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USGS2025

Same view through a different lens: Comparing population trends for North American birds using eBird and the Breeding Bird Survey

Confidently estimating population trends is of vital importance for a wide range of ecological, conservation, and management applications. North America has 2 major data sources for estimating population trends of breeding birds—the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the global participatory science project eBird. Because the surveys differ in protocols, coverage, and data analysis, their trend estimates are expected to vary in magnitude, direction, and/or precision for at least some species and regions. Here, we compare independently derived estimates of population change between 2012 and 2022 for every combination of species and bird conservation region (BCR) covered by both surveys ( n = 5,577 combinations) as well as aggregated across entire ranges or within the U.S. or Canada. Uncertainty was substantial for both surveys, though more prevalent for BBS (81% of credibility intervals for estimates included zero) than eBird (34% of confidence intervals overlapped zero). We found agreement of trend directions between the 2 surveys. Only 1.3% of estimated trends were significant in opposite directions between the 2 surveys for all species/BCR combinations, with the median difference in trend magnitude being –0.02% (BBS minus eBird trend). Correlations between the 2 were strongest for estimates that were graded as being high credibility compared to estimates judged to have medium or low credibility. Both surveys were subject to species, taxonomic, and regional effects that influenced agreement. Overall, we show where trend estimates derived from BBS and eBird agree, explore where they diverge, present several comparisons to assist in interpreting results from both surveys, and inform efforts to integrate information from each.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2023

Evidence for density-dependent effects on body composition of a large omnivore in a changing Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Understanding the density-dependent processes that drive population demography in a changing world is critical in ecology, yet measuring performance–density relationships in long-lived mammalian species demands long-term data, limiting scientists' ability to observe such mechanisms. We tested performance–density relationships for an opportunistic omnivore, grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos , Linnaeus, 1758) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with estimates of body composition (lean body mass and percent body fat) serving as indicators of individual performance over two decades (2000–2020) during which time pronounced environmental changes have occurred. Several high-calorie foods for grizzly bears have mostly declined in recent decades (e.g., whitebark pine [ Pinus albicaulis , Engelm, 1863]), while increasing human impacts from recreation, development, and long-term shifts in temperatures and precipitation are altering the ecosystem. We hypothesized that individual lean body mass declines as population density increases (H1), and that this effect would be more pronounced among growing individuals (H2). We also hypothesized that omnivory helps grizzly bears buffer energy intake from changing foods, with body fat levels being independent from population density and environmental changes (H3). Our analyses showed that individual lean body mass was negatively related to population density, particularly among growing-age females, supporting H1 and partially H2. In contrast, population density or sex had little effect on body fat levels and rate of accumulation, indicating that sufficient food resources were available on the landscape to accommodate successful use of shifting food sources, supporting H3. Our results offer important insights into ecological feedback mechanisms driving individual performances within a population undergoing demographic and ecosystem-level changes. However, synergistic effects of continued climate change and increased human impacts could lead to more extreme changes in food availability and affect observed population resilience mechanisms. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term studies in protected areas when investigating complex ecological relationships in an increasingly anthropogenic world.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Declines in prey production during the collapse of a tailwater Rainbow Trout population are associated with changing reservoir conditions

Objective Understanding how energy moves through food webs and limits productivity at various trophic levels is a central question in aquatic ecology and can provide insight into drivers of fish population dynamics since many fish populations are food limited. In this study, we seek to better understand what factors drove a decline of >85% in the number of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss found in the tailwater portion of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam during 2012–2016. Methods We estimate the production of dominant prey using data from previously published studies of Rainbow Trout abundance and growth alongside drift and diet samples. We test how prey production correlates to both proximate (e.g., nutrients) and distal (e.g., limnological conditions in the upriver reservoir) drivers. Result Results suggest that gross consumption of invertebrate prey by the Rainbow Trout population declined from an annual mean of 423 to 69 kg/d. Daily production rates of dominant prey in aggregate declined from a high of 0.173 to 0.018 g·m −2 ·d −1 . Chironomids accounted for 70% of the decline in prey production. Foraging efficiency by Rainbow Trout (range, 0.99–0.67) was high across the range of prey production rates. After the Rainbow Trout population had declined by ~90%, prey consumption saturated at higher rates of prey production and the gross quantity of daily drift exported from the reach increased from 8.9 to 12.7 kg/d. Conclusion Rainbow Trout population dynamics are largely influenced by changes in prey production, which is itself driven by soluble reactive phosphorus ( SRP ) concentrations in the reservoir. The SRP model predicted that prey production would increase by 32 kg/d (SE, 9) for each 1 μg/L increase in SRP . These concentrations were indirectly influenced by reservoir hydrology and biogeochemistry, linkages that may extend far beyond the confines of this tailwater fishery and into the downstream reaches of the Grand Canyon's Colorado River ecosystem. Impact Statement We combined Rainbow Trout diet, growth, and abundance estimates with concentrations of drifting invertebrates to estimate the biomass of Rainbow Trout prey produced over time. Trends in prey biomass production track trends in phosphorous concentrations in the river.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus . Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate ( n = 4) and high ( n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density-independent perturbations.

Montana↗

USGS2021

Winter severity, fish community, and availability to traps explain most of the variability in estimates of adult sea lamprey in Lake Superior

Animal populations are assessed to estimate rates of artificial and natural mortality at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales to develop exploitation quotas. But how the population’s natural mortality rate and how the ability to observe the population changes through time are poorly understood in most invasive fishes, despite efforts to control their populations. By investigating a 30-year abundance index of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in Lake Superior, we found that the index was highly correlated (R 2 = 0.75) with biotic and abiotic factors hypothesized to influence sea lamprey natural mortality and their availability to index traps. The index was lowest in years (1) following winters with below average ice cover on Lake Superior, (2) when stream discharge during sea lamprey migration was below average, (3) when adult sea lamprey were smaller than average, and (4) when adult sea lamprey were more likely to be distributed in tributaries on the east side of Lake Superior. These results highlight the need for policy makers to consider invasive species abundance indexes not just in the context of control effort, but also in the context of biotic and abiotic conditions because they could markedly influence natural mortality or the ability to observe highly suppressed populations.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2004

Differential propagation of the metazoan parasite Myxobolus cerebralis by Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri, Ilyodrilus templetoni, and genetically distinct strains of Tubifex tubifex

Whirling disease, caused by the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, has infected rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and other salmonid fish in the western United States, often with devastating results to native populations but without a discernible spatial pattern. The parasite develops in a complex 2-host system in which the aquatic oligochaete Tubifex tubifex is an obligate host. Because substantial differences in whirling disease severity in different areas of North America did not seem explainable by environmental factors or features of the parasite or its fish host, we sought to determine whether ecological or genetic variation within oligochaete host populations may be responsible. We found large differences in compatibility between the parasite and various laboratory strains of T. tubifex that were established from geographic regions with different whirling disease histories. Moreover, 2 closely related species of tubificids, Limnodrilus hqffmeisteri and Ilyodrilus templetoni, which occur naturally in mixed species assemblages with T. tubifex, were incompatible with M. cerebralis. Virulence of the parasite was directly correlated with the numbers of triactinomyxon spores that developed within each strain of T. tubifex. Thus, the level of virulence was directly related to the compatibility between the host strain and the parasite. Genetic analyses revealed relationships that were in agreement with the level of parasite production. Differences in compatibilities between oligochaetes and M. cerebralis may contribute to the spatial variance in the severity of the disease among salmonid populations. ?? American Society of Parasitologists 2004.

Journal of Parasitology↗

USGS2024

Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) in the Pecos River: Unique life history traits in a nonnative, island population

Nonnative species may display unique life history traits when established in habitats with distinctive environmental and biotic contexts compared with their native ecosystems. Gulf killifish ( Fundulus grandis ), native to coastal habitats of the Gulf of Mexico, are established in several inland river systems where they pose a potential threat to native fishes. In the Pecos River, Texas, nonnative Gulf killifish have shown a high rate of piscivory compared with native coastal populations; otherwise, little is known about the ecology of the species in inland systems. We examined reproductive characteristics, size, and age of Gulf killifish in the Pecos River. We found that reproduction takes place approximately between late March and September, with the gonadosomatic index of females showing a large and extended peak in spring and a second minor peak in late August–September. Our age estimations indicate that this population consists mostly of fish <2 years old, similarly to that reported for coastal populations. Total length ranged 11.9–143.4 mm for males and 32.3–162.5 mm for females, indicating a sexually dimorphic size structure with Pecos River individuals reaching larger sizes compared with coastal populations. The relatively large size and piscivorous nature of Gulf killifish, along with tolerance for a wide range of environmental conditions, are attributes in nonnative species hypothesized to promote invasion success and replacement of native species.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2016

Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak ( Quercus havardii ; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ 2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground ( P  = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction ( P  ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1997

Habitat use and feeding ecology of riverine juvenile American shad

We examined premigratory populations of American shad Alosa sapidissima in the upper Delaware River to determine habitat and microhabitat use, differential prey use among habitat types, and habitat suitability indices for this previously unmodeled life stage. Both seining and diving techniques were used to quantify juveniles in six habitat types with six physical habitat covariables. Plankton and drift samples also were compared with stomach contents within habitats. We found no relation between relative abundance of juveniles and habitat type, which suggests general use of most riverine habitats. Physical habitat variables likewise did not affect use of habitat within ranges recorded, with two exceptions: (1) a positive relationship between abundance and water temperature in riffles and (2) a positive relationship between abundance and percent submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) cover in SAV habitats. Opportunistic use of prey items was apparent; however, juveniles selected chironomid larvae and pupae and adult terrestrial insects and avoided ephemeropterans. Overlap between diets and available prey was high for most habitat types ( C λ mean = 0.71), especially for riffles ( C λ = 0.91). However, overlap for juveniles foraging at tributary mouths, where they strongly selected adult terrestrial insects, was low ( C λ = 0.49).

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2023

Grizzly bear movement models predict habitat use for nearby populations

Conservation planning and decision-making can be enhanced by ecological models that reliably transfer to times and places beyond those where models were developed. Transferrable models can be especially helpful for species of conservation concern, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ). Currently, only four grizzly bear populations remain in the contiguous United States. We evaluated transferability of previously derived individual-based, integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem by applying them within the nearby Selkirk (SE), Cabinet-Yaak (CYE), and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems (GYE). We simulated 100 replicates of 5000 steps for each iSSF in each ecosystem, summarized relative use into 10 equal-area classes for each sex, and overlaid GPS locations from bears in the SE, CYE, and GYE on resulting maps. Spearman rank correlations between numbers of locations and class rank were ≥ 0.96 within each study area, indicating models were highly predictive of grizzly bear space use in these nearby populations. Assessment of models using smaller subsets of data in space and time demonstrated generally high predictive accuracy for females. Although generally high across space and time, predictive accuracy for males was low within some watersheds and in summer within the SE and CYE, potentially due to seasonal effects, vegetation, and food assemblage differences. Altogether, these results demonstrated high transferability of our models to landscapes in the Northern Rocky Mountains, suggesting they may be used to evaluate habitat suitability and connectivity throughout the region to benefit conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2005

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Theoretical Population Biology↗

USGS2009

Gulf of Mexico Deep-Sea Coral Ecosystem Studies, 2008-2011

Most people are familiar with tropical coral reefs, located in warm, well-illuminated, shallow waters. However, corals also exist hundreds and even thousands of meters below the ocean surface, where it is cold and completely dark. These deep-sea corals, also known as cold-water corals, have become a topic of interest due to conservation concerns over the impacts of trawling, exploration for oil and gas, and climate change. Although the existence of these corals has been known since the 1800s, our understanding of their distribution, ecology, and biology is limited due to the technical difficulties of conducting deep-sea research. DISCOVRE (DIversity, Systematics, and COnnectivity of Vulnerable Reef Ecosystems) is a new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) program focused on deep-water coral ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. This integrated, multidisciplinary, international effort investigates a variety of topics related to unique and fragile deep-sea coral ecosystems from the microscopic level to the ecosystem level, including components of microbiology, population genetics, paleoecology, food webs, taxonomy, community ecology, physical oceanography, and mapping.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2009

Effects of spatial habitat heterogeneity on habitat selection and annual fecundity for a migratory forest songbird

Understanding how spatial habitat patterns influence abundance and dynamics of animal populations is a primary goal in landscape ecology. We used an information-theoretic approach to investigate the association between habitat patterns at multiple spatial scales and demographic patterns for black-throated blue warblers (Dendroica caerulescens) at 20 study sites in west-central Vermont, USA from 2002 to 2005. Sites were characterized by: (1) territory-scale shrub density, (2) patch-scale shrub density occurring within 25 ha of territories, and (3) landscape-scale habitat patterns occurring within 5 km radius extents of territories. We considered multiple population parameters including abundance, age ratios, and annual fecundity. Territory-scale shrub density was most important for determining abundance and age ratios, but landscape-scale habitat structure strongly influenced reproductive output. Sites with higher territory-scale shrub density had higher abundance, and were more likely to be occupied by older, more experienced individuals compared to sites with lower shrub density. However, annual fecundity was higher on sites located in contiguously forested landscapes where shrub density was lower than the fragmented sites. Further, effects of habitat pattern at one spatial scale depended on habitat conditions at different scales. For example, abundance increased with increasing territory-scale shrub density, but this effect was much stronger in fragmented landscapes than in contiguously forested landscapes. These results suggest that habitat pattern at different spatial scales affect demographic parameters in different ways, and that effects of habitat patterns at one spatial scale depends on habitat conditions at other scales. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2021

Eastward expansion of Round Goby in New York: Assessment of detection methods and current range

The Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus has spread rapidly around the Great Lakes region since its introduction to North America in 1990. In 2014, a specimen was captured in the New York State Canal System west of Utica, prompting concerns that Round Goby would soon reach the ecologically and economically valuable watersheds of Lake Champlain and the Hudson River estuary. The establishment of Round Goby populations elsewhere has been linked to a number of negative ecological consequences, yet methods for monitoring the invasion front of this species remain limited. The objectives of this study were to assess the current distribution of Round Goby in central New York and to determine the most effective methods for monitoring the invasion front. This was achieved by concurrently using benthic trawling, seining, minnow traps, and environmental DNA (eDNA) twice annually from 2016 to 2019 at 12 sites on the canal system between Oneida Lake and the Hudson River. Of the three traditional gear types, benthic trawling was the most effective method and captured Round Goby as far east as Utica by 2019. This finding suggests only minimal eastward expansion of Round Goby occurred between 2014 and 2019. Round Goby DNA was detected in water samples during all surveys in which individuals were captured with trawling, and the estimated concentration of DNA explained 69% of the variability in trawl catch. At multiple study sites, Round Goby DNA was identified during consecutive surveys before Round Goby were first captured with trawling. This suggests that in lotic waters, eDNA has the potential to forecast or serve as a sentinel for the expansion of Round Goby to new locations. Our results demonstrate the importance of using eDNA in a repeated sampling framework and supplementing eDNA sampling with some level of effort with traditional sampling methods.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2016

The relationship between female brooding and male nestling provisioning: does climate underlie geographic variation in sex roles?

Comparative studies of populations occupying different environments can provide insights into the ecological conditions affecting differences in parental strategies, including the relative contributions of males and females. Male and female parental strategies reflect the interplay between ecological conditions, the contributions of the social mate, and the needs of offspring. Climate is expected to underlie geographic variation in incubation and brooding behavior, and can thereby affect both the absolute and relative contributions of each sex to other aspects of parental care such as offspring provisioning. However, geographic variation in brooding behavior has received much less attention than variation in incubation attentiveness or provisioning rates. We compared parental behavior during the nestling period in populations of orange-crowned warblers Oreothlypis celata near the northern (64°N) and southern (33°N) boundaries of the breeding range. In Alaska, we found that males were responsible for the majority of food delivery whereas the sexes contributed equally to provisioning in California. Higher male provisioning in Alaska appeared to facilitate a higher proportion of time females spent brooding the nestlings. Surprisingly, differences in brooding between populations could not be explained by variation in ambient temperature, which was similar between populations during the nestling period. While these results represent a single population contrast, they suggest additional hypotheses for the ecological correlates and evolutionary drivers of geographic variation in brooding behavior, and the factors that shape the contributions of each sex.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2026

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

USGS2020

The influence of hunting pressure and ecological factors on fecal glucocorticoid metabolites in wild elk

Climate change and human population growth have increased anthropogenic threats to biodiversity and habitat fragmentation. Ecologists and conservationists need tools to assess the effect of these ecological and environmental perturbations on organismal fitness. One possibility is glucocorticoids (e.g., cortisol and corticosterone) which integrate various factors such as anthropogenic disturbances, predation, food, or environmental stressors. Here we tested the hypothesis that fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations (GCMs) in wild female elk ( Cervus canadensis ) increased as the hunting season progressed. We also examined the influence of year, food availability, and elk group size on fecal GCMs. We found that as the hunting season progressed, fecal GCMs tended to decrease. We also found that as the number of cows in a group increased, GCMs decreased, and found a strong effect of year on fecal GCMs, with samples collected in 2016 having lower fecal GCMs than those collected in 2015, 2017, and 2018. However, yearly variation was not driven by availability of hard mast forage. The lack of positive association between hunting pressure and fecal GCMs and identifying what is driving yearly variation in fecal GCMs warrants further study. We highlight the negative influence of group size, possibly due to vigilance, on fecal GCMs and the importance of examining ecologically relevant covariates to accurately identify main treatment effects.

Pennsylvania↗