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USGS2013

Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗

USGS2023

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr −1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

California↗

USGS2013

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2022

Flow–recruitment relationships for Shoal Chub and implications for managing environmental flows

Objective Regulation of river flow regimes by dams and diversions impacts aquatic biota and ecosystems globally. However, our understanding of the ecological consequences of flow alteration and ecological benefits of flow restoration lags behind our ability to manipulate flows, and there is a need for broader development of flow–ecology relationships. Approaches for establishing flow–ecology relationships have recently shifted away from state-based methods that analyze snapshots of ecological conditions and towards rate-based methods focused on mechanisms that link hydrology with dynamics of important ecological components and processes. Methods We used a rate-based approach to validate environmental flow standards developed for the lower Brazos River, Texas, by analyzing the relationship between flow regime components and recruitment strength of imperiled Shoal Chub Macrhybopsis hyostoma , a fluvial specialist and pelagic-broadcast-spawning fish. We collected 254 age-0 Shoal Chub (9–40 mm total length), extracted their otoliths to estimate age in days, and used a generalized additive model to regress the number of captured recruits that hatched on a calendar date against flow regime metrics, such as pulse magnitude, flow rate of change, and pulse timing in relation to environmental flow standards proposed by a science advisory committee (Brazos Basin and Bay Area Expert Science Team). Result The model revealed that flow magnitude, rate of change, and timing were all significant predictors that collectively explained 60% of variation in the recruitment strength index. Hindcasting for 1919–2020 showed a general reduction in recruitment strength following commencement of flow regulation in the lower Brazos River and revealed that high recruitment correlated with years in which most or all proposed flow tiers were attained, whereas low recruitment correlated with years when less than half of the targeted tiers were attained. Conclusion Our work represents an effective validation method for environmental flow recommendations and reveals specific flow regimes that benefit an imperiled fish species.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2026

Chronic, low concentration pesticide exposure alters reproduction and behavior in the intertidal sea anemone, Anthopleura elegantissima

Widespread pesticide and herbicide use paired with frequent transport away from application sites has led to pesticide presence in nearly all terrestrial and aquatic environments globally. Pesticides have unintentional toxic effects on non-target organisms by interfering with cellular processes, behavior, feeding, reproduction, and disrupting endocrine processes. The aggregating anemone, Anthopleura elegantissima, is an important species along the North American Pacific coast due to its symbiotic relationships that contribute to high productivity, and its clonal abundance that structures the rocky intertidal habitat. Commonly used pesticides, atrazine, diuron, and carbendazim were previously detected in coastal waters of Oregon, U.S.A. This study examined the potential effects of these pesticides at environmentally relevant concentrations on reproduction, symbionts, and behavior of A. elegantissima over an eight-week period. Pesticides significantly decreased gonad development in all treatments, having the most significant effect in individual treatments of atrazine ( p = 0.003) , carbendazim ( p = 0.003) , and the mixture of all three pesticides ( p = 0.008). All pesticide treatments significantly increased cloning behavior compared to the control, suggesting that cloning could be a stress response. Pesticide exposure also significantly increased tentacle retraction movement, suggesting possible metabolic or energy impairments. While other studies have previously found behavioral changes in anemones due to pollutants, our study is the first to document behavioral changes in anemones from pesticide exposure. All three pesticides significantly impacted a non-target marine invertebrate at environmentally relevant concentrations, which underscores the value of studies that focus on effects on marine invertebrates, paired with comprehensive pesticide monitoring in coastal areas.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2014

Porphyry copper assessment of East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China), Republic of Korea (South Korea), and Japan

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of East and Southeast Asia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The assessment covers the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), and Japan in East Asia. The Philippines host world class porphyry copper deposits, such as the Tampakan and Atlas deposits. No porphyry copper deposits have been discovered in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), or Japan. Thirteen geographic areas were delineated as tracts that are permissive for porphyry copper deposits in the assessed area. Individual tracts range from about 3,000 to 100,000 square kilometers in area. Permissive tracts are delineated on the basis of mapped distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define subduction-related magmatic arcs or magmatic belts that might contain porphyry copper deposits. Most of these magmatic arcs are subduction related, although some porphyry deposits and prospects are present in back-arc or poorly understood tectonic settings. Maps at various scales were used in the compilation; however, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Numbers of undiscovered deposits were estimated at different levels of confidence for 10 permissive tracts in the Philippines including one area that extends to eastern Taiwan (Republic of China); permissive tracts in South Korea and Japan are discussed qualitatively. Estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were combined with grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate amounts of undiscovered resources. Grades and tonnages of known porphyry copper deposits in the study area were compared with global grade and tonnage models to determine the appropriate model for simulation of undiscovered resources. Most of the known deposits are best described as copper-gold subtypes of porphyry copper deposits. For some permissive tracts, a general porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum model was used. Thirty-eight porphyry copper deposits are known in the Philippines; the mean number of undiscovered deposits was estimated to be 28. Mean (arithmetic) resources that could be associated with the undiscovered deposits are 90 million metric tons of copper and 5,800 metric tons of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Additional resources that could be discovered in extensions to known deposits were not evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, indicate expected amounts of total contained metal and mineralized rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. The Philippines have a long history of porphyry exploration cycles and mine development, interrupted at times by political and social unrest, environmental concerns, and natural disasters. Changes in mining laws within the region and the recent high price of gold on the world market have prompted renewed interest in porphyry copper deposits in the region. South Korea and Japan have been thoroughly explored for many types of mineral deposits. Available data suggest that the permissive rocks in South Korea typically are too deeply eroded to preserve porphyry copper deposits. Porphyry copper systems may be present in Japan, but are likely to lie at depths greater than the 1 kilometer from the surface protocol adopted for this study. Descriptions of the geologic basis for delineating each tract, the data used, the geologic criteria and rationale for the assessment, and results of the assessment are included in appendixes along with the description of a geographic information system (GIS) that includes tract boundaries, known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects, and assessment results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability

Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ~1,900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1,500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (~1,000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS2014

Spatial variation and low diversity in the major histocompatibility complex in walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus )

Increased global temperature and associated changes to Arctic habitats will likely result in the northward advance of species, including an influx of pathogens novel to the Arctic. How species respond to these immunological challenges will depend in part on the adaptive potential of their immune response system. We compared levels of genetic diversity at a gene associated with adaptive immune response [Class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC), DQB exon 2] between populations of walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus ), a sea ice-dependent Arctic species. Walrus was represented by only five MHC DQB alleles, with frequency differences observed between Pacific and Atlantic populations. MHC DQB alleles appear to be under balancing selection, and most (80 %; n = 4/5) of the alleles were observed in walruses from both oceans, suggesting broad scale differences in the frequency of exposure and diversity of pathogens may be influencing levels of heterozygosity at DQB in walruses. Limited genetic diversity at MHC, however, suggests that walrus may have a reduced capacity to respond to novel immunological challenges associated with shifts in ecological communities and environmental stressors predicted for changing climates. This is particularly pertinent for walrus, since reductions in summer sea ice may facilitate both northward expansion of marine species and associated pathogens from more temperate regions, and exchange of marine mammals and associated pathogens through the recently opened Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in the Canadian high Arctic.

Polar Biology↗

USGS2014

Land-margin ecosystem hydrologic data for the coastal Everglades, Florida, water years 1996-2012

Mangrove forests and salt marshes dominate the landscape of the coastal Everglades (Odum and McIvor, 1990). However, the ecological effects from potential sea-level rise and increased water flows from planned freshwater Everglades restoration on these coastal systems are poorly understood. The National Park Service (NPS) proposed the South Florida Global Climate Change Project (SOFL-GCC) in 1990 to evaluate climate change and the effect from rising sea levels on the coastal Everglades, particularly at the marsh/mangrove interface or ecotone (Soukup and others, 1990). A primary objective of SOFL-GCC project was to monitor and synthesize the hydrodynamics of the coastal Everglades from the upstream freshwater marsh to the downstream estuary mangrove. Two related hypotheses were set forward (Nuttle and Cosby, 1993): 1. There exists hydrologic conditions (tide, local rainfall, and upstream water deliveries), which characterize the location of the marsh/mangrove ecotone along the marine and terrestrial hydrologic gradient; and 2. The marsh/mangrove ecotone is sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and freshwater inflow from inland areas. Hydrologic monitoring of the SOFL-GCC network began in 1995 after startup delays from Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) and organizational transfers from the NPS to the National Biological Survey (October 1993) and the merger with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Research Division in 1996 (Smith, 2004). As the SOFL-GCC project progressed, concern by environmental scientists and land managers over how the diversion of water from Everglades National Park would affect the restoration of the greater Everglades ecosystem. Everglades restoration scenarios were based on hydrodynamic models, none of which included the coastal zone (Fennema and others, 1994). Modeling efforts were expanded to include the Everglades coastal zone (Schaffranek and others, 2001) with SOFL-GCC hydrologic data assisting the ecological modeling needs. In 2002, as a response for a more interdisciplinary science approach to understanding the coastal Everglades ecological system, the SOFL-GCC hydrology project was integrated into the “Dynamics of Land-Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment, and Climate” study (Smith and others, 2002). Data from the ongoing study has been useful in providing an empirical hydrologic baseline for the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration science and management needs. The hydrology network consisted of 13 hydrologic gaging stations installed in the southwestern coastal region of Everglades National Park along three transects: Shark River (Shark or SH) transect, Lostmans River (Lostmans or LO) transect, and Chatham River (Chatham or CH) transect (fig. 1). There were five paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Shark transect (SH1, SH2, SH3, SH4, and SH5) and one stage gaging station (BSC) in the Big Sable Creek; four paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Lostmans transect (LO1, LO2, LO3, and LO4); and three paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Chatham transect (CH1, CH2, and CH3). Both surface-water and groundwater levels, salinities, and temperatures were monitored at the paired gaging stations. Rainfall was recorded at marsh and open canopy gaging stations. This report details the study introduction, method, and description of data collected, which are accessible through the final instantaneous hydrologic dataset stored in the USGS South Florida Information Access (SOFIA) South Florida Hydrology Database website, http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/sfl_hydro_data/location.html#brdlandmargin .

Florida↗

USGS2010

The carbon budget of the northern cryosphere region

The northern cryosphere is undergoing substantial warming of permafrost and loss of sea ice. Release of stored carbon to the atmosphere in response to this change has the potential to affect the global climate system. Studies indicate that the northern cryosphere has been not only a substantial sink for atmospheric CO 2 in recent decades, but also an important source of CH 4 because of emissions from wetlands and lakes. Analyses suggest that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the region over the 21st Century is potentially large, but highly uncertain because numerous pathways of response will be affected by warming. Further research should focus on sensitive elements of the carbon cycle such as the consequences of increased fire disturbance, permafrost degradation, and sea ice loss in the northern cryosphere region.

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability↗

USGS2020

Making ‘chemical cocktails’ – Evolution of urban geochemical processes across the periodic table of elements

Urbanization contributes to the formation of novel elemental combinations and signatures in terrestrial and aquatic watersheds, also known as ‘chemical cocktails.’ The composition of chemical cocktails evolves across space and time due to: (1) elevated concentrations from anthropogenic sources, (2) accelerated weathering and corrosion of the built environment, (3) increased drainage density and intensification of urban water conveyance systems, and (4) enhanced rates of geochemical transformations due to changes in temperature, ionic strength, pH, and redox potentials. Characterizing chemical cocktails and underlying geochemical processes is necessary for: (1) tracking pollution sources using complex chemical mixtures instead of individual elements or compounds; (2) developing new strategies for co-managing groups of contaminants; (3) identifying proxies for predicting transport of chemical mixtures using continuous sensor data; and (4) determining whether interactive effects of chemical cocktails produce ecosystem-scale impacts greater than the sum of individual chemical stressors. First, we discuss some unique urban geochemical processes which form chemical cocktails, such as urban soil formation, human-accelerated weathering, urban acidification-alkalinization, and Freshwater Salinization Syndrome. Second, we review and synthesize global patterns in concentrations of major ions, carbon and nutrients, and trace elements in urban streams across different world regions and make comparisons with reference conditions. In addition to our global analysis, we highlight examples from watersheds in the Baltimore-Washington DC area, USA, which show increased transport of major ions, trace metals, and nutrients across streams draining a well-defined land-use gradient. Urbanization increased the concentrations of multiple major and trace elements in streams draining human-dominated watersheds compared to reference conditions. Chemical cocktails of major and trace elements were formed over diurnal cycles coinciding with changes in streamflow, dissolved oxygen, pH, and other variables measured by high-frequency sensors. Some chemical cocktails of major and trace elements were also significantly related to specific conductance (p < 0.05), which can be measured by sensors. Concentrations of major and trace elements increased, peaked, or decreased longitudinally along streams as watershed urbanization increased, which is consistent with distinct shifts in chemical mixtures upstream and downstream of other major cities in the world. Our global analysis of urban streams shows that concentrations of multiple elements along the periodic table significantly increase when compared with reference conditions. Furthermore, similar biogeochemical patterns and processes can be grouped among distinct mixtures of elements of major ions, dissolved organic matter, nutrients, and trace elements as chemical cocktails. Chemical cocktails form in urban waters over diurnal cycles, decades, and throughout drainage basins. We conclude our global review and synthesis by proposing strategies for monitoring and managing chemical cocktails using source control, ecosystem restoration, and green infrastructure. We discuss future research directions applying the watershed chemical cocktail approach to diagnose and manage environmental problems. Ultimately, a chemical cocktail approach targeting sources, transport, and transformations of different and distinct elemental combinations is beneficial to more holistically monitor and manage the emerging impacts of chemical mixtures in the world's fresh waters.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2024

Concepts and evolution of urban hydrology.

Urbanization and climate change are exacerbating the flood risk and ecosystem degradation in urban catchments, with traditional stormwater management systems often overwhelmed. In this Review, we discuss changes in urban hydrology and approaches to stormwater management. Roughly 90% of rainfall on impervious surfaces and drainage infrastructure becomes run-off, enhancing rainfall export away from cities and leading to local water scarcity and downstream flooding and pollution. Projected increases in urban populations (68% in cities by 2050) and rainfall intensity (~12% in the 10-year and 50-year recurrence interval intensity, under 1.5 °C warming) will exacerbate these issues. Transforming stormwater systems is thus urgently needed, to mitigate flood risk and also to address community desires for environmental protection and enhanced water security. Opportunities include rain gardens and other nature-based stormwater control measures (which restore natural flows and offer other ecosystem services), smart sensor monitoring networks and real-time management (which sustain natural flow regimes, mitigate flood risk and protect ecosystem services) and stormwater harvesting (to avoid local water scarcity). Community acceptance of stormwater harvesting is as high as 96% and stormwater is a substantial resource, with volumes often exceeding demand in some parts of the world. Delivering additional transformations globally requires research into strategies to incentivize engagement and investment, and policies to guide governance of decentralized networks.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS2011

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-indigenous Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus 1758). I. Physiological capabilities in various temperatures and salinities

The physiological tolerances of non-native fishes is an integral component of assessing potential invasive risk. Salinity and temperature are environmental variables that limit the spread of many non-native fishes. We hypothesised that combinations of temperature and salinity will interact to affect survival, growth, and reproduction of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus , introduced into Mississippi, USA. Tilapia withstood acute transfer from fresh water up to a salinity of 20 and survived gradual transfer up to 60 at typical summertime (30°C) temperatures. However, cold temperature (14°C) reduced survival of fish in saline waters ≥10 and increased the incidence of disease in freshwater controls. Although fish were able to equilibrate to saline waters in warm temperatures, reproductive parameters were reduced at salinities ≥30. These integrated responses suggest that Nile tilapia can invade coastal areas beyond their point of introduction. However, successful invasion is subject to two caveats: (1) wintertime survival depends on finding thermal refugia, and (2) reproduction is hampered in regions where salinities are ≥30. These data are vital to predicting the invasion of non-native fishes into coastal watersheds. This is particularly important given the predicted changes in coastal landscapes due to global climate change and sea-level rise.

Mississippi↗

USGS2025

Impact of warming and suspended terrigenous sediment on the Hawaiian reef coral Montipora capitata

Coral reefs near high human population areas suffer from sedimentation and increased turbidity due to coastal development. However, there is limited research on how key species respond to turbidity caused by terrigenous sediment and how this response may change with increased water temperatures. This study investigated the effects of ambient and elevated turbidity (+ 26 NTU) in combination with ambient (27.1 °C) and elevated temperature (+ 4.1 °C; 31.2 °C) on the dominant Hawaiian reef coral Montipora capitata , collected from two Kāneʻohe Bay watersheds with distinct environmental histories. Using intermittent flow respirometry, we found that acute (12 h) exposure to elevated turbidity and temperature impacted algal symbionts ( Symbiodinium spp. ) but not the coral host, suggesting a potential delayed host physiological response. Corals from south Kāneʻohe Bay, where restricted water circulation and urbanization have degraded water quality, were more sensitive to stressors than those from the less-impacted northern sites, indicating that physiological responses vary by location and may be influenced by watershed conditions. The findings suggest that while short-term turbidity and warming impact Symbiodinium spp. immediately, prolonged exposure may lead to cascading effects on the coral host. Understanding these species-specific and location-dependent responses enhances our ability to guide restoration and conservation efforts for coral ecosystems facing both local (turbidity) and global (warming) stressors.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Climate change and water quality influence on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon aggregation in the Altamaha River, Georgia

In the summer, juvenile Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are vulnerable to extreme water quality conditions (i.e., temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], and salinity) in the estuaries they inhabit. The effects of climate change on Atlantic sturgeon are largely unknown, but it may exacerbate these water quality issues. We used a 20-year dataset from the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, USA to fit negative binomial mixed-effects models describing the relationship between water quality and catch per net hour of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon. Water temperature and DO were significant positive predictors of catch; salinity and sampling year were significant negative predictors. The interaction between temperature and DO was also significant. Water temperature, salinity, and year were significant in explaining variability in catch. Our modeling results suggest that response to water quality depends on fish age. Next, we used global climate projections to construct future climate scenarios incorporating warming water and increased salinity. By coupling these predictions with catch models, we forecast juvenile Atlantic sturgeon catch as a proxy for distribution. Water temperature increases of 1–5 °C led to predicted catch increases of 5–24%, although this result may be influenced by aggregation behavior or sampling limitations at high temperatures. Salinity increases of 1–2 ppt led to 9–17% decreases in catch, suggesting that saltwater intrusion may limit future Atlantic sturgeon estuarine habitat availability. Our study combines a long-term dataset with a robust statistical modeling approach to offer some of the first insights into future climate change effects on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon’s southern nursery habitats.

Georgia↗

USGS2023

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle . It is where human–environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases . However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area and wildland vegetation . We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003–2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions , there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Nature↗

USGS2026

Stochastic within-host dynamics and climate-sensitive traits generate predictable patterns of variation in disease outcomes

Understanding how climatic variables impact host-pathogen relationships in temperature-sensitive ectothermic host organisms is crucial under global change. Few studies have explored how temperature gradients generate inter-individual variation in epidemiological traits like host susceptibility or pathogen replication. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore a novel hypothesis: stochastic within-host dynamics and simulated thermal mismatches between host and pathogen traits generate predictable variation in infection outcomes among hosts and across thermal gradients. Our model demonstrates that varying trait thermal optima in host immunity and pathogen replication, and stochastic within-host processes produced variation in infection outcomes. Variability was low when temperatures strongly favored host or pathogen traits, but high and diverse when their performance was similar across a broad thermal range. In contrast, when trait performance was equal across all temperatures (no mismatch) variability remained low at all temperatures. Further, the magnitude of variation, quantified by entropy, exhibited predictable patterns depending on host-pathogen thermal mismatches. We conclude that interactions between trait thermal mismatches and within-host stochasticity provide a theoretical framework to improve ectotherm disease models under climate change, providing a valuable tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on epizootic or epidemic dynamics, particularly in vulnerable marine ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗