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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources

Seismic monitoring at Cascade volcanic centers, 2004 — Status and recommendations

The purpose of this report is to assess the current (May, 2004) status of seismic monitoring networks at the 13 major Cascade volcanic centers. Included in this assessment are descriptions of each network, analyses of the ability of each network to detect and to locate seismic activity, identification of specific weaknesses in each network, and a prioritized list of those networks that are most in need of additional seismic stations. At the outset it should be recognized that no Cascade volcanic center currently has an adequate seismic network relative to modern-day networks at Usu Volcano (Japan) or Etna and Stromboli volcanoes (Italy). For a system the size of Three Sisters, for example, a modern-day, cutting-edge seismic network would ideally consist of a minimum of 10 to 12 short-period three-component seismometers (for determining particle motions, reliable S-wave picks, moment tensor inversions, fault-plane solutions, and other important seismic parameters) and 7 to 10 broadband sensors (which, amongst other considerations, enable detection and location of very long period (VLP) and other low-frequency events, moment tensor inversions, and, because of their wide dynamic range, on-scale recording of large-amplitude events). Such a dense, multi component seismic network would give the ability to, for example, detect in near-real-time earthquake migrations over a distance of ~0.5km or less, locate tremor sources, determine the nature of a seismic source (that is, pure shear, implosive, explosive), provide on-scale recordings of very small and very large-amplitude seismic signals, and detect localized changes in seismic stress tensor orientations caused by movement of magma bodies. However, given that programmatic resources are currently limited, installation of such networks at this time is unrealistic. Instead, this report focuses on identifying what additional stations are needed to guarantee that anomalous seismicity associated with volcanic unrest will be detected in a timely manner and, in the case of magnitude = 1 earthquakes, reliably located.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗

Preserving science for the ages--USGS data rescue

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is a steward for over 130 years of rich, diverse natural science and information resources. We document one-of-a-kind observations of natural phenomena and cultural impacts on our changing world. In order for society to deal with national and global trends, the USGS must enable access and use of legacy, inaccessible information by including these data in our digital archives and databases. The USGS has conducted scientific assessments on the quality and quantity of the Nation's water resources, provided access to geospatial and natural resource data, and conducted multi-purpose natural science studies. All of these have generated records that need to be accessible and integrated in order to be examined for new information and interpretations that were never intended by the original collector. The Federal Records Act of 1950 mandates that the USGS preserve Federal records containing evidence of the agency's organization, functions, policies, decisions, procedures, and essential transactions. At the USGS, the goal of Open Government is to improve and increase access to scientific information. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the USGS to preserve, make available, and provide accountability for the data that it creates from our scientific projects.

Fact Sheet↗

Comparisons of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea-ice projections in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecoregions during the 21st century

Climate model projections are commonly used to assess potential impacts of global warming on a breadth of social, economic, and environmental topics. Modeling centers throughout the world coordinate to apply a consistent suite of radiative forcing experiments so that all model outputs can be collectively analyzed and compared. Three generations of model outputs have been produced and made available to the scientific community through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP3 disseminated during the mid-2000s, CMIP5 during the early-2010s, and CMIP6 during the late-2010s. Twenty-first century sea-ice projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models have been used in Bayesian network assessments of how climate change could impact the future persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout their range. In this report, we compare sea-ice projections by CMIP6 models to those of CMIP5 models in each of four polar bear ecoregions over the 21st century. We evaluate differences between the two CMIP generations with respect to other sources of variability that affect uncertainties of the model projections: (1) variability from different models; (2) variability from different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios; and (3) natural (internal) variability in the earth’s climate system. We found that natural variability as well as that attributable to models dominated uncertainties in sea-ice projections in all months and ecoregions during the first half of the 21st century, while emissions scenarios dominated uncertainties during the late 21st century. By comparison, we found only slight differences between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 model projections of sea ice. Applying CMIP6 instead of CMIP5 sea-ice projections to the polar bear Bayesian network model developed in 2016, therefore, would not qualitatively change the population status outcomes published therein.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

The Sandy Hook Unit, Gateway National Recreation Area (hereafter Sandy Hook) in New Jersey is a 10-kilometer-long spit visited by thousands of people each year who take advantage of the historical and natural resources and recreational opportunities. The historical and natural resources are threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation and groundwater recharge, and changes in the frequency and severity of coastal storms. Fresh groundwater resources are important to the ecosystems of Sandy Hook. The Bayside Holly Forest, one of only two known old-growth American holly ( Ilex opaca ) maritime forests, is particularly vulnerable to global climate change because of the proximity of the water table to land surface in low-lying areas and the potential for saltwater intrusion and inundation. The shallow groundwater-flow system on Sandy Hook is dominated by recharge from precipitation, fresh groundwater discharge to evapotranspiration (ET), discharge to surface seeps, and submarine groundwater discharge (groundwater discharging directly to the ocean). A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates the shallow groundwater-flow system and interaction with surrounding saltwater boundaries was constructed to simulate multi-density groundwater flow, treating the freshwater/saltwater transition zone as a sharp interface that represents the half-seawater surface. Groundwater-flow simulations completed for this study include a Baseline scenario, three SLR scenarios (0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 meter [m]), two Recharge scenarios—a 10-percent Increased Recharge scenario and a 10-percent Decreased Recharge scenario—and a scenario with 0.6 m of SLR and 10-percent increase in recharge. The Recharge scenarios indicate the system is not sensitive to a 10-percent increase or decrease in recharge from the Baseline scenario. In the SLR scenarios, SLR causes the water table to rise, resulting in increased fresh groundwater discharge to ET and seeps, and reduced submarine discharge compared to the Baseline scenario. The increased discharge to ET and seeps causes the magnitude of water-table rise to be less than that of SLR, which in turn causes the thickness of the freshwater lens to thin, reducing the depth to the half-seawater surface. Water-table rise associated with SLR diminishes the thickness of the unsaturated zone; comparing the Baseline and the 0.6-m SLR scenarios, the area where the simulated water table is above land surface increases by 50.6 hectares, from about 0.9 to 7.4 percent of the land area of Sandy Hook. Areas where the simulated water table is above land surface are likely to be emergent wetlands and contain freshwater if they are tens of meters or more from the shoreline. The steady-state simulations indicate that the percentage of land where the half-seawater surface is less than 9 m below the water table increases from about 2.5 percent (20 hectares) to about 9 percent (74 hectares) with 0.6 m of SLR. In low-lying areas close to the Sandy Hook Bay shoreline, the half-seawater surface is simulated to be as much as 20 m closer to the water table with SLR of 0.6 m. Transient salinization, if any, of shallow groundwater from increased frequency or severity of storm-driven inundation is not included in the analysis. Natural resources on Sandy Hook, particularly the Bayside Holly Forest, may be adversely affected by the rising water table associated with SLR. Freshwater emergent wetlands may increase in area at the expense of other ecosystem assemblages occurring in or on the edges of low-lying enclosed depressions. Cultural resources close to the water table, such as existing basements of structures, may be adversely affected.

New Jersey↗

Sample descriptions and geophysical logs for cored well BP-3-USGS, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Alamosa County, Colorado

The BP-3-USGS well was drilled at the southwestern corner of Great Sand Dunes National Park in the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado, 68 feet (ft, 20.7 meters [m]) southwest of the National Park Service’s boundary-piezometer (BP) well 3. BP-3-USGS is located at latitude 37°43ʹ18.06ʺN. and longitude 105°43ʹ39.30ʺW., at an elevation of 7,549 ft (2,301 m). The well was drilled through poorly consolidated sediments to a depth of 326 ft (99.4 m) in September 2009. Water began flowing from the well after penetrating a clay-rich layer that was first intercepted at a depth of 119 ft (36.3 m). The base of this layer, at an elevation of 7,415 ft (2,260 m) above sea level, likely marks the top of a regional confined aquifer recognized throughout much of the San Luis Valley. Approximately 69 ft (21 m) of core was recovered (about 21 percent), almost exclusively from clay-rich zones. Coarser grained fractions were collected from mud extruded from the core barrel or captured from upwelling drilling fluids. Natural gamma-ray, full waveform sonic, density, neutron, resistivity, spontaneous potential, and induction logs were acquired. The well is now plugged and abandoned. This report presents lithologic descriptions from the well samples and core, along with a compilation and basic data processing of the geophysical logs. The succession of sediments in the well can be generalized into three lithologic packages: (1) mostly sand from the surface to about 77 ft (23.5 m) depth; (2) interbedded sand, silt, and clay, decreasing in overall grain size downward, from 77 to 232 ft (23.5 to 70.7 m) depth; and (3) layers of massive clay alternating with layers of fine sand to silt from 232 to 326 ft (70.7 to 99.4 m), the total depth of the well. The topmost clay layers of the deepest package have a blue tint, prompting a correlation with the “blue clay” of the San Luis Valley that is commonly considered as the top of the confined aquifer. However, a confining clay was intercepted 113 ft (34.4 m) higher than the blue clay in BP-3-USGS. Most of the geophysical logs have good correspondence to the lithologic variations in the well. Exceptions are the gamma-ray log, which is likely affected by naturally occurring radiation from abundant volcanic detritus, and one interval within the deepest lithologic package, which appears to be abnormally electrically conductive. Resistivity logs and variations in sand versus clay content within the well are consistent with electrical resistivity models derived from time-domain electromagnetic geophysical surveys for the area. In particular, the topmost blue clay corresponds to a strong electrical conductor that is prominent in the electromagnetic geophysical data throughout the park and vicinity. BP-3-USGS was sited to test hypotheses developed from geophysical studies and to answer questions about the history and evolution of Pliocene and Pleistocene Lake Alamosa, which is represented by lacustrine deposits sampled by the well. The findings reported here represent a basis from which future studies can answer these questions and address other important scientific questions in the San Luis Valley regarding geologic history and climate change, groundwater hydrology, and geophysical interpretation.

Colorado↗

Chlorophyll a in lakes and streams of the United States (2005–2022)

The concentration of chlorophyll a in phytoplankton and periphyton represents the amount of algal biomass. We compiled an 18-year record (2005–2022) of pigment data from water bodies across the United States (US) to support efforts to develop process-based, machine learning, and remote sensing models for prediction of harmful algal blooms (HABs). To our knowledge, this dataset of nearly 84,000 sites and over 1,374,000 pigment measurements is the largest compilation of harmonized discrete, laboratory-extracted chlorophyll data for the US. These data were compiled from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) and previously unpublished U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) data. Data were harmonized for reporting units, pigment type, duplicate values, collection depth, site name, negative values, and some extreme values. Across the country, data show great variation by state in sampling frequency, distribution, and methods. Uses for such data include the calibration of models, calibration of field sensors, examination of relationship to nutrients and other drivers, evaluation of temporal trends, and other applications addressing local to national scale concerns.

Nature Scientific Data↗

Geomorphic Classification and Assessment of Channel Dynamics in the Missouri National Recreational River, South Dakota and Nebraska

A multiscale geomorphic classification was established for the 39-mile, 59-mile, and adjacent segments of the Missouri National Recreational River administered by the National Park Service in South Dakota and Nebraska. The objective of the classification was to define naturally occurring clusters of geomorphic characteristics that would be indicative of discrete sets of geomorphic processes, with the intent that such a classification would be useful in river-management and rehabilitation decisions. The statistical classification was based on geomorphic characteristics of the river collected from 1999 orthophotography and the persistence of classified units was evaluated by comparison with similar datasets for 2003 and 2004 and by evaluating variation of bank erosion rates by geomorphic class. Changes in channel location and form were also explored using imagery and maps from 1993-2004, 1941 and 1894. The multivariate classification identified a hierarchy of naturally occurring clusters of reach-scale geomorphic characteristics. The simplest level of the hierarchy divides the river from segments into discrete reaches characterized by single and multithread channels and additional hierarchical levels established 4-part and 10-part classifications. The classification system presents a physical framework that can be applied to prioritization and design of bank stabilization projects, design of habitat rehabilitation projects, and stratification of monitoring and assessment sampling programs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Land Disturbance Associated with Oil and Gas Development and Effects of Development-Related Land Disturbance on Dissolved-Solids Loads in Streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1991, 2007, and 2025

Oil and gas resource development in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has increased substantially since the year 2000. The UCRB encompasses several significant oil and gas producing areas that have the potential for continued oil and gas resource development. Land disturbance associated with oil and gas resource development is caused by activities related to constructing drill pads to contain drilling and well maintenance equipment and roads to access the drill pad. Land disturbed by oil and gas development has the potential to cause increased erosion, stream degradation, habitat fragmentation and alteration, and increase public use of areas that may be environmentally sensitive. Land disturbance resulting from oil and gas resource development has not been monitored and mapped on a regional scale in the UCRB. However, information on the location and age of oil and gas wells in the UCRB is available. These data combined with geographic data analysis and modeling techniques were used to estimate the total area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas resource development in 1991 and in 2007 in the UCRB. Additional information about anticipated oil and gas development in the UCRB was used to project land disturbance to the year 2025. Results of the analysis indicate that approximately 117,500 acres (183 mi2) of total land disturbance was associated with drill pads and related roads in the UCRB in 1991. The estimated area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas development increased 53 percent to 179,400 acres (280 mi2) in 2007. Projecting oil and gas development through 2025 results in a potential near doubling of the land surface disturbance to approximately 319,300 acres (500 mi2). Estimated land disturbance for 1991 and 2007 were input to a contaminant transport model developed for the UCRB to assess the statistical significance of energy-related land disturbance to contributing dissolved solids to basin streams. The statistical assessment was an observational study based on an existing model and available water-quality monitoring data for the basin. No new data were collected for the analysis. The source coefficient calibrated for the disturbed lands associated with oil and gas development in 2007 was zero, which indicated that estimated land disturbance from oil and gas development is not statistically significant in explaining dissolved solids in UCRB streams. The lack of significance in the contaminant transport modeling framework may be due to the amount of available monitoring data, the spatial distribution of monitoring sites with respect to land disturbance, or the overall quantity of land disturbance associated with oil and gas development basin wide. Finally, dissolved-solids loads derived from natural landscapes may be similar to loads derived from lands disturbed by oil and gas resource development. The model recalibration done for this study confirms calibration results from Kenney and others (2009): the most significant contributor to dissolved solids in the UCRB is irrigated agricultural land, which covers an area substantially larger than the estimated area disturbed by oil and gas development and is subjected to artificially applied water.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Surface-Water and Ground-Water Interactions in the Central Everglades, Florida

Recharge and discharge are hydrological processes that cause Everglades surface water to be exchanged for subsurface water in the peat soil and the underlying sand and limestone aquifer. These interactions are thought to be important to water budgets, water quality, and ecology in the Everglades. Nonetheless, relatively few studies of surface water and ground water interactions have been conducted in the Everglades, especially in its vast interior areas. This report is a product of a cooperative investigation conducted by the USGS and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) aimed at developing and testing techniques that would provide reliable estimates of recharge and discharge in interior areas of WCA-2A (Water Conservation Area 2A) and several other sites in the central Everglades. The new techniques quantified flow from surface water to the subsurface (recharge) and the opposite (discharge) using (1) Darcy-flux calculations based on measured vertical gradients in hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity of peat; (2) modeling transport through peat and decay of the naturally occurring isotopes 224 Ra and 223 Ra (with half-lives of 4 and 11 days, respectively); and (3) modeling transport and decay of naturally occurring and "bomb-pulse" tritium (half-life of 12.4 years) in ground water. Advantages and disadvantages of each method for quantifying recharge and discharge were compared. In addition, spatial and temporal variability of recharge and discharge were evaluated and controlling factors identified. A final goal was to develop appropriately simplified (that is, time averaged) expressions of the results that will be useful in addressing a broad range of hydrological and ecological problems in the Everglades. Results were compared with existing information about water budgets from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), a principal tool used by the South Florida Water Management District to plan many of the hydrological aspects of the Everglades restoration.

Florida↗

Development of a screening tool to examine lake and reservoir susceptibility to eutrophication in selected watersheds of the eastern and southeastern United States

This report describes a new screening tool to examine lake and reservoir susceptibility to eutrophication in selected watersheds of the eastern and southeastern United States using estimated nutrient loading and flushing rates with measures of waterbody morphometry. To that end, the report documents the compiled data and methods (R-script) used to categorize waterbodies by Carlson’s Trophic State Index. Assessments were completed for 232 lakes and reservoirs having a surface area greater than or equal to 0.1 square kilometer in watersheds that drain to the Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico coasts of the United States and in watersheds within the Tennessee River Basin. Waterbodies were categorized by type—natural lakes, headwater reservoirs, and downstream reservoirs—and were assessed independently. Recursive partitioning and the model-based boosting routine were used to create four-node regression trees to group waterbodies into five endpoints from low-to-high measures of Secchi depth, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and microcystin according to shared nutrient loading, flushing rate, and morphometric characteristics. Trophic state designations were assigned based on the average value within each of the five endpoints. An application (procedure) is provided using the tool to examine the susceptibility of a given waterbody of interest to eutrophication. Results of this study can aid water-resource managers in prioritizing lake and reservoir protection and restoration efforts based on the susceptibility of these waterbodies to eutrophication relative to nutrient loading, flushing rate, and morphometric characteristics.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Developing fluvial fish species distribution models across the conterminous United States—A framework for management and conservation

This report explains the steps and specific methods used to predict fluvial fish occurrences in their native ranges for the conterminous United States. In this study, boosted regression tree models predict distributions of 271 ecologically important fluvial fish species using relations between fish presence/absence and 22 natural and anthropogenic landscape variables. Models developed for the freshwater portions of the ranges for species represented 28 families. Cyprinidae was the family with the most species (87 of 271) modeled for this study, followed by Percidae (34) and Ictaluridae (17). Model predictive performance was evaluated using four metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and True Skill Statistic, which are all from tenfold cross-validation results. The relative importance of the predictor variables in the boosted regression tree models was calculated and ranked for each species. The three strongest natural predictors of fish distributions were network catchment area, the mean annual air temperature of the local catchment, and the maximum elevation of the local catchment, while the three strongest anthropogenic predictors were downstream main stem dam density, distance to downstream main stem dam, and the percentage of pasture/hay land use area within network catchment boundaries. Study results showed 61 fish species were sensitive to climate variables, and 40 fish species were sensitive to anthropogenic stressors. The models developed in this study can be used to derive critical information regarding habitat protection priorities, anthropogenic threats, and potential effects of climate change on habitat suitability, aiding in efforts to conserve fluvial fishes now and into the future.

Conterminous United States↗

Status of three-dimensional geological mapping and modeling activities in the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), created in 1879, is the national geological survey for the United States and the sole science agency within its cabinet-level bureau, the Department of the Interior. The USGS has a broad mission, including: serving the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect quality of life. USGS scientific activities are organized around major topics, or Mission Areas, aligned with distinct science themes; three-dimensional (3-D) modelling typically supports research and project work within a specific Mission Area. The vastness, diversity, and complexity of the geological landscape of the United States has resulted in the creation of 3-D geological framework models that are local or regional in scale; a National-scale 3-D model is only beginning to evolve. This paper summarizes 3-D geological modeling at the USGS and does not discuss 3-D modeling that is conducted by other Federal agencies, state geological surveys, academia, or industry within the U.S. This paper updates and expands upon a similar status report of USGS 3-D modeling activities of Jacobsen et al. (2011).

Report↗

Ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge estimates for calendar year 2000 and average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow by hydrographic area, Nevada

Nevada's reliance on ground-water resources has increased because of increased development and surface-water resources being fully appropriated. The need to accurately quantify Nevada's water resources and water use is more critical than ever to meet future demands. Estimated ground-water pumpage, artificial and natural recharge, and interbasin flow can be used to help evaluate stresses on aquifer systems. In this report, estimates of ground-water pumpage and artificial recharge during calendar year 2000 were made using data from a variety of sources, such as reported estimates and estimates made using Landsat satellite imagery. Average annual natural recharge and interbasin flow were compiled from published reports. An estimated 1,427,100 acre-feet of ground water was pumped in Nevada during calendar year 2000. This total was calculated by summing six categories of ground-water pumpage, based on water use. Total artificial recharge during 2000 was about 145,970 acre-feet. At least one estimate of natural recharge was available for 209 of the 232 hydrographic areas (HAs). Natural recharge for the 209 HAs ranges from 1,793,420 to 2,583,150 acre-feet. Estimates of interbasin flow were available for 151 HAs. The categories and their percentage of the total ground-water pumpage are irrigation and stock watering (47 percent), mining (26 percent), water systems (14 percent), geothermal production (8 percent), self-supplied domestic (4 percent), and miscellaneous (less than 1 percent). Pumpage in the top 10 HAs accounted for about 49 percent of the total ground-water pumpage. The most ground-water pumpage in an HA was due to mining in Pumpernickel Valley (HA 65), Boulder Flat (HA 61), and Lower Reese River Valley (HA 59). Pumpage by water systems in Las Vegas Valley (HA 212) and Truckee Meadows (HA 87) were the fourth and fifth highest pumpage in 2000, respectively. Irrigation and stock watering pumpage accounted for most ground-water withdrawals in the HAs with the sixth through ninth highest pumpage. Geothermal production accounted for most pumpage in the Carson Desert (HA 101). Reinjection of ground water pumped for geothermal energy production accounted for about 64 percent (93,310 acre-feet) of the total artificial recharge. The only artificial recharge by water systems was in Las Vegas Valley, where 29,790 acre-feet of water from the Colorado River was injected into the aquifer system. Artificial recharge by mining totaled 22,870 acre-feet. Net ground-water flow was estimated only for the 143 HAs with available estimates of both natural recharge and interbasin flow. Of the 143 estimates, 58 have negative net ground-water flow, indicating that ground-water storage could be depleted if pumpage continues at the same rate. The State has designated HAs where permitted ground-water rights approach or exceed the estimated average annual recharge. Ten HAs were identified that are not designated and have a net ground-water flow between -1,000 to -35,000 acre-feet. Due to uncertainties in recharge, the water budgets for these HAs may need refining to determine if ground-water storage is being depleted.

Nevada↗

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Alaska↗

Evolution of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes

Everything responds to pressure, even rocks. Deformation studies involve measuring and interpreting the changes in elevations and horizontal positions of the land surface or sea floor. These studies are variously referred to as geodetic changes or ground-surface deformations and are sometimes indexed under the general heading of geodesy. Deformation studies have been particularly useful on active volcanoes and in active tectonic areas. A great amount of time and energy has been spent on measuring geodetic changes on Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes in Hawai`i. These changes include the build-up of the surface by the piling up and ponding of lava flows, the changes in the surface caused by erosion, and the uplift, subsidence, and horizontal displacements of the surface caused by internal processes acting beneath the surface. It is these latter changes that are the principal concern of this review. A complete and objective review of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes would take many volumes. Instead, we attempt to follow the evolution of the most significant observations and interpretations in a roughly chronological way. It is correct to say that this is a subjective review. We have spent years measuring and recording deformation changes on these great volcanoes and more years trying to understand what makes these changes occur. We attempt to make this a balanced as well as a subjective review; the references are also selective rather than exhaustive. Geodetic changes caused by internal geologic processes vary in magnitude from the nearly infinitesimal - one micron or less, to the very large - hundreds of meters. Their apparent causes also are varied and include changes in material properties and composition, atmospheric pressure, tidal stress, thermal stress, subsurface-fluid pressure (including magma pressure, magma intrusion, or magma removal), gravity, and tectonic stress. Deformation is measured in units of strain or displacement. For example, tilt of the ground surface on the rim of Kilauea Caldera is measured in microradians, a strain unit that gives the change in angle from some reference. The direction in which the tilt is measured must be defined - north or south, or some direction normal to the maximum changes. For displacements related to surface faulting, the changes are normally given in linear measures of offset. Changes in the diameter of a caldera can be given in either displacements or strain units. In the later case, the displacement divided by the 'original' diameter gives the strain ratio. Strains are dimensionless numbers; displacements have the dimensions of length. Vectors commonly are used to show the direction and amount of displacements in plan view. Strain results from stress. It can be elastic strain, when the strain is linearly related to stress and is recoverable; it can be viscous strain, where the rate of strain is proportional to the stress and is not recoverable; or it can be plastic strain that is often some complex stress-strain relationship, for example, elastic up to some yield strength and viscous beyond. Volcanic rocks are brittle when cold and under near-surface pressures but plastic to viscous under higher temperature and pressure regimes. It is important in deformation studies to try to define the nature of the strain and the rheology of the rocks being deformed. A good text on rheology is 'The Structure and Rheology of Complex Fluids' by R.G. Larson, 1999. Under changing tensional or compressional stresses, tiny cracks in brittle rocks may open or close, causing a quasielastic strain response. If the stresses exceed the breaking strength of the rock, brittle failure occurs, and the stress-strain relationship breaks down.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water quality and hydrology of the Silver River Watershed, Baraga County, Michigan, 2005-08

The Silver River Watershed comprises about 69 square miles and drains part of northeastern Baraga County, Michigan. For generations, tribal members of the Keweenaw Bay Indian Community have hunted and fished in the watershed. Tribal government and members of Keweenaw Bay Indian Community are concerned about the effect of any development within the watershed, which is rural, isolated, and lightly populated. For decades, the area has been explored for various minerals. Since 2004, several mineral-exploration firms have been actively investigating areas within the watershed; property acquisition, road construction, and subsurface drilling have taken place close to tributary streams of the Silver River. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Keweenaw Bay Indian Community, conducted a multi-year water-resources investigation of the Silver River Watershed during 2005-08. Methods of investigation included analyses of streamflow, water-quality sampling, and ecology at eight discrete sites located throughout the watershed. In addition, three continuous-record streamgages located within the watershed provided stage, discharge, specific conductance, and water-temperature data on an hourly basis. Water quality of the Silver River Watershed is typical of many streams in undeveloped areas of Upper Michigan. Concentrations of most analytes typically were low, although several exceeded applicable surface-water-quality standards. Seven samples had concentrations of copper that exceeded the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality standards for wildlife, and one sample had concentrations of cyanide that exceeded the same standards. Concentrations of total mercury at all eight sampling sites exceeded the Great Lakes Basin water-quality standard, but the ratio of methylmercury to total mercury was similar to the 5 to 10 percent found in most natural waters. Concentrations of arsenic and chromium in bed sediments were near the threshold-effect concentration. A qualitative ecological assessment of fishes and macroinvertebrates showed that intolerant salmonids were present at most sampled sites, and macroinvertebrate communities were indicative of near-excellent or excellent conditions at all eight sites. This baseline information will aid in an ongoing monitoring effort designed to protect the water resources of the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2019

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Fish Community Goals and Objectives for Lake Erie (Ryan et al. 2003). This report is responsive to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) obligations via Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Great Lakes Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies in 2019 were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations of this agreement were sustained investigations of native percids, forage (prey) fish populations, and Lake Trout. Our 2019 deepwater program operations began in April and concluded in December, and utilized trawl, gillnet, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 88 bottom trawls covering 65 ha of lake-bottom and catching 24,140 fish totaling 3,622 kg during three separate trawl surveys in the West and Central basins of Lake Erie. Overnight gillnet sets (n=44) for cold water species were performed at 42 unique locations in the West and East basins of Lake Erie. A total of 8.0 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 286 fish, 114 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. USGS hydroacoustic surveys in 2019 produced 240 km of transects, and lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=21) and water quality profiles (n=21) to populate a database maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), Ohio Division of Natural Resources (ODNR), Michigan Division of Natural Resources (MDNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of the Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) throughout all three Lake Erie sub-basins, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. In 2019, Lake Trout investigations included annual gill net surveys and acoustic telemetry of spawning migration and habitat use in coordination with OMNRF, NYSDEC, and PFBC. Results from Lake Trout investigations were reported in the Coldwater Task Group annual report to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and the CLC (Coldwater Task Group 2020). Likewise, interagency forage fish assessments conducted with hydroacoustics were summarized and reported in the Forage Task Group annual report (Forage Task Group 2020). This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2019 during June and September. The survey design provided temporal and spatial coverage that did not exist in the historic interagency trawl database, and thus complemented the August ODNR-OMNRF effort to reinforce stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in: total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity and community structure. Data from this effort can be explored interactively online (https://lebs.shinyapps.io/western-basin/), and are accessible for download (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LL6YOR, Keretz et al. 2020). Annual survey data are added to these sources as the data become available.

Lake Erie↗

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗