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Modeling erosion of ice-rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr −1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Alaska↗

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗

Occurrence of fecal-indicator bacteria and protocols for identification of fecal-contamination sources in selected reaches of the West Branch Brandywine Creek, Chester County, Pennsylvania

The presence of fecal-indicator bacteria indicates the potential presence of pathogens originating from the fecal matter of warm-blooded animals. These pathogens are responsible for numerous human diseases ranging from common diarrhea to meningitis and polio. The detection of fecal-indicator bacteria and interpretation of the resultant data are, therefore, of great importance to water-resource managers. Current (2005) techniques used to assess fecal contamination within the fluvial environment primarily assess samples collected from the water column, either as grab samples or as depth- and (or) width-integrated samples. However, current research indicates approximately 99 percent of all bacteria within nature exist as attached, or sessile, bacteria. Because of this condition, most current techniques for the detection of fecal contamination, which utilize bacteria, assess only about 1 percent of the total bacteria within the fluvial system and are, therefore, problematic. Evaluation of the environmental factors affecting the occurrence and distribution of bacteria within the fluvial system, as well as the evaluation and modification of alternative approaches that effectively quantify the larger population of sessile bacteria within fluvial sediments, will present water-resource managers with more effective tools to assess, prevent, and (or) eliminate sources of fecal contamination within pristine and impaired watersheds. Two stream reaches on the West Branch Brandywine Creek in the Coatesville, Pa., region were studied between September 2002 and August 2003. The effects of sediment particle size, climatic conditions, aquatic growth, environmental chemistry, impervious surfaces, sediment and soil filtration, and dams on observed bacteria concentrations were evaluated. Alternative approaches were assessed to better detect geographic sources of fecal contamination including the use of turbidity as a surrogate for bacteria, the modification and implementation of sandbag bacteria samplers, and the use of optical brighteners. For the purposes of this report, sources of bacteria were defined as geographic locations where elevated concentrations of bacteria are observed within, or expected to enter, the main branch of the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Biologic sources (for example, waterfowl) were noted where applicable; however, no specific study of biologic sources (such as bacterial source tracking) was conducted. Data indicated that specific bacterial populations within fluvial sediments could be related to specific particle-size ranges. This relation is likely the result of the reduced porosity and permeability associated with finer sediments and the ability of specific bacteria to tolerate particular environments. Escherichia coli (E. coli) showed a higher median concentration (2,160 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.125 to 0.5-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges, and enterococcus bacteria showed a higher median concentration (61,830 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in the 0.062 to 0.25-millimeter size range of natural sediments than in other ranges. There were insufficient data to assess the particle-size relation to fecal coliform bacteria and (or) fecal streptococcus bacteria. Climatic conditions were shown to affect bacteria concentrations in both the water column and fluvial sediments. Drought conditions in 2002 resulted in lower overall bacteria concentrations than the more typically wet year of 2003. E. coli concentrations in fluvial sediment along the Coatesville study reach in 2002 had a median concentration of 92 colonies per gram of saturated sediment; in 2003, the median concentration had risen to 4,752 colonies per gram of saturated sediment. Symbiotic relations between bacteria and aquatic growth were likely responsible for increased bacteria concentrations observed within an impoundment area on the Coatesville study reach. This reach showed evidence of elevated aquatic growth and sharp increases in E. coli concentrations from upstream to downstream through the impoundment area in both 2002 and 2003. In 2003, E. coli concentrations within the waters column increased from 940 colonies per 100 milliliters upstream to 6,000 colonies per 100 milliliters at the dam crest. Given that these bacteria likely resulted from natural bacterial regrowth, the use of E. coli as an indicator of fecal contamination was severely impaired. Variable environmental conditions along the West Branch Brandywine Creek made the common field-chemical parameters of specific conductance, temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen ineffective and (or) impossible to use for the determination of inputs of fecal contamination. Extreme variations in chemical gradients commonly were related to the urban/industrial signature of the watershed. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2002, specific-conductance values exceeding 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter observed in effluent from a local steel mill. This effluent raised the specific conductance within the West Branch Brandywine from just above 200 microsiemens per centimeter upstream from the outfall to just below 500 microsiemens per centimeter downstream from the outfall. These chemical gradients also, likely, had an effect on the initial colonization of bacteria, the formation of biofilms, and the persistence of certain types of bacteria along the study reach. Data collected in 2003 indicated that nutrients increased during both base-flow and stormflow conditions along the Coatesville study reach. For example, during base-flow sampling in 2003, 20 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. The largest contributors to this base-flow nutrient load were likely two wastewater-treatment facilities adjacent to the study reach. During stormflow sampling in 2003, 480 pounds of phosphorus was shown to enter the West Branch Brandywine Creek along the Coatesville study reach. Data, along with other research, indicated the largest contributor to this stormflow nutrient load was likely remobilized sediment originating from a large dam impoundment. These elevated nutrient concentrations were considered sufficient to promote accelerated aquatic growth along the reach. Data collected in 2003 showed that wastewater constituents entered the West Branch Brandywine Creek largely from urban storm-sewer systems. Samples from the primary storm sewer for the city of Coatesville had detections for 20 of 69 wastewater constituents. These constituents included both strong and weak indicators of fecal contamination and generally indicated the storm-sewer system along the Coatesville study reach was a likely source of fecal-indicator bacteria and fecal contamination under base-flow conditions. By comparison, 5 constituents were detected in samples from the upstream end of the reach, and 10 constituents were detected in samples from the downstream end of the reach. During stormflow, numbers of detections were similar along the entire length of the study reach-five in samples from the upstream end, eight in samples from the center of the reach, and seven in samples from the downstream end of the reach. These data indicate that point sources (such as culverts and pipes, septic systems, and wastewater-treatment facilities) are not likely the origin of bacteria contamination during stormflow. The bacteria concentrations observed during stormflow events probably result from remobilized sessile bacteria stored within fluvial sediments. In this case, these bacteria should not be considered indicators of current fecal contamination. Impervious surfaces were found to increase bacteria concentrations along the West Branch Brandywine Creek because contaminated runoff from impervious areas generally flows into, and is concentrated within, the confines of the local storm-sewer system. During 2002, storm-sewer outfalls draining impervious areas were associated with all major locations of elevated bacterial concentrations (greater than 1,200 colonies per gram of saturated sediment) in fluvial sediments. During 2003, wetter conditions and overall bacteria concentrations higher than in 2002 resulted in point sources of bacterial contamination becoming less pronounced; however, the storm-sewer system, draining adjacent impervious areas, was still observed to be the primary source of bacteria along the reach. Where stormwater and (or) other runoff from these areas was allowed to infiltrate and (or) flow through wetland and riparian buffers, bacteria concentrations were not observed to be elevated above background levels commonly observed throughout similar areas of the same reach. Two run-of-the-river dams along the Coatesville study reach were evaluated for their effects on observed bacterial concentrations. These dams were shown to have greater or lesser effects on bacterial concentrations depending on the size of the structure and the capacity of the structure to impede flows. The smaller upstream dam had an approximate height of 3 feet and showed little observed effect on measured turbidity values; these data indicated that the dam did not effectively impede the flow of water or sediment within the West Branch Brandywine Creek. Consequently, this small dam did not show any observed effect on bacterial concentrations either upstream or downstream of the structure. The larger dam, near the middle of the reach, had an approximate height of 20 feet and showed greater effects on both turbidity and bacteria concentrations. The capacity of the larger dam to impede flows, combined with nutrients entering the reach, resulted in increased biologic activity throughout the impoundment area. Within this larger impoundment, enterococcus bacteria populations were observed to decrease sharply and E. coli bacteria populations were observed to increase sharply as flow approached the dam crest. All bacteria levels were then observed to drop to background levels, in both the water column and fluvial sediment, immediately downstream from the dam crest. Additional study is required to determine the cause for this rapid die off. Turbidity was assessed as a potential surrogate for E. coli bacteria. Regression analysis indicated higher turbidity levels usually can indicate higher concentrations of bacteria (R2 = 0.67), but the relation was too sporadic on the West Branch Brandywine Creek to use turbidity as a surrogate for estimated bacteria concentrations. Evaluation of data from individual base-flow and stormflow events resulted in variable and generally poor statistical relations between E. coli bacteria and turbidity (R2 values ranged from 0.02 to 0.94). Sandbag samplers were used in 2003 to determine their suitability for the assessment of fecal contamination. Sandbag samplers rely on the ability of bacteria to attach to surfaces and use the larger sessile bacteria populations instead of the more commonly used planktonic bacteria populations. E. coli bacteria concentrations observed in the sandbag samplers, after 1 week in place, were similar to those found within natural sediments collected concurrently. Enterococcus bacteria concentrations within the same sandbag samplers were not similar, and were generally lower, than those observed within the natural sediments. This discrepancy was likely because sand within the samplers was sieved to a size that was likely too coarse for enterococcus bacteria to persist. Optical-brightener samplers were installed along with each sandbag sampler. Optical brighteners are additives used in common household detergents; therefore, detection of optical brighteners, along with elevated fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations, strongly indicates a link to humans. Positive results for optical brighteners were detected only at the outfalls of two sewage-treatment facilities; because of treatment of the effluent from these facilities, these samples did not have elevated bacteria concentrations. The lack of additional positive results was largely because this method is not sensitive to low concentrations of optical brighteners.

Pennsylvania↗

A precipitation-runoff model for the analysis of the effects of water withdrawals and land-use change on streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island

The 36.1-square-mile Usquepaug–Queen River Basin in south-central Rhode Island is an important water resource. Streamflow records indicate that withdrawals may have diminished flows enough to affect aquatic habitat. Concern over the effect of withdrawals on streamflow and aquatic habitat prompted the development of a Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model to evaluate the water-management alternatives and land-use change in the basin. Climate, streamflow, and water-use data were collected to support the model development. A logistic-regression equation was developed for long-term simulations to predict the likelihood of irrigation, the primary water use in the basin, from antecedent potential evapotranspiration and precipitation for generating irrigation demands. The HSPF model represented the basin by 13 pervious-area and 2 impervious-area land-use segments and 20 stream reaches. The model was calibrated to the period January 1, 2000 to September 30, 2001, at three continuous streamflow-gaging stations that monitor flow from 10, 54, and 100 percent of the basin drainage area. Hydrographs and flow-duration curves of observed and simulated discharges, along with statistics compiled for various model-fit metrics, indicate a satisfactory model performance. The calibrated HSPF model was modified to evaluate streamflow (1) under no withdrawals to streamflow under current (2000–01) withdrawal conditions under long-term (1960–2001) climatic conditions, (2) under withdrawals by the former Ladd School water-supply wells, and (3) under fully developed land use. The effects of converting from direct-stream withdrawals to ground-water withdrawals were evaluated outside of the HSPF model by use of the STRMDEPL program, which calculates the time delayed response of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow depletion. Simulated effects of current withdrawals relative to no withdrawals indicate about a 20-percent decrease in the lowest mean daily streamflows at the basin outlet, but withdrawals have little effect on flows that are exceeded less than about 90 percent of the time. Tests of alternative model structures to evaluate model uncertainty indicate that the lowest mean daily flows ranged between 3 and 5 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) without withdrawals and 2.2 to 4 ft3/s with withdrawals. Changes in the minimum daily streamflows are more pronounced, however; at the upstream streamflow-gaging station, a minimum daily flow of 0.2 ft3/s was sustained without withdrawals, but simulations with withdrawals indicate that the reach would stop flowing part of a day about 5 percent of the time. The effect on streamflow of potential ground-water withdrawals of 0.20, 0.90, and 1.78 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) at the former Ladd School near the central part of the basin were evaluated. The lowest daily mean flows in model reach 3, the main stem of the Queen River closest to the pumped wells, decreased by about 50 percent for withdrawals of 0.20 Mgal/d (from about 0.4 to 0.2 ft3/s) in comparison to current withdrawals. Reach 3 would occasionally stop flowing during part of the day at the 0.20-Mgal/d withdrawal rate because of diurnal fluctuation in streamflow. The higher withdrawal rates (0.90 and 1.78 Mgal/d) would cause reach 3 to stop flowing about 10 to 20 percent of the time, but the effects of pumping rapidly diminished downstream because of tributary inflows. Simulation results indicate little change in the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low flows at the 0.20 Mgal/d pumping rate, but at the 1.78 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing for nearly a 7-day period every year and for a 30-day period about every other year. At the 0.90 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing about every other year for a 7-day period and about once every 5 years for a 30-day period. Land-use change was simulated by converting model hydrologic-response units (HRUs) representing undeveloped areas to HRUs representing developed areas on the basis of development suitability and town zoning. About 55 percent of the basin is suitable for development; this area would accommodate about 4,300 new low-density residential homes under current zoning. Increases in storm volume and peak flows, and decreases in base flow, typically associated with urbanization, were not evident in buildout simulations because the effective impervious area was assumed to increase by only 2 percent. Under fully developed conditions, withdrawals from self-supply wells were estimated to reach 1.2 Mgal/d. Potential increases in water withdrawals for a fully developed basin have only a minor impact on the main stem streamflow, but the effects of urbanization could be more pronounced in localized areas where development is concentrated. Streamflow-depletion rates were calculated for varying distances of a pumped irrigation well from a stream. For the irrigation rates and aquifer conditions tested, streamflow depletion, relative to the pumping rate, decreases rapidly as the pumped well was moved away from the stream. Streamflow depletion, relative to the peak withdrawal rate, decreased by about 60, 80, and 90 percent by locating the pumped well 500, 1,000, and 1,500 feet from the stream, respectively.

Rhode Island↗

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—Comparison of four (2018, 2020, 2021, 2022) spring high-resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This report summarizes results from boat-based, high-resolution water-quality mapping surveys completed before, during, and after upgrades to the EchoWater Resource Recovery Facility (EchoWater Facility), the regional wastewater facility for the City of Sacramento and surrounding areas, near Elk Grove, California. Surveys were completed in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) in spring (May or June) 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022. In each survey, a suite of in situ sensors were used to continuously (one measurement per second) measure water-quality conditions, nutrients, phytoplankton abundance, and species composition. In addition to in situ data collection, discrete water samples were collected about every 2 miles while underway for determination of phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate concentration. The boat stopped at about 30 locations to collect discrete samples for a suite of additional analytes, including phytoplankton enumeration. The four surveys represent snapshots in time across different phases of the EchoWater Facility Biological Nutrient Reduction (BNR) upgrade. The May 2018 survey represents conditions before the upgrade. The second survey (June 2020) represents conditions after implementation of the Nitrifying Sidestream Treatment. The third survey (May 2021) was completed immediately after the completion of the BNR upgrade and represents a transitional period, and the final survey (May 2022) represents post-upgrade conditions. Relevant hydrologic and climatic context such as water-year type, X 2 position (the distance from the Golden Gate Bridge to the point upstream where bottom salinity is 2 parts per thousand; Jassby and others, 1995), water export to import ratio, and management actions like the Delta Cross Channel gate operations are presented for each survey so they may be considered in comparisons among surveys. Differences in water-quality parameters, like turbidity, temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) improve understanding of nutrient cycling and phytoplankton dynamics. Because the Delta is a complex system, we divided the study area into hydrologic zones to better examine general trends and obtain a broadscale view of differences among the 4 study years. Results are presented for each survey and parameter using box plots to compare the different hydrologic zones. We also present each parameter using contour maps by survey to display gradients across the system. The most evident change to water quality in the Delta across surveys is related to the EchoWater Facility BNR upgrade, which included nitrification and denitrification processes. Through this upgrade, effluent ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations were reduced by more than 95 percent (from about 2,000 micromolars [μM] to below the reporting limit of 35 μM), and nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations increased from near zero to about 500 μM; therefore, the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; the sum of NH 4 + and NO 3 − ) in the effluent was reduced by about 75 percent between May 2018 and May 2022. The BNR upgrade resulted in a reduction in NH 4 + concentrations in aquatic habitats immediately below the facility, designated as the “north Delta tidal transition zone” (Bergamaschi and others, 2024), from about 30 μM pre-upgrade to near zero during the 2022 spring survey, whereas effluent NO 3 − increased from median concentrations of about 7 μM to about 15 μM. Because of the reduced effluent nitrogen loads and variability in Sacramento River nitrogen loads from upstream sources, DIN concentrations in the north Delta tidal transition zone decreased from a median of 53.3 μM in 2018 to 35.3 μM in 2020, 20.7 μM in 2021, and 11.3 μM in 2022 during the spring surveys. The changes in DIN concentration and form observed in the north Delta tidal transition zone after the EchoWater Facility upgrade extended downstream but were rapidly altered by hydrologic mixing, biogeochemical processes, and other nutrient source inputs. Most of the Delta indicated near-zero concentrations of NH 4 + 1 year after the completion of the EchoWater Facility upgrades represented by the 2022 survey. Exceptions to this finding were observed in the San Joaquin River near Stockton and in Suisun Bay, indicating there are NH 4 + inputs to these locations from other sources (for example, Stockton Regional Wastewater Control Facility and Central Contra Costs Sanitary District wastewater treatment plants or agricultural and urban runoff). Although there was an increase in NO 3 − concentrations in the north Delta tidal transition zone after the upgrade, increases in NO 3 − in other zones were not apparent, presumably because nitrification of effluent derived ammonium was no longer a source of NO 3 − . Concentrations of DIN in many Delta zones were lower in 2022 compared to 2018 and 2020, with concentrations near or below what is considered potentially nitrogen limiting conditions for phytoplankton growth in the North Delta tidal transition zone and the Cache Slough complex channel system. Unrelated to the EchoWater Facility upgrade, NO 3 − and therefore DIN concentrations increased in the San Joaquin River near Stockton and in adjacent water bodies by survey date (likely associated with increasing drought conditions). The Mokelumne River had low DIN concentrations, except in 2018 when the Delta Cross Channel was open, which allowed nutrient-rich Sacramento River water to flow into this section of the river. Data from these surveys also support the hypothesis that nutrient drawdown during phytoplankton blooms may create localized nitrogen limiting conditions. The BNR upgrade resulted in lower effluent phosphate (PO 4 3− ) concentrations, which lowered PO 4 3− concentrations in some zones of the Delta during the four spring surveys; however, PO 4 3− concentrations throughout the Delta remained above 0.3 μM, indicating that primary productivity was not limited by phosphorous availability. DIN and PO 4 3− decreased after the upgrade in many areas of the Delta, and the DIN to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIN:DIP) ratio remained similar to pre-upgrade conditions and was often below the Redfield Ratio of 16, indicating nitrogen is more likely to limit phytoplankton growth than phosphorous. Inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the EchoWater Facility are a minor source of this constituent to the Delta, so the upgrade had little to no effect on DOC concentrations across the Delta. Because phytoplankton abundance and species composition in the Delta are shaped by multiple factors other than nutrients (for example, light availability, temperature, salinity, and predation), it is important to consider these factors (as well as long-term monitoring) in addition to the EchoWater Facility upgrade. Although phytoplankton populations were low across much of the Delta during the spring surveys, several localized phytoplankton blooms (defined here as greater than 15 micrograms per liter [μg/L] of chlorophyll) provide insight into conditions that may favor the growth of beneficial and harmful species.

Callifornia↗

Ground water resources of southeastern Oakland County, Michigan

The area covered by this report comprises a square which measures three townships on a side and enclose 318 square miles in southeastern Oakland County. The investigation of the ground-water resources of this area was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Detroit Metropolitan Area Regional Planning Commission, the Michigan Department of Conservation, and the Michigan Water Resources Commission. In 1950 the population of this nine-township area exceeded 341,000, or more than 86 percent of the total population of Oakland County. This county ranks third in the state in number of industrial establishments and workers and is fifteenth in agricultural importance. Its numerous lakes and rolling uplands contribute to its top rank in the state in the number of recreational enterprises in rural or suburban areas. The climate is moderately humid. The average annual precipitation is 30 inches and the mean air temperature is 47.2° F. Snowfall averages 38 inches in the November-April interval. The growing season averages 151 days. The regional land surface slopes from northwest to southeast and has a total relief of 360 feet. Pitted outwash plains and morainal hills that are more than 1,000 feet above sea level in the northwest corner of the area give way southeastward to a sequence of terminal moraines and intervening till plains in the middle part. These give way to the broad lake plains that cover the southeastern third of the area. The area lies on the southeast edge of the Michigan Basin and the bedrock is composed of northwest dipping strata of the Devonian and Mississippian systems. The Antrim shale, of Lake Devonian and early Mississippian age, is the oldest formation cropping out beneath the mantle of glacial Berea sandstone, and Sunbury shale overlie the Antrim and are overlain by the Coldwater shale, their areas of outcrop beneath the drift lying successively farther northwest. These formations are of early Mississippian age. Throughout the area the bedrock is covered by glacial drift which ranges in thickness from 25 to more than 350 feet. The drift increases in thickness from southeast to northwest, but considerable relief on the underlying bedrock surface greatly modifies this trend. Extensive moraines, till plains, lake plains, and gravel outwash plains cover the area. In the northwestern third of the area an extensive upland of gravel plains is dotted with lakes ranging from a few feet to more than 100 feet in depth. Precipitation is the perennial source of all water in this area, whether on the surface of underground. The average annual rainfall on the nine-townships is equivalent to a continuous supply of 450 m.g.d. or 9 times the combined annual withdrawal from all wells in the area. About 53 percent of the area is drained by the Clinton River, 44 percent by the River Rouge, and the remaining 3 percent by the Huron River. Less than one-third of the annual precipitation reappears as surface discharge from the watersheds of this area. About two-thirds of the annual precipitation on the area is lost by evaporation from water and land surfaces and by transpirations from vegetative cover. A substantial part of this large annual water loss is from the many lakes and other exposed water surfaces and from contiguous lands where the depth to the water table is slight. Average annual water losses by evapotranspiration are equivalent to about 280 m.g.d. or nearly 6 times the combined withdrawal from all ground-water supplies in the area. The principal aquifers are the alluvial deposits bordering streams and the buried outwash deposits which represent alluvial fills in preglacial or interglacial stream channels. Intensive well developments in the urban areas have greatly lowered ground-water levels in the buried outwash deposits, have brought localized problems of declining well yield, and have induced migration of mineralized waters from the underlying consolidated formations. During 1952, withdrawals of ground water in the nine township area averages about 50 m.g.d., most of this quantity being pumped from municipal wells. This annual pumpage was distributed as follows: 60 percent in Pontiac and environs; 20 percent in Birmingham, Royal Oak and Troy Township; and the remaining 20 percent throughout the suburban and rural areas.

Michigan↗

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Pacifica, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Pacifica map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of the San Francisco Peninsula about 10 kilometers south of the Golden Gate. The map area extends from Daly City, through Pacifica, to the small coastal community of Montara. Much of the coastal zone is managed by either the State of California or local governments, including Thornton Beach State Park, Mussel Rock Park, Pacifica State Beach, Gray Whale Cove State Beach, and Montara State Beach. The major structure in the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates, the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, cuts through the map area, crossing the shoreline near Mussel Rock before continuing offshore. The epicenter of the great 1906 California earthquake is located on the offshore part of the San Andreas Fault Zone a few kilometers north of the map area. The map area is located at the northwest end of the Santa Cruz Mountains, much of which has been uplifted in the last 400,000 years. Southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone, this uplift has resulted in a highly variable coastal morphology characterized by long, narrow beaches bounded by steep cliffs or marine terraces, small pocket beaches surrounded by rocky promontories, and steep, narrow coastal watersheds. Geologic units mapped along the coast include sedimentary, volcanic, and metamorphic rocks of the Franciscan Complex; Cretaceous granitic rocks; Tertiary sedimentary rocks; and Quaternary coastal marine terraces, deep-seated and shallow landslides, and beach and sand dune deposits, all of which contribute sediment to the coastal zone. In contrast to the more rural coastal zone to the south, the highly urbanized coastal zone north of Mussel Rock and the San Andreas Fault Zone is characterized by a narrow beach bounded by steep, 50- to 120-m-high cliffs made up of sand, silt, and clay of the Pliocene and Pleistocene Merced Formation, the source of numerous landslides. Two large landslides along “Northridge bluff” in 2003 and 2007 had estimated volumes of 305,800 to 382,300 m 3 and 120,800 m 3 , respectively. Coastal landslides also are an issue to the south between Mussel Rock and Mori Point, even as bluffs diminish in height and pocket beaches transition to a more continuous strand bounded by Quaternary-age dunes and low-lying marine terraces. Mori Point, a coastal promontory in Pacifica underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Complex, rises abruptly to a height of 90 m from the shoreline. Pocket beaches characterize the shoreline from Mori Point south to Shelter Cove, the largest of which, Pacifica State Beach, is at the mouth of San Pedro Creek. The coastal zone south of Pacifica, which stretches from Shelter Cove to Montara and includes Point San Pedro and Devils Slide, lies at the northwest end of San Pedro Mountain (underlain largely by early Tertiary sedimentary rocks) and Montara Mountain (underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks). Elevations at Montara Mountain exceed 500 m just 4 km from the shoreline, and steep cliffs along the coast are as high as 275 m. This rugged terrain results in numerous rocky promontories, small pocket beaches, and large coastal landslides. Slope failures along Devils Slide are notorious for closing California Highway 1, creating such a large and persistent problem that the California Department of Transportation has bypassed this coastal section by tunneling through San Pedro Mountain; the tunnel was completed and the new section of highway opened in 2013. Coastal relief diminishes at Montara in the southernmost part of the map area, where the shoreline is bounded by 10- to 20-m-high marine terraces. Throughout the year, this part of the coast is exposed to the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months, having wave heights that range from 2 to 10 m at offshore buoys and wave periods that range from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3–3 m) but similarly long wave periods (10–25 s). Local wind waves are most common from October to April, whereas northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short wave periods (3–10 s). Unlike many other parts of the California coast where sediment is supplied primarily from river and (or) stream runoff, sediment supply to the offshore along this part of northern California is a complex mixture of (1) sand transported from the coast north of the Golden Gate, (2) sediment transported to the coast through the San Francisco Bay via the Golden Gate and then dispersed over the adjacent ebb-tide delta, and (3) varying volumes of sediment eroded from adjacent steep coastal bluffs caused by wave-induced landslides and other erosional events. Additionally, since the 1980s, coastal erosion south of the Golden Gate has increased substantially between Ocean Beach (on the west coast of San Francisco, about 5 km north of the map area) and Point San Pedro. The combined sediment load is transported southward along the coast by the generally north-to-south alongshore current, which develops in response to the energetic winter-wave climate associated with the north Pacific swell. Overall, beaches in the map area have a long-term erosional trend, except near Mussel Rock where a long-term accretionary trend may reflect increased sediment supply from landslides. Beach-front riprap armoring and retaining walls are used locally to protect the shoreline from seasonal storm waves, most notably between Mussel Rock and Mori Point. The continental shelf in the map area is about 40 km wide, with water depths at the shelf break that range from about 80 to 120 m. Within California’s State Waters, the midshelf to inner shelf areas are characterized by a relatively flat, shallow (water depths of as much as 44 m) seafloor that dips gently (about 0.2° to 0.3°) westward. The seafloor is composed primarily of unconsolidated Holocene sediment (marine deposits), as well as some nearshore bedrock outcrops that consist primarily of rocks of the Tertiary Purisima Formation and also Cretaceous plutonic rocks (granite or granodiorite).

California↗

Ecosystem history of southern and central Biscayne Bay: Summary report on sediment core analyses

During the last century, the environs of Biscayne Bay have been greatly affected by anthropogenic alteration through urbanization of the Miami/Dade County area. The sources, timing, delivery, and quality of freshwater flow into the Bay have been changed by construction of a complex canal system that controls movement of water throughout south Florida. Changes in shoreline and sub-aquatic vegetation and marine organisms have been observed and changes in water delivery are believed to be the cause. Current restoration goals are attempting to restore natural flow of fresh water into Biscayne and Florida Bays and to restore the natural fauna and flora, but first we need to determine pre-alteration baseline conditions in order to establish targets and performance measures for restoration. This research is part of an ongoing study designed to address the needs of the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Project (BBCW) of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). By establishing the natural patterns of temporal change in salinity, water quality, vegetation, and benthic fauna in Biscayne Bay and the nearby wetlands over the last 100- 500 years the USGS, in collaboration with our partners, will provide the data necessary to set realistic targets to achieve the BBCW Project goals. Six cores from three sites in Biscayne Bay were collected in April 2002 for multidisciplinary multi-proxy analyses. This report details the results of these analyses and compares the 2002 cores to cores collected in 1997. The following are our significant findings to date: The salinity of central Biscayne Bay has become increasingly marine and increasingly stable over the last 100 years. At No Name Bank, prior to approximately 1915, the inter-decadal and decadal salinity fluctuations appear to have been greater than after 1915 when salinities stabilized at that site. Continental shelf/open marine influence on the sites has increased during the 20th century. There is no indication of inter-decadal salinity extremes or periods of hypersalinity. Freshwater and mesohaline salinities have had a minor influence on No Name bank throughout the time of deposition. At Featherbed Bank, the influence is reduced to mesohaline salinities. Card Bank has experienced relatively large swings in salinity over multi-decadal and centennial timescales, compared to central Biscayne Bay, but marine influence at the site has increased over the last century. Indications of regional scale patterns have been found, especially in the shell chemistry data and the pollen assemblages. These regional patterns indicate that the changes are not site specific and may not be limited to Biscayne Bay. Sub-aquatic vegetation has undergone bay-wide patterns of change over the last 200-500 years, which includes expansion prior to 1900 and declines during the last century in central Biscayne Bay. Thalassia appears to have increased at all three core sites sometime between 1550 and 1750 AD. A decline in Thalassia appears to have occurred after 1950 at No Name Bank and slightly earlier in the 20th century at Featherbed Bank. Card Bank does not appear to have experienced any declines in vegetation on an inter-decadal scale during the 20th century. Molluscan faunal abundance and diversity have undergone significant changes in central Biscayne Bay. Indicators of increased organic-rich sediments at No Name occur between 1869 to 1888 and between the 1930’s to 1975. These changes may correlate to human activities (settlement, population growth). These findings represent a first step towards the project’s goal to reconstruct the history of Biscayne Bay and they provide us with a working model to be tested at other sites. It is clear from our findings that Biscayne Bay has been a dynamic environment over the last 500 years, with natural changes occurring in salinity and benthic habitats. However, several significant changes have occurred in the 20th century: 1) increased stabilization of marine salinities; 2) declines in seagrass in central Biscayne Bay; 3) dramatic changes in molluscan abundance and diversity in central Biscayne Bay. The question remains - how do we better differentiate natural cycles of change from anthropogenic change within these observed trends? The preliminary implications from our research are that changes in salinity and benthic habitats have occurred naturally in Biscayne Bay on inter-decadal to centennial scales, perhaps due to climatic changes, changes in sea level, bank migrations, or a combination of factors. However, further work needs to be done to determine which components of change in the 20th century are human-induced and which are natural. By examining the historical records preserved in the sediments of Biscayne Bay, we can provide restoration trust agencies with the information necessary to set realistic targets and performance measures for Biscayne Bay.

Florida↗

Documentation of the Santa Clara Valley regional ground-water/surface-water flow model, Santa Clara Valley, California

The Santa Clara Valley is a long, narrow trough extending about 35 miles southeast from the southern end of San Francisco Bay where the regional alluvial-aquifer system has been a major source of water. Intensive agricultural and urban development throughout the 20th century and related ground-water development resulted in ground-water-level declines of more than 200 feet and land subsidence of as much as 12.7 feet between the early 1900s and the mid-1960s. Since the 1960s, Santa Clara Valley Water District has imported surface water to meet growing demands and reduce dependence on ground-water supplies. This importation of water has resulted in a sustained recovery of the ground-water flow system. To help support effective management of the ground-water resources, a regional ground-water/surface-water flow model was developed. This model simulates the flow of ground water and surface water, changes in ground-water storage, and related effects such as land subsidence. A numerical ground-water/surface-water flow model of the Santa Clara Valley subbasin of the Santa Clara Valley was developed as part of a cooperative investigation with the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The model better defines the geohydrologic framework of the regional flow system and better delineates the supply and demand components that affect the inflows to and outflows from the regional ground-water flow system. Development of the model includes revisions to the previous ground-water flow model that upgraded the temporal and spatial discretization, added source-specific inflows and outflows, simulated additional flow features such as land subsidence and multi-aquifer wellbore flow, and extended the period of simulation through September 1999. The transient-state model was calibrated to historical surface-water and ground-water data for the period 1970–99 and to historical subsidence for the period 1983–99. The regional ground-water flow system consists of multiple aquifers that are grouped into upper- and lower-aquifer systems. Ground-water inflow occurs as natural recharge in the form of streamflow infiltration and areal infiltration of precipitation along stream channels, artificial recharge from infiltration of imported water at recharge ponds and along selected stream channels, and leakage along selected transmission pipelines. Ground-water outflow occurs as evapotranspiration, stream base flow, discharge through pumpage from wells, and subsurface flow to the San Francisco Bay. The geohydrologic framework of the regional ground-water flow system was represented as six model layers. The hydraulic properties were redefined on the basis of cell-based lithologic properties that were delineated in terms of aggregate thicknesses of coarse-grained, fine-grained, and mixed textural categories. The regional aquifer systems also are dissected by several laterally extensive faults that may form at least partial barriers to the lateral flow of ground water. The spatial extent of the ground-water flow model was extended and refined to cover the entire Santa Clara Valley, including the Evergreen subregion. The temporal discretization was refined and the period of simulation was extended to 1970–99. The model was upgraded to MODFLOW-2000 (MF2K) and was calibrated to fit historical ground-water levels, streamflow, and land subsidence for the period 1970–99. The revised model slightly overestimates measured water levels with an root-mean-square error of -7.34 feet. The streamflow generally shows a good match on gaged creeks and rivers for flows greater than 1.2 cubic feet per second. The revised model also fits the measured deformation at the borehole extensometer site located near San Jose within 16 to 27 percent and the extensometer site near Sunnyvale within 3 percent of the maximum measured seasonal deformation for the deepest extensometers. The total ground-water inflow and outflow of about 225,500 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the period 1970–89 and of about 205,300 acre-feet per year for the period for the period 1970–99 is comparable with that of the previous model, 207,200 acre-ft/yr for the period 1970–89. Overall the simulated net change in storage increased by about 189,500 acre-ft/yr for the entire period of simulation, which represents about one and a half years of the 1970–99 average pumping. The changes in ground-water flow and storage generally reflect the major climate cycles and the additional importation of water by Santa Clara Valley Water District, with the basin in recovery since the drought of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The average total recharge rate, from natural and artificial recharge and from streamflow infiltration for the revised model for the entire simulation period 1970–99, was about 157,100 acre-ft/yr, which represents about 59 percent of the inflow to the ground-water flow system. The average rate of artificial recharge of about 77,600 acre-ft/yr represents about 30 percent of the inflow to the ground-water flow system. The average pumpage for the entire 29.75-year simulation period is about 133,400 acre-ft/yr and represents about 69 percent of the outflow from the ground-water flow system. Most of the simulated recharge infiltrates and flows through the uppermost layers (i.e. model layers 1 and 3) of the aquifer system. Most of the water that flows to the deeper model layers is occurring through wellbores, with wellbore flow representing 19 percent of the total ground-water inflow between model layers.

California↗

Preliminary synthesis and assessment of environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed, Arizona

A 3-year study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of the available modeling tools for characterizing environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed of central Arizona, describe riparian vegetation throughout the watershed, and estimate sediment mobilization in the river. Existing data on fish and macroinvertebrates were analyzed in relation to basin characteristics, flow regimes, and microhabitat, and a pilot study was conducted that sampled fish and macroinvertebrates and the microhabitats in which they were found. The sampling for the pilot study took place at five different locations in the middle Verde River watershed. This report presents the results of this 3-year study. The Northern Arizona Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was found to be capable of predicting long-term changes caused by alteration of regional recharge (such as may result from climate variability) and groundwater pumping in gaining, losing, and dry reaches of the major streams in the middle Verde River watershed. Over the period 1910 to 2006, the model simulated an increase in dry reaches, a small increase in reaches losing discharge to the groundwater aquifer, and a concurrent decrease in reaches gaining discharge from groundwater. Although evaluations of the suitability of using the NARGFM and Basin Characteristic Model to characterize various streamflow intervals showed that smallerscale basin monthly runoff could be estimated adequately at locations of interest, monthly stream-flow estimates were found unsatisfactory for determining environmental flows. Orthoimagery and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data were used to quantify stream and riparian vegetation properties related to biotic habitat. The relative abundance of riparian vegetation varied along the main channel of the Verde River. As would be expected, more upland plant species and fewer lowland species were found in the upper-middle section compared to the lower-middle section, and vice-versa. Vegetation changes within the upper-middle and lower-middle reaches are related to differences in climate and hydrology. In general, the riparian vegetation of the middle Verde River watershed is that of a healthy ecosystem’s mixed age, mixed patch structure, likely a result of the mostly unaltered disturbance regime. The frequency of in-river hydrogeomorphic features (pool, riffle, run) varied along the middle Verde River channel. There was a greater abundance of riffle habitat in the upper-middle reach; the lower-middle reach included more pool habitat. The Oak Creek tributary was more homogenous in geomorphic stream habitat composition than West Clear Creek, where runs dominated the upper reaches and pools dominated many of the lower reaches. On the basis of the period of record and discharges recorded at 15-minute intervals, five flows were found to reach the gravel-transport threshold. Sediment mobilization computed with flows averaged over daily time steps yielded just three flows that reached the gravel-transport threshold, and monthly averaged flows yielded none. In the middle Verde River watershed, 15-minute data should be used when possible to evaluate sediment transport in the river system. Data from more than 300 fish surveys conducted from 1992 to 2011 were analyzed using two schemes, one that divided the river into five reaches based on basin characteristics, and a second that divided the river into five reaches based on degree of flow alteration (specifically, diversions). Fish community metrics and assemblage data were used to analyze patterns of species composition and abundance in the two approaches. Overall, native and non-native species were regularly interacting and probably competing for similar resources. Fish abundances were also analyzed in response to floods and other flow metrics. Although the data are limited, native fish abundances increased more rapidly than non-native fish abundances in response to large floods. The basin-characteristic reach analysis showed native fish in greater abundance in the upper-middle reaches of the Verde River watershed and generally decreasing with downstream distance. The median relative abundance of native fish decreased by 50 percent from reach 1 to reach 5. Using the reach scheme based on degree of flow alteration, nondiverted reaches were found to have a greater abundance of native fish than diverted reaches. In heavily diverted reaches, non-native species outnumbered native species. Fish metrics and stream-flow metrics for the 30, 90, and 365-day periods before collection were computed and the results analyzed statistically. Only abundance of all fish species was associated with the 30-day flow metrics. The 90-day flow metrics were generally positively associated with fish metrics, whereas the 365-day flow metrics had more negative correlations. In particular, significant relations were found between fish metrics and the magnitude and frequency of high flows, including maximum monthly flow, median annual number of high-flow events, and median annual maximum streamflow. Native sucker (Catostomidae) populations tended to decrease in periods of extended base flow, and fish in the non-native sunfish family (Centrarchidae) decreased in periods of flashy, high magnitude flows. A pilot study surveyed fish at five locations in the upper part of the middle Verde River watershed as a means to measure microhabitat availability and quantify native and non-native fish use of that available microhabitat. Results indicated that native and non-native species exhibit some clear differences in microhabitat use. Although at least some native and non-native fish were found in each velocity, depth, and substrate category, preferential microhabitat use was common. On a percentage basis, non-native species had a strong preference for slow-moving and deeper water with silt and sand substrate, with a secondary preference for faster moving and very shallow water and a coarse gravel substrate. Native species showed a general preference for somewhat faster, moderate depth water over coarse gravel and had no clear secondary preference. Macroinvertebrate-variables index period, high-flow year, and collection location (upper-middle Verde River, lowermiddle Verde River, or Verde River tributaries) were found to be important explanatory variables in differentiating among community metrics. Overall richness (number of unique taxa), Shannon’s diversity index, and the percent of the most dominant taxa were all highly correlated, but their response to each macroinvertebrate variable was different. The percentage of mayfly (order Ephemeroptera) taxa was significantly higher in Oak Creek and the upper-middle and lower-middle Verde River reaches, locations which have higher flows and more urbanization than other reaches. When community metrics were related to hydrologic metrics, caddisfly (order Trichoptera) populations appeared to increase and mayfly populations to decrease in response to less flashy and more stable streamflows. Conversely, caddisfly populations appeared to decrease and mayfly populations to increase in response to greater flow variability. Six locations along the Verde River were sampled for macroinvertebrates as part of a pilot study associated with this report—(1) below Granite Creek, (2) near Campbell Ranch, (3) at the U.S. Geological Survey Paulden gage, (4) at the Perkinsville Bridge, (5) at the USGS Clarkdale gage, and (6) near the Reitz Ranch property. A nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination of macroinvertebrate assemblages showed that the Verde River below Granite Creek site was different from the five other sites and that the Perkinsville Bridge and near Reitz Ranch samples had similar community structure. The near Campbell Ranch and Paulden gage locations had similar microhabitat characteristics, with the exception of riparian cover, yet the assemblage structure was very different. The different community composition at Verde River below Granite Creek was likely due to it having the smallest substrate sizes, lowest velocities, shallowest depths, and most riparian cover of the six sites.

Arizona↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗

Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), analyzed streamflow trends and streamflow-related variables through 2017 in seven important water-supply basins to provide information that can help water managers with the USACE and river authorities make future water management decisions. The primary purpose of this report is to document trends in long-term streamflow data at 114 selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations and 36 simulated reservoir-inflow stations in 7 river basins primarily in Texas: Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity. In this report, trends were considered statistically significant if their p -values were less than or equal to 0.05 ( p -value ≤0.05). Streamflow data selected for temporal trend analyses included annual minimum streamflow, annual peak streamflow, and streamflow volume. Precipitation, air temperature, and groundwater-level-elevation data were analyzed for trends that may help to explain changes observed in the streamflow statistics. Basins were divided into sections along county lines for precipitation analyses. Streamflow volumes were analyzed for associations with potential flood storage. The potential flood storage, defined as the difference between maximum storage and normal storage, was computed for each dam from the National Inventory of Dams database and accumulated over time based on the completion date of the dam. Precipitation and air temperature trends were analyzed for each of the eight climate divisions (High Plains, Trans-Pecos, Low Rolling Hills, Edwards Plateau, North Central Texas, South Central Texas, East Texas, and Upper Coast). Results of precipitation trend analyses indicated moderate upward trends in the Upper Coast and East Texas Climate Divisions analyzed on an annual time step from 1900 through 2017. These two climate divisions are in the eastern and southeastern parts of the State, and they receive more mean annual precipitation (45.88 and 46.09 inches, respectively) than the other climate divisions. The results of air temperature analyses indicated upward trends in annual mean air temperature within all climate divisions, with a mean slope of 0.02 degree Fahrenheit per year, or 1 degree every 50 years. Within the Brazos River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated that precipitation amounts are most likely increasing in the lower and middle sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow and in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume were indicated at 7 of the 15 stations in the upper sections of the basin. The lower sections of the basin had mostly downward trends in annual minimum streamflow, whereas upward trends in annual minimum streamflow were indicated in the upper sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were indicated at many of the stations in the upper sections of the basin. At the same seven stations in the upper sections of the basin where there were downward trends in annual streamflow, there were also downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. The data from the same seven stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 13,006,394 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1900 and 2010 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Brazos River Basin. Within the Colorado River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated no trends in the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow were indicated at 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin, whereas no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the lower section of the basin, one station that was operated as a continuous streamflow-gaging station through 2017 had a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow, and another station (operated through 2007) had an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow. In the upper sections of the basin, data from seven stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from six stations indicated downward trends. Data from 18 stations in the upper sections of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Thirteen of the 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin with data that indicated downward trends in annual streamflow also have data that indicated downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. Data from the same 13 stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 7,193,147 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1891 and 2014 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Colorado River Basin. Within the Big Cypress Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on annual, seasonal, and monthly time steps indicated almost no trends in the basin as defined in this report. However, the annual precipitation p -value only slightly exceeded the p -value threshold for a statistically significant trend. Given the upward trend in precipitation in the East Texas Climate Division, which includes the Big Cypress Basin, and the low p -value for annual precipitation within the basin, precipitation in the basin may be increasing over time. Two annual streamflow trends, one upward and one downward, were in the upper parts of the basin. Data from USGS streamflow-gaging station 07346000 Big Cypress Bayou near Jefferson, Texas, indicated an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow and a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. The station is immediately downstream from Lake O’ the Pines; presumably, minimums have increased because of regulated releases, and annual peaks have decreased because of storage from the lake for flood control. Despite the known addition of 2,737,154 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1898 and 2011 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Big Cypress Basin, except for within the drainage area for the farthest upstream station on the main stem downstream from Mount Pleasant, Texas. Within the Guadalupe River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated an upward trend in the lower section of the basin, but no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the upper section of the basin, data from 1 of the 13 stations indicated an upward trend in annual streamflow. Data from 6 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated a trend in annual minimum streamflow with 4 upward and 2 downward trends. Data from 2 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 2,016,534 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1849 and 2013 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Guadalupe River Basin. Within the Neches River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in the basin. None of the data from stations analyzed in the Neches River Basin indicated annual trends in streamflow despite upward trends in annual precipitation within the basin. Data from 9 of the 19 stations analyzed in the basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Data from one of the simulated-inflow stations indicated a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow into Sam Rayburn Reservoir. Data from two stations indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one small subbasin indicated an upward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 4,839,609 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1888 and 2008 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Neches River Basin. Within the Sulphur River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated a moderate upward trend within the basin. Data from only one of the stations, the simulated inflow to Jim Chapman Lake, indicated an annual upward trend in streamflow despite an upward trend in annual precipitation throughout the basin. Data from three of the six stations in the Sulphur River Basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from one of the six stations indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 6,933,361 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1904 and 2006 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Sulphur River Basin. Within the Trinity River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in most sections of the basin. Data from 8 of the 36 stations analyzed for trends in annual streamflow indicated upward trends, and all 8 stations are in the upper sections of the basin. None of the data from stations in the lower sections of the basin indicated trends in annual streamflow. Data from 16 of the 36 stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Upward trends in annual minimum streamflow could be the result of managed reservoir releases in combination with wastewater treatment plant releases in the large Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in the upper sections of the basin. All the trends in annual peak streamflow were in the sections of the basin that include the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Data from two stations, one USGS streamflow-gaging station and one simulated-inflow station, indicated upward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one streamflow-gaging station indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Of the basins included in this study, the Trinity River Basin has the second largest amount of potential flood storage of 8,947,349 acre-feet from dams added between 1890 and 2013. Eleven stations in the Trinity River Basin had positive associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume, indicating that annual streamflow increases as potential flood storage increases. Data from 7 of the 11 stations also indicated upward trends in annual streamflow. The positive associations may be the result of increases in minimum streamflow, which could be the result of any combination of managed reservoir releases, wastewater treatment plant releases, or increased runoff from urbanized areas, particularly in the urbanized area of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

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Potential reductions of street solids and phosphorus in urban watersheds from street cleaning, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2009-11

Material accumulating and washing off urban street surfaces and ultimately into stormwater drainage systems represents a substantial nonpoint source of solids, phosphorus, and other constituent loading to waterways in urban areas. Cost and lack of usable space limit the type and number of structural stormwater source controls available to municipalities and other public managers. Non-structural source controls such as street cleaning are commonly used by cities and towns for construction, maintenance and aesthetics, and may reduce contaminant loading to waterways. Effectiveness of street cleaning is highly variable and potential improvements to water quality are not fully understood. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts, and initiated a study to better understand the physical and chemical nature of the organic and inorganic solid material on street surfaces, evaluate the performance of a street cleaner at removing street solids, and make use of the Source Loading and Management Model (SLAMM) to estimate potential reductions in solid and phosphorus loading to the lower Charles River from various street-cleaning technologies and frequencies. Average yield of material on streets collected between May and December 2010, was determined to be about 740 pounds per curb-mile on streets in multifamily land use and about 522 pounds per curb-mile on commercial land-use streets. At the end-of-winter in March 2011, about 2,609 and 4,788 pounds per curb-mile on average were collected from streets in multifamily and commercial land-use types, respectively. About 86 percent of the total street-solid yield from multifamily and commercial land-use streets was greater than or equal to 0.125 millimeters in diameter (or very fine sand). Observations of street-solid distribution across the entire street width indicated that as much as 96 percent of total solids resided within 9 feet of the curb. Median accumulation rates of street solids and median washoff of street solids after rainstorms on multifamily and commercial land-use streets were also similar at about 33 and 22 pounds per curb-mile per day, and 35 and 40 percent, respectively. Results indicate that solids on the streets tested in Cambridge, Mass., can recover to pre-rainstorm yields within 1 to 3 days after washoff. The finer grain-size fractions tended to be more readily washed from the roadway surfaces during rainstorms. Street solids in the coarsest grain-size fraction on multifamily streets indicated an average net increase following rainstorms and are likely attributed to debris run-on from trees, lawns, and other plantings commonly found in residential areas. In seven experiments between May and December 2010, the median removal efficiency of solids from street surfaces following a single pass by a regenerative-air street cleaner was about 82 percent on study sites in the multifamily land-use streets and about 78 percent on the commercial land-use streets. Median street-solid removal efficiency increased with increasing grain size. This type of regenerative-air street cleaner left a median residual street-solid load on the street surface of about 100 pounds per curb-mile. Median concentrations of organic carbon and total phosphorus (P) on multifamily streets were about 35 and 29 percent greater, respectively, than those found on commercial streets. The median total mass of organic carbon and total P in street solids on multifamily streets was 68 and 75 percent greater, respectively, than those found on commercial streets. More than 87 percent of the mass of total P was determined to be in solids greater than or equal to 0.125 millimeters in diameter for both land-use types. The median total accumulation rate for total P on multifamily streets was about 5 times greater than on commercial streets. Total P accumulation in the medium grain-size fraction was nearly the same for streets within both land-use types at 0.004 pounds per curb-mile per day. Accumulation rates within the coarsest and finest grain-size fractions on multifamily streets were about 11 and 82 times greater than those on the commercial streets. Median washoff of total P was 58 and 48 percent from streets in multifamily and commercial land-use types, respectively, and generally increased with decreasing grain size. Total P median reductions resulting from a single pass of a regenerative-air street cleaner on streets in multifamily and commercial land-use types were about 82 and 62 percent, respectively, and were similar in terms of grain size between both land-use types. A Source Loading and Management Model for Microsoft Windows (WinSLAMM) was applied to a 21.8 acre subcatchment in Cambridge, Mass. The subcatchment area consists of mostly commercial and multifamily land-use types to evaluate the potential reductions of total and particulate solids, and P attributed to street cleaning. Rainwater runoff from rooftops represented between 20 and 50 percent of the total basin runoff. Street surfaces only accounted for about 20 percent of the total basin runoff. Monthly applications of mechanical-brush and vacuum-assisted street cleaners within the subcatchment as defined by SLAMM for areas with long-term (24-hour) on-street parking and monthly parking controls using five average climatic years resulted in total solid reductions of about 3 and 5 percent, respectively. Simulating the regenerative-air street cleaner tested as part of this study resulted in total solid reductions of about 16 percent. Increasing street cleaning frequency to three times weekly increased total solids removal for mechanical-brush, vacuum-assisted, and regenerative-air street cleaners to about 6, 14, and 19 percent, respectively. Monthly applications of mechanical-brush, vacuum-assisted, and regenerative-air street cleaners within the subcatchment resulted in total P reductions of about 1, 3, and 8 percent, respectively. A street cleaning frequency of three times each week for each of the three street-cleaner types increased total P removal to about 3, 7, and 9 percent, respectively.

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