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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Change-point models for identifying behavioral transitions in wild animals

Animal behavior can be difficult, time-consuming, and costly to observe in the field directly. Innovative modeling methods, such as hidden Markov models (HMMs), allow researchers to infer unobserved animal behaviors from movement data, and implementations often assume that transitions between states occur multiple times. However, some behavioral shifts of interest, such as parturition, migration initiation, and juvenile dispersal, may only occur once during an observation period, and HMMs may not be the best approach to identify these changes. We present two change-point models for identifying single transitions in movement behavior: a location-based change-point model and a movement metric-based change-point model. We first conducted a simulation study to determine the ability of these models to detect a behavioral transition given different amounts of data and the degree of behavioral shifts. We then applied our models to two ungulate species in central Pennsylvania that were fitted with global positioning system collars and vaginal implant transmitters to test hypotheses related to parturition behavior. We fit these models in a Bayesian framework and directly compared the ability of each model to describe the parturition behavior across species. Our simulation study demonstrated that successful change point estimation using either model was possible given at least 12 h of post-change observations and 15 min fix interval. However, our models received mixed support among deer and elk in Pennsylvania due to behavioral variation between species and among individuals. Our results demonstrate that when the behavior follows the dynamics proposed by the two models, researchers can identify the timing of a behavioral change. Although we refer to detecting parturition events, our results can be applied to any behavior that results in a single change in time.

Movement Ecology↗
USGS2015

Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

Increased land use by polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) due to climate-change-induced reduction of their sea-ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea-ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutritional needs of polar bears as well as the physiological and environmental constraints that shape their use of terrestrial ecosystems. Only small numbers of polar bears have been documented consuming terrestrial foods even in modest quantities. Over much of the polar bear's range, limited terrestrial food availability supports only low densities of much smaller, resident brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), which use low-quality resources more efficiently and may compete with polar bears in these areas. Where consumption of terrestrial foods has been documented, polar bear body condition and survival rates have declined even as land use has increased. Thus far, observed consumption of terrestrial food by polar bears has been insufficient to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities but can have ecological consequences for other species. Warming-induced loss of sea ice remains the primary threat faced by polar bears.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2018

Parasitism and the biodiversity-functioning relationship

Biodiversity affects ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may decrease or increase parasitism. Parasites impair individual hosts and affect their role in the ecosystem. Parasitism, in common with competition, facilitation, and predation, could regulate BD-EF relationships. Parasitism affects host phenotypes, including changes to host morphology, behavior, and physiology, which might increase intra- and interspecific functional diversity. The effects of parasitism on host abundance and phenotypes, and on interactions between hosts and the remaining community, all have potential to alter community structure and BD-EF relationships. Global change could facilitate the spread of invasive parasites, and alter the existing dynamics between parasites, communities, and ecosystems. Species interactions can influence ecosystem functioning by enhancing or suppressing the activities of species that drive ecosystem processes, or by causing changes in biodiversity. However, one important class of species interactions – parasitism – has been little considered in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BD-EF) research. Parasites might increase or decrease ecosystem processes by reducing host abundance. Parasites could also increase trait diversity by suppressing dominant species or by increasing within-host trait diversity. These different mechanisms by which parasites might affect ecosystem function pose challenges in predicting their net effects. Nonetheless, given the ubiquity of parasites, we propose that parasite–host interactions should be incorporated into the BD-EF framework.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Refuge identification as a climate adaptation strategy to promote fish persistence during drought

Climate change is leading to global increases in extreme events, such as drought, that threaten the persistence of freshwater biodiversity. Identification and management of drought refuges, areas that promote resistance and resilience to drought, will be critical for preserving and recovering aquatic biodiversity in the face of climate change and increasing human water use. Although several reviews have addressed the effects of droughts and highlighted the role of refuges, a need remains on how to identify functional refuges that can be used in a drought management framework to support fish assemblages. We synthesize literature on drought refuges and propose a framework to identify and manage functional refuges that incorporate species physiological tolerances, behaviours and life-history strategies. Stream pools, perennial reaches and off-channel habitat were identified as important drought refuges for fish. The ability of refuges to improve species resistance and resilience to drought requires careful consideration of the biology of the target species and targeted management to promote persistence, quality and connectivity of refuges. Case studies illustrate that management of drought refuges can be challenging because of competing demands for water, incomplete knowledge of ecological requirements for target species and the increasing occurrence of multi-year droughts. Climate adaptation is increasingly important, and drought refuges can increase fish resistance and resilience to climate-related drought across the riverscape.

Fish and Fisheries↗
USGS2002

Rocky Mountain futures: An ecological perspective

The Rocky Mountain West is largely arid and steep, with ecological scars from past human use visible for hundreds of years. Just how damaging were the past 150 years of activity? How do current rates of disturbance compare with past mining, grazing, and water diversion activities? In the face of constant change, what constitutes a "natural" ecosystem? And can a high quality of life be achieved for both human and natural communities in this region. Rocky Mountain Futures presents a comprehensive and wide-ranging examination of the ecological consequences of past, current, and future human activities in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States and Canada. The book brings together 32 leading ecologists, geographers, and other scientists and researchers to present an objective assessment of the cumulative effects of human activity on the region's ecological health and to consider changes wrought by past human use. This combined view of past and present reveals where Rocky Mountain ecosystems are heading, and the authors project what the future holds based upon current economic and social trends and the patterns that emerge from them. The book: examines the biogeographic and paleoenvironmental setting and historical climate that have shaped Rocky Mountain ecosystems traces the direct human influences on landscapes and ecosystems over the past 150 years explores the cumulative effects of past, present, and projected future human activities on tundra, subalpine and montane forests, valleys, grasslands, and waters offers case studies that illustrate specific examples of human influence and current efforts to restore the environment Case studies focus on northern New Mexico; Summit County, Colorado; Flathead Valley, Montana; and Alberta, Canada. Among the contributors are Craig D. Allen, N. Thompson Hobbs, Linda L. Joyce, Robert E. Keane, David Schindler, Timothy R. Seastedt, David Theobald, Diana Tomback, William Travis, Cathy Whitlock, and Jack Stanford. The United Nations has proclaimed 2002 as the International Year of Mountains to increase international awareness of the global importance of mountain ecosystems. The case-based multidisciplinary approach of this book constitutes an important new model for understanding the implications of land-use practices and economic activity on mountains, and will serve a vital role in improving decisionmaking both in the Rocky Mountains and in other parts of the world that face similar challenges.

Book↗
USGS2021

A seasonally dynamic model of light at the stream surface

Light is a primary constraint on primary production and drives many ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet light regimes have received considerably less attention than other factors of the stream environment, such as hydrology or nutrient cycling. Light received by streams can be highly heterogeneous in both space and time resulting from changes in topography, channel characteristics, and riparian vegetation. Both the structure and phenology of riparian vegetation can be important determinants of the seasonality and magnitude of light reaching the stream surface, particularly in smaller forested streams. Despite the importance of riparian phenology on temporal patterns of stream light availability, existing models do not account for the seasonal dynamics of canopies. We developed a dynamic, biophysically based model ( StreamLight ) that incorporates canopy structure and phenology to predict light reaching the stream surface. We compared StreamLight to an existing model at 21 sites across the USA and found that, across sites, our biophysically based model produced light estimates that were more strongly correlated to observations and reduced the magnitude of errors in comparison to the existing model, particularly for streams that were relatively narrow compared to the height of riparian vegetation. Because smaller streams represent most global stream length, we expect that, in many smaller forested streams, the inclusion of canopy structure and phenology will enhance our ability to predict light regimes. We also used model simulations to examine the importance of controls on stream light environments and found that channel width was the strongest control on light environments. StreamLight represents an important incremental step forward in developing mechanistic models of river network productivity and in linking shifts in terrestrial vegetation structure and phenology to aquatic ecosystem productivity and thermal regimes.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2013

Convergent responses of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption to nitrogen inputs in a semiarid grassland

Human activities have significantly altered nitrogen (N) availability in most terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences for community composition and ecosystem functioning. Although studies of how changes in N availability affect biodiversity and community composition are relatively common, much less remains known about the effects of N inputs on the coupled biogeochemical cycling of N and phosphorus (P), and still fewer data exist regarding how increased N inputs affect the internal cycling of these two elements in plants. Nutrient resorption is an important driver of plant nutrient economies and of the quality of litter plants produce. Accordingly, resorption patterns have marked ecological implications for plant population and community fitness, as well as for ecosystem nutrient cycling. In a semiarid grassland in northern China, we studied the effects of a wide range of N inputs on foliar nutrient resorption of two dominant grasses, Leymus chinensis and Stipa grandis . After 4 years of treatments, N and P availability in soil and N and P concentrations in green and senesced grass leaves increased with increasing rates of N addition. Foliar N and P resorption significantly decreased along the N addition gradient, implying a resorption-mediated, positive plant–soil feedback induced by N inputs. Furthermore, N : P resorption ratios were negatively correlated with the rates of N addition, indicating the sensitivity of plant N and P stoichiometry to N inputs. Taken together, the results demonstrate that N additions accelerate ecosystem uptake and turnover of both N and P in the temperate steppe and that N and P cycles are coupled in dynamic ways. The convergence of N and P resorption in response to N inputs emphasizes the importance of nutrient resorption as a pathway by which plants and ecosystems adjust in the face of increasing N availability.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2022

Ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico: Drivers, impacts, and unknowns

Ocean acidification (OA) has resulted in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry, which can disturb marine organisms and ecosystems. Despite its extensively populated coastline, many marine-dependent communities, and valuable economies, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remains a relatively understudied region with respect to acidification. In general, the warm waters of the GOM are better buffered from acidification compared to higher latitude seas, yet long-term acidification has been documented in several GOM regions. OA within the GOM is recognized as spatially variable, particularly within the coastal zone where numerous physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to carbonate chemistry dynamics. The historical progression of OA within the entire GOM is difficult to assess because only a few dedicated long-term monitoring sites have recently been established, and full-water column observations are limited. However, environmental drivers on smaller scales that affect GOM acidification were found to include freshwater, nutrient, and carbonate discharge from large rivers; ocean warming, circulation and residence times; and episodic extreme weather events. GOM marine ecosystems provide essential services, including coastline protection and carbon dioxide removal, and habitats for many marine species that are economically and ecologically important. However, organismal and ecosystem responses to OA are not well constrained for the GOM due to a lack of studies examining the specific effects of OA on regionally relevant species under contemporary and projected conditions. Tackling the vast number of remaining scientific unknowns in this region can be best coordinated through regional capacity networks, such as the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN), working to achieve a system-wide understanding of Gulf OA and its impacts. Here we synthesize the current peer-reviewed literature on GOM acidification across the ocean-estuarine continuum and identify critical knowledge, research, and monitoring gaps that require future attention.

Progress in Oceanography↗
USGS2026

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗
USGS2020

Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States

Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) are a native anadromous species that, like salmon, historically returned to spawn in large numbers in watersheds along the west coast of the United States (U.S.). Lamprey play a vital role in river ecosystems and are one of the oldest vertebrates that have persisted over time likely influencing the evolution of many aquatic species. Pacific Lamprey have declined in abundance and are restricted in distribution throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. A key uncertainty influencing Pacific Lamprey status is the impact of climate change. We modified the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to accommodate climate predictions from the International Panel on Climate Change. Using downscaled information, we characterized changes in 15 rivers occupied by Pacific Lamprey in the western U.S. We evaluated this risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for two time periods (mid-century 2040–2069 and end-century 2070–2099). The CCVI scores generally increased when going from RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5 in three Global Climate Models for both mid-century and end-century, which our analyses forecasts degraded stream temperature and hydrologic conditions under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The geographically assessed results suggest that climate change impacts to Pacific Lamprey vulnerability are magnified in highly altered rivers. If we continue to observe greenhouse gas emission levels associated with the RCP 8.5, Pacific Lamprey will be at greater risk to climate change impacts. In order to mitigate the risk from climate change toward the end of the century, additional actions will need to be prioritized to rapidly reduce the impact of these threats such as increasing flow, creating backwater habitat, restoring riparian vegetation and reducing stream disturbances. The findings revealed the patterns of vulnerability for Pacific Lamprey across their U.S. range are informative for prioritizing river restoration actions when paired with regional implementation plans.

California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗
USGS2023

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Mountain sentinels in a changing world: Review and conservation implications of weather and climate effects on mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus)

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in high-elevation alpine and mountain ecosystems. Cold-adapted, mountain species are at risk due to forecasted change and knowledge is needed to respond to current and future conservation challenges. Mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) are an iconic species of North American mountain cultures and landscapes, and due to specialized adaptations for life in cold, mountainous environments they are particularly sensitive to changes in weather and climate. As sentinels of change in alpine ecosystems, the study of mountain goats offers insight into the ecological effects and conservation challenges associated with climate change in these sensitive and biodiverse environments. Here, we synthesize existing knowledge about how climate change is expected to influence environmental conditions experienced by mountain goats and associated mechanistic changes to behavior, nutritional ecology, demography, health, and interspecific interactions. In many instances, climate change effects are likely to be negative and additive to existing threats (such as human disturbance, hunting, disease, predation) though benefits are expected in some cases. Changes in climate and mountain environments will necessitate re-examination and modification of population monitoring, management, and conservation strategies. Specifically, spatiotemporal (and other) aspects of monitoring and management may need to be adjusted to accommodate emerging and novel conservation challenges. Yet, key data and knowledge gaps remain and should be addressed to advance conservation and decision-making capabilities. For mountain goats and similarly climate-sensitive alpine herbivores, effective conservation will ultimately benefit from collaborations among diverse networks guided by well-planned, strategic visions focused on common ground – namely the resiliency and persistence of culturally and ecologically significant mountain species and the alpine environment they inhabit.

Alaska, Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana,↗
USGS2013

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2006

Response of Everglades tree islands to environmental change

Tree islands are centers of biodiversity within the Florida Everglades, USA, but the factors controlling their distribution, formation, and development are poorly understood. We use pollen assemblages from tree islands throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem to reconstruct the timing of tree island formation, patterns of development, and response to specific climatic and environmental stressors. These data indicate that fixed (teardrop-shaped) and strand tree islands developed well before substantial human alteration of the system, with initial tree island vegetation in place between 3500 and 500 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), depending on the location in the Everglades wetland. Tree island development appears to have been triggered by regional- to global-scale climatic events at 2800 cal yr BP, 1600–1500 cal yr BP, 1200–1000 cal yr BP (early Medieval Warm Period), and 500–200 cal yr BP (Little Ice Age). These periods correspond to drought intervals documented in Central and South America and periods of southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The records indicate a coherence of climate patterns in both subtropical North America and the Northern Hemisphere Neotropics. Water management practices of the 20th century altered plant communities and size of tree islands throughout the Everglades. Responses range from loss of tree islands due to artificially long hydroperiods and deep water to expansion of tree islands after flow reductions. These data provide evidence for the rapidity of tree island response to specific hydrologic change and facilitate prediction of the response to future changes associated with Everglades restoration plans.

Florida↗
USGS2004

Plant functional traits in relation to fire in crown-fire ecosystems

Disturbance is a dominant factor in many ecosystems, and the disturbance regime is likely to change over the next decades in response to land-use changes and global warming. We assume that predictions of vegetation dynamics can be made on the basis of a set of life-history traits that characterize the response of a species to disturbance. For crown-fire ecosystems, the main plant traits related to postfire persistence are the ability to resprout (persistence of individuals) and the ability to retain a persistent seed bank (persistence of populations). In this context, we asked (1) to what extent do different life-history traits co-occur with the ability to resprout and/or the ability to retain a persistent seed bank among differing ecosystems and (2) to what extent do combinations of fire-related traits (fire syndromes) change in a fire regime gradient? We explored these questions by reviewing the literature and analyzing databases compiled from different crown-fire ecosystems (mainly eastern Australia, California, and the Mediterranean basin). The review suggests that the pattern of correlation between the two basic postfire persistent traits and other plant traits varies between continents and ecosystems. From these results we predict, for instance, that not all resprouters respond in a similar way everywhere because the associated plant traits of resprouter species vary in different places. Thus, attempts to generalize predictions on the basis of the resprouting capacity may have limited power at a global scale. An example is presented for Australian heathlands. Considering the combination of persistence at individual (resprouting) and at population (seed bank) level, the predictive power at local scale was significantly increased.

Ecology↗
USGS2012

Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (rangeland) science relevant?

Rapidly increasing demand for food, fiber, and fuel together with new technologies and the mobility of global capital are driving revolutionary changes in land use throughout the world. Efforts to increase land productivity include conversion of millions of hectares of rangelands to crop production, including many marginal lands with low resistance and resilience to degradation. Sustaining the productivity of these lands requires careful land use planning and innovative management systems. Historically, this responsibility has been left to agronomists and others with expertise in crop production. In this article, we argue that the revolutionary land use changes necessary to support national and global food security potentially make rangeland science more relevant now than ever. Maintaining and increasing relevance will require a revolutionary change in range science from a discipline that focuses on a particular land use or land cover to one that addresses the challenge of managing all lands that, at one time, were considered to be marginal for crop production. We propose four strategies to increase the relevance of rangeland science to global land management: 1) expand our awareness and understanding of local to global economic, social, and technological trends in order to anticipate and identify drivers and patterns of conversion; 2) emphasize empirical studies and modeling that anticipate the biophysical (ecosystem services) and societal consequences of large-scale changes in land cover and use; 3) significantly increase communication and collaboration with the disciplines and sectors of society currently responsible for managing the new land uses; and 4) develop and adopt a dynamic and flexible resilience-based land classification system and data-supported conceptual models (e.g., state-and-transition models) that represent all lands, regardless of use and the consequences of land conversion to various uses instead of changes in state or condition that are focused on a single land use.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2014

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Colorado Plateau;Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2002

Modeling and measuring snow for assessing climate change impacts in Glacier National Park, Montana

A 12-year program of global change research at Glacier National Park by the U.S. Geological Survey and numerous collaborators has made progress in quantifying the role of snow as a driver of mountain ecosystem processes. Spatially extensive snow surveys during the annual accumulation/ablation cycle covered two mountain watersheds and approximately 1,000 km2 . Over 7,000 snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements have been made through spring 2002. These augment two SNOTEL sites, 9 NRCS snow courses, and approximately 150 snow pit analyses. Snow data were used to establish spatially-explicit interannual variability in snowpack SWE. East of the Continental Divide, snowpack SWE was lower but also less variable than west of the Divide. Analysis of snowpacks suggest downward trends in SWE, a reduction in snow cover duration, and earlier melt-out dates during the past 52 years. Concurrently, high elevation forests and treelines have responded with increased growth. However, the 80 year record of snow from 3 NRCS snow courses reflects a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, resulting in 20-30 year phases of greater or lesser mean SWE. Coupled with the fine-resolution spatial snow data from the two watersheds, the ecological consequences of changes in snowpack can be empirically assessed at a habitat patch scale. This will be required because snow distribution models have had varied success in simulating snowpack accumulation/ablation dynamics in these mountain watersheds, ranging from R2=0.38 for individual south-facing forested snow survey routes to R2=0.95 when aggregated to the watershed scale. Key ecological responses to snowpack changes occur below the watershed scale, such as snow-mediated expansion of forest into subalpine meadows, making continued spatially-explicit snow surveys a necessity.

Montana↗