Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “The Conversation”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Strategic conservation for lesser prairie-chickens among landscapes of varying anthropogenic influence

For millennia grasslands have provided a myriad of ecosystem services and have been coupled with human resource use. The loss of 46% of grasslands worldwide necessitates the need for conservation that is spatially, temporally, and socioeconomically strategic. In the Southern Great Plains of the United States, conversion of native grasslands to cropland, woody encroachment, and establishment of vertical anthropogenic features have made large intact grasslands rare for lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). However, it remains unclear how the spatial distribution of grasslands and anthropogenic features constrain populations and influence conservation. We estimated the distribution of lesser prairie-chickens using data from individuals marked with GPS transmitters in Kansas and Colorado, USA, and empirically derived relationships with anthropogenic structure densities and grassland composition. Our model suggested decreased probability of use in 2-km radius (12.6 km 2 ) landscapes that had greater than two vertical features, two oil wells, 8 km of county roads, and 0.15 km of major roads or transmission lines. Predicted probability of use was greatest in 5-km radius landscapes that were 77% grassland. Based on our model predictions, ~10% of the current expected lesser prairie-chicken distribution was available as habitat. We used our estimated species distribution to provide spatially explicit prescriptions for CRP enrollment and tree removal in locations most likely to benefit lesser prairie-chickens. Spatially incentivized CRP sign up has the potential to provide 4189 km 2 of additional habitat and strategic application of tree removal has the potential to restore 1154 km 2 . Tree removal and CRP enrollment are conservation tools that can align with landowner goals and are much more likely to be effective on privately owned working lands.

Colorado, Kansas↗
USGS2023

A hidden cost of single species management: Habitat-relationships reveal potential negative effects of conifer removal on a non-target species

Land management priorities and decisions may result in population declines for non-target wildlife species. In the western United States, large-scale removal of conifer from sagebrush ecosystems ( Artemisia spp.) is occurring to recover greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) populations and may result in pinyon jay ( Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus ) habitat loss. Jay populations have experienced long-term declines, due to unknown causes, resulting in a recent petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model of jay abundance, using 13 years of point count data (2008–2020) collected across the western United States, to estimate regional population trends, model habitat requirements, assess conifer removal effects on jays, and generate hypotheses regarding jay population declines. Our model included climate and landcover covariates and regional trends in pinyon jay density. We applied our modeled habitat relationships to map predicted pinyon jay density, given 2008 and 2020 resource conditions, and map density changes from 2008 to 2020. Our results indicate pinyon jay populations are declining within Bird Conservation Region 16. Jay density was positively associated with sagebrush cover, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and pinyon-juniper cover. Conversely, jay populations were negatively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found higher pinyon jay densities within locations possessing both sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover; conditions characteristic of phase I and II conifer encroachment which are preferentially targeted for conifer removal to restore sagebrush communities. Conifer removal, if conducted at locations with high pinyon jay densities, is therefore likely to negatively affect jay abundance.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
USGS2024

Climatic drought and trophic disruption in an endemic subalpine Hawaiian forest bird

Overexploitation, habitat conversion, and introduced species have caused unprecedented extinctions and heavily degraded native bird populations in island ecosystems. In the Hawaiian Islands, stemming these losses has proven difficult as the highly specialized avifauna are often impacted – among other things – by poorly understood trophic disruptions as well as persistent climatic shifts. Here we investigate these dynamics by examining the trophic positions of 7 different taxa of producers and consumers across the last century in the subalpine māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) forest ecosystem on the island of Hawaiʻi. From museum collections and contemporary sampling, we analyzed the stable nitrogen (δ 15 N) values of producers and consumers to identify trophic and source amino acids and derive trophic enrichment constants specific to this food web. This enables us to reconstruct the diet of the palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a critically endangered finch whose population recently declined 90 %. Our results show that from 1890 to 2006, the palila trophic position declined from 2.6 to 2.2, with cascading implications for its diet. Bayesian mixing model reconstructions indicate that palila trophic position changes likely arose from a 76 % decline (69.3 % to 16.6 % of diet) in the consumption of native moth caterpillars, and a 172 % increase (30.7 % to 83.4 %) in native plants. From the available ecosystem variables, exploratory Bayesian multiple regressions selected surface temperature changes, and the interactions of surface temperatures with drought and caterpillar parasitism as the primary drivers of these trophic changes. Despite the predicted increases of warming and drought, management interventions may build resiliency in this unique island ecosystem.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

A regional simulation modeling framework for evaluating invasive annual grass management across the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses (IAG) continue to spread within the sagebrush biome of the western United States, degrading plant communities and wildlife habitat, decreasing forage for ranching livelihoods, and heightening wildfire risk. Effective management of IAGs requires action and long-term strategic planning across the sagebrush biome, but the cumulative effects of IAG treatments over time and space are not well understood, especially over broad extents defined for strategies like the Sagebrush Conservation Design. We developed a simulation model and sampling framework that allow local-scale actions to be ‘scaled up’ to evaluate large-scale regional and biome-wide management strategy outcomes. We worked with natural resource managers and experts to co-develop a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model of IAG dynamics in sagebrush landscapes that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies. We evaluated our framework by contrasting two baseline scenarios in terms of their long-term effects on the sagebrush biome. We show that focusing management efforts on moderate to high IAG cover was effective at reducing full conversion to IAGs but failed to prevent widespread establishment of IAGs in core sagebrush areas, exposing them to increased risk of wildfire and wildlife habitat degradation. The results of our model help quantify the extent of the problem that IAGs pose to sagebrush ecosystems given current knowledge and management efforts. Our framework provides a platform to explore alternative management strategy outcomes and can help managers develop informed conservation plans with realistic expectations for return on investment of resources committed to sagebrush landscapes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2014

MTpy: A Python toolbox for magnetotellurics

We present the software package MTpy that allows handling, processing, and imaging of magnetotelluric (MT) data sets. Written in Python, the code is open source, containing sub-packages and modules for various tasks within the standard MT data processing and handling scheme. Besides the independent definition of classes and functions, MTpy provides wrappers and convenience scripts to call standard external data processing and modelling software. In its current state, modules and functions of MTpy work on raw and pre-processed MT data. However, opposite to providing a static compilation of software, we prefer to introduce MTpy as a flexible software toolbox, whose contents can be combined and utilised according to the respective needs of the user. Just as the overall functionality of a mechanical toolbox can be extended by adding new tools, MTpy is a flexible framework, which will be dynamically extended in the future. Furthermore, it can help to unify and extend existing codes and algorithms within the (academic) MT community. In this paper, we introduce the structure and concept of MTpy . Additionally, we show some examples from an everyday work-flow of MT data processing: the generation of standard EDI data files from raw electric ( E -) and magnetic flux density ( B -) field time series as input, the conversion into MiniSEED data format, as well as the generation of a graphical data representation in the form of a Phase Tensor pseudosection.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS2007

On the formation and structure of rare-earth element complexes in aqueous solutions under hydrothermal conditions with new data on gadolinium aqua and chloro complexes

Synchrotron X-ray spectroscopy experiments were made on the Gd(III) aqua and chloro complexes in low pH aqueous solutions at temperatures ranging from 25 to 500????C and at pressures up to 480??MPa using a hydrothermal diamond anvil cell. Analysis of fluorescence Gd L3-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectra measured from a 0.006m Gd/0.16m HNO3 aqueous solution at temperatures up to 500????C and at pressures up to 260??MPa shows that the Gd-O distance of the Gd3+ aqua ion decreases steadily at a rate of ??? 0.007??A??/100????C whereas the number of coordinated H2O molecules decreases from 9.0 ?? 0.5 to 7.0 ?? 0.4. The loss of water molecules in the Gd3+ aqua ion inner hydration shell over this temperature range (a 22% reduction) is smaller than exhibited by the Yb3+ aqua ion (42% reduction) indicating that the former is significantly more stable than the later. We conjecture that the anomalous enrichment of Gd reported from measurement of REE concentrations in ocean waters may be attributed to the enhanced stability of the Gd3+ aqua ion relative to other REEs. Gd L3-edge XAFS measurements of 0.006m and 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solutions at temperatures up to 500????C and pressures up to 480??MPa reveal that the onset of significant Gd3+-Cl- association occurs around 300????C. Partially-hydrated stepwise inner-sphere complexes most likely of the type Gd(H2O)??-nCln+3-n occur in the chloride solutions at higher temperatures, where ?? ??? 8 at 300????C decreasing slightly to an intermediate value between 7 and 8 upon approaching 500????C. This is the first direct evidence for the occurrence of partially-hydrated REE Gd (this study) and Yb [Mayanovic, R.A., Jayanetti, S., Anderson, A.J., Bassett, W.A., Chou, I-M., 2002a. The structure of Yb3+ aquo ion and chloro complexes in aqueous solutions at up to 500 ??C and 270 MPa. J. Phys. Chem. A 106, 6591-6599.] chloro complexes in hydrothermal solutions. The number of chlorides (n) of the partially-hydrated Gd(III) chloro complexes increases steadily with temperature from 0.4 ?? 0.2 to 1.7 ?? 0.3 in the 0.006m chloride solution and from 0.9 ?? 0.7 to 1.8 ?? 0.7 in the 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solution in the 300-500????C range. Conversely, the number of H2O ligands of Gd(H2O)??-nCln+3-n complexes decreases steadily from 8.9 ?? 0.4 to 5.8 ?? 0.7 in the 0.006m GdCl3 aqueous solution and from 9.0 ?? 0.5 to 5.3 ?? 1.0 in the 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solution at temperatures from 25 to 500????C. Analysis of our results shows that the chloride ions partially displace the inner-shell water molecules during Gd(III) complex formation under hydrothermal conditions. The Gd-OH2 bond of the partially-hydrated Gd(III) chloro complexes exhibits slightly smaller rates of length contraction (??? 0.005??A??/100????C) for both solutions. The structural aspects of chloride speciation of Gd(III) as measured from this study and of Yb(III) as measured from our previous experiments are consistent with the solubility of these and other REE in deep-sea hydrothermal fluids. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2026

Rhyolitic and basaltic reference materials for TC/EA analysis: Investigation of water extraction and D/H ratios

Increasingly, water and D/H ratios of silicic and basaltic glasses are used to investigate magmatic degassing and secondary hydration, as well as for study these parameters in the mantle and crustal magmas. The advent of the High Temperature Conversion Element Analyzer (TC/EA) continuous flow mass spectrometry made the determination of hydrogen isotopes relatively quick and precise (±0.04 wt% H 2 O and 1–3‰ δ 2 H). Many labs around the world have such systems, thus there is a need to develop both silicic and basaltic volcanic glass reference materials (RMs) that can be used for interlaboratory comparison by bulk and microanalytical methods. Here, we report results of such investigation run against solid RMs (USGS micas) and water RMs (including VSMOW) in three different labs and describe analytical protocols. We report on the effects of glass size fraction, the mass of aliquots measured, and yield dependency for two glasses: UOR (drill cutting of IDDP-1 rhyolite, Iceland) and UOB (an E -MORB basalt from the East Pacific Rise). Proposed RM values are: UOB rhyolitic glass ( n = 31): H 2 O = 1.84 ± 0.06 wt% (1 s.d.), and δ 2 H = −115.5 ± 2.6‰ (1 s.d.). UOB basaltic glass ( n = 60): H 2 O = 0.37 ± 0.03 wt% (1 s.d.), and δ 2 H = −82.1 ± 5.7‰ (1 s.d.). Glass reference materials are available in 100 mg quantities from the Stable Isotope Laboratory at the University of Oregon for a nominal fee.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2008

Bioassay for estimating the biogenic methane-generating potential of coal samples

Generation of secondary biogenic methane in coal beds is likely controlled by a combination of factors such as the bioavailability of coal carbon, the presence of a microbial community to convert coal carbon to methane, and an environment supporting microbial growth and methanogenesis. A set of treatments and controls was developed to bioassay the bioavailability of coal for conversion to methane under defined laboratory conditions. Treatments included adding a well-characterized consortium of bacteria and methanogens (enriched from modern wetland sediments) and providing conditions to support endemic microbial activity. The contribution of desorbed methane in the bioassays was determined in treatments with bromoethane sulfonic acid, an inhibitor of microbial methanogenesis. The bioassay compared 16 subbituminous coal samples collected from beds in Texas (TX), Wyoming (WY), and Alaska (AK), and two bituminous coal samples from Pennsylvania (PA). New biogenic methane was observed in several samples of subbituminous coal with the microbial consortium added, but endemic activity was less commonly observed. The highest methane generation [80 µmol methane/g coal (56 scf/ton or 1.75 cm 3 /g)] was from a south TX coal sample that was collected from a non-gas-producing well. Subbituminous coals from the Powder River Basin, WY and North Slope Borough, AK contained more sorbed (original) methane than the TX coal sample and generated 0–23 µmol/g (up to 16 scf/ton or 0.5 cm 3 /g) new biogenic methane in the bioassay. Standard indicators of thermal maturity such as burial depth, nitrogen content, and calorific value did not explain differences in biogenic methane among subbituminous coal samples. No original methane was observed in two bituminous samples from PA, nor was any new methane generated in bioassays of these samples. The bioassay offers a new tool for assessing the potential of coal for biogenic methane generation, and provides a platform for studying the mechanisms involved in this economically important activity.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2016

Organic petrology and geochemistry of mudrocks from the lacustrine Lucaogou Formation, Santanghu Basin, northwest China: Application to lake basin evolution

Exploration for tight oil in the frontier Santanghu Basin of northwest China has resulted in recent commercial discoveries sourced from the lacustrine Upper Permian Lucaogou Formation, already considered a “world class source rock” in the Junggar Basin to the west. Here we apply an integrated analytical program to carbonate-dominated mudrocks from the Lucaogou Formation in Santanghu Basin to document the nature of organic matter (OM) in the context of an evolving lake system. The organic-rich samples (TOC 2.8–11.4 wt%; n = 10) were widely spaced from an ~ 200 m cored section, interpreted from textural and mineralogical evidence to document transition from a lower under-filled to an overlying balanced-filled lake. Organic matter is dominated by moderate to strongly fluorescent amorphous material with Type I geochemical signature (HI values 510–755; n = 10) occurring in a continuum from lamellar stringers, 10–20 μm thick, some ≥ 1 mm in length (possible microbial mat; preserved only in lower under-filled section) to finely-disseminated amorphous groundmass intimately intermixed with mineral matrix. Biomarkers for methanotrophs and photosynthetic cyanobacteria indicate a complex microbial consortium. A unicellular prasinophyte green alga(?), similar to Tasmanites in marine rocks, is present as discrete flattened discs 50–100 μm in diameter. Type III OM including vitrinite (some fluorescent) and inertinite also is abundant. Solid bitumen, indicating local kerogen conversion, fills voids and occurs throughout the cored section. Vitrinite reflectance values are 0.47–0.58%, consistent with strong OM fluorescence but may be “suppressed”. Other proxies, e.g., biomarker parameters, indicate the Lucaogou Formation is in the early oil window at this location. On average, slightly more amorphous OM and telalginite are present in the lower section, consistent with a shallow, stratified, saline environment with low sediment dilution. More inertinite is present in the upper section, indicating greater terrestrial influx and consistent with higher quartz and plagioclase content (dominantly authigenic chalcedony and albite). Laminated mudstones in the upper section indicate anoxia prevented bioturbation from benthic grazing, also indicating stratified water column conditions. A decrease upsection in authigenic dolomite with reciprocal increase of ankerite/siderite is consistent with decreasing salinity, as is an overall decrease in gammacerane index values. These observations suggest evolution from a shallow, stratified evaporative (saline) setting to a deeper, stratified freshwater basin with higher water input during Lucaogou deposition. The evolution from an under-filled to balance-filled lake in Santanghu Basin is similar to Lucaogou deposition in Junggar Basin, suggesting similar tectonic and climatic controls. Paleoclimate interpretations from other researchers in this area suggested an evolution from semi-arid to humid conditions during the Roadian; we interpret that the evolution from an under-filled to balanced-filled lake seen in our data is in response to climate change, and may represent increased groundwater delivery to the Santanghu Basin.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2019

Reflectance increase from broad beam ion milling of coals and organic-rich shales due to increased surface flatness

Broad ion beam (BIB) milling is useful in organic petrology because it can yield flat sample surfaces and avert the ‘smearing’ of organic matter (OM) that results from traditional mechanical polishing. This potentially makes BIB especially useful in the study of nano-porosity, where even minor mechanical disruption of the sample surface distorts the sample characteristic of interest—the pore structure. However, several studies have observed an OM reflectance increase after BIB milling, concluding that ion milling may cause thermal alteration to OM surfaces. To better understand ion milling effects on organic matter, coal (subbituminous, high volatile bituminous, medium volatile bituminous, anthracite) and shale [Bakken Formation, Ohio Shale-Huron Member (5), Kimmeridge Clay Formation, Alum Shale, New Albany Shale] samples were prepared using traditional mechanical polishing methods. Reflectance measurements (% Ro) were gathered on all maceral types present before BIB milling, followed by re-measurement of OM reflectance at the same locations after milling. Most OM increased in reflectance after BIB milling, with some exceptions in high maturity samples. Liptinite macerals in both coal and shale samples showed the greatest percent reflectance increase on average (+133%; n=338), followed by solid bitumen (+49%; n=313), vitrinite (+26%; n=413), and inertinite (+9%; n=220). Despite the increases to OM reflectance caused by BIB milling, no evidence was found for kerogen conversion (e.g., change in maceral abundances), or for migration of newly generated petroleum (e.g., pseudomorphic replacement of kerogen by solid bitumen). Such changes occur when samples are thermally altered from immature conditions into the oil window (e.g., by hydrous pyrolysis), and, if the increases in OM reflectance were thermally driven (by BIB milling), they should have been observed in the above experiments. Herein, we also used atomic force microscopy to document a decrease in surface roughness of correlative locations of OM on pre- and post-ion milled samples. This improved surface polish caused by BIB milling appears to be the root cause of increased OM reflectance, as no other supporting evidence of thermal alteration could be found. That is, the fraction of light formerly lost to oblique scatter in diffuse reflectance from a mechanically polished surface is converted to specular reflectance after BIB ion milling. Thus the light leaves the surface at a near normal angle and returns to the detector, resulting in increased OM reflectance.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2009

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems↗
USGS2025

Rising sea level reduces carbon sequestration and CO2 and N2O fluxes while promoting CH4 flux from mangroves

Sea-level rise (SLR) may reduce mangrove carbon sequestration by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—a key factor in forecasting the trajectory of blue carbon reserves. Nonetheless, predictions of future GHG fluxes under SLR remain uncertain. Unlike prior studies limited to controlled or single-site settings, we deploy cross-latitude “marsh-organ” designs in China to access GHG fluxes in mangroves and neighboring mudflats. Our findings show that SLR-stimulated CH 4 emissions in mangroves could increase by 10% under RCP 4.5 and by 22% under RCP 8.5, relative to current sea level by 2100. Conversely, SLR decreases ecosystem respiration and N 2 O emissions by 35%–51% and 28%–36%, respectively, while net ecosystem productivity decreases by 12%–28% as SLR increases. Overall, our results forecast a 17%–30% decline in mangroves’ climate mitigation efficiency. We recommend focusing on non-CO 2 GHG emissions from mangroves, as they may significantly offset climate mitigation capacity under climate change.

Cell Reports Sustainability↗
USGS2008

Seabed mapping and characterization of sediment variability using the usSEABED data base

We present a methodology for statistical analysis of randomly located marine sediment point data, and apply it to the US continental shelf portions of usSEABED mean grain size records. The usSEABED database, like many modern, large environmental datasets, is heterogeneous and interdisciplinary. We statistically test the database as a source of mean grain size data, and from it provide a first examination of regional seafloor sediment variability across the entire US continental shelf. Data derived from laboratory analyses ("extracted") and from word-based descriptions ("parsed") are treated separately, and they are compared statistically and deterministically. Data records are selected for spatial analysis by their location within sample regions: polygonal areas defined in ArcGIS chosen by geography, water depth, and data sufficiency. We derive isotropic, binned semivariograms from the data, and invert these for estimates of noise variance, field variance, and decorrelation distance. The highly erratic nature of the semivariograms is a result both of the random locations of the data and of the high level of data uncertainty (noise). This decorrelates the data covariance matrix for the inversion, and largely prevents robust estimation of the fractal dimension. Our comparison of the extracted and parsed mean grain size data demonstrates important differences between the two. In particular, extracted measurements generally produce finer mean grain sizes, lower noise variance, and lower field variance than parsed values. Such relationships can be used to derive a regionally dependent conversion factor between the two. Our analysis of sample regions on the US continental shelf revealed considerable geographic variability in the estimated statistical parameters of field variance and decorrelation distance. Some regional relationships are evident, and overall there is a tendency for field variance to be higher where the average mean grain size is finer grained. Surprisingly, parsed and extracted noise magnitudes correlate with each other, which may indicate that some portion of the data variability that we identify as "noise" is caused by real grain size variability at very short scales. Our analyses demonstrate that by applying a bias-correction proxy, usSEABED data can be used to generate reliable interpolated maps of regional mean grain size and sediment character.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2014

Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine: long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms

Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004–2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization. Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with>300 cysts cm −3 ) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3–4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0–1 and the 0–3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts→blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms→cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0–3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year's bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.

Maine↗
USGS2011

Valuing ecosystem and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole Regions of the Dakotas, USA

This study uses biophysical values derived for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North and South Dakota, in conjunction with value transfer methods, to assess environmental and economic tradeoffs under different policy-relevant land-use scenarios over a 20-year period. The ecosystem service valuation is carried out by comparing the biophysical and economic values of three focal services (i.e. carbon sequestration, reduction in sedimentation, and waterfowl production) across three focal land uses in the region [i.e. native prairie grasslands, lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve and Wetlands Reserve Programs (CRP/WRP), and cropland]. This study finds that CRP/WRP lands cannot mitigate (hectare for hectare) the loss of native prairie from a social welfare standpoint. Land use scenarios where native prairie loss was minimized, and CRP/WRP lands were increased, provided the most societal benefit. The scenario modeling projected native prairie conversion to cropland over the next 20 years would result in a social welfare loss valued at over $4 billion when considering the study's three ecosystem services, and a net loss of about $3.4 billion when reductions in commodity production are accounted for.

North Dakota;South Dakota↗
USGS2017

A large-scale environmental flow experiment for riparian restoration in the Colorado River delta

Managing streamflow is a widely-advocated approach to provide conditions necessary for seed germination and seedling establishment of trees in the willow family (Salicaceae). Experimental flow releases to the Colorado River delta in 2014 had a primary objective of promoting seedling establishment of Fremont cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and Goodding's willow ( Salix gooddingii ). We assessed seed germination and seedling establishment of these taxa as well as the non-native tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.) and native seepwillow shrubs ( Baccharis spp.) in the context of seedling requirements and active land management (land grading, vegetation removal) at 23 study sites along 87 river km. In the absence of associated active land management, experimental flows to the Colorado River delta were minimally successful at promoting establishment of new woody riparian seedlings, except for non-native Tamarix . Our results suggest that the primary factors contributing to low seedling establishment varied across space, but included low or no seed availability in some locations for some taxa, insufficient soil moisture availability during the growing season indicated by deep groundwater tables, and competition from adjacent vegetation (and, conversely, availability of bare ground). Active land management to create bare ground and favorable land grades contributed to significantly higher rates of Salicaceae seedling establishment in a river reach with high groundwater tables. Our results provide insights that can inform future environmental flow deliveries to the Colorado River delta and its ecosystems and other similar efforts to restore Salicaceae taxa around the world.

Colorado River↗
USGS2017

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2022

Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (<i>Anas fulvigula</i>), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.

Louisiana, Texas↗