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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS1998

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Nitrogen mineralization in a mature boreal forest, Isle Royale, Michigan

The 115-ha boreal Wallace Lake watershed, located on Isle Royale in the Lake Superior Basin, receives moderate anthropogenic atmospheric N inputs (3 kg ha-1 yr-1). Ecosystem response to atmospheric N inputs is, in part, determined by internal production and consumption of this limiting nutrient. The objectives of this 2-yr study on plots dominated by birch, spruce, or alder were to quantify forest floor and surface soil net and gross N mineralization rates, and examine potential effects of changes in temperature and moisture on these processes. Gross N mineralization rates were 23 times net mineralization rates, and increased with forest floor/soil temperature and moisture. Substrate quality was a likely factor in higher gross mineralization rates beneath birch and spruce. Ammonium immobilization increased with forest floor/soil temperature and moisture. Higher net N mineralization rates beneath alder resulted from lower microbial immobilization rather than greater gross N mineralization. The greatest differences between gross N mineralization and immobilization occurred in early summer. Ammonium immobilization averaged 62% of gross N mineralization. Net and gross nitrification rates differed by vegetation type, were highest in spring and fall, and increased with moisture. Gross nitrification was 19 times net nitrification rates. Nitrate immobilization increased with soil moisture, and equalled or exceeded gross nitrification. Net and gross N mineralization or nitrification rates were not correlated. Seasonal variation in forest floor and surface soil N cycling coupled with high ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs suggest streamwater N concentrations and output reflect trends in soil processes.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2000

Geology and depositional environments of the Guadalupian rocks of the northern Del Norte Mountains, West Texas

The Guadalupian rocks of the northern Del Norte Mountains were deposited in a foreland basin between land of the Marathon orogen and a carbonate shoal established on the geanticline separating the foreland basin from the Delaware basin. Deposition was alternately influenced by coarse clastic input from the orogen and carbonate shoal, which interrupted shallow basinal siltstone depletion. Relatively deeper-water deposition is characterized by carbonate input from the shoal, and relatively shallow-water deposition is characterized by sandstone input from the orogen. Deposition was in five general transgressive-regressive packages that include (1) the Road Canyon Formation and the first siltstone member and first sandstone member of the Word Formation, (2) the second siltstone member, Appel Ranch Member, and limy sandy siltstone member of the Word Formation, (3) the Vidrio Formation, (4) the lower and part of the middle members of the Altuda Formation, and (5) part of the middle and upper members of the Altuda Formation.

Texas↗
USGS1989

Stream temperature investigations: field and analytic methods

This document provides guidance to the user of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP). Planning a temperature study is discussed in terms of understanding the management objectives and ensuring that the questions will be accurately answered with the modeling approach being used. A sensitivity analysis of SNTEMP is presented to illustrate which input variables are most important in predicting stream temperatures. This information helps prioritize data collection activities, highlights the need for quality control, focuses on which parameters can be estimated rather than measured, and offers a broader perspective on management options in terms of knowing where the biggest temperature response will be felt. All of the major input variables for stream geometry, meteorology, and hydrology are discussed in detail. Each variable is defined, with guidance given on how to measure it, what kind of equipment to use, where to obtain it from another agency, and how to calculate it if the data are in a form other than that required by SNTEMP. Examples are presented for the various forms in which water temperature, discharge, and meteorological data are commonly found. Ranges of values for certain input variables that are difficult to measure of estimate are given. Particular attention is given to those variables not commonly understood by field biologists likely to be involved in a stream temperature study. Pertinent literature is cited for each variable, with emphasis on how other people have treated particular problems and on results they have found. Model calibration, verification, and validation steps are defined and outlines, with measures of "goodness-of-fit" given for comparing simulated stream temperatures with observed values. The question of how good is good enough is explored, and attention is given to the kinds of simulation and data reduction errors that one should be alert for. Some special cases dealing with ice and reservoir temperature are mentioned. Special attention is given to understanding micro-thermal habitats that act as important thermal refugia under low flow conditions; their causes, extent, and management implications are discussed. Alternative public domain stream and reservoir temperature models are contrasted with SNTEMP. A distinction is made between steady-flow and dynamic-flow models and their respective capabilities. Regression models are offered as an alternative approach for some situations, with appropriate mathematical formulas suggested. Appendices provide information on State and Federal agencies that are good data sources, vendors for field instrumentation, and small computer programs useful in data reduction.

Report↗
USGS2010

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina coast

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level would have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. Six reservoirs in North Carolina discharge into the Pee Dee River, which flows 160 miles through South Carolina to the coastal communities near Myrtle Beach, SC. During the Southeast’s record-breaking drought from 1998 to 2002, salinity intrusions inundated a coastal municipal freshwater intake, limiting water supplies. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages along the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) near Myrtle Beach, SC, data-mining techniques were applied to over 20 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow from the 12,700 square-mile Pee Dee River Basin that flows into the AIW are input to the model as time-delayed variables and accumulated tributary inflows. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey Pawleys Island streamgage (station 02110125) near a municipal freshwater intake indicate that a sea-level rise of 1 foot (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would double the frequency of water with a specific conductance value of 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter close to 4 percent. A 2 ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would quadruple the frequency to 9 percent.

South Carolina↗
USGS2010

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change on the Lower Savannah River Estuary

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level may have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. The Savannah River originates at the confluence of the Seneca and Tugaloo Rivers, near Hartwell, Ga., and forms the state boundary between South Carolina and Georgia. The J. Strom Thurmond Dam and Lake, located 238 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, is responsible for most of the flow regulation that affects the Savannah River from Augusta, Ga., to the coast. The Savannah Harbor experiences semi-diurnal tides of two low and two high tides in a 24.8-hour period with pronounced differences in tidal range between neap and spring tides occurring on a 14-day and 28-day lunar cycle. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages in the Lower Savannah River Estuary, data-mining techniques were applied to over 15 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow data from the 9,850 square-mile Savannah River Basin were input into the model as time-delayed variables. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. Important freshwater resources are located proximal to the freshwater-saltwater interface of the estuary. The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge is located in the upper portion of the Savannah River Estuary. The tidal freshwater marsh is an essential part of the 28,000-acre refuge and is home to a diverse variety of wildlife and plant communities. Two municipal freshwater intakes are located upstream from the refuge. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion on these resources, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Interstate-95 streamgage (station 02198840) for a 7½-year simulation show that historical daily salinity concentrations never exceeded 0.5 practical salinity units (psu). A 1-foot sea-level rise (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would increase the number of days of salinity concentrations greater than 0.5 psu to 47 days. A 2-ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would increase the number of days to 248.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2008

Gathering, organizing, and accessing data for use in bird conservation across the Americas

The U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) Monitoring Subcommittee (2007) identified the need for a comprehensive plan for integrating and managing bird population monitoring data, and to adapt this as an integral component for improving monitoring activities across North America. While the Subcommittee provided a basic framework to begin development of this data management strategy, input from stakeholders is needed to identify data management needs and the technical capacity necessary to solve those challenges. We organized a session at the Fourth International Partners in Flight Conference to solicit input from session participants from across the Americas and identify their data management needs. Session speakers and participants provided examples of the challenges encountered with data management and how the Internet is increasingly used to provide access to the data needed for bird conservation decisions. Input provided during the session indicated that data management needs extended beyond technology to include scientifi c, conservation, social, institutional, and cultural issues. Because data management is intricately related to all aspects of bird conservation, a coordination process that elevates the importance of data management within the bird conservation community is needed, in addition to improving data management associated with bird population monitoring programs. Development of a comprehensive data management strategy for bird population monitoring data would help address the needs and challenges identified during this session.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Research plan and preliminary results: A field research site for emerging contaminants in Iowa

Research has recently documented the prevalence of a wide variety of pharmaceuticals and other emerging contaminants (ECs) in streams across the United States. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been found to be an important source and collection point of ECs to streams as many ECs are incompletely removed during treatment. To investigate the complex in-stream processes (e.g., dilution, sorption, degradation, dispersion, etc.) that can affect ECs following their input from a WWTP and determining if such input is having an effect on the aquatic ecosystem requires the integration of multi-disciplinary efforts at a carefully selected field site. Preliminary work has identified an 8-km reach of Fourmile Creek in central Iowa as an ideal research site to investigate such important research questions pertaining to ECs. Unique aspects of Fourmile Creek included: (1) it single source effluent-dominated stream, (2) background data document the input of a wide variety of ECs from WWTP discharge, (3) small basin size, (4) relatively simple flow system, (5) background data suggest that undefined processes are taking place decreasing the level of select ECs during stream transport, (6) the WWTP uses a treatment technology (activated sludge) typical of many towns in Iowa and the United States (7) a hydrogeologic setting of a low-gradient, small stream (average discharge less than 1.41 m³/s) in glacial drift is typical of many areas in Iowa and across the Midwest, and (8) the existence of a low-head clam approximately 2 km upstream of the WWTP outfall allowing more accurate "above WWTP" and "below WWTP" comparisons in aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, the WWTP is scheduled to close by 2011 providing a unique opportunity to determine how stream hydrology, water chemistry and aquatic biota react to the removal of the primary source of flow and ECs in this system. This will allow a novel "before" and "after" assessment not previously available in EC research. Research to date at the site has included installation of a streamflow gauging station, dye-tracing tests (to determine water travel times), Lagrangian water-quality sampling at two flow/water temperature regimes, and sampling for ECs in bed sediment. Selected fish have been collected for analysis and identification. In addition, basic fish community and fish health assessment for different seasons and spawning conditions are being analyzed. The research "framework" is unique at Fourmile Creek for investigating the important question of how ECs are transported through the environment and if the presence of such compounds is having a deleterious effect on aquatic ecosystems.

Iowa↗
USGS2014

A new map of global ecological land units — An ecophysiographic stratification approach

In response to the need and an intergovernmental commission for a high resolution and data-derived global ecosystem map, land surface elements of global ecological pattern were characterized in an ecophysiographic stratification of the planet. The stratification produced 3,923 terrestrial ecological land units (ELUs) at a base resolution of 250 meters. The ELUs were derived from data on land surface features in a three step approach. The first step involved acquiring or developing four global raster datalayers representing the primary components of ecosystem structure: bioclimate, landform, lithology, and land cover. These datasets generally represent the most accurate, current, globally comprehensive, and finest spatial and thematic resolution data available for each of the four inputs. The second step involved a spatial combination of the four inputs into a single, new integrated raster dataset where every cell represents a combination of values from the bioclimate, landforms, lithology, and land cover datalayers. This foundational global raster datalayer, called ecological facets (EFs), contains 47,650 unique combinations of the four inputs. The third step involved an aggregation of the EFs into the 3,923 ELUs. This subdivision of the Earth’s surface into relatively fine, ecological land areas is designed to be useful for various types of ecosystem research and management applications, including assessments of climate change impacts to ecosystems, economic and non-economic valuation of ecosystem services, and conservation planning.

Book↗
USGS2017

Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2018

Probabilistic models of seafloor composition using multispectral acoustic backscatter: The benthic detectorists

We describe and compare two probabilistic models for task-specific seafloor characterization based on multispectral backscatter. We examine whether generative or discriminative approaches to supervised seafloor characterization do better at harnessing the greatly increased information about seafloor substrate composition that is encoded in the backscattering response across multiple frequencies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is proposed as a generative model, and a fully-connected conditional random field (CRF) is proposed as a discriminative model. Either model uses input data derived from monospectral or multispectral backscatter without modification. The CRF approach considers both the relative backscatter magnitudes of different substrates as well as their relative proximity, and can be optimized using parameters. The GMM model, in contrast, includes no spatial information in its estimates, being based solely on relative backscatter magnitudes. Both GMM and CRF modeling approaches perform better with multispectral backscatter compared to monospectral, significantly outperforming all three monospectral frequencies. With multispectral backscatter inputs, based on average classification accuracies alone, there was little to choose between the two modeling approaches (classification accuracy of 81% and 83% for GMM and CRF models, respectively, evaluated using 50% of available bed observations to train and 50% to test the models). However, a CRF model that has been optimized with respect to its tunable parameters tends to produce higher posterior probabilities (i.e. greater certainty) for its classifications. Using monospectral backscatter inputs, the CRF model significantly outperformed the GMM model in terms of average classification accuracy. On balance, therefore, based on the evidence presented here, the CRF is suggested to be the superior approach for task-specific seafloor classification. Although further work using additional data is required to further examine this conclusion, the work presented here will guide and focus subsequent research efforts as more areas of the seafloor are mapped with the new technology. In order to facilitate these efforts, the algorithms presented here are encoded in a freely available python toolbox for Probabilistic acoustic Sediment Mapping, called PriSM , that can be used for both monospectral and multispectral backscatter. Finally, we show that application of the CRF model to the outputs of a geoacoustical model of seafloor scattering results in realistic substrate classification boundaries. This hybrid CRF and physics-based approach can predict the physical properties of the seafloor at a finer spatial resolution than is possible using the geoacoustical model alone.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2004

A suspended sediment budget for Pool 13 and La Grange Pool of the upper Mississippi River system

The suspended sediment budget for Pool 13 of the Mississippi River and La Grange Pool of the Illinois River was examined over a 3-yr period (October 1995 through September 1997). Pool 13 output was between 3.07 and 3.64 million t (metric tons) of suspended sediment annually during the study period. Loads to Pool 13 were dominated by those delivered by the Mississippi River (76%, 74%, and 66% in the 1995, 1996, and 1997 water years, respectively). Pool 13 exhibited sediment export (output greater than input) in 1995, a balance in 1996, and marked sediment trapping (output less than input) in 1997. Within the three study years, Pool 13 received its highest water and sediment loads during spring (March through May) and this period was marked by sediment export. Suspended sediment loads were trapped during the remainder of the year. La Grange Pool output was between 3.71 and 5.04 million t of suspended sediment annually during the 1995-97 water years. The Illinois River accounted for less than 50% of the suspended sediment load to the pool (19%, 25%, and 45% in the 1995, 1996, and 1997 water years, respectively. La Grange Pool exhibited considerable sediment trapping in 1995 whereas the 1996 and 1997 water years were much closer to a balance wherein output was within 5% of input. Generally, La Grange Pool received its largest water and sediment loads during the late spring—early summer period (April through June), but in 1997 the late winter loads predominated. In all years, La Grange Pool trapped the sediments during these high discharge, high loading periods and exported suspended sediments for the remainder of the year. The distinct differences in the manner in which these pools process suspended sediment loads may be related to the considerable differences between the morphometry of these pools.

Illinois, Iowa↗
USGS2019

Report of the technical expert workshop: Developing recommendations for field response, captive management, and rehabilitation of sea turtles with fibropapillomatosis

Fibropapillomatosis (FP) is a disease of sea turtles that primarily manifests as tumors of the skin. Strandings of green turtles with this disease have dramatically increased in the Southeast U.S. over the last decade, necessitating a review of various practices related to the capture, handling, and treatment of afflicted turtles. NOAA and USFWS hosted a workshop in St. Petersburg, Florida on September 6, 2017 to seek input on the development of recommendations to address the following key issues regarding green turtles with FP: 1) disposition when encountered under various circumstances (e.g., strandings, research activities, incidental capture, opportunistic observations); 2) rehabilitation and release; 3) response options if rehabilitation capacity is exceeded; and 4) biosecurity measures to prevent anthropogenic spread of the disease. Federal and state resource agency staff and rehabilitation veterinarians were invited to this workshop to provide input for these recommendations. A review of rehabilitation practices and outcome was shared with participants to inform discussions related to rehabilitation and stranding response. Draft recommendations were prepared for the meeting and participants were asked to share their opinions during moderated discussions and via a written feedback instrument. This input was considered and applied to amend the recommendations, which were also peer-reviewed by six additional veterinarians and a stranding biologist with expertise in sea turtles,rehabilitation medicine, and fibropapillomatosis. The intended use for the completed Fibropapillomatosis and Sea Turtles: Recommendations for Field Response, Captive Management, and Rehabilitation is to assist resource agencies with management planning and decisions related to green turtles with FP and to inform relevant aspects of policy, permits, and authorizations under federal and state regulations.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2002

Sustainability of vegetation communities grazed by elk in Rocky Mountain National Park

Current management of the worlds' grazing lands in either based on changes in plant species composition or on other management evaluation programs that emphasize changes in net aboveground production. Management is based solely on changes in aboveground production has been criticized as too limited in view, because it ignores root production, nitrogen pools, nutrient processes, and the long-term sustainability of the ecosystem. The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of elk ( Cervus elaphus ) grazing on aboveground production, internal nitrogen (N) fluxes, N pools and inputs, and elk nutrient transfers across the landscape in different vegetation types in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado. Nitrogen processes and possibly N pools were significantly reduced in the willow community, but not in the upland grass/shrub community. Nitrogen mineralization rates were lower in grazed versus ungrazed short willow sites (P = 0.07; n = 4 sites), as were nitrate (NO3) pools (P = 0.10), but not in tall willow sites (P > 1.10 n = 4 sites) after 4 years. There was about half the annual N inputs to the soil surface in grazed willow sites (5.79g N/m 2 /yr = annual herbaceous biomass a?? offtake + litterfall + elk urine and feces) compared to ungrazed sites (9.66 g N/m 2 /yr = annual herbaceous biomass + litterfall), suggesting elk herbivory and movement led to a net loss of N in the willow vegetation type. Elk substantially reduced the annual growth of willows (Salix spp.) by 98% after 35 years and 66% after 4 years of treatment. Thus, height and canopy and N yield of willows were reduced as well as willow litter biomass (65 g/m2/yr in ungrazed versus 33 g/m2/yr in grazed), and N yield of willows was 64% less in grazed plots. Elk grazing had no significant effect on other soil N pools (NH4) or litter decomposition rates in either of the two willow types, nor on any nitrogen process rates or pools in the upland grass/shrub type (P > 0.10). Nitrogen concentrations in plant tissue were not influenced for the most part by elk grazing (increased N concentration found in only 4 of 13 species). Elk apparently also transported N away from aspen at an even higher rate (N inputs were 1.65 g N/m2/yr in grazed sites vs. 3.79 g N/m 2 /yr ungrazed). CENTURY modeling supported these observations. This soil N model predicted almost no change (0.5$ - 2% less) in N or carbon (C) pools in 50 years in the upland grass/shrub vegetation type, but greater losses in the willow type. If elk population levels were increased to carrying capacity in the ecosystem (about 25% more consumption) projected losses after 50 years were greater, but still <4% for soil C and 1% for spoil N in the upland type, and 6% for soil C and 2% for soil N in the willow type. Total shrub C was projected to decline 10% in 50 years in the willow type at current elk densities. We recommend conservative management of elk numbers and grazing until additional years of measures are gathered on the lower mineralization rates in the short willow type and until the projected declines in N pools can be verified.

Report↗
USGS1999

Temporal and spatial variability in thalweg profiles of a gravel-bed river

This study used successive longitudinal thalweg profiles in gravel-bed rivers to monitor changes in bed topography following floods and associated large sediment inputs. Variations in channel bed elevations, distributions of residual water depths, percentage of channel length occupied by riffles, and a spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran's I ) were used to quantify changes in morphological diversity and spatial structure in Redwood Creek basin, northwestern California. Bed topography in Redwood Creek and its major tributaries consists primarily of a series of pools and riffles. The size, frequency and spatial distribution of the pools and riffles have changed significantly during the past 20 years. Following large floods and high sediment input in Redwood Creek and its tributaries in 1975, variation in channel bed elevations was low and the percentage of the channel length occupied by riffles was high. Over the next 20 years, variation in bed elevations increased while the length of channel occupied by riffles decreased. An index [(standard deviation of residual water depth/bankfull depth) × 100] was developed to compare variations in bed elevation over a range of stream sizes, with a higher index being indicative of greater morphological diversity. Spatial autocorrelation in the bed elevation data was apparent at both fine and coarse scales in many of the thalweg profiles and the observed spatial pattern of bed elevations was found to be related to the dominant channel material and the time since disturbance. River reaches in which forced pools dominated, and in which large woody debris and bed particles could not be easily mobilized, exhibited a random distribution of bed elevations. In contrast, in reaches where alternate bars dominated, and both wood and gravel were readily transported, regularly spaced bed topography developed at a spacing that increased with time since disturbance. This pattern of regularly spaced bed features was reversed following a 12-year flood when bed elevations became more randomly arranged.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS1997

Use of geochemical mass balance modelling to evaluate the role of weathering in determining stream chemistry in five mid-Atlantic watersheds on different lithologies

The importance of mineral weathering was assessed and compared for five mid-Atlantic watersheds receiving similar atmospheric inputs but underlain by differing bedrock. Annual solute mass balances and volume-weighted mean solute concentrations were calculated for each watershed for each year of record. In addition, primary and secondary mineralogy were determined for each of the watersheds through analysis of soil samples and thin sections using petrographic, scanning electron microscope, electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction techniques. Mineralogical data were also compiled from the literature. These data were input to NETPATH, a geochemical program that calculates the masses of minerals that react with precipitation to produce stream water chemistry. The feasibilities of the weathering scenarios calculated by NETPATH were evaluated based on relative abundances and reactivities of minerals in the watershed. In watersheds underlain by reactive bedrocks, weathering reactions explained the stream base cation loading. In the acid-sensitive watersheds on unreactive bedrock, calculated weathering scenarios were not consistent with the abundance of reactive minerals in the underlying bedrock, and alternative sources of base cations are discussed.

Hydrological Processes↗