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The breeding season and movement ecology of male white‐tailed deer in southwest Wisconsin

White-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ; hereafter, deer) have been widely studied regarding their breeding ecology and responses to hunting pressures. However, variations in defining the breeding season—its duration and timing—across studies have created uncertainty about whether regional differences in deer breeding ecology stem from ecological factors or methodological inconsistencies. This study aims to clarify the peak breeding season timing and the movement patterns of males during this period, particularly in relation to hunting seasons. Understanding how age and the timing of hunting seasons impact movement and breeding behaviors is important for wildlife managers, as these factors can affect harvest success. This study took place in southwest Wisconsin, using GPS data collected from 188 collared male deer between 15 October and 1 December from 2017 to 2020. Based on generalized linear mixed models, 2-year-old males exhibited higher hourly movement rates than other ages, and the opening weekend of the firearm hunting season had no significant effect on movement rates. In contrast, the variance in daily movement rate differed significantly between yearlings and older ages, with males 3 years and older displaying the highest variance. This suggests that older males may alternate more frequently between high-movement mate searching and lower-movement mate tending, potentially enhancing reproductive success. Similarly, 2-year-old males had larger daily ranges than both older and younger ages. Changepoint analysis of daily movement rates determined that the peak breeding season occurred between 23 October and 12 November, with little variation among ages and alternative metrics. Our findings indicate that male movement rates and ranges can reflect deer reproductive efforts and vary by age, which has important implications for reproductive success and disease transmission risk.

Wisconsin

Microplastics undergo fragmentation during pressurized membrane filtration

Low-micrometer microplastics (<10 μm) have been detected in drinking water, driving growing interest in using pressure-driven membrane filtration to remove these particles and ensure drinking water safety. However, little attention is paid to the fate of microplastics concentrated in the filtration byproduct. In this study, using well-defined polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) microspheres as model particles, we observed microplastic fragmentation during nanofiltration and the subsequent release of smaller fragments. After operating for 3 h at 20 bar, 67.9 ± 8.0% of the PS spheres in the concentrate, based on particles counted in selected fields of view, were transformed into fractured particles. The characteristic Raman band signals of microplastics were significantly weakened after fragmentation, leading to detection challenges. To address this, a data processing algorithm was developed to identify PS fragments as small as 1 μm. Preliminary statistical analysis reveals that within the tested pressure range, operation time has a stronger influence on fragmentation than pressure magnitude alone and that fragmentation is further governed by the intrinsic mechanical properties of the tested model polymers. This work provides direct evidence that pressure-driven membrane processes induce microplastic fragmentation and highlights the environmental risks associated with the discharge of fragmented microplastics into the concentrate.

Environmental Science & Technology Letters

An integrated feasibility study of reservoir thermal energy storage in Portland, Oregon, USA

In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to groundwater systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 87,000 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.

Oregon

Amitriptyline and nortriptyline induce ocular toxicity in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio)

The global use of antidepressants has steadily increased, raising concern to aquatic ecosystems due to the incomplete removal during wastewater treatment. Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) act on the neuronal system by inhibiting the reuptake of serotonin and norepinephrine. However, despite visual function being heavily dependent on the neuronal system, a knowledge gap remains regarding the ocular toxicity of TCAs. To bridge this knowledge gap, zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) embryos were exposed to sublethal test concentrations of amitriptyline (AMI, 0.3 to 300 μg/L nominal, 2.04 to 234 μg/L measured) and nortriptyline (NOR, 0.03 to 300 μg/L nominal, >0.107 to 20.7 μg/L measured), with the lowest test concentrations being environmentally relevant. Visual function was assessed with the optokinetic response assay, eye structure development was assessed histologically, and gene expression changes were analysed via transcriptomic profiling. Larval zebrafish (120 h post fertilization (hpf)) exposed to 4.99 and 234 μg/L of AMI exhibited a 26 % and 86 % decrease in the number of eye saccades respectively, with zebrafish exposed to 20.7 μg/L of NOR exhibiting a 65 % decrease. Histological analysis indicated a significant increase of the retinal pigment epithelium thickness after exposure to 234 μg/L of AMI and 20.7 μg/L of NOR. Transcriptomic analysis resulted in 1207 and 2742 differentially expressed genes across both AMI and NOR treatment groups respectively, including genes involved in vision, synaptic signaling, and neuronal development. These findings demonstrate that sublethal concentrations of AMI and NOR affect early life stage zebrafish visual development, which may be sensitive endpoint that could be incorporated into ecological risk assessments.

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part C: To

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California

Comparison of methods to examine diet of feral horses from non-invasively collected fecal samples

Feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) have become abundant on public lands in the American West, particularly over the past 10 yr. In areas where they are overabundant, there is risk of habitat degradation. Most previous studies on diet and habitat use of feral horses were conducted more than 20 yr ago; rangelands have changed considerably in that time, so it is useful to revisit horse diets. We conducted a study to examine the diet of feral horses using noninvasive methods and subjectively compare diet analysis techniques. We collected feral horse fecal samples from a sagebrush/pinyon-juniper ecosystem in Colorado in May, August, and October 2014. We analyzed 30 fecal samples from each collection session by both microhistology and plant DNA barcoding. Both microhistology and plant DNA barcoding results indicated horse diet consisted primarily of graminoids (78.5% and 68.8%, respectively, both of which are in greater proportion than availability based on ecological site descriptions); however, the two methods differed in species composition of grasses. Similar to other studies, microhistological analyses underestimated the proportion of forbs in the diet compared with plant DNA barcoding analyses, which showed a surprisingly high contribution of forbs to the diet compared with previous studies. Our results suggest plant DNA barcoding analyses have great potential, although both methods have inherent biases.

Colorado

Forest clearing and regional landsliding

The influence of forest clearing on landsliding is central to long-standing concern over the effects of timber harvesting on slope stability. Here we document a strong topographic control on shallow landsliding by combining unique ground-based landslide surveys in an intensively monitored study area with digital terrain modeling using high-resolution laser altimetry and a coarser resolution regional study of 3224 landslides. As predicted by our digital terrain–based model, landslides occur disproportionately in steep, convergent topography. In terrain predicted to be at low risk of slope failure, a random model performs equally well to our mechanism-based model. Our monitoring shows that storms with 24 hr rainfall recurrence intervals of less than 4 yr triggered landslides in the decade after forest clearing and that conventional monitoring programs can substantially underestimate the effects of forest clearing. Our regional analysis further substantiates that forest clearing dramatically accelerates shallow landsliding in steep terrain typical of the Pacific Northwest.

Oregon

Undiscovered phosphate resources in the Caribbean region and their potential value for agricultural development

The countries of the world's humid tropical regions lack the soil fertility necessary for high agricultural productivity. A recently developed agricultural technology that increases soil fertility can make tropical agriculture highly productive, but the technique requires large inputs into the soil of phosphorus and other fertilizers and soil amendments. Use of fertilizers derived from phosphate rock is increasing greatly throughout the world, and fertilizer raw materials are being produced more and more frequently from phosphate rock deposits close to the areas of use. An increased understanding of the origin of phosphate rock in ancient oceans has enabled exploration geologists to target areas of potential mineral resource value and to search directly for deposits. However, because of the difficulty of prospecting for mineral deposits in forested tropical regions, phosphate rock deposits are not being explored for in the countries of the humid tropics, including most countries of the Caribbean region. As a result, the countries of the Caribbean must import phosphate rock or phosphorus fertilizer products. In the present trade market, imports of phosphate are too low for the initiation of new agricultural technology in the Caribbean and Central American region. A newly proposed program of discovery and development of undiscovered phosphate rock deposits revolves around reconnaissance studies, prospecting by core drilling, and analysis of bulk samples. The program should increase the chance of discovering economic phosphate rock deposits. The search for and evaluation of phosphate rock resources in the countries of the Caribbean region would take about 5 years and cost an average of $15 million per country. The program is designed to begin with high risk-low cost steps and end with low risk-high cost steps. A successful program could improve the foreign exchange positions of countries in the Caribbean region by adding earnings from agricultural product exports and by substituting domestically produced phosphate rock and fertilizer products for imported phosphate fertilizers. A successful program also could provide enough domestically produced phosphorus fertilizer products to allow initiation of new agricultural technology in the region and thus increase domestic food production. Finally, a new phosphorus fertilizer industry would create new jobs in the mining, chemical, and transportation industries of the Caribbean region.

Circular

Nitrate in aquifers beneath agricultural systems

Research from several regions of the world provides spatially anecdotal evidence to hypothesize which hydrologic and agricultural factors contribute to groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination. Analysis of nationally consistent measurements from the U.S. Geological Survey's NAWOA program confirms these hypotheses for a substantial range of agricultural systems. Shallow unconfined aquifers are most susceptible to nitrate contamination associated with agricultural systems. Alluvial and other unconsolidated aquifers are the most vulnerable and shallow carbonate aquifers provide a substantial but smaller contamination risk. Where any of these aquifers are overlain by permeable soils the risk of contamination is larger. Irrigated systems can compound this vulnerability by increasing leaching facilitated by additional recharge and additional nutrient applications. The agricultural system of corn, soybeans, and hogs produced significantly larger concentrations of groundwater nitrate than all other agricultural systems, although mean nitrate concentrations in counties with dairy, poultry, cattle and grains, and horticulture systems were similar. If trends in the relation between increased fertilizer use and groundwater nitrate in the United States are repeated in other regions of the world, Asia may experience increasing problems because of recent increases in fertilizer use. Groundwater monitoring in Western and Eastern Europe as well as Russia over the next decade may provide data to determine if the trend in increased nitrate contamination can be reversed. If the concentrated livestock trend in the United States is global, it may be accompanied by increasing nitrogen contamination in groundwater. Concentrated livestock provide both point sources in the confinement area and intense non-point sources as fields close to facilities are used for manure disposal. Regions where irrigated cropland is expanding, such as in Asia, may experience the greatest impact of this practice.

Conference Paper

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of alternative model selection criteria in the analysis of unimodal response curves using CART

We investigated CART performance with a unimodal response curve for one continuous response and four continuous explanatory variables, where two variables were important (i.e. directly related to the response) and the other two were not. We explored performance under three relationship strengths and two explanatory variable conditions: equal importance and one variable four times as important as the other. We compared CART variable selection performance using three tree-selection rules ('minimum risk', 'minimum risk complexity', 'one standard error') to stepwise polynomial ordinary least squares (OLS) under four sample size conditions. The one-standard-error and minimum risk-complexity methods performed about as well as stepwise OLS with large sample sizes when the relationship was strong. With weaker relationships, equally important explanatory variables and larger sample sizes, the one-standard-error and minimum-risk-complexity rules performed better than stepwise OLS. With weaker relationships and explanatory variables of unequal importance, tree-structured methods did not perform as well as stepwise OLS. Comparing performance within tree-structured methods, with a strong relationship and equally important explanatory variables, the one-standard-error rule was more likely to choose the correct model than were the other tree-selection rules. The minimum-risk-complexity rule was more likely to choose the correct model than were the other tree-selection rules (1) with weaker relationships and equally important explanatory variables; and (2) under all relationship strengths when explanatory variables were of unequal importance and sample sizes were lower.

Journal of Applied Statistics

Meta-analysis of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: Applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire is critical for restoring the ecosystem services of protecting of human lives and infrastructure from hazards and delivering water supply of sufficient quality and quantity. Recovery of soil-hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K fs ), is a key factor for assessing the duration of watershed-scale flash flood and debris flow risks after wildfire. Despite the crucial role of K fs in parameterizing numerical hydrologic models to predict the magnitude of postwildfire run-off and erosion, existing quantitative relations to predict K fs recovery with time since wildfire are lacking. Here, we conduct meta-analyses of 5 datasets from the literature that measure or estimate K fs with time since wildfire for longer than 3-year duration. The meta-analyses focus on fitting 2 quantitative relations (linear and non-linear logistic) to explain trends in K fs temporal recovery. The 2 relations adequately described temporal recovery except for 1 site where macropore flow dominated infiltration and K fs recovery. This work also suggests that K fs can have low hydrologic resistance (large postfire changes), and moderate to high hydrologic stability (recovery time relative to disturbance recurrence interval) and resilience (recovery of hydrologic function and provision of ecosystem services). Future K fs relations could more explicitly incorporate processes such as soil-water repellency, ground cover and soil structure regeneration, macropore recovery, and vegetation regrowth.

Hydrological Processes

Complex mixtures of Pesticides in Midwest U.S. streams indicated by POCIS time-integrating samplers

The Midwest United States is an intensely agricultural region where pesticides in streams pose risks to aquatic biota, but temporal variability in pesticide concentrations makes characterization of their exposure to organisms challenging. To compensate for the effects of temporal variability, we deployed polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) in 100 small streams across the Midwest for about 5 weeks during summer 2013 and analyzed the extracts for 227 pesticide compounds. Analysis of water samples collected weekly for pesticides during POCIS deployment allowed for comparison of POCIS results with periodic water-sampling results. The median number of pesticides detected in POCIS extracts was 62, and 141 compounds were detected at least once, indicating a high level of pesticide contamination of streams in the region. Sixty-five of the 141 compounds detected were pesticide degradates. Mean water concentrations estimated using published POCIS sampling rates strongly correlated with means of weekly water samples collected concurrently, however, the POCIS-estimated concentrations generally were lower than the measured water concentrations. Summed herbicide concentrations (units of ng/POCIS) were greater at agricultural sites than at urban sites but summed concentrations of insecticides and fungicides were greater at urban sites. Consistent with these differences, summed concentrations of herbicides correlate to percent cultivated crops in the watersheds and summed concentrations of insecticides and fungicides correlate to percent urban land use. With the exception of malathion concentrations at nine sites, POCIS-estimated water concentrations of pesticides were lower than aquatic-life benchmarks. The POCIS provide an alternative approach to traditional water sampling for characterizing chronic exposure to pesticides in streams across the Midwest region.

Environmental Pollution

Perfluorooctane sulfonamide induced autotoxic effects on the zebrafish immune system

Perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) is an immediate perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) precursor (PreFOS). Previous studies have shown PFOSA to induce stronger toxic responses compared to other perfluorinated compounds (PFCs). However, the specific nature of PFOSA-induced toxicity, whether autonomous or mediated by its metabolite PFOS, has not been fully elucidated. This study systematically investigates the immunomodulatory effects of PFOSA and PFOS in zebrafish ( Danio rerio ). Exposure to PFOSA compromised the zebrafish’s ability to defend against pathogenic infections, as evidenced by increased bacterial adhesion to their skin and reduced levels of the biocidal protein lysozyme (LYSO). Moreover, PFOSA exposure was associated with disruptions in inflammatory markers and immune indicators, along with a decrease in immune cell counts. The findings from this study suggest that the immunotoxicity effects of PFOSA are primarily due to its own toxicity rather than its metabolite PFOS. This conclusion was supported by dose-dependent responses, the severity of observed effects, and multivariate analysis. In addition, our experiments using NF-κB-morpholino knock-down techniques further confirmed the role of the Nuclear factor-κappa B pathway in mediating PFOSA-induced immunotoxicity. In conclusion, this study reveals that PFOSA impairs the immune system in zebrafish through an autotoxic mechanism, providing valuable insights for assessing the ecological risks of PFOSA.

Environmental Science and Technology

Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) induces hepatotoxicity through the PPAR signaling pathway in larval zebrafish (Danio rerio)

In recent years, the industrial substitution of long-chain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) with short-chain alternatives has become increasingly prevalent, resulting in the widespread environmental detection of perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), a short-chain PFAS. However, there remains limited information about the potential adverse effects of PFHxS at environmental concentrations to wildlife. Here, early life stage zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of PFHxS to better characterize the adverse effects of PFHxS on aquatic organisms. Nontargeted, transcriptomic analysis revealed potential hepatotoxic effects in exposed larvae, including macrovesicular and microvesicular hepatic steatosis, as well as focal liver necrosis. Morphological, histological, biochemical, and targeted transcript expression profiles further confirmed significant alterations in hepatocellular lesion numbers, liver pathological structures, relative liver size, liver biochemical parameters, and liver function genes. To validate the PPAR-mediated toxicological mechanism identified as an enriched pathway through in silico bioinformatics analysis, we tested the coexposure to an antagonist and PPAR morpholino knockdown. This intervention alleviated PFHxS-induced hepatic effects, including reductions in the levels of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, total cholesterol, and total triglycerides. Our results demonstrate that environmentally relevant concentrations of PFHxS can impair liver development and function in fish, which could have potential risks to aquatic organisms.

Environmental Science & Technology

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but one that remains unapproachable for many species. This is particularly true for species with multiple, broadly-distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently-developed method of multiple population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We build on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT), a species listed under the US Endangered Species Act which is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin, USA. We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams where LCT exist or may be reintroduced.

Conservation Biology

Debris-flow hazards in areas affected by the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia

A severe storm on June 27, 1995 triggered hundreds of rock, debris and soil slides from the steep hillsides of Madison County, Virginia. Most of these transformed into debris flows that inundated areas downslope causing damage to structures, roads, utilities, livestock and crops. This report contains an analysis of areas susceptible to debris flows including an examination of source areas, channels and areas of deposition. These analyses are used to develop a methodology for identifying areas subject to debris-flow hazards in Madison County. The report concludes with a discussion of strategies for reducing debris-flow hazards and the long term risk of these hazards in Madison County as well as for similar areas along the eastern flank of the Blue Ridge.

Virginia

Estimating metal concentrations with regression analysis and water-quality surrogates at nine sites on the Animas and San Juan Rivers, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah

The purpose of this report is to evaluate the use of site-specific regression models to estimate metal concentrations at nine U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations on the Animas and San Juan Rivers in Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. Downstream users could use these regression models to determine if metal concentrations are elevated and pose a risk to water supplies, agriculture, and recreation. Multiple linear-regression models were developed by relating metal concentrations in discrete water-quality samples to continuously monitored streamflow and surrogate parameters (specific conductance, pH, turbidity, and water temperature) collected at the U.S. Geological Survey stations. Models were developed for dissolved and total concentrations of aluminum, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc using water-quality samples collected from 2005 to 2017 by several Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies using different collection methods and analytical laboratories. Model performance varied but, in general, models for dissolved metals did not perform as well as those for total metals. Dissolved metals generally were correlated to specific conductance or streamflow and total metals generally were better correlated with turbidity. Explanatory variables in the models reflected hydrologic and geochemical processes within the basin. A larger number of regression models were statistically significant for the most upstream sites, where metal concentrations were elevated by drainage from abandoned mines and mineralized bedrock. Models generally did not perform as well at downstream sites, especially for dissolved metals, which occurred at lower concentrations than at the upstream sites. In the lower reaches of the rivers, the input of more alkaline water from tributaries and groundwater reduced metal solubility and diluted metal concentrations. The number and distribution of samples in the calibration datasets also may have been a factor in model development. At some sites on the San Juan River, calibration datasets were more limited and did not represent the full range of observed hydrologic and water-quality conditions, especially during storm events in summer and fall. Recommendations for model use are given based on estimates of model precision, biases, and adequacy of the calibration datasets in terms of the number of samples and representativeness of the observed range of streamflow and water-quality conditions.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah