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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Identifying potential habitat for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics

The Aleutian shield fern Polystichum aleuticum is endemic to the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska and is listed as endangered pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Despite numerous efforts to discover new populations of this species, only four known populations are documented to date, and information is needed to prioritize locations for future surveys. Therefore, we incorporated topographical habitat characteristics (elevation, slope, aspect, distance from coastline, and anthropogenic footprint) found at known Aleutian shield fern locations into a Geographical Information System (GIS) model to create a habitat suitability map for the entirety of the Andreaonof Islands. A total of 18 islands contained 489.26 km 2 of highly suitable and moderately suitable habitat when weighting each factor equally. This study reports a habitat suitability map for the endangered Aleutian shield fern using topographical characteristics, which can be used to assist current and future recovery efforts for the species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Stratigraphic controls on fluid and solute fluxes across the sediment-water interface of an estuary

Shallow stratigraphic features, such as infilled paleovalleys, modify fresh groundwater discharge to coastal waters and fluxes of saltwater and nutrients across the sediment–water interface. We quantify the spatial distribution of shallow surface water–groundwater exchange and nitrogen fluxes near a paleovalley in Indian River Bay, Delaware, using a hand resistivity probe, conventional seepage meters, and pore-water samples. In the interfluve (region outside the paleovalley) most nitrate-rich fresh groundwater discharges rapidly near the coast with little mixing of saline pore water, and nitrogen transport is largely conservative. In the peat-filled paleovalley, fresh groundwater discharge is negligible, and saltwater exchange is deep (∼1 m). Long pore-water residence times and abundant sulfate and organic matter promote sulfate reduction and ammonium production in shallow sediment. Reducing, iron-rich fresh groundwater beneath paleovalley peat discharges diffusely around paleovalley margins offshore. In this zone of diffuse fresh groundwater discharge, saltwater exchange and dispersion are enhanced, ammonium is produced in shallow sediments, and fluxes of ammonium to surface water are large. By modifying patterns of groundwater discharge and the nature of saltwater exchange in shallow sediments, paleovalleys and other stratigraphic features influence the geochemistry of discharging groundwater. Redox reactions near the sediment–water interface affect rates and patterns of geochemical fluxes to coastal surface waters. For example, at this site, more than 99% of the groundwater-borne nitrate flux to the Delaware Inland Bays occurs within the interfluve portion of the coastline, and more than 50% of the ammonium flux occurs at the paleovalley margin.

Delaware↗

USGS2018

Landscape conservation design for enhancing the adaptive capacity of coastal wetlands in the face of sea-level rise and coastal development

Coastal wetlands provide many valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including critical habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to migrate inland. In a recent study, we identified areas where coastal wetlands may move inland along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most wetland-rich and sea-level rise sensitive regions of the world. Building on these findings, this project produced customized landscape conservation-design products focused on identifying landward migration routes for coastal wetlands. The resulting products provide environmental managers with information to make decisions to enhance the capacity of coastal wetlands to adapt to sea-level rise and coastal development, protecting these ecosystems and the critical economic and ecological benefits that they provide.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2014

Recolonization of the intertidal and shallow subtidal community following the 2008 eruption of Alaska’s Kasatochi Volcano

The intertidal and nearshore benthic communities of Kasatochi Island are described following a catastrophic volcanic eruption in 2008. Prior to the eruption, the island was surrounded by a dense bed of canopy-forming dragon kelp Eualaria fistulosa which supported a productive nearshore community. The eruption extended the coastline of the island approximately 400 m offshore to roughly the 20 m isobath. One year following the eruption a reconnaissance survey found the intertidal zone devoid of life. Subtidally, the canopy kelp, as well as limited understory algal species and associated benthic fauna on the hard substratum, were buried by debris from the eruption. The resulting substrate was comprised almost entirely of medium and coarse sands with a depauperate benthic community. Comparisons of habitat and biological communities with other nearby Aleutian Islands and the Icelandic submarine volcanic eruption of Surtsey confirm dramatic reductions in flora and fauna consistent with the initial stages of recovery from a large-scale disturbance event. Four and five years following the eruption brief visits revealed dramatic intertidal and subtidal recolonization of the flora and fauna in some areas. Signs of nesting and fledging of young pigeon guillemots Cepphus columba suggest that the recovery of the nearshore biota may have begun affecting higher trophic levels. Recolonization or lack thereof was tied to bathymetric changes from coastal and nearshore erosion over the study period.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Quantifying thresholds of barrier geomorphic change in a cross-shore sediment-partitioning model

Barrier coasts, including barrier islands, beach-ridge plains, and associated landforms, can assume a broad spectrum of morphologies over multi-decadal scales that reflect conditions of sediment availability, accommodation, and relative sea-level rise. However, the quantitative thresholds of these controls on barrier-system behavior remain largely unexplored, even as modern sea-level rise and anthropogenic modification of sediment availability increasingly reshape the world's sandy coastlines. In this study, we conceptualize barrier coasts as sediment-partitioning frameworks, distributing sand delivered from the shoreface to the subaqueous and subaerial components of the coastal system. Using an idealized morphodynamic model, we explore thresholds of behavioral and morphologic change over decadal to centennial timescales, simulating barrier evolution within quasi-stratigraphic morphological cross sections. Our results indicate a wide diversity of barrier behaviors can be explained by the balance of fluxes delivered to the beach vs. the dune or backbarrier, including previously understudied forms of transgression that allow the subaerial system to continue accumulating sediment during landward migration. Most importantly, our results show that barrier state transitions between progradation, cross-shore amalgamation, aggradation, and transgression are controlled largely through balances within a narrow range of relative sea-level rise and sediment flux. This suggests that, in the face of rising sea levels, subtle changes in sediment fluxes could result in significant changes in barrier morphology. We also demonstrate that modeled barriers with reduced vertical sediment accommodation are highly sensitive to the magnitude and direction of shoreface fluxes. Therefore, natural barriers with limited sediment accommodation could allow for exploration of the future effects of sea-level rise and changing flux magnitudes over a period of years as opposed to the decades required for similar responses in sediment-rich barrier systems. Finally, because our model creates stratigraphy generated under different input parameters, we propose that it could be used in combination with stratigraphic data to hindcast the sensitivity of existing barriers and infer changes in prehistoric morphology, which we anticipate will provide a baseline to assess the reliability of forward modeling predictions.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗

USGS2024

NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps

Models of rocky-coast erosion help us understand the physical phenomena that control coastal morphology and evolution, infer the processes shaping coasts in remote environments, and evaluate risk from natural hazards and future climate change. Existing models, however, are highly complex, are computationally expensive, and depend on many input parameters; this limits our ability to explore planform erosion of rocky coasts over long timescales (thousands to millions of years) and over a range of conditions. In this paper, we present a simplified cellular model of coastline evolution in closed basins through uniform erosion and wave-driven erosion. Uniform erosion is modeled as a constant rate of retreat. Wave erosion is modeled as a function of fetch, the distance over which the wind blows to generate waves, and the angle between the incident wave and the shoreline. This reduced-complexity model can be used to evaluate how a detachment-limited coastal landscape reflects climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2025

Leisure boat harbours, hidden alien species, and pollution: A case study of Hinsholmskilen harbour (Gothenburg, Sweden)

Small leisure boat harbours have important aesthetic and recreational values in any country with a coastline. In Sweden, there are about 860 000 leisure boats, which is one of the world's highest numbers in relation to the country's population. However, small boat harbours also present a wide range of environmental problems, including the introduction of alien species and high pollution. In this study, we investigated the ecological quality status (EcoQS) of the Hinsholmskilen small boat harbour, located southwest of the city of Gothenburg (Sweden). We performed a reconnaissance survey of the harbour's previously unstudied benthic foraminiferal communities and analysed surface sediment (0–2 cm) samples for potentially toxic elements: copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). The results show that, based on the total benthic foraminiferal distribution (dead and live specimens), the assemblages in Hinsholmskilen harbour represent a typical European estuarine community with highly abundant Ammonia and Elphidium species. Based on molecular and morphological data, we report the presence of two alien and putatively invasive species likely originating from Asia: Trochammina hadai and Ammonia confertitesta (phylotype T6). Both species have recently been identified elsewhere on the Swedish west coast based on molecular and morphological data but do not have a well-known distribution. The sediment analysis for potentially toxic elements showed that the harbour has good to high EcoQS corresponding to no or little deviation from reference conditions for Cd, Co, Ni, and Pb distribution. Some of the contaminants (Pb, As, Zn, and Cr) showed poor to bad EcoQS in the innermost harbour in proximity to high-pressure cleaning plants, where boats are usually lifted, cleaned, and prepared for winter storage on land. Finally, Cu and Hg showed consistently bad and poor EcoQS all over the harbour, reflecting the use of both metals as biocides in antifouling boat paints.

Gothenburg↗

USGS2024

Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model

Low-lying, tropical, coral-reef-lined coastlines are becoming increasingly vulnerable to wave-driven flooding due to population growth, coral reef degradation, and sea-level rise. Early-warning systems (EWSs) are needed to enable coastal authorities to issue timely alerts and coordinate preparedness and evacuation measures for their coastal communities. At longer timescales, risk management and adaptation planning require robust assessments of future flooding hazard considering uncertainties. However, due to diversity in reef morphologies and complex reef hydrodynamics compared to sandy shorelines, there have been no robust analytical solutions for wave runup to allow for the development of large-scale coastal wave-driven flooding EWSs and risk assessment frameworks for reef-lined coasts. To address the need for fast, robust predictions of runup that account for the natural variability in coral reef morphologies, we constructed the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process modeling system. We developed this meta-process model using a training dataset of hydrodynamics and wave runup computed by the XBeach Non-Hydrostatic process-based hydrodynamic model for 440 combinations of water level, wave height, and wave period with 195 representative reef profiles that encompass the natural diversity in real-world fringing coral reef systems. Through this innovation, BEWARE-2 can be applied in a larger range of coastal settings than meta-models that rely on a parametric description of the coral reef geometry. In the validation stage, the BEWARE-2 modeling system produced runup results that had a relative root mean square error of 13% and relative bias of 5% relative to runup simulated by XBeach Non-Hydrostatic for a large range of oceanographic forcing conditions and for diverse reef morphologies (root mean square error and bias 0.63 and 0.26 m, respectively, relative to mean simulated wave runup of 4.85 m). Incorporating parametric modifications in the modeling system to account for variations in reef roughness and beach slope allows for systematic errors (relative bias) in BEWARE-2 predictions to be reduced by a factor of 1.5–6.5 for relatively coarse or smooth reefs and mild or steep beach slopes. This prediction provided by the BEWARE-2 modeling system is faster by 4–5 orders of magnitude than the full, process-based hydrodynamic model and could therefore be integrated into large-scale EWSs for tropical, reef-lined coasts and used for large-scale flood risk assessments.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2026

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York↗

USGS2013

Integrated carbon budget models for the Everglades terrestrial-coastal-oceanic gradient: Current status and needs for inter-site comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines

Florida↗

USGS2019

Ecosystem size predicts social dynamics in recreational fisheries

Recreational fisheries are complex adaptive systems that are inherently difficult to manage due to a heterogeneous user group (consumptive vs. non-consumptive) that utilize patchily distributed resources on the landscape (lakes, rivers, coastlines). There is a need to identify which system components can effectively predict and be used to manage nonlinear and cross-scale dynamics within these systems. We examine how ecosystem size or waterbody size can be used to explain complicated and elusive angler-resource dynamics in recreational fisheries. Waterbody size determined angler behavior among 48 Nebraska, U.S.A. waterbodies during an 11-year study period. Angler behavior was often unique and nonlinear across waterbody sizes. For example, anglers spent more time fishing and harvested more fish at larger waterbodies compared to smaller waterbodies. Time fished increased across smaller waterbodies but reached a threshold at larger waterbodies. The number of fish released increased as a function of waterbody size across smaller waterbodies but then plateaued. Subtle changes in waterbody size caused abrupt changes in angler behavior—that is, waterbody size structures angler-resource dynamics in recreational fisheries. We believe that including waterbody size, a simple and easily measured metric, in fisheries management will increase effectiveness of cross-scale actions and minimize unintended consequences for recreational fisheries. Applying uniform management actions (e.g., harvest regulations) across small and large waterbodies may elicit contrasting angler-resource responses. Waterbody size may also be useful for understanding angler typologies. Based on our findings, we expect that ecosystem size is a prominent and valuable system component that will determine and explain coupled user-resource dynamics in other complex adaptive systems.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2017

Baseline assessments for coral reef community structure and demographics on West Maui

The coastal and upslope terrains of West Maui have had a long history of impacts owing to more than a century of human activities. Resource extraction, agriculture, as well as residential and resort development have caused land-based pollution that impairs water quality and adversely impact the adjacent marine ecosystem. Today, West Maui’s coral reefs are chronically impacted by the effects of land-based pollution, mainly sedimentation and nutrients, with documented losses of 30 – 75% in coral cover over the last 20 years. Nonetheless, despite their current status and levels of environmental impact, these coral reef communities represent a key local resource and a counterpoint to the overall low coral reef development levels both island- and state-wide. This is of high relevance because the occurrence of coral-rich assemblages and accreted reef complexes statewide is sparse. Only limited segments along the coastlines of Maui, Hawai‘i, Lana‘i, Moloka‘i, and Kaho‘olawe, harbor mature, fringing coral reefs; and unfortunately, many of them are seriously threatened by terrestrial runoff. This report describes the results of baseline assessment surveys of coral reef benthic structure, coral community demographics, and coral condition. These surveys are intended to provide benchmarks for continued monitoring efforts and provide a gauge for comparing and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions to reduce land-based sources of pollution in priority watersheds on West Maui. Within this context, 12 permanent, long-term monitoring sites were strategically established adjacent to the 7 primary stream drainages (Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Mahinahina, Kahana/Ka‘opala, Honokeana, Honokahua, and Honolua) within the five priority watersheds (Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Kahana, Honokahua, and Honolua). Herein, benthic cover and composition, coral demographics, and coral condition of the monitoring sites are described and contrasted in the “Benthic Characterization” and “Synthesis and Discussion” sections of this report. The baseline assessments revealed that although some areas harbor prominent coral reef structures with high live coral cover and multispecies assemblages, others are characterized by sediment-impacted corals in impoverished and species-poor communities. Mean coral cover varied widely, from 49% at Wahikuli-shallow to 4.6% at Mahinahina-shallow. Similarly, coralline algal cover averaged 12.7% at Ka‘opala and Honokeana-north, but was altogether absent at the Mahinahina sites. Macroalgae was a minor component of the benthos across all study sites, representing only up to 2.3% at Mahinahina-south, while turf algae varied considerably, from 41% at Honokeana-north to 84% at the Honokahua site. Consequently, the Benthic Substrate Ratio (BSR) also varied considerably region wide, with the highest values (≥ 1), suggesting a healthier reef condition reported for the Wahikuli, Honokeana, and Honokōwai sites; and the lowest (≤ 0.5), suggesting impairment in structure and function, recorded at the Honolua and Honokahua sites. Adult colony densities were the highest at the Wahikuli (27 col/m 2 ) but lowest at the Ka‘opala (7 col/m2 ) site. And, colony partial mortality peaked at the Ka‘opala (33%) and was the lowest at the Honokeana Bay (12%). Moreover, in-situ and derived estimates of water turbidity and sediment loading revealed that the Ka‘opala and Wahikuli stream sites ranked the highest for turbidity, whereas the Honokōwai and Ka‘opala sites ranked highest for sediment loading. Chronic and episodic terrestrial sediment stress has resulted in coral reef community demise, clearly illustrated at the Honolua, Honokahua, and Ka‘opala sites, where coral benthic cover and colony abundances ranked the lowest and levels of turf algae ranked among the highest. Left unattended, land-based pollution impacts will continue to negatively affect the coral reef communities of West Maui. And, under the current turbidity and sediment loading conditions, the coral-rich habitats in the Wahikuli and Honōkowai Watersheds are probably at greatest risk, given they harbor the most prominent and well-developed reefs in the region, characterized by the highest coral cover, colony densities, and structural complexity.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Populations of concern

Climate change is already causing, and is expected to continue to cause, a range of health impacts that vary across different population groups in the United States. The vulnerability of any given group is a function of its sensitivity to climate change related health risks, its exposure to those risks, and its capacity for responding to or coping with climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups of people, described here as populations of concern, include those with low income, some communities of color, immigrant groups (including those with limited English proficiency), Indigenous peoples, children and pregnant women, older adults, vulnerable occupational groups, persons with disabilities, and persons with preexisting or chronic medical conditions. Planners and public health officials, politicians and physicians, scientists and social service providers are tasked with understanding and responding to the health impacts of climate change. Collectively, their characterization of vulnerability should consider how populations of concern experience disproportionate, multiple, and complex risks to their health and well-being in response to climate change. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both climate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, coastlines, and other at-risk locations are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. Over time, this “accumulation” of multiple, complex stressors is expected to become more evident1 as climate impacts interact with stressors associated with existing mental and physical health conditions and with other socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Report↗

USGS1996

The relevance of the Mediterranean Region to colonial waterbird conservation

The Mediterranean Sea is the largest partially enclosed sea in the world and provides habitat to more than 100 species of waterbirds from the Palearctic-North African-Middle Eastern regions. Even though the Mediterranean suffers from pollution, has little tidal influence, and is oligotrophic, more than half of the western Palearctic populations of numerous waterfowl species winter in the region. Thirty-three species of colonial waterbirds breed along the 46,000 km Mediterranean coastline with nine species considered threatened or endangered, mostly because of wetland loss and degradation. The long history of human activity and scientific investigations in the region has taught some valuable lessons. In the area of colonial waterbird biology and conservation, we have learned important lessons about the value of long-term monitoring and research on selected populations. From marking studies of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) and Little Egrets (Egretta garzetta) results have been used to derive useful information about metapopulation dynamics. Involvement of both African and European biologists allowed year-round Studies of these species that yielded valuable spin-offs for training in avian and wetland conservation. We have also learned the value of man-made wetlands as feeding and nesting sites for some colonial waterbirds. Careful evaluations of the habitat quality of different types of wetlands are required, as in contaminant levels such as lead shot and pesticides. Wetland conservationists have also learned from some instructive mistakes. Dam construction and agricultural incentive programs sponsored by the European Community, the World Bank, and others from the past have largely ignored impacts on wetlands and wildlife. In some areas, economic ventures such as aquaculture operations and salt mining have not involved waterbird habitat needs in their planning. Research and conservation needs include: (1) establishing regional monitoring programs and data banks for seabirds, wading birds, ducks, and geese; (2) implementing a wetland inventory for many Countries with little quantitative data on wetlands; (3) improving habitat quality assessments; (4) improving relationships with industry, the private citizenry, and government officials to further an appreciation for the value of wetlands and waterbirds; (5) enhancing training efforts, especially in underdeveloped Countries; (6) evaluating the effects of hunting and other disturbances to nesting and feeding waterbirds in different regions; (7) setting up 'sister-reserve' (twinned) sites in Europe and Africa to foster international linkages and training; and (8) fostering local-regional conservation programs to preserve reed beds, wet woodlots, and other key habitats.

Book chapter↗

USGS2006

High tides and rising seas: potential effects on estuarine waterbirds

Coastal waterbirds are vulnerable to water-level changes especially under predictions of accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm frequency in the next century. Tidal and wind-driven fluctuations in water levels affecting marshes, their invertebrate communities, and their dependent waterbirds are manifested in daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, and supra-annual (e.g., decadal or 18.6-yr) periodicities. Superimposed on these cyclic patterns is a long-term (50?80 yr) increase in relative sea-level rise that varies from about 2?4 + mm/yr along the Atlantic coastline. At five study sites selected on marsh islands from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to coastal Virginia, we monitored marsh elevation changes and flooding, tide variations over time, and waterbird use. We found from longterm marsh core data that marsh elevations at three of five sites may not be sufficient to maintain pace with current sea-level rise. Results of the short-term (3?4 yr) measures using surface elevation tables suggest a more dramatic difference, with marsh elevation change at four of five sites falling below relative sea-level rise. In addition, we have found a significant increase (in three of four cases) in the rate of surface marsh flooding in New Jersey and Virginia over the past 70?80 yr during May?July when waterbirds are nesting on or near the marsh surface. Short-term, immediate effects of flooding will jeopardize annual fecundity of many species of concern to federal and state agencies, most notably American Black Duck (Anas rubripes), Nelson?s Sharp-tailed Sparrow (Ammodramus nelsoni), Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed Sparrow (A. caudacutus), Seaside Sparrow (A. maritima), Coastal Plain Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana nigrescens), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis), Forster?s Tern (Sterna forsteri), Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), and American Oystercatcher (Haemotopus palliatus). Forster?s Terns are probably most at risk given the large proportion of their breeding range in the mid-Atlantic and their saltmarsh specialization. At a scale of 1?2 decades, vegetation changes (saltmeadow cordgrass [Spartina patens] and salt grass [Distichlis spicata] converting to smooth cordgrass [Spartina alternifl ora]), interior pond expansion and erosion of marshes will reduce nesting habitat for many of these species, but may enhance feeding habitat of migrant shorebirds and/or migrant or wintering waterfowl. At scales of 50?100 yr, reversion of marsh island complexes to open water may enhance populations of open-bay waterfowl, e.g., Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) and Canvasback (Aythya valisneria), but reduce nesting habitats dramatically for the above named marsh-nesting species, may reduce estuarine productivity by loss of the detrital food web and nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates, and cause redistribution of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other species. Such scenarios are more likely to occur in the mid- and north Atlantic regions since these estuaries are lower in sediment delivery on average than those in the Southeast. A simple hypothetical example from New Jersey is presented where waterbirds are forced to shift from submerged natural marshes to nearby impoundments, resulting in roughly a 10-fold increase in density. Whether prey fauna are sufficiently abundant to support this level of increase remains an open question, but extreme densities in confined habitats would exacerbate competition, increase disease risk, and possibly increase predation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Science Support for Climate Change Adaptation in South Florida

Earth's changing climate is among the foremost conservation challenges of the 21st century, threatening to permanently alter entire ecosystems and contribute to extinctions of species. Lying only a few feet above sea level and already suffering effects of anthropogenic stressors, south Florida's ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. Recent research accounting for the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets predicts that sea level rise on U.S. coastlines will be much higher than global averages (Gomez et al. 2010), and the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force predicts that local sea level rise will be at least 3 to 5 ft. (0.9 m to 1.5 m) by 2100 (MDCCATF 2008). In a 5 ft. scenario, up to 873 additional square miles of the Everglades would be inundated with saltwater (see maps below). Accelerated sea level rise is likely to be accompanied by increasing temperatures (IPCC 2007a) and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes (Webster et al. 2005). In addition, changes in amount, timing, and distribution of rainfall in south Florida may lead to more severe droughts and floods (SFWMD 2009).

Florida↗

USGS1991

Erosion and accretion along the arctic coast of Alaska. The influence of ice and climate

Coastline comparison on 1951 and 1981 charts to determine erosion and accretion showed that ocean-facing coastal bluffs were retreating while deltas were rapidly expanding. Where the coast is fronted by a lagoon, and coast-parallel sand and gravel islands, bluff retreat was reduced. The extensive bluff erosion was volumetrically balanced by accretion at the mouths of deltas. Coastal erosion is driven by ice-related processes, aided by the presence of an ice-eroded shelf. Rapid delta expansion is interpreted to have begun in the last 200 years, perhaps related to observed permafrost warming.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1992

Tide- and wind-driven flushing of Boston Harbor, Massachusetts

The flushing of Boston Harbor, a shallow, tidally dominated embayment with little fresh water input, is investigated using a depth-averaged model. The modeled tidal currents exhibit strong spatial variability and ebb/flood asymmetry due to complex topography and coastline geometry and were verified by shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements. At the inlets to the harbor, the asymmetry between flood and ebb gives rise to a net exchange of water, which acts over successive tidal cycles to flush the harbor. The flushing is examined by tracking water that starts out in Boston Harbor for 40 M2 tidal cycles. The tidal flushing is very efficient at mixing water in the vicinity of the inlets over several tidal cycles, but efficiency decreases with time as ``tidal mixing regions'' form on either side of the harbor inlets. When wind forcing is included, the wind-driven currents act to flush the tidal mixing regions, giving rise to more efficient flushing. The exception is when the wind is from the southwest, which confines the jet-like ebb flow from the harbor and therefore reduces the flushing efficiency. In general, flushing is shown to be a two-step process: (1) rapid exchange due to tides over a large region in the vicinity of the harbor inlets and (2) flushing of this region by wind-driven flow. The model also demonstrates that flushing is not uniform over the entire harbor but occurs rapidly in the deep tidal channels and slowly in the regions of weak tidal currents around the harbor periphery. Although the depth-averaged approach to flushing is appropriate over most of the harbor due to the harbor's shallow depth and broad depth distribution, the lack of bathymetric variability and the presence of locally important density driven currents in the Boston Inner Harbor indicates that flushing of this localized area must be approached with a three-dimensional model.

Massachusetts↗