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USGS2021

A framework for evaluating earthquake early warning for an infrastructure network: An idealized case study of a northern California rail system

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems provide a few to tens of seconds of warning before shaking hits a site. Despite the recent rapid developments of EEW systems around the world, the optimal alert response strategy and the practical benefit of using EEW are still open-ended questions, especially in areas where EEW systems are new or have not yet been deployed. Here, we use a case study of a rail system in California’s San Francisco Bay Area to explore potential uses of EEW for rail systems. Rail systems are of particular interest not only because they are important lifeline infrastructure and a common application for EEW around the world, but also because their geographically broad yet networked infrastructure makes them almost uniquely well suited for utilizing EEW. While the most obvious potential benefit of EEW to the railway is to prevent derailments by stopping trains before the arrival of shaking, the lead time for warnings is usually not long enough to significantly reduce a train’s speed. In reality, EEW’s greatest impact is preventing derailment by alerting trains to slow down or stop before they encounter damaged track. We perform cost-benefit analyses of different decision-making strategies for several EEW system designs to find an optimal alerting strategy. On-site EEW provides better outcomes than source-parameter-based EEW when warning at a threshold of 120 gal (the level of shaking at which damage might occur) regardless of false alarm tolerance. A source-parameter-based EEW system with a lower alerting threshold (e.g., 40 gal) can reduce the exposure to potentially damaged track compared to an on-site system alerting at 120 gal, but a lower alerting threshold comes at the cost of additional precautionary system stops. The optimal EEW approach for rail systems depends strongly on the ratio of the cost of stopping the system unnecessarily to the potential loss from traversing damaged tracks.

California↗

USGS2025

Greater sage-grouse seasonal habitat associations: A review and considerations for interpretation and management applications

Habitat features needed by wildlife can change in composition throughout the year, particularly in temperate ecosystems, leading to distinct seasonal spatial-use patterns. Studies of species-habitat associations therefore often focus on understanding relationships within discrete seasonal periods with common goals of prediction (e.g., habitat mapping) and inference (e.g., interpreting model coefficients). Across the range of the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) of western North America, the increasing use of high-frequency tracking devices has led to a surge in habitat association studies covering multiple temporal periods and spatial extents. We reviewed the literature for seasonal habitat association studies corresponding to the second and third orders of selection (Johnson 1980). Our objectives were to summarize the methodological approaches used to estimate habitat associations to aid understanding in cross-study comparisons and identify common habitat features reported as selected or avoided within different seasonal periods. We reviewed 71 second- and third-order studies published from 2007–2023 that evaluated covariates collected in a geographic information system (GIS) and modeled probability of selection or intensity of use. The most common study design evaluated a single level of selection (third-order) and was multi-scale (i.e., covariates were measured at varying spatial grains). The most common model approach estimated habitat associations using resource selection functions (RSFs) fit with logistic regression. Studies mostly focused on the breeding periods and winter, but all seasons throughout the annual cycle were covered. There was clear support for selection of sagebrush and avoidance of trees and rugged terrain across seasons, and strong selection of mesic conditions in summer. However, habitat associations for most covariates were mixed, with proportionally equivalent selection and avoidance reported, even within the same seasons. Different factors hampered cross-study comparisons, including variation in study design, but additional contributors likely included important context-dependent habitat associations, such as functional responses to changing habitat availability. We suggest collaborative studies leveraging multiple datasets can help improve seasonal habitat inference by removing the effects of variable study designs.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

James Dwight Dana and John Strong Newberry in the US Pacific Northwest: The roots of American fluvialism

Recognition of the power of rivers to carve landscapes transformed geology and geomorphology in the late nineteenth century. Wide acceptance of this concept—then known as “fluvialism”—owes to many factors and people, several associated with exploration of western North America. Especially famous are the federal geographic and geologic surveys of the US Southwest with John Wesley Powell and Grove Karl Gilbert, which produced key insights regarding river processes. Yet earlier and less-known surveys also engaged young geologists embarking on tremendously influential careers, particularly the 1838–1842 US Exploring Expedition with James Dwight Dana and the 1853–1855 railroad surveys including John Strong Newberry. Informed but little constrained by European and British perspectives on landscape formation, Dana and Newberry built compelling cases for the erosive power of rivers, largely from observations in the US Pacific Northwest. They seeded the insights of the later southwestern surveys, Dana by his writings and station at Yale and his hugely influential Manual of Geology , published in 1863, and Newberry by becoming the first geologist to explore the dramatic river-carved canyons of the Southwest and then a forceful proponent of the federal surveys spotlighting the erosional landscapes. Newberry also gave Gilbert his start as a geologist. Although Dana and Newberry are renowned early American geologists, their geomorphic contributions were overshadowed by the works of Powell, Gilbert, and William Morris Davis. Yet Dana and Newberry were the first ardent American proponents of fluvialism, providing strong roots that in just a few decades transformed western geology, roots nourished in large measure by the geologically fertile landscapes of the US Pacific Northwest.

Journal of Geology↗

USGS2015

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse ( C. urophasianus ), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE = 0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2022

Thermophysical and compositional properties of paleobedforms on Mars

Bedforms on Earth and Mars are often preserved in the rock record in the form of sedimentary rock with distinct cross-bedding. On rare occasions, the full-surface geometry of a bedform can be preserved through burial and lithification. These features, known as paleobedforms, are found in a variety of geographic locations on Mars. Evidence in the morphology of paleobedforms, such as the retention of impact craters and steep erosional scarps, suggests that these features are well-lithified and capable of withstanding prolonged weathering and erosion. Here, we present results from thermophysical and compositional analyses on a subset of the best preserved paleobedform candidate fields on Mars. Thermophysical modeling elucidates the changes these bedforms underwent from their unconsolidated, particulate nature to their currently observed properties. Certain paleobedforms have elevated thermal inertias (e.g., ∼300–500 J·m −2 ·s −1/2 ·K −1 ) when compared with modern bedforms (∼250 J·m −2 ·s −1/2 ·K −1 ), and modeling indicates that they have cement volumes of 0.8%–1.5% even as high as 30%. However, most paleobedform candidates have unexpectedly low thermal inertia when compared with modern dunes. Additionally, compositional analyses reveal a range of spectral characteristics within paleobedforms (e.g., primary and secondary alteration products). These features add to the already existing class of Martian surfaces in which thermal inertia does not seem to correspond to erodibility, cohesion, or mechanical strength. Studying paleobedforms with both raised and nonraised thermal inertia has provided new insights into lithification on Mars and constrained the environmental conditions leading to the formation of these enigmatic features.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗

USGS2014

HiRISE observations of new impact craters exposing Martian ground ice

Twenty small new impact craters or clusters have been observed to excavate bright material inferred to be ice at mid and high latitudes on Mars. In the northern hemisphere, the craters are widely distributed geographically and occur at latitudes as low as 39°N. Stability modeling suggests that this ice distribution requires a long-term average atmospheric water vapor content around 25 precipitable microns, more than double the present value, which is consistent with the expected effect of recent orbital variations. Alternatively, near-surface humidity could be higher than expected for current column abundances if water vapor is not well-mixed with atmospheric CO 2 , or the vapor pressure at the ice table could be lower due to salts. Ice in and around the craters remains visibly bright for months to years, indicating that it is clean ice rather than ice-cemented regolith. Although some clean ice may be produced by the impact process, it is likely that the original ground ice was excess ice (exceeding dry soil pore space) in many cases. Observations of the craters suggest small-scale heterogeneities in this excess ice. The origin of such ice is uncertain. Ice lens formation by migration of thin films of liquid is most consistent with local heterogeneity in ice content and common surface boulders, but in some cases nearby thermokarst landforms suggest large amounts of excess ice that may be best explained by a degraded ice sheet.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2018

Greater sage-grouse vital rates after wildfire

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have been subject to long-term and continuing declines in population and habitat since European settlement of western North America. Increased wildfire activity constitutes a primary threat to the species in western portions of their range, with documented declines in wildfire-affected populations. Following a 187,000-ha wildfire in southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, USA, we used global positioning system (GPS) telemetry to monitor nest initiation, nest survival, nesting habitat, and adult survival of female sage-grouse during 2013 and 2014. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate daily nest survival and monthly adult survival in relation to temporal patterns, physiological characteristics of females, and habitat and land-cover characteristics. We assessed habitat characteristics using geographic information system (GIS)-derived measures of post-fire habitat condition and land cover. Nest initiation rate following the fire was comparable to that observed in unaltered habitat. We observed nesting rates of 90% and 100% during 2013 and 2014, respectively, and renesting rates of 23% and 57% during the same years. Daily nest survival was consistently low in comparison to rates observed in concurrent studies in the region, for first nests during both years, and for second nests during 2013, but survival markedly increased for second nests during 2014. Sage-grouse generally did not leave the fire perimeter to nest, with 64% and 73% of nests located in the fire boundary during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Approximately 27% of nests were located in burned habitat during 2013, and 20% of nests in 2014 were located in burned habitat. Adult survival varied by month, and although patterns of monthly survival were similar between years, monthly survival rates were significantly reduced from the beginning of the study through the end of the first post-fire growing season. Our results indicate that sage-grouse continue to use fire-affected habitat in the years immediately following wildfire and sage-grouse experienced lower nest survival and adult female survival than other populations during the same period.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Evolution of puma lentivirus in bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in North America

Mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) throughout North and South America are infected with puma lentivirus clade B (PLVB). A second, highly divergent lentiviral clade, PLVA, infects mountain lions in southern California and Florida. Bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) in these two geographic regions are also infected with PLVA, and to date, this is the only strain of lentivirus identified in bobcats. We sequenced full-length PLV genomes in order to characterize the molecular evolution of PLV in bobcats and mountain lions. Low sequence homology (88% average pairwise identity) and frequent recombination (1 recombination breakpoint per 3 isolates analyzed) were observed in both clades. Viral proteins have markedly different patterns of evolution; sequence homology and negative selection were highest in Gag and Pol and lowest in Vif and Env. A total of 1.7% of sites across the PLV genome evolve under positive selection, indicating that host-imposed selection pressure is an important force shaping PLV evolution. PLVA strains are highly spatially structured, reflecting the population dynamics of their primary host, the bobcat. In contrast, the phylogeography of PLVB reflects the highly mobile mountain lion, with diverse PLVB isolates cocirculating in some areas and genetically related viruses being present in populations separated by thousands of kilometers. We conclude that PLVA and PLVB are two different viral species with distinct feline hosts and evolutionary histories.

North America↗

USGS1994

Identification of larvae: The zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha ), quagga mussel ( Dreissena rosteriformis bugensis ), and Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea )

There are presently four freshwater bivalves in the United States that produce larvae or veligers commonly found in the water column: two forms of Asian clams and two species of dreissenids. Portions of the geographic range of three of these bivalves, one species of Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ), zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ), and quagga mussels ( Dreissena rosteriformis bugensis ), overlap, causing problems with larval identification. To determine which characteristics can be used to separate larval forms, adult Asian clams, quaggas, and zebra mussels were brought into the laboratory and induced to spawn, and the resulting larvae were reared. Hybrids between quaggas and zebra mussels were also produced, but not reared to maturity. Characteristics allowing for the most rapid and accurate separation of larvae were hinge length, shell length/height, shell shape, shell size, and the presence or absence of a foot and velum. These characteristics were observed in laboratory-reared larvae of known parentage and field-caught larvae of unknown parentage. In most cases, larvae of the Asian clam can be readily separated from those produced by either type of dreissenid on the basis of shell size and presence of a foot. Separating the gametes and embryos of the two types of dreissenids is not possible, but after shell formation, most of the larval stages can be distinguished. Hinge length, shell length/height, and the similarity in size of the shell valves can be used to separate straight-hinged, umbonal, pediveliger, and plantigrade larvae. Quagga × zebra mussel hybrids show characteristics of both parents and are difficult to identify.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2003

A multiscaled model of southwestern willow flycatcher breeding habitat

The southwestern willow flycatcher (SWFL; Empidonax traillii extimus) is an endangered songbird whose habitat has declined dramatically over the last century. Understanding habitat selection patterns and the ability to identify potential breeding areas for the SWFL is crucial to the management and conservation of this species. We developed a multiscaled model of SWTL breeding habitat with a Geographic Information System (GIS), survey data, GIS variables, and multiple logistic regressions. We obtained presence and absence survey data from a riverine ecosystem and a reservoir delta in south-central Arizona, USA, in 1999. We extracted the GIS variables from satellite imagery and digital elevation models to characterize vegetation and floodplain within the project area. We used multiple logistic regressions within a cell-based (30 X 30 m) modeling environment to (1) determine associations between GIS variables and breeding-site occurrence at different spatial scales (0.09-72 ha), and (2) construct a predictive model. Our best model explained 54% of the variability in breeding-site occurrence with the following variables: vegetation density at the site (0.09 ha), proportion of dense vegetation and variability in vegetation density within a 4.5-ha neighborhood, and amount of floodplain or flat terrain within a 41-ha neighborhood. The density of breeding sites was highest in areas that the model predicted to be most suitable within the project area and at an external test site 200 km away. Conservation efforts must focus on protecting not only occupied patches, but also surrounding riparian forests and floodplain to ensure long-term viability of SWTL. We will use the multiscaled model to map SWTL breeding habitat in Arizona, prioritize future survey effort, and examine changes in habitat abundance and quality over time.

Arizona↗

USGS2001

A geostatistical approach to predicting sulfur content in the Pittsburgh coal bed

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is completing a national assessment of coal resources in the five top coal-producing regions in the US. Point-located data provide measurements on coal thickness and sulfur content. The sample data and their geologic interpretation represent the most regionally complete and up-to-date assessment of what is known about top-producing US coal beds. The sample data are analyzed using a combination of geologic and Geographic Information System (GIS) models to estimate tonnages and qualities of the coal beds. Traditionally, GIS practitioners use contouring to represent geographical patterns of "similar" data values. The tonnage and grade of coal resources are then assessed by using the contour lines as references for interpolation. An assessment taken to this point is only indicative of resource quantity and quality. Data users may benefit from a statistical approach that would allow them to better understand the uncertainty and limitations of the sample data. To develop a quantitative approach, geostatistics were applied to the data on coal sulfur content from samples taken in the Pittsburgh coal bed (located in the eastern US, in the southwestern part of the state of Pennsylvania, and in adjoining areas in the states of Ohio and West Virginia). Geostatistical methods that account for regional and local trends were applied to blocks 2.7 mi (4.3 km) on a side. The data and geostatistics support conclusions concerning the average sulfur content and its degree of reliability at regional- and economic-block scale over the large, contiguous part of the Pittsburgh outcrop, but not to a mine scale. To validate the method, a comparison was made with the sulfur contents in sample data taken from 53 coal mines located in the study area. The comparison showed a high degree of similarity between the sulfur content in the mine samples and the sulfur content represented by the geostatistically derived contours. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2007

Molecular ecology of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus): Genetic and natural history variation in a hybrid zone

Several geographically distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages of the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) have been documented in North America. Individuals from 2 of these lineages, an eastern and a western form, co-occur within maternity colonies in Colorado. The discovery of 2 divergent mtDNA lineages in sympatry prompted a set of questions regarding possible biological differences between haplotypes. We captured big brown bats at maternity roosts in Colorado and recorded data on body size, pelage color, litter size, roosting and overwintering behaviors, and local distributions. Wing biopsies were collected for genetic analysis. The ND2 region of the mtDNA molecule was used to determine lineage of the bats. In addition, nuclear DNA (nDNA) intron 1 of the ??-globin gene was used to determine if mtDNA lineages are hybridizing. Eastern and western mtDNA lineages differed by 10.3% sequence divergence and examination of genetic data suggests recent population expansion for both lineages. Differences in distribution occur along the Colorado Front Range, with an increasing proportion of western haplotypes farther south. Results from nDNA analyses demonstrated hybridization between the 2 lineages. Additionally, no outstanding distinctiveness was found between the mtDNA lineages in natural history characters examined. We speculate that historical climate changes separated this species into isolated eastern and western populations, and that secondary contact with subsequent interbreeding was facilitated by European settlement. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2012

Paleomagnetism of the Late Triassic Hound Island Volcanics: Revisited

The collision and accretion of the Alexander terrane profoundly influenced the geologic history of Alaska and western Canada; however, the terrane's displacement history is only poorly constrained by sparse paleomagnetic studies. We studied the paleomagnetism of the Hound Island Volcanics in order to evaluate the location of the Alexander terrane in Late Triassic time. We collected 618 samples at 102 sites in and near the Keku Strait, Alaska, from the Late Triassic Hound Island Volcanics, the Permian Pybus Formation, and 23-Ma gabbroic intrusions. We found three components of magnetization in the Hound Island Volcanics. The high-temperature component (component A) resides in hematite and magnetite and was found only in highly oxidized lava flows in a geographically restricted area. We think it is primary, or acquired soon after eruption of the lavas, principally because the directions pass a fold test. The paleolatitude indicated by this component (19.2° ± 10.3°) is similar to those determined for various portions of Wrangellia, consistent with the geologic interpretation that the Alexander terrane was with the Wrangellia terrane in Late Triassic time. We found two overprint directions in the Hound Island Volcanics. Component B was acquired 23 m.y. ago due to intrusion of gabbroic dikes and sills. This interpretation is indicated by the similarity of upper-hemisphere directions in the Hound Island Volcanics to those in the gabbro. Component C, found in both the Hound Island Volcanics and the Permian Pybus Formation, is oriented northeast and down, fails a regional fold test, and was acquired after regional deformation around 90 to 100 Ma. This overprint direction yields a paleolatitude similar to, but slightly higher than, slightly older rocks from the Coast Plutonic Complex, suggesting that the Alexander terrane was displaced 17° in early Late Cretaceous time. The occurrence of these two separate overprinting events provides a satisfying explanation of the earlier puzzling results from the Hound Island Volcanics (Hillhouse and Grommé, 1980). Finally, great-circle analysis of the paleomagnetic data from the Pybus Formation suggests the Alexander terrane may have been in the northern hemisphere in Permian time.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes ( n = 42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval = 0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities ( n = 5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2010

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade -1 , while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade -1 , respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Coherence between coastal and river flooding along the California coast

Water levels around river mouths are intrinsically determined by sea level and river discharge. If storm-associated coastal water-level anomalies coincide with extreme river discharge, landscapes near river mouths will be flooded by the hydrodynamic interactions of these two water masses. Unfortunately, the temporal relationships between ocean and river water masses are not well understood. The coherence between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels at six California river mouths across different climatic and geographic regions was examined. Data from river gauges, wave buoys, and tide gauges from 2007 to 2014 were integrated to investigate the relationships between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels near the mouths of the Eel, Russian, San Lorenzo, Ventura, Arroyo Trabuco, and San Diego rivers. Results indicate that mean and extreme coastal water levels during extreme river discharge are significantly higher compared with background conditions. Elevated coastal water levels result from the combination of nontidal residuals (NTRs) and wave setups. Mean and extreme (>99th percentile of observations) NTRs are 3–20 cm and ∼30 cm higher during extreme river discharge conditions, respectively. Mean and extreme wave setups are up to 40 cm and ∼20–90 cm higher during extreme river discharge than typical conditions, respectively. These water-level anomalies were generally greatest for the northern rivers and least for the southern rivers. Time-series comparisons suggest that increases in NTRs are largely coherent with extreme river discharge, owing to the low atmospheric pressure systems associated with storms. The potential flooding risks of the concurrent timing of these water masses are tempered by the mixed, semidiurnal tides of the region that have amplitudes of 2–2.5 m. In summary, flooding hazard assessments for floodplains near California river mouths for current or future conditions with sea-level rise should include the temporal coherence of fluvial and oceanic water levels.

California↗

USGS2010

Revisions of rump fat and body scoring indices for deer, elk, and moose

Because they do not require sacrificing animals, body condition scores (BCS), thickness of rump fat (MAXFAT), and other similar predictors of body fat have advanced estimating nutritional condition of ungulates and their use has proliferated in North America in the last decade. However, initial testing of these predictors was too limited to assess their reliability among diverse habitats, ecotypes, subspecies, and populations across the continent. With data collected from mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), elk ( Cervus elaphus ), and moose ( Alces alces ) during initial model development and data collected subsequently from free-ranging mule deer and elk herds across much of the western United States, we evaluated reliability across a broader range of conditions than were initially available. First, to more rigorously test reliability of the MAXFAT index, we evaluated its robustness across the 3 species, using an allometric scaling function to adjust for differences in animal size. We then evaluated MAXFAT, rump body condition score (rBCS), rLIVINDEX (an arithmetic combination of MAXFAT and rBCS), and our new allometrically scaled rump-fat thickness index using data from 815 free-ranging female Roosevelt and Rocky Mountain elk ( C. e. roosevelti and C. e. nelsoni ) from 19 populations encompassing 4 geographic regions and 250 free-ranging female mule deer from 7 populations and 2 regions. We tested for effects of subspecies, geographic region, and captive versus free-ranging existence. Rump-fat thickness, when scaled allometrically with body mass, was related to ingesta-free body fat over a 38–522-kg range of body mass ( r 2 = 0.87; P < 0.001), indicating the technique is remarkably robust among at least the 3 cervid species of our analysis. However, we found an underscoring bias with the rBCS for elk that had >12% body fat. This bias translated into a difference between subspecies, because Rocky Mountain elk tended to be fatter than Roosevelt elk in our sample. Effects of observer error with the rBCS also existed for mule deer with moderate to high levels of body fat, and deer body size significantly affected accuracy of the MAXFAT predictor. Our analyses confirm robustness of the rump-fat index for these 3 species but highlight the potential for bias due to differences in body size and to observer error with BCS scoring. We present alternative LIVINDEX equations where potential bias from rBCS and bias due to body size are eliminated or reduced. These modifications improve the accuracy of estimating body fat for projects intended to monitor nutritional status of herds or to evaluate nutrition's influence on population demographics.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2010

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗