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USGS2017

Structural equation model of total phosphorus loads in the Red River of the North Basin, USA and Canada

Attribution of the causes of trends in nutrient loading is often limited to correlation, qualitative reasoning, or references to the work of others. This paper represents efforts to improve causal attribution of water-quality changes. The Red River of the North basin provides a regional test case because of international interest in the reduction of total phosphorus loads and the availability of long-term total phosphorus data and ancillary geospatial data with the potential to explain changes in water quality over time. The objectives of the study are to investigate structural equation modeling methods for application to water-quality problems and to test causal hypotheses related to the drivers of total phosphorus loads over the period 1970 to 2012. Multiple working hypotheses that explain total phosphorus loads and methods for estimating missing ancillary data were developed, and water-quality related challenges to structural equation modeling (including skewed data and scaling issues) were addressed. The model indicates that increased precipitation in season 1 (November–February) or season 2 (March–June) would increase total phosphorus loads in the basin. The effect of agricultural practices on total phosphorus loads was significant, although the effect is about one-third of the effect of season 1 precipitation. The structural equation model representing loads at six sites in the basin shows that climate and agricultural practices explain almost 60% of the annual total phosphorus load in the Red River of the North basin. The modeling process and the unexplained variance highlight the need for better ancillary long-term data for causal assessments.

Red River of the North Basin↗

USGS2013

Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: the case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city

Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and urban regions of other developing nations.

Accra↗

USGS1984

Changing patterns of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation and implications of climatic control on coal occurrence

Improved regional and interregional stratigraphic correlations of Pennsylvanian strata permit comparisons of vegetational changes in Euramerican coal swamps. The coal-swamp vegetation is known directly from in situ coal-ball peat deposits from more than 65 coals in the United States and Europe. Interpretations of coal-swamp floras on the basis of coal-ball peat studies are extended to broader regional and stratigraphic patterns by use of coal palynology. Objectives of the quantitative analyses of the vegetation in relation to coal are to determine the botanical constituents at the peat stage and their environmental implications for plant growth and peat accumulation. Morphological and paleoecological analyses provide a basis for deducing freshwater regimes of coal swamps. Changes in composition of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation are quire similar from one paralic coal region to another and show synchrony that is attributable to climate. Paleobotany and paleogeography of the Euramerican province indicate a moist tropical paleoclimate. Rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration were the variable climatic controls in the distribution of coal-swamp vegetation, peat accumulation and coal resources. In relative terms of climatic wetness the Pennsylvanian Period is divisible into five intervals, which include two relatively drier intervals that developed during the Lower-Middle and Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian transitions. The climate during Early Pennsylvanian time was moderately wet and the median in moisture availability. Early Middle Pennsylvanian was drier, probably seasonally dry-wet; late Middle Pennsylvanian was the wettest in the Midcontinent; early Late Pennsylvanian was the driest; and late Late Pennsylvanian was probably the wettest in the Dunkard Basin. The five climatic intervals represent a general means of dividing coal resources within each region into groups with similar botanical constituents and environments of peat accumulation. Regional differences in basinal geology and climate were significant variables, but the synchronous control of paleoclimate was of primary importance.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2007

Empirical evaluation of decision support systems: Needs, definitions, potential methods, and an example pertaining to waterfowl management

Decision support systems are often not empirically evaluated, especially the underlying modelling components. This can be attributed to such systems necessarily being designed to handle complex and poorly structured problems and decision making. Nonetheless, evaluation is critical and should be focused on empirical testing whenever possible. Verification and validation, in combination, comprise such evaluation. Verification is ensuring that the system is internally complete, coherent, and logical from a modelling and programming perspective. Validation is examining whether the system is realistic and useful to the user or decision maker, and should answer the question: “Was the system successful at addressing its intended purpose?” A rich literature exists on verification and validation of expert systems and other artificial intelligence methods; however, no single evaluation methodology has emerged as preeminent. At least five approaches to validation are feasible. First, under some conditions, decision support system performance can be tested against a preselected gold standard. Second, real-time and historic data sets can be used for comparison with simulated output. Third, panels of experts can be judiciously used, but often are not an option in some ecological domains. Fourth, sensitivity analysis of system outputs in relation to inputs can be informative. Fifth, when validation of a complete system is impossible, examining major components can be substituted, recognizing the potential pitfalls. I provide an example of evaluation of a decision support system for trumpeter swan ( Cygnus buccinator ) management that I developed using interacting intelligent agents, expert systems, and a queuing system. Predicted swan distributions over a 13-year period were assessed against observed numbers. Population survey numbers and banding (ringing) studies may provide long term data useful in empirical evaluation of decision support.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2018

Identifying and eliminating sources of recreational water quality degradation along an urban coast

Restoration of highly degraded urban coastal waters often requires large-scale, complex projects, but in the interim, smaller-scale efforts can provide immediate improvements to water quality conditions for visitor use. We examined short-term efforts to improve recreational water quality near the Grand Calumet River (GC) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Identified as an Area of Concern (AOC) by the International Joint Commission, the GC has experienced years of industrial and municipal waste discharges, and as a result, coastal beaches have some of the highest rates of beach closings (>70%) in the United States. Project objectives were to identify sources of microbial contamination and to evaluate a short-term management solution to decrease beach closings: during 2015 (partial) and 2016 (season-long), canines were used to deter gull presence. Water samples were analyzed for Escherichia coli in 2015 and 2016, and fecal sources were evaluated using microbial source tracking markers (2015): human ( Bacteroides HF183, Methanobrevibacter nifH ), gull (Gull2), and dog (DogBact). Hydrometeorological conditions were simultaneously measured. Results indicated that human, gull, and canine fecal sources were present, with gulls being the dominant source. Escherichia coli densities were highly correlated with number of gulls present, Gull2 marker, and turbidity. Gull deterrence decreased E. coli and Gull2 marker detection during 2015, but numbers rebounded after program completion. The full-season program in 2016 resulted in lower E. coli densities and fewer beach closings. Large-scale restoration efforts are underway at this location, but short-term, small-scale projects can be useful for reducing beach closings and restoring ecosystem services.

Indiana↗

USGS2021

Benzotriazole concentrations in airport runoff are reduced following changes in airport deicer formulations

A comparison of the presence of additives in airport deicers commonly used in the United States and in airport runoff was conducted with data collected before and after changes in deicer formulations. Three isomers of benzotriazoles (BTs)—4-methyl-1H-benzotriazole (4-MeBT), 5-methyl-1H-benzotriazole (5-MeBT), and 1H-benzotriazole (1H-BT)—are corrosion inhibitors added to some formulations of airport deicers and are reported to be a source of aquatic toxicity in streams receiving airport runoff. Concentrations of BT in aircraft deicers and anti-icing fluids (ADAF) were reduced over time but were not reduced in potassium acetate airfield-pavement deicer material (PDM) that was used throughout the study period. Streams receiving runoff from Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, were monitored from 2004 to 2019 for BTs, with concentrations of 4-MeBT varying from <0.35 to 4600 µg/L, 5-MeBT varying from <0.25 to 6600 µg/L, and 1H-BT varying from <0.25 to 150 µg/L. Median 4-MeBT concentrations at sites downstream from the airport decreased by approximately 74%, 5-MeBT by 69%, and 1H-BT by 82% following reduction in BTs in ADAF formulations, resulting in a reduction in the potential for aquatic toxicity in receiving streams. A change in residuals from regression analysis between freezing point depressants and BTs indicate that the reduction in BT concentrations in airport runoff was a result of BT reduction in ADAF formulations, but PDM may still be a substantial source of BTs in airport runoff. Because BTs are a source of aquatic toxicity in airport deicers, the reductions in BTs in the common deicers observed in this study can be used to demonstrate the potential for a reduction in the effects to aquatic organisms in airport runoff, resulting in greater likelihood of meeting aquatic toxicity requirements in airport stormwater permits, and potentially driving airports, airlines, and permit holders to advocate further reduction or elimination of BTs and other harmful contaminants in airport deicers.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Heterogeneity in fire severity within early season and late season prescribed burns in a mixed-conifer forest

Structural heterogeneity in forests of the Sierra Nevada was historically produced through variation in fire regimes and local environmental factors. The amount of heterogeneity that prescription burning can achieve might now be more limited owing to high fuel loads and increased fuel continuity. Topography, woody fuel loading, and vegetative composition were quantified in plots within replicated early and late season burn units. Two indices of fire severity were evaluated in the same plots after the burns. Scorch height ranged from 2.8 to 25.4 m in early season plots and 3.1 to 38.5 m in late season plots, whereas percentage of ground surface burned ranged from 24 to 96% in early season plots and from 47 to 100% in late season plots. Scorch height was greatest in areas with steeper slopes, higher basal area of live trees, high percentage of basal area composed of pine, and more small woody fuel. Percentage of area burned was greatest in areas with less bare ground and rock cover (more fuel continuity), steeper slopes, and units burned in the fall (lower fuel moisture). Thus topographic and biotic factors still contribute to the abundant heterogeneity in fire severity with prescribed burning, even under the current high fuel loading conditions. Burning areas with high fuel loads in early season when fuels are moister may lead to patterns of heterogeneity in fire effects that more closely approximate the expected patchiness of historical fires.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2026

Rare earth element potential in coal and coal ash in the U.S. Gulf Coast

United States heavy reliance on imports of critical minerals (CMs), including rare earth elements (REEs), underscores the importance of development of domestic sources. The study objective was to quantify CM and REE concentrations in coal and coal ash in the US Gulf Coast region. CM and REE concentrations were measured for 118 samples from outcrops and 14 mines in the Gulf Coast. Results show that total REE + Yttrium (REY) concentrations (dry coal basis) are comparable to those of the upper continental crust (UCC) with localized hot spots, such as the Texas Gibbons Creek mine (REY ≤ ~ 2860 ppm). When normalized to UCC REY concentration (169 ppm, dry coal basis), REY to UCC ratios for Gulf Coast coal samples range from 0.1 to 17 (median ratio 0.6). REE extractability from lignites is high (median: 63%–93%) using environmentally benign weak acid. In addition to raw coal, coal ash from power plants could also serve as an REE source with a median ratio of REY in ash relative to coal of 4; however, extractability from coal ash is generally much lower (≤ 5% using the same weak acid as in coal). The median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal, assuming 70% extractability, is $3.2 per tonne of coal and $186 billion based on 58 billion metric tonnes of dry coal in the Gulf Coast. REEs important for magnets (Pr + Nd + Tb + Dy) account for ~ 80% of the total value. The corresponding median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal ash, assuming ~ 30% extractability, is ~$4.4 per tonne of ash and $1.2 billion based on 258 million tonnes of ash. REE production from coal would likely require co-products, such as activated carbon or humic acids, to attain economic viability. Production of REEs from coal ash could offset remediation costs related to potential water contamination. This reconnaissance study shows the potential for REE production from coal and coal ash in the Gulf Coast; however, carbon coproducts and/or societal benefits would likely be required for socioeconomic viability.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2007

Development of a mercury speciation, fate, and biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model: Application to Lahontan Reservoir (Nevada, USA)

A mathematically linked mercury transport, speciation, kinetic, and simple biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model has been developed. An extension of the metal transport and speciation (TRANSPEC) model, BIOTRANSPEC estimates the fate and biotic uptake of inorganic (Hg(II)), elemental (Hg(0)) and organic (MeHg) forms of mercury and their species in the dissolved, colloidal (e.g., dissolved organic matter [DOM]), and particulate phases of surface aquatic systems. A pseudo-steady state version of the model was used to describe mercury dynamics in Lahontan Reservoir (near Carson City, NV, USA), where internal loading of the historically deposited mercury is remobilized, thereby maintaining elevated water concentrations. The Carson River is the main source of total mercury (THg), of which more than 90% is tightly bound in a gold-silver-mercury amalgam, to the system through loadings in the spring, with negligible input from the atmospheric deposition. The speciation results suggest that aqueous species are dominated by Hg-DOM, Hg(OH)2, and HgClOH. Sediment-to-water diffusion of MeHg and Hg-DOM accounts for approximately 10% of total loadings to the water column. The water column acts as a net sink for MeHg by reducing its levels through two competitive processes: Uptake by fish, and net MeHg demethylation. Although reservoir sediments produce significant amounts of MeHg (4 g/d), its transport from sediment to water is limited (1.6 g/d), possibly because of its adsorption on metal oxides of iron and manganese at the sediment-water interface. Fish accumulate approximately 45% of the total MeHg mass in the water column, and 9% of total MeHg uptake by fish leaves the system because of fishing. Results from this new model reiterate the previous conclusion that more than 90% of THg input is retained in sediment, which perpetuates elevated water concentrations.

Nevada↗

USGS2022

Declines in reproductive condition of male largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) following seasonal exposure to estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds

Reproductive abnormalities, that could lead to possible effects at the population level, have been observed in wild fish throughout the United States, with high prevalence in largemouth bass (LMB; Micropterus salmoides ) and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Estrone (E1) and atrazine (ATR) are common environmental contaminants often associated with agricultural land use. 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE2) is a contaminant associated with wastewater treatment effluent, and a representative, well-studied estrogen commonly used for fish toxicity testing. Our objective was to assess whether early gonad recrudescence in adult fish was a period of sensitivity for alterations in reproductive condition and function. Adult male LMB were exposed from post-spawning to early gonad recrudescence to either a mixture of E1 (47.9 ng/L) + ATR (5.4 µg/L), or EE2 (2.4 ng/L) in outdoor experimental ponds. Gonad samples were collected from fish just prior to the start of exposure (July), at the end of the exposure period (December), the following spring just prior to spawning (April), and post spawning (May). Gonadosomatic index (GSI) was significantly reduced in E1 + ATR-exposed and EE2-exposed males compared to control at every post-exposure time point. Reduced sperm count and sperm motility were observed in the mixture treatment (E1 + ATR) compared to the control. Sperm motility was also reduced in the EE2 treatment. These data together indicate that estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds can lessen the reproductive condition of adult male LMB, and that effects of exposure during early gonad recrudescence can persist at least through the subsequent spawning cycle.

International Journal of Molecular Sciences↗

USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2006

Impacts of aircraft deicer and anti-icer runoff on receiving waters from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Texas, USA

From October 2002 to April 2004, data were collected from Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport (TX, USA) outfalls and receiving waters (Trigg Lake and Big Bear Creek) to document the magnitude and potential effects of aircraft deicer and anti-icer fluid (ADAF) runoff on water quality. Glycol concentrations at outfalls ranged from less than 18 to 23,800 mg/L, whereas concentrations in Big Bear Creek were less because of dilution, dispersion, and degradation, ranging from less than 18 to 230 mg/L. Annual loading results indicate that 10 and 35% of what was applied to aircraft was discharged to Big Bear Creek in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Glycol that entered Trigg Lake was diluted and degraded before reaching the lake outlet. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations at airport outfalls sometimes were low (<2.0 mg/L) but typical of what was measured in an urban reference stream. In comparison, the DO concentration at Trigg Lake monitoring sites was consistently greater than 5.5 mg/L during the monitoring period, probably because of the installation of aerators in the lake by DFW personnel. The DO concentration in Big Bear Creek was very similar at sites upstream and downstream of airport influence (>5.0 mg/L). Results of toxicity tests indicate that effects on Ceriodaphnia dubia, Pimephales promelas, and Selanastrum capricornutum are influenced by type IV ADAF (anti-icer), not just type I ADAF (deicer) as is more commonly assumed. ?? 2006 SETAC.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Museum metabarcoding: a novel method revealing gut helminth communities of small mammals across space and time

Natural history collections spanning multiple decades provide fundamental historical baselines to measure and understand changing biodiversity. New technologies such as next generation DNA sequencing (NGS) have considerably increased the potential of museum specimens to address significant questions regarding the impact of environmental changes on host and parasite/pathogen dynamics. We developed a new technique to identify intestinal helminth parasites and applied it to shrews (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae) because they are ubiquitous, occupy diverse habitats, and host a diverse and abundant parasite fauna. Notably, we included museum specimens preserved in various ways to explore the efficacy of using metabarcoding analyses that may enable identification of helminth symbiont communities from historical archives. We successfully sequenced the parasite communities (using 12S mtDNA, 16S mtDNA, 28S rDNA) of 23 whole gastrointestinal (GI) tracts. All GI tracts were obtained from the Museum of Southwestern Biology (MSB), USA, and from recent field collections, varying both in time since fixation (ranging from 4 months to 16 years) and preservation method (70% or 95% ethanol stored at room temperature, or flash frozen in liquid nitrogen and stored at -80°C). Our proof of concept demonstrates the feasibility of applying NGS techniques to authoritatively identify the parasite/pathogen communities within whole GI tracts from museum specimens of varying age and fixation, and the value of future preservation of host-associated whole GI tracts in public research archives. This powerful approach facilitates future comparative examinations of the distributions and interactions among multiple associated groups of organisms through time and space.

International Journal for Parasitology↗

USGS1994

Use of molecular techniques to evaluate the survival of a microorganism injected into an aquifer

A PCR primer set and an internal probe that are specific for Pseudomonas sp. strain B13, a 3-chlorobenzoate-metabolizing strain, were developed. Using this primer set and probe, we were able to detect Pseudomonas sp. strain B13 DNA sequences in DNA extracted from aquifer samples 14.5 months after Pseudomonas sp. strain B13 had been injected into a sand and gravel aquifer. This primer set and probe were also used to analyze isolates from 3-chlorobenzoate enrichments of the aquifer samples by Southern blot analysis. Hybridization of Southern blots with the Pseudomonas sp. strain B13-specific probe and a catabolic probe in conjunction with restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of ribosome genes was used to determine that viable Pseudomonas sp. strain B13 persisted in this environment. We isolated a new 3-chlorobenzoate-degrading strain from one of these enrichment cultures. The B13-specific probe does not hybridize to DNA from this isolate. The new strain could be the result of gene exchange between Pseudomonas sp. strain B13 and an indigenous bacterium. This speculation is based on an RFLP pattern of ribosome genes that differs from that of Pseudomonas sp. strain B13, the fact that identically sized restriction fragments hybridized to the catabolic gene probe, and the absence of any enrichable 3-chlorobenzoate-degrading strains in the aquifer prior to inoculation.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2008

Persistent environmental pollutants in eggs of aplomado falcons from Northern Chihuahua, Mexico, and South Texas, USA

The northern aplomado falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis) disappeared from south Texas in the 1940s. Due to great success in the release of captive-reared aplomado falcons in south Texas, there are currently more than 40 established nesting pairs in the region. Addled eggs from aplomado falcons nesting in northern Chihuahua and south Texas were analyzed to determine organochlorine (OC) and inorganic element contaminant burdens and their potential association with egg failures and effects on reproduction. Among the OCs, DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene] was present at the highest concentrations (range 262-21487??ng/g wet weight) followed by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs, range 88-3274??ng/g ww). DDE was greater (P = 0.03) in eggs from El Sueco (Chihuahua, Mexico) than in those from Matagorda Island (Texas, USA). DDE concentrations in eggs of aplomado falcons from El Sueco were elevated; however, reproductive success in the two Chihuahuan populations did not seem to be affected by DDE. DDE and metals in potential avian prey of the aplomado falcon from Matagorda Island were very low and below levels in the diet at which some negative effects might be expected. Except for mercury (Hg), metal concentrations in eggs were fairly low and were not different among locations in Chihuahua and south Texas. Hg was somewhat elevated and was greater (P < 0.001) in Texas than in the Chihuahua locations. Periodic monitoring of Hg concentrations in addled eggs of aplomado falcons in south Texas is recommended to continue evaluating potential negative effects on their recovery. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environment International↗

USGS2020

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS1993

Paper plant effluent revisited-southern Lake Champlain, Vermont and New York

We used geologic and geochemical techniques to document the change with time of the distribution and concentration of contaminated bottom sediments in southern Lake Champlain near an International Paper Company plant. Our work, initiated in 1972, was expanded on behalf of Vermont citizens in a class-action suit against the International Paper Company. To update our 1972-1973 results, we collected nine cores in 1988 upstream and downstream from the paper plant effluent diffuser. Water content, volatile solids, organic carbon, and three ratios, Al/Si, Cl/Si, and S/Si, in addition to megascopic and microscopic observations, were evaluated to identify and trace the distribution of effluent and to measure the thickness of sediment affected by or containing components of effluent. Analyses were carried out on samples from the cores as well as from effluent collected directly from the plant's waste treatment facility. In 1973, two years after the plant opened, we cored near the diffuser; sediment contaminated with effluent was 4.5 cm thick. In 1988, in the same area, sediment contaminated with effluent was 17 cm thick. In 15 years, water content increased from 72 to 85 percent, volatile solids from 7 to 20 percent, and organic carbon from 2 to 12 percent. Cl/Si and S/Si were high only near the diffuser and were zero elsewhere. In the area of the diffuser, contaminated sediment appears to be accumulating at a rate of about 1 cm/yr. At a control location 22 km upstream (south) from the plant, the top, poorly consoli-dated layer was only 1 cm or less thick both in 1973 and in 1988. The class-action suit was settled in favor of the plaintiffs for $5 million. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

New York, Vermont↗