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USGS2019

Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains

We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution. Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate change. Thirty-three scenario combinations were modeled, facilitating landscape planning and mitigation efforts under a range of possible landscape futures. Change in rangeland from 2014 to 2100 varied from an increase of 4.3% for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario, to a decline of 23.6% for the SRES A1B scenario. The spatially and thematically detailed projections are designed for the assessment of landscape interactions with water flow and water quality, species distribution and abundance modeling, greenhouse gas assessments, and other ecosystem services.

Rangelands↗

USGS2012

Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay

Poised at the interface of rivers, ocean, atmosphere and dense human settlement, estuaries are driven by a large array of natural and anthropogenic forces. San Francisco Bay exemplifies the fast-paced change occurring in many of the world's estuaries, bays and inland seas in response to these diverse forces. We use observations from this particularly well-studied estuary to illustrate responses to six drivers that are common agents of change where land and sea meet: water consumption and diversion; human modification of sediment supply; introduction of non-native species; sewage input; environmental policy; and climate shifts. In San Francisco Bay, responses to these drivers include, respectively, shifts in the timing and extent of freshwater inflow and salinity intrusion; decreasing turbidity; restructuring of plankton communities; nutrient enrichment; elimination of hypoxia and reduced metal contamination of biota; and food web changes that decrease resistance of the estuary to nutrient pollution. Detection of these changes and discovery of their causes through environmental monitoring have been essential for establishing and measuring outcomes of environmental policies that aim to maintain high water quality and sustain services provided by estuarine-coastal ecosystems. The wide range of variability time scales and the multiplicity of interacting drivers place heavy demands on estuarine monitoring programs. But the San Francisco Bay case study illustrates why the imperative for monitoring has never been greater.

California↗

USGS2014

Placing prairie pothole wetlands along spatial and temporal continua to improve integration of wetland function in ecological investigations

We evaluated the efficacy of using chemical characteristics to rank wetland relation to surface and groundwater along a hydrologic continuum ranging from groundwater recharge to groundwater discharge. We used 27 years (1974–2002) of water chemistry data from 15 prairie pothole wetlands and known hydrologic connections of these wetlands to groundwater to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in chemical characteristics that correspond to the unique ecosystem functions each wetland performed. Due to the mineral content and the low permeability rate of glacial till and soils, salinity of wetland waters increased along a continuum of wetland relation to groundwater recharge, flow-through or discharge. Mean inter-annual specific conductance (a proxy for salinity) increased along this continuum from wetlands that recharge groundwater being fresh to wetlands that receive groundwater discharge being the most saline, and wetlands that both recharge and discharge to groundwater (i.e., groundwater flow-through wetlands) being of intermediate salinity. The primary axis from a principal component analysis revealed that specific conductance (and major ions affecting conductance) explained 71% of the variation in wetland chemistry over the 27 years of this investigation. We found that long-term averages from this axis were useful to identify a wetland’s long-term relation to surface and groundwater. Yearly or seasonal measurements of specific conductance can be less definitive because of highly dynamic inter- and intra-annual climate cycles that affect water volumes and the interaction of groundwater and geologic materials, and thereby influence the chemical composition of wetland waters. The influence of wetland relation to surface and groundwater on water chemistry has application in many scientific disciplines and is especially needed to improve ecological understanding in wetland investigations. We suggest ways that monitoring in situ wetland conditions could be linked with evolving remote sensing technology to improve our ability to better inform decisions affecting wetland sustainability and provide periodic inventories of wetland ecosystem services to document temporal trends in wetland function and how they respond to contemporary land-use change.

North Dakota↗

USGS2015

Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States – Representing a decade of land cover change information

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides nationwide data on land cover and land cover change at the native 30-m spatial resolution of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). The database is designed to provide five-year cyclical updating of United States land cover and associated changes. The recent release of NLCD 2011 products now represents a decade of consistently produced land cover and impervious surface for the Nation across three periods: 2001, 2006, and 2011 (Homer et al., 2007; Fry et al., 2011). Tree canopy cover has also been produced for 2011 (Coluston et al., 2012; Coluston et al., 2013). With the release of NLCD 2011, the database provides the ability to move beyond simple change detection to monitoring and trend assessments. NLCD 2011 represents the latest evolution of NLCD products, continuing its focus on consistency, production, efficiency, and product accuracy. NLCD products are designed for widespread application in biology, climate, education, land management, hydrology, environmental planning, risk and disease analysis, telecommunications and visualization, and are available for no cost at http://www.mrlc.gov. NLCD is produced by a Federal agency consortium called the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) (Wickham et al., 2014). In the consortium arrangement, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) leads NLCD land cover and imperviousness production for the bulk of the Nation; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completes NLCD land cover for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) coastal zones; and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) designs and produces the NLCD tree canopy cover product. Other MRLC partners collaborate through resource or data contribution to ensure NLCD products meet their respective program needs (Wickham et al., 2014).

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2007

A watershed approach to ecosystem monitoring in Denali National Park and preserve, Alaska

The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve, a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska, to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions, on scaling issues and regionalization, ecosystem structure and function, indicator selection and evaluation, and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek, a headwater stream near Denali headquarters, is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle, hypotheses of global climate change, and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate, but poorly studied, positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota, environmental variables, or defined ecological processes, in order to establish ecological conditions and detect, track, and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical, chemical, and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets, program integration and scaling, and research needs.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2012

A state-based national network for effective wildlife conservation

State wildlife conservation programs provide a strong foundation for biodiversity conservation in the United States, building on state wildlife action plans. However, states may miss the species that are at the most risk at rangewide scales, and threats such as novel diseases and climate change increasingly act at regional and national levels. Regional collaborations among states and their partners have had impressive successes, and several federal programs now incorporate state priorities. However, regional collaborations are uneven across the country, and no national counterpart exists to support efforts at that scale. A national conservation-support program could fill this gap and could work across the conservation community to identify large-scale conservation needs and support efforts to meet them. By providing important information-sharing and capacity-building services, such a program would advance collaborative conservation among the states and their partners, thus increasing both the effectiveness and the efficiency of conservation in the United States.

BioScience↗

USGS2005

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 14. Interpretation of ground-water geochemistry in catchments other than the Straight Creek catchment, Red River Valley, Taos County, New Mexico, 2002-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Environment Department, is investigating the pre-mining ground-water chemistry at the Molycorp molybdenum mine in the Red River Valley, New Mexico. The primary approach is to determine the processes controlling ground-water chemistry at an unmined, off-site but proximal analog. The Straight Creek catchment, chosen for this purpose, consists of the same Tertiary-age quartz-sericite-pyrite altered andesite and rhyolitic volcanics as the mine site. Straight Creek is about 5 kilometers east of the eastern boundary of the mine site. Both Straight Creek and the mine site are at approximately the same altitude, face south, and have the same climatic conditions. Thirteen wells in the proximal analog drainage catchment were sampled for ground-water chemistry. Eleven wells were installed for this study and two existing wells at the Advanced Waste-Water Treatment (AWWT) facility were included in this study. Eight wells were sampled outside the Straight Creek catchment: one each in the Hansen, Hottentot, and La Bobita debris fans, four in a well cluster in upper Capulin Canyon (three in alluvial deposits and one in bedrock), and an existing well at the U.S. Forest Service Questa Ranger Station in Red River alluvial deposits. Two surface waters from the Hansen Creek catchment and two from the Hottentot drainage catchment also were sampled for comparison to ground-water compositions. In this report, these samples are evaluated to determine if the geochemical interpretations from the Straight Creek ground-water geochemistry could be extended to other ground waters in the Red River Valley , including the mine site. Total-recoverable major cations and trace metals and dissolved major cations, selected trace metals, anions, alkalinity; and iron-redox species were determined for all surface- and ground-water samples. Rare-earth elements and low-level As, Bi, Mo, Rb, Re, Sb, Se, Te, Th, U, Tl, V, W, Y, and Zr were determined on selected samples. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), mercury, sulfate stable isotope composition (δ 34 S and δ 18 O of sulfate), stable isotope composition of water (δ 2 H and δ 18 O of water) were measured for selected samples. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and 3 He and 3 H were measured for age dating on selected samples. Linear regressions from the Straight Creek ground-water data were used to compare ground-water chemistry trends in non-Straight Creek ground waters with Straight Creek alluvial ground-water chemistry dilution trends. Most of the solute trends for the ground waters are similar to those for Straight Creek but there are some notable exceptions. In lithologies that contain substantial pyrite mineralization, acid waters form with similar chemistries to those in Straight Creek and all the waters tend to be calcium-sulfate type. Hottentot ground waters contain substantially lower calcium concentrations relative to those in Straight Creek. This anomaly results from the exposure of rhyolite porphyry in the Hottentot scar and weathering zone. The rhyolite contains less calcium than the altered andesites and tuffs in the Straight Creek catchment and probably does not have the abundant gypsum and calcite. The Hansen ground waters have reached gypsum saturation and have similar calcium, magnesium, and beryllium concentrations as Straight Creek ground waters but have lower concentrations of fluoride, manganese, zinc, cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium. Lower concentrations of elements related to mineralization at Hansen likely reflect the more distal location of Hansen with respect to intrusive centers that provided the heat source for hydrothermal alteration. The other ground water with water chemistry trends that are outside the Straight Creek trends was from an alluvial well from Capulin Canyon (CC2A). Although it had pH values near 6.0 and most major ions similar to the other Capulin Canyon ground waters, it contained high concentrations of fluoride, manganese, aluminum, iron, beryllium, and zinc similar to a mineralized zone and had low alkalinity. Saturation indices indicate that solubility constraints continue to provide upper limits on some solute concentrations. Siderite, ferrihydrite, calcite, gypsum, rhodochrosite, and barite provide limits for concentrations of Fe(II), Fe(III), Ca, Mn, and Ba, respectively. Beryllium concentrations may be subject to an upper concentration limit by the solubility of Be(OH) 2 but these concentrations probably are not reached in the ground waters. Ground-water isotopic data were consistent with the meteoric water line estimated for precipitation in the Red River Valley, indicating that all the ground waters examined in this study were meteoric, recent in origin, and showed no substantial indication of evaporation. Tritium-helium-3 and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) age dating were partially successful. Generally, dates were consistent with location and depth of wells. Two samples had good agreement between CFC dates and tritium-helium dates, whereas a third reflected either substantial mixing with younger or older waters or complications arising from excess helium-4. The well at La Bobita appeared to contain a large component of modern water, most likely as a result of mixing with water from Red River alluvial deposits.

New Mexico↗

USGS2019

One hundred pressing questions on the future of global fish migration science, conservation, and policy

Migration is a widespread but highly diverse component of many animal life histories. Fish migrate throughout the world's oceans, within lakes and rivers, and between the two realms, transporting matter, energy, and other species (e.g., microbes) across boundaries. Migration is therefore a process responsible for myriad ecosystem services. Many human populations depend on the presence of predictable migrations of fish for their subsistence and livelihoods. Although much research has focused on fish migration, many questions remain in our rapidly changing world. We assembled a diverse team of fundamental and applied scientists who study fish migrations in marine and freshwater environments to identify pressing unanswered questions. Our exercise revealed questions within themes related to understanding the migrating individual's internal state, navigational mechanisms, locomotor capabilities, external drivers of migration, the threats confronting migratory fish including climate change, and the role of migration. In addition, we identified key requirements for aquatic animal management, restoration, policy, and governance. Lessons revealed included the difficulties in generalizing among species and populations, and in understanding the levels of connectivity facilitated by migrating fishes. We conclude by identifying priority research needed for assuring a sustainable future for migratory fishes.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Assessment of rangeland ecosystem conditions in Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument, Arizona

Sustainability of dryland ecosystems depends on the functionality of soil-vegetation feedbacks that affect ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling, water capture and retention, soil erosion and deposition, and plant establishment and reproduction. Useful, common indicators can provide information on soil and site stability, hydrologic function, and biotic integrity. Evaluation of rangeland health thus relies on describing the condition and sustainability of these individual, measurable, and observable indicators that are linked to important ecosystem processes. This report focuses on the ~200,000 acres of the Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument that is administered by the National Park Service (NPS)—one of the largest NPS units where livestock grazing is a permitted land-use activity. Many ecosystems in the monument are characterized by a low degree of resilience to improper grazing because of low and variable precipitation. The monument is marked by a high degree of environmental heterogeneity, including a large elevation gradient, widely differing precipitation patterns, a diversity of geologic substrates, and unique combinations of plant species. The objective of this report is to (1) increase our understanding of the underlying landscape, soil, and climate setting factors that affect Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument dryland ecosystem structure and function (also referred to as land potential) and (2) characterize the condition of monument ecosystems in relation to management concepts, such as rangeland health. Data were analyzed by elevation zone using both univariate and multivariate approaches. Survey results document the high level of diversity within the study area, including 15 unique soil taxa and 271 species of plants. We collected three new plant species for Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument and 17 new species for the NPS portion of the monument. Results also document a strong association between rangeland health indicators and elevation, topographic setting, and soils. Soil factors found to explain important variation across plots include the amount of exposed bedrock, soil rockiness, soil texture (and associated hydrologic properties), and soil depth. We also found that dominant species turnover across elevation may represent species’ differences in adaptation to climates, including Larrea tridentata , Coleogyne ramosissima , and Artemisia spp. Bromus rubens is the most common invasive species of concern recorded in this study, but other common invasive species are Bromus tectorum , Erodium cicutarium , and Schismus arabicus . Correlations between an index of cattle use and indicators of rangeland health suggest that areas with high cattle use have increased bare ground, decreased ground cover, increased frequency of Schismus arabicus , decreased cover of Coleogyne ramosissima and Ephedra spp., and increased cover of Gutierrezia spp. The few strong correlations observed between indicators of vascular plant community cover or abundance and indicators of cattle activity support rangeland assessment and monitoring strategies that do not rely solely on plant-based indicators are needed. This work supports management of dryland ecosystems, including Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument, using concepts of land potential. We conclude the report with recommendations on improving existing land-potential-based classification systems, associated interpretations, and methods for moving forward with a Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument rangeland monitoring program.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Floodplains and climate change

Floodplains are landscape features that are periodically inundated by water from adjacent rivers (Opperman et al. 2010). Ecologically, functional floodplains are characterized by three primary elements: connectivity, flow regime, and spatial scale. Water quantity flowing over floodplains can vary greatly. Based on a flood’s effects on the floodplain, three flood categories have been defined: floodplain-activation floods, floodplain-maintenance floods, and floodplainresetting floods (Box 1). Several physical parameters determine the types of ecosystems on floodplains and the species they will support; these include temperature, water depth, water velocity, and hydrologic connectivity (Opperman et al. 2010). Natural ecosystems commonly found on floodplains include annual vegetation, forests, seasonal wetlands, and permanent ponds or wetlands (Whipple et al. 2012). Floodplains provide many valuable ecosystem services: attenuation of flood flows which reduces flood risk, filtration of surface water, recreation, fisheries, agriculture, biodiversity, food availability, and groundwater recharge, which contributes to more-sustained and cooler dry-season flows (Opperman et al. 2010). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Box 1 Floodplain-activation flood A small magnitude flood that occurs relatively frequently and produces characteristic ecological benefits such as food-web productivity and habitat creation for native fish spawning and rearing. Floodplain-maintenance flood A higher magnitude flood that, in addition to providing ecological benefits, results in geomorphic changes including bank erosion and deposition on the floodplain. Floodplain-resetting flood A very high-magnitude flood that occurs rarely and results in extensive geomorphic changes, such as the scouring of floodplain surfaces and changes in channel location due to avulsion. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

California↗

USGS2025

Biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystem temporal stability in herbaceous wetlands in China

Maintaining the stability of ecosystems is critical for supporting essential ecosystem services over time. However, our understanding of the contribution of the diverse biotic and abiotic factors to this stability in wetlands remains limited. Here, we combined data from a field vegetation survey of 725 herbaceous wetland sites in China with remote sensing information from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2010 to 2020 to explore the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the temporal stability of primary productivity. We found that plant species richness directly contributed to stability on a national scale, but that this contribution differed among climate zones, hydrological regimes, and vegetation types. In addition, many abiotic factors, including soil properties, geographical location, and climate also contributed to stability. Piecewise structural equation modeling identified that soil properties, including soil pH, total nitrogen, and soil organic carbon, emerged as primary factors modulating ecosystem stability, both directly and indirectly by affecting species richness and vegetation type. Higher species richness and soil organic carbon were related to higher ecosystem stability in peatlands but less so in coastal and inland marshes. These findings enhance our ability to forecast how wetland ecosystems may respond to future environmental changes and biodiversity loss and can inform policy decisions related to ecosystem stability.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1995

Status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia; summary of hydrologic and climatic data through September 1993

This report contains hydrologic and climatic data that describe the status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia. Data are presented through September 1993, one month into the annual wet season. At the end of September 1993, the chloride concentration of the composite water supply was 66 milligrams per liter, well below the 250 milligrams per liter secondary drinking water standard established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Most of the production wells appeared to be operating at levels consistent with past operations. Several wells at Air Operations remain out of service while they are being used to hydraulically divert the nearby fuel spill. Rainfall thus far in 1993 is 8 percent below the mean annual rainfall of 106 inches. This follows a year when rainfall was 12 percent below the mean annual rainfall. Withdrawal has averaged 856,000 gallons per day during 1993, a decrease from the 1992 average of 936,000 gallons per day. The chloride concentration of pumped water rose during the current quarter (July through September 1993) in most areas, coincident with the annual dry season (March through August). This continues a general trend of increasing chloride concentration that has persisted for more than a year, beginning in the 1992 dry season. Chloride concentration rose progressively during the current quarter in monitoring wells at Cantonment and Air Operations. Chloride concentrations in the deeper monitoring wells have generally been increasing since 1992. A fuel spill at Air Operations caused the shutdown of ten wells in May 1991. Four of the wells have resumed pumping to the water supply, but water from the remaining six wells is being used to hydraulically contain and divert fuel migration.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Conservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks

The impacts of climate change (CC) on natural and cultural resources are far-reaching and complex. A major challenge facing resource managers is not knowing the exact timing and nature of those impacts. To confront this problem, scientists, adaptation specialists, and resource managers have begun to use scenario planning (SP). This structured process identifies a small set of scenarios—descriptions of potential future conditions that encompass the range of critical uncertainties—and uses them to inform planning. We reflect on a series of five recent participatory CC SP projects at four US National Park Service units and derive guidelines for using CC SP to support natural and cultural resource conservation. Specifically, we describe how these engagements affected management, present a generalized CC SP approach grounded in management priorities, and share key insights and innovations that (1) fostered participant confidence and deep engagement in the participatory CC SP process, (2) shared technical information in a way that encouraged informed, effective participation, (3) contextualized CC SP in the broader picture of relevant longstanding or emerging nonclimate stressors, (4) incorporated quantitative approaches to expand analytical capacity and assess qualitative findings, and (5) translated scenarios and all their complexity into strategic action.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2025

U.S. national park units as breeding bird habitat: A comparison of species prevalence and land cover across the midwestern and central United States

The value of national parks as bird habitat depends not only on local conditions within the parks, but also on the landscape habitat matrices in which they are located. However, the influences of local and landscape habitat matrices on birds vary by species and have not been quantified. Similarly, the trends of land cover types through time have not been systematically quantified for Midwest Region national parks and the landscapes around them, despite evidence of ongoing habitat loss exacerbated by climate change and human population growth. Managers and policy makers can use this information to understand and sustain the contribution of parks to our Nation’s avifauna. We developed models using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data collected on routes from across the central United States. The models were used to predict occupancy of bird species of concern in 32 national park units across nine Bird Conservation Regions in the Midwest based on land cover in and around those parks. We then compared these predictions with data collected through National Park Service (NPS) bird surveys at each park to determine if bird species of concern were more or less prevalent than expected. In each park, the mean difference between observed species detections and mean predicted detections indicates that most species are less frequently detected in the parks than predicted. However, when the range of uncertainty of predictions is considered, only 21% of park-bird combinations showed strong evidence (95%) of differing from expectation. Of these, species were less common than expected in the park in all but two cases. These results indicate that some bird species of concern occupy sites in Midwest Region national park units at a rate roughly comparable to sites with similar land cover in the Bird Conservation Region (BCR) in which they occur. However, for one in five species-park combinations, parks appear to be less occupied than comparable sites elsewhere.

Midwest region↗

USGS2009

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Final project memorandum: Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Project

Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers worked with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop information sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100 including their potential impact on the missions of federally-managed lands. Researchers drew from existing information on regional and global sea-level rise scenarios to develop customized information sheets for 54 federally-managed lands in the region (e.g., National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service lands, National Estuarine Research Reserves) (Chivoiu et al. 2020). This project was developed in response to a request for customized sea-level rise scenario products from partners at the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Gulf Restoration Program. The results of this project support the conservation stewardship missions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service by providing science to inform management of their lands along the Gulf of Mexico.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Chaparral

One of the most dynamic California ecosystems is chaparral. Dominated by evergreen, sclerophyllous shrubs and small trees, chaparral is the most extensive vegetation type in the state (Figure 1). The nearly impenetrable tangle of stiff branches of this unusual vegetation inhibits exploration, and as a consequence the public know little about its natural history and unique characteristics. This under-valued ecosystem is recognized instead by the threat of its extensive, high-intensity canopy-burning wildfires that characterize the dry summer and fall seasons of the state. Because urban areas frequently share borders or intermix with chaparral, societal interests often conflict with conservation of this ecosystem, and understanding its history and dynamics are a key to appreciating its importance. In this chapter we emphasize the principal structure and dynamics of this important ecosystem. The long summer rainless period has strong impacts on all organisms and, importantly, the droughts influence the fire regime that characterizes chaparral. An ecosystem currently characterized by a specific drought and wildfire regime can expect significant impacts from climate change. Because of its dominance at lower elevations, chaparral also is frequently found at or near the boundaries of urban developments and metropolitan centers. Attempts to suppress fire also affect chaparral dynamics in the long absence of fire. The conflicts between the impacts of chaparral wildfire and human life and structures has been an aspect of California’s history since the beginning, but as development encroaches ever more into chaparral regions, the conflicts have increased. Consequently, understanding this vegetation is important not only because of its significance in understanding ecological evolution and the ecological services provided by chaparral, but also because of its direct impacts on human settlements.

Book chapter↗