBZ of the UFA at a recently constructed production well within the Brunswick Cellulose well field. Backward particle-tracking (MODPATH) analysis in public-supply wells located just outside the chloride plume to the north shows that predominant groundwater-flow directions are from the northeast toward the Brunswick Cellulose well field. The analysis covered 20- and 50-year periods for the 2015 Base Case and Scenario C simulations with 100 percent of backtracked particles remaining in the UWBZ and lower water-bearing zone of the UFA. Groundwater-flow directions are characterized by some vertical movement and dominant horizontal movement away from the chloride plume in the northern Brunswick area. For the 2015 Base Case simulation, the mean rate of particle movement ranged from 268 to 413 feet per year. For the Scenario C simulation, the mean rate of particle movement ranged from 89 to 182 feet per year with 50 percent of particles migrating from the chloride plume area. The rate of particle movement is influenced most by the horizontal hydraulic-head gradient in the UWBZ of the UFA. The revised groundwater-flow model is subject to the limitations documented in the original model. In addition, the values used for the specified-head boundaries in the Floridan aquifer system for the 2004 calibrated model were based on the sparse data available and were not changed for the 2015 update to the model. These model boundaries control 80 percent of the inflows and about 60 percent of the outflows. Composite-scaled sensitivities of the model parameters indicate the revised model is most sensitive to pumping rates, followed by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the UFA for zones along coastal Georgia.

Georgia↗

USGS2004

Assigning boundary conditions to the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) model using results from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM)

The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) requires the testing and evaluation of different water-management scenarios for southern Florida. As part of CERP, the South Florida Water Management District is using its regional hydrologic model, the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), to evaluate different hydrologic scenarios. The SFWMM was designed specifically for the inland freshwater areas in southern Florida, and extends only slightly into Florida Bay. Thus, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) model, which is an integrated surface-water and ground-water model designed to simulate flows, stages, and salinities in the southern Everglades and Florida Bay. Modifications to the SICS boundary conditions allow the local-scale SICS model to be linked to the regional-scale SFWMM. The linked model will be used to quantify the effects of restoration alternatives on flows, stages, and salinities in the SICS area. This report describes the procedure for linking the SICS model with the SFWMM. The linkage is shown to work by comparing the results of a linked 5-year simulation with the results from a simulation in which the model boundaries are assigned using field data. The surface-water module of the SICS model is driven by areal influences and lateral boundaries. The areal influences (wind, rainfall, and evapotranspiration) remain the same when the SICS model is modified to link to the SFWMM. Four types of lateral boundaries (discharge, water level, no flow, and salinity) are used in the SICS model. Two of three discharge boundaries (at Taylor Slough Bridge and C-111 Canal) in the current SICS model domain are converted to water-level boundaries to increase accuracy. The only change to the third discharge boundary (at Levee 31W) is that the flow data are derived from SFWMM model output instead of using measured field data flows. Three water-level boundaries are modified only by receiving their data from SFWMM model output data. Additionally, two marine water-level boundaries remain the same because the SFWMM does not include Florida Bay and, therefore, this model cannot provide input data for these boundaries. The SICS no-flow boundaries remain intact because no additional data, provided by the SFWMM, suggest that any significant flow occurs along these boundaries. The Florida Bay salinity boundary is not modified because the SFWMM does not contain any salinity data that can be used to modify the model. The ground-water module of the SICS model contains a general-head boundary and a no-flow boundary. The general-head boundary, which extends along the edges of the wetland part of the SICS model domain, is modified by acquiring stage values from SFWMM cells that correspond in location to the SICS model cells. Values from the SFWMM cells are bilinearly interpolated and assigned to the appropriate SICS general-head boundary cells in all layers of the ground-water model. The ground-water no-flow boundary in Florida Bay is unaltered because the SFWMM does not include this area. A 5-year simulation was developed to test the linkage of the SICS model with the SFWMM. Results from the linked model are similar to those obtained from the original SICS model in which boundaries are assigned using field data. The simulated discharges at the coastal creeks along Florida Bay are about 5 percent lower than the field data simulation; water levels in the wetlands are about 4 percent lower, and salinities at the various coastal creeks are slightly higher.

Florida↗

USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2015

Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems

Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.

PNAS↗

USGS2007

Estimating Water Storage Capacity of Existing and Potentially Restorable Wetland Depressions in a Subbasin of the Red River of the North

Executive Summary Concern over flooding along rivers in the Prairie Pothole Region has stimulated interest in developing spatially distributed hydrologic models to simulate the effects of wetland water storage on peak river flows. Such models require spatial data on the storage volume and interception area of existing and restorable wetlands in the watershed of interest. In most cases, information on these model inputs is lacking because resolution of existing topographic maps is inadequate to estimate volume and areas of existing and restorable wetlands. Consequently, most studies have relied on wetland area to volume or interception area relationships to estimate wetland basin storage characteristics by using available surface area data obtained as a product from remotely sensed data (e.g., National Wetlands Inventory). Though application of areal input data to estimate volume and interception areas is widely used, a drawback is that there is little information available to provide guidance regarding the application, limitations, and biases associated with such approaches. Another limitation of previous modeling efforts is that water stored by wetlands within a watershed is treated as a simple lump storage component that is filled prior to routing overflow to a pour point or gaging station. This approach does not account for dynamic wetland processes that influence water stored in prairie wetlands. Further, most models have not considered the influence of human-induced hydrologic changes, such as land use, that greatly influence quantity of surface water inputs and, ultimately, the rate that a wetland basin fills and spills. The goals of this study were to (1) develop and improve methodologies for estimating and spatially depicting wetland storage volumes and interceptions areas and (2) develop models and approaches for estimating/simulating the water storage capacity of potentially restorable and existing wetlands under various restoration, land use, and climatic scenarios. To address these goals, we developed models and approaches to spatially represent storage volumes and interception areas of existing and potentially restorable wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin within Grant County, Minn. We then developed and applied a model to simulate wetland water storage increases that would result from restoring 25 and 50 percent of the farmed and drained wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin. The model simulations were performed during the growing season (May-October) for relatively wet (1993; 0.79 m of precipitation) and dry (1987; 0.40 m of precipitation) years. Results from the simulations indicated that the 25 percent restoration scenario would increase water storage by 21-24 percent and that a 50 percent scenario would increase storage by 34-38 percent. Additionally, we estimated that wetlands in the subbasin have potential to store 11.57-20.98 percent of the total precipitation that fell over the entire subbasin area (52,758 ha). Our simulation results indicated that there is considerable potential to enhance water storage in the subbasin; however, evaluation and calibration of the model is necessary before simulation results can be applied to management and planning decisions. In this report we present guidance for the development and application of models (e.g., surface area-volume predictive models, hydrology simulation model) to simulate wetland water storage to provide a basis from which to understand and predict the effects of natural or human-induced hydrologic alterations. In developing these approaches, we tried to use simple and widely available input data to simulate wetland hydrology and predict wetland water storage for a specific precipitation event or a series of events. Further, the hydrology simulation model accounted for land use and soil type, which influence surface water inputs to wetlands. Although information presented in this report is specific to the Mustinka subbasin, the approaches

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Reconnaissance of land-use sources of pesticides in drinking water, McKenzie River, Oregon

The Eugene Water and Electric Board (EWEB) provides water and electricity to the City of Eugene, Oregon, from the McKenzie River. In the spring of 2002, EWEB initiated a pesticide monitoring program in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey as part of their Drinking Water Source Protection Plan. Approximately twice yearly pesticide samples were collected from 2002 to 2010 at a suite of sampling sites representing varying land uses in the lower McKenzie River basin. A total of 117 ambient samples were collected from 28 tributary and mainstem sites, including those dominated by forestry, urban, and agricultural activities, as well as the mouths of major tributaries characterized by a mixture of upstream land use. Constituents tested included 175 compounds in filtered water (72 herbicides, 43 insecticides, 10 fungicides, and 36 of their degradation products, as well as 14 pharmaceutical compounds). No attempt was made to sample different site types equivalently; sampling was instead designed primarily to characterize representative storm events during spring and fall runoff conditions in order to assess or confirm the perceived importance of the different site types as sources for pesticides. Sampling was especially limited for agricultural sites, which were only sampled during two spring storm surveys. A total of 43 compounds were detected at least once, with many of these detected only at low concentrations (<0.1 micrograms per liter). Nine compounds were detected at the drinking- water intake, and most of these were reported as estimates less than the laboratory reporting level. Human-health benchmark concentrations were consistently several orders of magnitude higher than detected concentrations at the intake, indicating that pesticide concentrations present a negligible threat to human health. The largest number of pesticide detections occurred during spring storm surveys and primarily were associated with urban stormwater drains. Urban sites also were associated with the highest concentrations, occasionally exceeding 1 microgram per liter. Many of the compounds detected at urban sites were relatively hydrophobic (do not mix easily with water), persistent, and suspected of endocrine disruption. In contrast, forestry compounds were rarely detectable in the McKenzie River, even though forest land predominates in the basin and forestry pesticide use was detected in small tributaries draining forested lands following application. Agricultural pesticide runoff was not well characterized by the limited data available, although a large number of compounds was estimated to be used in the basin and concentrations were moderately high in the few samples collected from small tributaries draining agricultural lands. Results from this analysis indicate that urban pesticide use is potentially an important source for pesticides of concern for drinking water, not limited exclusively to storm conditions. Forestry pesticide use is not considered a likely threat to drinking water quality at the present time (2012). A more complete understanding of agricultural chemicals in runoff in the McKenzie River basin requires further investigation. In addition to evaluating the data collected in this study, a conceptual model describing pesticide contamination in the McKenzie River basin is provided, based on current scientific understanding that is consistent with the data analysis presented in this report. This model is intended to provide a foundation for future monitoring in the basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2000

Integration of a numerical model and remotely sensed data to study urban/rural land surface climate processes

Simulation of urban/rural land surface climate processes using boundary layer climate models requires accurate input data with regard to surface thermal and radiative properties. The research reported here resulted in development of a procedure to integrate the satellite-derived surface biophysical parameters with a boundary layer climate model for simulating spatial surface energy exchange. The procedure was tested through spatial surface energy balance simulation of an urban/rural landscape in eastern Nebraska. The modeled surface temperature and net radiation were compared to those derived from the concurrent satellite data. The errors of the modeled surface temperature were small, and were mainly attributed to uncertainties in the estimation of surface moisture availability and satellite-derived surface radiant temperature. Modeled net radiation was also in agreement with the values calculated from satellite data. Modeled turbulent heat fluxes were in general agreement as compared to those reported in the literature, but the model tended to overestimate the latent heat flux for most rural land cover types. It was concluded that by incorporation of satellite-derived surface physical parameters into a boundary layer model, simulation of spatial land surface climate processes was much improved. The method and procedures developed from this study can be utilized in other boundary layer climate models.

Nebraska↗

USGS2024

Methods for computing water-quality concentrations and loads at sites operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Kansas Water Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Kansas Water Science Center (KSWSC) has published time-series computations of water-quality concentrations and loads based on in situ sensor data since 1995. Water-quality constituent concentrations or densities are computed using regression models that relate in situ sensor values to laboratory analyses of periodically collected samples. These regression models currently (2024) follow no uniform published guidance and are individually documented through USGS reports. This report describes updated (2024) procedures designed to improve the consistency, quality, and timeliness of computed continuous water-quality data produced by the USGS KSWSC. Beginning in 2024, models developed by the USGS KSWSC that follow specific procedures and requirements related to sample collection, model fit, and model documentation outlined in this report are planned to be published and stored in the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality Data for the Nation Data Service. This report also describes USGS KSWSC procedures for evaluating and publishing time-series water-quality computations after initial model development and documentation. This guidance can be used to improve USGS KSWSC model development and data computation consistency and streamline the time-series water-quality computation process from model development to publication.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Spatiotemporal methane emission from global reservoirs

Inland aquatic systems, such as reservoirs, contribute substantially to global methane (CH 4 ) emissions; yet are among the most uncertain components of the total CH 4 budget. Reservoirs have received recent attention as they may generate high CH 4 fluxes. Improved quantification of these CH 4 fluxes, particularly their spatiotemporal distribution, is key to realistically incorporating them in CH 4 modeling and budget studies. Here we report on a new global, gridded (0.25° lat × 0.25° lon) study of reservoir CH 4 emissions, accounting for new knowledge regarding reservoir areal extent and distribution, and spatiotemporal emission patterns influenced by diurnal variability, temperature-dependent seasonality, satellite-derived freeze-thaw dynamics, and eco-climatic zone. The results of this new data set comprise daily CH 4 emissions throughout the full annual cycle and show that reservoirs cover 297 × 10 3 km 2 globally and emit 10.1 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (1σ uncertainty range of 7.2–12.9 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) from diffusive (1.2 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) and ebullitive (8.9 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) emission pathways. This analysis of reservoir CH 4 emission addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties in previous studies and represents an important contribution to studies of the global CH 4 budget. The new data sets and methodologies from this study provide a framework to better understand and model the current and future role of reservoirs in the global CH 4 budget and to guide efforts to mitigate reservoir-related CH 4 emissions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2008

Summary of Survival Data from Juvenile Coho Salmon in the Klamath River, Northern California, 2007

A study to estimate the effects of Iron Gate Dam discharge on ESA-listed juvenile coho salmon during their seaward migration to the ocean was begun in 2005. Estimates of survival through various reaches of river downstream from the dam were completed in 2006 and 2007 as part of this process. This report describes the estimates of survival during 2007, and is a complement to a similar report from 2006. Further analyses will be included in a separate report. In 2007, a series of models were evaluated to determine what survival and capture probabilities of radio-tagged hatchery fish were in several reaches between Iron Gate Hatchery at river kilometer 309 and a site at river kilometer 33. The results indicate trends in survival among reaches were similar to those found in 2006, but the survival in 2007 was lower than in 2006. The differences in survivals from Iron Gate Hatchery to river kilometer 33 in 2006 (0.653 SE 0.039) and 2007 (0.497 SE 0.044) were caused primarily by differences in survivals upstream from the Scott River. This document is a brief summary of 2007 survival results.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1987

Definition of boundary and initial conditions in the analysis of saturated ground-water flow systems - An introduction

Accurate definition of boundary and initial conditions is an essential part of conceptualizing and modeling ground-water flow systems. This report describes the properties of the seven most common boundary conditions encountered in ground-water systems and discusses major aspects of their application. It also discusses the significance and specification of initial conditions and evaluates some common errors in applying this concept to ground-water-system models. An appendix is included that discusses what the solution of a differential equation represents and how the solution relates to the boundary conditions defining the specific problem. This report considers only boundary conditions that apply to saturated ground-water systems.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

USGS1999

An Overview of the Factors Involved in Evaluating the Geochemical Effects of Highway Runoff on the Environment

Materials washed by rain and snowmelt from highways into adjacent surface waters, ground waters, and ecosystems can pollute water and affect biota. To understand the chemical behavior of any one of these materials and its effects on the environment requires knowledge of the chemistry of the material and how it interacts with other components in the local geochemical system. An integrated watershed approach, therefore, would be the most effective method to assess the effects of highway runoff on local receiving waters. Analysis of one or a few specific contaminants will provide limited and incomplete information and may be misleading in terms of environmental effects. This report addresses the background geochemistry required to model highway runoff and to make realistic assessments of the potential effects of runoff on the environment.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Mapping ground water in three dimensions: An analysis of airborne geophysical surveys of the Upper San Pedro River Basin, Cochise County, southeastern Arizona

This report summarizes the results of two airborne geophysical surveys conducted in the upper San Pedro Valley of southeastern Arizona in 1997 and 1999. The combined surveys cover about 1,000 square kilometers and extend from the Huachuca Mountains on the west to the Mule Mountains and Tombstone Hills on the east and from north of the Babocomari River to near the Mexican border on the south. The surveys included the acquisition of high-resolution magnetic data, which were used to map depth to the crystalline basement rocks underlying the sediments filling the basin. The magnetic inversion results show a complex basement morphology, with sediment thickness in the center of the valley ranging from ~237 meters beneath the city of Sierra Vista to ~1,500 meters beneath Huachuca City and the Palominas area near the Mexican border. The surveys also included acquisition of 60-channel time-domain electromagnetic (EM) data. Extensive quality analyses of these data, including inversion to conductivity vs. depth (conductivity-depth-transform or CDT) profiles and comparisons with electrical well logs, show that the electrical conductor mapped represents the subsurface water-bearing sediments throughout most of the basin. In a few places (notably the mouth of Huachuca Canyon), the reported water table lies above where the electrical conductor places it. These exceptions appear to be due to a combination of outdated water-table information, significant horizontal displacement between the wells and the CDT profiles, and a subtle calibration issue with the CDT algorithm apparent only in areas of highly resistive (very dry) overburden. These occasional disparities appear in less than 5 percent of the surveyed area. Observations show, however, that wells drilled in the thick unsaturated zone along the Huachuca Mountain front eventually intersect water, at which point the water rapidly rises high into the unsaturated zone within the wellbore. This rising of water in a wellbore implies some sort of confinement below the thick unsaturated zone, a confinement that is not identified in the available literature. Occasional disparities notwithstanding, maps of the electrical conductor derived from the airborne EM system provide a synoptic view of the presence of water underlying the upper San Pedro Valley, including its three-dimensional distribution. The EM data even show faults previously only inferred from geologic mapping. The magnetic and electromagnetic data together appear to show the thickness of the sediments, the water in the saturated sediments down to a maximum of about 400 meters depth, and even places where the main ground-water body is not in direct contact with the San Pedro River. However, the geophysical data cannot reveal anything directly about hydraulic conductivity or ground-water flow. Estimating these characteristics requires new hydraulic modeling based in part on this report. One concern to reviewers of this report is the effect that clays may have on the electrical conductor mapped with the airborne geophysical system. Although the water in the basin is unusually conductive, averaging 338 microsiemens per centimeter, reasoning cited below suggests that the contribution of clays to the overall conductivity would be relatively small. Basic principles of sedimentary geology suggest that silts and clays should dominate the center of the basin, while sands and gravels would tend to dominate the margins. Although clay content may increase the amplitude of the observed electrical conductors somewhat, it will not affect the depths to the conductor derived from depth inversions. Further, fine-grained sediments generally have higher porosity and tend to lie toward a basin center, a fact in general agreement with the observed geophysical data.

Arizona↗