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USGS2014

Modeling long-term trends of chlorinated ethene contamination at a public supply well

A mass-balance solute-transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long-term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.

New Jersey↗

USGS2024

Cross-fade sampling: Extremely efficient Bayesian inversion for a variety of geophysical problems

This paper introduces cross-fade sampling, a computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method that uses a semi-analytical approach to quickly solve Bayesian inverse problems that do not themselves have an analytical solution. Cross-fading is efficient in two ways. First, it requires fewer samples to obtain the same quality simulation of the target probability density function (PDF). Secondly, it is much faster to evaluate the posterior probability of each sample than conventional sampling methods for simulating Bayesian posterior PDFs. Conventional methods require evaluating the prior probability (which describes your a priori constraints) and data likelihood (which describes the fit between the observations and the predictions of the model) for each sample model. However, cross-fading does not require evaluating the data likelihood, meaning that ‘big data’ can be fit with zero additional computational cost. Further, the cross-fading approach can be used to calculate the marginal likelihood associated with a model design, facilitating model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. Topics covered in this paper include derivation of the cross-fade approach and how it can be used to simulate Bayesian posterior PDFs and compute the marginal likelihood, discussion of the class of problems to which cross-fading can be applied (with examples from earthquake statistics, earthquake ground motion modelling, volcanic eruption forecasting, and finite fault slip modelling), demonstration of efficiency relative to existing sampling methods and discussion of how cross-fading can be used to account for prediction errors (i.e. epistemic errors) as part of the geophysical inverse problem.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2012

Using spatially detailed water-quality data and solute-transport modeling to improve support total maximum daily load development

Spatially detailed mass-loading studies and solute-transport modeling using OTIS (One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage) demonstrate how natural attenuation and loading from distinct and diffuse sources control stream water quality and affect load reductions predicted in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Mass-loading data collected during low-flow from Cement Creek (a low-pH, metal-rich stream because of natural and mining sources, and subject to TMDL requirements) were used to calibrate OTIS and showed spatially variable effects of natural attenuation (instream reactions) and loading from diffuse (groundwater) and distinct sources. OTIS simulations of the possible effects of TMDL-recommended remediation of mine sites showed less improvement to dissolved zinc load and concentration (14% decrease) than did the TMDL (53-63% decrease). The TMDL (1) assumed conservative transport, (2) accounted for loads removed by remediation by subtracting them from total load at the stream mouth, and (3) did not include diffuse-source loads. In OTIS, loads were reduced near their source; the resulting concentration was decreased by natural attenuation and increased by diffuse-source loads during downstream transport. Thus, by not including natural attenuation and loading from diffuse sources, the TMDL overestimated remediation effects at low flow. Use of the techniques presented herein could improve TMDLs by incorporating these processes during TMDL development.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2005

Mineralogy and arsenic mobility in arsenic-rich Brazilian soils and sediments

Background. Soils and sediments in certain mining regions of Brazil contain an unusually large amount of arsenic (As), which raises concerns that mining could promote increased As mobility, and thereby increase the risks of contaminating water supplies. Objectives. The purpose of t his study was to identify the most important factors governing As mobility in sediments and soils near three gold-mining sites in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Methods. Surface and sub-surface soil samples were collected at those sites and characterized by chemical and mineralogical analyses. Oxalate (Feo) and citrate-bicarbonate-dithionite (Fed) iron contents were determined by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). Arsenic mobilization was measured after incubating the samples in a 2.5 mM CaCl2 solution under anaerobic conditions for 1, 28, 56, 84, or 112 days. The solution concentrations of As, Fe, and Mn were then measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and AAS, respectively. Results and Discussion. Results indicated that As mobilization is largely independent of both the total As and the Feo/Fed ratio of the solid phase. Soluble As is roughly controlled by the Fe (hydr)oxide content of the soil, but a closer examination of the data revealed the importance of other highly weathered clay minerals and organic matter. Large amounts of organic matter and a low iron oxide content should favor As leaching from soils and sediments. Under reducing conditions, As is mobilized by the reductive dissolution of Fe and/or Mn oxides. However, released As may be readsorbed depending on the sorptive properties of the soil. Gibbsite is particularly effective in adsorbing or readsorbing As, as is the remaining unreduced fraction of the iron (hydr)oxides. Conclusion and Outlook. In general, low soluble As is rel ated to the presence of gibbsite, a large amount of iron oxides, and a lack of organic matter in the solid phase. This has environmental significance because gibbsite is thermodynamically more stable than Fe oxides under anaerobic conditions, such as those found in waterlogged soils and lake sediments. ?? 2006 ecomed publishers (Verlagsgruppe Hu??thig Jehle Rehm GmbH), D-86899 Landsberg and Tokyo.

Journal of Soils and Sediments↗

USGS2012

Scarp degraded by linear diffusion: Inverse solution for age

Under the assumption that landforms unaffected by drainage channels are degraded according to the linear diffusion equation, a procedure is developed to invert a scarp profile to find its “diffusion age.” Diffusion age, having dimension [length] 2 , is the product of diffusivity times chronological age. The second moment of scarp slope grows linearly with age. This fact, together with an assumption about initial scarp shape, allows the inverse determination of diffusion age. Age found assuming a vertical initial scarp is termed “apparent age”; any nonvertical initial scarp profile has a nonzero initial apparent age. True diffusion age differs from apparent age by a fraction of scarp offset squared. The inverse procedure applied to synthetic data yields the following rules of thumb. Evidence of initial scarp shape has been lost when apparent age reaches twice its initial value. If a scarp is formed by two events, the inversion gives their offset-weighted-mean age with an error that is a fraction of offset squared. A scarp that appears to have been formed by one event may have been formed by two with an interval between them as large as apparent age. After scarps of two fault traces have diffused to appear as one, the error in inferred age may be as large as half the apparent age. Variation of apparent age along strike would indicate multiple fault traces. The simplicity of scarp profile measurement and this inversion makes profile analysis attractive. If linearity of the flow law, time for a free face to be reduced to the angle of repose, and variation of diffusivity with climate and material could be established, profile analysis would become a reliable dating technique.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1994

Effects of ion exchange on stream solute fluxes in a basin receiving highway deicing salts

At Fever Brook, a 1260-ha forested basin in central Massachusetts, highway deicing salt application increased the solute flux in streamflow by 120% above background flux (equivalent basis) during a 2-yr period. Attempts to isolate the nonsalt component of stream solute fluxes have commonly subtracted salt contributions based on the net Cl flux (Cl output in streamflow minus Cl input in precipitation). In these studies, any net Na flux in excess of the amount needed to balance the net Cl flux has been attributed to weathering. At Fever Brook, however, the net output of Na was less than the net output of Cl, suggesting a loss of Na within the basin. The Na sink was inferred to be cation exchange of Na for Ca and Mg in the soil. A method was developed to quantify the exchange based on a Na budget, which included an independent estimate of the Na flux from weathering. The amount of exchange was apportioned to Ca and Mg based on their relative concentrations in the stream. The background fluxes of Ca and Mg (i.e., those that would occur in the absence of deicing salts) were calculated by subtracting the amounts from ion exchange plus the much smaller direct contributions in deicing salts from the observed fluxes. Ion exchange and direct salt contributions increased the net output fluxes of Ca and Mg, each by 44% above background. In basins that receive deicing salts, failure to account for cation exchange thus may result in an underestimate of the flux of Na from weathering and overestimates of the fluxes of Ca and Mg from weathering.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2025

Widespread occurrence of former anhydrite phenocrysts in Laramide-age magmas related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, USA

Reports of magmatic anhydrite are relatively rare, with only ~30 occurrences documented worldwide so far. However, magmatic anhydrite saturation is difficult to recognize because anhydrite decomposes rapidly in near-surface environments. In most cases, only anhydrite inclusions shielded within other phenocryst phases were able to survive. Alternatively, since anhydrite phenocrysts preserved in fresh volcanic rocks are characteristically intergrown with apatite phenocrysts, the former presence of anhydrite phenocrysts can be recognized based on the occurrence of lath-shaped cavities that show a strong spatial association with apatite phenocrysts. These cavities can be either empty or filled with low-temperature, secondary minerals such as zeolites, carbonates, or microcrystalline silica. A systematic search for the occurrence of such cavities, combined with optical and Raman-spectroscopic identification of anhydrite inclusions preserved within apatite, hornblende and quartz phenocrysts, demonstrates that most of the Laramide-age magmas associated with the Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro porphyry-skarn Cu (Zn, Mo, Au, Pb) deposits were saturated in magmatic anhydrite. The anhydrite typically coexisted with monosulfide solid solution (MSS), suggesting oxygen fugacities of ~2.0±0.5 log units above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer. The magmas range from andesitic to rhyodacitic in composition, and from shortly pre-mineralization (~61 Ma) to shortly post-mineralization (~57 Ma) in age. In three samples with particularly well-recognizable former anhydrite phenocrysts, their modal abundance could be quantified based on high-resolution scans of polished hand specimens. The observed modal anhydrite abundances of 0.63–1.8 vol% translate into minimum magma sulfur contents of 0.20–0.56 wt% S. The highest sulfur content of 0.56 wt% S is difficult to reconcile with available anhydrite solubility models, but it could be reproduced in an anhydrite solubility experiment performed at 950 °C and 1.15 GPa on a natural latite containing 13.1 wt% dissolved H2O. The sample with the second-highest sulfur content of 0.26 wt% S requires ~10 wt% H2O in the silicate melt, and, consequently, a minimum pressure of ~0.5 GPa. Taken together, the results suggest that the magmas of the Central Mining District were extremely hydrous and thus originated from great depth. Indeed, their major element compositions and reconstructed H2O and S contents agree well with experimentally observed and numerically predicted compositions of residual silicate melts after 50–70 wt% crystallization of ordinary arc basalts at high pressure and high oxygen fugacities.

New Mexico↗

USGS2007

The role of headwater streams in downstream water quality

Knowledge of headwater influences on the water-quality and flow conditions of downstream waters is essential to water-resource management at all governmental levels; this includes recent court decisions on the jurisdiction of the Federal Clean Water Act (CWA) over upland areas that contribute to larger downstream water bodies. We review current watershed research and use a water-quality model to investigate headwater influences on downstream receiving waters. Our evaluations demonstrate the intrinsic connections of headwaters to landscape processes and downstream waters through their influence on the supply, transport, and fate of water and solutes in watersheds. Hydrological processes in headwater catchments control the recharge of subsurface water stores, flow paths, and residence times of water throughout landscapes. The dynamic coupling of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in upland streams further controls the chemical form, timing, and longitudinal distances of solute transport to downstream waters. We apply the spatially explicit, mass-balance watershed model SPARROW to consider transport and transformations of water and nutrients throughout stream networks in the northeastern United States. We simulate fluxes of nitrogen, a primary nutrient that is a water-quality concern for acidification of streams and lakes and eutrophication of coastal waters, and refine the model structure to include literature observations of nitrogen removal in streams and lakes. We quantify nitrogen transport from headwaters to downstream navigable waters, where headwaters are defined within the model as first-order, perennial streams that include flow and nitrogen contributions from smaller, intermittent and ephemeral streams. We find that first-order headwaters contribute approximately 70% of the mean-annual water volume and 65% of the nitrogen flux in second-order streams. Their contributions to mean water volume and nitrogen flux decline only marginally to about 55% and 40% in fourth- and higher-order rivers that include navigable waters and their tributaries. These results underscore the profound influence that headwater areas have on shaping downstream water quantity and water quality. The results have relevance to water-resource management and regulatory decisions and potentially broaden understanding of the spatial extent of Federal CWA jurisdiction in U.S. waters. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2026

Water volumes, heat flow, and solute discharge from Old Faithful Geyser eruptions, Yellowstone National Park, USA

The iconic Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA, has attracted a significant amount of research because of the relative regularity and impressive size of its eruptions. Numerous studies have included observations, measurements, and analyses that informed models of geyser eruptions. However, fundamental quantities, including the associated mass and heat discharged, remain poorly constrained. In April 2025 we measured the volume of water from 45 Old Faithful Geyser eruptions using a portable flume in an outflow channel and specific conductance measurements in the Firehole River. We used high-speed video to perform velocimetry, measured changes in water chemistry to calculate the volume of water evaporated along the outflow channels, and used thermodynamic calculations to estimate the volume of water erupted as steam and to quantify the geyser's heat output. The calculated average volume of water discharged by Old Faithful Geyser in each eruption is 27.9 ± 9.4 m 3 , with no relation between eruption volume and the length of the preceding eruption interval. Video analysis of the eruption's liquid-dominated phase yields similar volumes of 21–30 m 3 . The calculated heat flow from the geyser is 2.2–2.4 MW and the average annual discharge of chloride, fluoride, and arsenic are 63 tons, 3.9 tons, and 241 kg, respectively. Average annual silica deposition rate on the geyser cone and along the outflow channels is 7 tons. This study provides a methodology for future studies at geysers worldwide and a baseline for monitoring future activity changes at Old Faithful.

Wyoming↗

USGS2003

Chemical analyses of pore water from boreholes USW SD-6 and USW WT-24, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Analyses of pore water extracted from cores of boreholes USW SD-6 in the central part and USW WT-24 in the northern part of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, show significant vertical and lateral variations in dissolved-ion concentrations. Analyses of samples of only a few milliliters of pore water extracted by uniaxial or triaxial compression and by ultracentrifugation methods from adjacent core samples are generally in agreement, within the analytical error of 10% to 15%. However, the values of silica for water obtained by ultracentrifugation are consistently lower than values for water obtained by compression. The larger concentrations probably are due to localized pressure solution of silicate minerals during compression. The shallower water from core in borehole USW SD-6 was extracted from nonwelded units collectively referred to as the Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded (PTn). The deeper water was from core in both boreholes USW SD-6 and USW WT-24 in the nonwelded units referred to as the Calico Hills nonwelded (CHn). Significant differences in mean dissolved-ion concentrations in pore water between the PTn and CHn are (1) decreases in Ca, Mg, SO4, and NO3 and (2) increases in HCO3 and (Na+K)/(Ca+Mg) ratios. The decrease in NO3 and the increase in HCO3 could be the result of denitrification through the oxidation of organic matter. The decrease in Ca and associated increase in (Na+K)/(Ca+Mg) is the result of ion exchange with zeolites in the CHn in borehole USW WT-24. This effect is not nearly as pronounced in borehole USW SD-6, probably reflecting a smaller amount of zeolitization of the CHn in USW SD-6. Geochemical calculations using the PHREEQC code indicate that the pore water from both boreholes USW SD-6 and USW WT-24 is uniformly undersaturated in anhydrite, gypsum, and amorphous silica, but supersaturated in quartz and chalcedony. The saturation of calcite, aragonite, sepiolite, and dolomite is more variable from sample to sample. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2024

First documentation of grass carp spawning in Lake Erie’s Central Basin

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) are non-indigenous to North America having been translocated to the United States in the 1960s as a potential non-chemical solution for nuisance aquatic vegetation. Reproductively viable grass carp now exist in many watersheds in the United States. In the Great Lakes basin, grass carp were first discovered in the 1980s with direct confirmation of successful reproduction in 2015 via collection of fertilized grass carp eggs in the Sandusky River. Early life stage monitoring also confirmed reproduction in the Maumee River in 2017. During 2018–2021, no new spawning tributaries were discovered (18 total sampling events in five Great Lakes tributaries). In 2022, fourteen eggs with characteristics similar to grass carp were identified from the Huron River which is a tributary to Lake Erie’s Central Basin. Eggs were identified to species via DNA sequencing and were determined to be grass carp eggs. The confirmation of spawning in the Huron River represents a third spawning tributary in the Lake Erie basin and expands eastward the geographic extent of known grass carp spawning locations. Presently, the ability of the Huron River to support hatching and survival of larval grass carp is unknown. Discovery of the Huron River as a grass carp spawning tributary identifies the value of continued surveillance in Great Lakes tributaries for early life stages and conducting scientific inquiries evaluating the consistency of tributary use and survival of early life stages.

Ohio↗

USGS2012

Using borehole flow logging to optimize hydraulic-test procedures in heterogeneous fractured aquifers

Hydraulic properties of heterogeneous fractured aquifers are difficult to characterize, and such characterization usually requires equipment-intensive and time-consuming applications of hydraulic testing in situ. Conventional coring and geophysical logging techniques provide useful and reliable information on the distribution of bedding planes, fractures and solution openings along boreholes, but it is often unclear how these locally permeable features are organized into larger-scale zones of hydraulic conductivity. New boreholes flow-logging equipment provides techniques designed to identify hydraulically active fractures intersecting boreholes, and to indicate how these fractures might be connected to larger-scale flow paths in the surrounding aquifer. Potential complications in interpreting flowmeter logs include: 1) Ambient hydraulic conditions that mask the detection of hydraulically active fractures; 2) Inability to maintain quasi-steady drawdowns during aquifer tests, which causes temporal variations in flow intensity to be confused with inflows during pumping; and 3) Effects of uncontrolled background variations in hydraulic head, which also complicate the interpretation of inflows during aquifer tests. Application of these techniques is illustrated by the analysis of cross-borehole flowmeter data from an array of four bedrock boreholes in granitic schist at the Mirror Lake, New Hampshire, research site. Only two days of field operations were required to unambiguously identify the few fractures or fracture zones that contribute most inflow to boreholes in the CO borehole array during pumping. Such information was critical in the interpretation of water-quality data. This information also permitted the setting of the available string of two packers in each borehole so as to return the aquifer as close to pre-drilling conditions as possible with the available equipment.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2018

Imidacloprid sorption and transport in cropland, grass buffer and riparian buffer soils

An understanding of neonicotinoid sorption and transport in soil is critical for determining and mitigating environmental risk associated with the most widely used class of insecticides. The objective of this study was to evaluate mobility and transport of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid (ICD) in soils collected from cropland, grass vegetative buffer strip (VBS), and riparian VBS soils. Soils were collected at six randomly chosen sites within grids that encompassed all three land uses. Single-point equilibrium batch sorption experiments were conducted using radio-labeled ( 14 C) ICD to determine solid–solution partition coefficients ( K d ). Column experiments were conducted using soils collected from the three vegetation treatments at one site by packing soil into glass columns. Water flow was characterized by applying Br − as a nonreactive tracer. A single pulse of 14 C-ICD was then applied, and ICD leaching was monitored for up to 45 d. Bromide and ICD breakthrough curves for each column were simulated using CXTFIT and HYDRUS-1D models. Sorption results indicated that ICD sorbs more strongly to riparian VBS ( K d = 22.6 L kg −1 ) than crop ( K d = 11.3 L kg −1 ) soils. Soil organic C was the strongest predictor of ICD sorption ( p < 0.0001). The column transport study found mean peak concentrations of ICD at 5.83, 10.84, and 23.8 pore volumes for crop, grass VBS, and riparian VBS soils, respectively. HYDRUS-1D results indicated that the two-site, one-rate linear reversible model best described results of the breakthrough curves, indicating the complexity of ICD sorption and demonstrating its mobility in soil. Greater sorption and longer retention by the grass and riparian VBS soils than the cropland soil suggests that VBS may be a viable means to mitigate ICD loss from agroecosystems, thereby preventing ICD transport into surface water, groundwater, or drinking water resources.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS2010

Structured decision-making and rapid prototyping to plan a management response to an invasive species

We developed components of a decision structure that could be used in an adaptive management framework for responding to invasion of hemlock woolly adelgid Adeleges tsugae on the Cumberland Plateau of northern Tennessee. Hemlock woolly adelgid, an invasive forest pest, was first detected in this area in 2007. We used a structured decision-making process to identify and refine the management problem, objectives, and alternative management actions, and to assess consequences and tradeoffs among selected management alternatives. We identified four fundamental objectives: 1) conserve the aquatic and terrestrial riparian conservation targets, 2) protect and preserve hemlock, 3) develop and maintain adequate budget, and 4) address public concerns. We designed two prototype responses using an iterative process. By rapidly prototyping a first solution, insights were gained and shortcomings were identified, and some of these shortcomings were incorporated and corrected in the second prototype. We found that objectives were best met when management focused on early treatment of lightly to moderately infested but relatively healthy hemlock stands with biological control agent predator beetles and insect-killing fungi. Also, depending on the cost constraint, early treatment should be coupled with silvicultural management of moderately to severely infested and declining hemlock stands to accelerate conversion to nonhemlock mature forest cover. The two most valuable contributions of the structured decision-making process were 1) clarification and expansion of our objectives, and 2) application of tools to assess tradeoffs and predict consequences of alternative actions. Predicting consequences allowed us to evaluate the influence of uncertainty on the decision. For example, we found that the expected number of mature forest stands over 30 y would be increased by 4% by resolving the uncertainty regarding predator beetle effectiveness. The adaptive management framework requires further development including identifying and evaluating uncertainty, formalizing other competing predictive models, designing a monitoring program to update the predictive models, developing a process for re-evaluating the predictive models and incorporating new management technologies, and generating support for planning and implementation.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

Preparing wildlife for climate change: How far have we come?

Global biodiversity is in unprecedented decline and on-the-ground solutions are imperative for conservation. Although there is a large volume of evidence related to climate change effects on wildlife, research on climate adaptation strategies is lagging. To assess the current state of knowledge in climate adaptation, we conducted a comprehensive literature review and evaluated 1,346 peer-reviewed publications for management recommendations designed to address the consequences of climate change on wildlife populations. From 509 publications, we identified 2,306 recommendations and employed both qualitative and quantitative methods for data analysis. Although we found an increase in the volume and diversity of recommendations since 2007, a focus on protected areas (26%, 596 of 2,306 recommendations) and the non-reserve matrix (12%, 276 of 2,306 recommendations) remained prominent in the climate adaptation literature. Common concepts include protected areas, invasive species, ecosystem services, adaptive management, stepping stones, assisted migration, and conservation easements. In contrast, only 1% of recommendations focused on reproduction ( n = 26), survival ( n = 14), disease ( n = 26), or human-wildlife conflict ( n = 24). Few recommendations reflected the potential for local-scale management interventions. We demonstrate limited advancement in preparing natural resource managers in climate adaptation at local, management-relevant scales. Additional research is needed to identify and evaluate climate adaptation strategies aimed at reducing the vulnerability of wildlife to contemporary climate change. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Long-term changes in nitrate conditions over the 20th century in two Midwestern Corn Belt streams

Long-term changes in nitrate concentration and flux between the middle of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century were estimated for the Des Moines River and the Middle Illinois River, two Midwestern Corn Belt streams, using a novel weighted regression approach that is able to detect subtle changes in solute transport behavior over time. The results show that the largest changes in flow-normalized concentration and flux occurred between 1960 and 1980 in both streams, with smaller or negligible changes between 1980 and 2004. Contrasting patterns were observed between (1) nitrate export linked to non-point sources, explicitly runoff of synthetic fertilizer or other surface sources and (2) nitrate export presumably associated with point sources such as urban wastewater or confined livestock feeding facilities, with each of these modes of transport important under different domains of streamflow. Surface runoff was estimated to be consistently most important under high-flow conditions during the spring in both rivers. Nitrate export may also have been considerable in the Des Moines River even under some conditions during the winter when flows are generally lower, suggesting the influence of point sources during this time. Similar results were shown for the Middle Illinois River, which is subject to significant influence of wastewater from the Chicago area, where elevated nitrate concentrations were associated with at the lowest flows during the winter and fall. By modeling concentration directly, this study highlights the complex relationship between concentration and streamflow that has evolved in these two basins over the last 50 years. This approach provides insights about changing conditions that only become observable when stationarity in the relationship between concentration and streamflow is not assumed.

Illinois, Iowa↗

USGS1998

Episodic fluid flow in the Nankai accretionary complex: Timescale, geochemistry, flow rates, and fluid budget

Down-hole geochemical anomalies encountered in active accretionary systems can be used to constrain the timing, rates, and localization of fluid flow. Here we combine a coupled flow and solute transport model with a kinetic model for smectite dehydration to better understand and quantify fluid flow in the Nankai accretionary complex offshore of Japan. Compaction of sediments and clay dehydration provide fluid sources which drive the model flow system. We explicitly include the consolidation rate of underthrust sediments in our calculations to evaluate the impact that variations in this unknown quantity have on pressure and chloride distribution. Sensitivity analysis of steady state pressure solutions constrains bulk and flow conduit permeabilities. Steady state simulations with 30% smectite in the incoming sedimentary sequence result in minimum chloride concentrations at site 808 of 550 m M , but measured chlorinity is as low as 447 m M . We simulate the transient effects of hydrofracture or a strain event by assuming an instantaneous permeability increase of 3–4 orders of magnitude along a flow conduit (in this case the décollement), using steady state results as initial conditions. Transient results with an increase in décollement permeability from 10 −16 m 2 to 10 −13 m 2 and 20% smectite reproduce the observed chloride profile at site 808 after 80–160 kyr. Modeled chloride concentrations are highly sensitive to the consolidation rate of underthrust sediments, such that rapid compaction of underthrust material leads to increased freshening. Pressures within the décollement during transient simulations rise rapidly to a significant fraction of lithostatic and remain high for at least 160 kyr, providing a mechanism for maintaining high permeability. Flow rates at the deformation front for transient simulations are in good agreement with direct measurements, but steady state flow rates are 2–3 orders of magnitude smaller than observed. Fluid budget calculations indicate that nearly 71% of the incoming water in the sediments leaves the accretionary wedge via diffuse flow out the seafloor, 0–5% escapes by focused flow along the décollement, and roughly 1% is subducted.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2003

Motion of the Scotia sea plates

Earthquake data from the Scotia Arc to early 2002 are reviewed in the light of satellite gravity and other data in order to derive a model for the motion of plates in the Scotia Sea region. Events with magnitude ???5, which occurred on or near the boundaries of the Scotia and Sandwich plates, and for which Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions are available, are examined. The newer data fill some of the previous sampling gaps along the boundaries of the Scotia and Sandwich plates, and provide tighter constraints on relative motions. Variations in the width of the Brunhes anomaly on evenly spaced marine magnetic profiles over the East Scotia Ridge provide new estimates of Scotia-Sandwich plate spreading rates. Since there are no stable fracture zones in the east Scotia Sea, the mean azimuth of sea floor fabric mapped by sidescan is used to constrain the direction of spreading. 18 new rate estimates and four azimuths from the East Scotia Ridge are combined with 68 selected earthquake slip vectors from the boundaries of the Scotia Sea in a least-squares inversion for the best-fitting set of Euler poles and angular rotation rates describing the 'present-day' motions of the Scotia and Sandwich plates relative to South America and Antarctica. Our preferred model (TLP2003) gives poles that are similar to previous estimates, except for Scotia Plate motion with respect to South America, which is significantly different from earlier estimates; predicted rates of motion also differ slightly. Our results are much more robust than earlier work. We examine the implications of the model for motion and deformation along the various plate boundaries, with particular reference to the North and South Scotia Ridges, where rates are obtained by closure.

Geophysical Journal International↗