Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Global Environmental Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Concepts and evolution of urban hydrology.

Urbanization and climate change are exacerbating the flood risk and ecosystem degradation in urban catchments, with traditional stormwater management systems often overwhelmed. In this Review, we discuss changes in urban hydrology and approaches to stormwater management. Roughly 90% of rainfall on impervious surfaces and drainage infrastructure becomes run-off, enhancing rainfall export away from cities and leading to local water scarcity and downstream flooding and pollution. Projected increases in urban populations (68% in cities by 2050) and rainfall intensity (~12% in the 10-year and 50-year recurrence interval intensity, under 1.5 °C warming) will exacerbate these issues. Transforming stormwater systems is thus urgently needed, to mitigate flood risk and also to address community desires for environmental protection and enhanced water security. Opportunities include rain gardens and other nature-based stormwater control measures (which restore natural flows and offer other ecosystem services), smart sensor monitoring networks and real-time management (which sustain natural flow regimes, mitigate flood risk and protect ecosystem services) and stormwater harvesting (to avoid local water scarcity). Community acceptance of stormwater harvesting is as high as 96% and stormwater is a substantial resource, with volumes often exceeding demand in some parts of the world. Delivering additional transformations globally requires research into strategies to incentivize engagement and investment, and policies to guide governance of decentralized networks.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2011

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-indigenous Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus 1758). I. Physiological capabilities in various temperatures and salinities

The physiological tolerances of non-native fishes is an integral component of assessing potential invasive risk. Salinity and temperature are environmental variables that limit the spread of many non-native fishes. We hypothesised that combinations of temperature and salinity will interact to affect survival, growth, and reproduction of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus , introduced into Mississippi, USA. Tilapia withstood acute transfer from fresh water up to a salinity of 20 and survived gradual transfer up to 60 at typical summertime (30°C) temperatures. However, cold temperature (14°C) reduced survival of fish in saline waters ≥10 and increased the incidence of disease in freshwater controls. Although fish were able to equilibrate to saline waters in warm temperatures, reproductive parameters were reduced at salinities ≥30. These integrated responses suggest that Nile tilapia can invade coastal areas beyond their point of introduction. However, successful invasion is subject to two caveats: (1) wintertime survival depends on finding thermal refugia, and (2) reproduction is hampered in regions where salinities are ≥30. These data are vital to predicting the invasion of non-native fishes into coastal watersheds. This is particularly important given the predicted changes in coastal landscapes due to global climate change and sea-level rise.

Mississippi↗
USGS2025

Impact of warming and suspended terrigenous sediment on the Hawaiian reef coral Montipora capitata

Coral reefs near high human population areas suffer from sedimentation and increased turbidity due to coastal development. However, there is limited research on how key species respond to turbidity caused by terrigenous sediment and how this response may change with increased water temperatures. This study investigated the effects of ambient and elevated turbidity (+ 26 NTU) in combination with ambient (27.1 °C) and elevated temperature (+ 4.1 °C; 31.2 °C) on the dominant Hawaiian reef coral Montipora capitata , collected from two Kāneʻohe Bay watersheds with distinct environmental histories. Using intermittent flow respirometry, we found that acute (12 h) exposure to elevated turbidity and temperature impacted algal symbionts ( Symbiodinium spp. ) but not the coral host, suggesting a potential delayed host physiological response. Corals from south Kāneʻohe Bay, where restricted water circulation and urbanization have degraded water quality, were more sensitive to stressors than those from the less-impacted northern sites, indicating that physiological responses vary by location and may be influenced by watershed conditions. The findings suggest that while short-term turbidity and warming impact Symbiodinium spp. immediately, prolonged exposure may lead to cascading effects on the coral host. Understanding these species-specific and location-dependent responses enhances our ability to guide restoration and conservation efforts for coral ecosystems facing both local (turbidity) and global (warming) stressors.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Climate change and water quality influence on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon aggregation in the Altamaha River, Georgia

In the summer, juvenile Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are vulnerable to extreme water quality conditions (i.e., temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], and salinity) in the estuaries they inhabit. The effects of climate change on Atlantic sturgeon are largely unknown, but it may exacerbate these water quality issues. We used a 20-year dataset from the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, USA to fit negative binomial mixed-effects models describing the relationship between water quality and catch per net hour of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon. Water temperature and DO were significant positive predictors of catch; salinity and sampling year were significant negative predictors. The interaction between temperature and DO was also significant. Water temperature, salinity, and year were significant in explaining variability in catch. Our modeling results suggest that response to water quality depends on fish age. Next, we used global climate projections to construct future climate scenarios incorporating warming water and increased salinity. By coupling these predictions with catch models, we forecast juvenile Atlantic sturgeon catch as a proxy for distribution. Water temperature increases of 1–5 °C led to predicted catch increases of 5–24%, although this result may be influenced by aggregation behavior or sampling limitations at high temperatures. Salinity increases of 1–2 ppt led to 9–17% decreases in catch, suggesting that saltwater intrusion may limit future Atlantic sturgeon estuarine habitat availability. Our study combines a long-term dataset with a robust statistical modeling approach to offer some of the first insights into future climate change effects on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon’s southern nursery habitats.

Georgia↗
USGS2023

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle . It is where human–environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases . However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area and wildland vegetation . We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003–2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions , there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Nature↗
USGS2026

Stochastic within-host dynamics and climate-sensitive traits generate predictable patterns of variation in disease outcomes

Understanding how climatic variables impact host-pathogen relationships in temperature-sensitive ectothermic host organisms is crucial under global change. Few studies have explored how temperature gradients generate inter-individual variation in epidemiological traits like host susceptibility or pathogen replication. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore a novel hypothesis: stochastic within-host dynamics and simulated thermal mismatches between host and pathogen traits generate predictable variation in infection outcomes among hosts and across thermal gradients. Our model demonstrates that varying trait thermal optima in host immunity and pathogen replication, and stochastic within-host processes produced variation in infection outcomes. Variability was low when temperatures strongly favored host or pathogen traits, but high and diverse when their performance was similar across a broad thermal range. In contrast, when trait performance was equal across all temperatures (no mismatch) variability remained low at all temperatures. Further, the magnitude of variation, quantified by entropy, exhibited predictable patterns depending on host-pathogen thermal mismatches. We conclude that interactions between trait thermal mismatches and within-host stochasticity provide a theoretical framework to improve ectotherm disease models under climate change, providing a valuable tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on epizootic or epidemic dynamics, particularly in vulnerable marine ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗
USGS2020

Effect of stressors on the carrying capacity of spatially distributed metapopulations

Stressors such as antibiotics, herbicides, and pollutants are becoming increasingly common in the environment. The effects of stressors on populations are typically studied in homogeneous, nonspatial settings. However, most populations in nature are spatially distributed over environmentally heterogeneous landscapes with spatially restricted dispersal. Little is known about the effects of stressors in these more realistic settings. Here, we combine laboratory experiments with novel mathematical theory to rigorously investigate how a stressor’s physiological effect and spatial distribution interact with dispersal to influence population dynamics. We prove mathematically that if a stressor increases the death rate and/or simultaneously decreases the population growth rate and yield, a homogeneous distribution of the stressor leads to a lower total population size than if the same amount of the stressor was heterogeneously distributed. We experimentally test this prediction on spatially distributed populations of budding yeast ( Saccharomyces cerevisiae ). We find that the antibiotic cycloheximide increases the yeast death rate but reduces the growth rate and yield. Consistent with our mathematical predictions, we observe that a homogeneous spatial distribution of cycloheximide minimizes the total equilibrium size of experimental metapopulations, with the magnitude of the effect depending predictably on the dispersal rate and the geographic pattern of antibiotic heterogeneity. Our study has implications for assessing the population risk posed by pollutants, antibiotics, and global change and for the rational design of strategies for employing toxins to control pathogens and pests.

The American Naturalist↗
USGS2024

Societal benefits of cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom management in Lake Okeechobee in Florida—Potential damages avoided during the 2018 event under U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System scenarios

Freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) formed by blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, have emerged as a global environmental problem. Their negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems can affect the benefits nature provides to human society by reducing water quality; inhibiting aquatic recreation; killing fish, wildlife, and pets; and posing a risk to human health. To manage harmful algal blooms, the Engineer Research and Development Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is developing an advanced technology called the Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System (HABITATS), which has been tested in pilot demonstrations upstream of spillways at HAB-affected waterbodies in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators from the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis investigated the societal benefits of HABITATS technology by using data from an actual 2018 harmful algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee to characterize the observed societal impacts and then comparing observed effects to hypothetical scenarios of HABITATS deployment. This study estimated an economic value of $5.5 million in foregone recreation as a result of closed boating ramp facilities and other restrictions on aquatic recreation such as fishing and swimming during the 2018 cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom outbreak. The change in housing sales prices that could have resulted from murky water or bad odor during that outbreak was estimated as $2.3 million. The team also investigated drinking water contamination and human illness but did not find significant societal impacts in this case. If HABITATS had been deployed, the avoided losses less the cost of management could have provided net societal benefits that ranged between negative $2.1 million and positive $0.8 million, depending on the vertical distribution of algae in the water column and the HABITATS version used. The study’s estimated societal benefit is undoubtedly a lower bound estimate because current scientific knowledge is inadequate to characterize, or monetize, all the impacts.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Harmonization of forest disturbance datasets of the conterminous USA from 1986 to 2011

Several spatial forest disturbance datasets exist for the conterminous USA. The major problem with forest disturbance mapping is that variability between map products leads to uncertainty regarding the actual rate of disturbance. In this article, harmonized maps were produced from multiple data sources (i.e., Global Forest Change, LANDFIRE Vegetation Disturbance, National Land Cover Database, Vegetation Change Tracker, and Web-Enabled Landsat Data). The harmonization process involved fitting common class ontologies and determining spatial congruency to produce forest disturbance maps for four time intervals (1986–1992, 1992–2001, 2001–2006, and 2006–2011). Pixels mapped as disturbed for two or more datasets were labeled as disturbed in the harmonized maps. The primary advantage gained by harmonization was improvement in commission error rates relative to the individual disturbance products. Disturbance omission errors were high for both harmonized and individual forest disturbance maps due to underlying limitations in mapping subtle disturbances with Landsat classification algorithms. To enhance the value of the harmonized disturbance products, we used fire perimeter maps to add information on the cause of disturbance.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2015

Transforming ecosystems: When, where, and how to restore contaminated sites

Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2001

Constraining controls on carbonate sequences with high-resolution chronostratigraphy: Upper Miocene, Cabo de Gata region, SE Spain

A high-resolution chronostratigraphy has been developed for Miocene shallow-water carbonate strata in the Cabo de Gata region of SE Spain for evaluation of local, regional and global factors that controlled platform architecture prior to and during the Messinian salinity crisis. Paleomagnetic data were collected from strata at three localities. Mean natural remanent magnetization (NRM) ranges between 1.53 ?? 10-8 and 5.2 ?? 10-3 Am2/kg. Incremental thermal and alternating field demagnetization isolated the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM). Rock magnetic studies show that the dominant magnetic mineral is magnetite, but mixtures of magnetite and hematite occur. A composite chronostratigraphy was derived from five stratigraphic sections. Regional stratigraphic data, biostratigraphic data, and an 40Ar/39Ar date of 8.5 ?? 0.1 Ma, for an interbedded volcanic flow, place the strata in geomagnetic polarity Chrons C4r to C3r. Sequence-stratigraphic and diagenetic evidence indicate a major unconformity at the base of depositional sequence (DS)3 that contains a prograding reef complex, suggesting that approximately 250 000 yr of record (Subchrons C3Br.2r to 3Br.1r) are missing near the Messinian-Tortonian boundary. Correlation to the GPTS shows that the studied strata represent five third- to fourth-order DSs. Basal units are temperate to subtropical ramps (DS1A, DS1B, DS2); these are overlain by subtropical to tropical reefal platforms (DS3), which are capped by subtropical to tropical cyclic carbonates (Terminal Carbonate Complex, TCC). Correlation of the Cabo de Gata record to the Melilla area of Morocco, and the Sorbas basin of Spain indicate that early - Late Tortonian ramp strata from these areas are partially time-equivalent. Similar strata are extensively developed in the Western Mediterranean and likely were influenced by a cool climate or influx of nutrients during an overall rise in global sea-level. After ramp deposition, a sequence boundary (SB3) in Cabo de Gata correlates with a sequence boundary in Morocco and a published third-order eustatic fall suggesting at least a partial eustatic control for the sequence boundary. Coral reefs began to develop earlier in Cabo de Gata than at Melilla or Sorbas, arguing for local factors affecting this major environmental transition. Later Messinian reefs (DS3) from all areas are time-equivalent, suggesting a regional or global control on their formation. Some Halimeda-rich horizons in the Western Mediterranean are not time-equivalent event strata as hypothesized by others. Correlation of the relative sea-level curve for the fringing reef complex (DS3) with a published eustatic curve suggests at least a partial third-order global eustatic control for the highstand part of the sequence. Downstepping DS3 reefs and initial subaerial exposure of earlier DS3 reef strata approximately correlate with initiation of a series of subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific. The longer-term relative fall in sea-level during DS3 downstepping reef progradation does not correlate with a published third-order eustatic fall. Eustatic sea-level fluctuations may have been associated with initiation of the Mediterranean Messinian salinity crisis, but the longer-term fall may have been linked to tectonic uplift in the Mediterranean region. Widespread distribution of 'TCC-style' cycles of approximately the same age suggests a regional (Western Mediterranean) or global control on sea-level change responsible for TCC cycles. In addition, four subaerial exposure-capped TCC cycles may correlate with similar subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific, suggesting at least a partial eustatic control on TCC cyclicity. The high rates of relative sea-level change needed to generate a minimum of 25-30 m sea-level changes associated with each cycle are consistent with glacio-eustacy along with rapid evaporitic drawdown in the Mediterranean. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2023

Evidence for density-dependent effects on body composition of a large omnivore in a changing Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Understanding the density-dependent processes that drive population demography in a changing world is critical in ecology, yet measuring performance–density relationships in long-lived mammalian species demands long-term data, limiting scientists' ability to observe such mechanisms. We tested performance–density relationships for an opportunistic omnivore, grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos , Linnaeus, 1758) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with estimates of body composition (lean body mass and percent body fat) serving as indicators of individual performance over two decades (2000–2020) during which time pronounced environmental changes have occurred. Several high-calorie foods for grizzly bears have mostly declined in recent decades (e.g., whitebark pine [ Pinus albicaulis , Engelm, 1863]), while increasing human impacts from recreation, development, and long-term shifts in temperatures and precipitation are altering the ecosystem. We hypothesized that individual lean body mass declines as population density increases (H1), and that this effect would be more pronounced among growing individuals (H2). We also hypothesized that omnivory helps grizzly bears buffer energy intake from changing foods, with body fat levels being independent from population density and environmental changes (H3). Our analyses showed that individual lean body mass was negatively related to population density, particularly among growing-age females, supporting H1 and partially H2. In contrast, population density or sex had little effect on body fat levels and rate of accumulation, indicating that sufficient food resources were available on the landscape to accommodate successful use of shifting food sources, supporting H3. Our results offer important insights into ecological feedback mechanisms driving individual performances within a population undergoing demographic and ecosystem-level changes. However, synergistic effects of continued climate change and increased human impacts could lead to more extreme changes in food availability and affect observed population resilience mechanisms. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term studies in protected areas when investigating complex ecological relationships in an increasingly anthropogenic world.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2017

Relationships between salinity and short-term soil carbon accumulation rates form marsh types across a landscape in the Mississippi River Delta

Salinity alterations will likely change the plant and environmental characteristics in coastal marshes thereby influencing soil carbon accumulation rates. Coastal Louisiana marshes have been historically classified as fresh, intermediate, brackish, or saline based on resident plant community and position along a salinity gradient. Short-term total carbon accumulation rates were assessed by collecting 10-cm deep soil cores at 24 sites located in marshes spanning the salinity gradient. Bulk density, total carbon content, and the short-term accretion rates obtained with feldspar horizon markers were measured to determine total carbon accumulation rates. Despite some significant differences in soil properties among marsh types, the mean total carbon accumulation rates among marsh types were not significantly different (mean ± std. err. of 190 ± 27 g TC m −2 year −1 ). However, regression analysis indicated that mean annual surface salinity had a significant negative relationship with total carbon accumulation rates. Based on both analyses, the coastal Louisiana total marsh area (1,433,700 ha) accumulates about 2.7 to 3.3 Tg C year −1 . Changing salinities due to increasing relative sea level or resulting from restoration activities may alter carbon accumulation rates in the short term and significantly influence the global carbon cycle.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Long-term changes in kelp forests in an inner basin of the Salish Sea

Kelp forests form an important biogenic habitat that responds to natural and human drivers. Global concerns exist about threats to kelp forests, yet long-term information is limited and research suggests that trends are geographically distinct. We examined distribution of the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana over 145 years in South Puget Sound (SPS), a semi-protected inner basin in a fjord estuary complex in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We synthesized 48 historical and modern Nereocystis surveys and examined presence/absence within 1-km segments along 452 km of shoreline. Compared to the earliest baseline in 1878, Nereocystis extent in 2017 decreased 63%, with individual sub-basins showing up to 96% loss. Losses have persisted for decades, across a range of climate conditions. In recent decades, Nereocystis predominantly occurred along shorelines with intense currents and mixing, where temperature and nutrient concentrations did not reach thresholds for impacts to Nereocystis performance, and high current speeds likely excluded grazers. Losses predominated in areas with elevated temperature, lower nutrient concentrations, and relatively low current velocities. The pattern of long-term losses in SPS contrasts with stability in floating kelp abundance during the last century in an area of the Salish Sea with greater wave exposure and proximity to oceanic conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that kelp beds along wave-sheltered shorelines exhibit greater sensitivity to environmental stressors. Additionally, shorelines with strong currents and deep-water mixing may provide refugia within sheltered systems.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Brahmaputra;Ganges↗
USGS2021

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species’ sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017–2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species’ geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species’ range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2009

Evidence for long-term climate change in Upper Devonian strata of the central Appalachians

The highest 1 to 200 m of the Upper Devonian (Famennian) Catskill and equivalent Hampshire formations exhibit a noticeable vertical or stratigraphic change in color and a shift in lithologic character. The lower part of the unit is characterized by typically red, channel-phase sandstones and overbank siltstone and mudstone containing thin calcareous paleosols. These lithologies give way to greenish gray sandstone containing abundant coaly plant fragments, coalified logs, and pyrite, interbedded with thick intervals of non-calcareous paleo-vertisols. The increase in the prominence of preserved terrestrial organic matter suggests that there was a corresponding increase in the abundance of plants in terrestrial ecosystems. The stratigraphic change in lithology within the upper part of the Catskill-Hampshire succession suggests the onset of environmental conditions that became increasingly wet in response to elevated humid climatic conditions during the final stages of Catskill alluvial plain deposition. The sedimentological signature suggesting increased climatic wetness within the uppermost Catskill and Hampshire formations is nearly contemporaneous with the initiation of Late Devonian Gondwanan glaciation in the paleo-high-latitudes. The Appalachian climate record indicates that this change began during the Fa2c and continued through the latest Famennian, reaching its peak during the Fa2d when glacial deposits are recorded in the paleo-mid-latitudes of the Appalachian basin. Evidence of this late Famennian increase in precipitation also is recorded in the adjacent marine environments. Equivalent-age marine units in Ohio and Kentucky record progressive increases in both total organic carbon and the percentage of terrestrially-derived organic carbon. This suggests that there was a late Famennian increase in terrestrial organic matter productivity, and that during the late Famennian, there were elevated levels of runoff produced by the interpreted increase in precipitation that washed progressively higher amounts of terrestrial organic matter into the local marine environments. The late Famennian climate changes identified within the Appalachian basin strata have been recognizable globally, and appear to have had both positive and negative effects on the Earth's biota. Some marine groups exhibit sharp diversity drops or even extinction coincident with the maximum development of the late Famennian ice age. Conversely, terrestrial biota appears to have been more positively affected by the late Famennian increased wetness that accompanied this progressive climate change. Marked diversification and evolutionary innovation, which appear to coincide with this climatic deviation, can be recognized within terrestrial plant communities and early tetrapod amphibians. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗