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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS1983

Sedimentology of Southwestern Roads region, U.S. Virgin Islands: origin and rate of sediment accumulation

Sand deposits on southern insular shelf of St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, were investigated to determine their origin, environmental processes and accumulation rates. Sea-floor samples show that the sand has been derived (in situ) mainly from calcareous algae and molluscs. Zonation of the dominant sand producers is related to the present environmental setting; water depth has the greatest influence. Carbon-14 data (bulk sample) of cores indicate accumulation rates of slightly less than 1 mm/year for the last 5,000 years. Faunal studies show that the climate has remained constant over the past 5,000 years. The only changes in environmental conditions appear to have been an increase in water depth, changes in the patterns of water movement, and an increase in water temperature.

Virgin Islands↗
USGS2013

Trends in the suspended-sediment yields of coastal rivers of northern California, 1955–2010

Time-dependencies of suspended-sediment discharge from six coastal watersheds of northern California – Smith River, Klamath River, Trinity River, Redwood Creek, Mad River, and Eel River – were evaluated using monitoring data from 1955 to 2010. Suspended-sediment concentrations revealed time-dependent hysteresis and multi-year trends. The multi-year trends had two primary patterns relative to river discharge: (i) increases in concentration resulting from both land clearing from logging and the flood of record during December 1964 (water year 1965), and (ii) continual decreases in concentration during the decades following this flood. Data from the Eel River revealed that changes in suspended-sediment concentrations occurred for all grain-size fractions, but were most pronounced for the sand fraction. Because of these changes, the use of bulk discharge-concentration relationships (i.e., “sediment rating curves”) without time-dependencies in these relationships resulted in substantial errors in sediment load estimates, including 2.5-fold over-prediction of Eel River sediment loads since 1979. We conclude that sediment discharge and sediment discharge relationships (such as sediment rating curves) from these coastal rivers have varied substantially with time in response to land use and climate. Thus, the use of historical river sediment data and sediment rating curves without considerations for time-dependent trends may result in significant errors in sediment yield estimates from the globally-important steep, small watersheds.

California↗
USGS1996

Mapping playa evaporite minerals and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, with multispectral thermal infrared images

Efflorescent salt crusts and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, were studied with remote-sensing data acquired by the NASA thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS). Nine spectral classes that represent a variety of surface materials were distinguished, including several classes that reflect important aspects of the playa groundwater chemistry and hydrology. Evaporite crusts containing abundant thenardite (sodium sulfate) were mapped along the northern and eastern margins of the Cottonball Basin, areas where the inflow waters are rich in sodium. Gypsum (calcium sulfate) crusts were more common in the Badwater Basin, particularly near springs associated with calcic groundwaters along the western basin margin. Evaporite-rich crusts generally marked areas where groundwater is periodically near the surface and thus able to replenish the crusts though capillary evaporation. Detrital silicate minerals were prevalent in other parts of the salt pan where shallow groundwater does not affect the surface composition. The surface features in Death Valley change in response to climatic variations on several different timescales. For example, salt crusts on low-lying mudflats form and redissolve during seasonal-to-interannual cycles of wetting and desiccation. In contrast, recent flooding and erosion of rough-salt surfaces in Death Valley probably reflect increased regional precipitation spanning several decades. Remote-sensing observations of playas can provide a means for monitoring changes in evaporite facies and for better understanding the associated climatic processes. At present, such studies are limited by the availability of suitable airborne scanner data. However, with the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 Platform in 1998, multispectral visible/near-infrared and thermal infrared remote-sensing data will become globally available.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2014

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2018

Landscape pivot points and responses to water balance in national parks of the southwest US

A recent drying trend that is expected to continue in the southwestern US underscores the need for site‐specific and near real‐time understanding of vegetation vulnerability so that land management actions can be implemented at the right time and place. We related the annual integrated normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI), a proxy for vegetation production, to water balance across landscapes of the Colorado Plateau. We determined how changes in production per unit of water (vegetation responses) and the water balance amounts at which production shifted from above to below average values (pivot points), varied across dominant vegetation and soil types. Precipitation (PRCP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), water deficit ( D ), and soil moisture (SM) explained 13%–82% of variation in vegetation production. Along an increasing water availability gradient, vegetation responses to PRCP and AET increased, responses to SM decreased, and responses to D became more negative. We found trade‐offs between vegetation responses and pivot points within and across all vegetation types that were mediated by soil properties. Synthesis and applications . The water needed by native vegetation to maintain production depends on plant traits. The water available to vegetation depends on climate and soil properties that change along environmental gradients. Tracking this biologically relevant water availability in relation to water need provides an indicator of vegetation growth or stress that can help guide the time and place for management actions.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2020

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona↗
USGS2015

Long-term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern U.S., are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To better understand these detrimental effects, we formulate a conceptual model of dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change that integrates hypotheses on how plant species will respond to increases in temperature and drought, including how plant responses to climate are modified by landscape, soil, and plant attributes that are integral to water availability and use. We test the model through a synthesis of fifty years of repeat measurements of perennial plant species cover in large permanent plots across the Mojave Desert, one of the most water-limited ecosystems in North America. Plant species ranged in their sensitivity to precipitation in different seasons, capacity to increase in cover with high precipitation, and resistance to decrease in cover with low precipitation. Our model successfully explains how plant responses to climate are modified by biophysical attributes in the Mojave Desert. For example, deep-rooted plants were not as vulnerable to drought on soils that allowed for deep water percolation, whereas shallow-rooted plants were better buffered from drought on soils that promoted water retention near the surface. Synthesis. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding climate-vegetation relationships in the context of biophysical attributes that influence water availability and provide an important forecast of climate-change effects, including plant mortality and land degradation in dryland regions throughout the world.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2022

Physiological and nutritional constraints on zooplankton productivity due to eutrophication and climate change predicted using a resource-based modeling approach

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links freshwater cladoceran and copepod daily production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios with water temperature, phytoplankton biomass and community composition, and zooplankton feeding selectivity. This model was used to evaluate constraints on zooplankton growth under four hypothetical scenarios: involving natural plankton community seasonal succession; lake fertilization to enhance fisheries production; eutrophication; and climatic warming. Our novel modeling approach predicts zooplankton production is strongly dependent on seasonal variation in resource availability and quality, which results in more complex zooplankton dynamics than predicted by simpler temperature dependent models. For mesotrophic and hypereutrophic lakes, our study suggests that the ultimate control over zooplankton P/B ratios shifts from physiological control during colder periods to strong resource control during warmer periods. Our resource-based model provided important insights into the nature of biophysical control of zooplankton under a changing climate that has crucial implications for food web energy transfer and fisheries production.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2024

Smaller body size under warming is not due to gill-oxygen limitation in a coldwater salmonid

Declining body size in fishes and other aquatic ectotherms associated with anthropogenic climate warming has significant implications for future fisheries yields, stock assessments and aquatic ecosystem stability. One proposed mechanism seeking to explain such body-size reductions, known as the gill oxygen limitation (GOL) hypothesis, has recently been used to model future impacts of climate warming on fisheries but has not been robustly empirically tested. We used brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), a fast-growing, cold-water salmonid species of broad economic, conservation and ecological value, to examine the GOL hypothesis in a long-term experiment quantifying effects of temperature on growth, resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and gill surface area (GSA). Despite significantly reduced growth and body size at an elevated temperature, allometric slopes of GSA were not significantly different than 1.0 and were above those for RMR and MMR at both temperature treatments (15°C and 20°C), contrary to GOL expectations. We also found that the effect of temperature on RMR was time-dependent, contradicting the prediction that heightened temperatures increase metabolic rates and reinforcing the importance of longer-term exposures (e.g. >6 months) to fully understand the influence of acclimation on temperature–metabolic rate relationships. Our results indicate that although oxygen limitation may be important in some aspects of temperature–body size relationships and constraints on metabolic supply may contribute to reduced growth in some cases, it is unlikely that GOL is a universal mechanism explaining temperature–body size relationships in aquatic ectotherms. We suggest future research focus on alternative mechanisms underlying temperature–body size relationships, and that projections of climate change impacts on fisheries yields using models based on GOL assumptions be interpreted with caution.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗
USGS2022

Terrestrial ecosystem modeling with IBIS: Progress and future vision

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are powerful tools for studying complicated ecosystem processes and global changes. This review article synthesizes the developments and applications of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a DGVM, over the past two decades. IBIS has been used to evaluate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation changes, land-atmosphere interactions, land-aquatic system integration, and climate change impacts. Here we summarize model development work since IBIS v2.5, covering hydrology (evapotranspiration, groundwater, lateral routing), vegetation dynamics (plant functional type, land cover change), plant physiology (phenology, photosynthesis, carbon allocation, growth), biogeochemistry (soil carbon and nitrogen processes, greenhouse gas emissions), impacts of natural disturbances (drought, insect damage, fire) and human induced land use changes, and computational improvements. We also summarize IBIS model applications around the world in evaluating ecosystem productivity, carbon and water budgets, water use efficiency, natural disturbance effects, and impacts of climate change and land use change on the carbon cycle. Based on this review, visions of future cross-scale, cross-landscape and cross-system model development and applications are discussed.

Journal of Resources and Ecology↗
USGS2021

Estimating age and growth of invasive sea lamprey: A review of approaches and investigation of a new method

We review recent advances in age and growth estimation of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Great Lakes and present a more accurate method for growth estimation. To forecast growth and prioritize streams for control actions, sea lamprey managers currently use an average daily growth model. Here, a new linear model that included stream and lake as contributing variables was investigated and found to outperform the currently used growth model (roughly a 10 mm difference at age 1). Length-at-age of larvae between ages 1 and 4 were also best forecasted by a linear model with the predictor variables including growing degree days, stream, lake, and larval lamprey density. The model predicts that larval sea lamprey grow faster in warm streams with low densities of lamprey larvae. More accurate growth models could allow sea lamprey control managers to improve decisions concerning how sea lamprey control effort is allocated among streams, and could help inform broader modeling efforts evaluating the population demographics of a lake-wide populations exposed to varying control and environmental scenarios. Priority areas for research include investigating if temperatures have increased in sea lamprey-producing streams in response to climate change, using close-kin mark-recapture to mark family groups at age 1 to age large larvae and transformers years later, and determining if sex determination is environmentally mediated by larval growth and density.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

A rock record of complex aeolian bedforms in a Hesperian desert landscape: The Stimson formation as exposed in the Murray Buttes, Gale Crater, Mars

Lithified aeolian strata encode information about ancient planetary surface processes and the climate during deposition. Decoding these strata provides insight regarding past sediment transport processes, bedform kinematics, depositional landscape, and the prevailing climate. Deciphering these signatures requires a detailed analysis of sedimentary architecture to reconstruct dune morphology, motion, and the conditions that enabled their formation. Here, we show that a distinct sandstone unit exposed in the foothills of Mount Sharp, Gale crater, Mars, records the preserved expression of compound aeolian bedforms that accumulated in a large dune field. Analysis of Mastcam images of the Stimson formation shows that it consists of cross‐stratified sandstone beds separated by a hierarchy of erosive bounding surfaces formed during dune migration. The presence of two orders of surfaces with distinct geometrical relations reveals that the Stimson‐era landscape consisted of large dunes (draas) with smaller, superimposed dunes migrating across their lee slopes. Analysis of cross‐lamination and subset bounding surface geometries indicate a complex wind regime that transported sediment toward the north, constructing oblique dunes. This dune field was a direct product of the regional climate and the surface processes active in Gale crater during the fraction of the Hesperian Period recorded by the Stimson formation. The environment was arid, supporting a large aeolian dune field; this setting contrasts with earlier humid depositional episodes, recorded by the lacustrine sediments of the Murray formation (also Hesperian). Such fine‐scale reconstruction of landscapes on the ancient surface of Mars is important to understanding the planet’s past climate and habitability.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2016

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors. We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate). Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor). Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact. Synthesis and applications . Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗
USGS2013

Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036 yr −1 . Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value <0.05). Only 4% of the vegetated area showed significant decrease trends, which were mostly in the central and southwestern plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

Tibet;Qinghai↗
USGS2023

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

Premise Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. Methods We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. Results Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. Conclusions Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2024

Climate, hydrology, and nutrients control the seasonality of Si concentrations in rivers

The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termed DSi regime , mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large-scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences↗
USGS2016

Pika ( Ochotona princeps ) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region

Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.

Journal of Mammalogy↗