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USGS2016

Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

By various measures (drought area and intensity , climatic aridity index , and climatic water deficits ), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth ’ s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation . ‘Offline ’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century , despite an expected increase in global land precipitation . A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming , underlies the drying trends , but may be a methodological artefact . Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET for either an open-water surface or a reference crop ) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in climate models . Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2012

State of the Earth’s cryosphere at the beginning of the 21st century: Glaciers, global snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost and periglacial environments

This chapter is the tenth in a series of 11 book-length chapters, collectively referred to as “this volume,” in the series U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World. In the other 10 chapters, each of which concerns a specific glacierized region of Earth, the authors used remotely sensed images, primarily from the Landsat 1, 2, and 3 series of spacecraft, in order to analyze that glacierized region and to monitor changes in its glaciers. Landsat images, acquired primarily during the period 1972 through 1981, were used by an international team of glaciologists and other scientists to study the various glacierized regions and (or) to discuss related glaciological topics. In each glacierized region, the present distribution of glaciers within its geographic area is compared, wherever possible, with historical information about their past areal extent. The atlas provides an accurate regional inventory of the areal extent of glacier ice on our planet during the 1970s as part of an expanding international scientific effort to measure global environmental change on the Earth’s surface. However, this chapter differs from the other 10 in its discussion of observed changes in all four elements of the Earth’s cryosphere (glaciers, snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost) in the context of documented changes in all components of the Earth System. Human impact on the planet at the beginning of the 21st century is pervasive. The focus of Chapter A is on changes in the cryosphere and the importance of long-term monitoring by a variety of sensors carried on Earth-orbiting satellites or by a ground-based network of observatories in the case of permafrost. The chapter consists of five parts. The first part provides an introduction to the Earth System, including the interrelationships of the geosphere (cryosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere), the biosphere, climate processes, biogeochemical cycles, and the critically important hydrologic cycle, in which glacier ice is the second largest reservoir of water after the oceans. The second part assesses the state of glaciers in all of the glacierized regions of the planet, primarily as drawn in the other 10 chapters. It includes sections on ice cores and the climate record they contain, volumetric changes in glaciers, harnessing spaceborne sensors to measure changes in glaciers, and related topics. The third part summarizes trends in global snow cover. The fourth part summarizes long-term changes in area and thickness of floating ice, including polar sea ice and freshwater (lake and river) ice. The fifth part assesses the loss of permafrost and changes in periglacial environments at high latitudes and high altitudes.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone

Strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone are attributed to stick slip on the main thrust zone and steady aseismic slip on the remainder of the plate interface. This process can be described as a superposition of steady state subduction and a repetitive cycle of slip on the main thrust zone, consisting of steady normal slip at the plate convergence rate plus occasional thrust events that recover the accumulated normal slip. Because steady state subduction does not contribute to the deformation at the free surface, deformation observed there is completely equivalent to that produced by the slip cycle alone. The response to that slip is simply the response of a particular earth model to embedded dislocations. For a purely elastic earth model, the deformation cycle consists of a coseismic offset followed by a linear‐in‐time recovery to the initial value during the interval between earthquakes. For an elastic‐viscoelastic earth model (elastic lithosphere over a viscoelastic asthenosphere), the postearthquake recovery is not linear in time. Records of local uplift as a function of time indicate that the long‐term postseismic recovery is approximately linear, suggesting that elastic earth models are adequate to describe the deformation cycle. However, the deformation predicted for a simple elastic half‐space earth model does not reproduce the deformation observed along the subduction zones in Japan at all well if stick slip is restricted to the main thrust zone. As recognized earlier by Shimazaki, Seno, and Kato, the uplift profiles could be explained if stick slip were postulated to extend along the plate interface beyond the main thrust zone to a depth of perhaps 100 km, but independent evidence suggests that stick slip at such depths is unlikely.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1996

Damage and restoration of geodetic infrastructure caused by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

We seek to restore the integrity of the geodetic network in the San Fernando, Simi, Santa Clarita Valleys and in the northern Los Angeles Basin by remeasurement of the network and identification of BMs which experienced non-tectonic displacements associated with the Northridge earthquake. We then use the observed displacement of BMs in the network to portray or predict the permanent vertical and horizontal deformation associated with the 1994 Northridge earthquake throughout the area, including sites where we lack geodetic measurements. To accomplish this, we find the fault geometry and earthquake slip that are most compatible with the geodetic and independent seismic observations of the earthquake. We then use that fault model to predict the deformation everywhere at the earth's surface, both at locations where geodetic observations exist and also where they are absent. We compare displacements predicted for a large number of numerical models of the earthquake faulting to the coseismic displacements, treating the earthquake fault as a cut or discontinuity embedded in a stiff elastic solid. This comparison is made after non-tectonic deformation has been removed from the measured elevation changes. The fault slip produces strain in the medium and deforms the ground surface. The model compatible with seismic observations that best fits the geodetic data within their uncertainties is selected. The acceptable model fault bisects the mainshock focus, and the earthquake size , magnitude, is compatible with the earthquake size measured seismically. Our fault model was used to identify geodetic monuments on engineered structures that were anomalously displaced by the earthquake.

California↗

USGS2026

The use of fluorite geochemistry and machine learning to identify critical mineral systems

Fluorite (CaF 2 ) is a potential pathfinder to critical mineral and rare earth element (REE) deposits but its application has been limited to a narrow range of mineralization types. I show that fluorite is a robust recorder of mineralization fertility by applying statistical and machine-learning methods to a new global fluorite geochemical database. Distinct median rare earth and trace element patterns are observed among deposit types and genetic environments. Fluorite associated with carbonatites and REE deposits are relatively enriched in Sr and have minimal Eu anomalies. These characteristics define new bivariate discrimination diagrams that correctly identify 78% of carbonatite-related fluorite and 88% of fluorite from REE deposits. Random forest classifiers were developed for a wide range of mineralization types and genetic settings. Trained solely on rare earth element patterns, these models achieve accuracies of 77–79%. Higher classification accuracies (up to 88–96%) are obtained when including elements such as Sr, highlighting the significance of trace elements for optimal fluorite classification. The recognition of diagnostic fluorite compositional fingerprints, particularly in REE-fertile systems, underscores its potential as a pathfinder and indicator for critical mineral exploration in F-bearing environments.

Mineralium Deposita↗

USGS2023

Shallow fault slip of the 2020 M5.1 Sparta, North Carolina, earthquake

The 2020 M 5.1 Sparta, North Carolina, earthquake is the largest in the eastern United States since the 2011 M 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and produced a ∼2.5‐km‐long surface rupture, unusual for an event of this magnitude. A geological field study conducted soon after the event indicates oblique slip along a east‐southeast‐trending fault with a consistently observed thrust component. My analysis of regional seismic waveforms, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Global Positioning System survey data yields a compact shallow rupture extending from Earth’s surface down‐dip to the southwest over a ∼3 km fault length. The inferred kinematic rupture is primarily toward the up‐dip and eastward along‐strike directions and has predominantly thrust motion in the west, transitioning to roughly equal thrust and left‐lateral strike‐slip motion in the east. No normal faulting component, as proposed in an earlier geophysical study, is necessary to explain the data. The prevalence of only dip‐slip motions observed at Earth’s surface may demand slip partitioning between dip slip and lateral motions at depth.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Most Earth-surface calcites precipitate out of isotopic equilibrium

Oxygen-isotope thermometry played a critical role in the rise of modern geochemistry and remains extensively used in (bio-)geoscience. Its theoretical foundations rest on the assumption that 18 O/ 16 O partitioning among water and carbonate minerals primarily reflects thermodynamic equilibrium. However, after decades of research, there is no consensus on the true equilibrium 18 O/ 16 O fractionation between calcite and water ( 18 α cc/w ). Here, we constrain the equilibrium relations linking temperature, 18 α cc/w , and clumped isotopes ( Δ 47 ) based on the composition of extremely slow-growing calcites from Devils Hole and Laghetto Basso (Corchia Cave). Equilibrium 18 α cc/w values are systematically ~1.5‰ greater than those in biogenic and synthetic calcite traditionally considered to approach oxygen-isotope equilibrium. We further demonstrate that subtle disequilibria also affect Δ 47 in biogenic calcite. These observations provide evidence that most Earth-surface calcites fail to achieve isotopic equilibrium, highlighting the need to improve our quantitative understanding of non-equilibrium isotope fractionation effects instead of relying on phenomenological calibrations.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2005

Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence

Temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes (foreshock-mainshock-aftershock) followed by relative quiescence (stress shadow) are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries. A global seismic-moment release history, based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of Pacheco and Sykes (1992), illustrates similar behavior for Earth as a whole. Although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum-Pacific region, an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the Pacific plate shows a very similar pattern. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952-1964 at M ??? 9.0 is highly significant (4% random probability) as is the clustering of the events of M ??? 8.6 (0.2% random probability) during 1950-1965. We have extended the Pacheco and Sykes (1992) catalog from 1989 through 2001 using Harvard moment centroid data. Immediately after the 1950-1965 cluster, significant quiescence at and above M 8.4 begins and continues until 2001 (0.5% random probability). In alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended Pacheco-Sykes catalog, the clustering of M ??? 9 persists at a significant level. These observations indicate that, for great earthquakes, Earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system. A very-large-scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and/or stress transfer is implied. There are several candidates, but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Gravity data from the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona

Observations of very small changes of Earth’s gravitational field (time-lapse gravity) provide a direct, non-invasive method for measuring changes in aquifer storage change. An existing network of gravity stations in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed was revised in 2014 to better understand the spatial distribution of changes in aquifer storage, especially with relation to ephemeral channel recharge and a groundwater cone of depression associated with pumping in the greater Sierra Vista area. In addition, the network was extended to provide baseline data for possible future enhanced-recharge projects. This report (1) summarizes changes to the Sierra Vista Subwatershed regional time-lapse gravity network with respect to station locations and (2) presents 2014 and 2015 gravity measurements and gravity values at each station. A prior gravity network, established between 2000 and 2005, was revised in 2014 to cover a larger number of stations over a smaller geographic area in order to decrease measurement and interpolation uncertainty. The network currently consists of 59 gravity stations, including 14 absolute-gravity stations. Following above-average rainfall during summer 2014, gravity increased at all but one of the absolute-gravity stations that were observed in both June 2014 and January 2015. This increase in gravity indicates increased groundwater storage in the aquifer and (or) unsaturated zone as a result of rainfall and infiltration.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Modern Mars' geomorphological activity, driven by wind, frost, and gravity

Extensive evidence of landform-scale martian geomorphic changes has been acquired in the last decade, and the number and range of examples of surface activity have increased as more high-resolution imagery has been acquired. Within the present-day Mars climate, wind and frost/ice are the dominant drivers, resulting in large avalanches of material down icy, rocky, or sandy slopes; sediment transport leading to many scales of aeolian bedforms and erosion; pits of various forms and patterned ground; and substrate material carved out from under subliming ice slabs. Due to the ability to collect correlated observations of surface activity and new landforms with relevant environmental conditions with spacecraft on or around Mars, studies of martian geomorphologic activity are uniquely positioned to directly test surface-atmosphere interaction and landform formation/evolution models outside of Earth. In this paper, we outline currently observed and interpreted surface activity occurring within the modern Mars environment, and tie this activity to wind, seasonal surface CO2 frost/ice, sublimation of subsurface water ice, and/or gravity drivers. Open questions regarding these processes are outlined, and then measurements needed for answering these questions are identified. In the final sections, we discuss how many of these martian processes and landforms may provide useful analogs for conditions and processes active on other planetary surfaces, with an emphasis on those that stretch the bounds of terrestrial-based models or that lack terrestrial analogs. In these ways, modern Mars presents a natural and powerful comparative planetology base case for studies of Solar System surface processes, beyond or instead of Earth.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2000

Compositional analyses of small lunar pyroclastic deposits using Clementine multispectral data

Clementine ultraviolet-visible (UVVIS) data are used to examine the compositions of 18 pyroclastic deposits (15 small, three large) at 13 sites on the Moon. Compositional variations among pyroclastic deposits largely result from differing amounts of new basaltic (or juvenile) material and reworked local material entrained in their ejecta upon eruption. Characterization of pyroclastic deposit compositions allows us to understand the mechanisms of lunar explosive volcanism. Evidence for compositional differences between small pyroclastic deposits at a single site is observed at Atlas crater. At all sites, compositional variation among the small pyroclastic deposits is consistent with earlier classification based on Earth-based spectra: three compositional groups can be observed, and the trend of increasing mafic absorption band strength from Group 1 to Group 2 to Group 3 is noted. As redefined here, Group 1 deposits include those of Alphonsus West, Alphonsus Southeast, Alphonsus Northeast 2, Atlas South, Crüger, Franklin, Grimaldi, Lavoisier, Oppenheimer, Orientale, and Riccioli. Group 1 deposits resemble lunar highlands, with weak mafic bands and relatively high UV/VIS ratios. Group 2 deposits include those of Alphonsus Northeast 1, Atlas North, Eastern Frigoris East and West, and Aristarchus Plateau; Group 2 deposits are similar to mature lunar maria, with moderate mafic band depths and intermediate UV/VIS ratios. The single Group 3 deposit, J. Herschel, has a relatively strong mafic band and a low UV/VIS ratio, and olivine is a likely juvenile component. Two of the deposits in these groups, Orientale and Aristarchus, are large pyroclastic deposits. The third large pyroclastic deposit, Apollo 17/Taurus Littrow, has a very weak mafic band and a high UV/VIS ratio and it does not belong to any of the compositional groups for small pyroclastic deposits. The observed compositional variations indicate that highland and mare materials are also present in many large and small pyroclastic deposits, and they suggest that volcanic glasses or spheres may not be dominant juvenile components in all large pyroclastic deposits.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2018

Patterns, pace and processes of water-quality variability: Examples from a long-studied estuary

Environmental time series have rich information content that is invaluable for measuring and understanding changes over time and guiding policies to manage change. I extracted information from measurements of 10 water‐quality constituents in upper San Francisco Bay from 1975 to 2016, one of the longest observational records in a U.S. estuary. Changes were detected at every time scale captured by monthly sampling. Long‐term trends included increased ammonium (+53%), nitrate + nitrate (+50%), silicate (+14%), Secchi depth (+42%), and decreased chlorophyll a (Chl a ) (−74%) and suspended particulate matter (−45%). Changes at the decadal scale included abrupt shifts (Chl a , nitrate + nitrite) and oscillations between shorter trends of increase and decrease (Secchi depth, phosphate). Long‐term trends were not expressed equally across all seasons, and seasonal patterns of change varied across constituents. These examples illustrate key features of environmental variability at the land–sea interface: (1) water‐quality components change continually at time scales from months to decades; (2) patterns of seasonal, multiyear, and multidecadal change are complex and vary across constituents; (3) primary drivers of change are freshwater inflow, the master regulator of estuarine dynamics, and human activities such as river damming, water diversions, wastewater discharge, environmental policies, and species introductions; (4) extracting the full information content of time series requires multiple analyses, each revealing a different layer of insight into how changes develop over time; (5) water‐quality variability is nonstationary, so future changes cannot be forecast reliably; (6) repeated observation is an essential method of Earth system science with applications in the design and performance measures of environmental policies.

California↗

USGS2011

A wavelength-dependent visible and infrared spectrophotometric function for the Moon based on ROLO data

The USGS's Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) dedicated ground‐based lunar calibration project obtained photometric observations of the Moon over the spectral range attainable from Earth (0.347–2.39 μ m) and over solar phase angles of 1.55°–97°. From these observations, we derived empirical lunar surface solar phase functions for both the highlands and maria that can be used for a wide range of applications. The functions can be used to correct for the effects of viewing geometry to produce lunar mosaics, spectra, and quick‐look products for future lunar missions and ground‐based observations. Our methodology can be used for a wide range of objects for which multiply scattered radiation is not significant, including all but the very brightest asteroids and moons.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2019

Sampling the volatile-rich transition zone beneath Bermuda

Intraplate magmatic provinces found away from active plate boundaries, provide direct sampling of the Earth’s mantle composition and heterogeneity. Observed chemical heterogeneities in the mantle are commonly attributed to recycling during subduction1-3, which allows for the addition of volatiles and incompatible elements into the mantle. Although many intraplate volcanoes sample deep mantle reservoirs, possibly at the core-mantle boundary4,5, not all intraplate volcanoes are deep rooted6 and reservoirs in other shallower boundary layers likely participate in magma generation. Here we present new evidence that suggests that Bermuda sampled a previously unknown mantle domain, characterized by silica under-saturated melts that have significant enrichments in incompatible elements and volatiles, and a unique, extreme isotopic signature. Bermuda records the most radiogenic 206Pb/204Pb isotopes ever documented in an ocean basin (19.9-21.7), coupled with low 207Pb/204Pb (15.5-15.6) and relatively invariant Sr, Nd, and Hf isotopes, suggesting that this source must be <650 Ma. We interpret the Bermuda source as a new, transient mantle reservoir that resulted from recycling and storage of incompatible elements and volatiles7-10 in the transition zone, aided by the fractionation of Pb by minerals that are only stable in this boundary layer such as K-Hollandite11-12. Recent recycling and storage of material into the transition zone suggests that this reservoir can only be found in the Atlantic Ocean. Our geodynamic models suggest that this layer was sampled by disturbances related to mantle flow. Seismic studies have shown that recycled materials can be stored in the transition zone13. For the first time we show geochemical evidence that this storage is key in the generation of extreme isotopic domains previously thought to be related only to deep recycling.

Nature↗

USGS2015

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2010

Time-dependent seismic tomography

Of methods for measuring temporal changes in seismic-wave speeds in the Earth, seismic tomography is among those that offer the highest spatial resolution. 3-D tomographic methods are commonly applied in this context by inverting seismic wave arrival time data sets from different epochs independently and assuming that differences in the derived structures represent real temporal variations. This assumption is dangerous because the results of independent inversions would differ even if the structure in the Earth did not change, due to observational errors and differences in the seismic ray distributions. The latter effect may be especially severe when data sets include earthquake swarms or aftershock sequences, and may produce the appearance of correlation between structural changes and seismicity when the wave speeds are actually temporally invariant. A better approach, which makes it possible to assess what changes are truly required by the data, is to invert multiple data sets simultaneously, minimizing the difference between models for different epochs as well as the rms arrival-time residuals. This problem leads, in the case of two epochs, to a system of normal equations whose order is twice as great as for a single epoch. The direct solution of this system would require twice as much memory and four times as much computational effort as would independent inversions. We present an algorithm, tomo4d, that takes advantage of the structure and sparseness of the system to obtain the solution with essentially no more effort than independent inversions require. No claim to original US government works Journal compilation ?? 2010 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2024

Preface to focus section on new frontiers and advances in global seismology

Over the last century, many of the fundamental advances in our understanding of the solid Earth have been underpinned by seismic observations recorded on long‐running networks of globally distributed seismic instruments (e.g., Agnew et al. , 1976; Romanowicz et al. , 1984; Hanka and Kind, 1994; Peterson and Hutt, 2014; Ringler et al. , 2022a). During this time, seismic data quality and the speed of dissemination have improved substantially from early analog paper records to digital, very broadband data transmitted in near‐real time (Steim, 2015) and rapidly archived in online data repositories with...

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS1997

Water-level changes in response to the 20 December 1994 earthquake near Parkfield, California

We analyze co-seismic changes of water level in nine wells near Parkfield, California, produced by an M D 4.7 earthquake on 20 December 1994 in order to test the hypothesis that co-seismic water-level changes are proportional to co-seismic volumetric strain. For each well, a quantitative relationship between water level and volumetric strain can be inferred from water-level fluctuations due to earth tides and barometric pressure. The observed co-seismic water-level changes, which ranged from −16 to +34 cm, can therefore be compared with volumetric strain recorded by borehole strainmeters or calculated using a dislocation model of the earthquake. We were able to find a dislocation model of the earthquake rupture that predicts volumetric expansion at five of the six wells where water level fell co-seismically, as well as volumetric contraction at one of the two sites where water level rose. Strain predicted by the dislocation model is in good quantitative agreement with the strain inferred from water-level changes observed at four of the well sites, as well as strain recorded by three borehole strainmeters. Water-level changes at two more well sites correspond to strain somewhat greater than predicted by the model but agree in sign with model-calculated strains. At three of the well sites, however, water-level changes took place that cannot be explained as responses to co-seismic volumetric strain for any plausible dislocation model of the earthquake rupture. At two of these sites, one in and one near the San Andreas fault, large water-level drops are probably influenced by co-seismic fault creep. The third site has a history of large water-level rises in response to earthquakes at distances up to several hundred kilometers. This data set shows that co-seismic water-level changes in many wells are proportional to volumetric strain but that other wells exist in which different mechanisms dominate co-seismic response.

California↗