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USGS2019

Improving earthquake forecasts during swarms with a duration model

Earthquake swarms present a challenge for operational earthquake forecasting because they are driven primarily by transient external processes, such as fluid flow, the behavior and duration of which are difficult to predict. In this study, we develop a swarm duration model to estimate how long a swarm is likely to last based on actuarial statistics of previous swarms in a given region. We demonstrate this approach using swarms that have been identified in the Salton trough in southern California, finding that swarms last an average of ∼ 7 "> ∼ 7 ∼7 days and have a relatively constant 15%–16% chance of terminating each day for the first 14 days of the swarm. Cataloged swarm durations are exponentially distributed, so we use a Poissonian model for swarm termination to encapsulate and extend the actuarial statistics. We then show how using the swarm duration model would have affected the earthquake forecast that was released during the 2016 Bombay Beach swarm. The earthquake forecast is substantially improved by incorporating a probabilistic model for how long the swarm is likely to last.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, to inform logic‐tree weights for the update of the USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii. GMMs are evaluated using two methods. The first is a total residual visualization approach that compares the probability density function (PDF), mean and standard deviations σ "> σ ⁠ , of the observed and predicted ground motion. The second GMM evaluation method we use is the common total residual probabilistic scoring method (log likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the Hawaii seismic hazard model logic trees. The total residual PDF approach provides additional information by preserving GMM over‐ and underprediction across a broad spectrum of periods that is not available from a single value LLH score. We apply these GMM evaluation methods to two different data sets: (1) a database of instrumental ground motions from historic earthquakes in Hawaii from 1973 to 2007 ( ⁠ M w "> M w 4–7.3) and (2) available ground motions from recent earthquakes ( ⁠ M w "> M w 4–6.9) associated with 2018 Kilauea eruptions. The 2018 Kilauea sequence contains both volcanic eruptions and tectonic earthquakes allowing for statistically significant GMM comparisons of the two event classes. The Kilauea ground observations provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of GMMs implemented in the new USGS nshmp‐haz software system. We evaluate GMM performance as a function of earthquake depth and we demonstrate that short‐period volcanic eruption ground motions are not well predicted by any candidate GMMs. Nine of the initial 18 candidate GMMs fit the observed ground motions and meet established criteria for inclusion in the update of the Hawaii seismic hazard model. A weighted mean of four top performing GMMs in this study (NGAsubslab, NGAsubinter, ASK14, A10) is 50% lower for PGA than for GMMS used in the previous USGS seismic hazard model for Hawaii.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Ensembles of ETAS models provide optimal operational earthquake forecasting during swarms: Insights from the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm

Earthquake swarms, typically modeled as time-varying changes in background seismicity that are driven by external processes such as fluid flow or aseismic creep, present challenges for operational earthquake forecasting. While the time decay of aftershock sequences can be estimated with the modified Omori law, it is difficult to forecast the temporal behavior of seismicity rates during a swarm. To explore these issues, we apply the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm, which lasted several weeks and had almost 100 2≤M≤3.6 earthquakes. We develop 3-day forecasts during the swarm based on an ETAS model fit to all prior seismicity in the region as well as an ETAS model fit only to previous swarms in the region, which is better at capturing the higher background rate during the swarm. We also explore forecasts where the background rate is updated periodically during the swarm using data over different lookback windows and find that generally these models perform better than the models where the background rate is fixed. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts by combining the different models weighted according to their performance. The ensemble forecasts outperform all of the individual models and allow us to avoid making arbitrary choices at the outset of a swarm as to which single model will perform the best.

California↗

USGS2020

A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks

Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults, and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M=7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the USA-Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3-yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by pre-mainshock rupture patterns is strongly favoured (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

κ0 and broadband site spectra in Southern California from source model-constrained inversion

Ground-motion modeling requires accurate representation of the earthquake source, path, and site. Site amplification is often modeled by VS30, the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the top 30 meters of the Earth’s surface, though recent studies find that its ability to accurately predict site effects varies. Another measure of the site is κ0, the attenuation of high frequency energy near the site (Anderson & Hough, 1984). We develop a novel application of the Andrews (1986) method to simultaneously invert the spectra of 3,357 earthquakes in Southern California into source and site components. These earthquakes have magnitudes 2.5 to 5.72 and were recorded on 16 stations for a total of 52,297 records. We constrain the inversion with an individual earthquake demonstrating the most Brune-like shape to preserve the site spectra. We then solve for κ0 site amplification at each station in three frequency bands: 1-6 Hz, 6-14 Hz, and 14-35 Hz. The resulting values of κ0 range from 0.017 seconds at ANZA station PFO to 0.059 seconds at ANZA station SND. We compare our results with values of site κ0 from other studies as well as site residuals from GMPEs. We find good agreement between our site κ0 and previous studies in the region. We find that κ0 and high frequency site amplification (14-35 Hz band) correlates well with independent site residuals, making it a good first-order approximation for the effects of site attenuation or amplification on ground motion.

California↗

USGS2019

Length-scale-dependent relationships between VS30 and topographic slopes in southern California

In engineering seismology, the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠ V S ⁠ ) of the upper 30 m of the crust ( ⁠V S30⁠ ) is the primary parameter used in ground‐motion models to predict seismic site effects. ⁠V S30⁠ is typically derived from in situ recordings of V S ⁠ , although proxy‐based approaches (using geologic and/or geomorphometric classifications) are provisionally adopted when measurement‐based ⁠V S30⁠ are sparse or not readily available. Despite the acceptance of proxy approaches, there are limited studies that examine the empirical relationships between ⁠V S30⁠ and topographic attributes measured from various length scales and different resolutions of the digital elevation model. In this study, we examine the relationships between compiled ⁠V S30⁠ measurements from 218 sites in southern California and topographic metrics of slope and relief measured over various length scales. We find that the correlations between topographic metrics and ⁠V S30⁠ are weak but statistically significant. The correlations are improved when topographic slopes and relief are measured over length scales longer than typical hillslopes and ⁠V S30⁠ sites are separated by different geologic groups. This is likely because ⁠V S30⁠ ⁠ , especially on the rock sites, is better reflected in topographic metrics that capture large‐scale topographic relief, as well as landscape positions such as hilltops and valley bottoms.

California↗

USGS2019

Earthquake arrival association with backprojection and graph theory

The association of seismic‐wave arrivals with causative earthquakes becomes progressively more challenging as arrival detection methods become more sensitive, and particularly when earthquake rates are high. For instance, seismic waves arriving across a monitoring network from several sources may overlap in time, false arrivals may be detected, and some arrivals may be of unknown phase (e.g., P or S waves). We propose an automated method to associate arrivals with earthquake sources and obtain source locations applicable to such situations. To do so, we use a pattern detection metric based on the principle of backprojection to reveal candidate sources followed by graph‐theory‐based clustering and an integer linear optimization routine to associate arrivals with the minimum number of sources necessary to explain the data. This method solves for all sources and phase assignments simultaneously, rather than in a sequential greedy procedure as is common in other association routines. We demonstrate our method on both synthetic and real data from the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile seismic network of northern Chile. For the synthetic tests, we report results for cases with varying complexity, including rates of 500 earthquakes/day and 500 false arrivals/station/day, for which we measure true positive detection accuracy of >95% . For the real data, we develop a new catalog between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017 containing 817,548 earthquakes, with detection rates on average 279 earthquakes/day and a magnitude‐of‐completion of M∼1.8 ⁠ . A subset of detections are identified as sources related to quarry and industrial site activity, and we also detect thousands of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1 April 2014 M w 8.2 Iquique earthquake. During the highest rate of aftershock activity, >600 earthquakes/day are detected in the vicinity of the Iquique earthquake rupture zone.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Comment on “Interpretation of Kappa and fmax filters as source effect”, by Igor A. Beresnev

Beresnev (2019) advocates the use of an earthquake slip function that produces an ω-2.5 high-frequency falloff of Fourier displacement spectra in the far field, where ω denotes the angular frequency. He argues that the observed high-frequency decay of earthquake spectra can be adequately modeled by this ω-2.5 falloff, without needing to include high frequency attenuation at shallow depth under the site, commonly characterized as fmax or kappa. In his abstract, Beresnev (2019) describes source models with falloffs intermediate between ω-2 and ω-3 as “providing natural high-cut filtering exclusively as a source effect.” In many studies to date, observed spectra are modeled using an ω-2 source spectrum combined with attenuation along the propagation path, including strong attenuation at shallow depths (< 1 km) beneath a site. It is not clear whether Beresnev (2019) is claiming that path effects (including site attenuation) are unimportant to ground motions or if he is proposing a simple, pragmatic method to fit the high-frequency decay of earthquake spectra.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Relaxing segmentation on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Impact on seismic hazard

The multisegment Wasatch fault zone is a well-studied normal fault in the western United States that has paleoseismic evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. Along the 270-km-long central part of the fault, four primary structural complexities provide possible along-strike limits to these ruptures and form the basis for models of fault segmentation. Here, we assess the impact that the Wasatch fault segmentation model has on seismic hazard by evaluating the time-independent long-term rate of ruptures on the fault that satisfy fault slip rates and paleoseismic event rates, adapting standard inverse theory used in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3), and implementing a segmentation constraint where ruptures across primary structural complexities are penalized. We define three models with varying degrees of rupture penalization: (1) segmented (ruptures confined to individual segments), (2) penalized (multi-segment ruptures allowed, but penalized), and (3) unsegmented (all ruptures allowed). Seismic-hazard results show that on average, hazard is highest for the segmented model, where seismic moment is accommodated by frequent moderate (moment magnitude, M w 6.2–6.8) earthquakes. The unsegmented model yields the lowest average seismic hazard because part of the seismic moment is accommodated by large (M w 6.9–7.9), but infrequent ruptures. We compare these results to model differences derived from other inputs such as slip rate and magnitude scaling relationships and conclude that segmentation exerts a primary control on seismic hazard. This study demonstrates the need for additional geologic constraints on rupture extent and methods by which these observations can be included in hazard-modeling efforts.

Utah↗

USGS2019

On the portability of ML-MC as a depth discriminant for small seismic events recorded at local distances

In this paper we show that M L -M C is a viable and regionally portable depth discriminant and therefore may contribute in nuclear test ban treaty verification. A recent study found that the difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M C ) discriminates shallow seismic events (mining blasts, mining-induced earthquakes, and shallow tectonic earthquakes) from deeper tectonic earthquakes in the Utah region. The shallow seismic events had anomalously high M C values, with increasingly negative M L -M C values as depth decreased. Here we evaluate the performance of M L -M C as a depth discriminant in three new regions, finding that M L -M C increases between 0–9 km depth in all cases. Initially, we investigated M L -M C as a function of depth for naturally occurring earthquakes in the region around Yellowstone National Park, as recorded by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. For 3,358 Yellowstone earthquakes with well-constrained depths, we found M L -M C increased 0.030 ± 0.007 magnitude units (m.u.) for each 1 km increase in depth up to 10 km depth. Next, we examined M L -M C values for anthropogenic seismicity in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, as recorded by the National Earthquake Information Center. For 1,628 events with well-constrained depths, we computed a slope for M L -M C of 0.022 ± 0.010 m.u./km. Finally, we analyzed M L -M C for 28,722 well-located earthquakes in Italy, as recorded by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, and found an M L -M C slope of 0.018 ± 0.001 m.u./km. In each case, the quoted error bounds represent 95% confidence regions which exclude zero, implying that the depth-dependence of M L -M C is statistically significant. We performed several robustness tests in which we varied the criterion used to define a well-constrained depth and the depth range used in the linear fit. In nearly all cases, we found a positive slope for M L -M C vs. depth at a confidence level above 95%.

Utah, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2020

Estimating rupture dimensions of three major earthquakes in Sichuan, China, for early warning and rapid loss estimates

Large earthquakes like in Wenchuan in 2008, MW 7.9, Sichuan, China, provide opportunity for earthquake early warning (EEW) as many heavily shaken areas are far (~50 km) from the epicenter and warning time could be long enough (≥ 5 s) to take effective preventative action. On the other hand, earthquakes with magnitudes larger than ~M 6.5 are challenging for EEW since source dimensions need to be defined in order to adequately estimate shaking. The Finite-Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) is an approach to identify fault rupture extents from real-time strong motion and/or broadband records. In this study, we playback local and regional on-scale strong motion waveforms recorded during the 2008 MW 7.9 Wenchuan, 2013 MW 6.6 Lushan, and 2017 MW 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes to study the performance of FinDer for the current layout of the China Strong Motion Network. Overall, the FinDer line-source models agree well with the observed spatial distribution of aftershocks and fault models determined from waveform inversion. However, since FinDer models are constructed to characterize seismic ground motions (as needed for EEW) instead of source parameters, the rupture length can be overestimated for events radiating high levels of high-frequency motions, as is the case in the Lushan earthquake. If the set of strong motion data used had been available in real-time, 50% to 80% of sites experiencing shaking of intensity MMI IV-VII (light to very strong) and 30% experiencing VIII-IX (severe to violent) could have been issued a warning with 10 s and 5 s, respectively, before the arrival of the destructive S-wave. We also show that loss estimates after devastating earthquakes based on the FinDer line-source are more accurate compared to a point-source model. For the Wenchuan earthquake, for example, they predict a four to six times larger number of fatalities and injured, which is consistent with official reports. At the same time, these losses could be provided 1/2~3 hours faster than if based on more complex inversion rupture models.

Sichuan↗

USGS2019

Establishing high-frequency noise baselines to 100 Hz based on millions of power spectra from IRIS MUSTANG

Advances in seismic instrumentation have enabled data to be recorded at increasing sample rates. This has in turn created a need to establish higher-frequency baselines for assessing data quality, as the widely-used New High (NHNM) and Low Noise Models (NLNM) of Peterson (1993) do not extend to frequencies above 10 Hz. To provide a baseline for higher frequencies (10-100 Hz), we examine power spectral density probability density functions (PSDPDFs) for high-sample-rate stations available from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Services (IRIS DS) MUSTANG quality control system. We compute high-frequency high and low noise baselines by matching the appropriate composite PSDPDF percentile points to NHNM and NLNM power levels at overlapping frequencies (1-10 Hz) and then extending to higher frequencies (10-100 Hz) with piecewise linear fits to the matching PSDPDF percentile. We find that the Peterson NLNM remains an accurate representation of the lower bound of global ambient Earth noise since it is matched by only 0.1% of Global Seismographic Network (GSN) PSDs. We present high-frequency high and low noise baselines intended primarily for use by temporary networks targeting high-frequency signals (e.g. monitoring of aftershocks or induced seismicity) based on statistics of PSDPDFs from all publicly available high-sample-rate data. Most publicly-available high-sample-rate data is recorded by temporary deployments, and the experiment design and scientific targets of these deployments strongly influence the observed statistical distribution of high-frequency noise. We anticipate that the noise baselines presented here will be useful in automated quality control of high-sample-rate seismic data. However, we note that establishing a low noise model that accurately represents the lowest possible ambient Earth noise at frequencies up to 100 Hz will require additional continuous high-sample-rate data from high-quality permanent stations in low-noise environments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Holocene rupture history of the central Teton fault at Leigh Lake; Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

Prominent scarps on Pinedale glacial surfaces along the eastern base of the Teton Range confirm latest Pleistocene to Holocene surface‐faulting earthquakes on the Teton fault, but the timing of these events is only broadly constrained by a single previous paleoseismic study. We excavated two trenches at the Leigh Lake site near the center of the Teton fault to address open questions about earthquake timing and rupture length. Structural and stratigraphic evidence indicates two surface‐faulting earthquakes at the site that postdate deglacial sediments dated by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence to ∼10–11 ka⁠. Earthquake LL2 occurred at ∼10.0 ka (9.7–10.4 ka; 95% confidence range) and LL1 at ∼5.9 ka (4.8–7.1 ka; 95%). LL2 predates an earthquake at ∼8ka identified in the previous paleoseismic investigation at Granite Canyon. LL1 corresponds to the most recent Granite Canyon earthquake at ∼4.7–7.9 ka (95% confidence range). Our results are consistent with the previously documented long‐elapsed time since the most recent Teton fault rupture and expand the fault’s earthquake history into the early Holocene.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Directivity of M 3.1 earthquake near Anza, California and the effect on peak ground motion

We show the effect of rupture directivity on peak ground‐motion values for a moderate magnitude event at Anza, California, and neighboring stations at the Imperial Valley. The event was located near Borrego Springs on the west side of the Salton Sea and was well recorded at broadband stations near Anza, California, and at stations on the west side of the Imperial Valley. After correcting for regional attenuation, an anomalously large residual in peak motion was observed at station ERR just to the southeast of the epicenter. Using the algorithm from Boatwright (2007) , peak motions from the regional seismic networks in southern California were inverted to determine directivity, which was to the southeast along the trend of the San Jacinto fault toward station ERR. This algorithm uses peak values compiled for the ShakeMap system mostly at regional distances. It does not capture the main features of the source time function (STF) predicted by directivity. Consequently, we determined the second‐degree moments for this earthquake, which confirmed that station ERR has a shorter and higher STF compared to stations to the northwest suggesting rupture propagated to the southeast. The azimuthal distribution of local stations is sparse, but nevertheless the largest amplitudes (such as at station ERR) correlate well with the maximum in the radiation pattern and smaller values with the minima, which is the radiation pattern for SH plus the effect of directivity. Using the data from the analysis of the second‐degree moments, the characteristic length of the fault is 0.58 km, assuming an idealized unilateral extended rupture with a rupture time of 0.09 s. This yields an apparent rupture velocity of 6.4    km / s "> 6.4 km / s for an idealized model, which is super shear. This value is model dependent and would change if, for example, the rupture was bilateral. Although this value is even greater than the P ‐wave velocity, it supports the idea that the rupture velocity is super shear and would enhance the correlation between the peak motions and the radiation pattern.

California↗

USGS2020

Earthquake magnitude and Lg Q variations between the Grenville and northern Appalachian geologic provinces of eastern Canada

This article assesses the ability of regionally specific, frequency‐dependent crustal attenuation ( ⁠ 1 / Q "> 1 / Q ⁠ ) to reduce mean magnitude discrepancies between seismic stations in the northern Appalachian and Grenville provinces (NAP and GP) of Canada. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is an important parameter in ground‐motion models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Discrepancies in regional magnitude estimates have long been noted to exist between stations in the two provinces for common event origins. Such discrepancies could arise from systematic site condition variations between the geologic provinces or from varying crustal attenuative properties. To evaluate the effect of frequency‐dependent anelastic attenuation, Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) on estimated magnitudes, we analyze Lg amplitudes from > 6000 "> > 6000 waveforms recorded by Grenville and northern Appalachian receivers from 420 natural earthquakes of M N "> M N magnitude 3–5.6. Waveform analysis is strictly limited to analyst‐reviewed, vertical‐component waveforms in which Lg is clearly identified, ensuring that the datasets exhibit dominant, high‐frequency energy in the Lg velocity window. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is found to be higher in the GP than in the northern Appalachians. In the Grenville, Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) "> Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) ⁠ , and in the northern Appalachians, attenuation is higher: Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) "> Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) . Earthquake magnitude determined using the peak amplitude of the Lg phase ( ⁠ m b L g "> m b L g ) for eastern Canada is corrected to incorporate the frequency‐dependent, regionally specific Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) determined in this study. Using the new Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) values diminishes and nearly resolves magnitude discrepancies between the provinces. Correcting regional magnitude discrepancies between provinces is critical for reliable regional seismic hazard estimates because magnitude error in a particular region could lead to increased uncertainty in seismic hazard models.

Grenville Geologic Province, Northern Appalachian ↗

USGS2020

Basin amplification effects in the Puget Lowland, Washington from strong motion recordings and 3D simulations

Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground‐motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong‐motion recordings of five local earthquakes ( M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentary basin effects within the Seattle and Tacoma basins. We observe basin‐edge generated surface waves at sites within the Seattle basin for most ray paths that cross the Seattle fault zone. We also note previously undocumented basin‐edge surface waves in the Tacoma basin during one of the local earthquakes. To place quantitative constraints on basin amplification, we determine amplification factors by computing the spectral ratios of inside‐basin sites to outside‐basin sites at 1, 2, 3, and 5 s periods. Ground shaking is amplified in the Seattle basin for all the earthquakes analyzed and for a subset of events in the Tacoma basin. We find that the largest amplification factors in the Seattle basin are produced by a shallow earthquake located to the southwest of the basin. Our observation suggests that future shallow crustal and megathrust earthquakes rupturing west of the Puget Lowland will produce greater amplification within the Seattle basin than has been seen for intraslab events. We also perform ground‐motion simulations using a finite‐difference method to validate a 3D Cascadia velocity model (CVM) by comparing properties of observed and synthetic waveforms up to a frequency of 1 Hz. Basin‐edge effects are well reproduced in the Seattle basin, but are less well resolved in the Tacoma basin. Continued study of basin effects in the Tacoma basin would improve the CVM.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Regionally Optimized Background Earthquake Rates from ETAS (ROBERE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

We use an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) based approach to develop a regionally optimized background earthquake rates from ETAS (ROBERE) method for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. ROBERE fits parameters to the full seismicity catalog for a region with maximum‐likelihood estimation, including uncertainty. It then averages the earthquake rates over a suite of catalogs from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using stochastic declustering while maintaining the same Gaussian smoothing currently used for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The NSHM currently determines these rates by smoothing a single catalog from which foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed using the method of Gardner and Knopoff (1974 ; hereafter, GK74). The parameters used in GK74 were determined from subjectively identified aftershock sequences, unlike ROBERE, in which both background rate and aftershock triggering parameters are objectively fitted. A major difference between the impacts of the two methods is GK74 significantly reduces the b "> b ‐value, a critical value for seismic hazard analysis, whereas ROBERE maintains the original b "> b ‐value from the full catalog. We apply these methods to the induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas and tectonic activity in the San Francisco Bay Region. Using GK74 gives lower overall earthquake rates but estimates higher hazard due to the reduction in the b "> b ‐value. ROBERE provides higher earthquake rates, at the magnitude of completeness, but lower hazard because it does not alter the b "> b ‐value. We test two other declustering methods that produce results closer to ROBERE but do not use objectively fit parameters, include uncertainty, and may not work as well in other areas. We suggest adopting ROBERE for the NSHM so that our hazard estimates are based on an objective analysis, including uncertainty, and do not depend strongly on potentially biased b "> b ‐values, which was never the goal of the existing methodology.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Evolution of faulting induced by deep fluid injection, Paradox Valley, Colorado

High‐pressure fluid injection into a subhorizontal confined aquifer at 4.3–4.6 km depth induced > 7000 "> > 7000 >7000 earthquakes between 1991 and 2012 within once seismically quiescent Paradox Valley in Colorado, with magnitudes up to M w "> M w Mw 3.9. Earthquake hypocenters expanded laterally away from the well with time, defining the margins of the aquifer pressurized by injection at the well. Within 5 km of the well, alignment of earthquake hypocenters defines strikes of nine vertical fault zones. Previous studies show that these fault zones predate injection, producing left‐stepping offsets in the normal faults of the Wray‐Mesa fault system that cradles Paradox Valley. Hypocenters, rakes, and strikes of 2041 well‐constrained focal mechanisms show that most injection‐related earthquakes occur where these vertical faults intersect the pressurized aquifer. Well‐defined focal mechanisms show that this induced seismicity consists of Riedel shear faults at acute angles to the strikes of these fault zones. These small faults develop an anastomosing fault structure of focal planes along each planar fault zone, as fluid injection continues, even as their hypocenters define a single planar fault zone. Failure conditions at each hypocenter are found using a fully coupled poroelastic analysis of stress induced by fluid injection, and this analysis indicates a minimum Coulomb failure condition of 0.1 MPa. This failure condition is primarily a result of aquifer pore‐fluid pressurization, as almost all well‐located seismicity is within the pressurized aquifer. Reducing the rate of injection and frequent well shutdowns in the second decade nearly eliminated induced seismicity, except very near the well where gradients in pressurization are the largest. Despite these decreases in failure conditions and seismicity, some fault zones continued to produce earthquakes larger than M 3 as injection continued.

California↗