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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Predictive models of selective cattle use of large, burned landscapes in semiarid sagebrush-steppe

The fire-exotic annual grass cycle is a severe threat to shrub-steppe rangelands, and a greater understanding of how livestock grazing relates to the problem is needed to guide effective management interventions. Grazing effects vary throughout shrub-steppe rangelands because livestock are selective in their use within pastures. Thus, knowing where cattle are located and concentrate their use in a postfire landscape is important for enhancing plant community resiliency to disturbance and resistance to exotic annual grass invasion. We asked how the distribution and intensity of cattle use varied across 113 000 ha of recently burned, environmentally varied shrub-steppe. Generalized linear mixed effects models were used to determine the relationship of cattle dung (presence/absence and counts), which was recorded during the third to fifth postfire year (after grazing deferment) on 1166 (531-m 2 ) plots, to water sources, burn severity, grass cover, and topographic predictors. Our distribution and intensity of use models revealed similar relationships between cattle use and landscape predictors. Cattle use was greater in areas that were flatter and closer to water and that had moderate burn severity and less heat load and ruggedness. Slope had the strongest effect on cattle use of the predictors. The probability of cattle being present decreased by 10% for every 5° increase in slope until slope exceeded 15°, and then the effect of slope weakened. Despite moderate slopes χ ¯ "> χ¯ = 14°), cattle use was greater in areas of moderate burn severity, presumably because these areas provided greater perennial grass production. While there was much unexplained variation, these models suggest that cooler climate, water access, topographic factors, and burn severity affect maneuverability to create greater livestock use of certain areas within grazing pastures. Restoration investment planning or assessments and expectations of restoration success could be improved by considering that these livestock hotspots may recover differently from the surrounding landscape.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2011

Ecological influence and pathways of land use in sagebrush

Land use in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes influences all sage-grouse (Centrocer-cus spp.) populations in western North America. Croplands and the network of irrigation canals cover 230,000 km2 and indirectly influence up to 77% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 73% of sagebrush land cover by subsidizing synanthropic predators on sage-grouse. Urbanization and the demands of human population growth have created an extensive network of con-necting infrastructure that is expanding its influence on sagebrush landscapes. Over 2,500 km 2 are now covered by interstate highways and paved roads; when secondary roads are included, 15% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 5% of existing sagebrush habitats are 2.5 km from roads. Density of secondary roads often exceeds 5 km/km 2 , resulting in widespread motorized access for recreation, creating extensive travel corridors for management actions and resource development, subsidizing predators adapted to human presence, and facilitating spread of exotic or invasive plants. Sagebrush lands also are being used for their wilderness and recreation values, including off highway vehicle use. Approximately 12,000,000 animal use months (AUM amount of forage to support one livestock unit per month) are permitted for grazing livestock on public lands in the western states. Direct effects of grazing on sage-grouse populations or sagebrush landscapes are not possible to assess from current data. However, management of lands grazed by livestock has influenced sagebrush ecosystems by vegetation treatments to increase forage and reduce sagebrush and other plant species unpalatable to livestock. Fences (2 km/km 2 in some regions), roads, and water developments to manage livestock movements further modify the landscape. Oil and gas development influences 8% of the sagebrush habitats with the highest intensities occurring in the eastern range of sage-grouse; 20% of the sagebrush distribution is indirectly influenced in the Great Plains, Wyoming Basin, and Colorado Plateau SMZs. Energy development physically removes habitat to construct well pads, roads, power lines, and pipelines; indirect effects include habitat fragmentation, soil disturbance, and facilitation of exotic plant and animal spread. More recent development of alternative energy, such as wind and geothermal, creates infrastructure in new regions of the sage-grouse distribution. Land use will continue to be a dominant stressor on sage-brush systems; its individual and cumulative effects will challenge long-term conservation of sage-grouse populations.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Fitness consequences of catastrophic wildfire are mitigated by behavioral responses of an iconic bird

Background Drought, human disturbance, and invasive species are reshaping disturbance regimes and increasing the scale, severity, and frequency of wildfire in many ecosystems around the globe, including the sagebrush steppe of western North America. Recent studies suggested greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) adhere to strong site fidelity in the aftermath of wildfire, remaining inside fire perimeters for nesting and brood rearing despite negative consequences for survival and reproduction. Sage-grouse in Idaho exhibited context-dependent changes to space use after a large, high-severity fire that burned > 40,000 ha, yet the specific behavioral responses to fire and their fitness consequences remain unclear. We used data collected from 269 hens over a 6-year period under a multi-level before-after-control-impact design to test the hypothesis that sage-grouse mitigated fitness consequences of high-severity wildfire through adaptive behavioral responses and spatial redistribution. Results We tested predictions deduced from our hypothesis at the population and individual levels using behavioral, demographic, and life history data, including nesting metrics, brood-rearing metrics, hen survival, and body mass at capture. Fifteen of 16 predictions were supported, demonstrating that post-fire space use and avoidance of the burn was adaptive and helped mitigate fitness effects of the fire. Short-term consequences included elimination of nesting and brood rearing habitat and subsequent shifts to the distribution of usable space. Yet fitness consequences were minimal because of behavioral flexibility employed by hens during nesting and brood rearing. Conclusions Behavioral responses to wildfire by sage-grouse are more flexible than has been described, and sage-grouse demonstrated resilience by rapidly adapting space use to avoid short-term consequences of catastrophic fire when high-quality habitat remained adjacent to the burn and within their seasonal range. Our results imply behavioral and fitness consequences of fire are context-dependent and likely impacted by attributes of the fire and surrounding landscape after disturbance. Furthermore, among-study differences in behavioral and fitness outcomes of sage-grouse after fire supported underappreciated predictions from both fire ecology and site fidelity theory, and suggest conditions where behavioral flexibility should be expressed, and fidelity relaxed, based on severity of disturbance, landscape context, and species mobility.

Idaho↗
USGS2018

Climate, disturbance, and vulnerability to vegetation change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area

Climate change is expected to alter the composition, structure, and function of forested ecosystems in the United States (Vose et al. 2012). Increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide [CO2]) and temperature, as well as altered precipitation and disturbance regimes (e.g., fire, insects, pathogens, and windstorms), are expected to have profound effects on biodiversity, socioeconomics, and the delivery of ecosystem services within the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) area over the next century (Dale et al. 2001, Franklin et al. 1991). The ecological interactions and diversity of biophysical settings in the region are complex. The effects of climate change on ecological processes will occur through a variety of mechanisms at a range of spatial scales and levels of biological organization, ranging from the physiological responses of individual plants to the composition and structure of stands and landscapes (Peterson et al. 2014a). Understanding and incorporating how climate change projections and the potential ecological effects and uncertainties differ within the region (e.g., Deser et al. 2012) is essential for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Linking variability in climate to wetland habitat suitability: Is it possible to forecast regional responses from simple climate measures?

Temporary wetlands have value to both ecological and social systems. Interactions between local climate and the surrounding landscape result in patterns of hydrology that are unique to temporary wetlands. These seasonal and annual fluctuations in wetland inundation contribute to community composition and richness. Thus, predicting wetland community responses to environmental change is tied to the ability to predict wetland hydroregime. Detailed monitoring of wetland hydroregime is resource-intensive, limiting the scope and scale of forecasting. As an alternative, we determine which freely available measures of water availability best predict one component of wetland hydroregime, habitat suitability (i.e., the predictability of water in a wetland) within and among geographic regions. We used data from three North American regions to determine the climate index that best explained year-to-year variation in habitat suitability during a key phenological period—amphibian breeding. We demonstrate that simple, short-term climate indices based solely on precipitation data best predict habitat suitability in vernal pools in the northeast, montane wetlands in the west and coastal plain wetlands in the southeast. These relationships can help understand how changes in short-term precipitation patterns as a result of climate change may influence the overall hydroregime, and resulting biodiversity, of temporary wetlands across disparate biomes.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗
USGS2025

Landscape changes elevate the risk of avian influenza virus diversification and emergence in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) persistently threaten wild waterfowl, domestic poultry, and public health. The East Asian–Australasian Flyway plays a crucial role in HPAIV dynamics due to its large populations of migratory waterfowl and poultry. Over recent decades, this flyway has undergone substantial landscape changes, including both losses and gains of waterfowl habitats. These changes can affect waterfowl distributions, increase contact with poultry, and consequently alter ecological conditions that favor avian influenza virus (AIV) evolution. However, limited research has assessed these likely impacts. Here, we integrated empirical data and an individual-based model to simulate AIV transmission in migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, including wild-to-poultry spillover and reassortment dynamics in poultry, across landscapes representing the years 2000 and 2015. We used the reassortment incidence as a proxy for ecological and transmission conditions that support viral diversification and the emergence of novel subtypes. Our simulations show that landscape change reshaped the waterfowl distribution, facilitated bird aggregation at improved habitats, increased coinfection, and raised reassortment rate by 1,593%, indicating a substantially higher potential for viral diversification and emergence. Model-generated risk maps show expanded and increased reassortment risk in southeastern China, the Yellow River Basin, and northeastern China. These findings suggest the importance of landscape change as a driver of potential AIV diversification and subtype emergence. This underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate landscape dynamics, host movement, and viral evolution to better assess and mitigate future risk.

East Asian–Australasian Flyway↗
USGS2017

The waterfall paradox: How knickpoints disconnect hillslope and channel processes, isolating salmonid populations in ideal habitats

Waterfalls create barriers to fish migration, yet hundreds of isolated salmonid populations exist above barriers and have persisted for thousands of years in steep mountainous terrain. Ecological theory indicates that small isolated populations in disturbance-prone landscapes are at greatest risk of extirpation because immigration and recolonization are not possible. On the contrary, many above-barrier populations are currently thriving while their downstream counterparts are dwindling. This quandary led us to explore geomorphic knickpoints as a mechanism for disconnecting hillslope and channel processes by limiting channel incision and decreasing the pace of base-level lowering. Using LiDAR from the Oregon Coast Range, we found gentler channel gradients, wider valleys, lower gradient hillslopes, and less shallow landslide potential in an above-barrier catchment compared to a neighboring catchment devoid of persistent knickpoints. Based on this unique geomorphic template, above-barrier channel networks are less prone to debris flows and other episodic sediment fluxes. These above-barrier catchments also have greater resiliency to flooding, owing to wider valleys with greater floodplain connectivity. Habitat preference models further indicate that salmonid habitat is present in greater quantity and quality in these above-barrier networks. Therefore the paradox of the persistence of small isolated fish populations may be facilitated by a geomorphic mechanism that both limits their connectivity to larger fish populations yet dampens the effect of disturbance by decreasing connections between hillslope and channel processes above geomorphic knickpoints.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2012

Land-cover change detection

Land cover is the biophysical material on the surface of the earth. Land-cover types include grass, shrubs, trees, barren, water, and man-made features. Land cover changes continuously. The rate of change can be either dramatic and abrupt, such as the changes caused by logging, hurricanes and fire, or subtle and gradual, such as regeneration of forests and damage caused by insects (Verbesselt et al., 2001). Previous studies have shown that land cover has changed dramatically during the past sevearal centuries and that these changes have severely affected our ecosystems (Foody, 2010; Lambin et al., 2001). Lambin and Strahlers (1994b) summarized five types of cause for land-cover changes: (1) long-term natural changes in climate conditions, (2) geomorphological and ecological processes, (3) human-induced alterations of vegetation cover and landscapes, (4) interannual climate variability, and (5) human-induced greenhouse effect. Tools and techniques are needed to detect, describe, and predict these changes to facilitate sustainable management of natural resources.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Land-margin ecosystem hydrologic data for the coastal Everglades, Florida, water years 1996-2012

Mangrove forests and salt marshes dominate the landscape of the coastal Everglades (Odum and McIvor, 1990). However, the ecological effects from potential sea-level rise and increased water flows from planned freshwater Everglades restoration on these coastal systems are poorly understood. The National Park Service (NPS) proposed the South Florida Global Climate Change Project (SOFL-GCC) in 1990 to evaluate climate change and the effect from rising sea levels on the coastal Everglades, particularly at the marsh/mangrove interface or ecotone (Soukup and others, 1990). A primary objective of SOFL-GCC project was to monitor and synthesize the hydrodynamics of the coastal Everglades from the upstream freshwater marsh to the downstream estuary mangrove. Two related hypotheses were set forward (Nuttle and Cosby, 1993): 1. There exists hydrologic conditions (tide, local rainfall, and upstream water deliveries), which characterize the location of the marsh/mangrove ecotone along the marine and terrestrial hydrologic gradient; and 2. The marsh/mangrove ecotone is sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and freshwater inflow from inland areas. Hydrologic monitoring of the SOFL-GCC network began in 1995 after startup delays from Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) and organizational transfers from the NPS to the National Biological Survey (October 1993) and the merger with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Research Division in 1996 (Smith, 2004). As the SOFL-GCC project progressed, concern by environmental scientists and land managers over how the diversion of water from Everglades National Park would affect the restoration of the greater Everglades ecosystem. Everglades restoration scenarios were based on hydrodynamic models, none of which included the coastal zone (Fennema and others, 1994). Modeling efforts were expanded to include the Everglades coastal zone (Schaffranek and others, 2001) with SOFL-GCC hydrologic data assisting the ecological modeling needs. In 2002, as a response for a more interdisciplinary science approach to understanding the coastal Everglades ecological system, the SOFL-GCC hydrology project was integrated into the “Dynamics of Land-Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment, and Climate” study (Smith and others, 2002). Data from the ongoing study has been useful in providing an empirical hydrologic baseline for the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration science and management needs. The hydrology network consisted of 13 hydrologic gaging stations installed in the southwestern coastal region of Everglades National Park along three transects: Shark River (Shark or SH) transect, Lostmans River (Lostmans or LO) transect, and Chatham River (Chatham or CH) transect (fig. 1). There were five paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Shark transect (SH1, SH2, SH3, SH4, and SH5) and one stage gaging station (BSC) in the Big Sable Creek; four paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Lostmans transect (LO1, LO2, LO3, and LO4); and three paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Chatham transect (CH1, CH2, and CH3). Both surface-water and groundwater levels, salinities, and temperatures were monitored at the paired gaging stations. Rainfall was recorded at marsh and open canopy gaging stations. This report details the study introduction, method, and description of data collected, which are accessible through the final instantaneous hydrologic dataset stored in the USGS South Florida Information Access (SOFIA) South Florida Hydrology Database website, http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/sfl_hydro_data/location.html#brdlandmargin .

Florida↗
USGS2015

Chemical and biotic characteristics of prairie lakes and large wetlands in south-central North Dakota—Effects of a changing climate

The climate of the prairie pothole region of North America is known for variability that results in significant interannual changes in water depths and volumes of prairie lakes and wetlands; however, beginning in July 1993, the climate of the region shifted to an extended period of increased precipitation that has likely been unequaled in the preceding 500 years. Associated changing water volumes also affect water chemical characteristics, with potential effects on fish and wildlife populations. To explore the effect of changing climate patterns, in 2012 and 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey revisited 167 of 178 prairie lakes and large wetlands of south-central North Dakota that were originally sampled in the mid-1960s to mid-1970s. During the earlier sampling period, these lakes and wetlands displayed a great range of chemical characteristics (for example, specific conductance ranged from 365 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius to 70,300 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius); however, increased water volumes have resulted in greatly reduced variation among lakes and wetlands and a more homogeneous set of chemical conditions defined by pH, specific conductance, and concentrations of major cations and anions. High concentrations of dissolved solids previously limited fish occurrence in many of the lakes and wetlands sampled; however, freshening of these lakes and large wetlands has allowed fish to populate and flourish where they were previously absent. Conversely, the freshening of previously saline lakes and wetlands has resulted in concurrent shifts away from invertebrate species adapted to live in these highly saline environments. A shift in the regional climate has changed a highly diverse landscape of wetlands (fresh to highly saline) to a markedly more homogeneous landscape that has reshaped the fish and wildlife communities of this ecologically and economically important region.

North Dakota↗
USGS2024

Seasonal activity patterns of northern long-eared bats on the coastal Mid-Atlantic

Conservation of bats declining from white-nose syndrome (WNS) impacts requires an understanding of both temporal and landscape-level habitat relationships. Traditionally, much of the research on bat ecology has focused on behavior of summer maternity colonies within species’ distribution cores, including that of the endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ). To further our knowledge of this species, we evaluated multi-season activity patterns in eastern North Carolina and Virginia, including areas where populations were recently discovered. We used passive acoustic monitoring to assess relative and probable activity of northern long-eared bats from October 2016 to August 2021. Northern long-eared bat relative activity was greatest in areas containing greater proportions of woody wetlands and upland pine-dominated evergreen forests. However, the likelihood of recording northern long-eared bats was associated with smaller proportions of woody wetlands and open water resources. Furthermore, we observed a higher probability of recording northern long-eared bats during non-winter seasons. Probable activity was greatest at temperatures between 10 and 25 C, potentially highlighting an optimal thermoneutral zone for the species regionally. Relative activity of northern long-eared bats on the Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina was primarily driven by cover features, whereas probable activity was driven by a combination of cover features, seasonality, and temperature. Therefore, acoustical surveys for this species may be most effective when targeting woody wetlands adjacent to upland forests, particularly upland pine-dominated evergreen stands, during moderate temperatures of non-winter seasons (1 April–15 November). Moreover, conservation of a diverse mosaic of woody wetlands juxtaposed by upland forests may promote both roosting and overwintering habitat, thereby enhancing overwintering survival, maternity colony establishment, and ultimately, successful reproduction of northern long-eared bats.

North Carolina, Virginia↗
USGS2016

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2025

Marshes to mangroves: Residential surveys reveal perceived wetland trade-offs for ecosystem services

Coastal landscapes are rapidly changing due to both climate change and the decisions of waterfront landowners. For instance, the climate-driven encroachment of woody mangrove species into grassy marshland areas is predicted to impact coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the ecosystem services these landscapes provide to people. However, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning coastal resident perceptions of the effects of mangrove expansion on wetlands and their ecosystem services, which may impact residents’ behavior around shorelines and landscape-level patterns. We surveyed waterfront residents in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) to understand perceptions of the relative performance of marshes and mangroves to deliver fisheries ecosystem services. Residential-scale shoreline condition and preference, recreational fishing activity, geography, and demographics were evaluated as potential predictors of resident perceptions through non-parametric comparisons across groups and ordered logit modeling. Significant predictors included area of residence, marsh shoreline condition, marsh shoreline preference, fishing frequency, and household income. Florida residents (where mangroves are most prevalent) and frequent recreational fishing participants exhibited stronger preference for mangroves. Unexpectedly, residents with marsh currently present on their shoreline also perceived that mangroves were better at delivering fisheries ecosystem services than marshes. Considering the important role that coastal residents play in shoreline management decisions, these results demonstrate how coastal resident attitudes may drive or mediate climate-driven processes in ways that are not evident by examining environmental conditions alone. Understanding social-ecological shifts due to climate change will be important to inform effective landscape management that promotes resilience in coastal ecosystems and societies.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗
USGS2012

Use of alligator hole abundance and occupancy rate as indicators for restoration of a human-altered wetland

Use of indicator species as a measure of ecosystem conditions is an established science application in environmental management. Because of its role in shaping wetland systems, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is one of the ecological indicators for wetland restoration in south Florida, USA. We conducted landscape-level aerial surveys of alligator holes in two different habitats in a wetland where anthropogenic modification of surface hydrology has altered the natural system. Alligator holes were scarcer in an area where modified hydrology caused draining and frequent dry-downs compared to another area that maintains a functional wetland system. Lower abundance of alligator holes indicates lack of alligator activities, lower overall species diversity, and lack of dry-season aquatic refugia for other organisms. The occupancy rate of alligator holes was lower than the current restoration target for the Everglades, and was variable by size class with large size-class alligators predominantly occupying alligator holes. This may indicate unequal size-class distribution, different habitat selection by size classes, or possibly a lack of recruitment. Our study provides pre-restoration baseline information about one indicator species for the Everglades. Success of the restoration can be assessed via effective synthesis of information derived by collective research efforts on the entire suite of selected ecological indicators.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Transient coastal landscapes: Rising sea level threatens salt marshes

Salt marshes are important coastal environments that provide key ecological services. As sea level rise has accelerated globally, concerns about the ability of salt marshes to survive submergence are increasing. Previous estimates of likely survival of salt marshes were based on ratios of sea level rise to marsh platform accretion . Here we took advantage of an unusual, long-term (1979–2015), spatially detailed comparison of changes in a representative New England salt marsh to provide an empirical estimate of habitat losses based on actual measurements. We show prominent changes in habitat mosaic within the marsh, consistent and coincident with increased submergence and coastal erosion . Model results suggest that at current rates of sea level rise, marsh platform accretion, habitat loss, and with the limitation of the widespread “coastal squeeze”, the entire ecosystem might disappear by the beginning of the next century, a fate that might be likely for many salt marshes elsewhere. Meta-analysis of available data suggests that 40 to 95% of the world's salt marshes will be submerged, depending on whether sea level rise remains at current or reaches anticipated rates for the end of this century.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2012

Sample design effects in landscape genetics

An important research gap in landscape genetics is the impact of different field sampling designs on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow. We evaluated how five different sampling regimes (random, linear, systematic, cluster, and single study site) affected the probability of correctly identifying the generating landscape process of population structure. Sampling regimes were chosen to represent a suite of designs common in field studies. We used genetic data generated from a spatially-explicit, individual-based program and simulated gene flow in a continuous population across a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. Additionally, we evaluated the sampling regimes using realistic and obtainable number of loci (10 and 20), number of alleles per locus (5 and 10), number of individuals sampled (10-300), and generational time after the landscape was introduced (20 and 400). For a simulated continuously distributed species, we found that random, linear, and systematic sampling regimes performed well with high sample sizes (>200), levels of polymorphism (10 alleles per locus), and number of molecular markers (20). The cluster and single study site sampling regimes were not able to correctly identify the generating process under any conditions and thus, are not advisable strategies for scenarios similar to our simulations. Our research emphasizes the importance of sampling data at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales and suggests careful consideration for sampling near landscape components that are likely to most influence the genetic structure of the species. In addition, simulating sampling designs a priori could help guide filed data collection efforts.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2019

Perspective: Developing flow policies to balance the water needs of humans and wetlands requires a landscape scale approach inclusive of future scenarios and multiple timescales

Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water management is decreasing freshwater recharge to wetlands and contributes to the salinization of important coastal wetlands as sea levels rise. Further, downscaled climate models predict an increase in drought frequency, intensity, and duration by mid-century. Conflicts over water allocation seem imminent between human and ecological needs. Current minimum flow policies are insufficient given the complexities of ecosystem processes and the changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise that are expected in the future. Improved flow policies need to be established that reflect the functional relationships between specific representative ecological resources and components of the natural flow regime across all relevant time scales. Similarly, flow policies need to be developed within a landscape scale to implicitly address the socio-ecological trade-offs as well as the complexities of water management. Multi-disciplinary collaborations will be essential for increasing our resiliency to anticipated future changes.

Wetlands↗
USGS2013

Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Journal of Coastal Research↗