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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Climate change impacts on plant communities in the sagebrush region—A science synthesis to inform Bureau of Land Management resource management

This report synthesizes current (2024) science-based knowledge related to the impacts of climate change on big sagebrush vegetation in Western North America. This effort was conducted through the U.S. Geological Survey working with the Bureau of Land Management as part of multiple science syntheses to aid management agencies developing environmental impacts assessments in response to human-related or caused events. This report reviews the potential impacts climate change may have on sagebrush vegetation and related management decisions. The body of the synthesis introduces the diverse impacts of climate change across the region by first focusing directly on what climate change may entail in terms of altered temperature and precipitation patterns. The report then discusses how these changes could likely affect individual plant species based on experimental results and scale the impacts to species distributions and community composition. The synthesis section ends by surveying efforts to model potential future changes in habitat. The report goes on to link the synthesis conclusions to individual land uses or land management decisions, such as forage resources, restoration or fuel treatment. Finally, the report provides a section that discusses the pros and cons of available datasets that model the potential future of vegetation in the sagebrush region.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2024

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗
USGS2013

A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

California↗
USGSDate not supplied

The ecology of Humboldt Bay, California, an estuarine profile

Synthesizes data on the ecological relationships and functions of the estuary, including information on physical aspects of the bay environment; describes the biotic communities and their relationships; provides management considerations in terms including environmental concerns; and identifies research and management information gaps. Portions of the bay are managed as a national wildlife refuge. Management issues for this ecosystem include loss of habitat and degradation of the environment by additional industrial development and nonpoint source pollution. -from Authors

California↗
USGS2020

Quantifying the contribution of habitats and pathways to a spatially structured population facing environmental change

The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric, G , for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different from other contribution metrics, as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences the ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats within which all individuals reside during one season are the most important to short-term network growth under complete removal scenarios, whereas the central breeding region contributes most to population growth over all but the strongest disturbances. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations. use changes in one location carry through to other areas due to species movement. We develop a metric, G, for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different than other contribution metrics as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats through which all migrants flow are the most important to short-term network growth under complete-removal scenarios. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations.

American Naturalist↗
USGS2022

Seasonal impoundment management reduces nitrogen cycling but not resilience to surface fire in a tidal wetland

Hydrology and salinity regimes of many impounded wetlands are manipulated to provide seasonal habitats for migratory waterfowl , with little-known consequences for ecosystem structure and function. Managed hydrology can alter ecosystems by directly changing soil properties and processes and by influencing plant community dynamics. Additionally, management history may influence ecosystem response to disturbance, including fires. To better understand how wetland management regime influences ecosystem response to disturbance, we quantified elevation, soil nitrogen concentrations and process rates, and plant community structure and diversity in a natural experiment following the 2018 Branscombe Fire. We measured paired burned-unburned patches in both tidally-influenced and managed, seasonally-impounded wetlands in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Unburned ecosystem structure and nutrient cycling differed by wetland management history; unburned impounded wetlands were ∼1 m lower in elevation and plant community composition was dominated by succulents whereas the unburned tidal wetland was dominated by graminoids. Unburned impounded wetland soil nitrogen cycling (potential nitrification and denitrification) rates were <28% of those measured in unburned tidal wetland soils and soil extractable nitrate, ammonium, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations were also substantially lower in unburned impounded than unburned tidal wetlands. Despite these differences in pre-disturbance (i.e., unburned) conditions, all soil processes recovered to baseline levels within 6 months after surface fire, and we found no evidence of plant community change 1 year after fire in either wetland management type. Overall, water management history exerted stronger control on ecosystem processes and structure than surface fire disturbance. Low extractable soil nitrate and potential denitrification rates may indicate limitation of soil nitrogen removal in impounded wetlands, with implications for downstream environmental quality and eutrophication across managed landscapes.

California↗
USGS2016

Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Adaptive management of rangeland systems

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that uses structured learning to reduce uncertainties for the improvement of management over time. The origins of adaptive management are linked to ideas of resilience theory and complex systems. Rangeland management is particularly well suited for the application of adaptive management, having sufficient controllability and reducible uncertainties. Adaptive management applies the tools of structured decision making and requires monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment of management. Adaptive governance, involving sharing of power and knowledge among relevant stakeholders, is often required to address conflict situations. Natural resource laws and regulations can present a barrier to adaptive management when requirements for legal certainty are met with environmental uncertainty. However, adaptive management is possible, as illustrated by two cases presented in this chapter. Despite challenges and limitations, when applied appropriately adaptive management leads to improved management through structured learning, and rangeland management is an area in which adaptive management shows promise and should be further explored.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Survival, travel time, and use of migration routes by juvenile steelhead in a modified river estuary

Greater understanding of the survival, travel time, and spatial distribution of juvenile salmonids among migration routes between their natal streams and the ocean is critical to the recovery of these threatened species. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta), a highly modified estuary in central California, USA, there is a critical need to evaluate how water management (e.g., water pumping) and environmental factors (e.g., water flow) impact these populations. While management actions can affect some environmental variables in the Delta, only recently have studies begun to uncover associations between these variables and key demographic parameters. In this study, we examine the effects of freshwater flows, water exports, tidal environment, and a temporary barrier on juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) survival, travel times, and migration routing using a multiyear acoustic telemetry dataset and recent advancements in Bayesian multistate mark-recapture modeling. We found that no single covariate explained variation in juvenile steelhead population dynamics across the entire Delta, but that separate regions within the Delta showed association with specific environmental factors.

California↗
USGS2018

Biology and impacts of Pacific Islands invasive species. 14. Sus scrofa the feral pig (Artiodactyla: Suidae)

Feral pigs ( Sus scrofa L.) are perhaps the most abundant, widespread, and economically significant large introduced vertebrate across the Pacific island region. Unlike many other nonnative invasive species, feral pigs have both cultural and recreational importance in the region, complicating their management. Today, Pacific island feral pigs are a mixture of several strains of domestic swine, Asiatic wild boar, and European wild boar. Due to their generalist diet and rooting behavior, feral pigs alter soils and watersheds and negatively impact native and nonnative flora and fauna. As a result, feral pigs have played a role in the extinction of several species of plants and animals on Pacific islands and have negative effects on both ecotourism and agricultural industries in the region. Despite numerous published studies on feral pigs in the Pacific island region, of which the majority include systematic analyses of original empirical data, some fundamental aspects of feral pig ecology remain poorly characterized, at least partly due to the remote and inaccessible environments that they often inhabit. To address these knowledge gaps, effort should be made to integrate research conducted outside the Pacific island region into local management strategies. This review summarizes the origins, history, ecology, environmental effects, and current management of feral pigs in the Pacific island region; integrates regional scientific findings with those of other insular and continental systems; and identifies current knowledge gaps requiring further research to inform the ecology and management of this impactful invasive species.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2023

The Government eDNA Working Group 6th Annual eDNA Technical Exchange Workshop

The 6th annual Environmental DNA (eDNA) Technical Exchange Workshop was a virtual workshop hosted and coordinated by the Government eDNA Working Group (GEDWG) on January 24–26, 2023. GEDWG is a no-cost consortium that focuses on bringing together stakeholders associated with federal, state, provincial, municipal, and other government and non-government agencies interested in eDNA and related fields, for the purposes of sharing technical expertise and experience during monthly discussion meetings and annual workshops. Over 400 participants registered for the virtual Workshop, which featured four keynote speakers, 23 platform talks, eight short-form poster presentations, and an extended discussion session. Workshop attendees represented a broad cross-section of disciplines and backgrounds, including research scientists, natural resource managers, and conservation policy experts, and many different government agencies, private environmental consulting firms, trade organizations, non-governmental organizations, and others in the environmental management sector. Key takeaways from the workshop included moving the application of eDNA into resource management and discovering ways to improve policy uptake in the development of nationwide biodiversity monitoring, some of which is happening in the development of eDNA networks and national strategies. Future research directions discussed include studies of fate and transport, autonomous sampling/sample processing, and reference library curation. Additionally, co-design of studies and improved engagement and communication among scientists and managers are needed to ensure clear expectations and outcomes.

Environmental DNA↗
USGS1997

A new database on contaminant exposure and effects in terrestrial vertebrates for natural resource managers

The Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) program of the Department of the Interior is focused to identify and understand effects of contaminant stressors on biological resources under their stewardship. Despite the desire of many to continuously monitor the environmental health of our estuaries, much can be learned by summarizing existing temporal, geographic, and phylogenetic contaminant information. To this end, retrospective contaminant exposure and effects data for amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals residing within 30 km of Atlantic coast estuaries are being assembled through searches of published literature (e.g., Fisheries Review, Wildlife Review, BIOSIS Previews) and databases (e.g., US EPA Ecological Incident Information System; USGS Diagnostic and Epizootic Databases), and compilation of summary data from unpublished reports of government natural resource agencies, private conservation groups, and universities. These contaminant exposure and effect data for terrestrial vertebrates (CEE-TV) are being summarized using Borland dBASE in a 96- field format, including species, collection time and site coordinates, sample matrix, contaminant concentration, biomarker and bioindicator responses, and source of information (N>1500 records). This CEE-TV database has been imported into the ARC/INFO geographic information system (GIS), for purposes of examining geographic coverage and trends, and to identify critical data gaps. A preliminary risk assessment will be conducted to identify and characterize contaminants and other stressors potentially affecting terrestrial vertebrates that reside, migrate through or reproduce in these estuaries. Evaluations are underway, using specific measurement and assessment endpoints, to rank and prioritize estuarine ecosystems in which terrestrial vertebrates are potentially at risk for purposes of prediction and focusing future biomonitoring efforts.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Hydrologic and environmental thresholds in stream fish assemblage structure across flow regimes

The characteristic pattern of variation in flow magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change defines the flow regime of rivers and streams and is a key driver of ecosystem processes in fluvial ecosystems. Understanding how freshwater biotic assemblages change across gradients of hydrology and anthropogenic-source disturbance in different streamflow regimes is crucial to managing for sustainable environmental flows and watershed conservation. We compiled long-term (1916–2016) occurrence records for fishes collected in the Ouachita-Ozark Interior Highlands and West Gulf Coastal Plain streams, together with hydrologic metrics calculated from daily streamflow data measured at USGS stream gauging stations (n = 111), to examine important drivers and thresholds for fish assemblage turnover in groundwater (GW), runoff (RO), and intermittent (INT) flow regimes. We also examined the importance of spatial gradients (latitude, longitude, elevation, drainage area) and anthropogenic-source stressors (Hydrologic Disturbance Index; HDI) for fish assemblage turnover using a gradient forest modeling approach. Watershed fragmentation was of high importance for fish assemblage turnover in RO and INT streams, while changes in dam storage were more important for fishes in GW streams. Hydrologic metrics describing seasonal and stochastic properties of daily streamflow (Mag6) were most important for fish assemblage turnover in INT streams. Timing of high flow events had significantly higher importance compared to flow magnitude, duration, and frequency metrics, especially for fish assemblages in GW and INT streams. The frequency and timing of low flow events had high importance for fish assemblage turnover across all stream flow classes, while the magnitude of low flows and the magnitude and rate of change of average flows was most important for INT stream fish assemblages. In addition to benefiting multi-species conservation and management actions through identification of local and regional flow-ecology relationships generalized across different flow regimes, the results of this study provide a better understanding of complex nonlinear threshold effects, which is critical to anticipating changes in aquatic ecosystems and communities.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of dissolved carbon dioxide to stimulate emergence of red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda: Cambaridae) from infested ponds

Invasive crayfish have adverse effects on habitats and native species. Control of invasive crayfish populations is a major challenge facing natural resource managers. This study evaluated the effectiveness and optimal conditions for the control agent carbon dioxide (CO2) which can be diffused into water to facilitate capture of red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii; RSC). The efficacy of CO2 shows promise in its use for a variety of invasive aquatic species. Here, we evaluate CO2&rsquo;s ability to stimulate movements towards the shoreline and/or induce complete terrestrial emergence from outdoor ponds. Twelve pond trials were conducted using three, 0.02-ha experimental ponds at Auburn University, Alabama, USA. Silt fencing was installed on dry land around the perimeter of each pond with the lower 0.3 m of fencing accordion-folded to provide shelter and a collection point for emerging crayfish. Each pond was stocked with 100 RSC before testing. Experimental treatment ponds were then injected with gaseous CO2 using porous air diffusers, whereas control ponds (C ponds) received no CO2. Multiple water quality parameters were monitored hourly. Three independent treatment scenarios with CO2 diffusion were: crayfish captured at the end of trial only (F: final), crayfish captured hourly (H: hourly), and incorporation of continuous inflow of fresh water at a flow rate of 0.2 L/s into the central catch basin to serve as a refuge with crayfish captured hourly (R: refuge). In control ponds, crayfish were captured at the end of trial only. In F ponds, CO2 diffusion for approximately five hours caused an average of 12% of total crayfish to emerge from the water. However, capture efficiency was increased to an average of 45% of total crayfish by increasing collection frequency to every hour and netting submerged crayfish near the water edge in addition to capturing terrestrially emerged crayfish. Presence of a freshwater inflow reduced capture efficiency in R ponds relative to H ponds. Odds of capturing crayfish improved with increased water temperature, increased CO2 concentration and increased crayfish mass. Based on results, we provide a set of predictive equations as well as interactive calculators to help natural resource managers explore several environmental and treatment-related scenarios that predict changes in capture probability in small research ponds. Carbon dioxide shows promises as a tool to increase capture rate of RSC. It is not likely to be 100% effective by itself, but could be a useful component of an integrated management strategy.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2001

Monitoring and verifying changes of organic carbon in soil

Changes in soil and vegetation management can impact strongly on the rates of carbon (C) accumulation and loss in soil, even over short periods of time. Detecting the effects of such changes in accumulation and loss rates on the amount of C stored in soil presents many challenges. Consideration of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of soil properties, general environmental conditions, and management history is essential when designing methods for monitoring and projecting changes in soil C stocks. Several approaches and tools will be required to develop reliable estimates of changes in soil C at scales ranging from the individual experimental plot to whole regional and national inventories. In this paper we present an overview of soil properties and processes that must be considered. We classify the methods for determining soil C changes as direct or indirect. Direct methods include field and laboratory measurements of total C, various physical and chemical fractions, and C isotopes. A promising direct method is eddy covariance measurement of CO 2 fluxes. Indirect methods include simple and stratified accounting, use of environmental and topographic relationships, and modeling approaches. We present a conceptual plan for monitoring soil C changes at regional scales that can be readily implemented. Finally, we anticipate significant improvements in soil C monitoring with the advent of instruments capable of direct and precise measurements in the field as well as methods for interpreting and extrapolating spatial and temporal information.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2000

2nd interface between ecology and land development in California

The 2nd Interface Between Ecology and Land Development Conference was held in association with Earth Day 1997, five years after the first Interface Conference. Rapid population growth in California has intensified the inevitable conflict between land development and preservation of natural ecosystems. Sustainable development requires wise use of diminishing natural resources and, where possible, restoration of damaged landscapes. These Earth Week Celebrations brought together resource managers, scientists, politicians, environmental consultants, and concerned citizens in an effort to improve the communication necessary to maintain our natural biodiversity, ecosystem processes and general quality of life. As discussed by our keynote speaker, Michael Soule, the best predictor of habitat loss is population growth and nowhere is this better illustrated than in California. As urban perimeters expand, the interface between wildlands and urban areas increases. Few problems are more vexing than how to manage the fire prone ecosystems indigenous to California at this urban interface. Today resource managers face increasing challenges of dealing with this problem and the lead-off section of the proceedings considers both the theoretical basis for making decisions related to prescribed burning and the practical application. Habitat fragmentation is an inevitable consequence of development patterns with significant impacts on animal and plant populations. Managers must be increasingly resourceful in dealing with problems of fragmentation and the often inevitable consequences, including susceptibility to invasive oganisms. One approach to dealing with fragmentation problems is through careful landplanning. California is the national leader in the integration of conservation and economics. On Earth Day 1991, Governor Pete Wilson presented an environmental agenda that promised to create between land owners and environmentalists, agreements that would guarantee the protection of -endangered species and out of this grew the pioneering initiative, known as the Natural Communities Conservation Planning (NCCP) program. California's vast expanse of seemingly endless resources has traditionally been viewed as justification for abusive land use practices. The modem day recognition that resources are finite has led to greater concern, not only for conserving what is left, but for restoring abused landscapes. Ecological restoration is a new science devoted to returning disturbed environments to a semblance of their 'pristine' state. Based on principles of 'revegetation,' restoration goes far beyond simple replanting, rather the ambition of ecological restoration is to return landscapes to functioning ecosystems and is the focus of the last section.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗