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Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Influence of lamprey rearing type on measures of performance

Declines in populations of Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) have raised concerns by the Columbia River tribes, who then initiated efforts to protect and restore them throughout their historical range. The Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) devised a restoration plan for lamprey in the Columbia River Basin which highlights the significance of lamprey to the tribes and recommends conservation actions. The plan calls for the development of artificial propagation (AP) protocols to provide fish for research (e.g., downstream passage studies) and restoration activities (e.g., supplemental releases into streams/rivers). The ideal outcome of these efforts would be cultured fish that are comparable to the corresponding wild fish, and efforts are underway to conduct such evaluations in larval and juvenile lamprey. The CRITFC lamprey restoration plan lists improving dam passage for juvenile and larval lamprey as a high priority action. Active telemetry techniques have not been an option until recently, when a prototype micro acoustic transmitter was designed for small, elongate fishes like lamprey and eels. Passage survival studies of juvenile and larval lamprey using acoustic telemetry are now possible but are challenged with the limited availability of research animals. The use of AP fish would facilitate passage survival studies, under the assumption that AP juvenile and larval lamprey perform and survive comparably to the wild lamprey they are intended to represent. The current study was enacted to add to the growing knowledge of how reliably AP lamprey can be used as surrogates for wild lamprey. Study objectives were to: 1) compare the swimming ability of AP and wild juvenile lamprey implanted with the prototype micro acoustic transmitter and 2) compare the performance of AP and wild larval lamprey by evaluating night activity levels, burrowing ability, and photokinetic response to tail illumination over a period of 5-months in a culture setting. Evaluations of juvenile lamprey sustained swimming performance did not reveal any differences between tagged and untagged lamprey of AP or wild origin. We standardized the stage of transformation for all tested lamprey to minimize variation. Our tests were constrained by limited access to juvenile lamprey, so significant differences between rearing types may have gone undetected. More information on how rearing type influences other lamprey life stages and swimming performance will add to the growing knowledge on how reliably AP lamprey can serve as surrogates for wild lamprey. We compared AP and wild larval lamprey using three performance metrics, both shortly after they arrived at our laboratory and through a 5-month study period. Within the AP and wild test groups, we divided lamprey into small (30-70 mm total length) and large (80-120 mm total length) size categories, forming four test groups. Each of the test groups were comprised of 25 lamprey and were held in separate tanks. These tanks were the source of test fish for all performance testing. Our results for 2 of 3 of the performance metrics showed no differences between rearing types, and we found limited evidence to suggest that duration in a culture setting changed performance. Night activity levels were low for all test groups. Burrowing times were significantly different by rearing type, with wild lamprey burrowing faster than AP lamprey, in both the small and large size categories. These significant differences in rearing type could be a concern for use of AP lamprey for restoration or research needs, but they may not be biologically meaningful. Both AP and wild lamprey completed burrowing in median times of less than 1 min, which minimizes concerns about predation risk. Additional opportunities to evaluate burrowing performance of AP and wild larval lamprey would be helpful to inform future planned uses of AP lamprey. Finally, our evaluations of photokinetic response to tail illumination revealed similar proportions of AP and wild larvae moving in response to illumination, and no significant differences in response time between the groups. The wild lamprey, however, consistently had faster (but not significantly) response times than AP fish. This finding supports the significantly faster burrowing times we observed for wild lamprey compared to AP fish. Taken together, these lines of evidence raise some concerns for the ability of AP lamprey to serve as defensible surrogates for wild lamprey because the ability to reliably burrow is so critical for larvae. Burrowing performance and photokinetic response to tail illumination were both easy to measure and will be valuable metrics for evaluating rearing types in future studies.

Report↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Fort Ross, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Fort Ross map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of Sonoma County, about 90 km north of San Francisco and 60 km south of Point Arena. The onshore part of the map area is largely undeveloped, used primarily for grazing and recreation; the small town of Jenner (population, 136), located at the mouth of the Russian River, is the largest cultural center. The coast and shoreline are rugged and scenic, characterized by rocky promontories, kelp-rich coves, and nearshore rocks and sea stacks. U.S. Highway 1 extends along the coast through the map area, crossing the Russian River and passing through Sonoma Coast State Park and Fort Ross State Historic Park. The Offshore of Fort Ross map area is cut by the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, the right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. The fault intersects the shoreline a few kilometers south of Fort Ross at Timber Gulch, and it juxtaposes Jurassic, Cretaceous, Paleocene, and Eocene rocks of the Franciscan Complex to the northeast and Tertiary sedimentary rocks to the southwest. In this area, the San Andreas Fault has an estimated slip rate of 17 to 24 mm/yr. The devastating great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8) is thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault offshore of San Francisco, about 90 km to the south, with the rupture extending northward through the Offshore of Fort Ross map area to the south flank of Cape Mendocino. Approximately 3.6 m of lateral offset occurred at Timber Gulch during this event. The San Andreas Fault has an important influence on coastal geomorphology. The coastline in the northern part of the map area, southwest of the onshore San Andreas Fault, is characterized by steep shoreline bluffs and as many as four uplifted, relatively flat marine terraces that range in elevation from about 15 to 100 m. Northeast of the San Andreas Fault, about 12 km of coastline is marked by steep, landslide-prone cliffs that commonly are 200 to 300 m high. The mouth of the Russian River and its estuary cut through the steep coastal topography in the southern part of the Offshore of Fort Ross map area. The Russian River drains a large watershed (3,470 km 2 ), and it has an annual discharge of about 2 km 3 (1,600,000 acre-feet) and an annual sediment load of about 900,000 metric tons. The map area is part of the Russian River littoral cell, in which the predominant longshore drift is to the south. Small pocket beaches are most common along the shoreline, but longer linear beaches are present near the mouth of the Russian River. The seafloor in the north half of the map area is characterized by rocky outcrops of Tertiary sedimentary rocks. The rugged nearshore zone and the inner shelf area (to water depths of about 50 m) typically slopes gently seaward, whereas the smooth midshelf area within California’s State Waters (about 50 to 85 m deep) is relatively flat. In contrast, the nearshore to midshelf area in the south half of the map area, which lies directly offshore of the mouth of the Russian River, has a more uniform, relatively flat slope. Shallow-marine and shelf sediments were deposited in the last about 21,000 years during the sea-level rise that followed the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Sea level was about 125 m lower than present during the LGM, at which time the entire Offshore of Fort Ross map area was emergent and the shoreline was about 20 km west of its present location. Circulation over the continental shelf in the map area (and in the broader northern California region) is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. The current flow generally is southeastward during the spring and summer; however, during the fall and winter, the otherwise persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent, causing the California Current to move farther offshore and the Davidson Current, a weaker, northward-flowing countercurrent, to become active. Throughout the year, this part of the northern California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes: the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months (typically November through March). During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, whereas local wind waves are most common from October to April. Potential marine benthic habitat types in the Offshore of Fort Ross map area include unconsolidated continental-shelf sediments, mixed continental-shelf substrate, and hard continental-shelf substrate. Rocky shelf outcrops and rubble are considered the primary habitat type for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species.

California↗

Mortality, movement and behaviour of native mussels during a planned water-level drawdown in the Upper Mississippi River

Managers in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) are using reductions in the River's water levels during summer to mimic historical water regimes and rehabilitate habitats for vegetation and other species. Concerns for the unintended effects of these actions on mussel populations threatened to halt these projects. Our objective was to characterise the survival and movement of two mussel species in the UMR associated with a water level drawdown. During 2009 (no drawdown) and 2010 (0.3 m summer drawdown), we glued passive integrated transponder tags to 10 Amblema plicata and 10 Lampsilis cardium at each of 11 sites. Five sites were in shallow areas expected to be minimally affected by the drawdown (reference sites), and six sites were in shallow areas expected to be directly affected by the drawdown (treatment sites). About equal numbers of sites within both the reference and treatment areas had low and high slopes. Tagged mussels were randomly allocated across sites (within years). Recovery of tagged mussels was >88% in 2009 and 2010. Mortality was similar and low (mean, c . 5% in both species) among reference sites but was variable and relatively high (means, c . 27% in L. cardium and c . 52% in A. plicata ) among treatment sites; variation in mortality among treatment sites appeared related to slope. The study found evidence of drawdown associations with net horizontal movements in A. plicata but not L. cardium . Weekly horizontal movements in both species were significantly correlated with changes in water elevation. We observed significant slope associations related to the drawdown for mortality and net horizontal movement in A. plicata . There were strong species-specific differences in the effects of the drawdown on mortality, vertical movement and horizontal movement. These results suggest that A. plicata responded to the drawdown by vertical movement into the substratum, whereas L. cardium responded by horizontal movement to deeper water. No directionality of movement was observed in either species. Collectively, these data suggest that drawdowns can influence the mortality, movement and behaviour of mussels in the UMR. However, more information on spatial and temporal distributions of mussels is needed to better understand the magnitude of these effects. Results from this study are being used by resource managers to better evaluate the effects of this management tool on native mussel assemblages.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Aquatic assessment of the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site, Vershire, Vermont

The Ely Mine, which operated from 1821 to 1905, and its area of downstream impact constitute the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site. The site was placed on the National Priorities List in 2001. The mine comprises underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, roast beds associated with the smelting operation, and slag piles resulting from the smelting. The mine site is drained by Ely Brook, which includes several tributaries, one of which drains a series of six ponds. Ely Brook empties into Schoolhouse Brook, which flows 3.3 kilometers and joins the Ompompanoosuc River. The aquatic ecosystem at the site was assessed using a variety of approaches that investigated surface-water quality, sediment quality, and various ecological indicators of stream-ecosystem health. The degradation of surface-water quality is dominated by copper with localized effects caused by iron, aluminum, cadmium, and zinc. Chronic water-quality criteria for copper are exceeded in the surface water of four of the six ponds on the Ely Brook tributary, and all of Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook, and of the Ompompanoosuc River downstream of the confluence with Schoolhouse Brook. Comparison of hardness-based and Biotic Ligand Model-based water-quality criteria for copper yields similar results with respect to extent of impairment. However, the Biotic Ligand Model criteria are mostly lower than the hardness-based criteria and thus suggest a greater degree of impairment, particularly in the Ely Brook watershed, where dissolved organic carbon concentrations and pH values are lower. Surface-water toxicity testing correlates strongly with the extent of impact. Likewise, riffle-habitat benthic invertebrate richness and abundance data support these results through the stream environment. Similarly, the index of biotic integrity for the fish community in Schoolhouse Brook and the Ompompanoosuc River document degraded habitats throughout Schoolhouse Brook from Ely Brook down to the Ompompanoosuc River. The sediment environment shows similar extents of impairment also dominated by copper, although localized degradation due to chromium, nickel, lead, and zinc was documented on the basis of probable effects concentrations. In contrast, equilibrium-partitioning sediment benchmarks indicate no toxic effects would be expected in sediments at the reference sites, and uncertain toxic effects throughout Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook, except for the reference sites and site EB-600M. The results for site EB-600M indicate predicted toxic effects. Acute toxicity testing of in situ pore waters using Hyalella azteca indicates severe impacts in Ely Brook reaching 100 percent lethality at site EB-90M. Acute toxicity testing of in situ pore waters using Chironomus dilutus shows similar, but not as severe, toxicity. Neither set of in situ pore-water toxicity tests showed significant impairment in Schoolhouse Brook or the Ompompanoosuc River. Chronic sediment toxicity testing using Hyalella azteca indicated significant toxicity in Ely Brook, except at site EB-90M, and in Schoolhouse Brook. The low toxicity of EB-90M may be a reflection of the low lability of copper in that sediment as indicated by a low proportion of extractable copper (1.1 percent). Depositional-targeted habitat invertebrate richness and abundance data support these conclusions for the entire watershed, as do the index of biotic integrity data from the fish community. The information was used to develop an overall assessment of the impact on the aquatic system that appears to be a result of the acid rock drainage at the Ely Mine. More than 700 meters of Ely Brook, including two of the six ponds, were found to be severely impacted, on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments. The reference location was of good quality based on the water quality and biological assessment. More than 3,125 meters of Schoolhouse Brook are also severely impacted, on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments. The biological community begins to recover near the confluence with the Ompompanoosuc River. The evidence is less conclusive regarding the Ompompanoosuc River. The sediment data suggest that the sediments could be a source of toxicity in Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook. The surface-water assessment is consistent with the outcome of a surface-water toxicity testing program performed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook and a surface-water toxicity testing program and in situ amphibian testing program for the ponds.

Vermont↗

Resurvey of quality of surface water and bottom material of the Barataria Preserve of Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve, Louisiana, 1999-2000

The quality of water and bottom material in the Barataria Preserve of Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve, Louisiana, was surveyed from March 1999 to May 2000. Organochlorine, chlorophenoxy acid, and organophosphorus pesticides; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's); and trace elements were analyzed in surface water and bottom material from three sites previously sampled in a 1981-82 survey. Surface water at six sites was sampled and analyzed for selected nutrients and major inorganic ions based on their importance to human health, the health of the marshes of the Barataria Preserve, or their usefulness in tracking the circulation of Mississippi River water in the Barataria Preserve. Southern Louisiana was in a moderate to severe drought during most of the sampling period, which elevated salinity in the Barataria Preserve for at least 8 months. Specific conductance values were less than 3,000 µS/cm (microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius) in surface water throughout the Barataria Preserve from March through September 1999. Specific conductance values increased over the next 2 months and then remained between 5,000 and 6,000 µS/cm. The herbicide 2,4-D was detected in water at the two sites sampled in August 1999 but not at any site during the two other sampling times. Iron, manganese, and the trace elements copper, nickel, and zinc were detected in dissolved and whole-water samples at all three sites. Nitrite+ nitrate, as nitrogen, concentrations ranged from less than 0.002 to 0.19 mg/L (milligrams per liter). Ammonia, as nitrogen, concentrations ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.16 mg/L. Orthophosphate, as phosphorus, concentrations ranged from less than 0.002 to 0.14 mg/L. Calcium, magnesium, potassium, sulfate, and chloride concentrations in surface water were elevated due to the marine influence on the composition of surface water in the Barataria Preserve during the sampling period. Sulfate and chloride concentrations reached 379 and 2,830 mg/L, respectively. Polychlorinated biphenyls, chlordane, and DDT were detected in bottom material. Trace elements were detected in bottom material at all three of the sampled sites. Arsenic concentrations ranged from 4 to 9 µg/g (micrograms per gram) and lead concentrations from 20 to 31 µg/g. Mercury concentrations also were above laboratory reporting levels (LRL's) for bottom material at all three sites. The herbicide 2,4-D was detected in surface water during both surveys. Other organic compounds were not detected in surface water. Mercury and chromium were detected in surface water at all three sites during the 1981-82 survey but were below LRL?s during the 1999-2000 survey. Changes in chemical characteristics of bottom material occurred during the years between the 1981-82 and 1999-2000 surveys. DDT decreased in the bottom material at Bayou Segnette near Barataria. DDE, a degradation product, increased at this site, indicating that over time, DDT concentrations are decreasing in bottom material. PCB's were present in similar concentrations (Bayou Segnette near Barataria) or increased (Bayou Segnette 4.6 miles below Westwego) from 1981-82 to 1999-2000. Cadmium concentrations consistently decreased by half or more at all three sites from 1981-82 to 1999-2000. Mercury concentrations were consistently lower at all three sites in the 1999-2000 survey, but the differences from the 1981-82 survey were small. Chromium concentrations increased at two of the three sites from 1981-82 to the present survey. At the third site, no chromium value was available for the earlier survey. Concentrations of copper and nickel increased in bottom material at the two sites on Bayou Segnette, but decreased at Kenta Canal northwest of Westwego. Probable Effects Levels (PEL's) and Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines (ISQG's) concentrations, as tabulated by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the of the Environment, were used to assess the probability of biological impairment in the Barataria Preserve. PEL’s are concentrations of a chemical at or above which some biological impairment is likely. ISQG concentrations are those at or below which biological impairment is unlikely. Concentrations of 2,4-D and trace elements, when detected in surface water, were substantially lower than levels at which biological impairment could be expected. Concentrations of organic compounds in bottom material were at most less than 25 percent of PEL’s, and usually much lower. Arsenic, cadmium, copper, and lead concentrations in bottom material were generally slightly above or lower than ISQG concentrations in both surveys, although arsenic was as high as 53 percent of PEL’s at one site in the 1999-2000 survey. All other trace elements in bottom material were present in concentrations lower than ISQG concentrations.

Louisiana↗

Cassin's Sparrow (Aimophila cassinii) status assessment and conservation plan

Executive Summary Cassin’s Sparrow ( Aimophila cassinii ) is a grassland species endemic to the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Its behavior and ecology have been shaped by these arid ecosystems and the health of its populations is dependent on the availability of grasslands that contain a shrub component. Populations of many grassland birds have experienced dramatic declines due to the loss and deterioration of grassland habitats, and there has been concern about the trends in Cassin’s Sparrow populations. Without better information about population trends, ecology, and effects of management activities, and without a stronger emphasis on grassland management, Cassin’s Sparrows and other grassland species may continue to experience declines. Little information exists about historic Cassin’s Sparrow population levels, and current population estimates for states in the breeding range are unknown. Significant survey-wide declines are documented by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1966 and 1996. However, closer examination of these data suggest that the survey-wide trends are driven by population declines in the Edwards Plateau and South Texas Brushlands in Texas. No other areas within the core of its range or on the periphery show consistent, significant trends. In fact, there is consensus that in the core of its range in New Mexico Cassin’s Sparrow remains the most abundant breeding bird in grasslands with a shrub component. Understanding of population patterns in this species is complicated by large yearly fluctuations in distribution and numbers at any particular location, apparently in response to precipitation. This is particularly obvious in the periphery of its range. These dramatic fluctuations have hampered a clear assessment of population status, and our understanding has been confounded by the fact that the timing of BBS data collection does not always coincide with the peak breeding season of this species. The lack of information about the Cassin’s Sparrow’s status, ecology, and response to management activities, and the apparent declines indicated by BBS data, have been cause for concern. Habitat disturbance and degradation, mainly due to grazing and rangeland management practices such as shrub control, fire management, and planting of exotics, pose threats to Cassin’s Sparrow populations, as does habitat conversion through suburban development and agriculture. There is evidence that heavy grazing negatively affects populations, but the information is primarily available from the southwestern portion of its range (Arizona) and may not be applicable throughout the Cassin’s Sparrow’s entire range. Any management practice that results in complete removal of the shrub component, or loss of grass cover and an increase in shrub density beyond a threshold preferred by the species, also poses a threat. Lack of standardized or coordinated studies of Cassin’s Sparrow ecology and response to management practices in different geographic portions of its range has made it difficult to assess its status and make specific management recommendations. Limited data are available from the wintering grounds, and from its range (both breeding and wintering) in Mexico. The greatest needs are for determining of the causes of significant declines where they occur, determining of the effects of various management activities on Cassin’s Sparrow throughout its range, improved assessments of population and trends, and a better understanding of the annual population and distribution dynamics of this species, which shows such dramatic annual distributional fluctuations.

Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma,Texas, New Mex↗

Aquatic assessment of the Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site, Corinth, Vermont

The Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site in Corinth, Orange County, Vermont, includes the Eureka, Union, and Smith mines along with areas of downstream aquatic ecosystem impairment. The site was placed on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) National Priorities List in 2004. The mines, which operated from about 1847 to 1919, contain underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, and some flotation tailings. The mine site is drained to the northeast by Pike Hill Brook, which includes several wetland areas, and to the southeast by an unnamed tributary that flows to the south and enters Cookville Brook. Both brooks eventually drain into the Waits River, which flows into the Connecticut River. The aquatic ecosystem at the site was assessed using a variety of approaches that investigated surface-water quality, sediment quality, and various ecological indicators of stream-ecosystem health. The degradation of surface-water quality is caused by elevated concentrations of copper, and to a lesser extent cadmium, with localized effects caused by aluminum, iron, and zinc. Copper concentrations in surface waters reached or exceeded the USEPA national recommended chronic water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life in all of the Pike Hill Brook sampling locations except for the location farthest downstream, in half of the locations sampled in the tributary to Cookville Brook, and in about half of the locations in one wetland area located in Pike Hill Brook. Most of these same locations also contained concentrations of cadmium that exceeded the chronic water-quality criteria. In contrast, surface waters at background sampling locations were below these criteria for copper and cadmium. Comparison of hardness-based and Biotic Ligand Model (BLM)-based criteria for copper yields similar results with respect to the extent or number of stations impaired for surface waters in the affected area. However, the BLM-based criteria are commonly lower values than the hardness-based criteria and thus suggest a greater degree or magnitude of impairment at the sampling locations. The riffle-habitat benthic invertebrate richness and abundance data correlate strongly with the extent of impact based on water quality for both brooks. Similarly, the fish community assessments document degraded conditions throughout most of Pike Hill Brook, whereas the data for the tributary to Cookville Brook suggest less degradation to this brook. The sediment environment shows similar extents of impairment to the surface-water environment, with most sampling locations in Pike Hill Brook, including the wetland areas, and the tributary to Cookville Brook affected. Sediment impairment is caused by elevated copper concentrations, although localized degradation due to elevated cadmium and zinc concentrations was documented on the basis of exceedances of probable effects concentrations (PECs). In contrast to impairment determined by exceedances of PECs, equilibrium-partitioning sediment benchmarks (based on simultaneously extracted metals, acid volatile sulfides, and total organic carbon) predict no toxic effects in sediments at the background locations and uncertain toxic effects throughout Pike Hill Brook and the tributary to Cookville Brook, with the exception of the most downstream Cookville Brook location, which indicated no toxic effects. Acute laboratory toxicity testing using the amphipod Hyalella azteca and the midge Chironomus dilutus on pore waters extracted from sediment in situ indicate impairment (based on tests with H. azteca ) at only one location in Pike Hill Brook and no impairment in the tributary to Cookville Brook. Chronic laboratory sediment toxicity testing using H. azteca and C. dilutus indicated toxicity in Pike Hill Brook at several locations in the lower reach and two locations in the tributary to Cookville Brook. Toxicity was not indicated for either species in sediment from the most acidic metal-rich location, likely due to the low lability of copper in that sediment, as indicated by a low proportion of extractable copper (simultaneously extracted metal (SEM) copper only 5 percent of total copper) and due to the flushing of acidic metal-rich pore water from experimental chambers as overlying test water was introduced before and replaced periodically during the toxicity tests. Depositional habitat invertebrate richness and abundance data generally agreed with the results of toxicity tests and with the extent of impact in the watersheds on the basis of sediment and pore waters. The information was used to develop an overall assessment of the impact of mine drainage on the aquatic system downstream from the Pike Hill copper mines. Most of Pike Hill Brook, including several wetland areas that are all downstream from the Eureka and Union mines, was found to be impaired on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments of fish or benthic invertebrate communities. In contrast, only one location in the tributary to Cookville Brook, downstream from the Smith mine, is definitively impaired. The biological community begins to recover at the most downstream locations in both brooks due to natural attenuation from mixing with unimpaired streams. On the basis of water quality and biological assessment, the reference locations were of good quality. The sediment toxicity, chemistry, and aquatic community survey data suggest that the sediments could be a source of toxicity in Pike Hill Brook and the tributary to Cookville Brook. On the basis of water quality, sediment quality, and biologic communities, the impacts of mine drainage on the aquatic ecosystem health of the watersheds in the study area are generally consistent with the toxicity suggested from laboratory toxicity testing on pore water and sediments.

Vermont↗

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

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