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USGS2024

Evidence of long-range transport of selenium downstream of coal mining operations in the Elk River Valley, Canada

Expanding coal-mining operations in the Elk River Valley (British Columbia, Canada) have increased total selenium (Se) concentrations in the transboundary Lake Koocanusa (Canada and United States), but the spatial extent of Se transport from the Elk River Mines is unknown. We evaluated multiple lines of evidence of long-range transport of Se at five sites downstream of the mines relative to a site unaffected by the mines. First, all mine-affected sites had increasing trends in flow-normalized Se concentrations between 2005 and 2021 (35–89%), while no trend was observed at the unaffected site between 2005 and 2017. Second, all mine-affected sites had elevated annual mean Se concentrations and 5-year mean annual loads (2013–2017) by up to an order of magnitude relative to the unaffected site. Third, Se concentrations and the magnitude of the concentration trend generally decreased with distance downstream from the mines while loads increased, which is consistent with the downstream transport of the bulk of the Se load from the mines with smaller contributions from other sources. These results provide multiple lines of evidence that Se from the Elk River Mines is transported over 575 river kilometers and may pose risks to aquatic life in the transboundary Columbia River.

Elk River Valley↗

USGS2004

Developmental instability in Rhus copallinum L.: multiple stressors, years, and responses

Developmental instability, as assessed by leaf fluctuating asymmetry and stem internode allometry, was examined at nine sites, representing three levels of disturbance, over multiple years. Site selection was based on land‐use disturbance classes related to training of mechanized infantry and other land management activities at Fort Benning, Georgia. Developmental instability varied among sites and years, and there was a strong site‐by‐year interaction for many traits. Indeed, depending on the year, the same site could be ranked as having the greatest and least amount of leaf fluctuating asymmetry. Burning a site the year prior to collecting the leaves profoundly influenced measures of leaf fluctuating asymmetry. In the absence of recent burning, leaf fluctuating asymmetry declined with increasing disturbance, but burning the year prior to collecting the leaves reversed this trend. Total plant cover, proportion of bare ground, and amount of plant litter influenced the amount of leaf asymmetry in a site‐dependent manner. Overall, burning influenced the levels of developmental instability more than either disturbance or microhabitat variables such as total plant cover, which should reflect competition in a plant’s immediate neighborhood.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2023

Longitudinal analyses of catch-at-age data for reconstructing year-class strength, with an application to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the main basin of Lake Huron

We investigated using longitudinal models to reconstruct year-class strength (YCS) from catch-at-age data, with an example application to lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in the main basin of Lake Huron. The best model structure depended on the age range used for model implementation. The YCS trajectory from the full age range (3–30 years) was similar to the trajectory from a narrow age range that approximated the age of recruitment to the fishing gears (5–7 years), but YCS estimates from the full age range included additional variations due to time-dependent selectivity and mortality. When using ages younger or older than the likely ages of recruitment, YCS estimates did not represent recruitment abundances and were also biased by trends in age-specific selectivity and mortality across years. Longitudinal YCS estimates are likely more robust than single-age recruitment indices, which are often subject to interannual changes in catchability and selectivity. Our findings provide guidance for future applications of the longitudinal YCS reconstruction that in turn may inform and supplement more comprehensive research and management programs for understanding fish recruitment dynamics.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2011

Use of recent and historical records to estimate status and trends of a rare and imperiled stream fish, Percina jenkinsi (Percidae)

Rarely encountered animals may be present but undetected, potentially leading to incorrect assumptions about the persistence of a local population or the conservation priority of a particular area. The federally endangered and narrowly endemic Conasauga logperch ( Percina jenkinsi ) is a good example of a rarely encountered fish species of conservation concern, for which basic population statistics are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence frequency for this species using surveys conducted with a repeat-observation sampling approach during the summer of 2008. We also analyzed museum records since the late 1980s to evaluate the trends in detected status through time. The results of these analyses provided support for a declining trend in this species over a portion of its historical range, despite low estimated detection probability. We used the results to identify the expected information return for a given level of monitoring where the sampling approach incorporates incomplete detection. The method applied here may be of value where historic occurrence records are available, provided that the assumption of constant capture efficiency is reasonable.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2021

Groundwater development leads to decreasing arsenic concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley, California

In the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), California, about 10% of drinking water wells since 2010 had arsenic concentrations above the US maximum contaminant level of 10 μg/L. High concentrations of arsenic are often associated with high pH (greater than 7.8) or reduced geochemical conditions. Although most wells have low arsenic (<3 μg/L) and do not have changing arsenic concentrations, this study found that most wells with concentrations above 10 μg/L had arsenic trends. Overall, about 24% of wells had time-series trends since 2010 and 59% had paired-sample trends since 2000. Most wells had decreasing arsenic trends, even in wells with higher arsenic concentrations. These wells often had co-detections of increasing nitrate and sulfate trends that reflect oxic groundwater likely derived from agricultural recharge. Wells with increasing arsenic trends were deeper or located in the valley trough where aquifer materials are more fine-grained and where reducing conditions favor arsenic mobility. Wells with arsenic trends also tend to be clustered near areas of higher well density. Groundwater pumping in these areas has likely increased the contribution of younger, more oxic groundwater in wells with declining arsenic or, less frequently, increased the contribution of higher pH or reduced groundwater in wells with rising arsenic. Projections of arsenic trends indicate that 37 wells with high arsenic presently will be below 10 μg/L in ten years. Unfortunately, these improvements will be largely offset by 31 wells that are expected to increase above 10 μg/L in addition to expected rises in nitrate in wells where arsenic decreased. This study shows how human-altered flow systems can impact the natural geochemical character of water in both beneficial and deleterious ways.

California↗

USGS2001

Geologic structures related to New Madrid earthquakes near Memphis, Tennessee, based on gravity and magnetic interpretations

New inversions of gravity and magnetic data in the region north of memphis. Tennessee, and south of latitude 36?? define boundaries of regional structures and igneous complexes in the upper crust. Microseismicity patterns near interpreted boundaries suggest that igneous complexes influence the locations of microseismicity. A weak seismicity cluster occurs near one intrusion (Covington pluton), at the intersection of the southwest margin of the Missouri batholith and the southeast margin of the Reelfoot rift. A narrow seismicity trend along the Reelfoot rift axis becomes diffuse near a second intrusion (Osceola intrusive complex) and changes direction to an area along the northwest flank of the intrusion. The axial seismicity trend also contains a tight cluster of earthquakes located just outside the Osceola intrusive complex. The mechanical explanation of the two seismicity patterns is uncertain, but the first cluster may be caused by stress concentration due to the high elastic stiffness and strength of the Covington intrusion. The spatially changing seismicity pattern near the Osceola complex may be caused by the preceding factors plus interaction with faulting along the rift axis. The axial seismicity strand itself is one of several connected and interacting active strands that may produce stress concentrations at strand ends and junctions. The microseismicity clusters at the peripheries of the two intrusions lead us to conclude that these stress concentrations or stressed volumes may be locations of future moderate to large earthquakes near Memphis. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2016

Hg concentrations in fish from coastal waters of California and Western North America

The State of California conducted an extensive and systematic survey of mercury (Hg) in fish from the California coast in 2009 and 2010. The California survey sampled 3483 fish representing 46 species at 68 locations, and demonstrated that methylHg in fish presents a widespread exposure risk to fish consumers. Most of the locations sampled (37 of 68) had a species with an average concentration above 0.3 μg/g wet weight (ww), and 10 locations an average above 1.0 μg/g ww. The recent and robust dataset from California provided a basis for a broader examination of spatial and temporal patterns in fish Hg in coastal waters of Western North America. There is a striking lack of data in publicly accessible databases on Hg and other contaminants in coastal fish. An assessment of the raw data from these databases suggested the presence of relatively high concentrations along the California coast and in Puget Sound, and relatively low concentrations along the coasts of Alaska and Oregon, and the outer coast of Washington. The dataset suggests that Hg concentrations of public health concern can be observed at any location on the coast of Western North America where long-lived predator species are sampled. Output from a linear mixed-effects model resembled the spatial pattern observed for the raw data and suggested, based on the limited dataset, a lack of trend in fish Hg over the nearly 30-year period covered by the dataset. Expanded and continued monitoring, accompanied by rigorous data management procedures, would be of great value in characterizing methylHg exposure, and tracking changes in contamination of coastal fish in response to possible increases in atmospheric Hg emissions in Asia, climate change, and terrestrial Hg control efforts in coastal watersheds.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2009

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2026

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Large magnitude snow avalanches (destructive size ≥ D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches during a two-week period. Nearly 200 of these avalanches were size D4 or larger with at least three D5 avalanches. However, placing this 2019 large magnitude avalanche cycle in historic context requires data prior to the instrumental record. Here, we paired tree disturbance data from dendrochronology (1698 to 2020) with meteorological data from the modeled and instrumental record (1901 to 2020) to understand the frequency and climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche cycles. The extensive number of downed trees from the 2019 avalanche cycle allowed us to collect 1,188 cross-sections and cores from 1023 individual trees within 24 avalanche paths across the state. From these samples we identified 4135 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We employed a strategic nested sampling design to spatially aggregate avalanche frequency from individual avalanche paths, to counties, to three major sub-regions (i.e., north, central, and south), and across the entire region (i.e., state of Colorado). Over a period spanning more than three centuries (1698 to 2020), we identified 76 avalanche years within 24 individual avalanche paths. Large magnitude avalanche event frequency varied across paths and sub-regions with several notable region-wide avalanche cycles. Both tree-ring and historical written records highlighted 1899 as a year with widespread and large magnitude avalanche activity similar to the March 2019 avalanche cycle. Since the early-20th century (1900 to 2020) regional avalanche probability declined significantly in parallel with decreasing snowpack throughout Colorado. Similarly, dominant avalanche regimes shifted from large magnitude regional cycles driven by above average snowfall years over most of the record, to regional avalanche cycles occurring more commonly in average to low snow years since 1988. In recent decades, a lack of December precipitation and above average March precipitation characterized years with regional large magnitude avalanche activity. Even with declining snow water equivalent, truly extreme regional large magnitude avalanche cycles remain possible – as demonstrated by the 2019 cycle. This underscores that rare but high-impact events are not eliminated by long-term trends. Understanding the changing snow and weather drivers and subsequent behavior of large magnitude avalanche cycles across multiple spatial scales may improve avalanche forecasting and the products and mitigations strategies developed by structural engineers to mitigate avalanche danger. This can decrease the avalanche risk to the public and improve infrastructure design in avalanche terrain.

Colorado↗

USGS2002

Book review: Bird census techniques, Second edition

Conservation concerns, federal mandates to monitor birds, and citizen science programs have spawned a variety of surveys that collect information on bird populations. Unfortunately, all too frequently these surveys are poorly designed and use inappropriate counting methods. Some of the flawed approaches reflect a lack of understanding of statistical design; many ornithologists simply are not aware that many of our most entrenched counting methods (such as point counts) cannot appropriately be used in studies that compare densities of birds over space and time. It is likely that most of the readers of The Condor have participated in a bird population survey that has been criticized for poor sampling methods. For example, North American readers may be surprised to read in Bird Census Techniques that the North American Breeding Bird Survey 'is seriously flawed in its design,' and that 'Analysis of trends is impossible from points that are positioned along roads' (p. 109). Our conservation efforts are at risk if we do not acknowledge these concerns and improve our survey designs. Other surveys suffer from a lack of focus. In Bird Census Techniques, the authors emphasize that all surveys require clear statements of objectives and an understanding of appropriate survey designs to meet their objectives. Too often, we view survey design as the realm of ornithologists who know the life histories and logistical issues relevant to counting birds. This view reflects pure hubris: survey design is a collaboration between ornithologists, statisticians, and managers, in which goals based on management needs are met by applying statistical principles for design to the biological context of the species of interest. Poor survey design is often due to exclusion of some of these partners from survey development. Because ornithologists are too frequently unaware of these issues, books such as Bird Census Techniques take on added importance as manuals for educating ornithologists about the relevance of survey design and methods and the often subtle interdisciplinary nature of surveys. Review info: Bird Census Techniques, Second Edition. By Colin J. Bibby, Neil D. Burgess, David A. Hill, and Simon H. Mustoe. 2000. Academic Press, London, UK. xvii 1 302 pp. ISBN 0- 12-095831-7.

Condor↗

USGS2003

Temporal and spatial distributions of contaminants in sediments of Santa Monica Bay, California

Contaminant inputs from wastewater discharge, a major source of contamination to Santa Monica Bay (SMB), have declined drastically during the last three decades as a result of improved treatment processes and better source control. To assess the concomitant temporal changes in the SMB sediments, a study was initiated in June 1997, in which 25 box cores were collected using a stratified random sampling design. Five sediment strata corresponding to the time intervals of 1890-1920, 1932-1963, 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997 were identified using 210Pb dating techniques. Samples from each stratum were analyzed for metals, 1,1,1-Trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) and its metabolites (DDTs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and total organic carbon (TOC). Samples from the 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997 strata were also analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and linear alkylbenzenes (LABs). Sediment metal concentrations increased from 1890-1979 and were similar during the time intervals of 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997, although the mass emissions of trace metals from sewage inputs declined substantially during the same time period. Trace organic contamination in SMB was generally highest in sediments corresponding to deposition during the years of 1965-1979 or 1979-1989 and showed a decline in concentration in the 1989-1997 stratum. Temporal trends of contamination were greatest in sediments collected from areas near the Hyperion Treatment Plant (HTP) outfall system and on the slope of Redondo Canyon. The highest contaminant concentrations were present in sediments near the HTP 7-mile outfall in the 1965-1979 stratum. Elevated trace metal and organic concentrations were still present in the 1989-1997 stratum of most stations, suggesting that sediment contaminants have moved vertically in the sediment column since sludge discharges from the 7-mile outfall (a dominant source of contamination to the bay) ceased in 1987. The widespread distributions of DDTs and PCBs in SMB and highly confined distribution of LABs around the HTP outfall system were indicative of a dispersal mechanism remobilizing historically deposited contaminants to areas relatively remote from the point of discharge. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine Environmental Research↗

USGS1998

Estimate of net trophic transfer efficiency of PCBs to Lake Michigan lake trout from their prey

Most of the polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) body burden accumulated by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from the Laurentian Great Lakes is from their food. We used diet information, PCB determinations in both lake trout and their prey, and bioenergetics modeling to estimate the efficiency with which Lake Michigan lake trout retain PCBs from their food. Our estimates were the most reliable estimates to date because (a) the lake trout and prey fish sampled during our study were all from the same vicinity of the lake, (b) detailed measurements were made on the PCB concentrations of both lake trout and prey fish over wide ranges in fish size, and (c) lake trout diet was analyzed in detail over a wide range of lake trout size. Our estimates of net trophic transfer efficiency of PCBs to lake trout from their prey averaged from 0.73 to 0.89 for lake trout between the ages of 5 and 10 years old. There was no evidence of an upward or downward trend in our estimates of net trophic transfer efficiency for lake trout between the ages of 5 and 10 years old, and therefore this efficiency appeared to be constant over the duration of the lake trout's adult life in the lake. On the basis of our estimtes, lake trout retained 80% of the PCBs that are contained within their food.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2008

Updated radiometric calibration for the Landsat-5 thematic mapper reflective bands

The Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) has been the workhorse of the Landsat system. Launched in 1984, it continues collecting data through the time frame of this paper. Thus, it provides an invaluable link to the past history of the land features of the Earth's surface, and it becomes imperative to provide an accurate radiometric calibration of the reflective bands to the user community. Previous calibration has been based on information obtained from prelaunch, the onboard calibrator, vicarious calibration attempts, and cross-calibration with Landsat-7. Currently, additional data sources are available to improve this calibration. Specifically, improvements in vicarious calibration methods and development of the use of pseudoinvariant sites for trending provide two additional independent calibration sources. The use of these additional estimates has resulted in a consistent calibration approach that ties together all of the available calibration data sources. Results from this analysis indicate a simple exponential, or a constant model may be used for all bands throughout the lifetime of Landsat-5 TM. Where previously time constants for the exponential models were approximately one year, the updated model has significantly longer time constants in bands 1-3. In contrast, bands 4, 5, and 7 are shown to be best modeled by a constant. The models proposed in this paper indicate calibration knowledge of 5% or better early in life, decreasing to nearly 2% later in life. These models have been implemented at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and are the default calibration used for all Landsat TM data now distributed through EROS. ?? 2008 IEEE.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1993

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene geomagnetic paleointensity on Hawaii

Geomagnetic paleointensity determinations from radiocarbon-dated lava flows on the island of Hawaii provide an estimate of broad trends in paleointensity for Holocene time and offer a glimpse of intensity variations near the end of the last glacial period. When the data from Hawaii are compared with others worldwide, the intensity of the geomagnetic field seems to have been reduced from the Holocene average by about 35 percent between 45,000 and 10,000 years ago. A long-term reduction of this magnitude is compatible with reported increases in the production rate of cosmogenic nuclides during the same interval.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1984

Paleogene geology and chronology of southwestern Umnak Island, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

The rocks of southwestern Umnak Island (Nikolski area) consist mainly of a slightly deformed marine sedimentary sequence intruded by hypabyssal quartz diorite sills and small plutons. Laminated and thin-bedded argillaceous and tuffaceous mudstone and siltstone reflect volcanic arc sedimentation from late Eocene to early Oligocene time. Zeolite facies minerals formed during diagenesis include heulandite, analcime, quartz, chlorite, and smectite. Radiometric dates from sill rock and plutons yield apparent ages of about 30 Ma, i.e, middle Oligocene. Chemical data from igneous rocks exhibit calc-alkaline and tholeiitic volcanic arc differentiation trends. Dikes of pyroxene basalt yield K/Ar apparent ages as old at 17 Ma, and a columnar-jointed plug of pyroxene basalt is as young as 1 Ma. The fossil ages and radiometric dates from southwestern Umnak Island are similar to those reported from other central and eastern Aleutian islands, and indicate uniformity in the chronology and tectonic development of the archipelago during the Paleogene. Paleomagnetic data suggest possible northward movement but remain equivocal and more work is indicated.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

The gulf surgeon, Acanthurus randalli, a junior synonym of the ocean surgeon, Acanthurus bahianus (teleostei: Acanthuridae)

We compared 62 specimens, 48-126.5 mm standard length, of Acanthurus bahianus from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with 95 specimens from other localities to determine if the distinguishing characters in the original description of the Gulf of Mexico endemic surgeonfish Acanthurus randalli were valid. No color pattern or meristic differences were found, and the only measurement that allowed distinction (91% percent concordance) was the shallower caudal concavity of northeastern Gulf of Mexico specimens. Acanthurus chirurgus from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico also have shallower caudal concavities (93.7% percent concordance) than do conspecifics from other areas, suggesting that this trend may be correlated with some unknown environmental influence. Considering the extended planktonic larval dispersal capabilities of Atlantic surgeonfishes, and that the single divergent morphological character state is also exhibited in a sympatric northeastern Gulf of Mexico population of A. chirurgus , recognition of A. randalli is untenable, and the name is considered a junior synonym of A. bahianus . An identification key to western Atlantic species of Acanthurus that incorporates the results of this study is given.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS1994

Galileo Photometry of Asteroid 951 Gaspra

Galileo images of Gaspra make it possible for the first time to determine a main-belt asteroid's photometric properties accurately by providing surface-resolved coverage over a wide range of incidence and emission angles and by extending the phase angle coverage to phases not observable from Earth. We combine Earth-based telescopic photometry over phase angles 2° ≤ α ≤ 25° with Galileo whole-disk and disk-resolved data at 33° ≤ α ≤ 51° to derive average global photometric properties in terms of Hapke's photometric model. The microscopic texture and particle phase-function behavior of Gaspra's surface are remarkably like those of other airless rocky bodies such as the Moon. The macroscopic surface roughness parameter, θ̄ = 29°, is slightly larger than that reported for typical lunar materials. The particle single scattering albedo, ώ 0 = 0.36 ± 0.07, is significantly larger than for lunar materials, and the opposition surge amplitude, B 0 = 1.63 ± 0.07, is correspondingly smaller. We determine a visual geometric albedo p v = 0.22 ± 0.06 for Gaspra, in close agreement with p v = 0.22 ± 0.03 estimated from Earth-based observations. Gaspra's phase integral is 0.47, and the bolometric Bond albedo is estimated to be 0.12 ± 0.03. An albedo map derived by correcting Galileo images with our average global photometric function reveals subdued albedo contrasts of ±10% or less over Gaspra's northern hemisphere. Several independent classification algorithms confirm the subtle spectral heterogeneity reported earlier (S. Mottola, M. DiMartino, M. Gonano-Beurer, H. Hoffman, and G. Neukum, 1993, Asteroids, Comets, Meteors, pp. 421-424; M. J. S. Belton et al ., 1992, Science 257, 1647-1652). Whole-disk colors (0.41 ≤ λ ≤ 0.99 μm) vary systematically with longitude by about ±5%, but color differences as large as 30% occur locally. Colors vary continuously between end-member materials whose areal distribution correlates with regional topography. Infrared: violet (0.99:0.41-μm) color ratios on Gaspra are strongly correlated with local elevation, being largest at lower elevations and smaller at higher elevations. No correlation was detected between elevation and the green:violet (0.56:0.41-μm) color ratio. Bright materials with a strong 1-μm absorption occur primarily in association with craters along ridges, while darker materials with 30% weaker 1-μm signatures occur downslope. The variations of color and albedo cannot be easily explained by grain-size effects alone or by differences in photometric geometry. The trends observed are consistent with those revealed by laboratory studies of the effects of comminution, glass formation, and segregation of metal from silicate components in chondritic meteorites and also in some silicate mixtures. The relative importance of these various processes on Gaspra remains to be determined.

Icarus↗

USGS2015

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ 18 O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO 2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ 18 O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Texas↗