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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

Effects of rodent community diversity and composition on prevalence of an endemic bacterial pathogen - Bartonella

By studying Bartonella prevalence in rodent communities from 23 geographic sites in the western United States and one site in northern Mexico, the present study focused on the effects of rodent community diversity (measured by richness and Shannon index) and composition on prevalence of Bartonella infections. The analysis showed negative correlations of Bartonella prevalence with rodent richness and Shannon index. Further, Bartonella prevalence varied among rodent genera/species. Three models were applied to explain the observations. (1) Within-species/genus transmission: Bartonella strains usually are host-specific and adding non-host species would decrease Bartonella prevalence in its principal host through reduction of host contact (encounter reduction); (2) Frequency-dependence: Adding hosts would decrease the proportion of all infected individuals in the community, resulting in a reduction in the number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals that usually leads to transmission (transmission reduction); and (3) Dominant species effect: Dominant species, if not susceptible to Bartonellae , can constrain the abundance of susceptible hosts (susceptible host regulation). These mechanisms work in concert; and the level of Bartonella prevalence is an outcome of regulation of all of these mechanisms on the entire system.

Biodiversity↗

Harvest–release decisions in recreational fisheries

Most fishery regulations aim to control angler harvest. Yet, we lack a basic understanding of what actually determines the angler’s decision to harvest or release fish caught. We used XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to develop a predictive angler harvest–release model by taking advantage of an extensive recreational fishery data set (24 water bodies, 9 years, and 193 523 fish). We were able to successfully predict the harvest–release outcome for 99% of fish caught in the training data set and 96% of fish caught in the test data set. Unsuccessful predictions were mostly attributed to predicting harvest of fish that were released. Fish length was the most essential feature examined for predicting angler harvest. Other important predictive harvest–release features included the number of individuals of the same species caught, geographic location of an angler’s residence, distance traveled, and time spent fishing. The XGBoost algorithm was able to effectively predict the harvest–release decision and revealed hidden and intricate relationships that are often unaccounted for with classical analysis techniques. Exposing and accounting for these angler–fish intricacies is critical for fisheries conservation and management.

Nebraska↗

Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Probability of Unmixed Young Groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of unmixed young groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps were developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Probability of Elevated Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Mercury in precipitation in Indiana, January 2004–December 2005

Mercury in precipitation was monitored during 2004–2005 at five locations in Indiana as part of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program–Mercury Deposition Network (NADP–MDN). Monitoring stations were operated at Roush Lake near Huntington, Clifty Falls State Park near Madison, Fort Harrison State Park near Indianapolis, Monroe County Regional Airport near Bloomington, and Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore near Porter. At these monitoring stations, precipitation amounts were measured continuously and weekly samples were collected for analysis of mercury by methods achieving detection limits as low as 0.05 ng/L (nanograms per liter). Wet deposition was computed as the product of mercury concentration and precipitation. The data were analyzed for seasonal patterns, temporal trends, and geographic differences. In the 2 years, 520 weekly samples were collected at the 5 monitoring stations and 448 of these samples had sufficient precipitation to compute mercury wet deposition. The 2-year mean mercury concentration at the five monitoring stations (normalized to the sample volume) was 10.6 ng/L. As a reference for comparison, the total mercury concentration in 41 percent of the samples analyzed was greater than the statewide Indiana water-quality standard for mercury (12 ng/L, protecting aquatic life) and 99 percent of the concentrations exceeded the most conservative Indiana water-quality criterion (1.3 ng/L, protecting wild mammals and birds). The normalized annual mercury concentration at Clifty Falls in 2004 was the fourth highest in the NADP–MDN in eastern North America that year. In 2005, the mercury concentrations at Clifty Falls and Indiana Dunes were the ninth highest in the NADP–MDN in eastern North America. At the five monitoring stations during the study period, the mean weekly total mercury deposition was 0.208 µg/m 2 (micrograms per square meter) and mean annual total mercury deposition was 10.8 µg/m 2 . The annual mercury deposition at Clifty Falls in 2004 and 2005 was in the top 25 percent of the NADP–MDN stations in eastern North America. Mercury concentrations and deposition varied at the five monitoring stations during 2004–2005. Mercury concentrations in wet-deposition samples ranged from 1.2 to 116.6 ng/L and weekly mercury deposition ranged from 0.002 to 1.74 µg/m 2 . Data from weekly samples exhibited seasonal patterns. During April through September, total mercury concentrations and deposition were higher than the median for all samples. Annual precipitation at four of the five monitoring stations was within 10 percent of normal both years, with the exception of Indiana Dunes, where precipitation was 23 percent below normal in 2005. Episodes of high mercury deposition, which were the top 10 percent of weekly mercury deposition at the five monitoring stations, contributed 39 percent of all mercury deposition during 2004–2005. Mercury deposition more than 1.04 µg/m 2 (5 times the mean weekly deposition) was recorded for 12 samples. These episodes of highest mercury deposition were recorded at all five monitoring stations, but the most (7 of 12) were at Clifty Falls and contributed 34.4 percent of the total deposition at that station during 2004–2005. Weekly samples with high mercury deposition may help to explain the differences in annual mercury deposition among the five monitoring stations in Indiana. A statistical evaluation of the monitoring data for 2001–2005 indicated several statistically significant temporal trends. A statewide (5-station) decrease (p = 0.007) in mercury deposition and a statewide decrease (p = 0.059) in mercury concentration were shown. Decreases in mercury deposition (p = 0.061 and p = 0.083) were observed at Roush Lake and Bloomington. A statistically significant trend was not observed for precipitation at the five monitoring stations during this 5-year period. A potential explanation for part of the statewide decrease in mercury concentration and mercury deposition was a 28 percent decrease in the total estimated annual mercury emissions in Indiana between 2002 and 2005. Mercury deposition statistically was correlated most closely to precipitation in the 448 samples, 2004–2005, and this relation was demonstrated by statewide maps of annual precipitation and annual mercury deposition based on precipitation data from 127 National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program stations. However, one area in southeastern Indiana in the vicinity of Clifty Falls exhibited high mercury deposition that might be related more to mercury concentration than to precipitation. This is because areas with the same range of precipitation as southeastern Indiana were mapped with less mercury deposition. Other data demonstrate a geographic difference for mercury in precipitation in the vicinity of the Clifty Falls monitoring station. The weekly mercury concentrations at Clifty Falls were statistically higher than concentrations at Roush Lake, Fort Harrison, and Bloomington. Clifty Falls data ranked highest among the five monitoring stations for mercury concentration and mercury deposition, 2004–2005, and in the previous 3 years. Episodes of high mercury deposition were recorded most often at Clifty Falls in 2004–2005 and in the previous 3 years. Statistical trends in mercury concentration or mercury deposition were not observed for the Clifty Falls data. A potential explanation for this geographic difference is that annual mercury emissions from sources in the vicinity of Clifty Falls were higher than those at the other stations. Other factors may help explain the differences in total mercury concentrations, such as the types of mercury emissions, mercury transport from stationary sources outside Indiana, and meteorological conditions. Additional data are needed to assign a localized or regional boundary to the area affected by high deposition of mercury near Clifty Falls.

Indiana↗

An evaluation of the zooplankton community at the Sheboygan River Area of Concern and non-Area of Concern comparison sites in western Lake Michigan rivers and harbors in 2016

The Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are considered to be the most severely degraded areas within the Great Lakes basin, as defined in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and amendments. Among the 43 designated AOCs are four Lake Michigan AOCs in the State of Wisconsin. The smallest of these AOCs is the Sheboygan River AOC, which was designated as an AOC because of sediment contamination from polychlorinated biphenyl compounds (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and heavy metals. The Sheboygan River AOC has 9 of 14 possible Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs), which must be addressed to improve overall water-quality, and to ultimately delist the AOC. One of the BUIs associated with this AOC is the “degradation of phytoplankton and zooplankton populations,” which can be removed from the list of impairments when it has been determined that zooplankton community composition and structure at the AOC do not differ significantly from communities at non-AOC comparison sites. In 2012 and 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey collected plankton (phytoplankton and zooplankton) community samples at the Sheboygan River AOC and selected non-AOC sites as part of a larger Great Lakes Restoration Initiative study evaluating both the benthos and plankton communities in all four of Wisconsin’s Lake Michigan AOCs. Although neither richness nor diversity of phytoplankton or zooplankton in the Sheboygan River AOC were found to differ significantly from the non-AOC sites in 2012, results from the 2014 data indicated that zooplankton diversity was significantly lower, and so rated as degraded, when compared to the Manitowoc and Kewaunee Rivers, two non-AOC sites of similar size, land use, and close geographic proximity. As a follow-up to the 2014 results, zooplankton samples were collected at the same locations in the AOC and non-AOC sites during three sampling trips in spring, summer, and fall 2016. An analysis of similarity indicated no significant difference between the zooplankton community composition and structure in the AOC and non-AOC sites. Zooplankton taxa richness in the AOC was rated as “not degraded” in 2016 because of significantly higher taxa richness values in samples collected from the Sheboygan River AOC, compared with the non-AOC sites as a group (that is, data pooled from both non-AOC sites). Zooplankton diversity in 2016, however, was characterized as “degraded” in the AOC on the basis of significantly lower (p<0.05) values in samples collected from the AOC compared with those collected from the non-AOC sites as a group. Annual variation in zooplankton community composition and structure at the Sheboygan River AOC was significantly different among all 3 years sampled, as indicated by an analysis of similarity test. Zooplankton richness was significantly higher in 2014 than in both 2012 and 2016, and diversity was significantly higher in 2012 than in both 2014 and 2016. Postremediation recovery can often be complicated by non-AOC-related stressors such as nutrients, invasive species, and extremes in flow, which could affect the recovery of zooplankton communities in the Sheboygan River AOC. The effect of the stressors on postremediation recovery underscores the importance of sampling multiple years when assessing the effectiveness of remediation activities. The results from this study will be used by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to determine if restoration efforts have been effective in removing the plankton BUI and to monitor future conditions in the AOC.

Wisconsin↗

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak flows on small streams in Minnesota, excluding the Rainy River Basin, based on data through water year 2019

Annual peak-flow data collected at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Minnesota and adjacent areas of neighboring states of Iowa and South Dakota were analyzed to develop and update regional regression equations that can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflow for ungaged streams in Minnesota, excluding the Lake of the Woods-Rainy River Basin upstream from Kenora, Ontario, Canada. Hydraulic engineers use peak-flow frequency estimates to inform designs of bridges, culverts, and dams, and water managers use the estimates for regulation and planning activities. Peak-flow estimates are provided for the 66.7-, 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively. The estimates were computed by applying the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows for 298 streamgages based on annual peak-flow data collected through water year 2019. The study area is represented by six hydrologic regions delineated on the basis of a pattern of residuals of statewide regressions, using basin characteristics such as drainage area, main-channel slope, lake area, storage area, and mean annual runoff as explanatory variables. The concept and principles of hydrologic landscape units was used to validate the regions. Residual analysis of the regional regression equations was used to subsequently develop equations relating the peak flow estimates for selected AEPs using 17 characteristics tested as explanatory variables in the regression analysis. The equations developed in this study can be used to produce AEPs within the six regions and to update equations developed in earlier, similar studies in Minnesota. Furthermore, updating the equations in StreamStats, a web-based geographic information system tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, will allow hydraulic engineers and water managers to obtain AEPs and basin characteristics for user-selected locations on streams through an interactive map.

Minnesota↗

Terrain analysis of the racetrack basin and the sliding rocks of Death Valley

The Racetrack Playa's unusual surface features known as sliding rocks have been the subject of an ongoing debate and several mapping projects for half a century, although the causative mechanism remains unresolved. Clasts ranging in volume from large pebbles to medium boulders have, unwitnessed, maneuvered around the nearly flat dry lake over considerable distances. The controversy has persisted partly because eyewitness accounts of the phenomenon continue to be lacking, and the earlier mapping missions were limited in method and geographic range. In July 1996, we generated the first complete map of all observed sliding rock trails by submeter differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) mapping technology. The resulting map shows 162 sliding rocks and associated trails to an accuracy of approximately 30 cm. Although anemometer data are not available in the Racetrack wilderness, wind is clearly a catalyst for sliding rock activity; an inferred wind rose was constructed from DGPS trail segment data. When the entire trail network is examined in plan, some patterns emerge, although other (perhaps expected relations) remain elusive: terrain analysis of the surrounding topography demonstrates that the length and morphology of trails are more closely related to where rocks rested at the onset of motion than to any physical attribute of the rocks themselves. Follow-up surveys in May 1998, May 1999, August 1999, and November 1999 revealed little modification of the July, 1996 sliding rock configuration. Only four rocks were repositioned during the El Nino winter of 1997-1998, suggesting that activity may not be restricted to winter storms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

Summary and Analysis of the U.S. Government Bat Banding Program

This report summarizes the U.S. Government Bat Banding Program (BBP) from 1932 to 1972. More than 2 million bands were issued during the program, of which approximately 1.5 million bands were applied to 36 bat species by scientists in many locations in North America including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Central America. Throughout the BBP, banders noticed numerous and deleterious effects on bats, leading to a moratorium on bat banding by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and a resolution to cease banding by the American Society of Mammalogists in 1973. One of the main points of the memorandum written to justify the moratorium was to conduct a 'detailed evaluation of the files of the bat-banding program.' However, a critical and detailed evaluation of the BBP was never completed. In an effort to satisfy this need, I compiled a detailed history of the BBP by examining the files and conducting a literature review on bat banding activities during the program. I also provided a case study in managing data and applying current mark-recapture theory to estimate survival using the information from a series of bat bands issued to Clyde M. Senger during the BBP. The majority of bands applied by Senger were to Townsend's big-eared bat (Corynorhinus townsendii), a species of special concern for many states within its geographic range. I developed a database management system for the bat banding records and then analyzed and modeled survival of hibernating Townsend's big-eared bats at three main locations in Washington State using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open models and the modeling capabilities of Program MARK. This analysis of a select dataset in the BBP files provided relatively precise estimates of survival for wintering Townsend's big-eared bats. However, this dataset is unique due to its well-maintained and complete state and because there were high recapture rates over the course of banding; it is doubtful that other unpublished datasets of the same quality exist buried in the BBP files for further analyses. Lastly, I make several recommendations based on the findings of this summary and analysis, the most important of which is that marking bats with standard metal or split-ring forearm bands should not be considered for mark-recapture studies unless the information sought and the potential for obtaining unbiased estimates from that information vastly outweighs the potential negative effects to the bats.

Open-File Report↗

Belowground mutualisms to support prairie reconstruction—Improving prairie habitat using mycorrhizal inoculum

As a first step toward understanding the feasibility of using arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) in reconstruction practice, we addressed four objectives: (1) compare root-associated AMF communities of plants between high-quality remnant prairies and reconstructed prairies, (2) compare root-associated AMF communities between plant species that declined in reconstructions and species that were thriving, (3) compare AMF communities collected from roots of plants in geographically separate parts of Minnesota and Iowa, and (4) assess the relationship between AMF communities and soil abiotic factors. We collected soil and root samples in 8 prairies reconstructed in 2005 (and monitored through 2015) and 6 remnant prairies, and the samples were separated into 6 geographically determined clusters, each containing 1–2 reconstructions and 1 remnant. Sequencing was completed on 1,188 deoxyribonucleic acid extracts from individual plant root samples, and fungal sequences were clustered to operational taxonomic units at 97-percent identity. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to visualize differences in species composition of AMF communities among plant species and field sites. Permutational analysis of variance was completed to test for differences in AMF community composition between the 2 types of sites (remnants and reconstructions), among plant species, and among the 6 site clusters. AMF communities differed between remnant and reconstructed prairies, with one exception, and AMF associated with individual plant species also tended to differ, depending on whether the plant species’ roots were collected from remnant or reconstructed prairie. On the other hand, we did not determine that, as a group, species in decline in the reconstructions we had monitored were more likely to harbor different AMF communities compared to species not in decline in the reconstructions. Significant interactions between site type and clusters indicate geographic variation in AMF communities. Total carbon and nitrogen, and organic matter, were higher in remnant soils, whereas phosphorus, which at high concentrations reduces the value of AMF to plants, was much higher in soils collected from reconstructions.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

The relative influence of geographic location and reach-scale habitat on benthic invertebrate assemblages in six ecoregions

The objective of this study was to determine the relative influence of reach-specific habitat variables and geographic location on benthic invertebrate assemblages within six ecoregions across the Western USA. This study included 417 sites from six ecoregions. A total of 301 taxa were collected with the highest richness associated with ecoregions dominated by streams with coarse substrate (19-29 taxa per site). Lowest richness (seven to eight taxa per site) was associated with ecoregions dominated by fine-grain substrate. Principle component analysis (PCA) on reach-scale habitat separated the six ecoregions into those in high-gradient mountainous areas (Coast Range, Cascades, and Southern Rockies) and those in lower-gradient ecoregions (Central Great Plains and Central California Valley). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) models performed best in ecoregions dominated by coarse-grain substrate and high taxa richness, along with coarse-grain substrates sites combined from multiple ecoregions regardless of location. In contrast, ecoregions or site combinations dominated by fine-grain substrate had poor model performance (high stress). Four NMS models showed that geographic location (i.e. latitude and longitude) was important for: (1) all ecoregions combined, (2) all sites dominated by coarse-grain sub strate combined, (3) Cascades Ecoregion, and (4) Columbia Ecoregion. Local factors (i.e. substrate or water temperature) seem to be overriding factors controlling invertebrate composition across the West, regardless of geographic location. ?? The Author(s) 2008.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Pre‐fire drought and competition mediate post‐fire conifer mortality in western U.S. National Parks

Tree mortality is an important outcome of many forest fires. Extensive tree injuries from fire may lead directly to mortality, but environmental and biological stressors may also contribute to tree death. However, there is little evidence showing how the combined effects of two common stressors, drought and competition, influence post‐fire mortality. Geographically broad observations of three common western coniferous trees subjected to prescribed fire showed the likelihood of post‐fire mortality was related to intermediate‐term (10 yr) pre‐fire average radial growth, an important component of tree vigor. Path analysis showed that indices of competition and drought stress prior to fire can be described in terms of joint effects on growth, indirectly affecting post‐fire mortality. Our results suggest that the conditions that govern the relationship between growth and mortality in unburned stands may also apply to post‐fire environments. Thus, biotic and abiotic changes that affect growth negatively (e.g., drought stress) or positively (e.g., growth releases following thinning treatments) prior to fire may influence expressed fire severity, independent of fire intensity (e.g., heat flux, residence time). These relationships suggest that tree mortality may increase under stressful climatic or stand conditions even if fire behavior remains constant.

Ecological Applications↗

Decreased atmospheric sulfur deposition across the southeastern U.S.: When will watersheds release stored sulfate?

Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) to the atmosphere lead to atmospheric deposition of sulfate (SO 4 2- ), which is the dominant strong acid anion causing acidification of surface waters and soils in the eastern United States (U.S.). Since passage of the Clean Air Act and its Amendments, atmospheric deposition of SO 2 in this region has declined by over 80%, but few corresponding decreases in stream-water SO 4 2- concentrations have been observed in unglaciated watersheds. We calculated SO 4 2- mass balances for 27 forested, unglaciated watersheds from Pennsylvania to Georgia, by using total atmospheric deposition (wet plus dry) as input. Many of these watersheds still retain SO 4 2- , unlike their counterparts in the northeastern U.S. and southern Canada. Our analysis showed that many of these watersheds should convert from retaining to releasing SO 4 2- over the next two decades. The specific years when the watersheds crossover from retaining to releasing SO 4 2- correspond to a general geographical pattern of later net watershed release from north to south. The single most important variable that explained the crossover year was the runoff ratio, defined as the ratio of annual mean stream discharge to precipitation. Percent clay content and mean soil depth were secondary factors in predicting crossover year. The conversion of watersheds from net SO 4 2- retention to release anticipates more widespread reductions in stream-water SO 4 2- concentrations in this region.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Next generation public supply water withdrawal estimation for the conterminous United States using machine learning and operational frameworks

Estimation of human water withdrawals is more important now than ever due to uncertain water supplies, population growth, and climate change. Fourteen percent of the total water withdrawal in the United States is used for public supply, typically including deliveries to domestic, commercial, and occasionally including industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water withdrawal. Stewards of water resources in the USA require estimates of water withdrawals to manage and plan for future demands and sustainable water supplies. This study compiled the most comprehensive conterminous United States water withdrawal data set to date and developed a machine learning framework for estimating public supply withdrawals and associated uncertainty for the period 2000–2020. The modeling approach provides service area resolution estimates to allow for annual and monthly water withdrawal estimation while incorporating a complex array of driving factors that include hydroclimatic, demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and land use factors. Model results reveal highly variable and lognormally distributed per-capita water withdrawal, spanning from 30 to 650 gallons per capita per day (GPCD), across community, regional, and national scales, with pronounced seasonal variations. Analysis of estimated withdrawal trends indicates that the national annual average withdrawal experienced a decline at a rate of 0.58 GPCD/year during the period from 2000 to 2020. Model interpretation reveals a complex interplay between public supply withdrawal and key predictors, including population size, warm-season precipitation, counts of large buildings and houses, and areas of urban and commercial land use. The developed models can forecast future public supply driven by various climate, demographic, and socioeconomic scenarios.

conterminous United States↗

Accounting for phenology in the analysis of animal movement

The analysis of animal tracking data provides important scientific understanding and discovery in ecology. Observations of animal trajectories using telemetry devices provide researchers with information about the way animals interact with their environment and each other. For many species, specific geographical features in the landscape can have a strong effect on behavior. Such features may correspond to a single point (eg, dens or kill sites), or to higher dimensional subspaces (eg, rivers or lakes). Features may be relatively static in time (eg, coastlines or home‐range centers), or may be dynamic (eg, sea ice extent or areas of high‐quality forage for herbivores). We introduce a novel model for animal movement that incorporates active selection for dynamic features in a landscape. Our approach is motivated by the study of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) movement. During the sea ice melt season, polar bears spend much of their time on sea ice above shallow, biologically productive water where they hunt seals. The changing distribution and characteristics of sea ice throughout the year mean that the location of valuable habitat is constantly shifting. We develop a model for the movement of polar bears that accounts for the effect of this important landscape feature. We introduce a two‐stage procedure for approximate Bayesian inference that allows us to analyze over 300 000 observed locations of 186 polar bears from 2012 to 2016. We use our model to estimate a spatial boundary of interest to wildlife managers that separates two subpopulations of polar bears from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

Biometrics↗

Fluid spatial dynamics of West Nile virus in the USA: Rapid spread in a permissive host environment

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999 is a classical example of viral emergence in a new environment, with its subsequent dispersion across the continent having a major impact on local bird populations. Despite the importance of this epizootic, the pattern, dynamics and determinants of WNV spread in its natural hosts remain uncertain. In particular, it is unclear whether the virus encountered major barriers to transmission, or spread in an unconstrained manner, and if specific viral lineages were favored over others indicative of intrinsic differences in fitness. To address these key questions in WNV evolution and ecology we sequenced the complete genomes of approximately 300 avian isolates sampled across the USA between 2001-2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a relatively &lsquo;star-like' tree structure, indicative of explosive viral spread in US, although with some replacement of viral genotypes through time. These data are striking in that viral sequences exhibit relatively limited clustering according to geographic region, particularly for those viruses sampled from birds, and no strong phylogenetic association with well sampled avian species. The genome sequence data analysed here also contain relatively little evidence for adaptive evolution, particularly on structural proteins, suggesting that most viral lineages are of similar fitness, and that WNV is well adapted to the ecology of mosquito vectors and diverse avian hosts in the USA. In sum, the molecular evolution of WNV in North America depicts a largely unfettered expansion within a permissive host and geographic population with little evidence of major adaptive barriers.

Journal of Virology↗

Identification of the major capsid protein of erythrocytic necrosis virus (ENV) and development of quantitative real-time PCR assays for quantification of ENV DNA

Viral erythrocytic necrosis (VEN) is a disease of marine and anadromous fish that is caused by the erythrocytic necrosis virus (ENV), which was recently identified as a novel member of family Iridoviridae by next-generation sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis of the ENV DNA polymerase grouped ENV with other erythrocytic iridoviruses from snakes and lizards. In the present study, we identified the gene encoding the ENV major capsid protein (MCP) and developed a quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assay targeting this gene. Phylogenetic analysis of the MCP gene sequence supported the conclusion that ENV does not group with any of the currently described iridovirus genera. Because there is no information regarding genetic variation of the MCP gene across the reported host and geographic range for ENV, we also developed a second qPCR assay for a more conserved ATPase-like gene region. The MCP and ATPase qPCR assays demonstrated good analytical and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity based on samples from laboratory challenges of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii . The qPCR assays had similar diagnostic sensitivity and specificity as light microscopy of stained blood smears for the presence of intraerythrocytic inclusion bodies. However, the qPCR assays may detect viral DNA early in infection prior to the formation of inclusion bodies. Both qPCR assays appear suitable for viral surveillance or as a confirmatory test for ENV in Pacific herring from the Salish Sea.

Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation↗