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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico: Drivers, impacts, and unknowns

Ocean acidification (OA) has resulted in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry, which can disturb marine organisms and ecosystems. Despite its extensively populated coastline, many marine-dependent communities, and valuable economies, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remains a relatively understudied region with respect to acidification. In general, the warm waters of the GOM are better buffered from acidification compared to higher latitude seas, yet long-term acidification has been documented in several GOM regions. OA within the GOM is recognized as spatially variable, particularly within the coastal zone where numerous physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to carbonate chemistry dynamics. The historical progression of OA within the entire GOM is difficult to assess because only a few dedicated long-term monitoring sites have recently been established, and full-water column observations are limited. However, environmental drivers on smaller scales that affect GOM acidification were found to include freshwater, nutrient, and carbonate discharge from large rivers; ocean warming, circulation and residence times; and episodic extreme weather events. GOM marine ecosystems provide essential services, including coastline protection and carbon dioxide removal, and habitats for many marine species that are economically and ecologically important. However, organismal and ecosystem responses to OA are not well constrained for the GOM due to a lack of studies examining the specific effects of OA on regionally relevant species under contemporary and projected conditions. Tackling the vast number of remaining scientific unknowns in this region can be best coordinated through regional capacity networks, such as the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN), working to achieve a system-wide understanding of Gulf OA and its impacts. Here we synthesize the current peer-reviewed literature on GOM acidification across the ocean-estuarine continuum and identify critical knowledge, research, and monitoring gaps that require future attention.

Progress in Oceanography↗
USGS2011

Linking habitat quality with trophic performance of steelhead along forest gradients in the South Fork Trinity River Watershed, California

We examined invertebrate prey, fish diet, and energy assimilation in relation to habitat variation for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous rainbow trout) and rainbow trout in nine low-order tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River, northern California. These streams spanned a range of environmental conditions, which allowed us to use bioenergetics modeling to determine the relative effects of forest cover, stream temperature, season, and fish age on food consumption and growth efficiency. Evidence of seasonal shifts in reliance on aquatic versus terrestrial food sources was detected among forest cover categories and fish ages, although these categories were not robust indicators of O. mykiss condition and growth efficiency. Consumption estimates were generally less than 20% of maximum consumption, and fish lost weight in some streams during summer low-flow conditions when stream temperatures exceeded 15°C. Current 100-year climate change projections for California threaten to exacerbate negative growth patterns and may undermine the productivity of this steelhead population, which is currently not listed as endangered or threatened. To demonstrate the potential effect of global warming on fish growth, we ran three climate change scenarios in two representative streams. Simulated temperature increases ranging from 1.4°C to 5.5°C during the summer and from 1.5°C to 2.9C during the winter amplified the weight loss; estimated average growth for age-1 fish was 0.4–4.5 times lower than normal (low to high estimated temperature increase) in the warm stream and 0.05–0.8 times lower in the cool stream. We conclude that feeding rate and temperature during the summer currently limit the growth and productivity of steelhead and rainbow trout in low-order streams in the South Fork Trinity River basin and predict that climate change will have detrimental effects on steelhead growth as well as on macroinvertebrate communities and stream ecosystems in general.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2024

The where and why of large wood occurrence in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

Large wood (LW) plays important geomorphic and ecological roles in rivers and is widely used as a restoration tool. Changes to floodplain land use and historical removal have altered wood dynamics in fluvial systems globally. We know little about the distribution and dynamics of LW in great rivers (approximately >10 5 km 2 ) like the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers despite its ecosystem importance and use in restoration projects. We assessed LW occurrence data collected by the fisheries component of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program's Long Term Resource Monitoring element. We analysed 25 years of data collected across six reaches of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers that represented contrasting physiographic settings, and across four aquatic area types comprising gradients of hydrology, connectivity and geomorphology. We tested hypotheses on drivers of LW occurrence using generalised linear mixed effects models, where occurrence was predicted by reach- and local-scale environmental variables. Occurrence varied significantly across reaches and aquatic area types. In general, wood occurred more frequently upriver and in side channels compared to other aquatic areas. Large wood was most strongly predicted systemically by reach identity but not local-scale variables, underscoring the importance of broad-scale physiographic gradients in defining hydrogeomorphic processes. Floodplain forests and shoreline revetment were consistently important predictors across reaches. Our findings show that the spatial variability of LW occurrence reflects the physical variability of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. They also reveal the value in using geomorphic classifications as frameworks for understanding physical processes like LW dynamics because of their ability to contextualise site-scale conditions. The baseline understanding of LW abundance across different hydrogeomorphic gradients and scales presented here can give insight into how to more effectively target restoration efforts in great rivers and contribute to a broader understanding of LW dynamics where such studies have been lacking.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change. A principal purpose of the USGS shoreline change research is to develop a common methodology so that shoreline change analyses for the continental U.S., portions of Hawaii, and Alaska can be updated periodically in a consistent and systematic manner. The primary objectives of this study were to (1) develop and implement improved methods of assessing and monitoring shoreline movement, and (2) improve current understanding of the processes controlling shoreline movement. Achieving these ongoing long-term objectives requires research that (1) examines the original sources of shoreline data (for example, maps, air photos, global positioning system (GPS), Light Detection and Ranging (lidar)); (2) evaluates the utility of different shoreline proxies (for example, geomorphic feature, water mark, tidal datum, elevation), including the errors associated with each; (3) investigates bias and potential errors associated with integrating different shoreline proxies from different sources; (4) develops standard, uniform methods of shoreline change analysis; (5) examines the effects of human activities on shoreline movement and rates of change; and (6) investigates alternative mathematical methods for calculating historical rates of change and uncertainties associated with them. This report summarizes historical shoreline changes on the three most densely populated islands of the eight main Hawaiian Islands: Kauai, Oahu, and Maui. The report emphasizes the hazard from “chronic” (decades to centuries) erosion at regional scales and strives to relate this hazard to the body of knowledge regarding coastal geology of Hawaii because of its potential impact on natural resources, the economy, and society. Results are organized by coastal regions (island side) and sub-regions (common littoral characteristics). This report of Hawaii coasts is part of a series of reports that include text summarizing methods, results, and implications of the results. In addition, geographic information system (GIS) data used in the analyses are made available for download (Romine and others, 2012). The rates of shoreline change and products presented in this report are not intended for site-specific analysis of shoreline movement, nor are they intended to replace any official source of shoreline change information identified by local or State government agencies, or other Federal entities that are used for regulatory purposes. Rates of shoreline change presented herein may differ from other published rates, and differences do not necessarily indicate that the other rates are inaccurate. Some discrepancies are to be expected, considering the many possible ways of determining shoreline positions and rates of change, and the inherent uncertainty in calculating these rates. Rates of shoreline change presented in this report represent shoreline movement under past conditions and are not intended for use in predicting future shoreline positions or future rates of shoreline change.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2023

Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices

Global reconstructions of Pliocene climate provide important insights into how the climate system operates under elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels. These reconstructions have been used extensively in paleoclimate modeling experiments for comparison to simulated conditions, and as boundary conditions.Most previous work focused on the Late Pliocene interval known as the mid Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), the interval originally identified by the U.S. Geological Survey Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) as the PRISM interval or Mid Pliocene Warm Period. The term Mid Pliocene Warm Period is a misnomer due to changes to the geological time scale, and its use should be discontinued. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), now in its third phase, is expanding to include a focus on the Early Pliocene (Zanclean). PlioMIP3 experiments will allow comparison of environmental and climatic conditions before and after closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS). PlioMIP3 used the annual insolation pattern at the top of the atmosphere to determine time slices in the Zanclean that have orbital configurations that are most similar to modern. Two have been selected by PlioMIP and adopted by PRISM for inclusion in future studies: PRISM5.1 (4.474 Ma) and PRISM5.2 (4.870 Ma). Here we establish the stratigraphic framework for these Early Pliocene time slices and furnish information to help locate these intervals in proxy records of paleoenvironmental data using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, paleomagnetic stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and biochronology (calibrated planktic foraminifer and calcareous nannofossil events).

Stratigraphy↗
USGS1993

Status of the Landsat thematic mapper and multispectral scanner archive conversion system

The U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center (EDC) manages the National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive. This archive includes Landsat thematic mapper (TM) multispectral scanner (MSS) data acquired since 1972. The Landsat archive is an important resource to global change research. To ensure long-term availability of Landsat data from the archive, the EDC specified requirements for a Thematic Mapper and Multispectral Scanner Archive Conversion System (TMACS) that would preserve the data by transcribing it to a more durable medium. In addition to media conversion, hardware and software was installed at EDC in July 1992. In December 1992, the EDC began converting Landsat MSS data from high-density, open reel instrumentation tapes to digital cassette tapes. Almost 320,000 MSS images acquired since 1979 and more than 200,000 TM images acquired since 1982 will be converted to the new medium during the next 3 years. During the media conversion process, several high-density tapes have exhibited severe binder degradation. Even though these tapes have been stored in environmentally controlled conditions, hydrolysis has occurred, resulting in "sticky oxide shed". Using a thermostatically controlled oven built at EDC, tape "baking" has been 100 percent successful and actually improves the quality of some images.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗
USGS2008

Tidal marshes as disequilibrium landscapes? Lags between morphology and Holocene sea level change

Historical acceleration in the rate of global sea level rise and recent observations of marsh degradation highlight the importance of understanding how marshes respond to sea level change. Here, we use an existing numerical model to demonstrate that marsh morphology, and its effect on biological productivity and vertical accretion, could lag century-scale sea level rise rate oscillations by several decades. This suggests that marshes, and perhaps other intertidal environments, have not been in equilibrium with Holocene sea level. Additional results suggest that marshes have not yet fully responded to historical sea level acceleration. Consequently, marshes today may be out of equilibrium with modern rates of sea level rise, and further adjustment in the form of platform deepening and channel erosion could be expected. Under an accelerating sea level rise rate, the morphology and productivity of marshland will reflect environmental conditions of the past, and studies of marshes today will underestimate their response to sea level rise.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Occurrence of cyanobacteria and associated cyanotoxins in the Raritan Basin Water Supply Complex, New Jersey, August 2020 to August 2021

Harmful algal blooms, particularly cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs), have emerged as a substantial global concern because of their detrimental effects on water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. CyanoHABs can produce cyanotoxins, which pose serious health risks to humans and wildlife, such as liver failure and respiratory distress. This is particularly concerning for water bodies that serve as drinking-water sources. Recent trends indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyanoHABs globally. This study focuses on the Raritan Basin Water Supply Complex in New Jersey, where extensive monitoring was conducted from August 2020 to August 2021 to assess the presence of cyanobacteria and associated cyanotoxins. The research utilized a combination of discrete water-quality sampling, continuous monitoring, and solid phase adsorption toxin tracking (SPATT) to capture the dynamics of cyanotoxin occurrence and potential transport. Findings revealed a widespread presence of cyanobacteria and potential for cyanotoxin production, although actual cyanotoxin concentrations remained below drinking water and recreational thresholds. The study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the New Jersey Water Supply Authority (NJWSA) and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), highlighted the limitations of traditional sampling methods and emphasized that continuous monitoring can support better understanding of how cyanoHAB conditions change over time and in different places. Genetic testing included quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analyses, which demonstrated higher sensitivity, or increased findings of cyanobacteria compared to microscopy, indicating the potential for use in early warning systems. This research underscores that integrating various detection methods and hydrological data can enhance understanding of cyanotoxin dynamics in river systems.

New Jersey↗
USGS2010

Fix success and accuracy of GPS radio collars in old-growth temperate coniferous forests

Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry is used extensively to study animal distribution and resource selection patterns but is susceptible to biases resulting from data omission and spatial inaccuracies. These data errors may cause misinterpretation of wildlife habitat selection or spatial use patterns. We used both stationary test collars and collared free-ranging American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) to quantify systemic data loss and location error of GPS telemetry in mountainous, old-growth temperate forests of Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. We developed predictive models of environmental factors that influence the probability of obtaining GPS locations and evaluated the ability of weighting factors derived from these models to mitigate data omission biases from collared bears. We also examined the effects of microhabitat on collar fix success rate and examined collar accuracy as related to elevation changes between successive fixes. The probability of collars successfully obtaining location fixes was positively associated with elevation and unobstructed satellite view and was negatively affected by the interaction of overstory canopy and satellite view. Test collars were 33% more successful at acquiring fixes than those on bears. Fix success rates of collared bears varied seasonally and diurnally. Application of weighting factors to individual collared bear fixes recouped only 6% of lost data and failed to reduce seasonal or diurnal variation in fix success, suggesting that variables not included in our model contributed to data loss. Test collars placed to mimic bear bedding sites received 16% fewer fixes than randomly placed collars, indicating that microhabitat selection may contribute to data loss for wildlife equipped with GPS collars. Horizontal collar errors of >800 m occurred when elevation changes between successive fixes were >400 m. We conclude that significant limitations remain in accounting for data loss and error inherent in using GPS telemetry in coniferous forest ecosystems and that, at present, resource selection patterns of large mammals derived from GPS telemetry should be interpreted cautiously.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The U.S. Pacific Islands are culturally and environmentally diverse, treasured by the 1.9 million people who call them home. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their exposure and isolation, small size, low elevation (in the case of atolls), and concentration of infrastructure and economy along the coasts. A prevalent cause of year-to-year changes in climate patterns around the globe and in the Pacific Islands region is the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, air and ocean temperature, sea surface height, storminess, wave size, and trade winds. It is unknown exactly how the timing and intensity of ENSO will continue to change in the coming decades, but recent climate model results suggest a doubling in frequency of both El Niño and La Niña extremes in this century as compared to the 20th century under scenarios with more warming, including the higher scenario (RCP8.5). On islands, all natural sources of freshwater come from rainfall received within their limited land areas. Severe droughts are common, making water shortage one of the most important climate-related risks in the region. As temperature continues to rise and cloud cover decreases in some areas, evaporation is expected to increase, causing both reduced water supply and higher water demand. Streamflow in Hawai‘i has declined over approximately the past 100 years, consistent with observed decreases in rainfall. The impacts of sea level rise in the Pacific include coastal erosion, episodic flooding, permanent inundation, heightened exposure to marine hazards, and saltwater intrusion to surface water and groundwater systems. Sea level rise will disproportionately affect the tropical Pacific and potentially exceed the global average. Invasive species , landscape change, habitat alteration, and reduced resilience have resulted in extinctions and diminished ecosystem function. Inundation of atolls in the coming decades is projected to impact existing on-island ecosystems. Wildlife that relies on coastal habitats will likely also be severely impacted. In Hawaiʻi, coral reefs contribute an estimated $477 million to the local economy every year. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5°F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands region will experience annual bleaching before 2050. An ecosystem -based approach to international management of open ocean fisheries in the Pacific that incorporates climate-informed catch limits is expected to produce more realistic future harvest levels and enhance ecosystem resilience. Indigenous communities of the Pacific derive their sense of identity from the islands. Emerging issues for Indigenous communities of the Pacific include the resilience of marine-managed areas and climate-induced human migration from their traditional lands. The rich body of traditional knowledge is place-based and localized and is useful in adaptation planning because it builds on intergenerational sharing of observations. Documenting the kinds of governance structures or decision-making hierarchies created for management of these lands and waters is also important as a learning tool that can be shared with other island communities. Across the region, groups are coming together to minimize damage and disruption from coastal flooding and inundation as well as other climate-related impacts. Social cohesion is already strong in many communities, making it possible to work together to take action. Early intervention can lower economic, environmental, social, and cultural costs and reduce or prevent conflict and displacement from ancestral land and resources.

Report↗
USGS2025

Understanding and managing introduction pathways into protected areas in a changing climate

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework 2030 calls for the conservation of 30% of the world’s ecosystems, focusing on protecting areas vital to biodiversity, identifying and managing invasive species introduction pathways, and minimizing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. While protected areas (PAs) have historically limited the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native species, climate change is likely to increase their susceptibility to invasion. Yet we know little about how pathways may shift in the future, making it difficult for managers to plan appropriately. This paper explores how climate change may affect primary and secondary pathways of introduction and presents an adaptive management approach to avoid, minimize, and mitigate impacts. Climate change has influenced introduction pathways by modifying human behaviors (e.g., forced migration and shifting travel and vacation destinations), and by altering transportation routes, natural dispersal mechanisms, and the environmental conditions along these pathways and in donor and receiver regions. These changes increase the risk of non-native species introductions and their subsequent spread within PAs. Implementing climate-smart adaptive biosecurity, an iterative process that includes the incorporation of new technologies and perspectives, will become increasingly important for invasive species prevention and management of PAs as it provides flexibility in management response and maximizes positive outcomes when resources are limited.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2019

Migration routes, foraging behavior, and site fidelity of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) satellite tracked from a globally important rookery

The Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, USA (27.946°N, − 80.494°W) represents one of the largest loggerhead turtle ( Caretta caretta ) nesting sites in the Western Hemisphere. Surprisingly, little work has been conducted to determine females’ post-nesting migratory behavior and characteristics of their foraging areas. Between 2008 and 2017, satellite telemetry was used to trace the locations and movements of 45 post-nesting loggerhead turtles. A switching state-space model was employed to estimate the behavioral state of each location. Internesting, migrating and foraging activity periods were determined for 38 loggerheads based on the SSSM. Seven environmental variables were extracted from remote sensing imagery for each location to compare values among behaviors. Core primary foraging areas ranged in size from 5.89 to 4572.80 km 2 . Four foraging types (primary, secondary, seasonal, and loops) were observed. Most turtles resided at a primary foraging area year round. A few individuals conducted foraging loops away from a primary foraging area. Both seasonal and loop movements were associated with changes in sea surface temperature as turtles moved to avoid temperatures that could cause cold-stunning or mortality. Turtle size and nesting beach offshore currents may play a role in foraging area selection, and date of departure from the nesting beach may be linked to foraging destination. By making the connection among oceanic features, foraging areas, and the influence of environmental variables on these areas, it is possible to identify and characterize critically important feeding areas and migration corridors for loggerheads nesting on the east coast of Florida.

Marine Biology↗
USGS2017

Genomics of Arctic cod

The Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) is an abundant marine fish that plays a vital role in the marine food web. To better understand the population genetic structure and the role of natural selection acting on the maternally-inherited mitochondrial genome (mitogenome), a molecule often associated with adaptations to temperature, we analyzed genetic data collected from 11 biparentally-inherited nuclear microsatellite DNA loci and nucleotide sequence data from from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome b (cytb) gene and, for a subset of individuals, the entire mitogenome. In addition, due to potential of species misidentification with morphologically similar Polar cod (Arctogadus glacialis), we used ddRAD-Seq data to determine the level of divergence between species and identify species-specific markers. Based on the findings presented here, Arctic cod across the Pacific Arctic (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas) comprise a single panmictic population with high genetic diversity compared to other gadids. High genetic diversity was indicated across all 13 protein-coding genes in the mitogenome. In addition, we found moderate levels of genetic diversity in the nuclear microsatellite loci, with highest diversity found in the Chukchi Sea. Our analyses of markers from both marker classes (nuclear microsatellite fragment data and mtDNA cytb sequence data) failed to uncover a signal of microgeographic genetic structure within Arctic cod across the three regions, within the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, or between near-shore or offshore habitats. Further, data from a subset of mitogenomes revealed no genetic differentiation between Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas populations for Arctic cod, Saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis), or Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). However, we uncovered significant differences in the distribution of microsatellite alleles between the southern Chukchi and central and eastern Beaufort Sea samples of Arctic cod. Finally, using ddRAD-Seq data, we identified species-specific markers and in conjunction with mitogenome data, identified an Arctic cod x Polar cod hybrid in western Canadian Beaufort Sea. Overall, the lack of genetic structure among Arctic cod within the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas of Alaska is concordant with the absence of geographic barriers to dispersal and typical among marine fishes. Arctic cod may exhibit a genetic pattern of isolation-by-distance, whereby populations in closer geographic proximity are more genetically similar than more distant populations. As this signal is only found between our two fartherest localities, data from populations elsewhere in the species’ global range are needed to determine if this is a general characteristic. Further, tests for selection suggested a limited role for natural selection acting on the mitochondrial genome of Arctic cod, but do not exclude the possibility of selection on genes involved in nuclear-mitogenome interactions. Unlike previous genetic assessment of Arctic cod sampled from the Chukchi Sea, the high levels of genetic diversity found in Arctic cod assayed in this study, across regions, suggests that the species in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas does not suffer from low levels of genetic variation, at least at neutral genetic markers. The large census size of Arctic cod may allow this species to retain high levels of genetic diversity. In addition, we discovered the presence of hybridization between Arctic and Polar cod (although low in frequency). Hybridization is expected to occur when environmental changes modify species distributions that result in contact between species that were previously separated. In such cases, hybridization may be an evolutionary mechanism that promotes an increase in genetic diversity that may provide species occupying changing environments with locally-adapted genotypes and, therefore, phenotypes. Natural selection can only act on the standing genetic variation present within a population. Therefore, given its higher levels of genetic diversity in combination with a large population size, Arctic cod may be resilient to current and future environmental change, as high genetic diversity is expected to increase opportunities for positive selection to act on genetic variants beneficial in different environments, regardless of the source of that genetic variation.

OCS Study↗
USGS2013

Dynamics of land-use change and conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States: environmental and economic implications with linkages to rural community well-being

Rural America has changed dramatically over the last century, from having over half the population living in rural settings to only 20 percent residing in a rural area today, and outmigration of younger populations from rural communities remains a constant issue for local governing officials. A declining tax base and concurrent rising costs for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure add further challenges to policy decisions. Reduced enrollment has caused school closures or mergers. Farm consolidation and technical advances reduced the demand for local labor. On the positive side, however, record-high commodity prices have amplified farm income to new heights. The increased revenues can lead to farmers spending additional money within the local region, while at the same time increased transportation of products has impacted local infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Such dynamics present challenges for municipal leaders charged with promoting economic development and balanced spending, while at the same time maintaining the way of life and rural character that are so important to area residents. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States covers much of the Northern Great Plains, including parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and a small part of Montana, and extends across a broad swath of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The region is defined largely by its rural character but has experienced extensive land conversion over the last century, with agricultural areas replacing native prairie habitat. Additional pressures arise from oil and gas development, global markets for agricultural production, and increased demands for biofuel feedstocks. Record-high commodity prices increase pressure on the native prairie as farmers look for new cropland acres. The volatility of commodity prices has raised fears over the intensity of land conversion to row-crop agriculture, the economic health and resiliency of rural communities, and ultimately, population dynamics and outmigration of younger generations. Land-use pressures are increased by the exponential growth of oil and gas production in the region, where some 8,200 wells are now in production within the Williston Basin of North Dakota, accompanied by increased population pressures on housing and municipal services. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)--a cropland retirement program with close to 4.8 million acres enrolled in the PPR--faces uncertainty in upcoming legislative actions, with a large majority of property enrollments scheduled to expire by 2017. The CRP historically has provided improved habitat conditions, reductions of soil damage through erosion and loss of nutrients, and sequestration of millions of tons of atmospheric carbon. In turn, wildlife-related recreation levels have increased in many parts of the PPR, with money spent in local communities. Contemporary resource-management and rural-development planning increasingly emphasize the need for diversification and integration of resource-extractive industries with nonmarket-based recreational and amenity values that tie into quality of life. Ultimately, each community is unique in its environmental, social, economic, and fiscal endowments. One rural-development policy may work better in one community than another. In addition, rural-development issues such as migration, job growth, and taxes are diverse in themselves. The goal of this report is to qualitatively and quantitatively discuss the economic impacts of land-use decisions in rural areas, particularly in the PPR.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

Spectacled eider Somateria fischeri numbers have declined and they are considered threatened in accordance with the US Endangered Species Act throughout their range. We synthesized the available information for spectacled eiders to construct deterministic, stochastic, and metapopulation models for this species that incorporated current estimates of vital rates such as nest success, adult survival, and the impact of lead poisoning on survival. Elasticities of our deterministic models suggested that the populations would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival and that the reductions in adult female survival related to lead poisoning were locally important. We also examined the sensitivity of the population to changes in lead exposure rates. With the knowledge that some vital rates vary with environmental conditions, we cast stochastic models that mimicked observed variation in productivity. We also used the stochastic model to examine the probability that a specific population will persist for periods of up to 50 y. Elasticity analysis of these models was consistent with that for the deterministic models, with perturbations to adult female survival having the greatest effect on population projections. When used in single population models, demographic data for some localities predicted rapid declines that were inconsistent with our observations in the field. Thus, we constructed a metapopulation model and examined the predictions for local subpopulations and the metapopulation over a wide range of dispersal rates. Using the metapopulation model, we were able to simulate the observed stability of local subpopulations as well as that of the metapopulation. Finally, we developed a global metapopulation model that simulates periodic winter habitat limitation, similar to that which might be experienced in years of heavy sea ice in the core wintering area of spectacled eiders in the central Bering Sea. Our metapopulation analyses suggested that no subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Millennial soil retention of terrestrial organic matter deposited in the Bengal Fan

The abundance of organic carbon (OC) in vegetation and soils (~2,600 PgC) compared to carbon in the atmosphere (~830 PgC) highlights the importance of terrestrial OC in global carbon budgets. The residence time of OC in continental reservoirs, which sets the rates of carbon exchange between land and atmosphere, represents a key uncertainty in global carbon cycle dynamics. Retention of terrestrial OC can also distort bulk OC- and biomarker-based paleorecords, yet continental storage timescales remain poorly quantified. Using “bomb” radiocarbon (14C) from thermonuclear weapons testing as a tracer, we model leaf-wax fatty acid and bulk OC 14C signatures in a river-proximal marine sediment core from the Bay of Bengal in order to constrain OC storage timescales within the Ganges-Brahmaputra (G-B) watershed. Our model shows that 79-83% of the leaf-waxes in this core were stored in continental reservoirs for an average of 1,000-1,200 calendar years, while the remainder was stored for an average of 15 years. This age structure distorts high-resolution organic paleorecords across geologically rapid events, highlighting that compound-specific proxy approaches must consider storage timescales. Furthermore, these results show that future environmental change could destabilize large stores of old - yet reactive - OC currently stored in tropical basins.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change

Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a social process of adaptation planning, and how that process might ultimately be broadened to engage a more diverse set of partners. We engaged participants through a combination of informal meetings, workshops, and other collaborative interactions to explore how the conservation community perceives and pursues its various missions, and how that community might confront the threats and opportunities in its future. Coproduction of knowledge and meaning were facilitated by collaborative scenario planning and strategic planning evaluation, which illuminated how the conservation community is integral to the broader governance of the region and highlighted how responses to forces of change are mediated through local culture, economics, and politics. We suggest an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objectives of both social and ecological systems might be prioritized in tandem, rather than narrowly focusing on environmental protection without consideration of the social landscape. Ultimately, adaptive capacity depends on the ability to act collectively, and social capital, trust, and organization greatly influence the capacity to act. Thus, we conclude that the presence of strong social networks, coordination and deliberation among diverse stakeholders, mechanisms for experiential feedback, and emphasis on social learning are key elements needed to build adaptive capacity. Central to the evolving perspective of governance of the commons is recognition that social and ecological systems are coupled; the issues and problems of one cannot be addressed without considering the consequences for the other. Moreover, a dominant theme emerging from our research and that of other scholars is the importance of culture and place attachment, which generates social cohesion and facilitates problem solving. These ideas have important implications for when, where, and how stakeholders are engaged to address the rapid changes being experienced by social-ecological systems.

South Carolina↗