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U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Activities in the Exploration of Antarctica: Introduction to Antarctica (Including USGS Field Personnel: 1946-59)

INTRODUCTION Antarctica is the planet's fifth largest continent [13.2 million km2 (5.1 million mi2)]; it contains the Earth's largest (of two) remaining ice sheets; it is considered to be one of the most important scientific laboratories on Earth. This report is the introduction to a series that covers 60 years of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific activity in Antarctica. It will concentrate primarily on three major topics: 1) a brief chronological record of the historical search, discovery, and exploration of the southern continent by humans; 2) early USGS scientific activities in Antarctica, listing expeditions, projects, people and resulting professional publications for Operation Highjump, 1946-47; Operation Windmill, 1947-48; USS Atka Reconnaissance Cruise, 1954-55; and Operation Deep Freeze I, II, III, and IV, 1955-59, including IGY; 3) significant changes that have occurred in Antarctic exploration and research since World War II will be discussed at the end of this report. Subsequent Open-File Reports will provide a year-by-year documentation of USGS scientific activities and accomplishments in Antarctica beginning with the post-IGY, 1959-60 research team. One Open-File Report is planned to be written for each field-based season. For an example of the series format, see Open-File Reports 2006-1113 (Meunier, 2007a) and 2006-1114 (Meunier, 2007b). This report is a companion document to Open-File Report 2006-1116 (Meunier, 2007c). The USGS mapping and science programs in Antarctica are among the longest continuously funded projects in the United States Antarctic Program (USAP). The 2005-06 field season is the 56th consecutive U.S. expedition in which USGS scientists have been participants, starting in 1946. USGS and the National Science Foundation (NSF) cooperation began with the establishment by NSF of the U.S. Antarctic (Research) Program [USA(R)P] in 1958-59 under Operation Deep Freeze IV (DF IV) and was given the responsibility for the principal coordination and management of all U.S. scientific activities in Antarctica in Deep Freeze 60 (DF 60) (1959-60). Financial support from NSF, mostly in the form of Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) and Cooperative Agreements, extends back to this period and can be attributed to the need for accurate geologic, geophysical, and topographic base maps of specific field areas or regions where NSF-funded science projects were planned. The epoch of Antarctic exploration during the IGY was driven by science and, in a spirit of peaceful cooperation, the international scientific community wanted to limit military activities on the continent to logistical support (Meunier, 1979 [2007], p. 38). The USGS, a Federal civilian science agency in the Department of the Interior, has, since its founding in 1879, carried out numerous field-based national (and some international) programs in biology, geology, geophysics, hydrology, and mapping. Therefore, the USGS was the obvious choice for these tasks, because it already had a professional staff of experienced mapmakers, scientists, and program managers with the foresight, dedication, and understanding of the need for accurate maps to support the science programs in Antarctica when asked to do so by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Public Laws 85-743 and 87-626, signed in August 1958, and in September 1962, respectively, authorized the Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior, through the USGS, to support mapping and scientific work in Antarctica (Meunier, 1979 [2007], appendix A). Open-File Report 2006-1116 includes scanned facsimiles of postal cachets. It has become an international practice to create postal cachets to commemorate special events and projects in Antarctica. A cachet is defined as a seal or commemorative design printed or stamped on an envelope to mark a philatelic or special event. The inked impression illustrates to the scientist, historian, stamp collector, and general public the multidisciplinary science projects staffed by USGS and collaborating scientists during the field season. Since 1960, philatelic cachets have been created by team members for each USGS field season and, in most cases, these cachets depict the specific geographic areas and field season program objectives. The cachets become a convenient documentation of the people, projects, and geographic places of interest for that year. Because the cachets are representative of USGS activities, each year's cachet is included as a digital facsimile in that year's Open-File Report. In the 1980s, multiple USGS cachets were prepared each year, one for use by the winter team at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station and the other for the project work areas of the austral summer field season programs.

Open-File Report↗

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗

Clinal variation or validation of a subspecies? A case study of the Graptemys nigrinoda complex (Testudines: Emydidae)

Widely distributed species often display intraspecific morphological variation due to the abiotic and biotic gradients experienced across their ranges. Historically, in many vertebrate taxa, such as birds and reptiles, these morphological differences within a species were used to delimit subspecies. Graptemys nigrinoda is an aquatic turtle species endemic to the Mobile Bay Basin. Colour pattern and morphological variability were used to describe a subspecies ( G. n. delticola ) from the lower reaches of the system, although it and the nominate subspecies also reportedly intergrade over a large portion of the range. Other researchers have suggested that these morphological differences merely reflect clinal variation. Our molecular data (mtDNA) did not support the existence of the subspecies, as the haplotypes were differentiated by only a few base pairs and one haplotype was shared between the putative subspecies. While there were significant morphological and pattern differences among putative specimens of G. n. nigrinoda, G. n. delticola and G. n. nigrinoda × delticola , these differences probably represent clinal variation as they were also related to environmental variables [i.e. cumulative drainage area and drainage (categorical)]. Specimens occupying slow-current, high-turbidity river reaches (e.g. the Tensaw River) exhibited greater relative carapace heights and more dark pigmentation, while specimens occupying fast-current, clearer rivers (e.g. the upper Alabama, Cahaba and Tallapoosa rivers) exhibited lower carapace heights and more yellow pigmentation. Given the absence of clear molecular and morphological differences that are related to drainage characteristics, we suggest that there is not sufficient evidence for the recognition of G. n. delticola as a distinct subspecies.

Alabama;Mississippi↗

Statistical guidelines for assessing marine avian hotspots and coldspots: A case study on wind energy development in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean

Estimating patterns of habitat use is challenging for marine avian species because seabirds tend to aggregate in large groups and it can be difficult to locate both individuals and groups in vast marine environments. We developed an approach to estimate the statistical power of discrete survey events to identify species-specific hotspots and coldspots of long-term seabird abundance in marine environments. We illustrate our approach using historical seabird data from survey transects in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), an area that has been divided into “lease blocks” for proposed offshore wind energy development. For our power analysis, we examined whether discrete lease blocks within the region could be defined as hotspots (3 × mean abundance in the OCS) or coldspots (1/3 ×) for individual species within a given season. For each of 74 species/season combinations, we determined which of eight candidate statistical distributions (ranging in their degree of skewedness) best fit the count data. We then used the selected distribution and estimates of regional prevalence to calculate and map statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and estimate the p -value from Monte Carlo significance tests that specific lease blocks are in fact hotspots or coldspots relative to regional average abundance. The power to detect species-specific hotspots was higher than that of coldspots for most species because species-specific prevalence was relatively low (mean: 0.111; SD: 0.110). The number of surveys required for adequate power (> 0.6) was large for most species (tens to hundreds) using this hotspot definition. Regulators may need to accept higher proportional effect sizes, combine species into groups, and/or broaden the spatial scale by combining lease blocks in order to determine optimal placement of wind farms. Our power analysis approach provides a general framework for both retrospective analyses and future avian survey design and is applicable to a broad range of research and conservation problems.

U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf↗

A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

Conservation Biology↗

Ground-water flow direction, water quality, recharge sources, and age, Great Sand Dunes National Monument, south-central Colorado

Great Sand Dunes National Monument is located in south-central Colorado along the eastern edge of the San Luis Valley. The Great Sand Dunes National Monument contains the tallest sand dunes in North America; some rise up to750 feet. Important ecological features of the Great Sand Dunes National Monument are palustrine wetlands associated with interdunal ponds and depressions along the western edge of the dune field. The existence and natural maintenance of the dune field and the interdunal ponds are dependent on maintaining ground-water levels at historic elevations. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study, in collaboration with the National Park Service, of ground-water flow direction, water quality, recharge sources, and age at the Great Sand Dunes National Monument. A shallow unconfined aquifer and a deeper confined aquifer are the two principal aquifers at the Great Sand Dunes National Monument. Ground water in the unconfined aquifer is recharged from Medano and Sand Creeks near the Sangre de Cristo Mountain front, flows underneath the main dune field, and discharges to Big and Little Spring Creeks. The percentage of calcium in ground water in the unconfined aquifer decreases and the percentage of sodium increases because of ionic exchange with clay minerals as the ground water flows underneath the dune field. It takes more than 60 years for the ground water to flow from Medano and Sand Creeks to Big and Little Spring Creeks. During this time, ground water in the upper part of the unconfined aquifer is recharged by numerous precipitation events. Evaporation of precipitation during recharge prior to reaching the water table causes enrichment in deuterium (2H) and oxygen-18 (18O) relative to waters that are not evaporated. This recharge from precipitation events causes the apparent ages determined using chlorofluorocarbons and tritium to become younger, because relatively young precipitation water is mixing with older waters derived from Medano and Sand Creeks. Major ion chemistry of water from sites completed in the confined aquifer is different than water from sites completed in the unconfined aquifer, but insufficient data exist to quantify if the two aquifers are hydrologically disconnected. Radiocarbon dating of ground water in the confined aquifer indicates it is about 30,000 years old (plus or minus 3,000 years). The peak of the last major ice advance (Wisconsin) during the ice age occurred about 20,000 years before present; ground water from the confined aquifer is much older than that. Water quality and water levels of the interdunal ponds are not affected by waters from the confined aquifer. Instead, the interdunal ponds are affected directly by fluctuations in the water table of the unconfined aquifer. Any lowering of the water table of the unconfined aquifer would result in an immediate decrease in water levels of the interdunal ponds. The water quality of the interdunal ponds probably results from several factors, including the water quality of the unconfined aquifer, evaporation of the pond water, and biologic activity within the ponds.

Colorado↗

Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation by feral ungulates

Extinction has claimed half of all historically-known Hawaiian passerines, and today many extant species are increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of invasive species and climate change. Habitat disturbance has affected populations of feeding specialists most profoundly, and our results indicate that specialists continue to be most vulnerable, although even some abundant, introduced, generalist species also may be affected. Surveys of passerines during 1998–2011 in subalpine woodland habitat on Mauna Kea Volcano, Island of Hawai′i, revealed that the abundance of the critically endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a seed specialist, declined by 79% after 2003. The ′akiapōlā′au ( Hemignathus munroi ), an endangered specialist insectivore, was not detected in the survey area after 1998. The Hawai′i ′amakihi ( Hemignathus virens virens ), a generalist feeder and the most abundant species on Mauna Kea, was the only native species to maintain a stable population. The Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), a well-entrenched generalist and one of the three most common introduced species, declined. Drought prevailed in 74% of months during 2000–2011, and dry conditions contributed to the recent decline of the palila by reducing the annual māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seed pod crop, which influences palila breeding and survival. Sustained browsing by introduced ungulates also lowered habitat carrying capacity, and their elimination should reduce the effects of drought and promote forest restoration. Our results illustrate how the feeding ecology of a species can influence its response to interacting environmental perturbations, and they underscore the value of long-term monitoring to detect population trends of sensitive species.

Hawai'i↗

Heatwave-induced synchrony within forage fish portfolio disrupts energy flow to top pelagic predators

During the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016, abundance and quality of several key forage fish species in the Gulf of Alaska were simultaneously reduced throughout the system. Capelin ( Mallotus catervarius ), sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ), and herring ( Clupea pallasii ) populations were at historically low levels, and within this community abrupt declines in portfolio effects identify trophic instability at the onset of the heatwave. Although compensatory changes in age‐structure, size, growth or energy content of forage fish were observed to varying degrees among all these forage fish, none were able to fully mitigate adverse impacts of the heatwave, which likely included both top‐down and bottom‐up forcing. Notably, changes to the demographic structure of forage fish suggested size‐selective removals typical of top‐down regulation. At the same time, zooplankton community structure may have driven bottom‐up regulation as copepod community structure shifted towards smaller, warm‐water species, and euphausiid biomass was reduced owing to the loss of cold‐water species. Mediated by these impacts on the forage fish community, an unprecedented disruption of the normal pelagic food web was signaled by higher trophic level disruptions during 2015–2016, when seabirds, marine mammals, and groundfish experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortalities, and reproductive failures. Unlike decadal‐scale variability underlying ecosystem regime shifts, the heatwave appeared to temporarily overwhelm the ability of the forage fish community to buffer against changes imposed by warm water anomalies, thereby eliminating any ecological advantages that may have accrued from having a suite of coexisting forage species with differing life history compensations.

Alaska↗

Conservation genomics in the sagebrush sea: Population divergence, demographic history, and local adaptation in sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.)

Sage-grouse are two closely related iconic species of the North American West, with historically broad distributions across sagebrush-steppe habitat. Both species are dietary specialists on sagebrush during winter, with presumed adaptations to tolerate the high concentrations of toxic secondary metabolites that function as plant chemical defenses. Marked range contraction and declining population sizes since European settlement have motivated efforts to identify distinct population genetic variation, particularly that which might be associated with local genetic adaptation and dietary specialization of sage-grouse. We assembled a reference genome and performed whole-genome sequencing across sage-grouse from six populations, encompassing both species and including several populations on the periphery of the species ranges. Population genomic analyses reaffirmed genome-wide differentiation between greater and Gunnison sage-grouse, revealed pronounced intraspecific population structure, and highlighted important differentiation of a small isolated population of greater sage-grouse in the northwest of the range. Patterns of genome-wide differentiation were largely consistent with a hypothesized role of genetic drift due to limited gene flow among populations. Inferred ancient population demography suggested persistent declines in effective population sizes that have likely contributed to differentiation within and among species. Several genomic regions with SNPs exhibiting extreme population differentiation were associated with candidate genes linked to metabolism of xenobiotic compounds. In vitro activity of enzymes isolated from sage-grouse livers supported a role for these genes in detoxification of sagebrush, suggesting that the observed interpopulation variation may underlie important local dietary adaptations, warranting close consideration for conservation strategies that link sage-grouse to the chemistry of local sagebrush.

Genome Biology and Evolution↗

Hydrologic record extension of water-level data in the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), 1991-99

The real-time Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) has been established to support a variety of scientific and water management purposes. The expansiveness of the Everglades, limited number of gaging stations, and extreme sensitivity of the ecosystem to small changes in water depth have created a need for accurate water-level and water-depth maps. The EDEN water-surface elevation model uses data from approximately 240 gages in the Everglades to create daily continuous interpolations of the water-surface elevation and water depth for the freshwater portion of the Everglades from 2000 to the present (2014). These maps provide hydrologic data previously unavailable for assessing biological and ecological studies. Ecologists working in the Everglades expressed a need to the EDEN project team for daily EDEN water-level surfaces from 1990 to 1999. The additional 10 years of surfaces will provide ecologists and resource managers with two decades (1991–2011) of surfaces to analyze hydrologic dynamics. Before 2000, many of the EDEN gages used to generate water surfaces were not in operation. These datasets were extended to provide estimations of hydrologic time-series histories. The general approach to the record extension (hindcasts) was to (1) create a database of available data from 1990 to the present; (2) use dynamic cluster analysis to group stations with similar hydrologic behaviors for subareas of the Everglades with a large number of stations; (3) use results from the cluster analysis to select candidate explanatory variables; (4) develop linear regression or artificial neural network models to extend water-level records; and (5) evaluate record extensions by using model performance statistics and comparison of water-surface maps for similar hydrologic conditions for the hindcasted period (1991–99) and measured period (2000–11). To hindcast and fill data records, 214 empirical models were developed—189 are linear regression models and 25 are artificial neural network models. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for 163 of the models is greater than 0.80 and the median percent model error (root mean square error divided by the range of the measured data) is 5 percent. To evaluate the performance of the hindcast models as a group, contour maps of modeled water-level surfaces at 2-centimeter (cm) intervals were generated using the hindcasted data. The 2-cm contour maps were examined for selected days to verify that water surfaces from the EDEN model are consistent with the input data. The biweekly 2-cm contour maps did show a higher number of issues during days in 1990 as compared to days after 1990. May 1990 had the lowest water levels in the Everglades of the 21-year dataset used for the hindcasting study. To hindcast these record low conditions in 1990, many of the hindcast models would require large extrapolations beyond the range of the predictive quality of the models. For these reasons, it was decided to limit the hindcasted data to the period January 1, 1991, to December 31, 1999. Overall, the hindcasted and gap-filled data are assumed to provide reasonable estimates of station-specific water-level data for an extended historical period to inform research and natural resource management in the Everglades.

Florida↗

Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO 2 . However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.

California↗

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

Global Change Biology↗

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Great Lakes↗

Evaluating the piscicide rotenone as an option for eradication of invasive Mozambique tilapia in a Hawaiian brackish-water wetland complex

Mozambique tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus were recently discovered in ‘Aimakapā Fishpond, a 12-hectare brackish-water wetland complex in Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, on the Island of Hawai’i. As a possible eradication method, we evaluated rotenone, a natural piscicide used in fish management and the active ingredient in plants traditionally used by indigenous Hawaiians for capturing fish. To assess rotenone’s efficacy in killing tilapia and effects on non-target species, laboratory toxicity tests involved exposing organisms to various concentrations of liquid CFT Legumine (5% rotenone) in static trials of 48-h to 72-h duration. Test organisms included: Mozambique tilapia, non-native guppy Poecilia reticulata , the non-native odonate Rambur’s forktail Ischnura ramburii , native feeble shrimp Palaemon debilis , and native ‘ōpae’ula shrimp Halocaridina rubra . All organisms and water used in tests were obtained from ‘Aimakapā (12.6–12.7 ppt salinity), or, for H. rubra , an anchialine pool (15.0–15.2 ppt salinity). Survival analyses indicated CFT Legumine concentrations >3 ppm (>0.15 mg/L rotenone) achieved 100% mortality of tilapia and 93% of guppies within 24 h, with most tilapia killed by 6 h and most guppies by 2 h. Little or no mortality was observed among invertebrate exposed to 1 to 5 mg/L CFT Legumine: 0% mortality for ‘ōpae’ula shrimp, 4% for feeble shrimp; and 16% for odonate larvae. The 48 h LC50 values for Mozambique tilapia and guppy were 0.06 and 0.11 mg/L rotenone, respectively. Results demonstrate rotenone’s potential for non-native fish eradication in brackish-water habitats, with benefit of low mortality to certain macro-invertebrates. High rotenone tolerance displayed by ‘ōpae’ula shrimp is noteworthy. Invasive fish are common in anchialine pools, threatening existence of shrimp and other invertebrate fauna. Although rotenone’s effects on freshwater organisms have been well studied, our research represents one of only a few controlled laboratory experiments quantitatively assessing rotenone tolerance of brackish or marine fauna.

Hawaii↗

Cyclopoid and harpacticoid copepods of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Historical collections of cyclopoid and harpacticoid copepod crustaceans in the Great Lakes have mainly been based on samples taken with plankton nets in deeper waters (>5 m). Of the non-calanoid copepod species known from the Great Lakes, 58 or 64 live primarily on or in the sediments and rarely are collected in plankton samples. Because of their small size, they are rarely retained in the coarse sieves used to concentrate samples of benthic invertebrates. Thus, the abundance and distribution of most species of these two groups of copepods have never been adequately documented in the Great Lakes. We examined the stomach contents of small, bottom-feeding fishes such as slimy sculpin which feed on benthic copepods that live in deep, inaccessible rocky areas of the Great Lakes to collect some of the material. We also collected in shallow nearshore habitats, including wetlands. We present an annotated checklist of cyclopoid and harpacticoid copepods based on published records and our recent collections in the Great Lakes. We have added 14 species of cyclopoid copepods to the Great Lakes record, increasing the total to 30. Because we probably have accounted for most of the cyclopoid species, we provide a key to the identification of this group. We have added 19 species of harpacticoid copepods to the 15 previously known to the Great Lakes, and suspect that additional species remain to be discovered. In individual lakes, there were approximately as many species of cyclopoids as harpacticoids; the total number of species per lake ranged from 35 to 57. The most speciose genera were Bryocamptus (7), Canthocamptus (5), and Moraria (5) in the Harpacticoida, and Diacyclops (6) and Acanthocyclops (5) in the Cyclopoida. The origin of introduced species, our ability to classify copepod habitat, and the ecological significance of copepods are discussed.

Ohio Biological Survey Bulletin New Series↗

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Global Change Biology↗

Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) Program: Environmental contaminants and their effects on fish in the Mississippi River Basin

We collected, examined, and analyzed 1378 fish of 22 species from 47 sites in the Mississippi River basin (MRB) during 1995 and from a reference site in 1996. The sampling sites in the MRB represented National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program (NCBP) stations situated at key points on major rivers and National Water- Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) stations located on lower-order rivers and streams in the Eastern Iowa Basins (EIB) and Mississippi Embayment (MSE) Study Units. The reference site was the water supply system of the USGS-Leetown Science Center in rural Jefferson County, WV. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio; carp) and black basses (Micropterus spp.; bass), the targeted species, together represented 82% of the fish collected. Each fish was examined in the field for externally and internally visible gross lesions, selected organs were weighed to compute various ponderal and organo-somatic indices, and selected tissues and fluids were obtained and preserved for analysis of biomarkers. Fish health indicators included splenic macrophage aggregates, lysozyme activity, and hispathological analysis of liver, kidney, and other tissues. Reproductive biomarkers included analysis of plasma concentrations of vitellogenin (vtg) and the sex steroid hormones 17-estradiol (E2) and 11-ketotestosterone (11- kt); and the histological determination of percent oocyte atresia (in female fish) and gonadal stage. Hepatic ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity was also measured. Composite samples of whole fish from each station were grouped by species and gender and analyzed for persistent organochlorine and elemental contaminants and for dioxin-like activity (TCDD-EQ) using the H4IIE rat hepatoma cell bioassay. Organochlorine and inorganic contaminant concentrations in fish were generally low relative to historical levels at most sites, but remained present at concentrations representing threats to piscivorous wildlife in some locations. Toxaphene and DDT (mostly as p,p?-DDE) concentrations remained elevated in fish from the cottongrowing regions of the lower Mississippi valley, and were generally greater in the smaller streams draining agricultural areas (that is, in the MSE Study Unit) than at large river sites. Cyclodiene pesticide concentrations were also greatest in the EIB Study Unit and elsewhere in the corn-growing regions of the mid-MRB. Former point-sources of organochlorine pesticides also remained evident, especially in the Mississippi River near Memphis, TN. Consistent with previous findings, total PCB concentrations tended to be greatest (1-3 g/g) in the industrialized and urbanized Ohio River and Upper Mississippi sub-basins and at Memphis, TN, and were generally correlated with TCDD-EQ and EROD activity. Conversely, PCB concentrations were low (<0.1 g/g) in the more agricultural parts of the MRB. Concentrations of inorganic contaminants were also relatively low and stable or declining relative to past levels at most sites. Exceptions were Hg and Se; Hg concentrations were slightly elevated (>0.3 g/g) in bass from the Mississippi River at Memphis and several other sites and in carp from one MSE site. Concentrations of Se were also great enough to constitute a hazard to piscivorous wildlife (>0.6 g/g) at several MRB sites in the western parts of the MRB and were especially high (4-5 g/g) in fish from John Martin Reservoir, CO, where elevated concentrations were reported previously. Biomarker results indicated that fish from many stations had been exposed to contaminants, but at no sites did findings indicate exposure to high concentrations of toxic chemicals. Noteworthy among biomarker findings was that 73% of the male smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) from the Mississippi River at Lake City, MN (Lake Pepin) were intersex as indicated by the histological detection of ovotestes; and the combined EROD and H4IIE results indicated that fish from several rural sites in the

Mississippi River basin↗

The underlying causes of differential migration: Assumptions, hypotheses, and predictions

Mechanisms governing the migratory decisions of birds have long fascinated ecologists and sparked considerable debate. Identifying factors responsible for variation in migration distance, also known as differential migration, has been a popular approach to understanding the mechanisms underlying migratory behaviour more generally. However, research progress has been slowed by the continued testing of overlapping, non-mechanistic, and circular predictions among a small set of historically entrenched hypotheses. We highlight the body size hypothesis and suggest that the predictions commonly tested have impeded progress because body size relationships with migration distance are predictions made by several distinct hypotheses with contrasting mechanisms. The cost of migration itself has not been adequately accounted for in most hypotheses, and we propose two flight efficiency hypotheses with time- and energy-minimizing mechanisms that allow individuals to mitigate the risks inherent to longer migrations. We also advance two conceptual versions of the social dominance hypothesis based on two distinct underlying mechanisms related to distance minimization and food maximization that will help clarify the role of competition in driving migratory decisions. Overall, we describe and refine 12 mechanistic hypotheses proposed to explain differential migration (along with several other special-case hypotheses), seven of which have underlying mechanisms related to food limitation as past research has identified this to be an important driver of differential migration. We also thoroughly reviewed 145 publications to assess the amount of support for 10 critical assumptions underlying alternative hypotheses for differential migration in birds. Our review reveals that surprisingly few studies explicitly evaluate assumptions within a differential migration context. Generating and testing strong predictions and critical assumptions underlying mechanisms of alternative hypotheses will improve our ability to differentiate among these explanations of differential migration. Additionally, future intraspecific progress will be greatest if investigators continue to focus on mechanisms underlying variation in migration distance within rather than among demographic classes, as previous research has found differing mechanisms to be responsible for differential migration among demographic classes. Interspecifically, a thorough comparative analysis that seeks to explain variation in migration distance among species would broaden both our understanding of the mechanisms regulating current differential migration patterns and those that led to the evolution of migration more generally. Collectively, we provide a framework that, together with advances in animal-borne tracking and other technology, can be used to advance our understanding of the causes of differential migration distance, and migratory decisions more generally.

Biological Reviews↗